Newbie 1937 | Maths | Over

[LuckyOtter]

VOTE: wolfcub well that was easy

(easy_button.gif)

[LuckyOtter]

We are the only players (other than Clarity) who have posted more than once.

Interesting. Wondering why you lied/misrepped?

This is a stretch. Your posts page one weren't substantive and could easily have been glossed over. This looks more like shading than reaction testing (as you imply in 51

[LuckyOtter]

Describing a player as

suspicious

in Mafia can effectively be the same as the Mafia jargon term

scummy

. I wanted to retract my previous word choice that was too strong in order to state that I do not hold it as alignment-indicative. The word

suspicious

in this context and the third characteristic are almost antonyms, so a new point means that the third point is not redundant.

So why bother pointing out unusual behavior if you don't see it as AI? Again, looks more like shading than solving, and this backtracking is making it look like you're just trying to stay busy rather than scumhunt.

[LuckyOtter]

@Robbnva,

Sorry, I totally forgot about your three posts. Somehow my mind condensed them down into one. Certainly wasn't a lie. What do you think I would have gotten from lying about that?

Nothing. I was just curious where your mind was at.

Actually I want to circle back to this. What do you make of his response, and is it different from what you were expecting?

[LuckyOtter]

VOTE: pema22
I can get on board with this.

[LuckyOtter]

No he’s not right. It wasn’t a stretch. You DID lie/misrep my post count. Intentionally or not, who cares. It happened.

Whether it was intentional or not matters a great deal. And it seems obviously unintentional. In which case he wasn't actually lying or misreading. In which case your "interesting" post is pretty shady.

[LuckyOtter]

For now I'll attribute Imperator's post count mistake to stupidity because of the faultiness of memory and the higher likeliness of an act of stupidity than one of malice; nevertheless, I believe that Robbnva's reaction suggests town because scum would avoid attracting attention by quibbling over a trivial mistake.

Scum have to appear to appear to be scumhunting. Lying low quickly draws suspicion, so this isn't a good reason to town read someone.

Plus, he's already drawn attention to himself, so if scum, he's got to try to shift focus on someone else as quickly as possible and make himself look like the victim of a scum attack

[LuckyOtter]

For now I'll attribute Imperator's post count mistake to stupidity because of the faultiness of memory and the higher likeliness of an act of stupidity than one of malice; nevertheless, I believe that Robbnva's reaction suggests town because scum would avoid attracting attention by quibbling over a trivial mistake.

Scum have to appear to appear to be scumhunting. Lying low quickly draws suspicion, so this isn't a good reason to town read someone.

Plus, he's already drawn attention to himself, so if scum, he's got to try to shift focus on someone else as quickly as possible and make himself look like the victim of a scum attack

Jocus actually made a good point. I as scum have no reason go question imposter like I did.

Your false accusation actually looks like a scum attack becaus it is a blatant misrep, and you misrep me again at the end of the post.

I’m like 90% sure you are scum now

You most certainly would have reason to question Imposter. It makes you look like you're scumhunting when you're really not accomplishing anything. Your post 51 made that clear.

You're throwing around the misrep argument too casually for town if you ask me.

Town is never 90%sure about anyone's alignment on p.4.

[LuckyOtter]

In other news, @Robb, jocus, imperator, what do you all make of pema's entrance?

[LuckyOtter]

First post from Robb that pings towny to me (88)

Re: 89, I mean barring an obvious scumslip town have no reason to be so sure of scum so early. Yeah one might have an early suspicion and push it with questions or even a wagon to see how it unfolds but all you've been doing with me is actively trying to discredit me. It doesn't read like legit scumhunting to me.

[LuckyOtter]

It doesn't read like legit scumhunting to me.

When you start doing some let me know.

I at least have a question pending answers so your saying I'm not doing any scumhunting is a misrep :p

And I never actually said why I'm on the pema wagon. Yet you decided to put a spin on it rather than ask me about it. That to me is telling.

Also I'm an otter so I wouldn't dare throw my stones away.

[LuckyOtter]

Disengaging until I get answers to my question and wolf joins or is replaced

[LuckyOtter]

In other news, @Robb, jocus, imperator, what do you all make of pema's entrance?

Doesn’t surprise me that you’re asking that. Especially if you actually are scum.

Uhm.

[LuckyOtter]

No I don’t. None of this discussion these last two/three pages have been useful at all. All I see is people advocating lazy play and others advocating against it.

I see no genuine scum hunting and the only one who really was doing any has stopped and is agitated.

This game HAS stalled. We’re waiting for pema to post and arguing because nobody wants to actually scum hunt. We’ve wasted 3 days. We only get like 10.

I just think it could be spent in a way to actually help town win and teach new players how to play.

I assume both scum are on pena because imo only scum would be ok with the current game state.

Maybe scum is you/otter afterall

If the game is stalled it's because we have two inactive players. If we assume town!pena, I could see one scum being happy keeping a vote there but both would be a bad play.

Also, saying that the vote on pema hasn't accomplished anything, well that's your opinion. It's certainly gotten a reaction out of you, for one, and a downplay of pema's entrance.

[LuckyOtter]

That is a shame. I am glad you aren't scum reading me for any of this though. It would be fascinating to see how LuckyOtter flips.

And I agreed with him because I thought it was a little unfair of you to use the word "lie," I have however changed my mind reading your last couple posts. I might even be convinced to vote for him.

Also, what does "wk" stand for?

VOTE: LuckyOtter

I'll park my vote on him for now. Still waiting to see what comes of all this.

@Lucky, while my mistake was unintentional it's still a misread. It also seems that the "interesting" post is townie because of reasons outlined by Jocus.

I think you should explain this progression a little more.

[LuckyOtter]

Bye girls!

confirmed town
never lynch

If we’re going to start nitpicking entrances.

This is a slight scumtell. Only one way he can know clarity is town.

I wrote it off as non ai but if we’re going to just throw logic and common sense out of the window let’s go.

scum!TTTT doesn’t say this about his scumpartner here. You’re comparing a genuine entrance post to a joke response to a joke entrance.

Agreeing with this, and this response:

I never said he said that about his scum partner though.

You’re confirmed town cause tttt is scum.

I can’t tell if that was a joke post. There was no indication it was.

logic and common sense have been tossed out the window for this game already so I just have to take things at face value

is inadequate. How would it not be a joke post? Again I think you're downplaying the validity of looking at pema's entrance.

