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Post Post #175  (ISO)  » Thu Sep 13, 2018 4:54 pm

In post 168, angel7399 wrote:Hi, guys! I just replaced in, and I've never played on a forum before. I've played plenty of mafia and werewolf in real life, and I started a text-based real-time version of the game with a bunch of my friends, but this seems entirely different in the amount of time it takes and how much conversation happens (especially now when to me it seems like we have no solid information, only suspicions). Anyways, bear with me as I don't really know what I'm doing! :)

hi angel, welcome! :) hope to hear from you once you've finished reading up! (good luck on the walls of text lol)..

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Post Post #176  (ISO)  » Thu Sep 13, 2018 5:17 pm

edit:

In post 173, xwing wrote:regarding my take on the inactives, i think we should be a bit wary in speculating their alignment, since in my first game, the two inactives were actually PR roles..whereas in reundo's, they were scum..all im saying is we can speculate but we shouldn't put too much importance on it..we wont know until they actively join the game..


sorry, my statement is technically correct..but i need to be clearer: we had a lot of replacements that game..
the VERY LAST slot who got replaced turned out to be scum..
the other replacements BEFORE that were town..

i think reundo and i might be talking about the same game..

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Post Post #177  (ISO)  » Thu Sep 13, 2018 6:12 pm

In post 171, Thor665 wrote:Reundo has UC in his "three people who might be Thor's scumbuddy - even though I think it's the most obvious pure flaked slot because once that happened elsewhere"


i think you meant to say "Wind" instead of "UC" here..

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Post Post #178  (ISO)  » Thu Sep 13, 2018 6:28 pm

In post 159, Thor665 wrote:I already described one theory - wherein scum Reundo would think it might look scummy to change course.
An easy second option is - by focusing consistently on me he is able to avoid giving other reads.
It can also be both of those together.
You see no possible scum motivation at all?

I'm still sorting him null for the most part because he isn't doing anything, but if we lynched him I'd be fine with that. People town reading him seem to be doing it for no reason other than that he agreed with them at one point.


just letting you know i read this and im keeping it in mind..
but i still dont feel that way about reundo..

also, your last sentence is not entirely accurate (though i liked that you used "seem")..in my earlier post i town read reundo because i feel he thinks you're scum and is trying to engage you until he is satisfied with your answer(s)..(or maybe get exasperated which im betting on lol)..

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Post Post #179  (ISO)  » Thu Sep 13, 2018 6:47 pm

Skimming through xwing's ISO and comparing it to their other game, I almost feel like they're... playing up their newbieness?

In Newbie 1886 they seemed to be contributing most by asking questions and giving short, but fairly noncommittal reasoning for whatever they were doing. Here, they seem much more eager to please - essentially immediately apologizing whenever they get pressured and doing pretty much exactly as they are told - almost out of fear of being perceived as scum. Playing the newbie card is really quite easy to fake and in my experience tends to make other people more forgiving of whatever screw-ups they might be up to. I'm seeing a decided lack of initiative after that borderline-gaffe with L-1 at the beginning of the game. This can be interpreted as natural newbie hesitation, but it seems a lot more played-up to me in this game ("excuse my newbie questions", "I'm really trying to help town!"). The fact that they seem to really be trying to appease me isn't helping me much - I can easily see this coming from scum!xwing in an effort to appease me and diver suspicion. They've mostly tried a lot more to appear cordial compared to their first game where even when pressed they seemed less affected and overall more skeptical.

I realize this is mostly tone-interpretation from one-game meta applied to very minor things and therefore very prone to error, but even after rereading, I can't shake it off - resulting in a scumlean for me, even if rationally I know I'm going off of very little. I doubt I'd be able to lynch them today, but I'm going to be a lot more aware of them and what they're saying in the following days.

As an aside, Reundo's given a pretty easy townread to xwing all things considered (though to be fair, I think they have to most anyone that isn't Thor).

(Not game relevant: xwing, if your friendliness really is genuine, I appreciate it, but I can't let it cloud my judgement. Sorry.)


RE: lynching into lurkers, I'm down for that plan and I realize they're mostly interchangeable. If I had to pick, right now I'd be most willing to lynch volxen or UC (horrordude hasn't done much either, but at least they've helped me sort out some of my thought process in making this post; so if they're town, they're useful town.)

