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Post Post #150 (ISO) » Sun Jul 11, 2021 3:15 am

Post by Menalque »

My logic is like:

100 — launching a nuke
90 — covertly invading the Crimea
80 — raytheon
70 — boeing
60 — ramping up military production
50 — cancelling a peace treaty
40 — supporting a transition to democracy diplomatically
30 — signing an economic cooperation treaty
20 — signing a peace treaty
10 — Woodstock and a ton of hippies
0 — full global communism

If we all agree can we submit right then?
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Post Post #151 (ISO) » Sun Jul 11, 2021 6:00 am

Post by Farren »

I'd agree with submitting right.
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Post Post #152 (ISO) » Sun Jul 11, 2021 6:20 am

Post by lilith2013 »

yep on board with right
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Post Post #153 (ISO) » Sun Jul 11, 2021 9:22 am

Post by Morning Tweet »

oki!!
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Post Post #154 (ISO) » Sun Jul 11, 2021 10:12 am

Post by Datisi »

right has been locked in.

card:
peacefulwar-like

clue: boeing

Spoiler: drum roll please...
Image


eight and a xalxe's guess of
45
scores 0 points...

ermine rainfall's guess of
right
scores 1 point!

team eight and a xalxe
[5 points]
  1. Xalxe
  2. Sirius9121
  3. gelsomina
  4. northsidegal
  5. GuiltyLion
ermine rainfall
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  2. Menalque
  3. Farren (psychic)
  4. Iconeum
  5. Morning Tweet (current representative)
sending a card to Farren. he may not post until the clue round is over.
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Post Post #155 (ISO) » Sun Jul 11, 2021 10:24 am

Post by gelsomina »

hm, i was much more worried about leading everyone to guess too high than too low; here's what i sent datisi along with the clue:

my first thought was a country but this would be a lot easier if the number was ~95 and i could just say 'united states' as opposed to trying to think of a 62% war-like country; then i tried to think of historical and fictional civilizations that might be a better clue; then i slept; then i tried to think of it as like, peaceful vs agressive elements of a song? but without being able to relisten i wasn't confident enough in any of them actually being 40/60 as opposed to just seeming that way in my head and also it might cause confusion in trying to apply the scale to a song, and then i tried to think about businesses that have both civilian and military contracts, i assume raytheon and lockheed would be 90ish and google might be guessed too low so boeing seems like my best bet for the clue though i have no idea on actual revenue percentage or anything and i worry that my teammates may think of these businesses in the same way i do - that they are 100% war-like for profiting from any defense contracts - but i also have not thought of a better clue, so
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Post Post #156 (ISO) » Sun Jul 11, 2021 12:55 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

hah that's interesting cause I thought if the answer was more war-like than peaceful you would have said something like Lockheed or Northrop Grumman instead of Boeing

I think my mistake was assuming war-like would mean something closer to parties that explicitly initiate wars, maybe I'm too indoctrinated by the military industrial complex
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Post Post #157 (ISO) » Mon Jul 12, 2021 12:38 am

Post by Datisi »

here's the card for
ermine rainfall
:

unimportantessential


and the clue that your psychic, Farren, provided is:
Continuing a streak of annual physical exams


your team has (expired on 2021-07-16 13:40:00) to guess where the target is. it’s now up to you to discuss and determine where
Continuing a streak of annual physical exams
is on the spectrum from 0 to 100. 0 represents “unimportant” and 100 represents “essential".

Morning Tweet
is your team’s current representative. remember to provide your final answer in this format:
guess: x
where x is between 0 and 100.
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Post Post #158 (ISO) » Mon Jul 12, 2021 1:48 am

Post by Iconeum »

above 60 but below 80 is my first instinct
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Post Post #159 (ISO) » Mon Jul 12, 2021 2:01 am

Post by Menalque »

Big disagree, I think it’s v likely under 50

I’d say maybe 30 or so?

I don’t think that physical exams are that important to do ~in general~ I definitely don’t think doing them annually is important, but the “continuing a streak” makes it sound like having the streak is slightly important which makes me bump it up a tiny bit

Could maybe see 35
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Post Post #160 (ISO) » Mon Jul 12, 2021 2:01 am

Post by Menalque »

Big disagree, I think it’s v likely under 50

I’d say maybe 30 or so?

I don’t think that physical exams are that important to do ~in general~ I definitely don’t think doing them annually is important, but the “continuing a streak” makes it sound like having the streak is slightly important which makes me bump it up a tiny bit

Could maybe see 35
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Post Post #161 (ISO) » Mon Jul 12, 2021 9:03 am

Post by Morning Tweet »

also kinda depends on your age, i think as you get older there are a lot more reasons to get checked for early signs of stuff often so in that sense it's essential

But yeah i dont think everyone has physical exams yearly or finds it that important so it can't be extremely high. Extremely high would have been, like, "breathing". But at the same time I think if you were going to give a hint for something below 50, you wouldn't chance it with something that *some* people will consider essential, like doctor checkups

i agree with mena that the wording seems like Farren was putting emphasis on not missing an exam which makes it sound like it's of importance to do

I think if it were in the 30-40 range he wouldn't have said something that can be construed as important and it'd be a lot more clear tbh

My guess is 70ish tbh because for a lot of people getting seen by a doctor is important (or is just important to them personally), but that's not true of everyone and if it were really high you could pick something more essential.
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Post Post #162 (ISO) » Mon Jul 12, 2021 7:06 pm

