Newbie 1913 - game over!!

[brassherald]

Good evening folks, I'll be your IC today, that means inexperience challenged. In fact, I can attest to the challenged part of that title... Just a bit of humor for you.

Anyway, my role here, as IC is to help guide the new players through the workings of the site, and any terms or concepts that may come up. I will be trying to uphold the standards set forth here Please note that my role as IC should not, in any way, influence your read on me. Mafiascum assigns roles randomly, and the scum team can be any two of us.

For now, it is quite late where I am, so, I'll briefly explain the set up and RVS, tomorrow I will get to how to actually play the game.

Setup:

We are using the 2d6 system and the basic set up is that the game is randomly assigned a column, designated by a letter, which reveals which PR (that's Power Role) the mafia has, if any. Then, there is a number, which assigns up to two PRs for town. You can see the chart above for more information on each set up, but I've seen a few people confused about it.

RVS:

Games need to start somewhere, so, on mafiascum, we generally start with voting people at random and jokes until something happens which someone is ready to read. I don't know what that may be here, but we start with minimal information, and we need to get information somewhere.

Vote using the codes:

Code: Select all

[vote]Player[/vote]

or

Code: Select all

[b]Vote: Player[/b]

I strongly prefer vote tags.

You can also unvote using

Code: Select all

[unvote][/unvote]

I believe that is about all I have to cover right now, so, I will drop a random vote and go to bed, feel free to ask questions at any point, and I will answer to the best of my ability.

Also remember, this is a game about conflict, but the goal is to have fun. So, have fun out there.

VOTE: Roo

[brassherald]

VOTE: The Worst

@The Worst if you thought being the mod would stop me from voting for you during RVS, think again buddy.

Let's get a wagon going against TW!

Here's a good teaching moment for the newbies, voting the mod is never funny.

[brassherald]

VOTE: The Worst

@The Worst if you thought being the mod would stop me from voting for you during RVS, think again buddy.

Let's get a wagon going against TW!

Here's a good teaching moment for the newbies, voting the mod is never funny.

Why not?

VOTE: brass

Because the way jokes are structured is you have a set up and a punch line. This one has neither

[brassherald]

For the record, you do not need to actually unvote. I don't know if the worst prefers that you do, but it is not a requirement

[brassherald]

For the record, you do not need to actually unvote. I don't know if the worst prefers that you do, but it is not a requirement

Thanks for that, I'm pretty new to this so honestly was about to do an unvote and then vote again.

[/vote]BlankVOTE: Because he's quiet, do people ever get upset and not post because they get a role they don't like?

Also on that note, especially for the more experienced players and Brass, what are your favorite roles to play?

I strongly prefer town. In this set up, I always like getting cop or Vanilla Townie the most. Though outside of this set up, I do have to admit Vigilante is fun. A town sided Night Kill is the dream

[brassherald]

I mean, the main thing is, if I ever say anything else, I'm also pretty much inviting people post game to post all the games I lucked out of because I rolled scum.

And by people, I mean the mod

[brassherald]

An important thing to remember about the scum is that they are the informed minority here. We are a 7-2 game, where two people know everyone's alignment, and the other seven are trying to figure it out. However, those two will try to make it look like they are also trying to sort people.

There are two ideas on what to do as town. You can scumhunt, where you try to figure out who's scum from their posts, or you can townhunt to see who else is town.

I personally employ a strategy called being a paranoid idiot. Everyone starts as scum in my book, until they prove otherwise, so, I guess it is mostly a modified townhunt strategy.

And, remember, there's no "right way" to play mafia, you should just have fun.

[brassherald]

Remember, town wins are maximum fun.

[brassherald]

Only if you are town.

-1 BrassHerald for making presumed town statements.

Hi, I have no capitalization in my name, can people please get this right as I'm the only one allowed to mess with my capitalization?

[brassherald]

@brass, Do you have anything to say/any reads? You haven't been generating a lot of in-game content so far, if any.

I play things close to the chest early for sure. That being said, I random voted Roo early because it was early to type, but I haven't liked his interactions too much and so I haven't moved my vote.

