newbie 2060: creatures, game ofer

[fferyllt]

Greetings Gentlebeings!

catching up!

But before I do that, where did you go, Bell?

[fferyllt]

UNVOTE: Ivyeo - They spoke; I'm happy.

S'ppose I'll poke an SE now:

VOTE: Egix96 - Hi. Feeling any town vibes from anyone? Or too soon to say, do you reckon?

I guess the above question applies to anyone who's around, really...

Saudade feels town so far - I can imagine the gears turning in his brain when I read his posts.

I'm feeling tempted to put Ahri in null-town for memeing about being scum, though admittedly it's a bit shaky.

Is Wheme simply being voted for making an apparent self-contradiction in his first post? Personally, I'm not finding that to be an issue, on a "scum would be more careful about contradicting themselves" level.

As for you, Clasko, I'm curious as to what your own thoughts are - considering that you haven't played in a long time, I imagine you would be eager to contribute.

I kinda like this from Egix. Which is interesting, because I was predisposed to view him with squinty eyes. We'll see where this goes.

considering that you haven't played in a long time, I imagine you would be eager to contribute.

The two aren't mutually exclusive from where I'm standing. If anything I'm more nervous due to being out of the game for a long time.

I'm curious as to what your own thoughts are.

(/T) - Town-lean:

(/T) on Demainer AND WhemeStar - their argument feels cyclical and non-scripted = less chance to be W v. W; also sparking discussion evidenced by Ivyeo's 79.
(/T) on Lukewarm - contributes to discussion and I like the tone of their posts.

I'm forming opinions on others that I don't want to give words to just yet. Stay tuned.

This post gives me townfeels. I like that he's put down early townreads. That's a lot of reads to potentially walk back if scum.

I kinda don't like Lukewarm and Demainer based on posts through page 6. Although I do like Lukewarm's 143? Gives me a sense of why he was pushing so hard to get someone to E-1 & claim and that point - that the game's pacing is different from what he's used to.

I kinda like Saudade's page 7 run of posts. Before that, not so much.

I love Saudade's reaction to the Wheme wagon re-gathering steam on page 11. But, I really hate Bell's entrance and his going a day without posting. Real life is a thing, though.

Demainer's posts bug me a lot. The Ahri nk looks like PR hunting to me, and could point to an SE slot, but we have some newbies in this game who are clearly not inexperienced.

Ivy's kinda wishy-washy but not overtly scum to me.

My townreads are egix, and Lukewarm, and I'm taking clasko's claim at face value. I'm glad I got to the egix read before seeing the cop clear! I might be firing on more than a couple cylinders this game!

I don't do hero solves, but this is day 2 with only townflips so...scum team Bell, Demainer? I want to look closer at the Saudade/Demainer interactions on day 1.

[fferyllt]

Hmm. That page 7 I liked was Saudade going after Demainer.

maybe not.

[fferyllt]

Okay, I have been thinking about the two possibilities,

1)

Clasko is fake claiming

If someone counter claims Clasko, then I am leaning towards if being Clasko + Demainer, but I will need to see who counter claims to really form a hard opinion.

2)

Clasko is the cop

That clears Clasko and Egix.
Leaving: - Bell - Demainer - Endlessdark slot - Ivyeo - Me

If no one counter claims Clasko, I am less pressed on it being Demainer, because a good portion of my suspicion of him came from Demainer and Clasko both appearing to clear / pull suspicion off of one another. Those worries would be assuaged.

To me, that would indicate that there is 0 to 1 scum between Demainer and Ivy. I do not see Demainer and Ivy being a pair, they have both voted the other, and in Demainer's case at least, it was done before there would be a need for scum to bus one another.

That would mean that there must be 1 to 2 scum between Bell and Endless dark (from my PoV, I don't need to consider me as an option lol) Before this analysis, I had Saudede listed higher on my scum/town scale, but now I am looking back under the assumption that at least one of Saudede or Endlessdark were scum. I noticed that Saudede made it clear that he did not think it was Ahri or Wheme on Day 1, and tried to push the vote towards Demainer. This kinda makes me a bit less suspicious of him seeing as how both Ahri and Wheme did in fact flip town. That narrows the gap, so I now have him and endless at about the same place for me.

So now I am looking back at Bell/Saudede's posts and Endless's posts based on the assumption that one of them is bad, and with that in mind the possible pairs from my PoV mind are:

• Clasko + Demainer (if Clasko is CC)
  
  
  Endlessdark
  + almost anyone Like I could see him paired with Ivy/Demainer/or
  Saudede
  
  
  
  Saudede
  Bell + Ivy

My head is starting to hurt trying to decide between endlessdark and saudede, so I think I'm gonna wait a bit more to give other people a chance to react to Clasko's Cop claim. Ivy, Bell, and

Endlessdark

have not yet chimed in

I like your thought process, but I'd be really surprised if Clasko is fake claiming under no pressure to speak of.

If Demainer and Bell don't make sense as scum together based on Saudade's page 7, that puts Ivy in the frame for me.

I'm gonna have to meta Saudade for partner interactions, I guess.

[fferyllt]

In this game, Saudade doesn't interact with his scumbuds and doesn't vote them. He said he was playing differently from usual due to out of game reasons. He trolled quite a bit.

This game is similar - very little interaction, no vote on scumbuds.

This isn't a full meta dive because I'm mostly interested in just figuring out if Demainer/Saudade make sense as a scum team given Saudade's page 7.

My conclusion is they don't make a whole lot of sense as a team given Saudade's most recent scum games.

But I definitely don't townread Bell. :/

I might wind up meta-ing a few more games.

-----------------------

@Demainer

With Saudade and endless both disappearing and not posting for a while, it's a bit difficult to figure out the last scum. I can see Egix and Saudade being w/w with Ivyeo.

Can you explain why you think Saudade/Ivy make sense together?

[fferyllt]

Bell, maybe I'm being too hard on you. You did post something similar to your reads list here in the Warehouse 13 game.

I disliked the post because it's kind of esoteric for a newbie game. That plus 3 posts after you replace in and nothing since then looks a little low energy.

Real life, though.

I need more from you.

[fferyllt]

Therefore, I think that our best option moving forward would be to target either Ivy or fferylly today (sorry, I know you just got here)

I don't totally hate the possibility of being mis-elimed as long as I get plenty of time (e.g., a good sized chunk of this 48 hour extension) to analyze the available (sparse-ish) data and interact with the player list. But, I'll probably get pretty snarky if it does happen.

[fferyllt]

Does this mean you believe the remaining wolf is in Ivyeo/Demainer?

Yes.

Do they make sense as a team to you? Because you're scumreading town atm.

[fferyllt]

I am quite certain on Ahri being an anti-spew kill, not a pr hunt. But, in either case, whether it's for antispew or pr, neither option is obvious to a newbie. There are more obvious targets in the thread, like Luke, who was both active and widely tr, or an se. Killing a newbie who has barely posted anything at all isn't something I'd expect from a 2x newbie team.

As I said, some of the newbies here may be new to MS, but show a level of game sophistication that isn't new to mafia. You, for instance.

The kill does kinda make sense as anti-spew, but I feel like Ahri would have been a possible miselim based on her day 1 play, which would have to be weighed up as well.

I tend to be meh about spew, though. One of my few skills as scum is misdirection regarding my partners.

[fferyllt]

That's a great kill for town no?

Ivyeo:\Her single D2 post does not read town to me either, at all. There was no way Ahri's death N1 was a "great kill", it was clearly an anti-spew play (which is also why I'm considering whether we have an SE in the scum team). Simply another post that doesn't contribute any sort of hard info on the game.

How was Ahri not a good kill for town? Not only was she a VT, but she was someone with plenty of suspicion on her.

This doesn't feel to me like something a scum player pushes about their nightkill. especially an anti-spew night kill.

There's stuff I don't like about Ivy's iso, but I dunno about these posts coming from scum who killed Ahri.

[fferyllt]

Ivyeo's mentions of endless are too few to make a solid conclusion.

I feel like you're walking around my entry into the game.

[fferyllt]

Ivyeo's mentions of endless are too few to make a solid conclusion.

I feel like you're walking around my entry into the game.

Convince me that my process of elimination is wrong then.

My role PM says your vote is wrong.

I scanned my predecessor's ISO and the first 10 or so posts convinced me I'd be getting a town role PM.

Aside from me, your POE may be right, which is why I asked you if Ivy/Demeaner make sense to you as a team.

My townreads are Clasko, you and Lukewarm. Bell maybe? I tend to be suspicious of his first few posts in games and then eventually his reads/stances just become near-unequivocal town to me when he's town. He's in the suspicious zone right now, but remembering that post he made about Prism in the Warehouse 13 game does put his reads list into a more townish light.

If Demeanor and Ivy are both scum, though, Demeanor's doing an ungodly amount of distancing for no apparent reason when I'm apparently miselimable despite my own read of my predecessor!

[fferyllt]

I'm going to wind up with nothing but wisps and sunbeams if I keep rereading. :/

Demainer's posts, iso'd, look better than my readthrough impression. He's put way more data into the game than most players have. The tempo of this game has really benefited scum, I think and I feel like I should be townreading effort to make things happen given that tempo.

Anyway, I just really like this post defending Lukewarm.

I don't find it problematic that Lukewarm posted 3 scumreads instead of 2. If he's on the scum team, then of course he'll know there are two scum in the game, so why deliberately draw attention to himself by ignoring that? Unless he wanted to make a point that he did feel that 3 players were scum, which is NAI.

And no specific preference between 3 scumreads is still a lot better than no reads at all.

This was a pretty nuanced position on Ivy/Wheme

Ivyeo and Ahri both give me bad vibes. They're posting very cautiously in the thread, Ahri hasn't said anything material at all, and Ivyeo seems to be creating an "I told you so" position to defend herself before WhemeStar's flip.

It does make me a bit less certain that Wheme is scum, because based on that, Ivyeo and Wheme can't be on the same team. But I'm sticking with my vote because I trust my gut feeling.

I feel that something is off about Clasko as well, but they've been active in the game posting reads and sharing their thoughts, so no strong thoughts on this one way or the other.

If you're scumreading me for apologizing to Wheme, then so be it, it's your choice. I was convinced our scum team was Wheme + Clasko, but with Wheme flipping town I've gone back to the drawing board and re-iso'd everyone.


Lukewarm: Wheme's flip hardspews Luke as town, this is the most certain read I have so far. It's possible that Luke went for an extended scum play, but I feel that's highly unlikely given the stage at which Luke spewed.

Clasko: I went into the D1 flip thinking he was lockscum, but now I've re-iso'd him he comes off as town. It's only a lean though. His "slip" on me and Wheme does not read scum to me now, and his D2 activity has been giving me good vibes as well, I see someone trying to figure things out rather than trying to force town into a conclusion.

Saudade: I can't read him. Most of the posts are one-liners, and in the ones that do offer some insight into his position on other players, it's mostly just vomiting reads without much of an explanation. Having said that, I do get the feeling that he's genuinely trying to get a read on other folks, and I don't see any kind of tmi posting (again, could just be that he's good at hiding it), so I'm very slightly leaning town here, though I'd be more comfortable with a null read.

endlessdark: Null for me. Not getting any scum pings here, but also not seeing any evidence that they're town.

Egix96: The only thing I have to say here is that he's gone after both of my current town reads/leans, and his reaction to Ahri's death seems forced. Lean scum for me.

Ivyeo: I'm hard leaning scum on this one, her entire D1 iso is essentially fossing everyone without truly committing to any sort of read (and when asked to provide them, hid behind the "I'm bad at it, don't want to lose us the game" excuse which hardly holds, you either have them or you don't). Her single D2 post does not read town to me either, at all. There was no way Ahri's death N1 was a "great kill", it was clearly an anti-spew play (which is also why I'm considering whether we have an SE in the scum team). Simply another post that doesn't contribute any sort of hard info on the game.

I also like the Clasko read in this day 2 list, given it occurred before the claim.

His wheme trajectory is kinda tunnelly, but not to the exclusion of discordant data.

[fferyllt]

Caught up.

People that care but might be good scum:
Lukewarm.
Egix.

People that don't seem to care in order of enthusiasm.

Endless dark
Demainer
Ivymeo.
Clasko

One thing I really don't like about this reads list is that Demainer is in the "don't seem to care" section wrt enthusiam.

[fferyllt]

Bell, Ivyeo?

[fferyllt]

That was my POE.

If I weren't still obsessively F5ing this thread in hopes of seeing a Bell post, I'd probably have a vote down right about now.

[fferyllt]

No. Demainer is not who I'm thinking about voting.

[fferyllt]

vote: Bell

[fferyllt]

VOTE: FF

*hugs*

Unsurprising as either alignment, but you're not being adoraBell.

[fferyllt]

Caught up.

People that care but might be good scum:
Lukewarm.
Egix.

People that don't seem to care in order of enthusiasm.

Endless dark
Demainer
Ivymeo.
Clasko

One thing I really don't like about this reads list is that Demainer is in the "don't seem to care" section wrt enthusiam.

