Newbie 1890 - Game Over

[Lafayette]

VOTE: Saudade

How do you pronounce that?

[Lafayette]

Hey y'all, I just finished - and lost - my first game in five and a half years (modded by Micc). Before this hiatus I played as Cub Daigoro.

Oh hey cool I beetlejuiced you

Don't you have to say Beetlejuice three times? Wanna Beetlejuice Saudade with me and Micc?

[Lafayette]

What makes you think a third vote would be excessive at this point?

This is worth drawing out for a brief discussion. Personally, I don't think it's excessive to

VOTE: Malakittens

at this point.

What are your objectives in the early game? Question goes for Egix but really a question for everyone.

[Lafayette]

A few things I believe about the early game:
1) All early reads are tentative, so IMO we can just assume any early reads have an implied disclaimer that they are subject to change and likely will.
2) I don't really believe in "tells" or provoking reactions, I believe in behaviors and provoking actions.
3) Pro-town/anti-town is not the same as towny/scummy. Pro-town behavior can be town-motivated or scum-motivated, as can anti-town behavior.
4) Using your vote is inherently* pro-town. Having your vote in play, even if your reads are weak, is always* helpful, even if you're scum, because a) seeing how people are voting cuts through a lot of nonsense and b) withholding your vote means robbing town of your most potent weapon and literally the only one that actually catches scum.
* The exception, of course, is when voting would cause a premature lynch.

That being said, I don't think we should be shy about L-2 or even L-1 in the early game, as long as we agree as a town to follow some basic guidelines:
a) Always check the vote count.
b) Announce when you vote to L-1.
c) Don't quick hammer.
d) Instead, announce intent to hammer and allow for a role claim and subsequent discussion.
e) Get consensus that discussion is done and town is ready for the hammer.

People Do Stuff every time they post. IMO, the second set of Mala's posts is the scummiest thing of the game so far (please see belief #1 - last time I'll point it out explicitly). The friendly reassurances are helpful for building trust, which is only helpful for town if she's town, but if a friendly person rolls scum they're still scum. So when I look at her second set of posts in terms of the Stuff she Did, she opted to help herself and not to do anything that helps locate scum.

[Lafayette]

2) I don't really believe in "tells" or provoking reactions, I believe in behaviors and provoking actions.

Thank you for the long post declaring your positions out in the open. What is the difference between provoking reactions and provoking actions?

Difference between looking for tells in how they respond and looking for motivation behind actions they take.

Do you think it's a mistake for me to be open about how I play?

3) Pro-town/anti-town is not the same as towny/scummy. Pro-town behavior can be town-motivated or scum-motivated, as can anti-town behavior.

I agree with the idea that pro-town behavior can be scum-motivated. I can also think of an example of where anti-town behavior would not necessarily be scum-motivated.

When is anti-town behavior town-motivated?

Town players are constantly making anti-town plays. It's usually unintentional unless they're trying some ill-advised gambit. The point is, just because someone does something anti-town - like the Town Tracker who quick-hammered day one in my last game - doesn't mean it's scum-motivated.

4) Using your vote is inherently* pro-town. Having your vote in play, even if your reads are weak, is always* helpful, even if you're scum, because a) seeing how people are voting cuts through a lot of nonsense and b) withholding your vote means robbing town of your most potent weapon and literally the only one that actually catches scum.
* The exception, of course, is when voting would cause a premature lynch.

I actually just disagree here unless we have a semantic difference. Scum players can use their votes to create a fruitless wagon to change the topic of discussion. They can also hide in the middle of a wagon on a town player. Finally, voting for the sake of voting without giving much explanation for the vote cannot be pro-town. If you're town, that makes you look scummy when you do that, potentially wasting one if town's valuable Days.

I do agree that hammering without town being on more or less the same page is a bad course of action.

Semantic difference, I think. If everyone is being cautious with their votes, it's easier for scum to hide without having to defend their choices. If town decides that withholding your vote is mildly scummy, scum will be forced to make an effort to pretend to scum hunt, and town will be forced to actually scum hunt instead of coasting towards deadline and settling on some last minute candidate. I subscribe to the Thor school of day one voting.

[Lafayette]

@lay:

Explain to me how I’m supposed to have sold reads by page 2?

I definitely don't think you'd have solid reads by page 2. (See: all early game read are tentative) But in Micro 820, you had tentative reads as early as post 12.

[Lafayette]

Explain to me how I’m supposed to have sold reads by page 2?

I definitely don't think you'd have solid reads by page 2. (See: all early game read are tentative) But in Micro 820, you had tentative reads as early as post 12.

Different though. I replaced in rather than starting from Day1; post 1.

Different circumstances, that's certainly true.

Nothing pinging yet?

[Lafayette]

I agree with Micc on principle that presenting a theory of good game play isn't a good gauge of alignment and there are probably better posts to focus on in that regard, but to be fair to myself and those referencing it, the bottom of post 49 is pretty game-specific.

[Lafayette]

Just wanna say that I am going to leave the thread until tomorrow morning. I personally now believe that it was a huge mistake for be so naive regarding Malakittens and that I should have just kept my vote on her. It's your own choice whether you believe the following statement or not, but I am just a clueless townie who has no idea what he's doing. Hopefully tomorrow I will be in the right frame of mind to continue posting.

Goodnight everyone

I wouldn't call it a huge mistake. The game is just starting, everyone is still getting their bearings, and nothing is irreversible.

[Lafayette]

Okay, I'll try to keep all of your points in mind in future. I guess I could say that it was just part of my own playstyle for me to be averse to putting people at L-2 this early. I'll try not to be so reluctant next time...

If you're thinking of following my lead, just bear in mind that last game I had three very good reads, two pretty good ones, and three very bad ones.

[Lafayette]

I liked Egi’s posts even if everyone else doesn’t.

Same

So far everyone else needs to post more.

Post count-wise, seems pretty evenly spread to me. Votes being cast, accusations being leveled, Saudade doing whatever the f he's doing.