The super defensive response to someone asking about an L-2 wagon on me makes me uneasy.

[brassherald]

I find it unlikely that players would admit to liking to play scum.

Being a dangerous scum player would increase the likelyhood of being lynched on that basis alone

.

What you are referring to in the bolded portion amounts to a policy lynch, which in general is anti-town unless there is a really, really good reason for doing so. Lynching someone solely on the basis that, if they are scum in the current ongoing game they are going to be really dangerous (based on their performance in previous scumgames), even if they haven't been scummy in the current ongoing game, is incredibly anti-town because they would be lynched over fear of how good they are at scum rather than because people are actually scumreading them in the current ongoing game. That's definitely not how Mafia is intended to be played, and over the long term policy lynching someone just because they are good at scum will lead to mislynches more often than not because everyone rolls town much more frequently than they do scum.

And regarding the first sentence, yes people do admit to enjoying playing scum in their ongoing town games. For example, in Newbie 1900 (link to the game: viewtopic.php?f=50&t=77781) Flavor Leaf (who was town and also the IC) openly

bragged

about how good he is at scum (links to some sample posts: viewtopic.php?p=10562672#p10562672, viewtopic.php?p=10565874#p10565874, and viewtopic.php?p=10565878#p10565878).

I will reiterate that I have actually complained multiple times that I can't find a game where I roll third party. Like, legitimately would love to get Serial Killer in a game some day. Has not yet happened. But, I am also limiting my number of games so less chance until one of my games end so I can go and find an SK game.

Serial Killer seems fun to me, is what I'm saying.

[brassherald]

Oh, and volxen is town lean from that, forgot the game relevant portion to talk about my desire to be Third Party.

[brassherald]

That's one player. That hardly makes it common or the expected answer.

Why does there have to be a common or expected answer? The question itself is about personal preference.

I mean, again, someone's preference does not determine their role in this game. I will restate that mafiascum randomizes roles and alignments, you cannot actually queue up to be town or mafia specifically unless its something similar to the Greatest Idea mafia (I think that's the one).

You can probably find the two Greatest Idea mafia where we have this discussion, actually. Micc ran both, they were micros and I was also in both, though one was as ManWithNoName.

But, legitimately, your preference does not and cannot establish your actual alignment in most games. Anything that makes it seem that way is explicitly against the rules of the site.

[brassherald]

My point is that answering that question is like answering when people ask "are you town" at the beginning of the game.

Again, it is not the same, because preference does not play into roles assigned. I just want this to be perfectly clear for anyone who may be doubting, mods are required to randomize roles and keep a record of randomizing. Your personal preference has nothing AT ALL to do with your role. Suggesting otherwise is suggesting that the games do not follow site rules.

[brassherald]

Also, based on the tone and the amount of push Yellow Snow is really levelling on this relatively useless question in the first place, I'd like to give early town lean here. I feel like a scum partner would tell him to drop it by now if he was in the scum thread.

My next post, in a few minutes provided my boss does not come into my office will be an IC teaching content post, which I will differentiate by just not talking about the in game content. I don't think I've mentioned that's what I am trying to do. I'll talk about read lists and why I don't like them, but some do.

[brassherald]

So, read lists are something people will occasionally ask for which is where you actually tier your reads on everyone.

Traditionally, the top of the list is town, some people put themselves at the very top for posture, they look something like this, using names from not this game outside of myself so no one thinks I am actually doing a read list here.
{brassherald}
{Nauci}
{Mathdino}
{ceejayvinoya}
{Gamma Emerald}

So, there, it would be I am mod confirmed town, Nauci is a town lean, Mathdino is neutral, ceejay is a scum lean, and Gamma Emerald is a straight up scum read.

Now, some people do this often and I will not ever be able to explain why, because I hate them, but it's useful to know how to read them.

Why I don't like readlists

There's two reasons here. First, they are extremely easy to fake. Take people's names, assemble them into a list that orders them, and provide no real information. I don't find it compelling to just have a list without reasons. Even with reasons, it would not be, to me, immediately clear why Gamma would be scum and ceejay is not as strong of a read.

