Newbie 1882 - Game Over

teacher
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Post Post #725  (ISO)  » Thu Aug 09, 2018 9:49 pm

In post 707, UglyDuck wrote:actually wait - if skum is Goon!Goon they could claim doc for cred.

I definitely thought this. Indeed, after the claim I thought it was CT-HWS. But really really think about the Reck kill. It makes no sense unless there is a doctor.

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Post Post #726  (ISO)  » Thu Aug 09, 2018 9:51 pm

this is all just a bunch of WIFOM.

scum coulda killed Reck to make us think it was doc-fear.

scum coulda killed Reck because there is a doc

Scum coulda not killed N1 to be able to fake doc

Scum coulda hit doc target N1

Scum coulda hit Skygazer ??? N1 and been able to fake doc.

any number of probabilities are possible, but we need to figure out the ones that make sense and are the most likely.

hopefully we pick that wine and not the poison

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Post Post #727  (ISO)  » Thu Aug 09, 2018 9:52 pm

In post 705, UglyDuck wrote:
In post 682, teacher wrote:Yay I’m townclear.


You absolutely are not. Sky could of been the target... however unlikely that may be.

I agree that is possible. It is also possible Lando is full of shit. But as for just my alignment, (a) apply Occam's razor to what you recognize is unlikely, and (b) look at the timing and progression of my posts following Lando's claim, and ask whether they feel genuine.

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Post Post #728  (ISO)  » Thu Aug 09, 2018 9:53 pm

In post 726, Eragon wrote:this is all just a bunch of WIFOM.

.....

any number of probabilities are possible, but we need to figure out the ones that make sense and are the most likely.


Thats why its not WIFOM. Because there are likelihoods, and thats what you have to compare.

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Post Post #729  (ISO)  » Thu Aug 09, 2018 9:54 pm

I know, but its never confirmed whats happened until after the flips

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Post Post #730  (ISO)  » Thu Aug 09, 2018 9:56 pm

agree. I could well be wrong. After all I soulread Zito as town and have been pinged by Lando all game. But a N1 no kill and N2 Reck kill make the presence of a doctor far more likely than the absence of one.

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Post Post #731  (ISO)  » Thu Aug 09, 2018 9:57 pm

@Ducky - why havent you said who you Jailkept yet?

Eragon
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Post Post #732  (ISO)  » Thu Aug 09, 2018 9:59 pm

intent to L-1 Zito.

reason im intenting L-1 is because scum could quickhammer if by some chance zito/HWS isnt the team

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Post Post #733  (ISO)  » Thu Aug 09, 2018 10:02 pm

In post 549, Eragon wrote:UD are you fakeclaiming? because tbh i think you slipped non-JK in a post after your claim. i may have over-read it, but i want to hear what you say first.

I am just fine if you say you were gambitting
Lando, say whatever else you want, but this attention to detail (the slip Eragon later calls out) is town AF.

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Post Post #734  (ISO)  » Thu Aug 09, 2018 10:22 pm

In post 282, Papa Zito wrote:
In post 280, teacher wrote:
In post 279, Papa Zito wrote:
In post 276, teacher wrote:
In post 275, Papa Zito wrote:You're making assumptions about scum team power that you shouldn't be.
Where, and what assumption?

Why is scum roleblocker not a possibility?
It is a possibility -- 33% in our current world. But Im not seeing how that affects any of the discussion? (Sorry, Im a bit sleep deprived so if it seems like it should be obvious, Im just totally missing it right now).

Roleblocker trumps JK. If the roleblocker exists, the JK is getting permablocked. You don't seem to be accounting for this possibility in your posting.
@call papa - this seems to be false according to the wiki, which says this is a conflict unresolved by natural action resolution. Can you clarify?

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Post Post #735  (ISO)  » Fri Aug 10, 2018 2:29 am

In post 723, Eragon wrote:teacher are you asking the question

@BrassIf the role blocker is still alive and is targeted by the jailkeeper, but the role blocker targets the jail keeper, whose action goes through first?

Roleblocker

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Post Post #736  (ISO)  » Fri Aug 10, 2018 5:03 am

In post 735, brassherald wrote: Roleblocker

In post 734, teacher wrote:@call papa - this seems to be false according to the wiki, which says this is a conflict unresolved by natural action resolution. Can you clarify?