[Lafayette]

If he's scum and really thinks it was a PR slip, what's the purpose of saying so in the game thread? Is he just really bad at being scum? I'm not seeing this.

[Lafayette]

Was going to point out that it's not necessarily AI because his posts were similarly awkward in the game I just looked at but it turned out he was a day one scum lynch lol

Need to sleep on this though

[Lafayette]

Yeah I wasn’t going to be the one that pointed out Saudade post like that

What do you make of this e wagon?

[Lafayette]

Egix, the worst thing you could do for your win condition, whether you're town (which I think you are) or scum, is self-destruct. Literally everything else is better. Just stumble through as best as you can, get comfortable with the idea that you're going to make mistakes, and if you lose, you lose, who cares it's just a game, and it's not all on you.

[Lafayette]

I can see town making a note that Saudade is crumbing a power role. I don't see town outing him for doing so. What benefit to town is there in doing that? I really don't like that, and it feels like it was a scum move.

What benefit to scum is there in doing that?

[Lafayette]

This game has the weirdest vibe

[Lafayette]

What do you make of this e wagon?

I’m okay with it. I wanna see where it leads

Okay, well we're on page 7 now, which is plenty of content even by e standards, and lots of people have posted more, so any time you want to start sharing some actual opinions would be great.

I kind of think the e wagon is a sideshow and still think you're scummier.

[Lafayette]

@Lafayette: You said you'd sleep on it. Now that you have, what do you think of e's decision?

He has two posts that feel kind of like half-assed prod dodges to me, and reveal a careless mindset that's not AI.

@Micc:
I have a two-word case: Active lurking.

More specifically, she's offered no opinions other than everyone is null except Egix, who's town.

pedit: yes, and the RVS vote

[Lafayette]

I’m not active lurking. I’m actually commenting on posts. Okay yes maybe I haven’t moved my RVS vote, but I fail to see why that’s scummy in itself. I can’t vote who I would like to vote because that’d be hammering. No one else stands out as of yet. So here I don’t understand why it’s scummy

Commenting on posts without really saying anything is what makes it active lurking rather than plain old lurking.

This is the first time you're saying you'd like to vote for e. There have been at least a couple different justifications for the votes in his wagon. Why do YOU think he's scummy?

[Lafayette]

I don't understand why people replace in to games and then don't play

[Lafayette]

I’m not active lurking. I’m actually commenting on posts. Okay yes maybe I haven’t moved my RVS vote, but I fail to see why that’s scummy in itself. I can’t vote who I would like to vote because that’d be hammering. No one else stands out as of yet. So here I don’t understand why it’s scummy

Commenting on posts without really saying anything is what makes it active lurking rather than plain old lurking.

This is the first time you're saying you'd like to vote for e. There have been at least a couple different justifications for the votes in his wagon. Why do YOU think he's scummy?

Bro. We are in very early game while I appreciate the pressure on me the more you do it the more it’s starting to bother me. He legit just replaced in and made a horrible post and I want to see his reactions from it. He hasn’t posted since so I can’t decIde how I feel at the moment.

I feel like you’re posturing your read on me so either vote me now and make a case or just please let me be and let me sort my reads how I do. When I feel like I don’t or do like something I’ll point it out. Patientlce is a key.

I'm sorry my pressing on my top scum read bothers you.

[Lafayette]

It’s more because when you first voted me there was no reasons and the more you post the more it’s like you’re tunneling and fabricating a case at this point

It's been the same case since I voted.

[Lafayette]

I wish I could say I trusted Lafayette, but his play seems kind of esoteric and I worry that he’s leveraging his experience to make himself appear to legitimately know stuff that the rest of us missed.

My lifetime experience is 7 Newbie games, 1 Open game, plus my first game ever which was a werewolf game on another site.

I try to play pretty straightforward and transparent. What seems esoteric about it?

[Lafayette]

Also, regarding "make himself appear to legitimately know stuff that the rest of us missed". This feels backwards because I feel like when it comes to e I'm missing what the rest of you are seeing.

[Lafayette]

My lifetime experience is 7 Newbie games, 1 Open game, plus my first game ever which was a werewolf game on another site.

I try to play pretty straightforward and transparent. What seems esoteric about it?

Your stance on 2.718 is different from pretty much everyone else's stance. What's truly baffling about it is that the exact reason you use to suspect Malakittens, which is as follows....

More specifically, she's offered no opinions other than everyone is null except Egix, who's town.

....is literally one of the exact reasons why people suspect 2.718 of guilt, who as you recall, said this:

I use a 0-8 scale (0 = scum, 8 = town, 4 = neutral) and right now everyone is a 4.

Isn't that the exact sort of thing that trips your scumdar? And yet you don't see the case against 2.718 for doing the exact same thing?

I acknowledge that it COULD be similar. Or it could just be someone flaking on the game. It's the difference between doing nothing while actively engaged in the game (scummy) vs doing nothing while flaking (null).

[Lafayette]

So your case is what. I’m too friendly of a person because when you first voted it was well ‘im going to give you a third vote in RVS.’ Then you decided to argue against what Egi has thought of me while stating that you thought I was overfriendly. So why not state that in the very beginning

It wasn't an RVS vote, and my case wasn't that you were too friendly it was that you were friendly to the exclusion of doing anything to help the town. I was also making a separate point that we shouldn't be afraid to vote to L-2.

Your most recent posts have seemed townier though.

[Lafayette]

But it was page 2. =_=

But it continued to page 7.

What’s towny about my posts?

Exasperation starting at 172 seems real, not caught scum faking it. Sharper opinions. Starting to probe and push.

[Lafayette]

Hmm alright. So which two are the most likely to be scum in your book? You seem to have stopped believing that Malakittens is one of them. You don't see a case against 2.718 and you don't think Egix's freak-out is AI. So who does that leave?