Still, I don't get why volxen seems to be getting an easy pass? Posting at the beginning, seemingly losing interest when most of today's relevant content showed up, then blatantly prod-dodging gives me a foul taste. Yes, sometimes it's a necessity if you're really swamped, but how hard can it be to at least give some overview on your thoughts? The "catching-up" still isn't done either. The walls are admittedly pretty long but some first-impressions and quick reads would be a stronger showing from town, especially since I specifically asked for them. It's no crime to change your mind after some thinking, only scum worries about being super-consistent. All I know about him so far is that he disagrees with Thor's RVS philosophy and he doesn't like xwing's overall play. Not exactly mindbending takes there. I was willing to call them null at the beginning but I got pretty annoyed as time went on and I don't see what others are seeing in his posts. He's even still sitting on their RVS quote.

Compare all this to horrordude posting a solid catch-up post followed up with a vote and you don't really get off with anything very towny at all.

Wrapping it up, lynching the newbie slot gives us the least amount of info on D2 if they flip scum, so I think it's a no-go. (As well as it just being, well, kind of cruel to someone who had to replace into a slot twice-flaked. I know, not really relevant, but minor things like this make all the difference if we're lynching into inactives.)

Gonna try to give some thoughts on Thor, Reundo and RCE when I find some more time, for now I'll just comment this: reading some early game stuff again, I notice Reundo and RCE seem to be mindmelding a lot. You could chalk it up to your history, but I really hope it's not affecting your judgement. If possible, I'd like you two to give some more thoughts on each other's play, even if it's the most minor things sticking out - would help a lot in trying to read you.

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Post Post #180  (ISO)  » Thu Sep 13, 2018 11:14 pm

fair enough, i'd understand the paranoia, but dont go overboard either..

you've brought up my "appeasement" of you multiple times for me to divert attention--do you think im doing the same thing with defending reundo (i've mentioned multiple times he's a strong town read for me as well)? do you think of it as unnatural/manipulative?

if you got any question for me, lemme know.. :)

Spoiler: "not game relevant"
no need for apologies, no offense taken..carry on..you can conclude as the game progresses whether im friendly or just manipulating you :)


im feeling good about horror..though i noted that he used almost the same reasoning as mine regarding UC's early vote..not really AI, but just noted..

im sorting out volxen's slot, but it relies on him replying back to me..

hopefully we hear soon from angel and UC so i can give my thoughts about them as well..

@mod: i'm usually V/LA on weekends, but will try to post when i can..it's friday late afternoon in my part of the world right now so might be fri/sat for USA

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Post Post #181  (ISO)  » Thu Sep 13, 2018 11:36 pm

Quick question is I haven't read through all of XWings game, was he lynched at any point? I'm assuming he was town but I'll bring it up in a read for Xwing after that's answered.

Reundo and I agree on a lot and part of it may be history but I think we view the game in similar terms. I'll spend a bit of time going through his ISO but for now I only have one minor issue regarding Reundo. I'm expecting an the game progresses things will get muddier if we are both alive late game.

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Post Post #182  (ISO)  » Thu Sep 13, 2018 11:38 pm

I'll say that Volxen was much more active in his last game. To Nova I'll say that his walls are playstyle indicative not alignment indicative. He gets a lot out in his posts and similar to me is probably prone to tunnels.

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Post Post #183  (ISO)  » Fri Sep 14, 2018 12:23 am

In post 156, xwing wrote:
In post 153, volxen wrote:I did see your initial explanation about what happened in your previous game, I just don't think it was a good reason for you to vote for Thor just because other people did, especially when it sounded like you really wanted to pressure UC rather than Thor. By "pressure" I mean that you could have started by voting for UC to get his attention, and then start asking him questions, which could have led to a back-and-forth dialogue between the two of you. This in-turn could have helped you to either solidify your initial scumread of him, or perhaps it would have convinced you that your initial read of him was wrong. But you instead voted for Thor just because other people were doing it and didn't put any pressure on the player that you said you wanted to pressure in two different posts (UC). That is what I find suspicious in your gameplay.

Also, I want to clarify something. In this post you said, "upon examination i admit that was a bad move on my part..at that time im not able to really defend my vote on thor coz i dont believe him to be scum, i just wanted to see how the interactions between the 3 "strongest" players were". Are you saying that Thor was NEVER a scumread for you, or that he initially was a scumread for you but you changed your mind about him? Because in post you listed UC and Thor as your two scumleans:


yes, the reasoning, game-wise, might not have been sound..but what did you think of my thought process and motivation behind it though? do you think of it as genuine/fake? town/scum motivated? easy/hard to follow?
also, do we need to vote someone to get their attention, before asking questions? or is this more on game meta? coz personally even if i get tons of votes i dont really feel pressured at all (maybe coz i havent experienced drawing scum so i dunno..) i believe just directly engaging/asking the person would merit the same reaction..and if you've got enough info based on content and interactions (or lack thereof), then you can build a case then vote for them..that way, town can see your thought process and reasoning and join your vote if they are convinced..

do you have any scum reads at the moment, volxen?

to address your last point: during my L-1 vote on thor, i didnt have anything on him (null), i just wanted to see how their 3 interactions would go..
as of this writing, im treating the trio as town, though if there's scum in that pool, i will still choose thor..i've explained why in my previous posts..