Why is demainer in the unenthusiastic group?

[fferyllt]

Why did you replace into this game FF?
and why did you think your predecessor was town?

I almost offered to replace into your slot, but I couldn't quite townread it. I replaced into this slot about 50% because you joined and about 50% because I read my slot as town. Endless came off very town to me in the early game, sliding from rvs to srsbsns. I particularly liked his equanimous reaction to being early-wagoned.

[fferyllt]

To me it looks like he's running on autopilot, just pushing whoever and saying whatever. He is emotionally engaged, hence why Wheme seemed to think he was "tunneled" but I just think of him as like an NPC in marioparty on a stage where they just sort of run at you to try you knock you off the platform with 0 deviation or algorithmic pathing. Like an arrow.

That's a pretty good description of tunnelling. I saw some nuance to it on second read.

Do you think scum would be unhappy with the game's overall energy level?

[fferyllt]

I replaced into this slot because I thought it was a scum slot.
Boy was I surprised (I'm kidding, I didn't read this game before I replaced into and just wanted to play a newbie game and hang out with some unfamiliar faces).

Why did you join because I joined? We could have been fish friends, but now you're 39.33333% likely to be scum.

Obvs because I like playing with you and I think you should be relatively easy to sort with a little time! Re fish friends, it's sadly just not a good time for a large theme game, especially next week, although it's not as bad as when I bowed out. A newbie at the end of day 2 is a totally different level of commitment.

I look forward to swimming those turbulent seas sometime soon, though.

I have an incredible record of correctly reading newbie game slots I replace into. I guessed wrong once, on an SE slot. This game wasn't a wrong read. Factor that into your 39.33333%

IF you're town.

[fferyllt]

Yes, scum are extremely unhappy with inactive games with inactive towns. They just hate that.

I don't agree, Demainer seems like an SE more than a newbie.

I agree Demainer is experienced. He's not trying to hide it. There was still nuance in that wheme tunnel. I also really liked his observation about Lukewarm that I called out in an earlier post.

It was going back and seeing the nuance, seeing the Lukewarm observation, and thinking about his participation rate during a dragging, low-energy game that broke down my own initial scumread.

[fferyllt]

How do you feel about Ivy?

[fferyllt]

Yes, scum are extremely unhappy with inactive games with inactive towns. They just hate that.

I don't agree, Demainer seems like an SE more than a newbie.

My point, which I doubt you missed, is that Demainer is actively working against the inactivity.

[fferyllt]

I don't see any obvious anti-tunneling measures in Demainer's posts. SE's usually have those when they're trying.

What do you mean by how do I feel?
They constructed a blameless vote and argued that they were being very consistent this game with almost no trace of irony in their posts. They're very green.

Your push against Egix is off, why did you feel the need to push at him? You'd read the game beforehand right?

I'm not pushing against Egix. Even in the highly unlikely event that clasko is fake claiming, egix is almost certainly town.

I didn't read the game beforehand, just my 2 potential isos.

I had a townread from his day 1 posts, and then discovered in the first readthrough that two of my townreads were near-confirmed.

I'm pushing egix to reevaluate his read of my slot and think about his POE from that perspective, though.

I also wish he'd take the mantle of near-confirmed SE and lead a little, even if it leads toward elimming me, but that's a playstyle thing, and I've seen enough of his play to feel that he's not likely to do that.

So, my goal is to figure you out since if you're town you will have to stick in an oar here.

[fferyllt]

regarding anti-tunnelling measures, I don't necessarily expect to see that.

This post was what I saw as nuance in his wheme stance

Ivyeo and Ahri both give me bad vibes. They're posting very cautiously in the thread, Ahri hasn't said anything material at all, and Ivyeo seems to be creating an "I told you so" position to defend herself before WhemeStar's flip.

It does make me a bit less certain that Wheme is scum, because based on that, Ivyeo and Wheme can't be on the same team. But I'm sticking with my vote because I trust my gut feeling.

I feel that something is off about Clasko as well, but they've been active in the game posting reads and sharing their thoughts, so no strong thoughts on this one way or the other.

Wheme is an easy player to misread, even for experienced players. I *think* I have a handle on his towngame, but I haven't had an opportunity to test myself yet.

[fferyllt]

Stick in an oar?

move and steer our little boat.

[fferyllt]

I haven't missed much, you're playing a standard game where you started out by posturing and communicating your intent to all before voting me and asking leading questions, positioning yourself so that your reads are aligned with the most active people while pushing at the least active.

It's pretty blameless stuff, if I asked you why you'd say you wanted to inject life into this game and I would literally never be able to tell the difference between that and just getting town read and picking to side with those that have the most influence. It feels samey.

Have you meta'd me recently? I have some scumgames out there in metaland.

[fferyllt]

I was thinking earlier that I don't think you've ever played against scum-me unless it was as a hidden alt or something.

Also, not sure you've met replace-in ffery. I'm not the ball of fire I used to be as a replace in, but I do tend to grab the available data and run with it.

damn it. I'm already talking to you like you're town.

unvote:

I'm not sure how I'm going to go about sorting Ivy. :/

pedit: oh well. see you when you can show up again.

[fferyllt]

leading questions

I really try not to lead with my questions, though it's hard sometimes. Given my reaction to your 3-post replace in contribution, I'm not surprised I gave this vibe, though.

I remember Diamond Sentinel reacted this way to some of my questions in the smokefilled game. Which should alarm me, but you're Bell, so.

[fferyllt]

There's a literal-mindedness to Ivy's posts that I kinda vibe with, but there's so much of it, and it's not changed a lot as the game has progressed. There's also a stilted formality that feels like she thinks about what she's going to post pretty carefully.

These 3 posts:

Whilst I do see the scummyness in Wheme's posts, I'm not sure we want to cut Day 1 discussion to right here.

No no no........................!
it's the need to state the obvious that pinged me

I'm not sure what you mean by this exactly?

So, post 56 was "the obvious", and Ivy didn't see what he meant

And yet in her very next post she's explaining something Demainer posted to Wheme that to me seems to be about the same level of abstraction as what she didn't get from a post about her.

He's not neccesarly saying Dark isn't scummy, he's saying you are *more* scummy than dark, we want to execute our most likely scum do we not?

My scumreads are Whemestar, Ivyeo and Clasko.

Ivyeo does not seem to be contributing much to the conversation, and what they are sending is very wishy-washy. Their messages so far have been a vote, a quick unvote, and then this one:

Whilst I do see the scummyness in Wheme's posts, I'm not sure we want to cut Day 1 discussion to right here.

They just seem like they are being overly cautious, which I feel is more likely with a scum then a town.

Being honest, this mostly comes from being worried because my reads were *basically* 100% wrong last time I played, and I don't want to cause us to lose again. I have some reads but I'm not sure if they hold any water? Like I had bad vibes from Wheme but then their defense made me less confident in that, and now them trying to keep pushing defensively isn't feeling very towny to me, but again that's just kidna vibes and also nothing special for how town has been feeling. I had a town read on Clasko for example, because the whole W/W thing felt good, but also them saying they town lean *both* of them instead of "picking a side" makes me like them less. I still think I need more time to really have anything scum reads at this point, as I feel less sure on Wheme, but part of that may be a thing from the other games I play, as they're generally more strict on behaviorial stuff.

No no no........................!
it's the need to state the obvious that pinged me

I'm sleepy and will elaborate further tomorrow, but take into account that she's a newbie. Her posts don't yet strike me as needing-to-state-the-obvious (filler?) in a scummy way.

No but this tell was usually what newbies fell for while the veteran gods (me) knew to avoid it

If Ivyeo is not an experienced player, I can see stating things in a more-than-necessary clear way as expected. Ivyeo, what's your experience with mafia?

On a Fourm this is my second game, as said earlier first I got Mis-elim'd in F4, and But I'm pretty active in *other* social deduction games such as BoTC, though that feels more information based and less read based. I've also did Video mafia for a few weeks, but stopped as I didn't really vibe with it.

^^ I townread this when I did my first readthrough, especially where she was talking about her reads. I felt like she was showing her analysis, and although it's not really deep analysis, there's definitely some thinking-through that seems efforty for newbscum.

but video mafia for a few weeks, depending on frequency could be a fair bit of game experience even though video/in person is fast and pretty different from text based/forum mafia with long game days.

I don’t like how you are set on me being the flip on page 5

Yes its page 5 (well 6 now), but we are also on the 6th irl day for our in game Day 1. Maybe I am just not accustomed to the pacing of games on this site, but it feels like we are approaching the point where we just have to pick someone. Like there is only so much info we can really gain in day 1 until we force someone to claim, no?

I am getting pretty antsy for us to l-1 someone just so we can gain new info. Force someone to claim their role, then decide if we want to actually hammer the person based on what they claim. I mean if we wait to much longer, then if we L-1 someone, and decide we shouldn't hammer them, we won't even have long to form a new wagon.

I am not necessarily saying that I think it needs to be you, I would be happy for us to L-1 anyone on my scumread list tbh, so for now, I am gonna be on the biggest wagon between Whemestar, Ivyeo and Clasko.

VOTE: Ivyeo because I have sat on the Whemestar wagon for a while, and the Ivyeo wagon is the same size, so might as well mix it up lol

Do you not have preferences between the three of us? Your post makes it seem as though you just want to eliminate someone rather than anyone in specific, and you gave the three names that town appears to be most willing to eliminate right now.

This points up something that ran through the earlier posts, too. While not confrontational about it, she takes a lot of interest people scumreading her. The lack of confrontation seems a little off.

I'm forming opinions on others that I don't want to give words to just yet. Stay tuned.

- Ivyeo: - /M - Too back and forth on WhemeStar now, especially after the interaction with Lukewarm.

Whilst I am somewhat back and forth, my logic for it is consistent. My most recent vote on Wheme I took back because I didn't really have a strong reason to have a vote on him. It's more a gut feeling than anything so I decided I didn't want to be voting based on that. Tomorrow I plan to go back through some ISOs to try to form a more solid opinion, as I currently don't have a definite idea of who I'd want to go for.

@Ivy

"My logic is consistent" I'm not sure what you meant by your logic was consistent. The rest of your post doesn't lay out a logical progression, consistent or otherwise.



This next post shows concern and initiative about the deadlline approaching with the biggest wagon at E-2. Kinda want to townread that.

Unoffical Vote Count
WhemeStar (3): Demainer, Ahri, endlessdark
Demainer (2): Saudade, WhemeStar
Ahri (2): Ivyeo, Lukewarm
Clasko (1): Egix96

not voting (1): Clasko

With 9 hours left, what are we thinking?

I think this one was in reply to Wheme asking her about her Demainer read.

VOTE: Ahri

Town lean. With the clarification that his feelings haven't changed the inactivity is fine.

Rereading, I think my evil team would be Demainer>Egix. Luke would be my other valuable (town) read as I've agreed with most of what he's said, and he's pushing the game forward and importantly

Disscussing with the town what to do and why.

Demainer appears to be playing with the mindset that we will be executing what he wants, and not really pushing the discussion forward except toward what he's started to tunnel. Whilst he has a high post count, it's mostly been tunneling Wheme, who was a VT. I can't fully explain why all of this feels scummy, as it could also just a very tunnely and confident towny, but it just kinda *feels* scummy to me as opposed to that.

Egix I would more like an explanation from, as I found some of his posts a bit off. Most specifically...

I'm forming opinions on others that I don't want to give words to just yet. Stay tuned.

Probably about time I did this now:
- Egix96: - /M - Whilst I think his questions and contributions are helpful to town, they feel finely placed and thought-out... not enough to use the word "artificial" though..

I'm finding it hard to see how what you've written about me resolves to a scum lean overall, especially since you seemingly liked my 65 enough to warrant unvoting me.
.

Despite the fact Clasko said why he was voting Egix.

UNVOTE: Ivyeo - They spoke; I'm happy.

S'ppose I'll poke an SE now:

VOTE: Egix96 - Hi. Feeling any town vibes from anyone? Or too soon to say, do you reckon?

I guess the above question applies to anyone who's around, really...

They just wanted you to speak, then you tried to paint it as "liking the post enough to unvote," which is atleats disengenious. It's fairer to say they didn't dislike the post. This post,

If I'm answering truthfully, from my perspective, my nerves come from interacting with 8 strangers on the internet playing a game I love, but having outdated experience in.

Also, in response to being scum-read/bad reads, whilst I feel they're inevitable in every game, yes, I am afraid of making mistakes and looking bad. I also hate offending people and try to avoid it in games I'm in at all costs.

Like, I could definitely see this being an "It's not just because I randed scum, honest!" sort of post.

Also feels like you're almost using someone who may be a bit akward and trying to phrase it in a way that makes them look scummy, though ig akwardness could be a source for a read so anjdkwahdkjaw
Ethier way, I still feel Demainer more on a gut level, on top of what Luke was sayign, especially the Night kill stuff, which very much rubbed me the wrong way, and felt like it was trying to make me defensive. Clearer mafia mindset than with Egix.