[LuckyOtter]

Oh get off your high horse already

[LuckyOtter]

And for those who believe in intentional lurking. Lucky logged on today and hasn’t contributed either.

7 minutes later. Not a coincidence.

He’s scum ladies and gentlemen.

You know what, it is a fucking coincidence. It's 5pm here. I've just gotten home. I have work, and you know what, other games that are in various other states that I might be checking on. I might have been checking on the state of the two inactives of this game as well. And seeing that they're unresolved, I decide to get back in and try to move along. But you decide the only answer here is that I'm active lurking because you're so confbiased/deadset on painting me as scum that literally anything I do at this point you're going to spin.

Now it's pretty clear you're the one interested in doing misreps, bud.

VOTE: robbnva

[LuckyOtter]

I'm voting for Otter.

And about pema. I definitely think that his post is a hard NAI. I am new to this site, but have played forum mafia once before, I remember feeling under a large amount of pressure to "do well" and get things right. I'm sure pema is feeling similarly.

Nobody is questioning the emotion, what is being questioned is the manner of posting. I feel more likely to see new town take the Jocus approach and try to get into the game, and new scum to try to do just enough to get by and appear to be in the game without doing anything. And especially after picking up a couple votes, I'd expect town to work hard to rectify the situation rather than just shut down.

[LuckyOtter]

Pema's only post:

Pema's online activity:


Intentional lurking (and not just lack of activity)???

I’ve seen town do that

Hell I do that myself as town.

I mean sure he very well could be scum but we learn nothing by lynching him. Mafia is supposed to be about scum hunting not policy lynching off some stupid made up tell that somebody decided to manufacture and inactivity.

Construing the pema wagon as a policy lynch is blatantly misrepresenting it. You know very well early wagons have a few different uses: 1) get reactions from the person being wagoned, 2) get reactions from those not on the wagon, and 3) see how earlier wagoners react to a wagon that reaches l-2 or l-1

[LuckyOtter]

@Rob, would you lynch someone else if the Otter wagon never gets off the ground?

Did you get a satisfactory answer to this question? What insight did you gain from it?

[LuckyOtter]

@TTTT,

I don't think Rob is against voting for pema in general. I may be wrong on this, but I think the idea he is trying to get across is that he would rather vote for a player he thinks is scum then a player that has only posted once.

Why do you like Jocus so much? Do you think he is not reading Rob's posts? Have you read Rob's posts?

@zeebu and clarity,

What are your thoughts on Jocus and Rob's back-and-forth? TTTT's involvement? My involvement?

these posts look like what newbie scum does to try and look game-solvey

Can you explain what makes them look fake vs. genuine?

[LuckyOtter]

@TTTT,

I don't think Rob is against voting for pema in general. I may be wrong on this, but I think the idea he is trying to get across is that he would rather vote for a player he thinks is scum then a player that has only posted once.

Why do you like Jocus so much? Do you think he is not reading Rob's posts? Have you read Rob's posts?

@zeebu and clarity,

What are your thoughts on Jocus and Rob's back-and-forth? TTTT's involvement? My involvement?

these posts look like what newbie scum does to try and look game-solvey

Can you explain what makes them look fake vs. genuine?

the questions don't look like someone who is trying to solve a puzzle
they aren't looking to determine motives or thought process
which is fine we all ask questions like that sometimes to get a bearing on the game
but it's like all of them put together strikes me as not how town usually does business
sorry that prob doesn't really answer the question
but I wanted to try and say more than "my gut"

I think so, and generally inclined to agree. Especially considering:

@Rob, would you lynch someone else if the Otter wagon never gets off the ground?

Did you get a satisfactory answer to this question? What insight did you gain from it?

I got an answer. I realized after Robb answered that it wasn't really a very revealing question.

I didn't see a real purpose for Imp asking Robb the question, and given Imp's response it doesn't seem like he did. Looks like busywork.

[LuckyOtter]

I have this weird gut feeling that Eggs is scum from the "too towny to be town analytical" style....

Funny you say this, cause I've been getting the same vibe from your posts. Like I'm still feeling icky about our p2 interaction where you seemed to be torn between debating semantics and saying...

something

about my meta, which I'm still unable to discern between all the big words. 134 was super showy in a way that feels almost fake

I can see that argument in a couple posts but not in his overall pattern. You'd have to lay it out and make more of a convincing case that he's more systematically being showy and fake in order for me to buy this.

[LuckyOtter]

Now that everyone's here:

{TTTT, Eggs, Zeebu}
{Jocus, CC}
{pema}
{Imperator, Robbnva}

[LuckyOtter]

you already did
VOTE: pema

Ok so my name is getting thrown around quite a lot, but I wanted to explain myself a little... my greeting was genuine as a new player, and I didn't overly think about what I said (regretting that now).. just wanted to give a pretty standard 'hello' to everyone and introduce myself as a newbie. From there it seems like everyone has jumped on the bandwagon of wanting to vote me out so soon. I am a bit uncertain why saying I am new to the game is a clear sign to want me out- I just wanted to ask all of those people why they considered my entrance so 'bad' or indicative to being mafia scum?

Also I'm sorry for not being as active, but I have been busy these past few days and wanted to learn from last post- taking some time to try and accurately explain myself

OK but do you have absolutely no thoughts on the game that you can post quick?

[LuckyOtter]

@zeebu,

Here's the thing. I am convinced that either Robb or Lucky is scum. If we lynch Lucky and he flips town I will be happy to lynch Robb. But I am pretty convinced that Lucky is scum.

Why though? In your own words (not just "I like what robb said," which is not a great argument if you think there's an almost equal chance robb is scum)

[LuckyOtter]

I know there are things I missed but I'll likely be gone the rest of the evening. Pema needs to lay down some reads.

[LuckyOtter]

Now that everyone's here:

{TTTT, Eggs, Zeebu}
{Jocus, CC}
{pema}
{Imperator, Robbnva}

Do you’ve scumread all 3 people up for lynch?

You’re amazing :golf clap:

The 3 people up for lynch are scummy, so yeah. Like, wtf even is this dig?

[LuckyOtter]

Just enough time for a quick catchup.

All you silent shits. Speak up!!!