:oops: :eek: :facepalm: sorry.

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Post Post #737  (ISO)  » Fri Aug 10, 2018 11:05 am

Oi lmao


Well I Think that was a 100% townslip on top of already being townclear for teacher

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Post Post #738  (ISO)  » Fri Aug 10, 2018 12:46 pm

In post 717, Completly Trustworthy wrote:I would have had to intentionally let the jailkeeper live two nights

I just finished a game where there was a town dayvig. He lived to endgame because he didn't suspect our scumteam. In other words, if the JK isn't a threat to your team, there's no imperative to kill him.

I would have had to not have killed night 1(because why would sky be targeted?)

Why was Reck targeted? Who hard townread him?

I would have had to risk Duck jailing me or my hypothetical scumbuddy, which would have probably gotten us lynched

This is basically a restatement of your first point.

I would have had to come up with the idea of not killing night one without teacher mentioning it(Teacher first mentioned the possibility in , which was on day 2)

I'm not sure what Teacher has to do with anything unless you just slipped your buddy.

With all this said, why are you so adamant in believing I am not the doctor while giving HWS and Eragon a free pass?

For one, it implicates me and I know my role PM.

It's also far too convenient. In mylo the correct play is to no lynch to reduce the possibilities of a mislynch further. Instead we're in this situation with a dubious claim.
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Post Post #739  (ISO)  » Fri Aug 10, 2018 6:48 pm

Votecount 3.04
Papa Zito (2) - ,
HeWhoSwims (1) -
Completly Trustworthy (1) -
Not Voting (2) - Papa Zito, HeWhoSwims

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.
Day 3 ends in (expired on 2018-08-14 22:00:00).
HeWhoSwims and UglyDuck have been prodded.

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Post Post #740  (ISO)  » Fri Aug 10, 2018 6:54 pm

I think Papa just scumclaimed with the contradiction in the last post.

First, we have him saying Duck is alive because Duck hasn’t suspected scum, not because of a doctor.
In post 738, Papa Zito wrote:if the JK isn't a threat to your team, there's no imperative to kill him.

  • The problem with this is that Duck hasn't really posted reads (look at his ISO).

Second, we have Papa implying that Im Lando’s partner.
In post 738, Papa Zito wrote:I'm not sure what Teacher has to do with anything unless you just slipped your buddy.
  • The problem with this that Duck was most suspicious of me.
Spoiler: duck's suspicions
In post 222, UglyDuck wrote:Chardev still my favorite choice. Teacher could be considered as well.

In post 580, UglyDuck wrote:If Sky flips Town, Teacher is probably my favorite choice.

Finally, but most importantly, we have the external contradiction:
In post 504, Papa Zito wrote:There is a perfectly viable scenario (doc protect) in which you're both town.

In post 738, Papa Zito wrote:this situation with a dubious claim.

Which is it, “perfectly viable” or “dubious”? I thought the former, which is why I believe the claim. While I agree its possible scum intentionally no-killed N1 and killed a common suspect N2 just to be able to fakeclaim at MYLO, I find it far more likely there is a doctor. Indeed, scum that made such perfect night decisions would also likely wait until LYLO to avoid the exact shade you are throwing.

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Post Post #741  (ISO)  » Fri Aug 10, 2018 7:05 pm

@Papa - what's your NKA for both nights if you believe there is not a doctor? Is it really just to lay the groundwork for a fake claim? Keep in mind, in your world, Ugly Duck can jailkeep uninhibited.

@duck - when he answers, compare the likelihood of his answers to mine:
  • N1 scum RB'ed duck in expectation of him being docsaved, and attacked me as widely townread.
  • N2 scum RB'ed duck (same logic), and attacked Reck suspecting him of being doctor (and in any event unlikely to be saved).

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Post Post #742  (ISO)  » Fri Aug 10, 2018 7:38 pm

VOTE: Papa Zito

this is L-1

im not gonna burn myself thinking over doc/not

if the scumteam fakeclaimed doc as 2 goons in Mylo without killing N1, they honestly deserve the game

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Post Post #743  (ISO)  » Fri Aug 10, 2018 7:50 pm

[vote]unvote[/unvote]

I think there are strategic aspects of night play that make it worth waiting til Duck picks up his prod.