VOTE: Demainer

I'll also try to rereread for a read (god awful sentece) on the others tomorrow, for now it's 5am and I haven't slept aaaaaaaaa

^^ This whole post is just kinda eh. She's gone from townreading to scumreading Demainer without a whole lot of explanation beyond that he confidently tunnelled wheme. And then the rest of the post is setting up a scumread of egix. The effort vs where the vote goes doesn't feel great.

And that's the last real post of substance.

I come in and go from a null read to a POE scumread within a page and the comment it elicited was something about if I was going to put her at E-1. Not much interaction with my predecessor either, beyond that talk about e-1 vs e-2 and answering a question about her Demainer read. I can see Endlessdark maybe fading into the wallpaper, but I've been a loud presence and I'm kinda surprised that didn't generate more ~something~.

[fferyllt]

I come in and go from a null read to a POE scumread within a page

For clarity, I mean that I go from a null read to a POE scumread on her

[fferyllt]

I'm going to go through Luke's posts either tonight or tomorrow morning.

We're at about 37-38 hours on the clock.

[fferyllt]

If you have questions for me, post 'em. I've put a fair bit of content and thought process into the game to pick at.

[fferyllt]

Why are you not on a team with Ivy?

(Before any complaints, I know it's loaded, it's the whole point)

That's not something I answer with an argument. That's something I prove with my play.

[fferyllt]

who's the second scum, is it bell or ff

hmm.............

I have a predisposition to scumread stuff like the bolded. Which is why it took a Page 7 for Saudade to shake off my initial reaction to his play.

[fferyllt]

That's not what I asked. Why do you think I should think that you're not on a team with ivy?

If necessary, it can involve an analysis of your own play.

How do you think a player like Ivy would have reacted to a scum partner coming in with a null-town read and then in the course of 4-5 hours, with no interaction, switching to a POE scumread?

What was your read of Endless?

I'm not sure how she would react to something like that if that were what's going on here.

There's a fatalism that's creeped into her day 2 play that I didn't really feel in her day 2.

I realize I'm not answering your question. It's just not how I think about a game, especially one like this. As town, my interactions are all necessarily Town vs (??) with an occasional exception.

[fferyllt]

I didn't really feel in her day 2.

in her day 1

[fferyllt]

eh. I was hoping for more real-time interaction, Demainer. :/

[fferyllt]

I would still like a response to my question.

Why are your interactions all necessarily town? That statement already assumes your interactions could potentially not be town, so why isn't that the case?

No, my statement assumes I can't possibly not be town. There is no subterfuge in what I've posted. The only way I have ever seen anyone form a useful read on me is by seeing me interact with data and form my own reads. I wasn't here in the moment from the start of this game, so the next best thing is to just read the previous posts and react to them, and then interact with new data as it hits the thread. Usually players figure me out when they can follow my trajectory and see how I've come about my reads. The process is extremely compressed here, but I feel like I'm putting more than enough into the thread to be readable.

Bell saw what I'm doing and characterized it in a way that I disagree with, but I can see town-him thinking that about my play here because it's catch-up play.

It's always interesting to see that kind of stuff through a different lens, but it's a whole lot more interesting after the fact when I

know

the player's alignment.

I still don't think I'm answering the question you're trying to ask and at this point it's not really clear to me what you ARE asking because the re-asks don't clarify the asks. but maybe there's something useful in the answer you're getting.

[fferyllt]

Spoiler:

vote count 2.3

Ivyeo (2):

Demainer, Lukewarm

fferylt (2):

Egix96, Bell

Demainer (1):

Ivyeo

Lukewarm (1):

Clasko

not voting (0):

fferylt

with 7 alive, it takes 4 to eliminate a player. day 2 ends april 16th at 3:30 central US time; in (expired on 2021-04-16 03:30:00)

mod notes

• ooba

[/area]

Teamhunting really isn't my strong suit but I think it's critical in this gamestate. If I can't find a partner for Ivy, I'm not super comfortable about voting there.

[fferyllt]

Who do you think is on the team?

Who do you think is, and why? You intimated you think it's Bell or me.

Which flip clarifies the most?

[fferyllt]

I'm not going to be awake much longer tonight. Tomorrow I'll be able to spend most of the day on it and I want as much of the available time till deadline as possible to work on this.

Please, no early hammers. I'll just go ahead and call it a scumclaim if someone prevents my finalized reads from hitting the thread before this day ends.

[fferyllt]

Yes, scum are extremely unhappy with inactive games with inactive towns. They just hate that.

I don't agree, Demainer seems like an SE more than a newbie.

I agree Demainer is experienced. He's not trying to hide it. There was still nuance in that wheme tunnel. I also really liked his observation about Lukewarm that I called out in an earlier post.

It was going back and seeing the nuance, seeing the Lukewarm observation, and thinking about his participation rate during a dragging, low-energy game that broke down my own initial scumread.

If Demain is more experienced than I thought he was, then his push on Wheme was just terrible. It's something I can see coming from inexperienced town (personal comparison: 1898 Egix) but once you're past the early spike of the Dunning-Kruger curve you should know that you can't just mindlessly tunnel someone until they just die.

Do you remember Wisdom or was he before your time?

I've known more than a few experienced players who deathtunnel. And some who use their deathtunneling reputation to advantage when scum, for that matter.

There are a few other signs of experience, but the strong opinion about Ahri's NK being antispew vs PR hunting suggests experience to me. I think spew terminology migrated to MS from MU, but the concept of low-info kills has been around for as long as I've been playing mafia.

Ivyeo's mentions of endless are too few to make a solid conclusion.

I feel like you're walking around my entry into the game.

Convince me that my process of elimination is wrong then.

My role PM says your vote is wrong.

I scanned my predecessor's ISO and the first 10 or so posts convinced me I'd be getting a town role PM.

Aside from me, your POE may be right, which is why I

asked you if Ivy/Demeaner make sense to you as a team.

My townreads are Clasko, you and Lukewarm. Bell maybe? I tend to be suspicious of his first few posts in games and then eventually his reads/stances just become near-unequivocal town to me when he's town. He's in the suspicious zone right now, but remembering that post he made about Prism in the Warehouse 13 game does put his reads list into a more townish light.

If Demeanor and Ivy are both scum, though, Demeanor's doing an ungodly amount of distancing for no apparent reason when I'm apparently miselimable despite my own read of my predecessor!

Ohhhh I thought you meant if either of them made sense as a partner with you.
I'm about 70% confident that Demain/Ivy is not svs. Am I right in thinking that your level of confidence is a bit higher than mine, based on the end of what I'm quoting here?

No, I'm not asking you to speculate on partners with me. You can entertain that idea all you like, but it's a waste of time that I'm not going to dignify.

I spent some insomnia hours thinking about Ivy partners and I'm having trouble coming up with one. I'm going to spend a little time looking at Saudade/Ivy interactions again.

[fferyllt]

Saudade's level of interaction with Ivy and Demeanor don't feel partnery to me, given the two very recent scumgames I looked at yesterday. He's competent as scum and doesn't appear to hate rolling the alignment. I feel like scum-Saudade was more likely to continue playing than town-Saudade was in a game with this level of activity, but it's not a very informed opinion, more of a generic take based on players I think are similar to him.

I'm not happy with Bell's level of engagement, but I did kinda like how our sparring last night went. My gut thought I was talking to town-Bell, though my brain isn't completely on-board. I'm thinking back over our recent games where he was town and I don't usually townread him right off the bat. Eventually he posts enough content that I can see some of our reads converge and that's usually when the townread solidifies. There isn't going to be time for that this game day, and I can't make this a full-throated townread based on his activity alone.

I think this is the first time I've played with replace-in Bell, and it's not an ideal game for developing a yardstick given the low content and his availability.

[fferyllt]

I'm looking a lot harder at Lukewarm because if I'm right about Saudade and I'm right that there isn't an obvious partner for Ivy which decreases her scum equity, then Lukewarm is in the frame. If he's town, then I'm wrong about Ivy.

There's a missing piece of the puzzle if you're trying to figure out my reads. My Demainer townread has degraded and I'm considering him as scum.

Reading through Lukewarm's ISO, every stance and stance change is well telegraphed, and well thought out. And that alone actually pings on a non-surface level. Lukewarm is playing a cautious game. And that may be a personality thing but maybe not.

It reminds me a little of my first mafia game at MS. I drew scum in my first newbie. I had about 4 years of experience playing on other sites with much shorter game days, and I decided to play the game like I was a semi-experienced player who knew the lingo but had sort of naive ideas about scumhunting. My theories were solid (though not very imaginative) and my trajectories were flawlessly telegraphed. And the one big ping anyone mentioned the whole game was about a post I would have made as town without hesitation to deflect attention from an obvious PR. Anyway. That was a strategy I could only use once at MS and it worked great for that one game.

I don't usually look for "too perfect to be real" play in newbie games, but my other reads kind of force this issue.

The other possibility I entertained last night is that Demainer came into day 2 thinking that with 2 town deaths the scum team was somewhat exposed and mega-distancing was called for. This would explain how passive Ivy has been, maybe, if she's being bussed.

So, my theories are: {Demainer, Ivy}, {Demainer, Lukewarm} which leads to me voting Demainer today.

Barring PR data suggesting otherwise, I think Demainer has to be the elim tomorrow if y'all go elsewhere today.

[fferyllt]

Also, if I'm wrong about Saudade and Bell is scum, then the nature of interaction between Saudade and Lukewarm make a {Bell, Lukewarm} team possible, and both Demainer and Ivy unlikely scum partners. This is actually my nightmare scenario if tomorrow is 3-2 elo.

[fferyllt]

But then again, why isn't she fighting back if they want to leave as much distance as possible? Even if it's an intentionally weak push just so that it doesn't risk Demain going down first.

She is voting him, so there's that.

I expected her to switch to me at some point though, since I became her counterwagon. It makes sense for her to do that as either alignment. And it makes sense for me to vote her, as well. I just can't see her as the most likely scum in this gamestate. Your vote changes that dynamic, but that was where my head was at when I saw the last VC.

[fferyllt]

I'm not going to be awake much longer tonight. Tomorrow I'll be able to spend most of the day on it and I want as much of the available time till deadline as possible to work on this.

Please, no early hammers. I'll just go ahead and call it a scumclaim if someone prevents my finalized reads from hitting the thread before this day ends.

My insomnia brain worked overtime last night, so I don't feel like I have much more to say about what's transpired in the game. I did some thread data checks to see if I could poke holes in my theories this morning, but that's basically done. Although my reads could change based on what hits the thread going forward, don't feel like you have to wait on more catch up from me at this point.

Egix, in terms of your deep wolf scruples, if you want to see where my theory thoughts come from, you can read my wiki Terms of Art regarding trajectory analysis. It's kind of a corollary of the last paragraph of that section. Lukewarm's play borders on that. And like I said, I probably wouldn't go there if I felt there were good candidates for Ivy partners. Demainer's the only possible candidate to me, and that's not a slam-dunk.

I feel like the gamestate leads to my slot as the likeliest candidate for an Ivy partner, but my role PM says nope. If Ivy's flipped and is town, I don't think that clears me to the extent that my flip could clear Ivy, and that's the source of some extremely unwelcome fatalism on my part. If Ivy is town and she's flipped today, I feel like I'm still a strong miselim candidate for tomorrow at elo.

On the other hand, if I'm flipped then my reads become confirmed town reads and I hope that town players would give them some serious weight on day 3.

Egix unvoting me (at least for now) changes the calculus somewhat, but I'm not convinced it's a good thing^tm for town if I'm alive on day 3.

fatalism is a terrible drug, kids. don't do it.

[fferyllt]

Who do you think is on the team?

Who do you think is, and why? You intimated you think it's Bell or me.

Which flip clarifies the most?

This is something I'm more willing to revisit tomorrow when ivy flips scum, hopefully a blocker so clasko has another night result.

ivy is my most certain read, i'm not going to go for either you or bell for the sake of getting "info", my objective is to clear scum first.

One of the three of us is almost certainly today's elim. if you're town then Ivy's scum equity necessarily goes up. But, I don't know that. I have to extrapolate from the thread data.

[fferyllt]

who's the second scum, is it bell or ff hmm.............

Which of their predecessors do you think was more towny iyo?

My opinion of end/sau hasn't changed, I still find sau's posting slightly more positive. ff is not villagery at all, it's all a pseudoconspiracy trying to prevent ivy from being elimed so the scum team can both block the cop and nk someone else, probably the confirmed town egix. Tomorrow they can case bell/ivy w/w and luke dw again.

Have a look at my user title. trajectory is my thing and I made it a thing at MS. Some people fetishize VCA, which I'm never going to put much stock in unless it's a trajectory-based analysis of wagons. Which I hardly ever do, myself, because it's insanely intensive in most game settings.

Anyway I'm metaphorically giving you my strongest "math teacher staring down a rather long nose at your sad algebra attempt" look over your pseudoconspiracy characterization.

[quote="Demainer"
Which three?[/quote]

Ivy, you and me.

[fferyllt]

quote fail.

Which three?

Ivy, you and me.

[fferyllt]

I can't be scum with Ivy because I'm town.

