Newbie 1867 - Game Over

[Ircher]

VOTE: vulcan logician
Usernames shouldn't have spaces -_-

@Etromin creppy is taken on a lot of sites, so 3 Ps it was

You are right about that. Elsewhere on the internet, I have it as all one word, but for some reason I put a space in there when registering on this site. Some would say, "not alignment indicative"... but I disagree. I'm gonna lean town on you for picking up on an obvious scumtell.

VOTE: Harambey

VOTE: Vulcan[/b]

[Ircher]

Ugh... VOTE: Vulcan

[Ircher]

I would like to point out that the healthiest game state is an active one.

So, how about we start by giving some reads? Currently, I scumread Vulcan for their town read on Crepppy as well as joining the ever popular Haram wagon.

[Ircher]

There was one guy on that wagon! How is that "ever popular"?

And Crepppy is obv-town. Why can't you see that? I think it's pretty clear to the rest of us.

Ah, you are right about the wagon. Still, the reason you gave for townreading Crepppy is one I strongly disagree with, especially when you assert they are obvtown. Also, only you stated that Crepppy was obvtown. If we were talking a light townread, I could buy that; however, I do not buy a hard townread on someone based solely on a comment made during RVS.

WARNING: Haram is at L-1.

@Ali - Explain please.
Pedit: Nvm my warning

@Mod: V/LA til Saturday; I still will be able to post some tomorrow but not very long.

[Ircher]

hello

VOTE: Harambey

Wow this is scummy af

VOTE: Alciel

Honestly, I feel like you jumped off too soon, but okie-dokie.
Now, yes, I agree that a naked L-1 vote is fairly scummy, but.... playing Devil’s advocate here... We are in RVS here for the most part. How can you be sure they are scum trying to do a quicklynch versus a lazy townie? This is of course an argument that basically boils down to WIFOM, but I want you to consider the alternative explanations for this action here. Remember, just because something appears “scummy” does not necessarily mean it came from scum. Town can just as easily make the same mistakes as scum, perhaps more so because scum are generally more careful.

(That said, I still want to hear from them their explanation for their action.)
Pedit: Why don’t you ask him? But I think he was based on claiming Crepppy was “obvtown” to everyone else.

[Ircher]

I doubt you’ll get much from 1 vote but okay. About the ‘Hello’ — If we consider it to be an RVS vote (which is reasonable), then I don’t read it really as alignment-indicative; it’s about the same as writing nothing. But we can agree to disagree there.

[Ircher]

I know I said I would post today... But I really got caught up with doing school work and didn’t get a chance to.

[Ircher]

Other fairly equivalent votes I could see myself making are Alciel and creppy. I don't believe that either have them have done more than the bare minimum to play the game, which is sometimes a sign of scum who is uncomfortable.

This feels like a very weak read esp. coming from the IC. To clarify, I mean that I would expect a more thorough or convincing reason why you. would support wagons on those you named. But, it is early game, so honestly, there isn’t much to go by, but still, I expected some higher quality reads than “they are not doing anything and are likely lurking scum”.

[Ircher]

Random

Vote: crepppy

for having too many Ps in their name.

I think bold is okay to use, but just FYI (since it's your first game) you can use vote tags too... type:

Code: Select all

 [vote]"the person's name"[/vote] 

.

You may have already known, but just in case you didn't, now you do.

VOTE: your vote here[/ v] (without spaces) also works, for the record.

Currently, I scumread Vulcan for their town read on Crepppy as well as joining the ever popular Haram wagon.

1. I'm assuming that you find Vulcan's townread on crepppy scummy because it's a weak and unsubstantiated one. What do you think Vulcan as scum gains from faking that specific townread? In general, I'd imagine scum fake townreads in order to fake scumhunt and blend in; do you really think that Vulcan as scum thinks that people will read his townread on creppy for picking up on the obvious scumtell that is "having a space in his username" and buy it as an earnest and genuine piece of scumhunting?

Ah, you are right about the wagon. Still, the reason you gave for townreading Crepppy is one I strongly disagree with, especially when you assert they are obvtown. Also, only you stated that Crepppy was obvtown. If we were talking a light townread, I could buy that; however, I do not buy a hard townread on someone based solely on a comment made during RVS.

2. Vulcan's initial statement was that he leaned town on crepppy, which qualifies as a "light townread to me". Why did you scumread it if the reasoning was something that you could believe? Do you disagree that his initial read on crepppy was a light townread or am I missing something here?

I also have trouble believing that you could buy a light townread on crepppy for that reasoning. If the reasoning is genuine, then it's absolutely atrocious and is on par with the worst reasoning I've ever seen - I just heavily doubt that it's genuine.

1. Well, yes, that is what it basically amounted to then. And no, I didn’t think people would buy it. At the same time, you never know with newbies, so it really doesn’t hurt to look into things like that a little closer. There are, after all, those who play the “newbie town” card.
2. You are right in a way, but again, I wanted him to clarify his read strength. Newbies don’t generally play like experienced players; they are much more volatile and do stuff that doesn’t make sense. Given the game state then, yes, such a read is atrocious, but that does not mean I cannot buy it from coming from town.

[Ircher]

"He didn't state a reason, so I voted for him" - why do you have a policy of voting people who don't state reasons?
"Didn't state mine since no one really asked him why for his vote" - I don't understand what other people's reactions to him has to do with how you approach him here; it seems a bit backwards to me. Like, I could see if you were voting for someone and didn't feel like stating reasons because they've already been said but I don't understanding voting someone and NOT giving reasons because no one else seemed to see or care about the same thing you did. Help me out?

His vote didn't have a reason compared to others that at least posted something though nothing concrete, it's my first game and I'm still testing the waters, I'm also waiting if someone would question my lack of reasoning since I don't know if not giving reasoning is that common or not.

I mean, it really depends on the player. Some people (much to my annoyance) never give reasons and others do all the time. That said, I think it is preferable to give reasons so others can follow your thought process.

[Ircher]

"He didn't state a reason, so I voted for him" - why do you have a policy of voting people who don't state reasons?
"Didn't state mine since no one really asked him why for his vote" - I don't understand what other people's reactions to him has to do with how you approach him here; it seems a bit backwards to me. Like, I could see if you were voting for someone and didn't feel like stating reasons because they've already been said but I don't understanding voting someone and NOT giving reasons because no one else seemed to see or care about the same thing you did. Help me out?

His vote didn't have a reason compared to others that at least posted something though nothing concrete, it's my first game and I'm still testing the waters, I'm also waiting if someone would question my lack of reasoning since I don't know if not giving reasoning is that common or not.

Giving (good) reasoning will often make others trust you more than when you don't give any reasoning at all.
My vote was a random vote as we were in RVS, which stands for Random Voting Stage. In my opinion, random votes don't necessarily need reasoning. I mean, it's random, what would a reasoning be for a random vote?
Most people say something else like 'Hello everyone!' or a 'joke reasoning' as to why their random voted player should get more votes. Eventually there will be one player that has the most votes at some point. That person will then usually speak up so that the players have something to discuss about and over time, people will form reads. Then players will argue about each others' reads and posts and get someone lynched. This all started with the random voting stage.
I was that 'player' this time that got the most votes. So I had to speak to persuade people I'm a Townie (which, in fact, I am) and vote elsewhere. At this point, most players will start to discuss my recent posts, and probably the ones of Nachomamma and I guess yours too.

I don't know how familiar you are with mafia games so I approached you here as if you're pretty new to the game. I hope this is okay as how it is.

Than, I’m not really impressed with your recent posts (but maybe I’m judging biased): you basically gave a weak reason for not participating (which Nacho already covered), made a few more comments along that vein, and explain RVS in this post and again try to defend yourself from your earlier actions. You gave a read on Crepppy that was “not participating, possibly lurking scum”, and also mentioned I think one of Alciel posts as “odd” (I’ll have to check that one) which are probably the two most useful things you have done so far this game.

[Ircher]

The wagon formed on Harambe on page 1 is not going to do a good job of pressuring him. The first wagon to form usually dissolves, so scum!Harambe would have nothing to fear from it. I do like to use day 1 to put pressure on people though. There are not many ways to get info for town on day 1, but putting questions to people under threat of lynch is a viable strategy for town.

My townread of crepppy was a joke. Anyone taking it seriously strikes me as odd for doing so. Look at the reasoning I used.

More to come from me. Stay tuned.

You go from something that can be interpreted as a light townread/joke to saying Crepppy was obvtown to saying that you never townread Crepppy in the first place. Please clarify this inconsistency.

[Ircher]

"Oh yeah, Ircher is V/LA, let's all put him to L-1 to give him a scare when he comes back."

Probably scum will be on the Ircher wagon bcuz going from 0 votes to L-1 during V/LA will probably give an awkward response from Ircher. I'm not gonna do that for the sake of him being V/LA. It's good to get a reaction from him but his reaction will considerably be weaker than usual and scum will make use of that. No ty.

I'll instead go with VOTE: Alciel because I still think his posts are awkward.

Tbqh, I honestly don’t care because I get wagoners (and MLed) all the time, so its pretty standard. I have to admit though, I’m not comfortable with either Draynth’s or Vulcan’s jump onto it.

[Ircher]

@Ali - Explain please.
Pedit: Nvm my warning

He didn't state a reason so I voted for him, same reason why you're asking me thid. Didn't state mine since no one really asked him why for his vote.

This isn't really helpful by the way, Townies want to be as transparent as possible whenever possible. It makes you easier to read and work out what your motivations are. Scum will be intentionally obtuse and awkward about their intentions.

If you see someone doing something you consider to be scummy then definitely bring it up, even if you haven't seen anyone else do so.

Quite hypocritical, is it not, coming from the one who refuses to elaborate on their “status vote”.

[Ircher]

A Draynth wagon would be worthwhile imo. Not a lot of content and what I consider a somewhat suspicious leap onto my wagon. (Granted, the reasoning is somewhat valid, just not necessarily “fair”.
VOTE: Draynth

[Ircher]

My townread of crepppy was a joke. Anyone taking it seriously strikes me as odd for doing so. Look at the reasoning I used.

I'll hop on the Ircher wagon. It's SUPER awkward to take me seriously there.

VOTE: Ircher

I don't like this. In the first post, vulcan logician is taking a temperature of the room to see if anyone else agrees with him. And once someone else votes Ircher first, only then does he vote and his analysis of Ircher goes from "odd" to "SUPER awkward."

A Draynth wagon would be worthwhile imo. Not a lot of content and what I consider a somewhat suspicious leap onto my wagon. (Granted, the reasoning is somewhat valid, just not necessarily “fair”.
VOTE: Draynth

Why did you choose to vote Draynth over vulcan logician?

Primarily because Haram suggested we move attention to someone who wasn't posting that much. Vulcan has posted a good amount of content wehreas Draynth has not.

[Ircher]

Another fact is we kinda have already pressured vulcan, and again, Draynth is a bad pick for that. But you are right that on a second inspection, Draynth and vulcan have done the same.

[Ircher]

VOTE: Vulcan
Actually, I really prefer this currently (in light of what I said earlier). Partially because the game state seems to have gotten a standstill plus my vote on Draynth wasn't really accomplishing anything.

[Ircher]

You go from something that can be interpreted as a light townread/joke to saying Crepppy was obvtown to saying that you never townread Crepppy in the first place. Please clarify this inconsistency.

It was a joke. There wasn't a light townread because the light townread was a joke. There wasn't an obvtown read because the obvtown read was a joke. Is this really the best reason you have for scumreading someone so far?

(We also have the wagon hop, but for the most part, yes, it is.)

[Ircher]

(To clarify, it wasn't clear it was all a joke; I was under the impression it was initially a joke but somehow became an actual townread.)