I'm not sure yet. The quick wagon on e raised all sorts of red flags for me, so I wouldn't be surprised if there's scum on there. Micc telling me to pay no mind to the thing that gave me pause about the case for the wagon was a little off-putting, but other than that his push seems town-motivated. Saudade's gonzo playstyle is hard to read but so far I've felt pretty good about it. If there's scum on the wagon, I'm placing bets on you or Ethos. Didn't like your 136 or Ethos's 143 & 144.

I thought Egix was obvious town up until his last post. I'm still leaning town, but his exit was so extreme I'm less sure now. If there's scum off the wagon I think it's more likely Alpaca or e.

[Lafayette]

If you didn’t like post 136 and think it actually means something, then Egix is guilty by default. It’s the only context in which the scum version of myself makes any sense. If I were scum and Egix were innocent, I wouldn’t have found his reaction “unfortunate” in the slightest.

Except the reason I didn't like it was that you felt the need to pre-emptively clarify that it wasn't a scum slip.

[Lafayette]

I'm placing bets on you or Ethos. Didn't like your 136 or Ethos's 143 & 144.

What's your problem with the two posts of mine you linked?

143 sounded like you hadn't really thought about why scum might do it and were just bs'ing, and 144 sounded like you realized it was a bad answer and had to clean it up.

[Lafayette]

If there's scum off the wagon I think it's more likely Alpaca or e.

Assuming you're taking about the wagon on 2.718: Why Alpaca? Why would scum bus e so soon?

Bus? Who would be busing in this situation?

Alpaca because I don't have him sorted as town yet.

@Lafayette: Are you just doing process of elimination, or how are you coming to these conclusions?

It's process of elimination to narrow the pool. But not "just".

[Lafayette]

If you didn’t like post 136 and think it actually means something, then Egix is guilty by default. It’s the only context in which the scum version of myself makes any sense. If I were scum and Egix were innocent, I wouldn’t have found his reaction “unfortunate” in the slightest.

Except the reason I didn't like it was that you felt the need to pre-emptively clarify that it wasn't a scum slip.

I didn’t need you to clarify that.

What I said still stands.

Scum can't express fake remorse?

[Lafayette]

Bus? Who would be busing in this situation?

If scum is on the wagon for red!e, they are bussing e. Nothing e has done this game has shown town motivation. I don't think it's fair to assume as you are that e is town.

Wait. What?

[Lafayette]

Wait. What?

What confused you?
Currently there is a wagon on e.
If e is scum and if another scum player is on the wagon, then the other scum player is bussing e.
You are assuming that e is town.
e has not shown town motivation.
Your assumption is not valid.

Currently there is a wagon on e.
If e is NOT scum and if a scum player is on the wagon, then the scum player is NOT busing e.

I'm not assuming either way. You're assuming that e is scum and also that scum wouldn't bus their partner early. Which seems pretty towny actually.

[Lafayette]

Alpaca because I don't have him sorted as town yet.

What did you think of the read list alpaca provided?

Over-confident, probably wrong.

[Lafayette]

If you didn’t like post 136 and think it actually means something, then Egix is guilty by default. It’s the only context in which the scum version of myself makes any sense. If I were scum and Egix were innocent, I wouldn’t have found his reaction “unfortunate” in the slightest.

Except the reason I didn't like it was that you felt the need to pre-emptively clarify that it wasn't a scum slip.

I didn’t need you to clarify that.

What I said still stands.

Scum can't express fake remorse?

What is the remorse about?

Yes, I am testing you here to see if you get it right.

Feeling bad for him that he outed himself as scum when he was just trying to help his partner.

How'd I do, prof?

[Lafayette]

If he was scum he would have gotten anxious and self destructed in the mafia thread not here. It’s also pretty clear he wasn’t being coached.

Uh that’s if mafia have day talk imo

They do (see "Spoiler: Sample Role PMs" in post 2)

[Lafayette]

Feeling bad for him that he outed himself as scum when he was just trying to help his partner.

How'd I do, prof?

Yeah alright, I wasn’t sure if you understood. You obviously understand the intent of my second post then if this is your reply. Which makes me wonder why you think it was scummy when it clearly accomplished what it was intended to accomplish.

Regardless, this is a dead end. Just remember to follow this theory through to its logical conclusion. If you’re right about what I said, it makes Egix and myself scummates by default.

How is this not a logical possibility?

Scum!Ninja to Town!Egix: "Oh man, I'm so sorry about you being scum."

[Lafayette]

Same reason scum you would call out any townie as scum. Not sure how you're insisting there's some sort of logical inconsistency there.

[Lafayette]

My point is, there's a third logical possibility where scum you SAYS you find it unfortunate when you don't ACTUALLY find it unfortunate.

It feels like you honestly can't see this, which comes across as town.

[Lafayette]

No, but not sure where I'm voting yet.

[Lafayette]

My point is, there's a third logical possibility where scum you SAYS you find it unfortunate when you don't ACTUALLY find it unfortunate.

It feels like you honestly can't see this, which comes across as town.

If this were actually what you were trying to get at from the start, you would have highlighted post 135 where I made that statement, not post 136 which only made it clear that I hadn’t put any forethought into my statement, something I would have had to have done if I were really clever enough to go for this kind of sleight of hand.

I think you had to readjust your accusation midstream to save face.

You're confusing me challenging your logic that those posts make a scum you/ town Egix world impossible with me making an accusation of scum you framing Egix.

[Lafayette]

I mean, isn’t it far more likely to think that scum me said “it’s unfortunate that he’s probably toast” and then think “oh shit! I can’t have people thinking I just accidentally said my teammate might die” and then had to write my next post to backpedal. From a scum-hunting townie standpoint, that’s a far easier case to make, and I assumed that’s exactly why my clarification post tripped you up. And when it became clear that this doesn’t add up (since I led the charge against this guy even before he blew up), knowing you had so few alternatives for scumspects, you were forced to tweak your argument so you could still make it seem like you’re scum hunting.

That’s my current working theory.

Who's town, then? e or the Egix slot?