End of discussion afaiac.

Demainer, Ivy's last post kinda nailed something for me and I was going to just go ahead and vote you here and now.

This is kinda your last chance to convince me that's a bad idea. Discrediting me isn't going to do it for me.

[fferyllt]

I've been in the game a little over 24 hours and I've been reading and rereading isos obsessively for most of my time spent on the game.

This compresses my thought processes, and mercurial read changes are a side effect of processing speed.

I feel like I've put plenty of reasoning down, though, whether you like how I reason or not!

Egix and Clasko are the only reads I can't make myself reexamine, though I have a tiny niggle in that Clasko seemed to soften their scumread of Egix before the end of day 1, and yet that's who they copped. But, I have a couple theories on why that could happen and I'm not interested in poking there at all.

Saudade's play here vs his 2 recent scum games makes that slot less likely scum IMO. Outside of egix/clasko the only player I think makes sense as scum with that slot is Lukewarm just because of the minimalist, reactive way he interacted with scumbuds in the games I looked at.

And that's why my reads are what they are.

[fferyllt]

If you're town, then my nightmare scenario may be real. :/

I really wish I had more sorting time with Bell because I would love to be able to take that scenario off the table.

[fferyllt]

and on the gripping hand, you're a small but significant part of my feeling that miseliming me today is better for town than me being alive, and I really wish I didn't feel that way because it clouds my perceptions of other players. I don't self-vote, but I definitely don't fight my elim as hard as I could when I feel this way.

[fferyllt]

My thoughts on the last few posts that aren't mine:

Demainer didn't jump at the opportunity to move to me, which lowers his already low-ish probability of being scum with Ivy.

Lukewarm did move to me, which increases the probability of Lukewarm being scum overall, which also increases {Lukewarm, Bell} probability, imo, which makes me sad because I really wanted to be correct about Saudade-town. Of course, The possibility of {Demeanor, Lukewarm} is still a somewhat indeterminate cloud of probability to me.

I'm in the interesting circumstance of being able to analyze my wagon pre-flip, and I'm going to use it to the fullest extent possible during the next few hours. And I want this info to be thought about tomorrow when more alignments are facts in evidence. quite possibly including my own!

[fferyllt]

My thoughts on the last few posts that aren't mine:

Demainer didn't jump at the opportunity to move to me, which lowers his already low-ish probability of being scum with Ivy.

Lukewarm did move to me, which increases the probability of Lukewarm being scum overall, which also increases {Lukewarm, Bell} probability, imo, which makes me sad because I really wanted to be correct about Saudade-town. Of course, The possibility of {Demeanor, Lukewarm} is still a somewhat indeterminate cloud of probability to me.

I'm in the interesting circumstance of being able to analyze my wagon pre-flip, and I'm going to use it to the fullest extent possible during the next few hours. And I want this info to be thought about tomorrow when more alignments are facts in evidence. quite possibly including my own!

You literally had me and ivy as the most probable scum team, said you were going to vote for me on that basis, and now I'm not scum with ivy?

And apparently, the probability was "already low-ish"?

Lampshade to the max.

I didn't make a post about my thoughts changing because the thought-change was a result of your inaction, which I couldn't predict for sure.

And you're demonstrating that you don't really understand my thought process:

-- Ivy's behavior doesn't make sense as scum because of her day 2 paralysis.
-- If she is scum, the only player I think she makes sense as scum is you and that would involve the Demainer/Ivy team thinking that the N1 kill not being a PR puts them in a bind and they need to distance. And you are the more valuable scum role.
-- You don't make sense as scum with Saudade, based on what I've gleaned of Saudade's scum play.
-- Therefore if you are scum, my best guess is scum with Lukewarm, and a much lower probability of scum with Ivy.

You not voting me lowers your overall likelihood of being scum, and your reason for not voting me -- that Ivy is a stronger scumread -- lowers your probability of being scem with Ivy even more, when there's a viable alternative to either of you being elimed.

[fferyllt]

I still think the Ahri kill makes sense as PR hunting, possibly with some fear of a protect/jk interfering with killing someone more universally townread. As scum I certainly weigh threat-to-my-team with likelihood-of-protection. N1, scum knew more about the game design than town did. They still do, since they know if they are 2 goons or not.

[fferyllt]

More lampshading.

I don't take issue with you suddenly thinking I'm not on a scumteam w/ ivy because of my "inaction" or whatever. It's the fact that you emphasized the probability was "

already

low-ish" that is the problem.

I had already expressed that the probability is low-ish to egix, though? I explained the same basis for a you-ivy scum team in one of my posts to him.

From my perspective, the only players in the frame as possible scum are you, Ivy, Luke and Bell.

If you're scum

You-Luke - strongest likelihood. Your Ivy vote makes sense and your me-discredits make sense
You-Ivy - lower likelihood. You adamant Ivy vote only makes sense as a distancing thing and not moving to me is on the face of it anti-wincon, although you might feel boxed in by your earlier stances
You - Bell lowest liklihood due to Saudade's positioning wrt to you

[fferyllt]

Please explain how Dem/Ivy scum team is both the most likely possibility, and one you feel certain to the point of declaring you'd vote for me (but not actually doing it), and somehow also a low-ish possibility at the same time.

Once again, YOUR ACTIONS/INACTIONS have changed my read of you since last night. Sort-of-threatening to vote you was mostly to see how you'd react. I could have actually put that vote down, but I felt like it wasn't necessary to get a reaction from you.

But more importantly, I tend not to vote while I'm a viable elim candidate because it jostles my wagon and makes the movements harder to read. In this circumstance, I probably won't put a vote down except to prevent no-elim, unless (against my expectations) I cease to be a viable elim candidate.

[fferyllt]

My flip, now or later, will resolve my sincerity. And once that's resolved I expect my final thoughts about your and other players' likelihood of being scum to be taken into account.

Hilariously, the last game I played (which was abandoned, but w/e), a town player was pushing for my elim on day 1 with the intent of following my reads for the rest of the game if flipped town. I was scum, and the trade wasn't acceptable to me. Now I am town and am demanding that my reads get some consideration posthumously. What a difference alignment makes.

[fferyllt]

Please explain how Dem/Ivy scum team is both the most likely possibility, and one you feel certain to the point of declaring you'd vote for me (but not actually doing it), and somehow also a low-ish possibility at the same time.

Once again, YOUR ACTIONS/INACTIONS have changed my read of you since last night. Sort-of-threatening to vote you was mostly to see how you'd react. I could have actually put that vote down, but I felt like it wasn't necessary to get a reaction from you.

But more importantly, I tend not to vote while I'm a viable elim candidate because it jostles my wagon and makes the movements harder to read. In this circumstance, I probably won't put a vote down except to prevent no-elim, unless (against my expectations) I cease to be a viable elim candidate.

You rely on your own meta to explain why you don't vote, but you can't explain why you're not w/w with ivy?

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

You want a meta argument for that? The meta argument would be that I don't consider myself a strong enough scum player to bring my whole team to elo unless I'm the weakest player and riding on my team's coattails.

My strongest skill as scum is probably in distancing.

I have a decent scum winrate, but every single game I can think of where I was the strongest scum player, I won in either 4-1 mxlo or 3-1 elo.

[fferyllt]

Ivyeo's mentions of endless are too few to make a solid conclusion.

I feel like you're walking around my entry into the game.

Convince me that my process of elimination is wrong then.

My role PM says your vote is wrong.

I scanned my predecessor's ISO and the first 10 or so posts convinced me I'd be getting a town role PM.

Aside from me, your POE may be right, which is why I asked you if Ivy/Demeaner make sense to you as a team.

My townreads are Clasko, you and Lukewarm. Bell maybe? I tend to be suspicious of his first few posts in games and then eventually his reads/stances just become near-unequivocal town to me when he's town. He's in the suspicious zone right now, but remembering that post he made about Prism in the Warehouse 13 game does put his reads list into a more townish light.

If Demeanor and Ivy are both scum, though, Demeanor's doing an ungodly amount of distancing for no apparent reason when I'm apparently miselimable despite my own read of my predecessor!

This is the post to egix that I was referring to regarding that you/ivy are an unlikely team.

In this next post, I expounded on the only way I can see you as scum with Ivy. When I got up this morning, I knew that I was going to have to think about Luke because my middle of the night thoughts on Ivy pushed her back townward. I talked about my Luke thoughts before talking about the you/Ivy possibility. And then I listed them in the opposite order. I can see why you think this post is saying that my first "choice" is you/ivy scum, but I think I made it abundantly clear that I don't want to vote Ivy today. She just feels to me like she's playing alone, so that "choice" isn't my first choice at all.

I'm looking a lot harder at Lukewarm because if I'm right about Saudade and I'm right that there isn't an obvious partner for Ivy which decreases her scum equity, then Lukewarm is in the frame. If he's town, then I'm wrong about Ivy.

There's a missing piece of the puzzle if you're trying to figure out my reads. My Demainer townread has degraded and I'm considering him as scum.

Reading through Lukewarm's ISO, every stance and stance change is well telegraphed, and well thought out. And that alone actually pings on a non-surface level. Lukewarm is playing a cautious game. And that may be a personality thing but maybe not.

It reminds me a little of my first mafia game at MS. I drew scum in my first newbie. I had about 4 years of experience playing on other sites with much shorter game days, and I decided to play the game like I was a semi-experienced player who knew the lingo but had sort of naive ideas about scumhunting. My theories were solid (though not very imaginative) and my trajectories were flawlessly telegraphed. And the one big ping anyone mentioned the whole game was about a post I would have made as town without hesitation to deflect attention from an obvious PR. Anyway. That was a strategy I could only use once at MS and it worked great for that one game.

I don't usually look for "too perfect to be real" play in newbie games, but my other reads kind of force this issue.

The other possibility I entertained last night is that Demainer came into day 2 thinking that with 2 town deaths the scum team was somewhat exposed and mega-distancing was called for. This would explain how passive Ivy has been, maybe, if she's being bussed.

So, my theories are: {Demainer, Ivy}, {Demainer, Lukewarm} which leads to me voting Demainer today.

Barring PR data suggesting otherwise, I think Demainer has to be the elim tomorrow if y'all go elsewhere today.

Anyway, other players' posts including yours, since Egix voted me have bumped the order of my individual reads around and that affects who I think can be scum together.

This is where I was at when I made my first post of the day:

Scum (Strong to Weak)
You----Ivy/Luke---Bell

This is where I am at now:

Scum (Strong to Weak)
Luke----Bell/You----Ivy

I have a hard time weighing the Bell/You likelihoods, but I feel like if Luke is scum then one of you is the partner. Your discredits don't exactly endear you to me, but they don't change my read, either. But, your stance outside the discredits, knowing my own alignment suggest you aren't scum with Ivy even more strongly than when I made that comment to Egix yesterday.

Bell is a schrodinger's box. I feel sure I could figure out his alignment with more interaction. Maybe it will happen. :/

Before Ivy's post 464, I wasn't as reluctant to vote her. Now, I'd only vote her to prevent no-elim and I wouldn't be happy about it.

So, my strongest scum team possibilities are {Luke, You}, {Luke, Bell}. If I'm wrong about Saudade's behaviors around scumbuddies, then {Bell, You} is possible, but I feel like that's a lower likelihood. Before Ivy's post 464, I would have put {Ivy, You} as slightly more likely than {Bell, You}. When Luke voted me and you didn't, I feel like that decreased the likelihood of you and Luke being a team. So, my strongest team thought is {Luke, Bell}.

I feel like I'm saying the same thing over and over again with different words. :/

[fferyllt]

fferylt replaces endlessdark. the day will end in (expired on 2021-04-17 12:00:00)

18 hours.

[fferyllt]

My issue is not that you are suspicious of me (although I don't fully understand your logic to do so) but the fact that you paired me with Demainer.

You-Luke - strongest likelihood. Your Ivy vote makes sense and your me-discredits make sense

Using the same logic you used with egix and with Demainer, I know this isn't true because my role pm said otherwise, so you are currently scumreading town.

So either you are scum and making accusations that are not logical because you are trying to manipulate the thread. Or you have some kind of logic that (is wrong) and has not been explained well to the thread.

So if you want me to consider that you might be a mistaken town and not scum, you gotta make your conclusion make some sort of logical sense.

Looking at my iso, starting with post 294 and especially (306 / 325 / 326).

If you think me + Demainer are the most likely pair, why would I have said those things?
Do you think I was bussing him? Why would I need to bus him so early and aggressively?
Do you think I was distancing? Do you think I would be able to walk back posts 325/326 at any point?

Do I think you could back away from this post?

VOTE: demainer eeeewwgh

Seconded

VOTE: demainer

Your first post of day 2? Yes, I do, though I think inexperienced scum would be reluctant to bus like that. It's a strange thing about scum vs town votes. Scum tend to worry about what it will look like if they change their minds. Town just takes in the data, and if the data points them in a different direction, they change direction. I used to describe the difference as being hedgy vs being waffly.

Your vote isn't hedgy, and that's an argument against my solve.