Scum Robb is running away with this game, stop letting him. You guys can lynch me, but that just puts us one day closer to losing. I obviously said a couple of stupid things, but look at the motivation behind peoples posts more than the content. If you don't know the motivation you can't know the content.

Robb has managed to scum read many people without being pressured(except by me) he will come on and tear my posts to ribbons by picking snippets of sentences and replying only to those snippets. I assume his excuse for this will be something like, "he's scum so i don wanna talk to him, durrr."

WHY are you letting him get away with this crap?

I really dislike this post. Any post that contains something like "y'all can lynch me but it'll make us lose" is immediately suspicious to me.

Feeling safe to eliminate a possible imp/rob team, and feeling more and more like waiting to D2 to sort them.

[LuckyOtter]

There's been enough time for both CC and pema to contribute more than they have, or at the very least place a vote. Pema's hesitation is looking slightly more convincing/justified.

VOTE: ClearlyClarity

[LuckyOtter]

Feeling safe to eliminate a possible imp/rob team, and feeling more and more like waiting to D2 to sort them.

Hmm

Have something you want to say here?

[LuckyOtter]

What's your current take on pema?

[LuckyOtter]

There's been enough time for both CC and pema to contribute more than they have, or at the very least place a vote. Pema's hesitation is looking slightly more convincing/justified.

VOTE: ClearlyClarity

Outside of arguing with me, I’d say your contribution to this game is about the same as theirs. When you do ask questions they are like t-ball type questions.

I try to re-evaluate my read on you but I honestly can’t connect the dots.

I don't think you honestly believe this, and you're making me think you're scum again.

Let me try to be generous and believe for a moment that you honestly believe I'm playing an active lurking game. I don't think in that mindset you can look at my activity and equate it with theirs. At the very least I'm putting votes out and trying to be transparent about my reads. CC and pema are playing a tight tentative game. You can't be ignoring that.

"t-ball type questions..." cmon dude. This type of discrediting attack is getting old. Back that up.

[LuckyOtter]

Feeling safe to eliminate a possible imp/rob team, and feeling more and more like waiting to D2 to sort them.

why wait until D2?

Main reason is I have very conflicting feelings on the two and I think it nearly impossible they're both scum. One of them? Pretty good chance. Very good chance one of them is trying to take heat off of one of pema/CC and I'm going back and forth on which scenario is most likely.

A pema/CC pairing doesn't strike me as very likely but not impossible. So a slightly better chance of hitting scum within that pairing I think. I was thinking we get a flip and sorting the two will be easier tomorrow.

That said, if we're going to be hung up on imp vs. robb (or even robb vs. me) maybe getting a flip there is more useful.

[LuckyOtter]

See here's where I'm getting hung up. On the one hand, lots of Robb's posts don't feel genuine to me. They look reachy (my original comments), accusatory and discrediting (calling anything he doesn't like "lies"), and like he's making a hard push to keep attention in one particular direction (me until it became clear I wasn't likely going to be the lynch, then imp). It just looks to me like he has an agenda.

And then Imp posts stuff like this:

Anyone know Robb's scum meta? Is he as confrontational as scum?

Someone answer this pretty please.

This is ALL you have to say?

Which just reads like a super fake reaction. Eggs already called out CC's post in the previous post. Not sure what this post intends to accomplish from a pro-town perspective.

[LuckyOtter]

why bother pointing out unusual behaviour?

are you kidding me?

that is one of the ways you scum hunt. That is how you try and determine alignment. Point out suspicious things and see how others see it, see how the person being accused reacts.

he is essentially trying to shade JA for scum hunting.

Oh lookie a misrep. The full quote, "why bother pointing out unusual behavior

if you don't see it as AI?

My point was that it didn't look like scumhunting at all

[LuckyOtter]

I guess implied in my question is this: what do you think of CC?

Answer this question Robb

[LuckyOtter]

why bother pointing out unusual behaviour?

are you kidding me?

that is one of the ways you scum hunt. That is how you try and determine alignment. Point out suspicious things and see how others see it, see how the person being accused reacts.

he is essentially trying to shade JA for scum hunting.

Oh lookie a misrep. The full quote, "why bother pointing out unusual behavior

if you don't see it as AI?

My point was that it didn't look like scumhunting at all

The full quote was already provided right before I made that post dumbass.

You point out suspicious activity regardless of its AI or not because that’s how you scum hunt. Just cause something isn’t AI doesn’t mean it couldn’t come from scum. If something is suspicious, you point it out.

Example. Why did people mention pema’s greeting? Why did people want to lynch him for it, you included, if it’s not AI?

Because it

did

look scummy (You don't have to agree on that for me to believe it to be true)

Again I think you're downplaying the validity of looking at pema's entrance.

Here you are advocating looking at something not AI.

So tell me again why is JA suspicious for his actions, but you and TTTT are ok to do the same?

Because there was an obvious value to scrutinizing the entrance

and

placing a vote behind it. Jocus didn't put a vote there, nor did he seem to have a clear intention for pointing out the suspicion. It just looked to me like busywork.

[LuckyOtter]

I guess implied in my question is this: what do you think of CC?

Answer this question Robb

Read my fucking posts scum boy. Ive given my thoughts on CC already

People who ask me reads without first checking if I’ve given them can stop being lazy.


I already said CC I said in my lynch pool.

I’m not compromising going with a 3/4th when I can vote my 1.

You put CC in your scumpool on p 14, said you'd vote for her to put pressure on her, and nothing after that. But she has posted more, so it is not unreasonable to ask this question for your updated view on CC

[LuckyOtter]

You know what, I can almost buy CC's claim that she's been lying low for lack of interest in this particular game. I've lost interest in it in trying to engage with Robb. Regardless of alignment, Robb, I want you to know you are unpleasant to play with and make this game unfun. You're starting to attack people and not their play ("I'd insult you but it's not worth it," "dumbass"). If I weren't directly involved in a 1v1 with you I probably wouldn't want to read the game either. Mafia gets heated I know but you're taking it to an unnecessarily personal place and you need to check your anger.

For the record, I don't want you to keep fighting... you have all the power to stop that from happening, you know, by like, questioning your own scumreads and approach to the game. You've claimed with a fair amount of confidence at various points that me, TTTT, and imp are all scum so, you're wrong somewhere, and rather than say "well one is just lying town so good riddance" (paraphrasing various things you've said (zomg paraphrasing is lying))), maybe you should take a step back and try to figure out where you've made a misinterpretation. Maybe...

not everything that doesn't line up with

your perception

of reality is a lie

. Since lying seems to be your main argument against both me and imp, maybe you should rethink that. Nobody's buying your story about lying anyway so move on already and find a more convincing argument.