Post by Iconeum »

i'd be happy to meet menalque somewhere in the middle and go for a 45 ish guess?
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Post Post #163 (ISO) » Thu Jul 15, 2021 12:13 am

Post by Datisi »

bump?
I will straight up disregard all reason if you have a PR dream again. You can come back and be like, “I dreamt that Locke is a N2 Bulletproof Multitasking Cop and Self-Targeting Doctor,” and I will go, “Okay, Locke kill it is then.”
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Post Post #164 (ISO) » Thu Jul 15, 2021 6:07 am

Post by Morning Tweet »

Sure ill go w/ 45 -- ill input the final guess later tonight
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Post Post #165 (ISO) » Thu Jul 15, 2021 7:39 pm

Post by Morning Tweet »

Guess 45
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Post Post #166 (ISO) » Thu Jul 15, 2021 10:21 pm

Post by Datisi »

ermine rainfall
has locked in
45
.
eight and a xalxe
has (expired on 2021-07-18 11:30:00) to lock in a left/right guess.

unimportantessential


clue:
Continuing a streak of annual physical exams


0 represents “unimportant” and 100 represents “essential". please place your guess according to whether you think "
Continuing a streak of annual physical exams
" is closer to 0 or closer to 100 than 45.
Xalxe
is your team’s current representative.
I will straight up disregard all reason if you have a PR dream again. You can come back and be like, “I dreamt that Locke is a N2 Bulletproof Multitasking Cop and Self-Targeting Doctor,” and I will go, “Okay, Locke kill it is then.”
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Post Post #167 (ISO) » Fri Jul 16, 2021 4:48 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

So one thought I had was that a streak of annual exams implies that you've been doing them for some time. I think an annual exam becomes more important with how long it's been since your last one, if you haven't been in a decade it'd be more essential than if you see your Doctor all the time.

But then again he said "continuing a streak" instead of like "the 7th annual exam in a row" so I'm not sure if I'm really correct in thinking that way.

My gut says right, I think a medical examination is right of 50, but probably just barely, like this is maybe a 55 for me. Open to hear other perspectives
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Post Post #168 (ISO) » Fri Jul 16, 2021 4:52 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

Maybe also he might have meant that the process of going to annual exams is what's essential, rather than any particular annual exam in isolation. In that context I'd say right
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Post Post #169 (ISO) » Fri Jul 16, 2021 7:50 am

Post by gelsomina »

fairly confident with guessing right here

like there are a lot of possible reasons one might have a streak of annual physical exams and there's nothing here to indicate that the reasoning behind the previous ones has changed so this feels in the 70-80 range to me

could be mandatory for occupation/academy/athletics (though would likely be on the 3 weeks to a month side as opposed to annual if the latter two)
could be checking for something specific due to family history or whatever other reason
could be for peace of mind
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Post Post #170 (ISO) » Fri Jul 16, 2021 2:30 pm

Post by Xalxe »

It feels middling to right to me; continuing a streak feels less essential than "going for the first time in a while," but annual exams are still important. Plus our odds are better on the right.
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Post Post #171 (ISO) » Sat Jul 17, 2021 5:14 am

Post by Xalxe »

Oh I'm the representative still!

Right
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Post Post #172 (ISO) » Sat Jul 17, 2021 6:02 am

Post by Datisi »

right has been locked in.

card:
unimportantessential

clue: Continuing a streak of annual physical exams

Spoiler: drum roll please...
Image


ermine rainfall's guess of
45
scores 2 points!

eight and a xalxe's guess of
right
scores 1 point!

team eight and a xalxe
[6 points]
  1. Xalxe
  2. Sirius9121
  3. gelsomina
  4. northsidegal (psychic)
  5. GuiltyLion (current representative)
ermine rainfall
[8 points]
  1. lilith2013
  2. Menalque
  3. Farren
  4. Iconeum
  5. Morning Tweet
sending a card to northsidegal. she may not post until the clue round is over. also the order of the representatives is a little wonky, but i'm going by "everyone gets a chance to be the representative" rather than the way described in the ruleset.
I will straight up disregard all reason if you have a PR dream again. You can come back and be like, “I dreamt that Locke is a N2 Bulletproof Multitasking Cop and Self-Targeting Doctor,” and I will go, “Okay, Locke kill it is then.”
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Post Post #173 (ISO) » Sat Jul 17, 2021 9:19 am

Post by Datisi »

here's the card for
eight and a xalxe
:

mundaneexciting


and the clue that your psychic, northsidegal, provided is:
winning hundreds of millions in the lottery


your team has (expired on 2021-07-21 22:30:00) to guess where the target is. it’s now up to you to discuss and determine where
winning hundreds of millions in the lottery
is on the spectrum from 0 to 100. 0 represents “mundane” and 100 represents “exciting".

GuiltyLion
is your team’s current representative. remember to provide your final answer in this format:
guess: x
where x is between 0 and 100.
I will straight up disregard all reason if you have a PR dream again. You can come back and be like, “I dreamt that Locke is a N2 Bulletproof Multitasking Cop and Self-Targeting Doctor,” and I will go, “Okay, Locke kill it is then.”
~M
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Post Post #174 (ISO) » Sat Jul 17, 2021 9:50 am

Post by Xalxe »

Obviously very right, specifying "hundreds of millions" is an interesting choice, thoughts?
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- On this day in history: mundanity, and terror, and food, and love, and trees -
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