Your 306 was one of the posts I liked as I was catching up. I wasn't scumreading Demainer at that point. I was still in finding townreads mode, so I didn't agree with your reads, but I didn't strongly disagree either when I hit that post.

325 is interesting. Do you really think scum-Demainer would defend his nk choice like that? It would be an odd showing of scum hubris. Does that fit his game persona?

326 - did Demainer respond to this? Looks like Clasko's claim may have made it moot.

Gah. Lemme mull.

If I'm misreading you, then either it's Demainer/Bell or I'm wrong about Ivy.

I don't mind being miselimmed so much given the gamestate, but I want to leave town with a good solve.

[fferyllt]

You - Bell lowest liklihood due to Saudade's

positioning wrt

to you

Can you explain what this means? google's given nothing

wrt is an abbreviation of "with respect to". What I was saying was that Saudade pushing Demainer doesn't fit Saudade's behaviors around his scumbuddies in his recent scum games I looked at. Scum-Saudade goes after town, especially low hanging fruit town and mostly ignores his scumbuddies unless they initiated interaction with him first.

[fferyllt]

But, I don't find ivy/luke a likely pair at all. Feels weird.

What is weird about them?

[fferyllt]

I feel like there's been an implicit goon assumption in your stances.

[fferyllt]

Interactions don't seem rehearsed.

And Ivy's interactions with me DO feel rehearsed?

[fferyllt]

What do you mean?

Ivy/me is your solve, so something about our interactions must look team to you. So, I want to know how my interactions differ in your mind.


Posts that are making me question my Luke-scum read are apparently making you think he could be scum. I want to understand that.

[fferyllt]

who's the second scum, is it bell or ff hmm.............

Why are you not on a team with Ivy?

(Before any complaints, I know it's loaded, it's the whole point)

???

I'm looking a lot harder at Lukewarm because if I'm right about Saudade and I'm right that there isn't an obvious partner for Ivy which decreases her scum equity, then Lukewarm is in the frame. If he's town, then I'm wrong about Ivy.

There's a missing piece of the puzzle if you're trying to figure out my reads. My Demainer townread has degraded and I'm considering him as scum.

Reading through Lukewarm's ISO, every stance and stance change is well telegraphed, and well thought out. And that alone actually pings on a non-surface level. Lukewarm is playing a cautious game. And that may be a personality thing but maybe not.

It reminds me a little of my first mafia game at MS. I drew scum in my first newbie. I had about 4 years of experience playing on other sites with much shorter game days, and I decided to play the game like I was a semi-experienced player who knew the lingo but had sort of naive ideas about scumhunting. My theories were solid (though not very imaginative) and my trajectories were flawlessly telegraphed. And the one big ping anyone mentioned the whole game was about a post I would have made as town without hesitation to deflect attention from an obvious PR. Anyway. That was a strategy I could only use once at MS and it worked great for that one game.

I don't usually look for "too perfect to be real" play in newbie games, but my other reads kind of force this issue.

The other possibility I entertained last night is that Demainer came into day 2 thinking that with 2 town deaths the scum team was somewhat exposed and mega-distancing was called for. This would explain how passive Ivy has been, maybe, if she's being bussed.

So, my theories are: {Demainer, Ivy}, {Demainer, Lukewarm} which leads to me voting Demainer today.

Barring PR data suggesting otherwise, I think Demainer has to be the elim tomorrow if y'all go elsewhere today.

There just has to be a conspiracy for everything.

I'm staying on ivy. ff pushing me and ivy w/w and luke as deepwolf reeks of desperation. It's literally the only way to justify not having ivy as the elim.

My guess is the scum team has a blocker and they can't risk having someone on the team die tonight. Not before they take out clasko.

??????

And you've been sledging me for the last 12 fucking hours, claiming i'm conspiracy theorizing, changing my stances, etc.

[fferyllt]

bellllllllllllllll where art thou

I'm holding out hope that Bell will be able to post tonight. something something pandemic no weekend life. <3

[fferyllt]

Where's my vote? Or at least, where have I said my vote's going to be?

I'm not part of your solve? what the fuck have been doing all day?

[fferyllt]

There's a difference between reconsidering whether someone is scum, and outright claiming someone is a dw in a post that is markedly different from those before, and which clearly carries an agenda instead of genuinely sharing thoughts on things.

Unpack this please.

[fferyllt]

Do you think I was distancing? Do you think I would be able to walk back posts 325/326 at any point?

Do I think you could back away from this post?

VOTE: demainer eeeewwgh

Seconded

VOTE: demainer

Your first post of day 2? Yes, I do, though I think inexperienced scum would be reluctant to bus like that. It's a strange thing about scum vs town votes. Scum tend to worry about what it will look like if they change their minds. Town just takes in the data, and if the data points them in a different direction, they change direction. I used to describe the difference as being hedgy vs being waffly.

Your vote isn't hedgy, and that's an argument against my solve.

I asked if you thought I could walk back posts 325 and 326, you quoted back 294.

I meant this

I'm not buying it. The more I read over all of the messages, and reread them, the more I am convincing myself that it is Demainer + Clasko. So I think it is going to take a power role giving me more information to go off of or a major slip up to change my mind at this point.

VOTE: Demainer

This is where the game state was when I made that post
Egix: Voted Ivy
Demainer: Voted Ivy
Endlessdark: No vote
Clasko: No vote
Ivy: No Vote
Saudede: Voted Demainer, but then had requested to be replaced. So where his replacement would go was uncertain.

Other then me, there was only one person voting against Demainer, and that person was getting ready to leave the game. If I were partnered with Demainer, why would have I have put so much effort in to building a case against him (Posts 325 and 326 if he were my partner? I mean I did a full iso of him, and pointed out

many, many

posts against him. Why would I have bussed him there?

I cannot come up with a reason, therefore I cannot understand your conclusion that me+demainer is the most likely scum pair in your PoV. It makes no sense to me from a town PoV.

But from a scum PoV, you could be trying to get Demainer voted out. He flips scum. You get to say "see I was right" and try to steer the conversation again tomorrow. Or alternatively, you fail to push out Demainer, and YOU get voted out. That leaves Demainer able to claim "see the scum tried really hard to push me out yesterday"

I cannot find a logical way for a town to make the conclusion that you made. I can come up with a logical explanation why a scum would push this particular pair. Therefore, I am left to conclude that you are scum.

I don't care nearly as much about your read of me as I do about reading you correctly.

Part of my problem here is that there's been practically no interaction with other players, aside from Demainer. I mostly form reads via interaction.

Consider my scumread in this light: I'm impressed with your play, and you're basically the only player (aside from maybe egix) that I think could play to this level and yet be scum. It's certainly an uphill battle to push you and if I were scum, my flip would spew you insanely town.

[fferyllt]

Where's my vote? Or at least, where have I said my vote's going to be?

I'm not part of your solve? what the fuck have been doing all day?

Have I or have you?

Sorry. What have you been doing all day? I feel like you've taken exception to every single post I've made, regardless of whether my read of you was moving townward or scumward. And those questions: why aren't I scum with Ivy, especially asking for meta reasons for it. I have about 10 very recent games on site that are here for you to peruse if you are actually interested in my meta.

But there's not time for that kind of meta-dig and I'm not particularly fretting about survival here. Surviving, especially as a problematic slot, which YOU HAVE BEEN PUSHING ALL DAY, isn't necessarily pro-town-wincon.

[fferyllt]

Demainer your tone has changed this evening compared to earlier today. I don't know what to make of that.

There's also a section of day 2 that had a different tone and I'm wondering if the tone changes have something to do with how you perceive other people are reading you.

I felt like you came against me hard during the last 10 hours or so. Aggressive tone, dismissive, even insulting, and I was reading that as comparable to you posts at Wheme. That's part of why I feel like you've been setting me up as a tomorrow-miselim if you can get your Ivy wagon over the line.

Which is part of why I'm perfectly willing to be elimmed today. I feel like my flip, while it doesn't clear Ivy, it will get taken into account that I had a strong enough townread to be semi-self-sacrificing about it.

And I feel like that's a better use of my slot than needlessly soaking up town efforts to resolve me in/before elo.

[fferyllt]

your analysis of end/your interactions

my analysis of endless's interactions is that right or wrong, they are town interactions. Aside from my pre-game iso scan (which was about his tone mostly) and my initial readthrough which was way more focused on other slots than on my own, I'm not wasting time analyzing him. If I'd come into the game to find my slot was voting someone I personally was townreading, I would have dug into the whys, but usually when I disagree with a predecessor, I wind up quite arrogantly going with my own opinion.

As far as my interactions with Ivy, they've been minimal, like with EVERYONE besides you so far, plus a fun but short waltz with Bell. Ivy asks surface questions that mostly appear to be trying to figure out my terminology. Her one post that I've referred a couple times was a reply to me and I'm kinda meh except there were bits I townread.


and oh god I'm going to do another read flip if I keep this up.

[fferyllt]

I don't care nearly as much about your read of me as I do about reading you correctly.

@fferyllt You say this, but you still are ignoring the question I have asked you about how you came to your conclusion. In your mind, how does it make sense for me and demainer to be scum, AND for me to have made post 325 + 326 in the game state that they were made. What is the thought process that you have used to allow those two things to co-exist in your read?

It's certainly an uphill battle to push you and if I were scum, my flip would spew you insanely town.

@everyone I was actually thinking about this, why would fferyllt (as scum) make the pair Me+Demainer?. If I am right, and the team is ff + Demainer, and they were trying to come up with a plan of who to push while bussing demainer, then their options were : [Demainer+Ivy] [Demainer+Bell] [Demainer + me]

Who every is place into the mafia accusation would come across as town once ff flipped scum. I have been widely town read by nearly every player (except Clasko for some reason), but Ivy and Bell have both been discussed as possible scum. So ff could have chosen me so that both Bell and Ivy would be under suspicion moving into Day 3.

Honestly fferyllt, you seem like a good/experienced player. So I analyzed how your play could help lead to a town win (and could not find it) then analyzed how your play could lead to a scum win, and this is the scenario I found:

Spoiler:

Day 2:

2

v

5

You flip scum today, which appears to clear Me + Demainer, leaving Bell and Ivy under suspicion / Night kill
Day 3:

1

v

4

We vote out one of them / Night kill
Day 4:

1

v

2

We vote out the other

Mafia Win

Compared to if you, as scum made the bussing paid Demainer + Bell

Day 2:

2

v

5

You flip scum today, which appears to clear Bell + Demainer, leaving Ivy under suspicion / Night kill
Day 3:

1

v

4

We vote out Ivy / Night kill
Day 4:

1

v

2

Who ever is left out of Clasko/Egix/Me have to reexamine Bell and Demainer

50/50 Town/Mafia win

So if you are scum paired with demainer, accusing Me+Demainer has a logical reason behind it.

Lukewarm, I didn't think so much about who you've pushed as I did about how you went about it, which is pretty much flawlessly measured and commensurate, just as you're pushing me here. And that measured style matches some patterns I've seen in really, really good scum players. And to be fair, they're measured when they're town, too.

Anyway, I'm ending the day thinking there are better ways to spend a night than sleeplessly turning over a game, and doubting my reads.

Put "whilst" in the thread search box at the top of the page and let me know if something catches your eye.

[fferyllt]

I'm sorry, Bell.

Now catch up and decide if you're still voting me.

[fferyllt]

because?

[fferyllt]

Oh, Luke's against it now. Huh.

That's ok. Luke's voting with you so I'm sure ya'll are both good upstanding townies.

[fferyllt]

Put "whilst" in the thread search box at the top of the page and let me know if something catches your eye.

Oh my god. Reading the "whilst" thread made me feel physically sick to my stomach. I am going to pretend I did not read it, because the only way my brain wants to interpret it would mean that Clasko is scum, and our real town power role just did not counter claim him. I don't see a way that I can productively work towards a win if thats the case, so I am just going to ignore it, but I am actually nauseous right now. The worst possible outcome of this game would be for us to lose because our actual PR just didn't counter claim a scum


I am actually amazed that you were able to catch the weirdness of its usage while just reading through. That is mighty impressive.

Everyone else, for your own sanity, I would recommend you not actually search the thread for "whilst" lol

Sounds like you didn't see the thing that made me curious. And in fact the Clasko uses didn't stand out to me because I think his posting times fit a time zone where "whilst" is much more common than mine.

Ivy's apparent timezone kinda fits too.

Demainer's apparent timezone possibilities doesn't appear to, but they only use the word once, I think. Maybe the sprinklings of whilst in this game are contagious? I sometimes temporarily pick up words I don't usually use due to people using them around me.

[fferyllt]

Anyway, I got all nervous about a whilsty scum PT when I saw that one whilst sitting there so lonely in the iso.

When I go tinfoil I go tinfoil.

[fferyllt]

The human brain is real dumb on pattern recognition. That's my take on this topic. Please bury it.

A skew toward false positives is pro survival in the land of tooth and claw.

[fferyllt]

I'm interested to know what apparent timezone I'm in.