I'm left thinking the pairing is likely either Imp/pema or Robb/CC. I was starting to lean the former until Robb switched his vote back to me after CC joined the imp wagon. He doesn't want to say any more about CC and got defensive about it when asked by both TTTT and myself.

So here we go. Final vote. VOTE: Robbnva

[LuckyOtter]

If you're town, Robb, you'd do well to give your last updated thoughts on CC

[LuckyOtter]

in the future plz never join a game I'm in

[LuckyOtter]

I literally JUST pointed out that your posts say fucking nothing substantive about CC, and nothing at all since her recent posts

[LuckyOtter]

Well you could have just said as much instead of totally dodge the fucking question!

[LuckyOtter]

And otter if you somehow aren’t scum. Quit mafia or quit falsely accusing/lying/being a hypocrite

Maybe you reread your sig. Bye.

[LuckyOtter]

Hey newbs I promise not all games are like this.

[LuckyOtter]

Let's hypo the investigative roles.

If I'm Cop, pema22 is town.
If I'm Neapolitan, Eggs is a Vanilla Townie.
If I'm Tracker, zeebu went nowhere.

Can you explain why you think that would be useful right now? Especially in this format?

[LuckyOtter]

I'm on the same page. Scum are lurking and letting the tvt kill us. Pema, CC, you.

Do you mean one scum or do you see a possibility of a scumteam in this group?

[LuckyOtter]

Had him at town earlier, he's trending downwards lately.

Why?

[LuckyOtter]

Re: setup spec... eh... I think

early

setup spec is generally seen as a scumtell but after the first flip it happens sometimes, but usually in more complicated games with more unknowns so that the town can try to figure out how best to use (or NOT) their roles.

Rolefishing is of course very scummy but to the point that most scum, even newbies I would think, know not to do it, or if they're going to try, they know to be sneaky about it. Asking for a hypoclaim and just going for it without everyone's agreement is not exactly sneaky.

I think I was in a game once with a hypoclaim (@Imp it means everyone says who they would target

if

they had those roles, with the actual PRs of course giving their real claims, that way if the PR gets NK'd we have a back record of their targets without necessarily having to out them) and I don't remember why we did it (if we ever even did) or why it was suggested in that instance. When I am less tired I can look into that, but my instinct is that it doesn't help town right now because it can go wrong for a couple reasons, one of which was just illustrated.

[LuckyOtter]

VOTE: LuckyOtter

Since Robb flipped town it seems we should honor his reads at least temporarily. I will be putting my vote here.

He scum read you too Imp! What are you gonna do about that?

I showed many times how all of my "lies" were either mistakes or things I actually believed. Has Otter responded this way to Robb's accusations? I'm going to go back and look.

I just went back and did an iso of Robb vs Lucky. It's a pile of useless horseshit. I have no reason to scum read Lucky for what he said.

So is there a reason you're still voting me?

[LuckyOtter]

as for what the kill for TTTT means- honestly I don't think it gives us too much information as to who the scum is so not sure where to go from here

Was this thought prompted by something? If so I'm not seeing it.

[LuckyOtter]

I might struggle to get content in today but my gut is teeling me to VOTE: pema. I think her iso is pretty consistently devoid of useful content, in a non-newbtown way. If I can sift thru some things today to make sure this checks out I will but it might have to wait for tomorrow.

@zeebs CC was talking about tttt being town leader.

[LuckyOtter]

Just a little time right now to start doing some VCA. I don't have time right now to shade TTTT and rob as green but I can get to it later if anyone wants. I deleted a couple VCs that were unchanged from the previous one.

Advice for newbies: These are just the official vote counts. Remember that voting movement happens between them, so as we dig into these we need to look at the movement between official VCs as well. Especially toward the end of day. I think there's a lot of interesting movement there that I want to dig into soon.

Spoiler:

25
wolfcub (1): LuckyOtter
ClearlyClarity (1): Robbnva
TTTT (1): Imperator
zeebu (1): Jocus Aevorum

Not Voting (5): wolfcub, ClearlyClarity, pema22, TTTT, zeebu

50
wolfcub (1): LuckyOtter
ClearlyClarity (1): Robbnva
pema22 (1): TTTT
TTTT (1): Imperator
zeebu (1): Jocus Aevorum

Not Voting (4): wolfcub, pema22, ClearlyClarity, zeebu

104
pema22 (3): TTTT, LuckyOtter, zeebu
LuckyOtter (2): Robbnva, Imperator
zeebu (1): Jocus Aevorum

Not Voting (3): wolfcub, pema22, ClearlyClarity

126
pema22 (3): TTTT, LuckyOtter, zeebu
LuckyOtter (2): Robbnva, Imperator
zeebu (1): Jocus Aevorum