Second, they just are not very useful to me, personally. My reads are more abstract, in general, ranking them is pretty tough, and I don't even like locking anyone as town ever. That's just how I play the game. Once I put something into a read list like this, I am less likely to question my reads later on. It's just the way I work. I would need the read list in literally every post with updates as things happen to realistically help me with my game, and no one has time for that.

So, can you do a read list?

Of course! I'm all for doing what works for you. I think I am at the point where no one will ever convince me that it is helpful, but you should be forming your own opinions constantly and doing what is best for your thinking and your play style. If a read list is how you do that, so be it. Don't let this idiot stand in your way, but, now you have both the information on them and probably the only person on site who vocally opposes them.

[brassherald]

Why I don't like readlists

There's two reasons here. First, they are extremely easy to fake. Take people's names, assemble them into a list that orders them, and provide no real information. I don't find it compelling to just have a list without reasons. Even with reasons, it would not be, to me, immediately clear why Gamma would be scum and ceejay is not as strong of a read.

Second, they just are not very useful to me, personally. My reads are more abstract, in general, ranking them is pretty tough, and I don't even like locking anyone as town ever. That's just how I play the game. Once I put something into a read list like this, I am less likely to question my reads later on. It's just the way I work. I would need the read list in literally every post with updates as things happen to realistically help me with my game, and no one has time for that.

Decent arguments against them, but what about the Pros?

- They can be easy to fake, especially if you just have a list without any reasons, but unless you're talented later day readlists with reasons get trickier. Now scum has to say, "Brass looks scummy because, err.. umm... reasons..." It's one more thing that scum has to lie about and one more place to look for tells.

- It helps keep town informed about your suspicions if you get mislynched or NKed. You don't take it to the grave with you.

I'll accept this as a valid counter argument to mine, and a differing viewpoint, but I will usually let people know any strong reads when I am about to be lynched or if I think I'm going to be NKed.

I also do feel people accept read lists as basically analysis, which I completely disagree with. It may just be a culture of the site thing.

[brassherald]

First game, so I may need a bit of help.

Do you have any experience at all with mafia or werewolf games before this site?

Like in person games, or Throne of Lies or Town of Salem?

[brassherald]

I figured, just thought it was an amusing moment to read "quack" after what you said.

What are your thoughts on the game so far?

[brassherald]

Oh, hey, IC post for advice on how to play, or, more accurately, links to pages that other people have written that other ICs have posted and really should have been in my first IC post.

Newbie Guide
Common Abbreviations

I have failed as an IC by letting these slip to page 5 because I forgot to find them before. I apologize.

[brassherald]

For the record, I am making lots of IC posts early so that I don't have to when I have better reads, and also so that the information is out there if I tragically die.

Also, I'm not loving what seems like hedging from Yellow here. I am not just the IC, I am a suspect to town players, this could be a way to just be off the wagon for now and then jumping on later because then he'll change his mind. I'm not really seeing a read here.

In fact, Yellow, where are your reads right now?

[brassherald]

UNVOTE:

Roo is L-1, I'm not willing to maintain that this early.

[brassherald]

UNVOTE:

Roo is L-1, I'm not willing to maintain that this early.

Was*

[brassherald]

how about a yellow-saint scum team?

It's possible, I guess, but I'm not doing a full team guess yet. There are people I find suspicious and people I find less suspicious. I don't really look at associatives until I know one scum.

I also do think I might have confused Roo with someone else earlier since I did mention something about his reaction to my wagon, but I think he was actually on the other side of the conversation than what I had thought.

[brassherald]

By the way, another difference between this and town of Salem is that in Town of Salem pretty much everyone is a PR. Also, mafiascum has not lost all the information on file about people at this point.

[brassherald]

@l8:
i feel like saint's got no original reasoning, mainly pushing what others have stated..
his first vote on hearth was echoing what i thought..
his second vote was on blank (not sure if it technically counted coz of the formatting, but the intent was there), who was inactive/site flaked..
his third vote on roo was echoing what others were saying..
he's not even engaging tried to engage them..
so his votes also feel opportunistic and just wanting a lynch instead of trying to sort..