[Lafayette]

No, but not sure where I'm voting yet.

So basically you’re holding your vote on me like I have been on Micc.

UNVOTE: micc

Yeah basically

[Lafayette]

If there's scum off the wagon I think it's more likely Alpaca or e.

Assuming you're taking about the wagon on 2.718: Why Alpaca? Why would scum bus e so soon?

Why wouldn’t scum bus so soon?

A reason why they wouldn't is because it is still pretty early in Day 1. I still ask Why would they?

Early wagons often fall apart. Establishes early town cred if they flip scum later.

[Lafayette]

@acr:

Why vote Saudade over the Egi slot?

Good question

[Lafayette]

Who's town, then? e or the Egix slot?

My scum pool isn't limited to just 2 individuals.

You are on the scum side of null for me, but I can't call you full scum just yet. The brief nature of your posts is a little concerning as they seem more like snipes than they do like fully fleshed-out and well-reasoned contributions. Not that I'm saying you don't have the rationale for your opinions, but when you only feed us one or two sentences at a time, it's hard to know where you're coming from or how you came about with your conclusions. Frankly it's a little odd that you wrote post 49 with so much detail and hashed-out thought, and ever since then your contributions are all quite choppy.

I don't know what to tell you. Sometimes I'm sitting at a PC. A lot of times I'm posting from my phone. Sometimes there are several connected things or a chain of reasoning that I want to respond to. A lot of times there's just one or two points that I have a relevant response to. Sometimes I have a pretty clear theory of the game state that I want to pursue/prosecute. A lot of times I'm less certain where to press.

Are there specific conclusions you're unclear about how I arrived at them? Are you just wishing I responded more directly to your theory about me? It's garbage, but in past experience, wall-for-wall attempts to debunk stuff like this just makes people dig in and tunnel and clutter the game thread with tedious walls that make it harder for everyone to hunt scum.

49 was mostly a theory post of thoughts that I'd mulled over thinking about mafia in general, not really game specific. When I sat down to write it I wasn't even looking at the game except for the last part.

[Lafayette]

Okay I see the case on e now.

[Lafayette]

Okay I see the case on e now.

This is a good example of what I was talking about earlier. What sticks out to you? What's the case you would make, the key points that make you suspicious? Why did you change your mind, or what caused you to change your mind?

The possibility that his first posts were just half assed prod dodging/flaking is eliminated by the fact that he spent an hour putting together a pair of posts at least as worthless.

As long as you're the only one shading me I'm not going to keep doing this.

[Lafayette]

He's just overwhelmed
you expect him to do things but he's a newbie and some of this is really beyond him at this point as any alignment

Who are you talking about?

[Lafayette]

@Ninja you said before you worried about me using my experience as leverage, and you seem really bothered by me not always being explicit about my thought process, yet you seem super trusting of Saudade. What's that all about?

[Lafayette]

You think it's a bad wagon?

Why is Alpaca better?

[Lafayette]

We’ve both reached the same conclusions. And for now I don’t really see anything from his end that I want to investigate.

Does this mean you've also concluded that e is just an overwhelmed newbie and you'd also like to lynch Alpaca instead?

[Lafayette]

Not really. Just seeing if you're operating out of some principle about how people should play or just tunneling.

[Lafayette]

All right.

VOTE: Alpaca

I'm sad you missed out on another 30 hours of discussion and haven't gotten this mess sorted out for us yet.

[Lafayette]

Lafayette

is a bit harder to pin down for me, but I lean town on him. He shows an interest in scum hunting. I'll definitely look hard at this slot if 2.718 flips red this game.

I understand the thinking here because I feel like this has happened a lot when I've been vocally skeptical of a quick group-thinky easy day one wagon. What I don't understand is why people so often stop the thought process there and fail to consider that scum are rarely so obvious about their partners.

This is also just a weird equation you have set up. You're pretty sure e is scum - he's your strongest scum-read - and you're pretty sure that if e is scum then I'm more likely to also be scum... yet I'm in your town-lean pool.

[Lafayette]

I disagree with 2 of your 3 reads

Which do you agree with? I can't even make sense of the Egix one.

Egix: 3.5 and poised to soar
Saudade: 2.75, down from an even 3
Mala: 5.25

[Lafayette]

How are they worthless?

I just didn't think your analysis added anything to the game. Your faux-precision on your scoring reads like nonsense. Like, for the Egix slot, you say there are posts that "look sort of telling" in his interaction with Saudade, but conclude that he's likely town, yet leans slightly scum - 3.5 - because "entangled with Saudade", yet you expect that score to "soar". How does this help? The score at best muddles what you're trying to say and at worst is an attempt to make it seem like you're doing some real analysis when in fact you already know how we're all sorted.

And the questions at the end were just so incredibly basic it's like you couldn't think of anything specific to ask. Perhaps because you already know who we are.

We’ve both reached the same conclusions. And for now I don’t really see anything from his end that I want to investigate.

Does this mean you've also concluded that e is just an overwhelmed newbie and you'd also like to lynch Alpaca instead?

I cannot parse a post that has both "also" and "instead" on the same person (Alpaca).

Try this, then.

"Does this mean that, like Saudade, you've concluded that e is just an overwhelmed newbie and that, like Saudade, you'd now like to lynch Alpaca instead of e?

[Lafayette]

I'm not going to avoid the possibility of scum playing poorly or suboptimally. If town can do it, scum can too.

Good point. It's just tiresome every time I'm like "hey guys I think this speed wagon might be bad" there's always someone who goes "whoa buddy, everyone else thinks this is a witch, what are you, some kind of witch?"

[Lafayette]

You're pretty sure e is scum - he's your strongest scum-read - and you're pretty sure that if e is scum then I'm more likely to also be scum... yet I'm in your town-lean pool.

You're in my town-lean pool and not my town pool. Flips give information, and it's important to reexamine significant interactions in the context of new information.