Not Voting (3): wolfcub, pema22, ClearlyClarity

152
pema22 (3): TTTT, LuckyOtter, zeebu
LuckyOtter (2): Robbnva, Imperator

Not Voting (4): Jocus Aevorum, wolfcub, pema22, ClearlyClarity

207
LuckyOtter (2): Robbnva, Imperator
pema22 (2): TTTT, zeebu
Robbnva (1): LuckyOtter

Not Voting (4): Jocus Aevorum, wolfcub, pema22, ClearlyClarity

226
LuckyOtter (2): Robbnva, Imperator
Imperator (1): TTTT
Robbnva (1): LuckyOtter
pema22 (1): zeebu

Not Voting (4): Jocus Aevorum, wolfcub, pema22, ClearlyClarity

266
LuckyOtter (2): Robbnva, Imperator
Imperator (1): TTTT
Robbnva (1): LuckyOtter
pema22 (1): zeebu

Not Voting (4): Jocus Aevorum, Eggs, ClearlyClarity, pema22

278
Imperator (2): TTTT, Eggs
LuckyOtter (2): Robbnva, Imperator
Robbnva (1): LuckyOtter
pema22 (1): zeebu

Not Voting (3): Jocus Aevorum, ClearlyClarity, pema22

318
Imperator (2): TTTT, Eggs
LuckyOtter (2): Robbnva, Imperator
Robbnva (1): LuckyOtter
pema22 (1): zeebu

Not Voting (3): Jocus Aevorum, ClearlyClarity, pema22

325
Imperator (2): TTTT, Eggs
LuckyOtter (2): Robbnva, Imperator
Robbnva (1): LuckyOtter
pema22 (1): zeebu

Not Voting (3): Jocus Aevorum, ClearlyClarity, pema22

350
Imperator (2): TTTT, Eggs
LuckyOtter (2): Robbnva, Imperator
Robbnva (1): LuckyOtter
pema22 (1): zeebu

Not Voting (3): Jocus Aevorum, ClearlyClarity, pema22

376
Imperator (2): TTTT, Eggs
LuckyOtter (2): Robbnva, Imperator
Robbnva (1): LuckyOtter
pema22 (1): zeebu

Not Voting (3): Jocus Aevorum, ClearlyClarity, pema22

415
Imperator (3): TTTT, Eggs, Robbnva
Robbnva (2): LuckyOtter, Imperator
pema22 (1): zeebu

Not Voting (3): Jocus Aevorum, ClearlyClarity, pema22

425
Imperator (4): TTTT, Eggs, Robbnva, zeebu
Robbnva (2): LuckyOtter, Imperator

Not Voting (3): Jocus Aevorum, ClearlyClarity, pema22

458
Imperator (4): TTTT, Eggs, Robbnva, zeebu
Robbnva (3): LuckyOtter, Imperator, Jocus Aevorum

Not Voting (2): ClearlyClarity, pema22

475
Imperator (3): TTTT, Robbnva, zeebu
Robbnva (3): LuckyOtter, Imperator, Jocus Aevorum
ClearlyClarity (1): Eggs

Not Voting (2): ClearlyClarity, pema22

507
Imperator (3): TTTT, Robbnva, zeebu
ClearlyClarity (2): Eggs, LuckyOtter
Robbnva (2): Imperator, Jocus Aevorum

Not Voting (2): ClearlyClarity, pema22

559
Imperator (3): Robbnva, zeebu, ClearlyClarity
Robbnva (3): Imperator, Jocus Aevorum, pema22
ClearlyClarity (2): Eggs, LuckyOtter

Not Voting (1): TTTT

635
Robbnva (5): Imperator, Jocus Aevorum, pema22, LuckyOtter, Robbnva <-- LYNCH
Imperator (2): zeebu, ClearlyClarity
ClearlyClarity (2): Eggs, TTTT

Things that stand out to me:
1. As I already mentioned both CC and pema are avoiding voting for a really long time
2. What I didn't notice before is that Jocus is not voting for much of the game. @Jocus why was that?
3. VC 475 makes me think Eggs is probably town, except in the case of scum!Imp. I could see in an Eggs/Imp situation that Eggs wouldn't want to vote his partner or join the mislynch. If Imp is town I think Eggs is too.
4. Right around VC 559 is where we need to focus attention. I don't have the time for it atm but this is where I was talking about there being interesting movement.
5. Surface-level analysis, however, suggests that a pema/CC pairing isn't impossible. CC is in danger of getting lynched and so they both finally spring into action in different directions.
6. There is no chance imo that scum is off the robb wagon. I'm looking mostly at pema and jocus atm given voting patterns but I'm not sold on town!Imp yet
7. That said, gut says it's unlikely both scum are on the wagon. Like, let's say the team is imp/pema as I once suspected. It makes sense to try to drive up an alternative wagon to Imp's, but then CC would be an obvious place to land a vote.

More later.

[LuckyOtter]

VOTE: Jocus to give him some pressure. Like I said, he hasn't given many good contributions, if he is town he should step it up.

Tip: Telling someone you're voting them for pressure makes the pressure vote useless because the person knows the vote is not serious.
I've literally done the same thing as newbtown so I'm not reading into this. Just saying.

[LuckyOtter]

So I’m currently voting for cc and I wasn’t on the robb wagon. He was pretty town, totally deranged, but town

This post seems like something scum would say to give themselves towncred for retroactively town reading someone. I know you didn't vote for Robb, but can you point me to some posts where you said he was townie during the actual day?

This is a fair point

[LuckyOtter]

I’m still ok with keeping my vote on cc, but pema, whoa. Think it was a newbie thing?

What exactly did pema do wrong here?

I assumed pema didn’t factor in your unvote and tried to hammer.

Wait wait wait my mistake!!!!- this sounds so stupid and totally my fault- I for some reason still thought it took five to lynch and wasn't thinking- I wouldn't have voted for Jocus if I knew it would be the final vote, I never intended to try and vote him out without giving him an opportunity to talk and explain himself.

I know this sounds so bad but it's the truth!
Still think he is scum though.

Not sure I buy this, but will consider it.

I'll be busy today but will look for time tonight to catch up. I'm realizing that we're starting to run out of time and I haven't gotten around to digging deeper into the vote counts yet.

[LuckyOtter]

I’ve played a crap game. Took kid to the hospital last night, he’s still not feeling well. Lynch away, this game was crap to begin with and it’s been a nightmare to try and stay on it. I’m just a VT and I don’t have any reads to give you because I haven’t read the thread enough lately. I can hammer myself if you guys like and make some sort of record of self hammering townies day 1 and 2

Good god please don't self hammer.

Real talk: Sorry about your kid. Hope he'll be OK.

Game talk: I repeat, don't self hammer. Nobody is going to let this end in a no lynch. I'm not sold on you being scum but I'll hammer if it's the only way out of a no-lynch. Nobody's going to let a no-lynch happen.

[LuckyOtter]

Welcome! First day here? I'm assuming you're not an alt.

Apologies in advance for what you're about to read. I promise this isn't normal.

We won't really have any questions for you until you give us some of your impressions. You obviously can't answer for Jocus, and it's not good form to ask replacements leading questions (as a general rule)

[LuckyOtter]

Conversely, you can feel free to ask us questions to help you get in the game quicker.

And yeah. Things got heated quickly.

Doing my own catch-up now.

[LuckyOtter]

I've never played with Robb before. You'll see I went back and forth on him. You'll find my tipping point on my final vote for him in 582. The voting movement looked scummy to me. I think I did let my emotions get the better of me a little bit but I was very aware of them and trying to keep my head in the right place and base my vote on logic.