[Ircher]

That was worded wrong; initially I thought it was likely a joke but decided to pressure anyway. When Vulcan kept reasserting it, I thought he was being serious about it, and stopped considering the “he’s joking” possibility.

[Ircher]

Yeah, except newbies tend to be a bit on the wild side, so I cannot and would not rule out the possibility completely. (Not that being unpredictable is a bad thing...)

[Ircher]

(And that is probably true...)

[Ircher]

It could be alignment-indicative... Likely not so much in this case though; my vote on Vulcan is primarily based on the other factor, not that event.

[Ircher]

Do you consider the above to still be the case; i.e.: do you still scumread me based on the above or is your vote now for a different reason?

[Ircher]

Well, I honestly have nothing better atm, so my vote stays. But I do agree that this was more or less a misunderstanding.

[Ircher]

Isn't like everyone in this game basically a null read right now?

V/LA Tomorrow; Be back Friday afternoon

[Ircher]

For Ircher: As you said you'll be V/LA for a day, I'll be fine if you post it slightly later than others.

Okay, I'm gonna be honest and state that since like the first 2 or 3 days of this game, I've had very little interest in this thread. But, anyway, I'll try to do what you requested tomorrow.

[Ircher]

Sorry, I'm still kinda getting reads on this game. The reads below go up to 100.
​

Spoiler: Reads to post 100

Confirmed Town

(From my perspective) (98%-100% Confidence)
Ircher (100%) - Role PM

Likely Town

(85%-97% Confidence)

Leaning Town

(60%-84% Confidence)

Nachomamma8

(+65%) - He makes many good observations when he posts. I also like how he acknowledges alternative views (such as in 98) even if he does not necessarily agree with them.

Null

(0% - 30% Confidence; No/Very Weak Read)

Etromin

(+8%) - 70 has a town!vibe to it.

Crepppy

Ventriloquist

(0%) - No read currently.

Draynth

(-3%) - I feel 51 across as super accusatory, perhaps a bit too much.

Alciel

(-5%) - RVS L-1 vote is notable but not alignment-indicative (21). Explanation in 29 fits the "This is an RVS vote" narrative, but it also raises the question why didn't seem to consider the L-1 aspect of their vote. 44 seems consistent with the reasons they give earlier, but I'm starting to get a scum!vibe overall (not a strong one--very weak, but there) from the voting logic being used.

Ofrhz

(-20%) - I really don't understand why Ofrhz appears to not really acknowledge the possibility of Alciel's vote being RVS; in particular, they are still voting Alciel even at 63 with seemingly zero thought towards the idea.

Neutral

(31%-59% Confidence; Mixed Read)

Harambey180

(+45%) - I really like how he responded to his wagon in 35. Some decent reads in 69; however, I agree with Draynth that there really was no need to try to slow down/stop my wagon while I was gone. In general, his posts have been good, and I really like how he is trying to keep the gamestate moving.

Vulcan Logician

(-55%) - His beginning was fine, and I definitely read too much into his joke. That aside though, 53 is scummy in multiple ways, and is enough by itself to warrant a full-fledged scumread. 56 seems pointless, and not just pointless in a null way, but actually a scummy way.

Leaning Scum

(60%-75% Confidence)

​​

Likely Scum

(76%-100% Confidence)

Spoiler: How to read this readslist

Players are placed in different sections based on my confidence in the read expressed as a percentage. A positive percentage indicates that I leans towards town on a player whereas a negative percentage indicates I lean towards scum on a player. Please note that the Null an Neutral sections contain both townreads and scumreads and you must look a the sign of the percentage in parenthesis to determine which way I lean.

Confidence ratings are rough estimates and are relative to one another. In addition, they tend to be scored on a logarithmic scale versus a linear scale; in other words, the difference between 0% and 30% tends to be greater than ther difference between 30% and 60%.

[Ircher]

1. In 21:

hello

VOTE: Harambey

I would like to note that while this is an RVS vote, this also is an L-1 vote. The people on the RVS Harambey wagon are: Draynth (#6), Vulcan (#9), Ofrhz (#12), and Alciel (21). Honestly, this is probably all irrelevant information, it is just something to note. (It is also a good lesson to at least glance at the thread before placing a vote though that does kinda defeat the purpose of RVS being "random".)

2. In 29:

He didn't state a reason so I voted for him, same reason why you're asking me thid. Didn't state mine since no one really asked him why for his vote.

Looking at this again, this is a bit more than I expected. Now, I think it is still safe to say for the most part that Alciel's vote could still be considered RVS; however, if Alciel had read some of the thread beforehand, they would have probably noticed that their vote would be L-1, or at the very least, they would have noticed that Harambey already had a fairly large wagon. Again though, this is more or less not indicative of alignment.

3. In 30:

I'm not really sure the wagon here is actually putting pressure on, though, because it's clearly a pressure wagon surely that defeats the purpose?

Yeah, but the threat of being lol-lynched is generally enough to get conversation going.

4. In 34:

Vote: Harambey180

I think the fact that he hasn't posted yet is strange. He's been active onsite for a while after the L-1 wagon formed, and I think that it's likelier that he is scum who is avoiding posting for a little while in the hopes that what's mostly just a baseless wagon will die out than town who saw the wagon form and had nothing to say/could find nothing to address.

Okay, one other thing I want to note about this post is that again, it is a L-1 vote. The reasoning isn't necessarily good, but it isn't necessarily bad/unreasonable either. Mainly, it is simply a bit on the thin side.

5. In 35:

Why would I try to 'defend' myself against a wagon this early on? By staying silent I also won't give scum more information / opportunities to throw more shade in me. And the more I talk, the more I'm putting myself in a losing position based on the past. Because of how I verbalize things, I guess.

I mean, it is a reach, but one reason to 'defend' yourself would be because scum can (and occassionally have, esp. newbies trying to play the newbie lynchbait card) lolhammer. That aside, I don't think you really had anything to defend against, so I think staying silent probably is the best move here actually--it makes you not appear super jumpy or paranoid. At the same time, I disagree that staying silent denies scum information that will help them and that won't help town, yet I don't find this line of reasoning unreasonable.

6. In 41:

Alciel's post #29 is really odd and I don't get what point he's trying to bring across.

How exactly is this odd? So far, Alciel's voting reasons seem reasonable even if a bit on the stretch side. (If this is answered later in the thread, you can ignore this question.)

7. In 44:

His vote didn't have a reason compared to others that at least posted something though nothing concrete, it's my first game and I'm still testing the waters, I'm also waiting if someone would question my lack of reasoning since I don't know if not giving reasoning is that common or not.

Despite what I said earlier, with each post Alciel makes, Alciel's original vote becomes worse...

8. In 51:

VOTE: Ircher
You don't buy vulcan having a strong townread on Crepppy for it, I don't buy you not getting that vulcan wasn't serious

This comes across as super accusatory; I'm not sure though how I would interpret it from an alignment perspective.

9. In 53:

I'll

hop on

the Ircher wagon. It's

SUPER awkward

to take me seriously there.

VOTE: Ircher

Sure, I agree it was awkward, but

super awkward

? That aside (which probably isn't relevant), why are you

hopping on

to the Ircher wagon... Versus perhaps leading it, esp. if you find my read on you to be something that comes from scum. What this really sounds like is that you think Draynth's vote gives you "permission" to vote me without appearing suspicious.

I still got my eye on Harambe though. Perhaps he clammed up when the wagon gained momentum.

I can see scum!Harambe being like "Oh shit! They took me to L-1 already!" And not knowing what to say.

But we can

always wagon him later if need be

. For now, let's examine Ircher.

First of all, Harambey is an SE meaning they are experienced. Even if you disagree with their initial defense for not speaking, his later posts

clearly

show that he is a competent player. What I mean by this is that the probability that scum!Harambey reacts in the way they did (and are unsure of what to do) is next to zero. It is perhaps about as unrealistic as my expectations regarding your read on crepppy, so I guess it isn't necesssarily impossible. Also, what is with this "always wagon him later if need be" part? I mean, it is fine if you scumread Harambey; however, this comes across more as to an excuse for you to switch wagons on a whim if there isn't much public support for an Ircher wagon.

10. In 54:

Probably scum will be on the Ircher wagon bcuz going from 0 votes to L-1 during V/LA will probably give an awkward response from Ircher.

Where does the notion that the wagon will instantly jump to L-1 come from?

11. In 56:

Harambe has a point. Wagoning him when he's gone is pointless.

If you agree, why do you not move your vote elsewhere? (Perhaps back on Harambey who you apparently scumread since they were around at the time...)

12. In 63:

No, it wouldn’t be the same. A naked vote indicates some level of comfort with the vote because the person didn’t feel the need to defend it. But tacking on a “hello” indicates that the person didn’t feel comfortable naked voting yet felt like they had to say something, but couldn’t come up with anything less lighthearted than hello. It’s awk

I really disagree when the vote in question has a high likelihood of being an RVS vote. "Hello" reinforces the idea that the vote in question is an RVS vote. Now, a question for you--while your reasons seem

okay

, why is it that you appear to ignore the idea that it could be an RVS vote despite this being mentioned? As in, why are you persisting with this angle with the new given information?

13. In 105:

Are you for real? Seriously, I didn't think that hard about it. It was RVS. As I said before, a wagon formed on page 1 is bound to dissolve. It's not even a good way to put pressure on scum because they know it's RVS.

This doesn't even address the primary focus of Nacho's read; it addresses the side-issue of the Harambey vote. Also, he didn't necessarily say that it began a serious vote, just that it became a serious vote after some time. (See your 53; you strongly suggest that Harambey is a scumread for you.)

14. In 107:

There are two ways to interpret my earlier statements. As you have done, putting all sorts of motives in where there are none -OR- as someone who is pretty much clueless, moving his votes around because he has NO INFORMATION to go on.

I am just going to point out that mafia is hardly a black-and-white game, and that there is almost certainly more ways than the two you suggested to interpret your earlier statements.

15. In 111, Ventriloquist posts what basically amounts to a list of observations followed by a vote on Etronim -

I have no qualms with what is stated in the post itself. What I find somewhat strange is what is not stated: you have made a good list of observations, but you have not attributed much in terms of reads to them.

16. In 115:

Here's somthing I don't get: why make the joke in the first place? It doesn't seem necessary and trying to crack non-obvious jokes on page 1 seems to be a bit of a stupid/risky thing to do.

To be quite honest, I am not sure where you were planning to go with this....

17. In 127:

"A somewhat suspicious leap onto my wagon"
I was the first vote and you literally say the reasoning is valid

It was a gut read; the way it came across seemed a bit suspicious.

It's because it feels like a forced scumread to me.
In my opinion town are generally less likely to misinterpret what vulcan said. This is all purely based on my own experiences though.

I wouldn't call it forced, although I would call it reachy, esp. later on.

I acknowledge that a lot of scum won't be willing to back down like this but it also feels like scum realising the pressure they're drawing as a result of a push (see post below)
Maybe I'm just searching for reasons to scumread ircher here

I think you are at this point.

18. In 130:

Why in the world did that post 3 times

Probably because you hit the submit button thrice... Here's a tip: don't press the submit button multiple times if it is slow to submit; you will simply submit the post multiple times.

19. In 132:

Yeah I think L-1 votes especially can be uncomfortable to drop because of how much scrutiny they can receive, and I think by saying hello, you were trying to mitigate that discomfort. It gutpinged me as scummy tbh. I do concede this is may be more personality indicative than scum indicative though

Okay, but you are still voting Alciel and haven't really elaborated on why that is the case given the above statement.

20. In 133:

townreading this for the defensiveness mixed with disbelief. Also the “didn’t think that hard about it” is kinda towny

This is weak imo.