True. I would just caution based on personal experience against going too far down the road of speculating what flips might mean before they happen, and especially against too much previewing these speculations in the thread because scum can use this info to help them select who to keep alive.

[Lafayette]

Which do you agree with? I can't even make sense of the Egix one.

Uhh, him and I are both reading mala as town. I thought I had stated reads my reads pretty clearly so I didn't expect that to be hard to hash out.

No, your reads were clear but his weren't, to me at least. I couldn't make his scoring system match what he was saying.

[Lafayette]

This is the only substantive contribution from Alpaca. I can't say I disagree with any of it.

This cannot be true. You can't both find zero disagreement with Alpaca's read list and want to lynch 2.718 today. Alpaca saw 2.718's wagon as a mislynch based on a joke.

This. Pretty jarring set of posts there ninja.

[Lafayette]

L-1 I believe BTW

[Lafayette]

Lafayette voted for Alpaca presumably due to inactivity.

I voted because he was so bummed to miss the beginning of the game and expressed such confidence in his reads, and then let 30 hours go by, during which he logged in and presumably checked in on the game. Or maybe he was just checking his other thread.

[Lafayette]

He's pressed like four players in his last few posts, you're not being singled out?

[Lafayette]

Just because someone raises an eyebrow at something you say or do doesn't mean they're trying to put a wagon on you.

How does he know what's a wasted effort of he doesn't press red flags and see where they go? Tunneling on two people is wasted effort if they're both town. How would that be productive?

If he's town, then by definition he doesn't know with total certainty whether you are. I get being frustrated when you're pressed, but like, that's the game.

[Lafayette]

Also consider this. At some point, if you remain alive, you will be pressed by scum. If you've already been pressed by town - who are operating in good faith - and satisfied them, it will be harder for scum to make a bad faith case based on the red flags that popped out for town.

[Lafayette]

Has it occurred to you that what you call "sniping" might have a purpose not entirely unlike a vote with a withheld explanation?

Some of what you are calling "sniping" is just echoing, which has the added value of highlighting and expressing agreement. It reduces the possibility of something I'd like to see addressed being forgotten, glossed over, or ignored.

[Lafayette]

What do you think of my stance on Saudade?

I disagree that there would be anything unethical about him exploiting his experience as scum in any way short of actually cheating, but other than that it's pretty reasonable.

[Lafayette]

@MOD: I will be V/LA this weekend.

[Lafayette]

@Saw Daddy: Why is Alpaca a better wagon than e?

You think it's a bad wagon?

Why is Alpaca better?

[Lafayette]

I think it's safe to assume that THS and Alpaca have flaked and are about to be replaced. Figure at least a full day before replacements arrive, which puts them during my V/LA. I don't want any part of a hammer I'm absent for without knowing anything about the replacement.

UNVOTE:

[Lafayette]

I wouldn't mind if this happened during my absence though

VOTE: Malakittens

[Lafayette]

Phone skimming:

@THS, hi. what does pfp mean?
@ninja, THS=The Holy Spirit

[Lafayette]

@THS, what's your experience with this game? What kind of activity level can we expect from you? Please don't say 60 hour prod cycles.

[Lafayette]

The only thing that changed between when you L-1/unvoted the first time and when you L-1 the second time was he was about hit his prod deadline.

[Lafayette]

And THS possibly would have lolhammered if I hadn't unvoted.

[Lafayette]

The site activity happened before you L-1'd the first time. Why did you vote the first time?

[Lafayette]

We should certainly wait before dropping any hammers, but there's at least one scum in the game who's Not Alpaca. It kind of sounds like you're suggesting we put the whole game on hold.

[Lafayette]

thats exactly what i said

Explain your reasoning. Seems really dumb to me to pause a game that has eight players present. Like really dumb.

[Lafayette]

Good because I still don't see your reason and would still like you to explain further. Maybe I'm just stood and can't read between the lines, so instead of hunting and expecting me to understand help me out.

[Lafayette]

Ebwop maybe I'm just stupid

[Lafayette]

Ebwop instead of hinting

[Lafayette]

I'm sorry I still don't get it. We should pause the game until you get responses from your votes?

[Lafayette]

Who have you cleared as town for today?

[Lafayette]

Hey guys I have a great idea, why don't we all just fart around and prod dodge until deadline and then make a last minute lynch.

[Lafayette]

Which of those three do you think it is?

I think I can almost drop 3, because when I made that post I thought it was SN that asked about Mala, not you (LE). So I am guessing it is probably more likely 2 than 1.

I would have rather you

explain

what you thought the contradiction was when I clearly searched and found nothing, than have you just put the spotlight back on me. If this is really just a difference of opinion, then I will definitely not be finding it on my own without

some

guidance.

I don't know what you mean exactly by a contradiction, but I guess you could characterize her two votes on Alpaca as a contradiction.

@Mala:

The site activity happened before you L-1'd the first time. Why did you vote the first time?

[Lafayette]

also if you don't know where my reads stand you should read the thread more because ive been pretty clear about what my lynch pool is

Ninja is right that you were pretty clear THS was NOT in your lynch pool right up until you voted for him.

[Lafayette]

As I've already explained, I'm voting because the only thing that changed between her two L-1 votes on Alpaca was that he was about to be replaced.

It seemed to come out of nowhere and the timing felt really fishy.

[Lafayette]

You can click ISO on the mod Huntress and see the official vote counts, but those are just snapshots. No easy way that I know of to just see vote posts.

[Lafayette]

What's your prior experience with this game?

[Lafayette]

Baaaaaa

VOTE: 2.7

[Lafayette]

I'm happy to get a claim from him at this point.

[Lafayette]

He's played a few games on this site, so he knows what town players are supposed to do, and he was under a lot of pressure, so he wasn't going to just be able to skate by.

His reads just seem exceptionally forced regardless of exp, imo.

I would like to get other players impressions before forcing a claim, but this is a good wagon.

[Lafayette]

Dusk reads

Saw Daddy: Town. Has good ideas and pursues them stubbornly, gets annoyed if you try to push him to do something different.