I think Pema is still a good contender. As for partner, that's what I'm sorting through right now. Vote count 559 tells me if Pema is scum you are almost certainly not the partner. CC and Imp are possibilities (although I think I had a reason for thinking IMP/Pema wasn't a possibility earlier that I need to check on). Nor is Eggs a possibility because I think Eggs is only scum if Imp is also (based on VC 475. Zeebu is the only other possibility and I haven't explored that yet. Doesn't strike me as impossible off the top of my head.

[LuckyOtter]

Derp. Imp/Pema isn't likely because it would be weird for them to be voting together on Robb, especially when Pema could have just gotten on the CC wagon. That doesn't line up.

[LuckyOtter]

Looking at associatives, these are the two most likely scum pairings I'm seeing:

Imp+KIY/Jocus
Imp+Eggs

I don't have time at the moment to go into details, but fire away with questions and I'll answer tonight. I'll look at these two pairings and do a case on each one to assess likelihood (current ranking is on gut only). Basically, none of CC's, pma's, or zeebu's moves vote-wise make any sense with anybody else, as far as I can see (if you disagree, say so with a particular combo in mind and I'll respond).

VOTE: Imperator

[LuckyOtter]

I'll just say right now it's largely based on POE and assuming the scum team isn't bussing or bringing unwarranted attention to their partner when there are perfectly viable alternatives open.

[LuckyOtter]

Quick post. I'll come back to 1 when I have time later.
Too much sheeping b/w pema and CC yesterday and today. Like, if they're scum, they're making the exact same moves. No voting for a long time until late in D1. Both are voting your slot today. It's terrible scum play. And I can't find another pairing with either of those players that makes sense to me. So for now I assume both are likely town.

3. Gut says I trust eggs as town over your slot. Both of you are a little calculating but I think eggs' moves look a little more town motivated. I'll check that feeling later.

[LuckyOtter]

@mod

can we get an extension due to replacements?

[LuckyOtter]

I'm not clearing her slot, I'm saying I'd rather believe scum are trying to play a decent game. There's a lot about Pema's play I really don't like. If you can show me a pairing that makes sense, I'll reconsider. But I'm not seeing it.

Tell me more about what you think about imp

[LuckyOtter]

I will later. If you think cc might be scum tell me who you see as a potential partner.

[LuckyOtter]

Looking at associatives, these are the two most likely scum pairings I'm seeing:

Imp+KIY/Jocus
Imp+Eggs

I don't have time at the moment to go into details, but fire away with questions and I'll answer tonight. I'll look at these two pairings and do a case on each one to assess likelihood (current ranking is on gut only). Basically, none of CC's, pma's, or zeebu's moves vote-wise make any sense with anybody else, as far as I can see (if you disagree, say so with a particular combo in mind and I'll respond).

VOTE: Imperator

Sure! I have some more questions for you.

1) Are you happy with how day 2 has been panning out up to this point in terms of who has been getting votes?
2) What caused you to suddenly bail off of scum!Perma? Why do you not see {Perma+CC} as a realistic scum pairing?
3) Who do you think is likely town?

To answer this a little more, I've been more or less town reading Eggs, so Cc's vote on them didn't thrill me. Your slot was deserving of attention. Pema's vote on it looked potentially opportunistic.

Now let me ask you what is the point of question 1?

[LuckyOtter]

Tell me more about what you think about imp

In a quick sentence; he made a few not-good posts D1, but I thought that his interaction with Robb seemed like genuine unhappiness and I think that other players are more suspicious.

I will later. If you think cc might be scum tell me who you see as a potential partner.

Ugh. I'm already a bit worried that interacting with you is going to be a frustrating ordeal. From my point of view, the logic which you are using to shut down possible scum teams is very flimsy, and an approach that you've only very recently started using. I think that it is best that you give your opinions of her individually, then we start talking through possible scumteams

There's more to imp than his interaction with Robb.

My strategy for today is one that is not so useful D1 but rather useful D2, so yes it is a new approach. Yes we want to think about individual actions as well. But we can find potentially scummy behavior in everyone's individual actions. Pema and CC were both wishywashy D1. Your slot and imp read overly cautious and occasionally fake. Robb looked like he had a clear agenda. But Robb was just tunneled, and I'm obviously misreading at least 2 of you other 4. So individual analysis isn't good enough D2 (and obviously I boiled these down into very simplistic statements, but if I had to scumcase all of you I could). We have to look at bigger picture things. This helps avoid confirmation bias. Like, pema just feels scummy to me, but if I can't figure out a way to make a scumteam make sense with her, that probably means I'm confbiased and have to reset and figure out if I can read her in a townie light. Same for CC, and I can try to town case her when I'm able (won't be tonight)

Frankly, it's feeling like you're attempting to discredit my process and it's majorly concerning. Saying I'm trying to shit down pairings is at least a little bit disingenuous. I'm trying to figure out which ones are most likely. I already said I'm open to discussing any I've left out, and we've tested that once with cc and pema. If you disagree with my assessment and can make a case for them being scum together, I'm all ears.

[LuckyOtter]

Hi Otter! I will be happy to go through any concerns that you have with the point of the question once you have given an answer to it

I literally just did. Prior to vote count and associative analysis, it seemed like the right people (mostly) were getting pressure. In hindsight, imp should have gotten more pressure instead.

[LuckyOtter]

Dong, I had a townread on your slot early. Zeebu's play was weaker D2 but he was also going through rl tough stuff, so I'm inclined to ignore it. I don't see a pairing that seems very likely.

Maybe

You + KIY/Jocus but post 644 makes me think it's slightly less likely than {imp, kiy} or {imp, eggs}. Scum bringing unwarranted attention onto their partner like that without making a bigger push elsewhere seems unlikely.

So I'm most interested in your reads on those 3 players (imp, kiy, eggs).

[LuckyOtter]

So @Otter, I feel like we are having a major communications breakdown right now. I do not love the use of the associative pairings because fmpov it seems like you are ruling out players as potential scumteams due to any real associations with one another, even though busing/playing closely are completely valid tactics for mafia to use. I completely understand that there are situations where you have a narrow PoE and going through the possible scumteams within that pool is important to make sure the PoE makes sense. However, using it this liberally here is something that I don't have a lot of faith in. If I am misinterpreting how you are using this tactic, please correct it and I apologize in advance if it turns out that you are onto something here and I am obstructing.