21. In 134:

I agree with this, I think scum are very careful and will do their best to think hard about every post they make

I don't agree with it, but since both you and ofrhz think the same here, I guess I ought to elaborate, yes? So, the reason why I don't find it towny is because 1) it didn't address the case presented against Vulcan really (their read progression) and 2) scum can, have, and will use AtE arguments, and this is definitely one of them. Even if I were to concede that the post was null (which I'm not necessarily doing by the way), I don't see how pursuing an aggressive tone registers as town-indicative.

22. In 141:

Do you consider the above to still be the case; i.e.: do you still scumread me based on the above or is your vote now for a different reason?

You know, I love how Vulcan pretty much ignores this, though I am almost certain they were still on when I made this post. (7:45 PM for their post versus 7:53 PM for my post.)

23. In 144:

What would you say if someone asked you about the most important part of mafia?

This really wouldn't help get the game going, but I appreciate the effort in keeping the game active.

Still, I will answer this: there is no

most

important part of mafia.
An active game state is important; without it, scum can easily lurk their way to victory and present fence reads that they cannot really be held accountable to.
It is also important to scumhunt; if you are not looking for scum, there is a problem, and you are not advancing town's win condition.
Yet at the same time, one must also townhunt. Having no townreads is about as bad as having no scumreads, esp. in the latter parts of the game: townreads help town PoE who the scum are.
Finally, if you do a little research, you will quickly find that a 7-2 mountainous game is very scumsided. Thus, night play is just as important to winning as day play is.

24. In 148:

Are you still scumreading vulcan for his jump onto your wagon?

More or less at the time. Is there any particular reason you ask?

25. I know it is not a good idea to postulate teams pre-flip; however, I really think that an Ofrhz/Vulcan team is likely. They both seem scummy to me individually, yet at the same time, their interactions with each other come across as natural scum interactions. (They could also be TvT or TvS as well, but perhaps I should say that they make sense from an SvS perspective as well.)

26. In 158:

To keep the rest short, plenty of his posts are very short and Ircher seems to change their mind occasionally.

I don't have any major qualms with the rest of your read on me (in part because I think it is reasonable and partially true); however, this part of your read is playstyle-related and thus null. (If anything, changing my mind occasionally is more likely a towntell than a scumtell for me, but I think we'll just keep this at null.)

27. In 174:

Nonetheless, putting others in the spotlights by blaming them for lurking, while Draynth himself has already lurked more than 1 1/2 days on three occasions so far, is very suspicious to me.

Oh come on, we all apply double standards at times. I think you are reading into hypocrisy a bit too much.

28. In 180:

Saying that I'm lurking in the same way that ventril, alciel or etromin are lurking is completely unfair.

I mean, I'm leaning towards town on you right now, but I think your activity this game could actually be described as active lurking, which is worse than just lurking. I say this because you seem to be in the thread semi-regularly (maybe not regularly, but more than some other lurkers), yet whenever you post, I don't feel like you are bringing too much more to the game and are being a bit on the passive side. (I mainly townread you for gut-related reasons, so it isn't a really strong read at all.)

[Ircher]

@Mod, Eh, maybe I should've spoilered that actually. Can you do that for me?

​

Spoiler: Reads to this post

Confirmed Town

(From my perspective) (98%-100% Confidence)
Ircher (100%) - Role PM

Likely Town

(85%-97% Confidence)

Leaning Town

(60%-84% Confidence)

Nachomamma8

(+78%) - He makes many good observations when he posts. I also like how he acknowledges alternative views (such as in 98) even if he does not necessarily agree with them. 164 to 167 are really good, analytical posts.

Null

(0% - 30% Confidence; No/Very Weak Read)

Draynth

(+21%) - I feel 51 across as super accusatory, perhaps a bit too much. 127 comes across much better in my opinion. 145 also comes across as a town!post. Honestly, I'm leaning town here, but there just doesn't seem enough from Draynth to warrant placing them in the neutral read category versus having them as a null read. Also, the possibility that slot is active lurking exists.

Etromin

(+8%) - 70 has a town!vibe to it.

Crepppy

Ventriloquist

(-7%) - 111 is a decent post except for one really glaring issue: little to no reads. It is more a list of observations, which is fine, but I feel that you need to accompany those observations with some kind of reads (eg: town, townlean, null, scumlean, scum).

Alciel

(-8%) - RVS L-1 vote is notable but not alignment-indicative (21). Explanation in 29 fits the "This is an RVS vote" narrative, but it also raises the question why didn't seem to consider the L-1 aspect of their vote. 44 seems consistent with the reasons they give earlier, but I'm starting to get a scum!vibe overall (not a strong one--very weak, but there) from the voting logic being used. It would be nice for Alciel to begin trying a little harder at developing reads (as of 112), but since I later state in the thread that most of my reads were basically null or close to it, I can't exactly harp too much on this.

Neutral

(31%-59% Confidence; Mixed Read)

Harambey180

(+55%) - I really like how he responded to his wagon in 35. Some decent reads in 69; however, I agree with Draynth that there really was no need to try to slow down/stop my wagon while I was gone. In general, his posts have been good, and I really like how he is trying to keep the gamestate moving. (Notably, he has done this many times so either he is scum trying to be a town leader (unlikely, but possible), or he is town trying to ensure town's victory.)

Ofrhz

(-32%) - I really don't understand why Ofrhz appears to not really acknowledge the possibility of Alciel's vote being RVS; in particular, they are still voting Alciel even at 63 with seemingly zero thought towards the idea. Now, they acknowledge this idea (or something else that suggests it wasn't scum-indicative) in 132, but they don't move their vote and don't really elaborate too much more on their read there.

Leaning Scum

(60%-75% Confidence)

Vulcan Logician

(-65%) - His beginning was fine, and I definitely read too much into his joke. That aside though, 53 is scummy in multiple ways, and is enough by itself to warrant a full-fledged scumread. 56 seems pointless, and not just pointless in a null way, but actually a scummy way. Maybe I'm just biased, but I also have some issues with 105 as well: it fails to address Nacho's primary point (Vulcan's read progression on me) and instead focuses on the secondary aspect of the Harambey voting becoming serious. Now, I can't know for sure, but I am fairly convinced that Vulcan ignores immediately answering my question in 141.

​​

Likely Scum

(76%-100% Confidence)

Spoiler: How to read this readslist

Players are placed in different sections based on my confidence in the read expressed as a percentage. A positive percentage indicates that I leans towards town on a player whereas a negative percentage indicates I lean towards scum on a player. Please note that the Null an Neutral sections contain both townreads and scumreads and you must look a the sign of the percentage in parenthesis to determine which way I lean.

Confidence ratings are rough estimates and are relative to one another. In addition, they tend to be scored on a logarithmic scale versus a linear scale; in other words, the difference between 0% and 30% tends to be greater than ther difference between 30% and 60%.

[Ircher]

The colours used in post 199 cannot be easily read with the MafSilver theme.

Eh, sorry, I'll try to remember that in the future.

[Ircher]

V/LA tommorrow

Sorry, I wasn't planning on this; it just came up. I might not be on much Sunday either because I have a test to study for.

[Ircher]

Vote Count 1.8

vulcan logician (2) - Ircher, Nachomamma8
Ventriloquist (2) - Etromin, Draynth
Harambey180 (2) - northsidegal, ofrhz
Ircher (1) - vulcan logician
Etromin (1) - Ventriloquist

Not voting (1) - Harambey180


With nine players alive, it takes five votes to lynch.

Deadline for Day One is Wednesday, 16th May, 09.00. BST, (in (expired on 2018-05-16 09:00:00)).

northsidegal replaces Alciel.

[Ircher]

I'm about halfway through typing up a readslist with explanations but I'm out of time so have a summary instead

Town

Harambey, Nachomama, Draynth
---
Ventriloquist, Alciel/NSG
---
Vulcan, Ircher, Etromin

Scum

You would join a Vulcan wagon, esp. near deadline, correct?

[Ircher]

I stilll think the Vulcan Lynch is the way to go unless we want to flashwagon outside:
Vulcan
Ircher
Harambey
Ofrhz
Nacho

[Ircher]

I continue to see vulcan as super-noob-Town (with all the respect for vulcan, I can't help it). Super-noob, but Town. Now the question is: do I want a super-noob player in the game? Besides, is there a player that has a higher chance of flipping red? There's not really a much better option there either. Would a flip on vulcan give information (besides what happens in the night phase)? Yeah I think so.

Intent to hammer

I have to make sure I'm not mistaken and trapping myself. Probably by ISO'ing but that won't happen today and if it happens tomorrow, it's going to be late.

I mean, I have to admit that I think the possibility of Vulcan being newb!town exists (with a decent probability); however, I haven't really seen much better because half the game pretty much lurks. (And I've been kinda actively lurking...)

[Ircher]

I don't think I want to lynch ofrhz today.

[Ircher]

VOTE: Vulcan
Tbqh, I think we really just need a flip at this point. I don't think we are going to have much more discussion this day.

[Ircher]

Wanting the day to end before deadline is not a scumtell, fyi. The game state feels stagnant imo, in part because people are not participating. I think a flip will give up good information to work from.

[Ircher]

VOTE: NSG

[Ircher]

VOTE: No Lynch

[Ircher]

VOTE: Teacher

[Ircher]

okay so it's less likely we will get another extension hmmm

VOTE: No Lynch

hi, two questions:
1. why have you voted NSG?
2. why no lynch?

1. OMGUS more or less
2. Just cuz

[Ircher]

VOTE: Teacher

I suppose that’s is a reaction. But my bottom line is that I haven’t liked any of the reasoning you were giving, and now you’re not giving any. Another OMGUS? Actual thoughts?

I know SEs don’t have any particular duties. I just got through a game where we had five in total. I’d just expect you’d want to get life back in a game that was boring you.

Yes, another OMGUS vote.

Though on a more serious note, I am going try to do something useful soonish.

[Ircher]

'Just cuz' doesn't really cut it for me as an answer. I need you to talk to me, could you elaborate more?

Well, that's all you are going to get for No Lynch.

[Ircher]

Town Vibe:
Alciel/North --> 109
Draynth --> 175, 187, 256
Etromin --> 33, 70
Harambey/Nancy --> 35, 45, 152, 156, 313
Nacho --> 164, 165

Ventriloquist

Rampage --> 270
Vulcan --> 14, 48, 105, 107, 118, 226, 234, 324

Scum Vibe:
Alciel/North --> 112
Draynth --> 51, 61
Etromin/Scion --> 13, 115, 247, 287, 292, 305
Harambey/Nancy --> 54, 131, 183, 192, 210, 236, 298
Ofrhz/Teacher --> 150, 215, 235, 263, 319
Ventriloquist/Rampage --> 126, 142, 193, 301
Vulcan --> 53, 60

VOTE: Teacher
Yes, I know I'm already voting. This time for realsies.

[Ircher]

Compare 155 + 163 with 199: After declaring that everybody is null through 155 and he is disinterested, Ircher provides very detailed “logarithmic” reads on all slots “to post 100”.

Context is key here:

I reread the thread.

[Ircher]

Town - Ircher, Nacho, Vulcan
Townleans - Harambey/Nancy, Draynth
Neutral - Alciel/North
Scumleans - Etromin/Scion, Ventril/Rampage
Scum - Ofrhz/Teacher

[Ircher]

I never really really had Ofhrz as town, especially not as a strong townread throughout the entire game. And again,

I reread the thread

, this time with a different strategy though. Did you miss my earlier post?

Pedit: Good, you understand they are post numbers. I posted my reads a little ways lower. Anyway, it helps because you can look at the posts (sorry for not linking them) and see where my new reads are coming from.

[Ircher]

Explanations are in 339.

[Ircher]

Didn't you read the categories: town-vibe/scum-vibe? That's what it basically amounts to.