Mala: Town. Literally phoning it in because of current work situation, mutual trust with Saudade based on meta, so seems to be following his lead more or less, reads seem highly correlated with OMGUS.

Ninja: Town. Careful read of the game, leaves no stone unturned, notices dissonance and demands explanation for it, genuinely perplexed and irritated that anyone would read him as anything but obvtown.

Micc: Town. Aggressively pushes wagons, good broad-stroke town hunting as well as scum hunting to narrow the first lynch pool, uses exp to knock down weak theories rather than inflate them.

Alien: Town. Initial perspective on the game valid and well-supported, effort to sort people seems good faith, assertive reads based on natural questions and thought process.

Lynch pool -

2.7: Top choice. Struggles to put together anything that really resembles the game state, pushes seem unstructured and forced.

THS: Plan B. Egix's last post broke my initial town read, and THS didn't fix it. Also a little PoE.

Ethos: If all else fails. PoE. Haven't cleared as town for today. Mostly seems to be methodically sorting, but I sometimes get the sense that cases are overwrought, votes too carefully positioned. Fuzziest read.

[Lafayette]

I wouldn't mind if this happened during my absence though

VOTE: Malakittens

Oh by the way. Why did you vote Mala here? I don't think a reason was ever stated, unless I missed it. Just trying to see where everyone is coming from.

423
424
426
457
462

[Lafayette]

Also, depending on what happens after a claim, we may need that time. Better to get a claim with time left before deadline.

[Lafayette]

Saw Daddy

BTW, I looked up what Saudade means (beautiful word) and how to pronounce it (something close-ish to Sow Dodge-eh to my American ears), but "Saw Daddy" is the best thing Egix contributed to this game IMO.

[Lafayette]

Saudade, why is Alien a better wagon than 2.7?

[Lafayette]

@Saudade why are you ignoring this game bruh? Clock is ticking. You're sharing your Alien wagon with a sheep, a flake, and the other wagon. Why is it better?

[Lafayette]

Sorry

[Lafayette]

I haven't been paying too close attention to your posts since I put you in my town pile tbh, and since your vote technically hasn't actually moved since Alien replaced in, I misremembered how that wagon went. Deepest apologies for lumping you in with those hooved cud chewing grass eaters.

[Lafayette]

Also lafayette i was asleep dont be a creep

I meant when you were on the site earlier doing a bunch of stuff but didn't touch this game.

Do you think there's scum on the 2.7 wagon right now?

[Lafayette]

Any reason we shouldn't speed wagon Alien and force a claim?

VOTE: Alien

[Lafayette]

Any reason we shouldn't speed wagon Alien and force a claim?

VOTE: Alien

Why do you want to do this quickly? Are you afraid he'll sway everyone's opinion or something?

Because his hammer was sketch af

[Lafayette]

@alien, you said you've read a lot of games. Did the games you've read topically end day one without getting a claim and discussion before the hammer? If so, how did people react to the hammer on the morning of day two?

Pedit: the self preservation seemed especially scummy since he didn't seem very sold on the 2.7 wagon

[Lafayette]

It’s weird how you state he didn’t seem sold on the wagon, but he was a scum read

Re-read 539

[Lafayette]

Well he's been on the site. Must have just posted in his other thread.

[Lafayette]

I don't understand. Did you think you were in danger of being hammered before having a chance to claim? Everyone else was on one of the wagons already, they would have had to move. Why would they hammer without your claim? We had like a day and a half of real time before deadline when you hammered.

[Lafayette]

ebwop, good chance we'd have had an extension on the day too to get a replacement for THS

[Lafayette]

Also assuming you're not lying, next time wait until you have a wagon with intent to hammer (or some other turning point in the game) before making a claim like this.

UNVOTE:

[Lafayette]

So make of this what you will. I just don't feel like explaining the fact that I changed my read on 2.7. I'm more of an intuition player and I pick up on vibes and sometimes realize I was very wrong or disagree with a popular lynch. Sorry if that makes me look scum, but I dont go with the crowd unless it feels right.

Changing your read wasn't scummy. Voting for someone who you changed your read on (from scum to town) to save your own neck, without waiting for a claim and discussion, and when there wasn't even any intent to hammer on you, was scummy.

[Lafayette]

Why is it bizarre that I wanted a speed wagon to force a claim (which you should have waited for before claiming btw)? Your hammer and your reasoning for it was bad. If you're telling the truth you didn't make a good play, you got lucky.

@Saudade, I guess this means you're not claiming? Or at least you're claiming Not Doc and Not Cop?

[Lafayette]

You claimed anyway, what's the difference? How the fuck do I know you're a power role if you don't claim?

[Lafayette]

You claimed anyway, what's the difference? How the fuck do I know you're a power role if you don't claim?

What's with the frustration here? Why aren't you thinking through any of the stuff I just thought through? I think it's impossible for Alien to lie about any of this.

Seems highly likely you're Saudade's teammate if this is really how you're going about this.

Because he's being cocky and acting like I'm an idiot for wanting to wring info out of him for a play that was scummy on its face. Sorry, I'm done.

Just waiting to see if anyone else claims.

[Lafayette]

I haven't read through 691 in detail yet ninja, but if Alien is scum then he has a 1/3 chance of guessing the setup, which changes the strength of point 1 somewhat.

Pedit: that's true of any fake claim. Buys scum a day if it works.

[Lafayette]

You claimed anyway, what's the difference? How the fuck do I know you're a power role if you don't claim?

What's with the frustration here? Why aren't you thinking through any of the stuff I just thought through? I think it's impossible for Alien to lie about any of this.

Seems highly likely you're Saudade's teammate if this is really how you're going about this.

Because he's being cocky and acting like I'm an idiot for wanting to wring info out of him for a play that was scummy on its face. Sorry, I'm done.

Just waiting to see if anyone else claims.