Again,

I am not ruling out anything

. In my opinion D2 is all about Ockham's razor. Find the most obvious solution, and it's often right. If it's wrong, D3 is about figuring out scum's longer-term play. Nothing says we can't discuss those now, so if you think a pair like Pema+CC is playing a strange game to throw us off, sure, make that case. I'll listen.

I'm not going to say bussing is impossible or even implausible, because yes scum do it. But bussing is actually

not

a good strategy and most scum with

any

experience or who have at least done some research (there's plenty of writing on this topic) know that the best strategy is to keep numbers up and lynch town every time.

That said, distancing is totally a thing. And yes scum distance with votes. But the

general

strategy is to shade their partner without putting them in any real trouble, and pushing harder on town than on their partner. Bussing becomes a viable strategy when either it looks like the partner is inevitably going down, or some speculation has already been made on your pairing. Like, right now I can't rule out the possibility that Eggs is distance-voting Imp (it does strike me as unlikely, but now that I've made that pairing speculation a couple times, scum!Eggs has motivation to do some hard distancing on scum!Imp)

And here's the other thing, I am actively inviting everyone to test my claim that there aren't any better pairings than {imp + kiy} / {imp + eggs}. There are exactly 13 other combos that I have ruled out that anyone is invited to challenge. And I

need

them to be challenged in order to not get tunneled in on just one solution. Because if I had any other viable pairing to consider that

doesn't

involve imp,

that's

when I start looking deeper at gameplay. Until then, I go with the obvious solution.

[LuckyOtter]

Hi Otter! I will be happy to go through any concerns that you have with the point of the question once you have given an answer to it

I literally just did. Prior to vote count and associative analysis, it seemed like the right people (mostly) were getting pressure. In hindsight, imp should have gotten more pressure instead.

Okay, I'll focus the question more then.

Earlier in the day, there was a flurry of activity from Eggs/CC/Perma/Imp. During that time period, two major things happened...

1) My slot became incredibly close to getting hammered.
2) Zeebu was brought to L-1 and ended up roleclaiming as a result.

Based off of the reads you have given, Zeebu is the closest thing you have to a consistent town read and the Jocus slot has also not been your preferred lynch. However, despite this major events, you have not given any real reaction beyond just telling Zeebu to not self-hammer. What are your feelings towards these events?

1. Imp's vote on your slot was weak. As I pointed out, announcing that your vote is for pressure defeats the purpose. At the time I wrote it off as possibly a newbie move because I've done the same before as town, but it could also be an intended as a sneaky way to place a vote. Since he didn't remove or reassess that "pressure" vote once the wagon got going, that does look suspect (slightly points town!you). In fact, he's still on the wagon (while it is at l-1) when criticizing pema over her vote, which looks pretty gross.

Pema's vote... meh. There's some reasoning there that I don't really like, especially the apparent double-standard ('I'm new and looking to follow others' lead but Jocus is scum for not scumhunting...'). Again, if you can convince me on a pairing that makes sense, I have plenty of reason to scumread pema.

But I don't think the

timing

of the vote is as big of a deal as zeebu or CC tried to make it out to be, but that seems to be a misread at least on CC's part. Zeebu's reaction was probably the weaker one. It's the content of pema's vote that is problematic, not the timing.

2. So now I'm seeing that Imp is following Eggs' vote around and feeling much less confident about {Imp/Eggs}. It's not impossible but weird play (and by the way this is part of the point of listing the pairings; you challenge them, make me think and reassess, and we all come out better because of it; rather than say, shoot down the whole process...). Anyway, zeebu warranted at least a couple votes, and I actually liked Imp's reasoning for digging into zeebu.

CC putting zeebu at l-1... seems a little omgus-y. I wouldn't say I trust CC any more than pema.

[LuckyOtter]

Your slot has been very passive and uninvolved. Not overtly scummy besides that. Claimed tracker earlier.

Zeebu claimed VT, no? Vanilla townie

[LuckyOtter]

Damnit. I'm sorry. lol

But also, to what end?

[LuckyOtter]

eh... ok

BTW @ kiy I forgot to mention earlier I noticed a typo in my post 830: Should read "Saying I'm trying to

shut

down pairings is at least a little bit disingenuous." Not "shit down." That may have come off as harsh.

[LuckyOtter]

And for those who believe in intentional lurking. Lucky logged on today and hasn’t contributed either.

7 minutes later. Not a coincidence.

He’s scum ladies and gentlemen.

You know what, it is a fucking coincidence. It's 5pm here. I've just gotten home. I have work, and you know what, other games that are in various other states that I might be checking on. I might have been checking on the state of the two inactives of this game as well. And seeing that they're unresolved, I decide to get back in and try to move along. But you decide the only answer here is that I'm active lurking because you're so confbiased/deadset on painting me as scum that literally anything I do at this point you're going to spin.

Now it's pretty clear you're the one interested in doing misreps, bud.

VOTE: robbnva

Bookmarked this.

While Otter's reasoning here for not playing is sound, that isnt what matters.

This kind of voting style - voting someone not because you are confident they are scum, but rather because they have been pressuring on you with false or insufficent material - isnt town motivated.

viewtopic.php?f=83&t=79739
This quote here reminded me of this post, from my previous game,

Looking at Skygazer's ISO it's shitposting and the occasional but of play. Dong if you're gonna accuse me of filler and weak questions and come after me for that, but say nothing to Skygazer (or, actually, Purccocet) for the same thing (if not worse) then you're blatantly still just pursuing this timezone fuckery argument. This is a lame ass tunnel to make yourself out to be willing to be controversial so you can town clear yourself. I don't buy it for a second.
VOTE: dong

If you compare these two posts, they actually are pretty similar in content, (apart from the fact that i was pushing on conman with more than flimsy reasoning)
They both try to deflect the argument from themselves and onto other inactive players,
They both make valid argument for why they couldnt play but one that doesnt pertain to the reason people are scumreading them,
And they both make very weak arguments for voting the opposition. Notice how they dont even say they think the accusing party is scum.

What do you think, King? Are you still deadset on Clearly? Can you make time for this, then we can move on?

This is not a good representation of why I voted robb. Yes, I let emotion get to me a little, but I've made it clear that I ended up suspecting him over Imp or pema due to voting movements, in addition to the flimsy case he was trying to level against me.

