Newbie 2038: Elements [Night 4]

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MURDERCAT
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Post Post #1175  (ISO)  » Sat Nov 21, 2020 3:22 pm

Just want to highlight the fact that JK on a scummy slot should claim.
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safebet222
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Post Post #1176  (ISO)  » Sat Nov 21, 2020 3:23 pm

Can you expand on your read of Mizzy?

Egix96
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Post Post #1177  (ISO)  » Sat Nov 21, 2020 3:41 pm

In post 1173, MURDERCAT wrote:This is a super weird take, I totally disagree

Eh, I stand by it. In one of my previous Newbie games this year I correctly identified someone as town using the same sort of reasoning.
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MURDERCAT
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Post Post #1178  (ISO)  » Sat Nov 21, 2020 3:41 pm

AGamblingPig
muh316


{fferyllt, safebet222}
{Spangled, Egix96}
{}
{}
{72offsuit, Mizzytastic}

Spoiler: Catchup though page 30
In post 450, Mizzytastic wrote:I didn't think much about it because at the time I said it it felt like the pressure was all activity based when it was kinda obvious he wasn't trying which I read as busy instead of alignment based. I agree he's gotten worse as he's talked.

I thought it could be omgusy cos it's informed specifically by interactions with me.

I was getting close to voting c4 but I'm curious why 72 is so happy voting there when he still has half his isos to go.

But we do need wagons - I'm not sure there is anyone here I have a confident scumread on VOTE: c4


Bad bad bad scum theatre between 72 and mizzy to justify the vote here. c4 looks town.

In post 483, 72offsuit wrote:
In post 476, JDye wrote:Dude, you said something super dumb (me switching tenses in one lost rings massive alarm bells) and youve refused to explain. If you're town, this is bad play.

I'm done with this. My votes sitting on you until I get an answer or you get elimmed.


Shut up. I just responded to your post


There is no way 72 says this as town, My slot does not look so scummy to be this dismissive.

skimming the stuff between my slot and 72, it's all scum posts filling the thread, increasing apathy.

looks bad I think too for Mizzy

LOL it is literally just 72 and Mizzy.

Not going to read right now, this slot is already town in my mind

Skimming spangled too, but I see a vote for 72 in so town lol

In post 630, 72offsuit wrote:Ill wagon everyone but mizzy.

The scum buddies being so obvious

Ah fferyllt no, bad reads in I think

Good vote egix in

skimming skimming skimming
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MURDERCAT
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Post Post #1179  (ISO)  » Sat Nov 21, 2020 3:41 pm

In post 1176, safebet222 wrote:Can you expand on your read of Mizzy?


Mizzy is scum with 72

(yeah when I am done I'll case them both)
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Post Post #1180  (ISO)  » Sat Nov 21, 2020 3:42 pm

I would be very surprised if it isn't the two of them to be honest.
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MURDERCAT
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Post Post #1181  (ISO)  » Sat Nov 21, 2020 3:43 pm

Please let's wagon 72 while I continue to catch up
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Post Post #1182  (ISO)  » Sat Nov 21, 2020 3:44 pm

Mizzytastic was prodded.
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world, and the other kind,’ and those who don’t say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs

MURDERCAT
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Post Post #1183  (ISO)  » Sat Nov 21, 2020 3:56 pm

AGamblingPig
muh316


{fferyllt, safebet222}
{Spangled, Egix96}
{}
{}
{72offsuit, Mizzytastic}

Spoiler: Catchup finale
In post 775, 72offsuit wrote:If the 3 on my wagon r all town i will eat my hat and humble pie postgame

So fake lol

In post 795, 72offsuit wrote:That post sucks badly.

No elim is fine given it takes us to 5v2 after a night kill. Rather than awkward 6v2 we have now.

It aldo sounds like jdye lining up miskicks if spang is town

Why are we letting the person being elimmed decide if we no elim lol

:cry: you were playing so well, me

Scum 72 and Mizzy literally got away with pushing for no elim lol

In post 886, Spangled wrote:Yes 6-2 is awkward, but we want to no-lynch at MyLo; that's when we ought to. Mizzy will just get killed tonight and we'll have nothing new.