For the most part I'm trying to figure out how forum mafia works honestly, as stated before I've only really played Town of Salem which is much more fast paced than this, trying to learn as I go. I'm not trying to lead for any lynching based on the fact that I'm not sure how well any scum reading I might be able to pick up would actually be.

Same here. I'm used to a 24 hour day cycle, which is much faster paced. Posting will help you with that.

Right now I have to agree with xwing.

VOTE: SaintAngelDFE

So tell us, what are your reads? On Day 1 they're always weak, so no worries there.

Right now? My reads are that xwing is likely town, he is jumping around a lot and searching from information.
Brass makes me nervous because he is experienced, I'm not sure I'm ready or even able to make an accurate claim on him yet.
The vote on Roo was more or less trying to see if he could have been trying to talk to other mafia before he responded? But unfortunately the response he gave seemed genuine and not rushed. It was a reach and I should have voiced it.
I don't have too much of a read on Volxen based on similar issues as Brass, however I feel a little more sure that he's town.
Yellow is neutral to me, I'm not picking up on anything going either direction.
DoubtingThomas is talkative and definitely trying to push forward to get information, but he hasn't really pushed for any. I think that's suspicious, but like I said I'm still learning.

My suspects right now are between Volxen and DT. VOTE: volxen

Wait, Volxen you are more sure is town than me, and he's a top suspect?

Your reads don't match your vote, explain ASAP

[brassherald]

@mod can we have it indicated in the votecount how many votes are needed for a lynch?

[brassherald]

did brass keep their rvs vote on me?

I never voted you this entire game.

[brassherald]

I'm going to use my Finger of Suspicion on Saint at this point, if it wasn't obvious, I do not want to put to L-1 without a response this early, but I'm not sure much can be said that fixes that comment I asked about earlier.

[brassherald]

did brass keep their rvs vote on me?

I never voted you this entire game.

Wait, do you think your vote on me is me voting you?

That's not how to read a vote count.

[brassherald]

Right now, I've got some suspicions to Saint because I didn't like that answer but I'm willing to wait until he responds to xwing.

YellowSnow for reasons discussed before, in fact I don't think he posted yesterday at all, and it feels lurky to me compared to the last game I played with him.

Doubting Thomas is asking very general questions rather than pointed ones, that seems like being active lurking. I mean, there is a difference between asking someone what they think of the gamestate and what they think of a specific slot or a specific post. I feel like we are at the point where the questions should be specific rather than general. The questions just seem too easy.

I also find Volxen's silence uneasy. That's an SE slot barely participating.

The other 4 of you get passes for now into what passes for a town block on the basis of not being as suspect.

[brassherald]

Hey, if someone unvoted.

VOTE: Saint

L-2

[brassherald]

"IC_Question": What if scum plays exactly as they would if they were town? Wouldn't it be impossible to catch them?

I wouldn't say impossible. At the end of the game there's always a question of why someone is there. Night Kills generally aim for people who are either super Towny, an obvious PR or sometimes just someone who is too close to solving the game.

That being said, it can be very hard to catch a skilled scum player who has a scum range which closely emulates their town. If someone gets that reputation, people will probably just start lynching that individual before end game to be safe

[brassherald]

I do realize other questions are directed at me but I'm on my phone so I'll handle them later

[brassherald]

Tl;dr If I am not DT but I know DT's meta and history, I would put him at very slight scum lean to generate reaction to help myself understand his alignment a little more while keeping in mind he is actually null. I would be slightly annoyed that he is not playing to his usual self because no matter what that is that is negative for town and hope that he will start playing. As of now, he isn't one of my main scum suspects tbh

Are you talking about yourself in the third person and reading yourself.

This is why I also hate walls, if you can say something in fewer words, say it that way, this post in general is too hard to follow and I have no clue what you are trying to say.

[brassherald]

@BrassHerald Is this level of not posting normal for a newbie game or do we have an unusually high number of mimes playing?