I think it's plausible that you could do what you did as either alignment, so you are still null for me at the moment. As town, it could be simply as you say it is, that you wanted to change up your gameplay from your last game so you intentionally sheeped onto the largest wagon right off the bat to "stand out". As scum, your motivation could have been to push for a Thor lynch, and/or to force a roleclaim out of Thor, especially if you and your scumbuddy suspected that he is a town power role. After all, since Thor is the IC, if he is town the argument could be made that he is the strongest town player among us and getting him lynched and/or forcing him to out himself as a town power role would be a strong start for the scumteam.

For the time being I'm giving you the benefit of the doubt, as your responses to me so far haven't indicated to me that you necessarily have malicious intent with your voting (i.e., voting for Thor when you listed UC as your prime suspect). This is probably in part due to my experience in Newbie 1885 (link: https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=77049), where I incorrectly scumread a relatively new player (Hugo) due to him unfortunately doing a series of things that unintentionally made him look seriously scummy. I've learned from that game that new players will simply unintentionally do things that are suspicious, so for now you get the benefit of the doubt. But I will be keeping a close eye on your slot. :igmeou:

I don't have any strong scumreads yet, but I think I would like to get UC's attention. So:

VOTE: UCvoyager

UCvoyager is now at L-1

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Post Post #184  (ISO)  » Fri Sep 14, 2018 12:34 am

In post 182, RCEnigma wrote:I'll say that Volxen was much more active in his last game. To Nova I'll say that his walls are playstyle indicative not alignment indicative. He gets a lot out in his posts and similar to me is probably prone to tunnels.


Probably prone to tunnels? In Newbie 1885 I incorrectly tunneled on Swims the whole game, lol. I'm trying to break that bad habit, though.

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Post Post #185  (ISO)  » Fri Sep 14, 2018 9:15 am

Nova, excluding UC who would your top lynch today be?

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Post Post #186  (ISO)  » Fri Sep 14, 2018 9:25 am

Either volxen or xwing, favouring volxen atm. If horrordude was serious about the associatives, however, lynching xwing could really help us solve, so I'd love to hear more about that.

For the record, I think the chance of both volxen and xwing being scum is pretty low given their interactions.

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Post Post #187  (ISO)  » Fri Sep 14, 2018 9:52 am

You don't see a world where Scum!Volxen pushes Scum!Xwing and just let's it go in favor of lynching UC?

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Post Post #188  (ISO)  » Fri Sep 14, 2018 10:03 am

In post 185, RCEnigma wrote:Nova, excluding UC who would your top lynch today be?

That's food for thought I suppose, UC is a non-commital lynch for just about everyone in the game atm. One of the reasons that make me favour lynching volxen is that he really hasn't come clean regarding anyone but xwing, I don't know where they stand at all, whereas xwing has at least posted some constructive reads (even if it is just "everyone is town, but if I have to pick, Thor is scum.")

Still, that would be a contrived distancing method - probably more effort than would be necessary. It's not out of the question, but it doesn't seem like the most likely possibility. Do you think otherwise? Who's your preferred lynch at this stage of the game?

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Post Post #189  (ISO)  » Fri Sep 14, 2018 10:04 am

Edit: Wrong quote, I was posting on mobile and failed to notice, my bad.

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Post Post #190  (ISO)  » Fri Sep 14, 2018 10:16 am

It would have to be pretty sloppy distancing to scumread Xwing primarily for his scumread around UC only to then place his scumreads' scumread at L-1. So no I don't really think it's S/S

I'd probably lynch Winds or Horror today, there wasn't anything in his catchup that really made me think damn this guy is town. Winds i'd feel bad lynching but that's my empathy in play.

The only real reason I'm apprehensive with UC as the lynch is that there is Zero push for anything else (except this post, the irony is not lost on me) which makes me believe it he dies flip scum then one of the other inactive is likely the partner but that's still a low info lynch.

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Post Post #191  (ISO)  » Fri Sep 14, 2018 10:18 am

UC flipping scum now probably earns me a Thor lynch tomorrow so meh. Also before I get chewed out for not reading Reundo deeper, I'm probably going to be dodging that Reundo ISO thing I said

Not game related but we had a flood Wednesday and my comp is fried so I'm stuck to mobile posting and that makes it trickier.