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Post Post #744  (ISO)  » Fri Aug 10, 2018 7:50 pm

VOTE: unvote

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Post Post #745  (ISO)  » Fri Aug 10, 2018 10:22 pm

Teacher, can you review Zito and HeWhoSwim's Iso's and use VCA to make your case for them being a scumteam? I believe it is likely that is the case since I agree that is towny and HWS has seemed like he's been trying to remain unnoticed in the background for a while. However, I would still like more evidence than just intuition and a few posts potentially being read into too much before making a final decision.

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Post Post #746  (ISO)  » Sat Aug 11, 2018 12:46 am

Hey I'm so sorry I've been busy. I can see Zito scum now that reck is ded. Detailed stuff coming later y'all.

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Post Post #747  (ISO)  » Sat Aug 11, 2018 3:31 pm

Hey. I have re thought the situation.
I am very sorry about being inactive.

I do not believe in hindsight that CT would of been setting this up from D1/N1 even with my claim. Seems far fetched. also my reasoning behind there being no point in him claiming at this point is wrong because if he is Town then he ISO's the field down to less options.

I need to think about what it means for Teacher.

However, I no longer want to be on IC.

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Post Post #748  (ISO)  » Sat Aug 11, 2018 3:32 pm

In post 747, UglyDuck wrote:Hey. I have re thought the situation.
I am very sorry about being inactive.

I do not believe in hindsight that CT would of been setting this up from D1/N1 even with my claim. Seems far fetched. also my reasoning behind there being no point in him claiming at this point is wrong because if he is Town then he ISO's the field down to less options.

I need to think about what it means for Teacher.

However, I no longer want to be on IC.



UNVOTE: IC

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Post Post #749  (ISO)  » Sat Aug 11, 2018 7:21 pm

Okie dokie here is my attempted at making a good decision.
I would like to start with the state of game we are in right now, mainly to elaborate on my last post.

No Lynch Option) With 6 alive, taking 4 to lynch, with 2 skum remaining... TODAY, from a voting pov, skum is at a disadvantage in comparison to tomorrow if we are 5 alive, taking 3 to lynch. Obviously because the game does not end, but then they only need on Town player to choose incorrectly in order to end the game. This would be the route taken if we went to No Lynch. We would most likely wake up to the 2 remaining skum, myself, and Not!CT (most likely at least - as they would block me to ensure kill goes off and then kill CT to get rid of Doc and keep pool just as large tomorrow).

Lynch CT vs. CT is Doc) The alternative to this is to lynch someone today. If we choose to do so, we pretty much have to choose between two options - either we lynch CT, or we lynch within Zito/Eragon/HWS. The choosing CT part is self explanatory if we found it the option, but the way I arrive at the second option pool is from what I said in my previous post - I doubt CT, or anyone, has been setting this up from day 1. So, since that leaves the most likely OOE N1 being I JK sky, CT docs Teacher, Skum RBs me to be sure, and skum shoots Teacher, I am removing me, CT and Teacher from the equation in this situation. Something to be remembered here is that both Teacher and CT are still not 100% Town while they live, they just seems to be more likely town then not given this situation. The potential downside of lynching someone today, is of course being wrong. If we mis-lynch today it is up to night actions to allow us even the opportunity to finish the game out perfectly from that point, and gives skum the upside of being able to use all the WIFOM they choose for the selection of their NK.

OK - that is where I am at with the lynch/no-lynch decision. I am trying to come up with a for sure solution, but rn, even given the downsides, I am leaning towards lynching, and lynching within the Zito/Eragon/HWS pool.

Then I want to take that pool and add some VCA assumptions to it.
The pool I have suggested would be Zito/Eragon/HWS.
I am approaching this VCA look based on both CT and Teacher being Town.

This was the VC EOD1:
In post 402, brassherald wrote:
Votecount 1.FINAL
Ceejayvinoya (5) - , , , ,
Chardev (1) -
Skygazer (2) - ,

Not Voting (1) - UglyDuck

A lynch has been achieved
Night 1 ends in (expired on 2018-07-30 13:00:00).