It's a game by game basis, really, but this amount of posting seems to be more like the norm in Newbie games than high post counts.

For reference, the worst's previous game that he modded was only 22 pages long. viewtopic.php?f=11&t=78126

Plotinus ran a game that was just 26 pages long. viewtopic.php?f=11&t=78044

Keeping in mind that these include post game discussions. I'd say this may still be a little slow, but I do think we also have more walls than I generally see in newbie games.

[brassherald]

what reads do you have brass?

I feel like I just answered this one, and it seems this is the only question directed at me right now. Not too much change here.

I like XWing for town, though, independent of there being too many scumspects.

That being said, I don't see a townslip from DT, and I will also remind people town slips can be faked, if it's even there.

Also, slight IC tip in a game related post, you can highlight a portion of a post and hit the Quote button to just quote that portion of the post.

[brassherald]

also brass, what if you want to quote multiple portions from singular post to put comments in between? is there no way but to quote the entire post then edit it? i usually copy-paste the whole "quote" at the start of every statement..

I really have no way to make this easier. I generally just use the [/quote] command at the end and put each in a new quote tag if I want to do that, but, maybe someone who does it more often than I knows, I'll check in discord when I get home if someone knows.

[brassherald]

@brass: well dt did make a good point..why am i town?

You've been open and sharing your thoughts. I don't see the scum motivation in any of your posts. You are not pushing anything in particular right now, but still engaging. Just, in general, all town motivated actions.

Good sharing, good posts, good thoughts, good engagement.

[brassherald]

Tl;dr If I am not DT but I know DT's meta and history, I would put him at very slight scum lean to generate reaction to help myself understand his alignment a little more while keeping in mind he is actually null. I would be slightly annoyed that he is not playing to his usual self because no matter what that is that is negative for town and hope that he will start playing. As of now, he isn't one of my main scum suspects tbh

Are you talking about yourself in the third person and reading yourself.

This is why I also hate walls, if you can say something in fewer words, say it that way, this post in general is too hard to follow and I have no clue what you are trying to say.

I think this post is extremely bad in a scummy way

First problem

He attacks the post which was merely an ANSWER to another player's question

Second problem

I see really no point of making this post at all.
He's asking a very simple question that can be kinda inferred to (that I made this post in a third person way) but also at the same time, the question itself doesn't contribute to ANY scum hunting at all. The answer to whether or not I wrote the post in a third person does not help brass know my alignment at all.

Third problem

Then he goes on to attack my post in a way that's NAI and kinda pointless to point out. That "he hates walls" again which is his opinion, and he is free to express it. However, by expressing this opinion along with a pointless question he asked above, he is literally contributing nothing to the thread but still commenting on a post which was not directed towards him at all.

I think him giving out a negative opinion about the post which is not about the content of the post and how that may be townish/scummish of me is usually how scums tend to try to

shade

other players.

Overall, this post has 3 things I hate so much

- Belittling a post in a very indirect yet meaningless way
- Using that negative factor of the post to attack my slot/give a negative impression to others about me
- While in actuality if you look into this post, he contributed absolutely nothing. He did not enhance a conversation between me and him nor gave any useful analysis wrt my post

Furthermore, I think his complaint about how "he hates long post" and "if you have a succinct way of say something, say it in a simpler way" is just kinda really bad approach to the game

I can understand disliking long posts and I am sorry if you think that it makes the point I am trying to get across to be lost in the middle of it, but I make long posts because I tend to get on a tangent and write about all the thoughts I have in the process. To partly show a transparent thought process I have. This way, I can show others how/why I felt/thought abotu something in a certain way and discuss about it with them. Which will help me understand the other person's alignment better

You can dislike long posts and hate my post for not getting straight to the point, but I feel pretty strongly about this.

At the same time, I now think it's

REALLY SCUMMY

for you to just attack my post based on the fact that it's a long post and I didn't get my point across with it. rather than talking/expressing about how that makes me townie/scummy nor actually trying to ask me questions about the confusion you have with the post.