Your early-day posts fit US Eastern and your late night posts would make you a slight bit of a nightowl if that's your timezone. Personal habits/jobs/etc can skew things.

I sometimes do multi-timezone meetings that unfortunately require me to be awake and coherent at 1 or 2 in the ayem my time.

[fferyllt]

And I think finding out that I'm town before elo is pro-town-wincon, so I'm not against being miselimed.

[fferyllt]

strange bedfellows, though.

[fferyllt]

If I'm wrong about Ivy being town I'm going to feel terrible.

[fferyllt]

There is a grammatical rule or maybe it's like pirate's parlay -- more of a guideline -- about when to use while vs whilst where whilst is common. I can use the word properly (most of the time, I think), though I couldn't articulate the rule for love or money.

[fferyllt]

Bell you're right that I"m in hyper vigilant mode now, but I am soooooooo short on sleep that vigilance =/= coherence. I'm hoping the cycle breaks tonight but if it continues my logic is going to suffer outrageously.

I wouldn't weigh the possibility of me performing late game miracles too heavily into the pros/cons.

[fferyllt]

because I was fairly inclined to town bin Luke

So was I.

I really wonder if there's anything that isn't garbage that I've ginned up about this game in the last 12 hours.

I'm hopeful about your alignment.

[fferyllt]

Same, but I'm not hyper vigilant because I didn't roll scum this game.

Different kind of vigilance.

[fferyllt]

And I think finding out that I'm town before elo is pro-town-wincon, so I'm not against being miselimed.

If you really are town, why are you avoiding answering my questions when I have been asked you to explain your read?

If I were scum with demainer, why would I have made posts 325 and 326 in the game state that those posts were made? If you cannot explain it, doesn't that break the me+demainer pair? You keep saying that you are going to flip town, and then we should look at your reads. If that is what is going to happen, shouldn't you work through the apparent contradiction here?


Of course me asking you this this many times will mean nothing when you flip scum

I've told you that those posts had nothing to do with the pattern that flashed regarding your game presence as a whole.

Or I've tried to tell you. I didn't take those posts into account. Looking at them they make me question the whole pattern, and some of them are precisely why my initial read of you was town.

Without the twin pillars of Egix and Clasko town along with a sense that Ivy is alone and kinda lost in the game, I doubt I would have considered the possibility of you scum. There's still the possibility of Saudade/You being partners but I feel too exhausted to get my head around how that would work right now.

I can't hold onto a Demeaner/you team in the face of the posts. I hope the whole pattern i thing is a false positive and I don't want to be around dealing with paranoia flashes about you later in the game.

[fferyllt]

Bell, who could be scum with Demainer?

[fferyllt]

Egix lives in the whilst timezone. He may post in 7 or so hours?

[fferyllt]

maybe a little sooner since the deadline looms.

[fferyllt]

If I die Clasko did it.

Get FF.
She has ants in her pants.
Do it before I change my mind.

FGO Game should tell me otherwise, but I'm just not processing that you're scumreading me.

I have to answer this question: would town-you see scum agenda in my chaos of a game presence? Are my thoughts about Saudade's interactions with Demainer solid enough to take a leap of faith that you're town when your own play lacks a certain adorability?

If you're scum, is your LHF-ish defense of Ivy partnery?

this game.

I want to leave it with a solve.

[fferyllt]

I really wanted to hear from Clasko and Egix before I went to bed, so I had time to respond to them / mull over their comments before the final hour of Day 2

Why did our confirmed town PR and the person they cleared have to be two of the least active players on the thread

Ugh... do I stay awake for 30 more minutes after all?

timezone guess crushed.

[fferyllt]

I'm going to go to sleep. If this ends before I wake up, then my stake in the ground is Ivy-town.

I don't trust Bell even though I want to. I do trust Luke even though I don't want to.

I can't quite see Demainer as scum with either of them but purely on their play I can't emphatically townread Demainer.

I wish I were leaving something more confident. If I get back before hammer, maybe I will.

pedit Bell your cuteness nearly won me over but my POE teams make no sense without you in them.

If you're town and we're misreading each other that's a bigger tragedy than Illicit because we have a lot more recent history. I hoped would be the last game where I acquiesced to a miselim ever. The rather bright silver lining to that game is that town won without my endorsement of town-you.

Even when I don't trust the process, there's nothing else to trust at times like this. :/

[fferyllt]

I had a brainstorm about how to proceed on day 3 so I'm back up and typing for a bit. I'm probably giving advice to Egix, who hardly needs it, but maybe things play out unexpectedly.

There are 2 scum in Lukewarm, Bell and Demainer with an outside chance that I'm wrong and Ivy is scum.

Make these 4, especially the first three, scumhunt each other without much input from whoever survives tonight. Don't give them early clues about where you want to vote. Make them take sides and gang up without your input. You may see some team-signs in all that that aren't visible enough right now. And beware of players buddying you.

Regardless of the setup, there will probably be a fake claim tomorrow. Treat claims and counterclaims with skepticism.

Good hunting!

[fferyllt]

no oar for you, bell.

if you're town I'm too exasperated to feel sorry for you. you were there for my descent in illicit. the difference here is that I haven't poured my heart into the game for months. I'm not taking miselim personally.

[fferyllt]

the annoyance though, that you'll happily vote me and then skip out on the just consequences of having to fight back from it.

oh wait. this is designed to shake you. oops.

I was looking forward to watching it. :/

sorry life is too busy right now.

[fferyllt]

Ffery, if you are town and you successfully got me to reconsider you, then good on you.
But I feel like you're gonna end up being mis yeeted anyway and that I'm powerless to stop it.
The team is probably Demain and... Bell?? I'm not confident enoughhhh

one solid town read or even two doesn't take my slot far enough away from the elo cliff to make me feel like I wouldn't be a liability for town going forward. and I'm not coming down to the wire with a bet the farm scum read.

surviving today and another townie being miselimmed would be terrible for town.

I can't completely contain the salt, though!

if you found town me in this mess then good on [

you

.

[fferyllt]

Ffery, if you are town and you successfully got me to reconsider you, then good on you.
But I feel like you're gonna end up being mis yeeted anyway and that I'm powerless to stop it.
The team is probably Demain and... Bell?? I'm not confident enoughhhh

not sold on this pair as a team, but maybe?

[fferyllt]

Oh, I really am scum reading her. The field is incredibly narrow and I think she'd have town binned me by now if she was town. I find her play incredibly postury, her every move spelled out, AtE's that seem designed to shake me etc.. I also think she seems to be vacillating based on whether it looks like I'm scum reading her or not. Also, while I'm aware of the irony of it, replace outs tend to more likely be scum than town.

Please, please, please don't ask me to reference where I drew these conclusions come from, I don't have time for that.
Also I could totally be wrong and this could be one of those ultimate derps I sometimes do. I'm very tempted to try to talk it out and leave her alone, but I realize that's just nepotism and I'm not really interested in a rerun of Cabd calling me scum while I defend without striking back until it's too late.

Part of me wants to take this apart piece by piece and really try to meet minds with you in these last few hours. It would be nice to end the day with a solid read of you. :/

So I'm going to suspend doubt and talk to you like you're town-Bell misreading me.

Your characterization of my play, once again, I can squint and see town you thinking at least some of these things and feel really disappointed that you're not better at reading me than this and I'm not better at reading you than this.

When I find town you in a game it's so solid usually.

You're comparing me here to Cabd in Tenet but I also scumread you quite sincerely in that game for a really long time. Yeah, I was heavily pocketed by him, but he didn't shape that read, he planted the suggestion and then I ran with it.

Pirate Mollie used to scum read my play because, as she described it, instead of playing ball, I would take the ball, and she believed scum do that more than town. She figured out that wasn't an accurate channel of behavior for reading me after a few games, because I do it quite emphatically as town sometimes, intentionally or not. more like usually in back then. my playstyle isn't as aggressive now.

I feel like it's those aspects of my play that you're using to base your read here, at least partially. I perceive myself as wearing my heart on my sleeve and being transparent about how I'm processing the game and how the game is affecting me. When I'm town and under pressure I feel like that transparency is the best response. You perceive that as AtE and manipulation. One one level that means you are picking up and processing what I'm putting into the game, but on another level it means you're misinterpreting WHY I'm putting that stuff into the game in the first place, even though you have seen me do this in other games. Specifically in Illicit and in Tenet when LLD pushed me way off balance.

Emotional content is part of my scum game, too. but there are differences and I'm not going to enumerate them because meta arms races are a thing.

I think that take the ball mindset, which mathblade has in spades as any alignment, is part of why you scumread him in WH13 (and part of why I get so annoyed with him in the games I've played with him). He was extremely frustrated that LLD had total control of the ball and was working around that as hard as he could to manipulate the game in a direction he wanted. he does it as both alignments so I have to figure out the alignment another way.

To the extent I'm trying to control the ball in this game, I'm controlling it toward my elim, but mostly I'm just letting the miselim happen. I can't completely leash my self preservation tendencies, hence the salt, but I don't believe surviving today benefits town. And I am nothing as a mafia player if not a creature in service to wincon.

I am vacillating on your alignment and it comes from waves of doubt that you can actually be misreading me this badly if you're town, which wash against waves of awareness about my own play and against my wanting you to be town and worrying that that want is blinding me. Your concern about "nepotism" is similar. I wouldn't give a player I don't know as well and I don't think should be able to read me as hard a time as I want to give you, but I also worry that I'm setting the bar too low because I do really really want you to be town.

But mostly I want to be right about you and give town a reliable read for tomorrow. And if I can't do that, then I can't. :/

Anyway. The meta river rolls on and both our alignments will become public knowledge and this game will become part of the lenses we view each other through in games and if you're town maybe I won't misjudge this sort of non-mesh in the future.

It's really jarring coming off a game where we actually townblocked, though.

[fferyllt]

I do usually form my reads of you based on how you're reading the game.

Here, I felt like you came to that reads list where you sorted players by effort rather than by your thoughts on their alignment as both premature (your 3rd post and right after you replaced in) and unfinished. You left and didn't come back for over a day, and when you did, you didn't really convert that effort continuum to reads.

Things I think we agree on: Ivy's probably town. And if you're town, then Demainer's probably scum.

Assuming you're town, I'm in your second scum slot so you're not thinking hard about Luke. That's going to change INSTANTLY when you see my flip, and you're going to be stuck between figuring him vs Ivy as second scum.

I really hope PR activity solves that quandary, or the quandary that you are going to present to town tomorrow. If there's no outside data for that solve then things are going to get really messy and I'll be biting my nails in the dead thread.

[fferyllt]

Ffery, if you are town and you successfully got me to reconsider you, then good on you.
But I feel like you're gonna end up being mis yeeted anyway and that I'm powerless to stop it.
The team is probably Demain and... Bell?? I'm not confident enoughhhh

one solid town read or even two doesn't take my slot far enough away from the elo cliff to make me feel like I wouldn't be a liability for town going forward. and I'm not coming down to the wire with a bet the farm scum read.

surviving today and another townie being miselimmed would be terrible for town.

I can't completely contain the salt, though!

if you found town me in this mess then good on [

you

.

I can't really say I agree - sometimes you have to make a swing for the fences because it's the only way to win.

If I felt confident that a not-me elim would be a scum-elim I'd swing with all I've got. If I had more than 48 hours worth of data in the thread to be judged on, I'd also be a lot more feisty about being misread. But, this game was so inactive before I joined there's just not a lot of data, and one of the key slots for me to judge is also a replacement. I thought Bell would be a quick, accurate mutual sort because of a lot of recent history.

I've played with scum-Bell and I feel like his play here is in his town range but his misread of me is really troubling and I'm probably letting that cloud my read too much.

He's never played with scum-me but he's heard about a recent scum game I won. I was successful in that game in bringing a much wider range of emotional reactions to the gamestate than I've ever done before as scum. And I think I was very good at filtering out the scum-oriented emotional reactions and channeling how I'd feel as town instead. And the consequence of that is that players in that game, and probably players like Bell who hear the postgame chatter, are overlooking that the improvement in my scum game there was that I wasn't emotionally flat, but made a better sumulacrum of my town behavior. There were several players in the game who know me well, and it was that emotional range that I think made the difference in a couple of key moments of the game. So now, emotional range is being interpreted as a scum marker rather than a town-marker I've managed at least once to import into my scum game. I've made something that was very AI for me ambiguous. It's an overreaction to assume that rather than ambiguous emotional range is scum-indicative for me now.

[fferyllt]

demainer and

That's the tough one.

Lukewarm.

[fferyllt]

interesting. I expected to see you move your vote.

[fferyllt]

you can't hammer me!

[fferyllt]

how does my town flip clear demainer?

it better not clear them.

[fferyllt]

Well from clasko / egix / ivy's PoV, it should be narrowed down to me+bell

From my PoV, if you flip town my brain will break.

If you're town your brain is going to break.

I wouldn't remove Demainer from the scumpile with my townflip. Their play has issues.

[fferyllt]

This is hypocritical of the non-voter in the crowd, but Clasko and Demainer need to think hard about their life choices.