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Post Post #192  (ISO)  » Fri Sep 14, 2018 11:34 am

Replacing UC Voyager.
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Post Post #193  (ISO)  » Fri Sep 14, 2018 11:34 am

Image

Votecount 1.6UC Voyager (4) - Thor665, horrordude0215, xwing, volxen
Thor665 (1) - Reundo
volxen (1) - NotNova

Not Voting (3) - angel7399, RCEnigma, UC Voyager

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Deadline is in (expired on 2018-09-18 02:50:39).
Last edited by MarioManiac4 on Fri Sep 14, 2018 11:49 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Post Post #194  (ISO)  » Fri Sep 14, 2018 11:40 am

In post 172, RCEnigma wrote:Why do you see UC more likely to lurk as scum over Horror?

Because UC is active lurking whereas Horror isn't.

To clarify the term I'm using - go look at their ISOs.
Horror disappeared for a while, then came back with (whether you find it impressive or not) at least a decent attempt at catching up and offering reads.
Meanwhile UC has been here and posted an RVS and two different promises of catching up and offering thoughts.
It is blatant that Horror is at least trying.
Now, does that assure Horror town? Nah. But I'll take effort over apparent avoidance any day.

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Post Post #195  (ISO)  » Fri Sep 14, 2018 11:41 am

Forgot to answer RCE's question: xwing was killed on N2 in their first game.

I don't mind you not taking the time for an ISO-dive if you are having these RL issues. Just a bit afraid I won't have time to gather up the promised reread, I have an exam next week to attend to so my attention is split atm.

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Post Post #196  (ISO)  » Fri Sep 14, 2018 11:51 am

Fair enough, I'll post intent and we can decide after hearing from the replacement. However now the problem is that the replacement needs time to catch up and even when read up could still take more time to get posts together. Then it's a small sample size and already negatively skewed because they haven't interacted with the game like everyone else has. Even if that skew isn't intentional or is still present.

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Post Post #197  (ISO)  » Fri Sep 14, 2018 2:30 pm

Prodding Reundo, he has (expired on 2018-09-15 15:30:06) to post or he will be replaced.
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Post Post #198  (ISO)  » Fri Sep 14, 2018 4:46 pm

In post 196, RCEnigma wrote:Fair enough, I'll post intent and we can decide after hearing from the replacement. However now the problem is that the replacement needs time to catch up and even when read up could still take more time to get posts together. Then it's a small sample size and already negatively skewed because they haven't interacted with the game like everyone else has. Even if that skew isn't intentional or is still present.

By definition we're playing in a small sample size game - since I believe it's possible to get reads that are better than random chance it behooves us to limit the amount of non participating slots.
If you don't 100% buy into that - don't offer intent.

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Post Post #199  (ISO)  » Sat Sep 15, 2018 3:33 am

Nova, is there a particular reason why you singled me out compared to the other players with low-content? In you voted for me and called me out after I had made a post () indicating that I was in the process of getting caught up in the thread. You called me out for lurking, but you didn’t call anyone else out and it came across like the only reason why it bothered you is because I made that post before I would have gotten prodded, as opposed to making it after I got prodded. In the very next post in the thread, , UC made a similar “I need to get caught up” post, but it didn’t phase you at all. Literally the only difference between my “I need to get caught up” post and UC’s “I need to get caught up” post is that I made mine before I would have gotten prodded, and he made his after he got prodded. Also, at the time you made , Horrordude only had two posts ( and ), one of which was his RVS vote and the other being his “I need to catch up” post. UC also had only two posts ( and ) at the time you made , and again here one of his posts was a unvote/vote and the other was a “I need to catch up post”. I, on the other hand, had 5 posts (, , , , and ) at the time you made , and 3 out of those 5 posts contained serious game-related content. The fact of the matter is that I had more game-related content than both Horror and UC combined at the time you made , but out of us three “lurkers” the ONLY thing that stuck out to you was the fact that I made my “I’m getting caught up” post before getting prodded as opposed to making it after getting prodded? Seriously?

If you had equally called all three of us out in for having low-content, that would have been one thing. But you completely ignored UC’s and Horror’s own lack of content and hammered down on me solely because of the timing of my “I’m getting caught up” post. And then in , you continued to double down on me while still basically ignoring UC’s lack of content (you briefly name dropped him here but that was it). And here you also praised Horror for making a catch-up post, while downplaying my exchange with and questioning of xwing, as if that’s somehow not legitimate game-related content.

If your case against me is that I am more likely to be scum compared to the other low-content posters because of the timing of my “I’m getting caught up” post, then, to quote Reundo, I would say your case is pretty damn “flim flam”.

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