[LuckyOtter]

alright im at page 13 and just reading robbs shitty posts are tiring me out. I'm legitimately wondering if i should skip to day 2 right now.

Sorry to ask you to slog through the mess but I think it's very important that you don't do this. There is a lot of voting movement toward end of day that I think is really important to look at so you can better understand where I'm coming from today.

[LuckyOtter]

Hi Otter! I will be happy to go through any concerns that you have with the point of the question once you have given an answer to it

I literally just did. Prior to vote count and associative analysis, it seemed like the right people (mostly) were getting pressure. In hindsight, imp should have gotten more pressure instead.

Okay, I'll focus the question more then.

Earlier in the day, there was a flurry of activity from Eggs/CC/Perma/Imp. During that time period, two major things happened...

1) My slot became incredibly close to getting hammered.
2) Zeebu was brought to L-1 and ended up roleclaiming as a result.

Based off of the reads you have given, Zeebu is the closest thing you have to a consistent town read and the Jocus slot has also not been your preferred lynch. However, despite this major events, you have not given any real reaction beyond just telling Zeebu to not self-hammer. What are your feelings towards these events?

1. Imp's vote on your slot was weak. As I pointed out, announcing that your vote is for pressure defeats the purpose. At the time I wrote it off as possibly a newbie move because I've done the same before as town, but it could also be an intended as a sneaky way to place a vote. Since he didn't remove or reassess that "pressure" vote once the wagon got going, that does look suspect (slightly points town!you). In fact, he's still on the wagon (while it is at l-1) when criticizing pema over her vote, which looks pretty gross.

Pema's vote... meh. There's some reasoning there that I don't really like, especially the apparent double-standard ('I'm new and looking to follow others' lead but Jocus is scum for not scumhunting...'). Again, if you can convince me on a pairing that makes sense, I have plenty of reason to scumread pema.

But I don't think the

timing

of the vote is as big of a deal as zeebu or CC tried to make it out to be, but that seems to be a misread at least on CC's part. Zeebu's reaction was probably the weaker one. It's the content of pema's vote that is problematic, not the timing.

2. So now I'm seeing that Imp is following Eggs' vote around and feeling much less confident about {Imp/Eggs}. It's not impossible but weird play (and by the way this is part of the point of listing the pairings; you challenge them, make me think and reassess, and we all come out better because of it; rather than say, shoot down the whole process...). Anyway, zeebu warranted at least a couple votes, and I actually liked Imp's reasoning for digging into zeebu.

CC putting zeebu at l-1... seems a little omgus-y. I wouldn't say I trust CC any more than pema.

I still don't think you are quite seeing what I'm getting at.

During the flurry of activity I am talking about pg. 30-32, there was almost what could have been an absolutely disastrous quicklynch, followed by a claim forced out from a slot you've given indication of TRing after it was brought to L-1. Did you never say to yourself or have the instinct "Hey, what these guys are doing right now is really dangerous, has hurt the town and could end up hurting the town even more. Maybe as the player with experience here, I should intervene and bring it under control so this doesn't continue"?

Are you talking about the movement around Jocus specifically? By the time I got around to the thread the movement had already stopped and Jocus was being replaced. There was no sense of urgency to do that.

[LuckyOtter]

And when it came around to zeebu threatening to self-hammer I very clearly made an effort to intervene. I'm not sure what you're expecting me to do. I don't monitor the game 24/7 and I can't get beetlejuiced into the game when there's a bunch of voting movement.

Frankly, the last several posts from you directed at me feel like you're trying to set me up for some kind of trap.

[LuckyOtter]

Hey folks, I'll be V/LA for a few days, but will try to catch up this evening if I can. I still think Imp is the best move.

@Mod: I am in favor of a deadline extension to give KIY and especially DE more time to digest and interact

[LuckyOtter]

Hi folks. Just getting back into town. I'll catch up soon as I can.

[LuckyOtter]

Yeah so I'll be voting pema but I also don't want to rush the day. I'm going to have to decide between dong and cc tomorrow and want to hear more from eggs first.

Pretty sure it's just pema/cc and now I'm mad at myself for giving you two the benefit of the doubt.

[LuckyOtter]

VCAs are perfectly valid ways to scumhunt tho?

"Better and convenient" i didnt say vcas werent valid ways to scumhunt, just as shitting while you're handstanding is a valid way to shit. It doesnt mean its the best way or makes any sense.

Like, you're letting your desire to coach Eggs overtake actually helping them scumhunt. I say quit waffling around and lay out your case on me if you want Eggs to see it that badly.

I am gonna let my urge to coach get in the way of everything. As i said, there is no point for me playing this game anymore besides at least try to transfer my knowledge. I can help you if you want, this isnt exclusive to eggs. I just didnt offer since you view me as an enemy as per our roles.
And no reason to lay out my case today. The lynch is pema, yes? We're just postponing so eggs can get his word in. If i laid out my reasoning now, it would get misinterpreted by both you and otter tomorrow. So no rush.

Why are you concerned what CC thinks about your intentions, though?

[LuckyOtter]

I'm honestly not sure how much I'll be able to reread this before end of day. I think it has to be pema/CC. pema/zeebudong just doesn't make sense as a pairing, votewise. I liked zeebu for town fairly consistently. I agree with dong re: lack of scumhunting from CC.

I need some real heavy convincing to buy either pema's counterclaim or a pema/zeebdong team.

[LuckyOtter]

I mean if their strategy was to bus the shit out of each other early on then it might make sense.

Convince me otherwise. Or of something/anything.

[LuckyOtter]

CC I'm pretty sure you're the obvious lynch tomorrow so yeah you might want to start putting your diorama together.

VOTE: pema

[LuckyOtter]

Um... 10 hrs left. Someone hammer.

[LuckyOtter]

Pretty sure it's CC but I'll hear her out

[LuckyOtter]

[LuckyOtter]

Sorry, holiday here. Still planning to vote CC but I still need to reread.

[LuckyOtter]

Thanks Plotinus. We've been kinda busy getting drunk and blowing shit up over here. Recovery day today

Also, I'll just hammer CC if she doesn't post. I'm thinking she's just caught scum and unmotivated to try to turn it around.

[LuckyOtter]

Thanks Plotinus. Thanks all for a good game.