- On the Town Wagon was potential Skum of [Zito, HWS].
- Off the Town Wagon was Town!Duck, Town!CJ, Town!Reck, and Unknown!Chardev/Eragon.
The first question I asked myself here, was whether it was more likely for there to be one skum on, and one skum off, or both skum on. Personally, I believe that since we know that both Skygazer and CJ were Town.. It is EXTREMELY LIKELY that there was one Skum on the Wagon and the other Skum is Charved/Eragon (I say this because it would create a TownVTown wagon situation, in which there is no reason for the other to switch because either way Town is getting lynched and they can fade the suspicion).



Here is the EOD2 VC:
In post 653, brassherald wrote:
Votecount 2.final
Skygazer (5) - , , , Papa Zito, Skygazer

Not Voting (3) - UglyDuck, Chardev, HeWhoSwims

A lynch has been achieved
Night 2 ends in (expired on 2018-08-07 21:30:00).



So first off, this day is obv a little weird from VCA because Sky was like probably gonna be the lynch no matter what. It is really.. like super really annoying that they self hammered here... like potential lose the game annoying if we find the first skum and go lylo searching for number 2. Do not. Ever. Self Hammer. As Town. It is literally. NEVER. Correct. (in normal set ups). Anywhooooo, here is what we get from this:
- On the Town Wagon we have one sucidal maniac (town), 3 other Town, and Zito.
- Off the Town Wagon we have one Town (me), and then Chardev/Eragon and HWS.
Again, same question comes up... except this time it is black and white under the assumption of CT/Teacher being Town. There has to be one on and one off. So it is Zito and either Eragon or HWS.


OK take all that in and look at it and what you are gonna take if you can look at it unbiasly from the way I did... is that it is most likely Zito and HWS/Eragon.
HOWEVERRRR - please also keep in mind that if the skum team was actually planning this set up from day one that they would absolutely stay on the same wagon ever single day to make sure if the fake claim was found out that the other is not looked at as closely... and obv CT and Teacher have been on both times. Not really still thinking that one is likely, just pointing it out.


TLDR;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;
I think CT and Teacher are Town today.
Limits the pool to Zito/Eragon/HWS.

NEW FACT!!!!!
My target last night was HWS. Which means absolutely nothing under my assumption of thought as they would of RBd me N1 and N2. The only thing it adds is more confidence that either Skum targeted Teacher N1 and therefore CT and Teacher are Town, or the absolute opposite and both CT and Teacher are skum.

All of this added together is why I am pissed off at Skygazer. If they did not self hammer, as I had litterally no intention of hammering, it would of forced either one of Chardev/Eragon or HWS to hammer. We could of then either isolated that person or isolated Zito/off person. Now we have to play the game of whether there was 2 people OFF the Self Hammer Wagon, or 1 person OFF the Self Hammer Wagon.

Whatever - I am like 99% sure Zito is probably skum. Or at least I think it is more likely Zito and [HWS/Eragon] than anything else. Also, I want to take this time to point out that assuming allllllllllllllllllllllllll of this speculation is somehow actually correct, if Zito is skum we have a 50% chance of killing the RB. We also have a 50% chance of killing a Goon. If he is Skum and a Goon, then that is cool we didn't mislynch.... but to further on my above point about the value in No Lynch vs Lynch today.... If we lynch today, and we happen to Lynch the Skum!RB it puts us in a situation where most likely CT and Teacher are town. So then I have to choose between Eragon and HWS. If CT docs me, then I have a 50% chance to send us to tomorrow at 4-1.

This is a Risk vs Reward situation. The Risk and the Reward of being right about CT/Teacher being Town both makes sense when looked at from the Risk perspective and the Reward perspective. If we continue, the amount of information to look into is almost limitless. Whereas if we lynch within CT/Teacher, The Risk is... I guess technically the same, but I feel like given information not... and the Reward is wayyyyyy less because if we lynch there we obv lynch CT, and then there is no GTD at that point that they did try to shoot teacher instead of have been setting it up from day one.


I have time off work and ISO's to read, so those are coming next. I don't want to vote RN, but at this point consider my vote on Zito.

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