Lol not if they are scum

In post 917, 72offsuit wrote:Bahaha killing muh

fake, I know 72 would have picked up on that post I saw

skimming all the 72 spam, no one else is really posting

blah blah blah nothing that is changing my reads, skimmed a lot because I'm getting tired, will probably go back and reread spangled's posts later.
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MURDERCAT
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Post Post #1184  (ISO)  » Sat Nov 21, 2020 3:58 pm

Ok everyone let's get a wagon on 72. I will post a case later, but I want some pressure there. We can do this town!

Also, if there was a JK on Mizzy or 72 I want to know now please.
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safebet222
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Post Post #1185  (ISO)  » Sat Nov 21, 2020 4:07 pm

In post 1176, safebet222 wrote:Can you expand on your read of Mizzy?


Sorry MC... I'm on mobile and missed the spoiler.

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Post Post #1186  (ISO)  » Sat Nov 21, 2020 4:11 pm

All good, they deserve a proper case anyway

The fact that 72 got away yesterday is a terrible crime that must be corrected though
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Post Post #1187  (ISO)  » Sat Nov 21, 2020 4:14 pm

So what do you make of FF hard def ending him at the end of day 2?

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Post Post #1188  (ISO)  » Sat Nov 21, 2020 4:16 pm

In post 834, fferyllt wrote:
In post 827, 72offsuit wrote:Mizzy. What r ur thoughts re: ff now.
Still not voting.


I'm not going to vote myself.

I'm not going to vote you.

I'm spooked about voting Muh.

I hate starting another wagon on someone who may not be around to react to it.

No elim isn't a complete disaster given it's evens.

I don't think I've ever been this comfortable not having a vote down near deadline!

This is the craziest replace-in situation ever.

In post 838, fferyllt wrote:
In post 835, 72offsuit wrote:You say u townread me and im the leading wagon, yet u arent really doing anything to rectify the siuation. Which points to scumFF[/quote

I will go ballistic if a player drops out of the sky and votes you. It won't be a pretty sight.

In post 911, fferyllt wrote:
In post 902, muh316 wrote:
In post 895, Spangled wrote:Look 4 minutes I think 72's wagon still has three on it. I really think we ought to save up the extra person for MyLo. Can we please get someone to flip who hasn't done much so that it's any easier to read tomorrow?


VOTE: 72


Don't.

MURDERCAT
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Post Post #1189  (ISO)  » Sat Nov 21, 2020 4:17 pm

I don't think scum hard defends a partner while that partner pushes you, it's a super weird dynamic. Scum is more likely to double bus IMO
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safebet222
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Post Post #1190  (ISO)  » Sat Nov 21, 2020 4:20 pm

I'm still gonna make some popcorn for when she gets back. Should make for some good reading.

safebet222
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Post Post #1191  (ISO)  » Sat Nov 21, 2020 4:23 pm

You gonna stick around some, MC? Let me jump on my PC, I want to ask you a few things.

MURDERCAT
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Post Post #1192  (ISO)  » Sat Nov 21, 2020 4:24 pm

Actually I am also about to start DND :lol:

But ask them, I'll be back in a couple of hours
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safebet222
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Post Post #1193  (ISO)  » Sat Nov 21, 2020 4:25 pm

Ok... I wish I had time for DnD... Started playing Basic Fantasy with my kids recently. Kind of itches the TTRPG bug while spending time with them.

MURDERCAT
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Post Post #1194  (ISO)  » Sat Nov 21, 2020 4:27 pm

In post 1193, safebet222 wrote:I wish I had time for DnD...