You don't have to be an "idiot" to be someone who makes a move he doesn't like. I didn't see him calling you an idiot at all.

I think it's in our best interests to hold off on claims as much as possible, isn't it? Just because Alien did doesn't mean everyone needs to.

If today still ended with a mislynch and scum knew all the roles and uncovered the possible doctor's existence, that guarantees their night kill.

Someone might have a claim that contradicts a Neopolitan setup. Not sure what optimal play is in that case (Micc?) but would potentially be a reason to claim.

[Lafayette]

A fair number also already said they would vote for him. What's with the hard defense?

Saudade is calling him a prick because Alien called him a prick.

[Lafayette]

Ninja if Saudade is telling the truth then he knows with total certainty that Alien is scum.

[Lafayette]

A fair number also already said they would vote for him. What's with the hard defense?.

I’m just trying to create discussion.

You need to define “a fair number” explicitly or else the point isn’t relevant. Were there FOUR people who were absolutely going to lynch him? One of the people voting him is dead and another’s vote was parked on him by a player that isn’t here anymore. Even with your switch, if we went off yesterday’s vote, that’s only 3 people (you, saudade, and Mala) who would lynch him. Everyone else, as far as I can recall, expressed their view that they trust Alien. So I don’t see the votes happening.

Just because you view the hammer vote as overwhelmingly scummy evidence doesn’t mean others will too.

I'm talking about today. Three people already expressed interest in voting for him before he claimed. You suggested his claim is more credible because he wasn't feeling any pressure.

[Lafayette]

I'm pretty sure we should lynch Saudade unless someone counterclaims Neopolitan or claims a PR other than Cop or Doc.

[Lafayette]

I mean, scum can plan lies ahead of time.

He's not confirmed town yet. Just treat him as not yet confirmed is all I'm saying.

[Lafayette]

I thought he was an odd choice, but maybe they just saw something that made them think he was a PR.

[Lafayette]

Shouldn't we just claim whether or not our role contradicts a Neopolitan setup?

[Lafayette]

Doesn't it hurt us to out the other PR if it's JUST a Doc or Cop, though?

[Lafayette]

and we want a cop plus doc setup to be public anyway because it leads to a confirmed town in the 4v1 which is the best we're going to get out of today.

Not sure I follow who is in the 4v1? There’s 5 town and 2 scum, yes?

Tomorrow

[Lafayette]

If we get Cop + Doc claims how do we know Alien's is the fake claim?

[Lafayette]

Got it. I'm sold.

[Lafayette]

So we wait for NK15 to pick the next person to claim?

[Lafayette]

Strategy wise, it's best to pick your scummiest read from the remaining players when you popcorn, right?

[Lafayette]

Is "almost 50" an inside joke?

[Lafayette]

People shouldn't claim results until after mass roleclaims, right, or do they claim results at the same time?

[Lafayette]

[Lafayette]

VT

@Mala, your turn

[Lafayette]

I'm seeing no reason to lynch anyone but Saudade. What's the best PR strategy? We basically have two cops now.

[Lafayette]

Why is today's lynch in the air? Only way Alien is scum is if we're in a C world and they took a giant gamble.

Pedit: good idea

[Lafayette]

Why is today's lynch in the air? Only way Alien is scum is if we're in a C world and they took a giant gamble.

Pedit: good idea

If only you'd realized that this morning before I had to out myself when I was trying to convince you of this exact thing....

1. It wasn't true before we had other claims.
2. I was initially advising only claiming if it contradicted a Neo setup anyway so fuck off.

[Lafayette]

Ninja is a cop not a doc

[Lafayette]

We only get a result in the morning if Saudade is the roleblocker, otherwise they'll lol one of you and block the other.

[Lafayette]

Kill not lol

Lol

[Lafayette]

Yeah, it has to be one of us three except on the off chance Alien pulled some Gonzo stunt that worked.

Pedit @mala

[Lafayette]

Problem with casing each other now is scum uses that to decide who to keep alive.

Need more NK input anyway.

[Lafayette]

Problem with casing each other now is scum uses that to decide who to keep alive.

...yeah, I guess that's true. Kind of makes it hard to move forward though.

Need more NK input anyway.

This would be really nice.

I mean, confirmed/semi- confirmed townies don't have that problem, so nothing wrong with you casing us and freely scum hunting I think.

[Lafayette]

Lafay: i really wish you had a scum game on site >.>

Sorry I can't oblige you, I've literally never rolled scum, either here or the first game I played which was on a different site.

[Lafayette]

So I'm forming an analysis of the play by play iso of Mala, Not Know/THS/Egix, and Lafayette and what I think it all means to me. Does anyone object to me posting it when it's done? Or should I hold off?

Also, I feel stupid, but I can't figure out how to get a post to show up as a clickable number. I just want this to be readable.

I'm okay with it

[Lafayette]

you mean like this alien?

if so [ post=#] text etc [ /post]

without the spaces

You can also just wrap the post number in post tags like

Code: Select all

[post]123[/post]

[Lafayette]

Wait, I just realized something. Scum is not going to be choosing which of the three of me, Mala, and NK goes in to LyLo, because they have to kill confirmed townies.

Town will have an opportunity tomorrow to lynch one of us, and if we miss, we've narrowed the scum pool to two in a 2:1 LyLo.

I'm sure that's not news to some of you, but I was looking at it wrong before.

[Lafayette]

In that case, I feel pretty comfortable saying I probably want to lynch NK tomorrow. But that's all I'm going to say about that atm.

[Lafayette]

If you lynch me tomorrow, you're going to need another lynch, so between Mala and NK, who would you like?

[Lafayette]

Ebwop who would you lynch?

[Lafayette]

"This completely contradicts wanting to speed wagon me on day 2..."

No it doesn't, I was pissed at him, too. The reverse is also true. Just because anti-town behavior is someone town often does doesn't mean it's more likely to be town. It just means it's not enough on its own and had to be considered in context. I gave you the context for why your hammer was scummy.