Because if you are town, you should be curious about the confusion you have. You express that you did not understand my post completely, but really don't ask a legit question that will help your clarification. Rather, you focus on how that makes my posting bad. Again, I think that comes from a scummy agenda that you want to give others the impression that I am posting badly.

I believe you are scum here, sir.

VOTE: Brass

Oh my god, can you get an editor or something? Because these posts are so long and say basically nothing.

I asked you directly what you were doing in your previous wall post, it was the first sentence of my post. And you don't think it's a "legit question".

Serious advice, don't fall in love with your own voice so much that you can't learn to stop talking and make the point you are trying to make.

[brassherald]

I admittedly have a short attention span.

General rule of thumb, though, is if your post does not fit on one traditional sized computer screen, it's too long, even for people who have normal attention spans.

[brassherald]

259

You know I'm never going to read that, right?

the thought "i am so sorry brass" literally crossed my mind while i was writing it.

i just felt i hadn't really shared my thought process enough to be questioning people who are pushing other scumreads than mine :{

FWIW, same game, player who's familiar with me (who happens to be the mod) acknowledges he knew I wasn't going to read his wall.

[brassherald]

Just a note while I'm thinking of it, one of the best things to do to hunt people you may be wary of, perhaps people who are particularly good at scum as was the discussion before, is to actually look into their past games, known as metas on site.

Now, using their meta, you can learn what they do as town and what is in what's called their "scum range". Basically, scum has the task of faking their game, and even the best scum players will not be able to perfectly emulate a town game, as far as I know, maybe someone can.

That being said, it's a good tool to go back and read previous games, and sometimes you'll see me ask others for their previous scum games to really evaluate.

[brassherald]

At an interview right now, sorry I missed those questions I will get them today, promise

[brassherald]

"IC_Question": What if scum plays exactly as they would if they were town? Wouldn't it be impossible to catch them?

@brass, Do you have anything to say/any reads? You haven't been generating a lot of in-game content so far, if any.

I play things close to the chest early for sure. That being said, I random voted Roo early because it was early to type, but I haven't liked his i

nteractions

too much and so I haven't moved my vote.

The super defensive response to someone asking about an L-2 wagon on me makes me uneasy.

What kind of interactions didn't you like, it implies that there is more than one interaction, although he only posted 3 posts at that time.

I also do think I might have confused Roo with someone else earlier since I did mention something about his reaction to my wagon, but I think he was actually on the other side of the conversation than what I had thought.

When did you do that? Can you elaborate more?

Okay, answered first part already.

Second part was exactly what I said, the interactions of someone who was super defensive about an L-2 wagon, but tying in the third one, I think it may have not been Roo who was that super defensive person in the first place, so third answer is when I made the post that the second question was directed at.

I could probably go back and check who was actually that defensive about L-2, but it was early and spit in the ocean compared to the rest of the game so far. Those are not enough to factor into my reads anymore, even. So much more has happened, and I'm happy with my vote on Saint.

I still do not like how Saint is hedging his bets by claiming he can't get a read on me, but also heavily implying he's scum reading me. I feel like his reads on my slot are fully setting up that he's going to use these to be opportunistic and join a wagon if a real one pops up.

He's my top suspect still, did not like his answer to why he voted incorrectly before, and I'm not liking this "newer player who's so intimidated" act

[brassherald]

I guess now is a good time to talk a bit about V/LA and weekends around here.

As you may have noticed, XWing has VLA on all weekends, that means limited access, so generally, the prod timer is given 1.5x length for them. Being VLA does not excuse you from posting completely, and it is frowned upon to abuse VLA to avoid playing the game, it is simply an alternative to dropping from the game when you can't constantly check in.

There is also a setting to display you are VLA for a duration of time in your User Control Panel, conveniently located at the top of the page. I encourage you to use it if and when you go V/LA

While I'm on it,

@mod I'll be VLA from February 4-9

Now, weekends themselves are generaly low activity anyway, people are probably off doing other things. It just happens, that's part of the culture of mafiascum. Please don't let the low weekend activity scare you away from the site.

[brassherald]

@Brass What's the rules on posting/quoting/linking material from previous games for meta?