[Ircher]

Town Vibe:
Alciel/North --> 109
Draynth --> 175, 187, 256
Etromin --> 33, 70
Harambey/Nancy --> 35, 45, 152, 156, 313
Nacho --> 164, 165

Ventriloquist

Rampage --> 270
Vulcan --> 14, 48, 105, 107, 118, 226, 234, 324

Scum Vibe:
Alciel/North --> 112
Draynth --> 51, 61
Etromin/Scion --> 13, 115, 247, 287, 292, 305
Harambey/Nancy --> 54, 131, 183, 192, 210, 236, 298
Ofrhz/Teacher --> 150, 215, 235, 263, 319
Ventriloquist/Rampage --> 126, 142, 193, 301
Vulcan --> 53, 60

VOTE: Teacher
Yes, I know I'm already voting. This time for realsies.

Town - Ircher, Nacho, Vulcan
Townleans - Harambey/Nancy, Draynth
Neutral - Alciel/North
Scumleans - Etromin/Scion, Ventril/Rampage
Scum - Ofrhz/Teacher

#pagetop

[Ircher]

Yes.

V/LA Tomorrow

[Ircher]

Ok fine, I'll elaborate.... A little.

Code: Select all

Things to Look For:
 - Interactions
 - Motives
 - Tone

Code: Select all

Interactions:
Draynth versus Harambey argument on lurking: Feel like Draynth comes out the better here and Harambey for the worse.

[Ircher]

I don't think I want to lynch ofrhz today.

This wasn't a townread on Ofrhz btw.

[Ircher]

Didn't you read the categories: town-vibe/scum-vibe? That's what it basically amounts to.

I did, yes. That doesn't help me understand you and it's not an explanation, it's just a blank statement and it doesn't really mean anything to me. Anyone can call any random post scummy and not explain why. This game is about determining alignment and if you are town then you should do things that mafia can't do or find hard to do, like actually explain things in ways that other people can understand.

There is no point in explaining oneself when 1) Scum always have a way to refute it 2) Explanations generally focus on content (which is fine and all) rather than underlying motives 3) Townies get scumread when their honest explanations "aren't good enough". So, no, I'm not gonna explain further.

Pedit: Not a quote; I put it in code to preserve formatting among other things.

Pedit2: I only included that cuz the other thing didn't include that.

[Ircher]

Btw, I don't know **

how many

** times I have seen transparent and honest townies get lynched whereas people of both alignments (town or scum) that simply lurk in the background or provide minimal reads generally get a freepass for several days until someone hones in on their lurking. And even then, "I scumread you because of your lack of presence in thread" says A to B. B then states "I don't even know why I am being scumread other than for not posting much. Activity is not alignment-indicative guys!!!" Then a wagon forms on A for "pushing B for inactivity". And don't tell me this doesn't happen; it happens

all

the time. Also, this has no relevance to the Harambey/Draynth interaction that I looked at earlier.

[Ircher]

Reading the content = Reading semantics, looking for slips, other things that are overwhelmingly null
Reading the underlying motives = Looking at tone, at motives, at a bunch of other stuff that gets ignored (or at least, never mentioned beyond the occassional things like "That's an AtE post" which realy have no value)

[Ircher]

Btw, I don't know **

how many

** times I have seen transparent and honest townies get lynched whereas people of both alignments (town or scum) that simply lurk in the background or provide minimal reads generally get a freepass for several days until someone hones in on their lurking. And even then, "I scumread you because of your lack of presence in thread" says A to B. B then states "I don't even know why I am being scumread other than for not posting much. Activity is not alignment-indicative guys!!!" Then a wagon forms on A for "pushing B for inactivity". And don't tell me this doesn't happen; it happens

all

the time. Also, this has no relevance to the Harambey/Draynth interaction that I looked at earlier.

Yes. Townies have been lynched for bad reasons therefore no one should try to project town ever anymore. This is flawless logic.

Townies have been

consistently

lynched for their transparency, their honesty, and their humanity.

[Ircher]

= Reading semantics

Gonna clarify that I mean surface-level semantics.

[Ircher]

Is it logical? No, not really. But it is the way that things work here.

[Ircher]

Lynch me; I dare you all to.

[Ircher]

Gladiate Teacher

[Ircher]

By the way, I have some statisticcs on my wiki page.... You should go look at them.

[Ircher]

By the way, I have some statisticcs on my wiki page.... You should go look at them.

winning and losing aside - i believe you are aware that showing people what makes you have the read you do doesn't work as well as telling people why.

if i ask about specific posts from 339 will you elaborate or just shrug me off?

I might elaborate; however, I am

definitely

not explaining every single one of them. Also, I don't have all my explanations ready (because I never wrote them...) so yeah..... I had a reason fyi; I just never wrote it down anywhere for the sake of efficiency and the fact that said elaborations rarely have been seen as useful in my experience.

[Ircher]

Oh wait, is teacher a main wagon? We should not lynch teacher please.

From what I've seen so far he is putting a lot of content out there and that is never the type of slot I want to kill day 1. I just checked and he only has 11 posts so that might not actually be true but like, I would prioritize killing slots that aren't producing readable content day 1, especially if I didn't have any scumreads I really believed in.

I disagree with this a lot; also, most of the read is on the former slot's posts, but it is not like the replacement has done anything to change that.

[Ircher]

It says we need a Lynch.

[Ircher]

@Ircher, you said you were planning to be useful. Posting random numbers isnt that useful to me. It just invites people to get confirmation biased into their own cases, rather than deciding whether yours is sound. Can you actually explain a case on me (or someone else, since it looks from readslists that neither one of us is likely to go through, and Im interested in evaluating peoples' compromise pools?)

No, I'm not going to go into an entire case.

If you want explanations for SPECIFIC posts (and that doesn't mean ask about every single one), I'll oblige; otherwise, I'm not elaborating.

[Ircher]

I have reformed; that tactic obviously didn't work earlier so.........

[Ircher]

Ircher, do you think your time is too important to spend on explaining yourself, or something? Because your playstyle is pretty unbearable and it seems like you revel in making it unbearable and making other people's game experience unenjoyable just for the sake of it.

Did I say that? No. Though, I do think it is a waste of time to explain myself when a) it will get me scumread, 100% of the time b) most people dismiss/ignore it anyway unless they are scumreading me for it (see a) c) is there really a point to explaining when scum can like 90% of the time refute whatever I say?

[Ircher]

*sigh*

Not explaining myself is by no means a toxic attitude.

[Ircher]

@Ircher, you said you were planning to be useful. Posting random numbers isnt that useful to me. It just invites people to get confirmation biased into their own cases, rather than deciding whether yours is sound. Can you actually explain a case on me (or someone else, since it looks from readslists that neither one of us is likely to go through, and Im interested in evaluating peoples' compromise pools?)

No, I'm not going to go into an entire case.

If you want explanations for SPECIFIC posts (and that doesn't mean ask about every single one), I'll oblige; otherwise, I'm not elaborating.

Have any of you done this? I don't think so.

[Ircher]

A Draynth wagon would be worthwhile imo. Not a lot of content and what I consider a somewhat suspicious leap onto my wagon. (Granted, the reasoning is somewhat valid, just not necessarily “fair”.
VOTE: Draynth

Why is fair in scare quotes?

Another fact is we kinda have already pressured vulcan, and again, Draynth is a bad pick for that. But you are right that on a second inspection, Draynth and vulcan have done the same.

I don't understand the "Draynth is a bad pick for that" part. Are you saying that Draynth is a bad slot to pressure with a wagon or something else?

1) To draw emphasis.
2) You're reading in too much; I erroneously omitted the "not" between the "is" and the "a". Does that make more sense?

Also, why are you bringing up things from very early on? As in, it feels you are being nitpickey here.
Pedit: Can you desist in this, please and thank you?

[Ircher]

35:

The wagon was mostly formed thanks to RVS so I didn't have much to defend against. Besides, wagons this early on hardly ever get said person lynched. Why would I try to 'defend' myself against a wagon this early on? By staying silent I also won't give scum more information / opportunities to throw more shade in me. And the more I talk, the more I'm putting myself in a losing position based on the past. Because of how I verbalize things, I guess.

So, why do I get townvibes from this? Well, I think I need to clarify first that when I was going through, I was not focusing on what the post says so much as trying to understand from what perspective it most likely was coming from. Why would scum!Harambey stay silent in the first place? Nacho gave a possible explanation in the previous post, but is it the most probable explanation? I think not; I feel like scum in general would be more likely to actually do something than stay silent, even if they do not directly address their wagon. Also, I don't think the second half of the post comes from scum that often; it registers as something that a townie would say if they know they have been lynched for such in the past multiple times.

What I mean is that the post does not feel to me like an attempt to garner towncred or to place a "pro-town" explanation to his actions. Instead, it seems to me like his genuine perspective on his wagon formation. More so than that (though this is a bit subjective), it really feels like a post that is much more likely to be expressed by town than by scum. (And no, it doesn't read as an attempt to play it safe, but rather as I said before, an honest presentation of thoughts on the matter.)
---
45:

I don't know how familiar you are with mafia games so I approached you here as if you're pretty new to the game. I hope this is okay as how it is.

Okay, so this is more or less a very minor reason to townread a person for, but like I said earlier, I was placing emphasis on looking at the underlying perspective expressed by the post versus the post's content itself. So basically, this post has town!vibes because of the fact that Harambey acknowledges what he is doing here. Like, I could see the rest of the post being made by either alignment. It is this last part that makes me go, "Oh, that looks like it came from town." (Honestly, this isn't easy to explain because this is a very subjective, more gut-based read than anything.)
---
210:

Should we need one or two people as team leader(s) to coordinate everything that happens in this game? Things like: making sure that one discussion doesn't go out of hand, let people take turns, make sure that two topics aren't discussed at the same time (because that's less efficient imo). That's what I'm thinking of rn.

Unlike the previous post I commented on, this post can basically be summed up as LAMIST (Look At Me, I'm So Town!). It is fine playing a central role in the game; however, when you go as far as saying, "Hey, let's appoint some leaders that decide everything" while subtly implying "I would be a great candidate for the town leader", it basically amounts to a LAMIST argument. They are trying to draw attention to their "positive" and "town" aspects in a way that goes beyond that of a self-centered townie (which we all are).

[Ircher]

My point in 'Plus...' paragraph is that generally Harambey has been displaying surface level pro-town attitude but was to concern with his safety there to see an opportunity to actually do something pro-town.

To be quite honest, I think we all basically play mafia the wrong way. As in, we look for things that are pro-town and things that are anti-town; things that are "scummy", and things that are "townie". I personally feel this is the wrong perspective and while it may work, I don't think it is the best method (although I do find it the "easiest" method.) Think about this for a second: how often does a townie think very carefully before they post. Now, how often does a mafioso think very carefully before they post? Regardless of your answer to the first question, I think that most of us would agree that mafia tend to be more cautious than town, simply because there is more at stake for mafiosos compared to townies.

So, what does this mean in terms of actual gameplay? It means all those "scumtells" that are listed on the wiki are not scumtells at all. If anything, they should be classified as "derp!tells". Also, how often has a scumtell actually worked in practice (esp. recently)? I think the answer to that is almost never--scum are aware of the classical scumtells, esp. those documented on the wiki, and actively avoid committing them. On the other hand, I feel like most townies are not focusing on how they are being read when they post. They are simply presenting their perspective regardless of what everyone else thinks. And thus, sometimes (or even frequently), townies will misinterpret something, miss something important, or otherwise accidentally commit one of those "scumtells". And if people are scumhunting by what is "scummy" and what is "townie", that townie is bound to get slammed for expressing their perspective, their opinion.