Me too :lol:

We have been going mostly weekly since march which is super fun, but I'm DMing a homebrew campaign which is super hard
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Post Post #1195  (ISO)  » Sat Nov 21, 2020 4:30 pm

Summary of where I'm at - super depression brain, no idea what's going on and seriously don't know if I'll actually get any more from reading up when I feel this bad. I'll try and catch up tomorrow but I legit can't make promises, I would have replaced but the PL here is already wrecked from replacements and I was trying to prove to myself I can get through a game. I might respond better to direct questions but *shrug*

I made a case for why I thought no elim was OK and stand by it. If I'm wrong it might be something to revisit post game?

ff first suggested no elim. I hadn't considered it, thought it through and then made a case after I convinced myself, though I thought it was more likely that we were claiming today. I thought 72 just went along with it? Like Safebet did too. Maybe I missed something but that's not how I remember it going down
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Post Post #1196  (ISO)  » Sat Nov 21, 2020 4:33 pm

Seriously though, I have no brain energy and advice for how to approach this game so I can contribute would be appreciated. At this point I'm probably looking at it tomorrow cos I'm close to passing out
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Post Post #1197  (ISO)  » Sat Nov 21, 2020 4:35 pm

How about you vote 72? :D
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Post Post #1198  (ISO)  » Sat Nov 21, 2020 4:41 pm

In post 952, Spangled wrote:
In post 947, Mizzytastic wrote:The reason I'm considering claiming is cos we have had an extra round of night actions for bodycount than we usually would have. Some of the setups have a decent chance of having extra clears beyond two uncountered claims which can really reduce the PoE. It also means that if scum counterclaim we don't end up losing if we get it wrong like we would tomorrow. I wanna think through all the options to try and present an optimal strategy and get feedback on it before anyone does anything, but I think there are probably some situations where we should claim and some where we shouldn't, decided by what town power there is and any results they've had.

I totally agree with seeing how the day plays out for now. I'm not saying "we should massclaim right now", I'm saying "I think there is a decent chance it's correct but it needs much thonk" :P

Your reasoning seems sound here, to me. We’re in quite a good situation as regards PRs; neither are dead and both have had several nights in which to do things. Clearing some people would be great. Likewise, the point about counterclaims is good; this is the right spot to massclaim because tomorrow scum could potentially counterclaim successfully.

Of course, if we had JK + VT, for example, that would kind of suck; we get no definite clears or confirmations because — theoretically — no kill the first night could be a no-kill gambit (unlikely but worth keeping in mind) or a protection of either scum or town. And there is the fact that NK analysis grinds to a halt; if two PRs claim they’ll be killed one after the other and that doesn’t give us much to work with there.

But on the whole I think we should still do it; if it’s B3, say, we can get quite a bit out of that. And if a PR were to die tonight and we hadn’t massclaimed, their potential clears or half-clears (so to speak) go with them to the grave. And tomorrow scum could counterclaim and win if they’re successful, which I’d like to avoid.

Yeah, I reckon we should.


In post 1137, safebet222 wrote:
In post 1126, Spangled wrote:
In post 979, safebet222 wrote:Ok... @Mizzy... I think 72 is correct that massclaim is not good for town here. I don't think there is incentive for scum to do anything but claim VT in any setup. Except for...

In post 973, 72offsuit wrote:a) If we are
I'm scum reading Spangled but not Mizzy for this... in a 1 PR setup, scum just claim vanilla, and the PR gets night killed.


In this situation, unless there was a NK gambit, the 1PR is JK... Scum could claim tracker or FN... So town can't even trust the massclaim result fully unless there is a doc setup. It might benefit town if we are in the cop and doc setup and cop has hit scum. And even then I'm not sure outing that before MELo/ ELo is good either.

Let me know why I'm wrong if I am.

I do see your logic here; I’m torn between the problems with massclaiming, but also the possibility that a cop with two greens, say, could die. Or even a JK with an either-red-or-green, or a tracker with a probably-green... I just think, more data is better.


Unless someone else wants to get into it with Spangled on this point, I'd rather not except to say what he wrote is not accurate and should not be used as a basis for deciding.


My questions...

1) I scum read Spangled for the top exchange but not Mizzy... confirmation bias on Mizzy due to UTR? Or is the stance on the massclaim idea NAI? I think mass claim is throwing away any advantage on the NK idea from D2.

2) What do you think about my exchange with Spangled below?

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Post Post #1199  (ISO)  » Sat Nov 21, 2020 4:44 pm

In post 1197, MURDERCAT wrote:How about you vote 72? :D


I've not read your case there yet. I was more looking for help with organising thoughts. I hate the fact I'm useless while being a UTR until you came along and I want to fix that uselessness.
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