As long as the game is completed, it's fair game.

[brassherald]

I still do not like how Saint is hedging his bets by claiming he can't get a read on me, but also heavily implying he's scum reading me. I feel like his reads on my slot are fully setting up that he's going to use these to be opportunistic and join a wagon if a real one pops up.

He's my top suspect still, did not like his answer to why he voted incorrectly before, and I'm not liking this "newer player who's so intimidated" act

@Brass, frankly I'm much more concerned with the way Yellowsnow has treated your slot vs how Saint has treated your slot. Yes, Saint has been fairly non-committal on how he is reading your slot, and both Saint and Yellowsnow have brought up the fact that you are the IC. But this is Saint's very first game on site, so I could see why newb!town Saint would be intimidated to push you, even if he has gotten scum pings from you (which I'm not sure that he has). I can also see Saint being genuinely null on your slot. Yellowsnow, on the other hand, has been on this site for almost 2 months now and has multiple completed games under his belt, so it's less believable that town!Yellowsnow would put so much stock into you being IC, to the point where he thinks you should be immune to being lynched at least on day one anyways. If anything, this kind of "special treatment" towards the IC slot is something I might expect from someone in their first game. Not from someone who has multiple completed games under their belt, especially when Yellowsnow has

NOT

treated the IC slot like this in any of his previous towngames.

Are you concerned at all that Yellowsnow may be trying to hard pocket/buddy you?

I got in late last night and read the case and find it compelling.

VOTE: YellowSnow

[brassherald]

That's L-1.

Now, for an IC post, quickly, a mislynch day 1 is actually better than a no lynch. There's math out there and I'll dig it up when I have a chance later, but trust me for now. This is just a fact I drop every day 1 of a newbie game.

[brassherald]

(about saint)
Can you quote the posts that imply that?

You did right above it. I feel that's a pretty heavy implication of suspicion

[brassherald]

2 things, first, I cannot find the thread that explained why a misynchh is better than a no lynch. It has to do with when you are in MYLO and LYLO and keeping us at odd numbers and percentage chance for wins with purely random votes for town.

Second, I don't see anything too bad with 295. Intent to hammer is fine at any point in my opinion, if you are confident in your read. And it's not a quickhammer which would be anti town. What are you seeing wrong with it? Maybe a little LAMIST, but I really have to overthink it to find that

[brassherald]

Because I don't defend myself against awful wagons.

This seems off compared to our last game. Didn't you ask me to defend myself against a bad wagon that hadn't even existed?

[brassherald]

Seeking a replacement for DoubtingThomas.

@mod do we get an extension of time to be 48 hours from the replacement in this case, or is that not standard?

[brassherald]

I would be willing to switch to saint for the purposes of avoiding a town lynch(me) but I really think l8 is scum.

So, you'd do a self-preservation lynch?

[brassherald]

At this point, Yellow, if you plan to make any claim, I'd suggest you do it now. I feel like intent has been there for over a day. No one hammer unless he does this, refuses, or it's very very close to deadline, please.

[brassherald]

Wait, I thought EOD was tomorrow. Yeah, hammer would be acceptable at this time

[brassherald]

Yeah, I just lost track of what day it was and didn't read the timer.

[brassherald]

The only other one I would lynch today is Saint right now, tbh. DT slot is too far from lynch to be realistic with 10 hours left.

I'm not sure that Scum!YellowSnow claims a VT, to be honest, because he knows the optimal fake claim on the basis of me saying it in our last game.

But, we are also in the 11th hour, so my lynch pool is {YellowSnow,Saint} and I think if either of them are town, the last is BlurryX(I'm pretty sure he is the DT replacement?)

[brassherald]

The only other one I would lynch today is Saint right now, tbh. DT slot is too far from lynch to be realistic with 10 hours left.

I'm not sure that Scum!YellowSnow claims a VT, to be honest, because he knows the optimal fake claim on the basis of me saying it in our last game.

But, we are also in the 11th hour, so my lynch pool is {YellowSnow,Saint} and I think if either of them are town, the last is BlurryX(I'm pretty sure he is the DT replacement?)