I think the better way to scumhunt is to try to look at the underlying perspective expressed in every post. I also think that everyone should be aware of mastin2/mastina's wiki article on balancing probabilities versus possibilities. (If the link doesn't work, try searching for it; it shouldn't be hard to find.) Almost everything is

possible

for scum to do, but it isn't necessarily true that it is probable, and as mastina explains in the article, town should be focusing on what is probable much more than on what is possible.

[Ircher]

Here's the actual link to the article: Balancing Possibilities Versus Probabilities.

[Ircher]

LAMIST ^.

[Ircher]

Okay, so I just got done rereading this whole damn day 1, and I think that after reading through carefully, I am going to

UNVOTE

My reasoning is that I feel like I misread some of the posts from early and interpreted them in a way that was no conducive to how they were meant. Now, also with rereading all these posts, I feel like Ircher is our best bet for this Day 1 lynch. I went back and watched him flip and flop from one bandwagon to another throughout this whole day phase. I don't think that there is a single person who he hasn't voted for as of yet. Now, as far as my reads go, I can really only go off of feelings as I have never played with anyone in this game before. Still, here we go,


Teacher, Nacho, Scioness - Town Lean
Vulcan, Nancy - Null
Ircher, northsidegal, Draynth - Scum Lean

As far as northside and Draynth go, I would have to go back and quote some posts that rubbed me the wrong way, but I am okay with moving past them today and going with

VOTE: Ircher

I'm 99% sure I haven't voted for Nacho this game.

[Ircher]

And my vote has most certainly not been all over the place. In about 75% of votecounts, it has been on Vulcan. Yes, there was that time I switched to Draynth, but that isn't super relevant.

Besides Vulcan, I've voted North, No Lynch, and teacher according to the mod-provided votecounts. (Draynth as well but that isnt recorded.)

[Ircher]

VOTE: Rampage
Your statement is flawed in so many ways..... I'll explain tomorrow (when it's more convenient for me to post.... eh that means this afternoon actually)

[Ircher]

Okay, so I just got done rereading this whole damn day 1, and I think that after reading through carefully, I am going to

UNVOTE

My reasoning is that I feel like I misread some of the posts from early and interpreted them in a way that was no conducive to how they were meant. Now, also with rereading all these posts, I feel like Ircher is our best bet for this Day 1 lynch.

I went back and watched him

flip and flop from one bandwagon to another

throughout

this

whole day phase

. I don't think that there is a single person who he hasn't voted for as of yet.

Now, as far as my reads go, I can really only go off of feelings as I have never played with anyone in this game before. Still, here we go,

Teacher, Nacho, Scioness - Town Lean
Vulcan, Nancy - Null
Ircher, northsidegal, Draynth - Scum Lean

As far as northside and Draynth go, I would have to go back and quote some posts that rubbed me the wrong way, but I am okay with moving past them today and going with

VOTE: Ircher

While I am sure you probably have more reasons than simply voting patterns, it seems a huge majority of your read on me seems to be based upon it, which is an issue because your reasoning about watching me "flip and flop from one bandwagon to another" is extremely flawed and objectively (and thus provably) false.

So, let's go through my votes:

Ugh... VOTE: Vulcan

First and foremost, the only other person voting Vulcan at this point is Crepppy. Furthermore, I did give a reasoning in 15 regarding my vote. Thus, one can clearly see that this vote is by no means me joining a Vulcan bandwagon; if I wanted to join a bandwagon, I would be voting Harambey, not Vulcan. Whether or not you agree with the reasoning is an entirely different matter that is irrelevant to the point I am making here.

A Draynth wagon would be worthwhile imo. Not a lot of content and what I consider a somewhat suspicious leap onto my wagon. (Granted, the reasoning is somewhat valid, just not necessarily “fair”.
VOTE: Draynth

Again, how can you consider this a bandwagon vote when no one else is voting Draynth at the time. (See 79). Furthermore, I gave reasons for my vote in the post itself showing that the vote isn't purely me voting a random person. Finally, this vote was in response to Harambey's request that we pressure someone that hasn't been active lately. (Also see 89.)

VOTE: Vulcan
Actually, I really prefer this currently (in light of what I said earlier). Partially because the game state seems to have gotten a standstill plus my vote on Draynth wasn't really accomplishing anything.

This is me basically returning to my earlier scumread that I was voting before 82 (i.e.: Vulcan) after other people point out that Vulcan and Draynth had done about the same. Now explain to me how your argument so far is in any way true.

VOTE: Vulcan
Tbqh, I think we really just need a flip at this point. I don't think we are going to have much more discussion this day.

I'm already voting Vulcan at this point; there is absolutely no reason why you could even consider this vote to be me bandwagoning Vulcan when my vote is already there.

VOTE: NSG

I explained this vote, and no one was voting North as of 250 (and no one voted North in the time between that VC and my vote), so again, how is this me "flip-flopping from one bandwagon to the next"? Also, you said I did that throughout the entire day phase, but for the majority of the day phase (as in like 80% of it), I've been voting Vulcan, so........

VOTE: No Lynch

I didn't explain this vote, but if you consider this vote to be a bandwagon vote, there is something seriously wrong.

VOTE: Teacher

Okay, so Teacher was at 2 votes before this vote (see 300), but I still think your argument has no basis in facts here. I did later explain that this basically amounted to an OMGUS vote; however, I didn't explain that immediately. Still, I want you to explain very clearly to me how this vote fits your interpretation of my voting pattern, because I do not see the connection what so ever.

Town Vibe:
Alciel/North --> 109
Draynth --> 175, 187, 256
Etromin --> 33, 70
Harambey/Nancy --> 35, 45, 152, 156, 313
Nacho --> 164, 165
Ventriloquist Rampage --> 270
Vulcan --> 14, 48, 105, 107, 118, 226, 234, 324

Scum Vibe:
Alciel/North --> 112
Draynth --> 51, 61
Etromin/Scion --> 13, 115, 247, 287, 292, 305
Harambey/Nancy --> 54, 131, 183, 192, 210, 236, 298
Ofrhz/Teacher --> 150, 215, 235, 263, 319
Ventriloquist/Rampage --> 126, 142, 193, 301
Vulcan --> 53, 60

VOTE: Teacher
Yes, I know I'm already voting. This time for realsies.

I'm already voting Teacher, so your point about me joining bandwagons here is irrelevant.

VOTE: Rampage
Your statement is flawed in so many ways..... I'll explain tomorrow (when it's more convenient for me to post.... eh that means this afternoon actually)

According to 454, no one was voting Rampage before my vote. Again, explain how this constitutes "flipping and flopping from one bandwagon to another".

My vote on you is directly related to the fundamental flaws in your scumread on me, and this vote goes beyond a surface level read of that you are simply wrong in your assessment; this feels like a purposeful misrepresentation of my voting pattern which appears to me to have likely come from scum hoping for an easy lynch on me. Like, on the surface, it may not seem that unreasonable, but if you look into the actual facts, it is nothing more than a severe misrepresentation of facts meant to give me ill repute. I would reconsider my read of your post (maybe I misjudged) except for the fact that you proceed to go and post this:

I mean, I am just saying your actions speak for themself. You have flip flopped more then a college frat boy at the beach okay.

(Alongside quoting most of my posts with vote in them.) This clearly indicates to me that either a) you are town that failed to research their case or b) (much more likely imo) scum trying to twist what is true and what is false to get someone lynched.
---
Back to my earlier ideas of town being more likely to commit mistakes than scum: this only applies if the mistake committed is genuine. In other words, the player in question misread the situation and is willing (and open) to alternative viewpoints. This is clearly not the case here as evidenced by 486. This feels like scum purposely warping the situation so as to get a mislynch through.

[Ircher]

Okay, so I actually did feel like elaborating on my teacher read since I was voting them, so here it is below (I'm still not elaborating on any of the other posts unless specifically asked, and only if I feel you are being genuine and reasonable in your request):

150:

VOTE: Harambey180
Weren't you voting for alciel because you found his posts awkward? 54 You're walking back on that now

Okay, so when I was going through and made my initial read here, this pinged me as being scum-motivated as it seemed like Ofrhz was simply bringing up something way in the past just to throw shade at Harambey. Now, reviewing the context, I am not quite so sure about the scum-aligned motives associated with this post. Nonetheless, I still think the wording was weird. As in, why use such a loaded question? (It doesn't help that this question is associated with a vote, which makes me feel Ofrhz was trying very hard to paint this situation as a scum situation.)
---
215:

Why didn't you vote for Ircher in this post? Because based on what you wrote here, this should have been followed up with a vote on him.

Again, the wording here is what makes me suspect otherwise. The question is loaded and makes it look like Ventril is at fault. Like, I honestly, I am not sure how I would reword this to make it sound better, but it still my opinion that this post is more shade-throwing than anything. And, not to defend Ventril or anything, but just because you agree with someone on something doesn't necessarily mean you

personally

need to scumread them or vote them.
---
235:

my b I didn't mean to still be voting for my top townread

This post is just weird. I didn't even notice that they were still voting for their top townread; I just wanted to know whether or not they would join the Vulcan wagon. Like, if they just said yes and changed votes, I would have had zero issue with this post. But as it is, it just really feels weird and feels like scum trying to avoid getting scumread for still voting their townread. I feel like the lol smiley compounds the issue that I have with this post.
---
263:

I do agree that me scumreading vulcan's shallow reads is easy. That doesn't change the fact that they're shallow. Do you think we should be ignoring low-hanging fruit because they're easy? ngl I'm getting deja vu from a previous game, where people were pushing a "too dumb to be scum" argument for not scumreading a guy WHO TURNED OUT TO BE SCUM.

I refer people to mastina's wiki article on balancing possibilities versus probabilities (if that doesn't link to it, just search for it; you should be able to find it easily enough). In the article, mastina basically explains that scum thrive on the possibility of something happening versus the actual likelihood of such event happening. Here, Ofrhz is scumreading Vulcan for his reads based on something that is

possible

(scum that is trying to pull the too scummy to be scum argument) versus what is

probable

, that is, town that is perhaps not the best at this game. (This is by no means intended to be an insult to Vulcan btw.) And before someone calls me a hypocrite on the matter, yes, I made a similar argument against Vulcan early in this game where I balanced Vulcan's alignment on something possible (newbie scum white-knighting for no reason--honestly, I don't know what I was thinking then) versus what was probable (someone making an extended joke that was by no means alignment-indicative). Yes, "low-hanging fruit"

can

be scum; however, the overwhelming majority of the time, they are town, and you should consider that when making your reads.
---
319:

The obvious converse is that I found Ircher's reaction to be way over the top. 73 seemed weak. So did 75, especially given how quickly they backed off it. This one in particular seemed to be trying to spread the scum around to see what would stick. my early bad feelings were not alleviated by the late play - expressing disinterest, a naked vote without explanation on NSG, and then a no-lynch vote(!) seems off - but possibly too attention-centric to be scum? I can see aggressiveness here, and agree with Nacho that may be towny, but it could also be playstyle rather than alignment.

Okay, so the problem I have here is that Teacher here is giving a collection of things that can be more or less defined as "scummy" without really giving regard to the probability of a townie acting in a similar way. Also, the expectation here is too high. 73 was weak, okay, so what? Do you believe that scum actively give out weak reasonings in the

hopes

that it will stick? What about 75? Well, my post is referencing post #43, a pretty early post in the game. It is weak, but, is that an issue given where I was then? I think not. And again, do you believe that scum will (in general) throw weak shade on things in the hopes that it will work. If anything, scum are more likely to plan ahead with their actions. Oh, and about backing off early: explain to me how reevaluating a read given another perspective (i.e.: Nacho's in this case) is scum-motivated.

You then proceed to basically skip all of my mid-game content (which while not by any means spectacular, it matters) and jump to the few posts I've made towards the end of the game. Sure, I expressed disinterest.