And I warn the entire player list that if the deadline is upon us and you've forced me to choose between self-hammering and hammering a scumread I will be extremely put out.

[fferyllt]

sigh.

[fferyllt]

this game is cursed.

[fferyllt]

Demainer's second choice is me and there's not going to be an Ivy elim.

fatalism is contagious I guess. If he's town, I kinda respect his principles even though I don't like how they play out here.

[fferyllt]

If I'm alive tomorrow, there will be no fatalism.

Consider that carefully regardless of your alignment. Town me is a pain to miselim.

[fferyllt]

I mean, look at this crap. I'm not even fighting.

Make no mistake. I will fight at elo.

[fferyllt]

He logged off....

He really did log on right before the dead line, make the most anti-town possible post, and then leave.

VOTE: Demainer

I am still willing to hammer ff if other people gravitate towards that wagon, but I am honestly done with Demainer in this game lol

He has his online status hidden. He may or may not have logged off.

In a new player, I kinda see turning that off as scum-indicative. Old hacks like me turned it off years ago because profile-watchers are annoying in games.

[fferyllt]

Town me is a pain to miselim.

How can you say that when earlier you were seemingly fine with it happening??

I was referring to trying to miselim me in elo.

But, I seem to be damn hard to elim here despite being fine with it.

[fferyllt]

The only person I'm annoyed at for misreading me is Bell. The rest of you have no idea how idiosyncratic my play is/can be.

[fferyllt]

In a new player, I kinda see turning that off as scum-indicative.

I thought it was just the norm.

It betrays a paranoid mindset, I think. Which isn't limited to scum, but newbish scum kinda have more reason to feel hunted, and experienced scum have probably encountered profile watchers.

[fferyllt]

the lack of twilight chat is killing me.

[fferyllt]

same. I want to know if my day 3 is going to be hell on wheels, or just hell.

[fferyllt]

We are at 3-2 ELO. I think everyone still in the game knows what that means, but just in case: If one town player puts down a vote on another town player, then the 2 scum players can win the game by also voting that town player.

If you are town, please hold off voting until everyone you think is town feels ready to end the day.

I've got some posts I worked on during the night phase incoming...

[fferyllt]

I half expected Ivy to be the night kill today.

I had the feeling that they would Roleblock Clasko, and kill Ivy (because everyone had her on her clear list) and Clasko was a bit suspicious of me through out Day 2, so he seemed like a decent choice to keep a live in hopes to get a town vote onto me.

I expected it to be either Ivy or Clasko.

[fferyllt]

I believe the scumteam is Bell/Lukewarm

This post is mostly about Bell. It's long and I'm not really sure how coherent it is, but I did my insomnia-fueled best yesterday.

I'm about 99.9% sure of Bell. The probability of Ivy-scum with Bell is incredibly low. The anti-team feels I have about Lukewarm/Ivy aren't as strong, but my feelings about Ivy's play are that she just doesn't feel like someone who has a partner. She's been under suspicion by one player or another for a lot of the game and she just feels like she's facing that alone and somewhat bewildered. And that bewilderment has generated townreads of various strengths.

Bell/Saudade Case

- Saudade's scum-partner behaviors have been predictive for finding not-partners: Whemestar, Demainer, and I'm going to continue to put a whole lot of stock in the idea that it also predicts that Ivy is not a partner. He doesn't go after his partners.

I think Bell/my interactions should be obviously anti-partner regardless of how anyone reads me, but there is also some anti-partner interactions from Saudade toward Endless that I'll call out:

130 Saudade "uuuuhs" a post from Endless that interprets Ivy's early play as inexperienced town. Saudade was voting Ivy at that point.

131 he "good vote"'s Whemestar's Endless vote.


Saudade/Lukewarm interactions.

157 is a bit of a wtf because just 1 page earlier he said "wtf u strong townreading someone on page 4 for"

162 look at all the known town in that post. Ordinarily I'd look at that and wonder which one of the 4 is scum, but given his tendency to mostly (but not completely) ignore scum partners, this doesn't raise an Ivy flag at all.

163 is the kind of mention I expect with most scum, though Saudade tends to minimize it from what I've seen.

Saudade also looks like a really good candidate for night killing Ahri.

I won't cite them all, but it's clear from his posts to her that he is familiar with her outside this game. He's a veteran of Epic Mafia. I'm not 100% certain that Ahri is (Maybe I'll look at her previous games and see if she mentions EM), but her playstyle certainly fits that mold. He may have been concerned that if Ahri got more engaged on day 2 (or if he thought she was a PR who was keeping a low profile on day 1), she'd figure out he's scum. Maybe that wasn't as much of a low-info kill as Demainer thought!

Moving on to Bell.

I like Bell as a person and as a player, and for that reason (along with my own very regrettable fatalism) I kept cutting him slack during my short sojourn in Day 2. PARTICULARLY in terms of his participation level because of his new job/newness at the job. Even without the level of involvement that I usually expect from town-Bell, there are other things that are missing in his play here. The things that I associate with town-Bell are

WIM (want it more) - he self-characterizes his town game this way. He has a drive to win as town that he lacks as scum and it shows in his curiosity, his digging, and his skepticism. Getting a townread from town-Bell isn't easy. Even though the percentage of scum in most games is going to be low, he may not townread even 50% of the players, and he may only have 2-3 strong townreads in a game with 14-20 players.

His scum game by comparison is lower-energy and kinda OMGUSY, though he also OMGUSes about suspicion as town, especially from someone he's not townreading.

When I voted him on Day 2, his next post was to vote me. It clanged, but not as hard as it probably should have because of his tendency to bite back as town, too.

The game I played with scum-Bell last year is here: viewtopic.php?f=56&t=84560. If you look at his iso, the content/non-content ratio is kinda heavy on the non-content. I have to say, this game is an improvement in the content area. In the Tenet game, I said that I thought he was due for a break-out scum game and I think this game may be it, though the circumstance: replace-in, only one player (who happened to want to die on day 2) who knows his play all that well. Even with the POE yesterday putting him in the frame, I was making excuses for him mentally, and really went out of my way to see the potential for him to be town, despite his extremely harsh approach to me. (from my perspective, having a great fondness for <adorable Bell is town Bell>)

I'm trying to think how to put this. Compared to the town-bell I know, who is quixotic and says things in a sort of backwards way sometimes to how I think about stuff, who's paranoid, who can get stuck in tunnels, and who tries really hard to town it up immediately so that he gets read as town and doesn't have to fight people about his alignment, this is different. It's pushier, but at the same time it's not as deep. And his focus has mostly been on me -- not to sort me -- to push me.

I feel kinda stupid for giving him so much slack. I did the same thing in the smokefilled antechanber game I linked, to the point where I was actively trying to prevent his elim until I felt like I had a better handle on his play because I thought real life was interfering with his time and his focus.

He hasn't jumped on stuff I've said and questioned me about it. He's mostly just characterized posts I made as scummy. Like saying that my first post was trying to manipulate egix.

This is going to be a small side trip. The reason I made that post to egix, pushing back at his scumread of my slot and challenging him to actually read my play, was because egix is the only player here besides Bell who has played with me, and in that Newbie game I replaced into his scum-partner's slot. The difference in my approach here vs there is almost night and day and I thought egix would be able to see it if he reevaluated my slot. It was a very different gamestate in that game, too, but if anything my entry point into that game was much weaker. A strong, loud player had been calling my slot scum since the start of day 2 and didn't let up in the slightest when I replaced in.

egix should remember that in that newbie game, I really didn't want to state reads, and basically just proclaimed a few players town and refused to say which of the remainder I thought were scum. I "efforted" some replace-in catchup posts and "efforted" some meta towncases (they actually involved a lot of effort -- mostly to carefully pick and choose what to highlight and what to gloss over

And I actively saved the player who was pushing me the hardest from miselim who was pushing me the hardest. He had a semi-guilty jailkeeper result on my slot (which DAYUM I wish I'd realized), though. he would have outed his night action if he'd been around when the miselim happened which would have been disastrous, too. My slot basically wasn't salvagable, though I tried and I did my best to help set egix up for the late game win. I don't think he really needed my help, though!

Anyway, egix was my partner, and he was one of the players I did a full meta dive on and he knows that I'm fairly methodical as scum. I was anything but methodical here on day 2.

Writing this, I'm not even sure egix is still townreading me, and if he's not, or if he's dead, then this game is probably a scum win anyway but I WILL go down fighting.

I'll probably have a lot more to say about Bell as this day gets going, but this is a fairly decent explanation of why I'm scumreading him and won't be changing my mind barring something earthshattering on the PR front.

Here are a couple of Bell-town games for comparison purposes if you're interested and/or motivated enough to skim them. They are also me-town games.

FGO: Mafia in the Lostbelt Large Theme Game.

This was an anonymous game where every player was assigned a new account by the game mod. If you accidentally posted from your main account you were forced replaced. Fortunately that only happened to a couple players. Bell and I were both town.

Bell was Servant Avenger and I was Servant Alter Ego. This was my first game back on site after at ~2 year hiatus. It took a bit to settle in after being away, and I was also being careful not to post stuff that was recognizably me from two years ago. The game mod (and the game theme) pulled several players out of retirement, which was a lot of fun! I wound up townreading Bell/Avenger. He always maintained some suspicion of me. In this game you can see that in a 14 player game where it was known that there were 4 mafia players, he maintained suspicion of 6 (sometimes more?) throughout his time in the game. And you can see how he questioned me and scumhunted for evidence of lies or subterfuge rather than simply declaring the evidence was there without really engaging.

Bell's ISO: viewtopic.php?p=12090080&user_select%5B ... #p12090080

My ISO viewtopic.php?p=12089984&user_select%5B ... #p12089984

Mini 2167: Illicit Substances Mafia

In this game, Bell and I were both town. I was playing in the hydra

morph the cat

(two players sharing a user account and both posting using it. We didn't sign our posts so it may be difficult to figure out which posts were mine. When I felt like it was important to know that I was making a post, I usually made it obvious by speaking about my partner ("Cabd", "neuter-half", usually). This game is a great example of how Bell has a really strong focus toward winning the game as town. He refers to it as "WIM" meaning want it more. We townread each other for most of the game. Another player, zMuffinman, came up with an autowin strategy for the game on Day 4. I was skeptical and reluctant to go along with the strategy, since it meant elimming some town reads (and my hydra) along the way. I was salty and paranoid that the assumptions of the autowin strategy might be wrong, but I trusted the plan and didn't fight the elim when it was my turn, the day before we thought it would be ELO (Miselim and Lose) with 2 town and 1 scum remaining.

If you're interested, you can read how I tend to behave in a situation where I, however reluctantly, believe town's chances of winning are better if I am elimmed.

But, more importantly, focus on how town-Bell scumhunts and how he treats fellow-players whose scum game he respects, and compare that to how he treated me on Day 2 here.

If you want to see my recent scum games, I'm happy to share them. let me know and I'll link them. But, Bell and Luke need to do their own legwork to scumcase me. I'll sit back and shoot down the stuff that is wrong or misleading, and there will be no questions in my mind today about whether town-Bell would actually believe the kinds of stuff he wrote about me on Day 2.

In another game where Bell and I were both town, I initially townread him, then scumread him and then eventually with a lot of difficulty came back to a townread. He mentioned that game in a post yesterday, comparing my play here to Cabd's scum play of going after Bell and trying to get him elimmed in that game. And I mentioned that I also scumread Bell in that game for a (long) while. I made a post in that game:

Subject: revO emaG - TENET

I feel like Bell's due for a quantum jump. He's diligent and he has to be getting tired of getting rolled over as scum.

notsci's game has matured, but he's also shown tendencies to fall back into old habits.

It's the self-righteous anger (and paranoia!) that are striking me as town.

yeah, yeah, I know.

Deacon Blues is my hydra with another player, borkjerfkin.

This game we're playing doesn't look like as huge a jump as I've been fearing Bell's going to eventually make, but while I see some of his scum-markers here, I also see improvement from the Smokefilled game where he was scum. I'm really curious to see if he's able to keep it up today. It won't work on me. Demainer's flip and Ivy's steady candle of townieness mean there's no real chance that he's town here.

Next wall will be about Lukewarm.

[fferyllt]

Lukewarm

After the pit of my stomach turned to ice when I saw demainer's flip. I went for a bike ride and just thought about the game without being able to look at it. Demainer's flip made me feel very sure of the scum team: Bell/Luke. I thought about how I'd had a sense that Luke's play was just too...clean. Every stance shift was well paced, well thought out, and well-expressed. But there were two places where something unexpected happened. First, one of his top scum reads, choice for a push on day 2, Clasko outed as Cop with an innocent result.

Here's the progression:

Subject: newbie 2060: creatures, night 2

Okay, I read the thread back from the beginning, and here are my reads for everyone in the game, in order from most maf lean to most town lean. I was honestly really back and forth on which to place at the top between these two, so I will say they are tied at the top.