This sums up exactly where I am at right now too. Saint now has 3 votes. Brass, if you wanted to be vote 4, is there a fifth vote out there?

If there is a 4th vote soon-ish, just consider I am intent to hammering.

[brassherald]

I do not want to switch wagons right now because I cannot assure that I will be around to follow through with switching again tonight. I will only participate in another wagon if it is absolutely needed.

[brassherald]

im still on saint..and i'd rather lynch saint..
im still fine to lynch yellow as we're on our last few hours though..

I'd say I still prefer yellow, even though my read has wavered on yellow a bit, just because if Saint is a PR, I don't know there's a real chance to get a claim before hammer.

[brassherald]

So you're going to let Saint's lack of activity cause you to lynch a town player?

What if Saint is a town PR? I've already explained that a lynch is better than a no lynch. You've already claimed VT.

I'm not townreading you for just the claim itself, but if I'm wrong on both my reads, which has happened before, I'd rather lynch the VT claim than a no claim. If we were 24 hours from deadline, maybe I play this differently, but we just aren't. I need to take the amount of time we have into account on a decision like this.

[brassherald]

In this case I disagree on a lynch being better than a no lynch. I think we are narrowing down who the scum are and can afford one no lynch and I can be a valuable player.

Mathematically, that is incorrect.

I found the thread finally that explains the math.

Let's take your classic newbie setup, as an example.
7 town
2 scum

Let's say that the town decide to NL D1, but lynch every day from then, and scum also kills every night.
Day 2: 6 town, 2 scum. (25% chance of hitting scum)
Day 3: 4 town, 2 scum. (33% chance of hitting scum)

Now let's say town lynch D1:
D2: 5 town, 2 scum. (28.5% chance of hitting scum)
Day 3: 3 town, 2 scum. (40% chance of hitting scum)

As you can see, the town have a greater chance of hitting scum if they lynch anyone D1. There's some rule about that, it's in the wiki somewhere.
This is just from a statistical PoV, but lynching D1 is almost always better.

Also, mod confirmed information always has great value.

So, I respectfully will say that, as a VT, your lynch is not really a big hit to town at this point, if you are town. And I mean this as not insult at all, I'm sure if you are town, you could provide some value, but the pure pragmatic view is that a lynch is better than a no lynch, and a VT lynch is better than a possible PR lynch.

Of course, scum lynch is the best case scenario.

[brassherald]

@brass
makes sense..
he's still at L-1?

Yeah, no one has voted off the train since last vote count.

[brassherald]

So, my NKA says, killing on the wagon means that scum was likely off the wagon yesterday... Unless somehow Hearthstone let slip that he was Dr. I don't see any crumbing in his ISO now that I look for it, but my rule of thumb right now is that I should likely reevaluate my reads unless someone finds something.

If anyone sees anything that hints at hearth being Doctor in his ISO let me know.

[brassherald]

So, I didn't bother checking when I came back into town yesterday because I quickly discovered that I didn't have usable internet in Texas. I didn't think someone would have not replaced me.

[brassherald]

So, IC notes from what I was here for are in the IC thread, feel free to read them. I will have to go through day 2 and 3 and see if there's anything, but really, I think this game went well for town.

[brassherald]

The only other one I would lynch today is Saint right now, tbh. DT slot is too far from lynch to be realistic with 10 hours left.

I'm not sure that Scum!YellowSnow claims a VT, to be honest, because he knows the optimal fake claim on the basis of me saying it in our last game.

But, we are also in the 11th hour, so my lynch pool is {YellowSnow,Saint} and I think if either of them are town, the last is BlurryX(I'm pretty sure he is the DT replacement?)

Look, also, I'm just going to brag about my Day 1 solve.

[brassherald]

yeah I'm not super proud of my call there. good to see ya back.

I mean, maybe I could have hooked into my cell phone network and used data to tell you, but that is so much more effort than anyone probably ever expects of me.

[brassherald]

Comments coming tomorrow, now, woke up super sick today.