How is that scum-motivated?

Yeah, I put a naked vote without explanation on North.

How is that scum-motivated?

I even voted No Lynch, and I agree it is by no means town-motivated (i.e.: it is an anti-town action). The question remains the same though.

How is that scum-motivated?

I want you to seriously consider for a moment the reasons that scum would act the way I have this game, without dwelling on the WIFOM argument of "Too Scummy To Be Scum". Do you believe that scum will consistently plant themselves in the spotlight and throw shade on other players in the hopes that it will stick? Do you believe that scum will consistently perform actions that will draw attention to them and increase the probability that they are lynched. Do you believe that scum act randomly in the hopes that something works? Do you believe that town players are going to play a perfect game. Because at the moment, that is basically what you are suggesting I am doing.

[Ircher]

I'm here. Sorry haven't posted. The game has really picked up. Wow. Lemmie post some reads

(Is this going to happen anytime soonish?)

[Ircher]

@Ircher did you not have time to respond to these?

I still got my eye on Harambe though. Perhaps he clammed up when the wagon gained momentum.

I can see scum!Harambe being like "Oh shit! They took me to L-1 already!" And not knowing what to say.

But we can

always wagon him later if need be

. For now, let's examine Ircher.

First of all, Harambey is an SE meaning they are experienced. Even if you disagree with their initial defense for not speaking, his later posts

clearly

show that he is a competent player. What I mean by this is that the probability that scum!Harambey reacts in the way they did (and are unsure of what to do) is next to zero. It is perhaps about as unrealistic as my expectations regarding your read on crepppy, so I guess it isn't necesssarily impossible.

I'm confused, it looks like you're arguing that harambey is town but you aren't townreading him very strongly?

I honestly can't remember at this point, but that sounds about right. To clarify though, the comparison about expectations is between my expectations with Vulcan (and his joke) and Vulcan's expectations about Harambey's behavior surrounding his wagon.

14. In 107:

There are two ways to interpret my earlier statements. As you have done, putting all sorts of motives in where there are none -OR- as someone who is pretty much clueless, moving his votes around because he has NO INFORMATION to go on.

I am just going to point out that mafia is hardly a black-and-white game, and that there is almost certainly more ways than the two you suggested to interpret your earlier statements.

Could you talk about what you think those other ways are and why you don't think they're the world we are in?

Not anything specific off the top of head, no.

[Ircher]

Vote: Draynth

I don't have the time or energy to go into this read in depth right now but I mostly don't feel like the slot is interested in being present and solving/pushing the game anywhere and I don't really think his reads are believable. He's had very little to say about any of the more significant things that have been happening this game and feels very comfortable not doing things.

I will have to look into this.

UNVOTE: Ventriloquist
People don't really seem interested in this and given there's like

3 days left

I should be on a wagon more people are ok with I think,

VOTE: Vulcan Logician

That's L-2

If anyone doesn't want vulcan lynched, can you please explain why?

I don't think I can read this post and understand it at all as coming from town. I don't think it makes sense that he would abandon a wagon simply because people didn't agree with his scumread, especially when it wasn't a weak read and when he hasn't really talked about that read or tried to convince anyone of it. I think if he were town then his push on Ventriloquist would have looked very differently. I don't think there was even a real push there at all.

While I'll look into the not pushing part of your read, I'm going to stop you by saying that the abandonment of the wagon is not necessarily scummy--compromising on a read when deadline is believed to be close is not unusual.

I also think voting someone just because other players are more okay with it is a thought process that [does not] makes any sense at all from town but makes a lot of sense from mafia.

Umm.... No... Sheeping is a thing, and it is not necessarily scummy. Perhaps deadline is close (as it seems to be in this case). Perhaps you really don't have a strong read or don't trust your reads... It happens as town.

Draynth has also not put forward any reasoning for why vulcan is mafia here or why he wants to lynch the slot. His only interaction with the wagon here is to ask if anyone doesn't want to lynch vulcan, which just ends up looking to me like a way to seem like he's interested in evaluating vulcan's alignment without actually doing anything to evaluate it.

I don't think the way that he's voted here without talking about anything that's been going on with vulcan and the discussion around the slot makes sense if he's town and I don't think the way he pulls off ventriloquist makes sense if he's town either.

Meh, I think I disagree with you for the most part, but like I said earlier, I would have to review their pushes on Vulcan and Ventriloquist, if they exist.

People voting Ircher should talk about their read there and why they think he is mafia, anyone not voting him should talk about why they aren't as well.

Ircher what is your read on Draynth right now and do you think anything about what I have posted about him?

@Nacho I think you really need to prioritize talking about your nsg read because Ircher is the leading wagon, I'm the counterwagon, there's basically no discussion around either wagon, you're townreading both of us and your scumreads aren't being wagoned in any meaningful way right now, so this is a pretty stinky gamestate. Whenever you have time please focus on this?

It was a townlean, and it is still pretty much a townlean. If you have any

specific

questions (or want an explanation that doesn't involve explaining every single one of them) about one of those earlier post numbers I posted, feel free to ask.

[Ircher]

My read and vote on Ircher is because of how he has voted. He has been very inconsistent and has basically been the boy who cried wolf the entire game. To me he has drawn a lot of attention to himself. I feel like he is scum trying to portray that he is just playing as a very bad townie. He was one of my top scum reads while I was voting teacher and his predecessor; but because I had misread some of the original players comments, I felt like I had a very good read on him and wanted to lynch him first. Now that I feel my read was wrong because it was based off of my misreading said comments, I feel like Ircher is the next best bet for scum. Like, I feel that if I were to take my vote off and some one else vote for him, his vote would switch to that person. He has been very vocal and spread accusations to several players to try and see if he can't get a wagon going to save his own ass. And now that he is at L-2, he is going crazy overboard trying to defend himself. He says my logic for voting him is flawed, but he never even explains why he votes for who he votes. He acts as if we should never question him because he is town. Well, personally, I don't think he is. I think he is scum that is squirming because he was way too active and got caught, and now he is trying to break free and get to night.

1) Go read my games before you make an argument that can easily be disproven by meta. Even if you don't metadive people, you should be able to determine which people are more likely to be low-hanging fruit/lynchbait than others, which you clearly haven't factored into your read of me.
2) Didn't I just prove that your case on my "inconsistent" voting pattern is

provable and objectively

false? My votes have been more or less consistent with my reads, and contrary to your earlier assertion, I have shown that I have not been "jumping from one bandwagon to the next" this day.
3) My play this game has been more or less like the anti-definition of survivalistic. Take for instance my exchange with Nancy; that could have easily gotten me policy-lynched.
4) Did you ever read my post? And yes, I did explain my voting reasons.
5) This case is very bad.

[Ircher]

I don't know how to take your no lynch vote.

You should ignore it. It is an anti-town vote, but that doesn't necessarily mean it came from scum (or that it likely came scum as such a move is bound to catch attention).

[Ircher]

1. 508 by Draynth -->

I must say, after reading what Nancy wrote, I think I might be seeing some of what they are saying...

2. 516 by Nancy -->

Please give me the TL;DR version.

3. 528 by Scion:
"I'm talking about him being inexpirence scum becuase in all of his four games he played before he never rolled scum. in my first game i was scum, my second was town and it didn't feel like playing scum taught me much about how to scumhunt so that's why i think he might be inexpirenced scum not knowing how to react." -->

I think we will have to agree to disagree on this one. I will note though that just because you haven't rolled an alignment doesn't necessarily mean you will act as a total newbie with that alignment; what I mean is that as you play more town games, you get a feel for what works and doesn't work in general, and I think responding to wagons (like RVS wagons) is one of those things.

4. 529 by Huntress: "Ircher (3) - teacher, vulcan logician, TheRampage" -->

Scum, Town, Scum. Also, I feel like only Vulcan's vote makes any sense to me (esp. considering Vulcan's point-of-view). TheRampage's vote is very bad, and if you sheep his reasoning with elaborating, there is something wrong. And I can't remember what Teacher's reasoning was, but I don't think it was that good. (It was better than Rampage's though.)

5. 532 by Scion: "only in the 'that's meh' way not 'that's scummy'. i feel like the misunderstanding with vulcan about the joke is genuine - i feel like the whole things was ircher trying to stir the pot and create a discussion more than him going for an easy mislynch(?)" -->

Eh, the vote was semi-serious at the time; it wouldn't be fair for me to say that I was doing it for discussion-sake only.

6. 535 by Nancy:

Go take some time to look through my post where I basically utterly refute his earlier argument that I was hopping from one bandwagon to the next, before you say a post he makes on similar reasoning is good.

My vote stays on Rampage for his continued severe misrepresentation of my behavior this game.

[Ircher]

Okay, so I just got done rereading this whole damn day 1, and I think that after reading through carefully, I am going to

UNVOTE

My reasoning is that I feel like I misread some of the posts from early and interpreted them in a way that was no conducive to how they were meant. Now, also with rereading all these posts, I feel like Ircher is our best bet for this Day 1 lynch.

I went back and watched him

flip and flop from one bandwagon to another

throughout

this

whole day phase

. I don't think that there is a single person who he hasn't voted for as of yet.

Now, as far as my reads go, I can really only go off of feelings as I have never played with anyone in this game before. Still, here we go,

Teacher, Nacho, Scioness - Town Lean
Vulcan, Nancy - Null
Ircher, northsidegal, Draynth - Scum Lean

As far as northside and Draynth go, I would have to go back and quote some posts that rubbed me the wrong way, but I am okay with moving past them today and going with

VOTE: Ircher

While I am sure you probably have more reasons than simply voting patterns, it seems a huge majority of your read on me seems to be based upon it, which is an issue because your reasoning about watching me "flip and flop from one bandwagon to another" is extremely flawed and objectively (and thus provably) false.

So, let's go through my votes:

Ugh... VOTE: Vulcan

First and foremost, the only other person voting Vulcan at this point is Crepppy. Furthermore, I did give a reasoning in 15 regarding my vote. Thus, one can clearly see that this vote is by no means me joining a Vulcan bandwagon; if I wanted to join a bandwagon, I would be voting Harambey, not Vulcan. Whether or not you agree with the reasoning is an entirely different matter that is irrelevant to the point I am making here.

A Draynth wagon would be worthwhile imo. Not a lot of content and what I consider a somewhat suspicious leap onto my wagon. (Granted, the reasoning is somewhat valid, just not necessarily “fair”.
VOTE: Draynth

Again, how can you consider this a bandwagon vote when no one else is voting Draynth at the time. (See 79). Furthermore, I gave reasons for my vote in the post itself showing that the vote isn't purely me voting a random person. Finally, this vote was in response to Harambey's request that we pressure someone that hasn't been active lately. (Also see 89.)

VOTE: Vulcan
Actually, I really prefer this currently (in light of what I said earlier). Partially because the game state seems to have gotten a standstill plus my vote on Draynth wasn't really accomplishing anything.

This is me basically returning to my earlier scumread that I was voting before 82 (i.e.: Vulcan) after other people point out that Vulcan and Draynth had done about the same. Now explain to me how your argument so far is in any way true.

VOTE: Vulcan
Tbqh, I think we really just need a flip at this point. I don't think we are going to have much more discussion this day.

I'm already voting Vulcan at this point; there is absolutely no reason why you could even consider this vote to be me bandwagoning Vulcan when my vote is already there.

VOTE: NSG

I explained this vote, and no one was voting North as of 250 (and no one voted North in the time between that VC and my vote), so again, how is this me "flip-flopping from one bandwagon to the next"? Also, you said I did that throughout the entire day phase, but for the majority of the day phase (as in like 80% of it), I've been voting Vulcan, so........

VOTE: No Lynch

I didn't explain this vote, but if you consider this vote to be a bandwagon vote, there is something seriously wrong.