[Lafayette]

It sounds like you won't believe me, but by the end of the day I was starting to worry about the 2.7 wagon again, which was one of the biggest reasons why I was pushing Saudade to make an actual case for the other wagon. I wanted to know if he really was seeing something that we weren't while we still had time to make a better wagon. That's another reason I was pissed about your hammer.

[Lafayette]

"Changes pressure from Mala because I replaced in? That's strange for town to just dump a read like that, even if they think they have a better read. Not natural at all."

What's this in reference to? That didn't happen.

[Lafayette]

Same question to you, too, then, ninja. Who's your number two?

[Lafayette]

It sounds like you won't believe me, but by the end of the day I was starting to worry about the 2.7 wagon again, which was one of the biggest reasons why I was pushing Saudade to make an actual case for the other wagon. I wanted to know if he really was seeing something that we weren't while we still had time to make a better wagon. That's another reason I was pissed about your hammer.

This is just pissing me off all over again. The reason I "dropped" my pressure on Saudade was BECAUSE YOU HAMMERED.

[Lafayette]

"Possibly, but you didn't even have reservations about it, given the circumstances. Like you weren't even considering them."

I wanted a claim, not a hammer. I had no reservations whatsoever about that.

[Lafayette]

Same question to you, too, then, ninja. Who's your number two?

I think you’re scum and fishing for kill order info.

I have no clue why I need to answer this.

Scum doesn't get to kill me, Mala, or NK. there are three confirmed townies, if they kill anyone else, they lose.

If you lynch me tomorrow, you'll need another lynch.

[Lafayette]

JFC. You don't even have to take my word for it. Just do the math. Or ask Micc.

[Lafayette]

You know what, I don't even care if you're paranoid about putting it in the thread. But at least give it some thought so you're not blindsided by your confusion. Just do a What If Laf Really Is Town exercise for yourself so that you have a theory started before you lynch me.

[Lafayette]

As long as he flips roleblocker we should be good, but we can still lose if he's a goon.

[Lafayette]

No.

If he flips goon, they kill a cop and block a cop and tomorrow is:
2 confirmed, 2 unconfirmed, plus an unknown scum RB

If he flips RB, they kill a cop and the other cop reports and tomorrow is:
2 confirmed, 2 unconfirmed, plus a confirmed scum goon
OR
3 confirmed, 1 unconfirmed, plus an unknown scum goon

[Lafayette]

We can legit lose with a goon flip today and two mislynches.

[Lafayette]

Yeah my reads have sucked. I really don't think I'm alone in that department this game. Any reason this is more suspicious than other players equally bad lists?

[Lafayette]

I'd like to at least see Micc's review of the game state first, esp considering he might not be around tomorrow. Anyway a confirmed townie should hammer imo

[Lafayette]

Oh yeah true

[Lafayette]

The main game mechanic thing I'd like us to work out before hammer is what optimal PR strategy is with two known cops and no roleblocker (if Saudade is a goon this is irrelevant).

They can either both go with their gut (to hide their intent from scum), they can explicitly target separate people (not sure what the advantage of this would be), or they can explicitly target the same person (to guarantee a result for that person).

[Lafayette]

Now let's say roleblocker is still left after lynch,
since there's 7 players left right now. Then next round will be 4 players, 1 mafia. I see two scenario's,
2. Mafia block one PR and kill the other. This makes the most sense, since there will be two confirmed Town left and mafia have a chance to win. Then it's between Mala, Laya, and NK. I think if NK got lynched and flipped Town, if it's between Mala and Laya, Laya is probably getting lynched and we'll see how the game ends. If Laya got lynched and flipped Town, then it's between Mala and NK and our chances of Town winning is not good anymore.

@layafette, what's your opinion on scenario 2? Are you okay with it? As town, how would you like the game to go forward?

I'm not sure exactly what you're asking me I'm okay with.

I'm not okay with being lynched on Day 4 in LyLo because that means we lose. If I'm going to be lynched it has to be tomorrow. If NK is lynched tomorrow and flips town, Mala is scum.

[Lafayette]

Okay now I'm 100% comfortable saying NK is Saudade's partner.

Pedit: Give myself an out? Think about it from town!my perspective, alien. Ffs. You need to stop tunneling.

[Lafayette]

You basically asked me, if I understand correctly, if I'm okay with an NK lynch followed by a me lynch if he flips town, and my answer is fuck no because that's a guaranteed loss. Like, what other answer would you expect?

[Lafayette]

First response in 903 is a bad look too

Pedit: I was trying to answer the question you asked me as directly as possible.

[Lafayette]

I just thought it had a blaring "How do you do, fellow townies?" feel.

Like, Ah yes, correct, this is what a town POV looks like, which gosh darn it, I should have known, as I too have a town POV.

[Lafayette]

While we're in twilight it would be fun if you tried to flesh out this fake claim theory and make all the pieces work.

[Lafayette]

Oh whoops thought it was a hammer.

VOTE: Saudade

[Lafayette]

Good game.

Alien, all's well that ends well. Sometimes theoretically "optimal" play doesn't turn out to be the best play. It could have gone very wrong but you picked a great investigation target and weren't killed so it worked out great.

@scum team, what was the thinking behind the Ethos kill?

[Lafayette]

I'm assuming the last minute push on alien was because NK knew we were about to lynch their RB and therefore win. It was literally the only move he had left, so he had to try it even if it had a very low chance of working.

[Lafayette]

Not really, he had to investigate the scum RB night 1 and scum had to miss the PRs on the lynch, the kill, and the RB in order for it to guarantee a town victory. Everything except the first mislynch worked exactly in our favor.

[Lafayette]

It's possible it's one of the least balanced newbie setups, but again, if the town PRs miss the RB or if scum hits the PRs on the kill or the RB, they still have options.

[Lafayette]

What do you think would be a better balance for scum RB? Nea/JK?

[Lafayette]

I'd say Jailkeeper/IC maybe?

What IC?

[Lafayette]

*What's