VOTE: Teacher

Okay, so Teacher was at 2 votes before this vote (see 300), but I still think your argument has no basis in facts here. I did later explain that this basically amounted to an OMGUS vote; however, I didn't explain that immediately. Still, I want you to explain very clearly to me how this vote fits your interpretation of my voting pattern, because I do not see the connection what so ever.

Town Vibe:
Alciel/North --> 109
Draynth --> 175, 187, 256
Etromin --> 33, 70
Harambey/Nancy --> 35, 45, 152, 156, 313
Nacho --> 164, 165
Ventriloquist Rampage --> 270
Vulcan --> 14, 48, 105, 107, 118, 226, 234, 324

Scum Vibe:
Alciel/North --> 112
Draynth --> 51, 61
Etromin/Scion --> 13, 115, 247, 287, 292, 305
Harambey/Nancy --> 54, 131, 183, 192, 210, 236, 298
Ofrhz/Teacher --> 150, 215, 235, 263, 319
Ventriloquist/Rampage --> 126, 142, 193, 301
Vulcan --> 53, 60

VOTE: Teacher
Yes, I know I'm already voting. This time for realsies.

I'm already voting Teacher, so your point about me joining bandwagons here is irrelevant.

VOTE: Rampage
Your statement is flawed in so many ways..... I'll explain tomorrow (when it's more convenient for me to post.... eh that means this afternoon actually)

According to 454, no one was voting Rampage before my vote. Again, explain how this constitutes "flipping and flopping from one bandwagon to another".

My vote on you is directly related to the fundamental flaws in your scumread on me, and this vote goes beyond a surface level read of that you are simply wrong in your assessment; this feels like a purposeful misrepresentation of my voting pattern which appears to me to have likely come from scum hoping for an easy lynch on me. Like, on the surface, it may not seem that unreasonable, but if you look into the actual facts, it is nothing more than a severe misrepresentation of facts meant to give me ill repute. I would reconsider my read of your post (maybe I misjudged) except for the fact that you proceed to go and post this:

I mean, I am just saying your actions speak for themself. You have flip flopped more then a college frat boy at the beach okay.

(Alongside quoting most of my posts with vote in them.) This clearly indicates to me that either a) you are town that failed to research their case or b) (much more likely imo) scum trying to twist what is true and what is false to get someone lynched.
---
Back to my earlier ideas of town being more likely to commit mistakes than scum: this only applies if the mistake committed is genuine. In other words, the player in question misread the situation and is willing (and open) to alternative viewpoints. This is clearly not the case here as evidenced by 486. This feels like scum purposely warping the situation so as to get a mislynch through.

No one appeared to read this (except perhaps Rampage who basically ignored it in favor of his twisted perspective), so I'm quoting this again.

[Ircher]

Was a scumlean, but I've started to like your posts a bit more lately, so I will go with Neutral Town for now.

[Ircher]

Okay, so I just got done rereading this whole damn day 1, and I think that after reading through carefully, I am going to

UNVOTE

My reasoning is that I feel like I misread some of the posts from early and interpreted them in a way that was no conducive to how they were meant. Now, also with rereading all these posts, I feel like Ircher is our best bet for this Day 1 lynch.

I went back and watched him

flip and flop from one bandwagon to another

throughout

this

whole day phase

. I don't think that there is a single person who he hasn't voted for as of yet.

Now, as far as my reads go, I can really only go off of feelings as I have never played with anyone in this game before. Still, here we go,

Teacher, Nacho, Scioness - Town Lean
Vulcan, Nancy - Null
Ircher, northsidegal, Draynth - Scum Lean

As far as northside and Draynth go, I would have to go back and quote some posts that rubbed me the wrong way, but I am okay with moving past them today and going with

VOTE: Ircher

While I am sure you probably have more reasons than simply voting patterns, it seems a huge majority of your read on me seems to be based upon it, which is an issue because your reasoning about watching me "flip and flop from one bandwagon to another" is extremely flawed and objectively (and thus provably) false.

So, let's go through my votes:

Ugh... VOTE: Vulcan

First and foremost, the only other person voting Vulcan at this point is Crepppy. Furthermore, I did give a reasoning in 15 regarding my vote. Thus, one can clearly see that this vote is by no means me joining a Vulcan bandwagon; if I wanted to join a bandwagon, I would be voting Harambey, not Vulcan. Whether or not you agree with the reasoning is an entirely different matter that is irrelevant to the point I am making here.

A Draynth wagon would be worthwhile imo. Not a lot of content and what I consider a somewhat suspicious leap onto my wagon. (Granted, the reasoning is somewhat valid, just not necessarily “fair”.
VOTE: Draynth

Again, how can you consider this a bandwagon vote when no one else is voting Draynth at the time. (See 79). Furthermore, I gave reasons for my vote in the post itself showing that the vote isn't purely me voting a random person. Finally, this vote was in response to Harambey's request that we pressure someone that hasn't been active lately. (Also see 89.)

VOTE: Vulcan
Actually, I really prefer this currently (in light of what I said earlier). Partially because the game state seems to have gotten a standstill plus my vote on Draynth wasn't really accomplishing anything.

This is me basically returning to my earlier scumread that I was voting before 82 (i.e.: Vulcan) after other people point out that Vulcan and Draynth had done about the same. Now explain to me how your argument so far is in any way true.

VOTE: Vulcan
Tbqh, I think we really just need a flip at this point. I don't think we are going to have much more discussion this day.

I'm already voting Vulcan at this point; there is absolutely no reason why you could even consider this vote to be me bandwagoning Vulcan when my vote is already there.

VOTE: NSG

I explained this vote, and no one was voting North as of 250 (and no one voted North in the time between that VC and my vote), so again, how is this me "flip-flopping from one bandwagon to the next"? Also, you said I did that throughout the entire day phase, but for the majority of the day phase (as in like 80% of it), I've been voting Vulcan, so........

VOTE: No Lynch

I didn't explain this vote, but if you consider this vote to be a bandwagon vote, there is something seriously wrong.

VOTE: Teacher

Okay, so Teacher was at 2 votes before this vote (see 300), but I still think your argument has no basis in facts here. I did later explain that this basically amounted to an OMGUS vote; however, I didn't explain that immediately. Still, I want you to explain very clearly to me how this vote fits your interpretation of my voting pattern, because I do not see the connection what so ever.

Town Vibe:
Alciel/North --> 109
Draynth --> 175, 187, 256
Etromin --> 33, 70
Harambey/Nancy --> 35, 45, 152, 156, 313
Nacho --> 164, 165
Ventriloquist Rampage --> 270
Vulcan --> 14, 48, 105, 107, 118, 226, 234, 324

Scum Vibe:
Alciel/North --> 112
Draynth --> 51, 61
Etromin/Scion --> 13, 115, 247, 287, 292, 305
Harambey/Nancy --> 54, 131, 183, 192, 210, 236, 298
Ofrhz/Teacher --> 150, 215, 235, 263, 319
Ventriloquist/Rampage --> 126, 142, 193, 301
Vulcan --> 53, 60

VOTE: Teacher
Yes, I know I'm already voting. This time for realsies.

I'm already voting Teacher, so your point about me joining bandwagons here is irrelevant.

VOTE: Rampage
Your statement is flawed in so many ways..... I'll explain tomorrow (when it's more convenient for me to post.... eh that means this afternoon actually)

According to 454, no one was voting Rampage before my vote. Again, explain how this constitutes "flipping and flopping from one bandwagon to another".

My vote on you is directly related to the fundamental flaws in your scumread on me, and this vote goes beyond a surface level read of that you are simply wrong in your assessment; this feels like a purposeful misrepresentation of my voting pattern which appears to me to have likely come from scum hoping for an easy lynch on me. Like, on the surface, it may not seem that unreasonable, but if you look into the actual facts, it is nothing more than a severe misrepresentation of facts meant to give me ill repute. I would reconsider my read of your post (maybe I misjudged) except for the fact that you proceed to go and post this:

I mean, I am just saying your actions speak for themself. You have flip flopped more then a college frat boy at the beach okay.

(Alongside quoting most of my posts with vote in them.) This clearly indicates to me that either a) you are town that failed to research their case or b) (much more likely imo) scum trying to twist what is true and what is false to get someone lynched.
---
Back to my earlier ideas of town being more likely to commit mistakes than scum: this only applies if the mistake committed is genuine. In other words, the player in question misread the situation and is willing (and open) to alternative viewpoints. This is clearly not the case here as evidenced by 486. This feels like scum purposely warping the situation so as to get a mislynch through.

No one appeared to read this (except perhaps Rampage who basically ignored it in favor of his twisted perspective), so I'm quoting this again.

I'm not letting this get missed due to being at the bottom of a page.

[Ircher]

New deadline for Day One is Monday, 21st May, 11pm BST, (in 0 days, 22 hours, 14 minutes).

We have less than a day, and we really aren't that close to a lynch.

[Ircher]

Scion, what do you think about my Rampage read? Do you think his case is more likely to come from town or scum and why?

[Ircher]

Vulcan, what about Rampage?

[Ircher]

Please read 552 as well.

[Ircher]

Meh, I have more pressing scumreads to pursue, aka Rampage and Teacher (esp. the former).

[Ircher]

I haven't metadived Vulcan, but his behavior this game has been fairly consistent with the notion of him being "newb-town".

[Ircher]

Rampage is the townish side of null. I agree with a bunch of his assessments but being correct about things doesn't necessarily mean you're town.

@Scioness- I'm actually NOT townreading you. But you do "feel" townie (whether it's because you are town or intentionally putting out those vibes IDK). My point was, you're not a good D1 lynch. Perhaps you will be a good candidate for D2. We'll see.

Please read 552 as well.

Did you do this?

[Ircher]

Yeah, I think Vulcan's behavior in his one game here matches my view of his behavior here.

Pedit: I mean, it depends on how you play. Your posts generally seem to read as a very competent player. Some players may be competent but not good at mafia, and others are incompetent; in either case, they generally do get the "newb benefit of the doubt" (if they are new) or are classified as low-hanging fruit/lynchbait if they are not new.

[Ircher]

They seem information-seeking rather than agenda-driven. FWIW, scum can feign info-seeking, but it usually indicates towniness.

Eh, how are they info-seeking?

Like, I am biased, but I feel that his posts are pushing a scum agenda by trying to strongarm (exaggeration but whatever) a mislynch on me for reasons that I 1) think are weak and 2) think are flat out incorrect.

[Ircher]

Like @Vulcan, can you point to a specific post and explain your read on it? (For Rampage I mean.)

[Ircher]

But @Vulcan, I don't think Rampage has really engaged me at all with his case, and he seemed to ignore my argument against my case. Again, I don't really see what you are seeing in Rampage.

[Ircher]

Rampage, I more or less started the initial Vulcan wagon. I temporarily jumped to Draynth (and I explained that), but otherwise, I've been on them for 70+% of the day.

[Ircher]

BEETLEJUICED

Yeah, I think that counts:

Last visited:Sun May 20, 2018 11:46 am

[Ircher]

(yes, im trying to beetlejuice her)

hey, it worked!

sorry, been spending most of my time around here doing modding stuff (modding two games right now), really want to give this game more of my attention

Start by giving your opinion on Rampage.

[Ircher]

Well, perhaps you care to elaborate/clarify his points? Because as-is, I don't think his case is objectively true from a logical standpoint.

[Ircher]

My read and vote on Ircher is because of how he has voted. He has been very inconsistent and has basically been the boy who cried wolf the entire game. To me he has drawn a lot of attention to himself. I feel like he is scum trying to portray that he is just playing as a very bad townie. He was one of my top scum reads while I was voting teacher and his predecessor; but because I had misread some of the original players comments, I felt like I had a very good read on him and wanted to lynch him first. Now that I feel my read was wrong because it was based off of my misreading said comments, I feel like Ircher is the next best bet for scum. Like, I feel that if I were to take my vote off and some one else vote for him, his vote would switch to that person. He has been very vocal and spread accusations to several players to try and see if he can't get a wagon going to save his own ass. And now that he is at L-2, he is going crazy overboard trying to defend himself. He says my logic for voting him is flawed, but he never even explains why he votes for who he votes. He acts as if we should never question him because he is town. Well, personally, I don't think he is. I think he is scum that is squirming because he was way too active and got caught, and now he is trying to break free and get to night.

This is basically his case on me:

1) I've been very inconsistent
2) I'm scum trying to be "too scummy to be scum"
3) I've jumped from one bandwagon to the next
4) I've been active and vocal and have spread accusations everywhere to see if something sticks
5) I've never explain why I vote who I vote
6) I act as if I shouldn't be questioned

[Ircher]

Of the 6 points I've listed above, I can basically prove more or less objectively that 1, 3, and 5 are false.

[Ircher]

Hi Im here too but about 100 behind. Just put the kiddos down. Going to catch up for a bit but ping if you want to chat.

Read on Rampage and read on me, pls and ty.

[Ircher]

Also, Rampage has failed to and continues to fail to pay any of my counter-arguments against his case any attention whatsoever.

[Ircher]

UNOFFICIAL VOTECOUNT #1.1
Ircher (3) - teacher, vulcan logician, TheRampage
nancy (2) - northsidegal
northsidegal (1) - Nachomamma8
TheRampage (1) - Ircher, Scioness Sajj (#592)
Draynth (1) - nancy

Not voting (1) - Draynth


With nine players alive, it takes five votes to lynch.

New deadline for Day One is Monday, 21st May, 11pm BST, (in 0 days, 20 hours, 31 minutes).

[Ircher]

*That should say 1 for nancy and 2 for Rampage, sorry.

[Ircher]

Compromise?

Lynch Rampage today then consider lynching me tomorrow?

Pedit: If you are town, you should explain why my viewpoint is wrong.

[Ircher]

Like, you aren't engaging with me at all. How is that supposed to help you understand my viewpoint? (And vice-versa?)

[Ircher]

Other than the fact that I appreciate it, is there really a need for me to mention that you are taking my side, esp. if I'm not scumreading you for it?

Pedit: Why are you apathetic to your lynch?

Pedit2: No Comment

[Ircher]

Oh, okay, well that's fair I guess.

[Ircher]

I'm pretty sure (though not definite) that Nacho would vote Rampage over me. I'm also pretty sure that Nancy (though again, not definite) would vote Rampage over me (based on their last reads list).

[Ircher]

Are you going to address any of my points or continue ignoring me?

[Ircher]

No, it also picks away at the fact that you said my voting was inconsistent-->It hasn't been. AND, it picks apart the fact that you said I was

flip-flopping

from one wagon to the next.

[Ircher]

I cant tell you how much I didnt like 447. But I really liked 476. Im not surprised by your move to Rampage; it feels like you, along with changing strategies, hard OMGUS anyone who votes you. On the Rampage case, I see your defense as being far too strong - his talk of flipfloping makes sense given how much youve move your vote, but you instead chose to focus on the semantic "wagon" wording of it. (I have accused you of the same flipping in terms of seeing what would stick, without the focus on your voting, so I was inclined to credit his case). That said, you show the same semantic-wording focus when explaining your case on ofrhz-me. Maybe you just focus on wording more than I do; I generally try to word things with care (not in this post), but dont assume the same from others. Indeed I assume most slots just come online and post to play, and view lax wordchoice as perhaps towny.

It wasn't a focus simply on the semantics of "wagons"; it was a focus on how he claimed that I had been moving my vote everywhere, which wasn't the case.

[Ircher]

so really want to know why it was done, since for me the most likely (though still unlikely) motivation is scummy.

Simple: Fun.

Plus, I knew everyone would harp on me when I did it, so I did it anyway.

[Ircher]

Yeah, I think I'm fine with leaving the game state as-is and letting the remaining people to decide whether to lynch me or Rampage. Preferably the latter, but I think I've said all I wanted to say for the day (more or less).

[Ircher]

Not really other than the fact that you kinda reminded me that I wasn't a huge fan of Ventrilo's posts either.

[Ircher]

We’re not lynching NSG.

[Ircher]

We’re not lynching NSG.

Because ______.

Because deadline and because the probability that we get a lynch on NSG is really much lower than either Rampage or me.

[Ircher]

Also, @Nancy, I would definitely support a teacher lynch, but again, I don't think there is enough support from the rest of the game, and we really do need a lynch before deadline.

[Ircher]

625 is nsg's post?

Sorry, I meant 661

I don't really buy it too much.

Some AtE reads as town, some AtE reads as scum, and some AtE reads as null. That particular one read as null.

[Ircher]

What bugs me is that right now we have Ircher at L-1 and I am confident that he is scum. If he wasn't, and knowing full that I am not, scum would have jumped my wagon and gone on his already and ended this phase. However, that has not happened. I find it highly unlikely that he is town, because if that were the case, that would mean that more then likely, both scums are on his bandwagon and I feel like he would already have been lynched and we would be in night phase. To me, that means that he is scum. No way we have gotten to this point with two wagons like this, and him not be scum. If Draynth had voted for me instead, I would have already been lynched. If only one scum is on me right now, then the other would have take the opportunity to hammer me.

No, this is wrong.

Scum don't hammer just because a person is at L-1 because doing such (esp. without giving intent) draws unnecessary attention to them.

[Ircher]

Rampage, who do you think is scum with Ircher?

That is a tough one to answer. We have been talking a lot about how if I flip green when lynched it will give us reads and same with Ircher. So there is a possibility that scum wasn't voting until recently; there is a possibility that when Ircher flips scum, that scum may be on his wagon as an attempt to clear them from investigation. There are a few ways Ircher's team mate could be playing this. So, in that light, we would have to consider Nancy and Nachomamma for their not being on either of the main wagons cause they could have been waiting for the chance to hammer me and then sacrifice Ircher next day phase, and then walk out of Night 2 as 1 scum vs 4 town. I will make it better, my best town read right now is Vulcan in my opinion. I feel that if scum is already on the Ircher bandwagon, it would be some one at the beginning of the bandwagon to avoid anyone saying scum hopped on at the back end to clear themself. So to me, that clears Darynth for now, and between Teacher and Vulcan, I feel Vulcan is a better chance at town.

If that is the case, then that means Ircher is the only scum on me. If none of the above is true, then that means that Ircher and one other person on me is scum, which means you or northsidegal. Now, I could lean towards NSG because she made her half ass vote and then disappeared and hasn't really added much outside of that. She hasn't pushed for my lynch despite believing I am scum. That to me is scummy. Scum don't like to lead town lynches, but they love to vote on them. So with that said, I believe she is the best bet on my lynch, outside of Ircher, of being scum.

Gah! Please lynch this. This posts shows

zero

town motivation.

[Ircher]

Serious question @Rampage: why

must

I be scum? Even if you don't think the probability is high, why do you feel that you must ignore the possibiities where I am town?

[Ircher]

From a statistical standpoint, everyone has a 7/9 chance to be town. That's a fact.

Even if scumhunting perhaps raises my chance of being scum by say 30%, the odds are still favorable towards me being town in this case, so again, I don't get why you are 1) ignoring me as if I'm already confirmed scum (not the case) and 2) assuming that I am confirmed scum and not even thinking about or considering the possibiility of me being town. (Your VCA doesn't count in that respect because it is a bunch of what-ifs that ultimately boil down to I'm scum because scum would've already done this if I weren't, and that is not particularly strong reasoning at all.)

[Ircher]

I want a response from TheRampage that isn't just him dismissing literally everything I see as automatically coming from scum; I want him to reevaluate his read and consider which parts of it are true and which parts are a stretch or are built on weak reasoning. I have *yet* to see him even try to do that which is about 75% of the reason that I believe him to be scum.

[Ircher]

Like, as far as I can tell, this is what TheRampage is basically doing:

ORLYScum

[Ircher]

Also this: Confirmation Bias

[Ircher]

Serious question @Rampage: why

must

I be scum? Even if you don't think the probability is high, why do you feel that you must ignore the possibiities where I am town?

I had actually thought about commenting on that possibility, but some one had already brought it up several posts back. They said if you and I are both town, they are laughing their asses off right now. Here is what happens if you flip town. One more town will be killed tonight unless there is a doctor and they guess right on the save. Then I will get lynched, which will put the town down to 4 v 2, then we get another town kill at night, making it 3 v 2, meaning that another mislynch ends the game. So yes, if we are both town, then we are pretty much fucked; but no matter what, if I get lynched or you get lynched, if we are both town, this is the path it will be on. I just have to move forward and hope that my read is right, just like you have to hope that yours is right. Cause yes, if you are not scum, then we are fucked. The only saving grace would be if their is a cop and they investigate the survivor tonight. If the survivor pops not guilty, then we could possibly look elsewhere and get to 5-1 at the end of day 2, cause that is the best case scenario. Still, I have no clue what town roles are in this game outside of mine, meaning I have no clue whether there will be a save or an investigation or a jailing; so I am looking at the best case, and that is that you are scum. Because if you aren't, we are fucked.

Town can reevaluate; if we are both town, town isn't screwed because of aforementioned reevaluation.

[Ircher]

i could jump on draynth wagon btw


but i guess i intent to hammer ircher anyways

You guess?

[Ircher]

Simple: I think you are very likely scum, and I have laid out why.

But fine, some reads:
Nacho - Pretty much town albeit I am worried I am being too lazy in evaluating this slot.
Draynth - Somewhat town; there's been some good things he has done, some bad.
TheRampage - Scum; I've explained why so many times
Scion - Somewhat town; the predecessor (Etromin) wasn't that good but Sajj has been registering more as town lately
Teacher - Leaning scum; I explained why (and this considers Ofrhz as well)
Nancy - Leaning town; I liked Harambey for the most part (though he had a lot of bad posts as he did good posts) and nancy has been pretty good as well
North - Mixed; Alciel had like 1 good and 1 bad post and meh in terms of North.
Vulcan - Likely town; while I definitely don't agree with a lot of his opinions, I think he is being genuine in his posting and haven't found him really be unreasonable; his posts read as town.

[Ircher]

I'm waiting for Nacho to get back here before doing anything....

[Ircher]

I have until 5:30 PM.

[Ircher]

I have until 5:30 PM.

when's that?

(expired on 2018-05-21 17:30:00)

[Ircher]

As town on Day 1, assumptions and gut feelings is all we have. To me, Mafia is a poker game. I only know my cards. Mafia has the advantage cause they know one of our whole cards. They know who is town. All I can do is read everyone at the table, maybe put out some feelers and get a read. My main thing against Ircher is that he is way too defensive. You saw how I was when we were both ar L-2. I put myself at L-1 and was willing to be lynched to better the towns reads. My whole goal is to help the town wed out the scum. Still, I am willing to wait. My reads are as follows

Defensiveness really isn't a scumtell; town should actually put an effort into staying alive versus giving up. Scum moreso, but that doesn't mean town should just quit.

Pedit: I claim...........

[Ircher]

Mafia Rolecop

[Ircher]

Mafia Rolecop

[Ircher]

I think that if both Rampage and I were town, I would actually look into Nacho next....

[Ircher]

YOLO

VOTE: IRCHER

[Ircher]

Mine wasn't bolded, so yours counts.

[Ircher]

I wouldn't self-hammer in a newbie game as town.

[Ircher]

You gotta have a little fun with mafia ya know.

[Ircher]

Woot! We won!