Scum leans:
Clasko / Demainer

Neutral reads, could go either way:
Ivyeo
Saudade

Town lean:
Endlessdark

Strong town lean:
Egix96

Me (obviously lol)

Subject: newbie 2060: creatures, night 2

Clasko: I went into the D1 flip thinking he was lockscum, but now I've re-iso'd him he comes off as town. It's only a lean though. His "slip" on me and Wheme does not read scum to me now, and his D2 activity has been giving me good vibes as well, I see someone trying to figure things out rather than trying to force town into a conclusion.

Which post was the "slip"? I thought I would notice it when I finished re-reading, but I didn't.

He was probably referencing 86 where Clasko town read both wheme and demainer, something that I pointed out did not make sense to me (he has later tried to clear this up). During Day 1, it seemed like Clasko was using faulty logic to clear both Wheme and Demainer, which in turn made me suspicious that he was covering for his partner. From my pov, it can still be that Clasko was trying to cover for Demainer.

But from Demainer's point of view he would have no reason to be suspicious of Clasko for clearing both of them, because he would now know that both were clear after Wheme flipped town.

And then here's his reaction to Clasko's scumread and claim.

Subject: newbie 2060: creatures, night 2

Luke

- I'm getting very bad vibes from this man. I don't see someone who is weighing all of the options of who Mafia is at all, and is instead just going all-out on Demainer. Admittedly he has reason to, some of which I agree with and some I do not, and whilst I liked the fact he made a read list, this was counter-balanced by not giving reasonings for any of the placements, outside of the top two, which he has explained elsewhere. His gameplay is good (driving forward, reviving a sluggish game), but I'm going to err on the side of him being a good mafia player who happened to roll Mafia here:

VOTE: Lukewarm

I would not say that I have been tunneling on Demainer, at least not until recently lol. Day 1, I was juggling a lot of suspicions. But since Day2 has started, the conversation has been largely dead and I have read, and re-read, and re-read the Day 1 chat. And he is my strongest read by far, with multiple posts that felt anti-town. I'd even like to point you to my statement here:

So I think it is going to take a power role giving me more information to go off of or a major slip up to change my mind at this point]

The chat was dead, and I had read all of the messages many times over, and I felt like there was nothing else for me to gain from re-reading anymore. So it was gonna take some new info for me to do anything else lol.

But luckily, we just got some new info to work with!

I am a Town Cop - I investigated Egix96 last night, and he is confirmed Town. Dunno if this is the correct play, but here we are.
Two possible Mafia in these five, provided I don't get CC'd:

This changes everything on how I would approach the game moving forward!

So the first thing we need to do is see if anyone is gonna counter claim. And remember, there is a limited combination of abilities in this set up. The only way Clasko can be a cop is if we are in a Cop+Doctor or a Solo Cop set up.

So if you have any power other then Doctor (Cop, Jailkeeper, Tracker, Friendly Neighbor, or a Mason) then you can counter claim against him. If you are a Doctor, please do not reveal yourself.

The "lol's" and exlamation marks feel kinda overdone? I dunno I'm not sure I'm reading the emotion right. But it feels like his applecart got overset and he's trying to look excited and helpful.

And the second place where I felt like he was reacting to something unexpected was when I put him out there as a scumread.

Subject: newbie 2060: creatures, night 2

VOTE: fferyllt

They have posted so much information/analysis, and then their final conclusion was

So, my theories are: {Demainer, Ivy}, {Demainer, Lukewarm} which leads to me voting Demainer today.

Which I honestly cannot understand how a town could come to either one of those final conclusions. Either way, you have to assume that one of the scum players came into day 2 ready to bus their partner for no reason. Either Demainer bussing Ivy or me bussing Demainer. Your final pairs make 0 sense to me as town, so I am therefore left to assume that you are scum who was put into a hard position (you replaced into a slot that was already under fire from a confirmed town).

you're a small but significant part of my feeling that miseliming me today is better for town than me being alive,

This also feels to me like an attempt to reverse phycology the group into not killing you, but I actually agree with this sentence.

Even if we are wrong (although I don't think we are), I think that sets us up to win (referring back to my post 364

What jumps out here is that Luke isn't arguing that he isn't scum. He's arguing that he can't be scum with Demainer. And lo and behold...

he's not scum with Demainer

.

This was pointed out to me as one of my scum markers a few years ago. I prefer not to lie, so I phrase arguments and cases and counterarguments as scum so I minimize false statements. And I think that's what Luke is doing here. He attacks me on the wrong part -- that he could be scum with Demainer, not the part that I kept reiterating over and over -- that the carefulness of his stance building results in a body work that looks a little too clean to be for real. There are no quick turnarounds except when forced by a sudden shift in the gamestate.

Moving along.

first off, I don't feel like my posts that morning were all that analytical. I was majorly sleep deprived, was trying to regurgitate the thought trains that just wouldn't stop and kept me awake the night after I replaced in. and I felt like I was having a hard time getting my thoughts across because Demainer didn't seem to get what I was trying to say at all.

Stuff I didn't like: calling my fatalism reverse psychology. I'm torn between being pissed off that you guys didn't vote me out yesterday and thinking that maybe I"ll be able to do a better job today at casing and hopefully convincing the rest of town that the scum team is Bell and Luke than Demainer would have been able to do. No offense at all intended to Demainer. This is a really, really tough situation for town and although I intend to leave no stone unturned, the realist in me thinks the effort is going to be all for naught. But damned if I'm going to just roll over and let scum-Bell win this without a fight.

Anyway, that was about as far from reverse psychology as I'm capable of. I was hoping not to have to self-vote at the last minute to even get an elim across the line.

The comment about being in a slot under fire from confirmed town is part of why I decided to just do what I could on Day 2 and eat the elim if that's how it turned out. As the hours ticked down, egix's read actually softened, but scum came out in force, though fortunately(?) not both in the game thread during the last few hours of the day.

The Demainer miselim happened with one scum vote and 3 town IMO.

Anyway, Luke's arguments starting here and going through the rest of his later posts to/about me really stood out while I was biking. He hadn't argued that my scumread was wrong.

He argued that I was wrong that he's scum with Demainer. And lo and behold, he is not. My initial case was wrong.

But, my reasons for scumreading him were this:

Subject: newbie 2060: creatures, night 2

I'm looking a lot harder at Lukewarm because if I'm right about Saudade and I'm right that there isn't an obvious partner for Ivy which decreases her scum equity, then Lukewarm is in the frame. If he's town, then I'm wrong about Ivy.

There's a missing piece of the puzzle if you're trying to figure out my reads. My Demainer townread has degraded and I'm considering him as scum.

Reading through Lukewarm's ISO, every stance and stance change is well telegraphed, and well thought out. And that alone actually pings on a non-surface level. Lukewarm is playing a cautious game. And that may be a personality thing but maybe not.

It reminds me a little of my first mafia game at MS. I drew scum in my first newbie. I had about 4 years of experience playing on other sites with much shorter game days, and I decided to play the game like I was a semi-experienced player who knew the lingo but had sort of naive ideas about scumhunting. My theories were solid (though not very imaginative) and my trajectories were flawlessly telegraphed. And the one big ping anyone mentioned the whole game was about a post I would have made as town without hesitation to deflect attention from an obvious PR. Anyway. That was a strategy I could only use once at MS and it worked great for that one game.

I don't usually look for "too perfect to be real" play in newbie games, but my other reads kind of force this issue.

The other possibility I entertained last night is that Demainer came into day 2 thinking that with 2 town deaths the scum team was somewhat exposed and mega-distancing was called for. This would explain how passive Ivy has been, maybe, if she's being bussed.

So, my theories are: {Demainer, Ivy}, {Demainer, Lukewarm} which leads to me voting Demainer today.

Barring PR data suggesting otherwise, I think Demainer has to be the elim tomorrow if y'all go elsewhere today.

Subject: newbie 2060: creatures, night 2

I'm not going to be awake much longer tonight. Tomorrow I'll be able to spend most of the day on it and I want as much of the available time till deadline as possible to work on this.

Please, no early hammers. I'll just go ahead and call it a scumclaim if someone prevents my finalized reads from hitting the thread before this day ends.

My insomnia brain worked overtime last night, so I don't feel like I have much more to say about what's transpired in the game. I did some thread data checks to see if I could poke holes in my theories this morning, but that's basically done. Although my reads could change based on what hits the thread going forward, don't feel like you have to wait on more catch up from me at this point.

Egix, in terms of your deep wolf scruples, if you want to see where my theory thoughts come from, you can read my wiki Terms of Art regarding trajectory analysis. It's kind of a corollary of the last paragraph of that section. Lukewarm's play borders on that. And like I said, I probably wouldn't go there if I felt there were good candidates for Ivy partners. Demainer's the only possible candidate to me, and that's not a slam-dunk.

I feel like the gamestate leads to my slot as the likeliest candidate for an Ivy partner, but my role PM says nope. If Ivy's flipped and is town, I don't think that clears me to the extent that my flip could clear Ivy, and that's the source of some extremely unwelcome fatalism on my part. If Ivy is town and she's flipped today, I feel like I'm still a strong miselim candidate for tomorrow at elo.

On the other hand, if I'm flipped then my reads become confirmed town reads and I hope that town players would give them some serious weight on day 3.

Egix unvoting me (at least for now) changes the calculus somewhat, but I'm not convinced it's a good thing^tm for town if I'm alive on day 3.

fatalism is a terrible drug, kids. don't do it.

In other words, I wasn't considering Lukewarm's interactions with Demainer at all. He was in the frame because no reasons for scumreading Ivy really hold water for me.

My mistake was in all the slack I gave Bell for misreading me when he's an MS player who has very little excuse for getting the read wrong.

And yet he kept hammering that point that I had to be scum for positing a Luke/Demainer scumteam.

I eventually posted this:


Subject: newbie 2060: creatures, night 2

I don't care nearly as much about your read of me as I do about reading you correctly.

@fferyllt You say this, but you still are ignoring the question I have asked you about how you came to your conclusion. In your mind, how does it make sense for me and demainer to be scum, AND for me to have made post 325 + 326 in the game state that they were made. What is the thought process that you have used to allow those two things to co-exist in your read?

It's certainly an uphill battle to push you and if I were scum, my flip would spew you insanely town.

@everyone I was actually thinking about this, why would fferyllt (as scum) make the pair Me+Demainer?. If I am right, and the team is ff + Demainer, and they were trying to come up with a plan of who to push while bussing demainer, then their options were : [Demainer+Ivy] [Demainer+Bell] [Demainer + me]

Who every is place into the mafia accusation would come across as town once ff flipped scum. I have been widely town read by nearly every player (except Clasko for some reason), but Ivy and Bell have both been discussed as possible scum. So ff could have chosen me so that both Bell and Ivy would be under suspicion moving into Day 3.

Honestly fferyllt, you seem like a good/experienced player. So I analyzed how your play could help lead to a town win (and could not find it) then analyzed how your play could lead to a scum win, and this is the scenario I found:

Spoiler:

Day 2:

2

v

5

You flip scum today, which appears to clear Me + Demainer, leaving Bell and Ivy under suspicion / Night kill
Day 3:

1

v

4

We vote out one of them / Night kill
Day 4:

1

v

2

We vote out the other

Mafia Win

Compared to if you, as scum made the bussing paid Demainer + Bell

Day 2:

2

v

5

You flip scum today, which appears to clear Bell + Demainer, leaving Ivy under suspicion / Night kill
Day 3:

1

v

4

We vote out Ivy / Night kill
Day 4:

1

v

2

Who ever is left out of Clasko/Egix/Me have to reexamine Bell and Demainer

50/50 Town/Mafia win

So if you are scum paired with demainer, accusing Me+Demainer has a logical reason behind it.

Lukewarm, I didn't think so much about who you've pushed as I did about how you went about it, which is pretty much flawlessly measured and commensurate, just as you're pushing me here. And that measured style matches some patterns I've seen in really, really good scum players. And to be fair, they're measured when they're town, too.

Anyway, I'm ending the day thinking there are better ways to spend a night than sleeplessly turning over a game, and doubting my reads.

Put "whilst" in the thread search box at the top of the page and let me know if something catches your eye.

And reiterated:

Subject: newbie 2060: creatures, night 2

And I think finding out that I'm town before elo is pro-town-wincon, so I'm not against being miselimed.

If you really are town, why are you avoiding answering my questions when I have been asked you to explain your read?

If I were scum with demainer, why would I have made posts 325 and 326 in the game state that those posts were made? If you cannot explain it, doesn't that break the me+demainer pair? You keep saying that you are going to flip town, and then we should look at your reads. If that is what is going to happen, shouldn't you work through the apparent contradiction here?


Of course me asking you this this many times will mean nothing when you flip scum

I've told you that those posts had nothing to do with the pattern that flashed regarding your game presence as a whole.

Or I've tried to tell you. I didn't take those posts into account. Looking at them they make me question the whole pattern, and some of them are precisely why my initial read of you was town.

Without the twin pillars of Egix and Clasko town along with a sense that Ivy is alone and kinda lost in the game, I doubt I would have considered the possibility of you scum. There's still the possibility of Saudade/You being partners but I feel too exhausted to get my head around how that would work right now.

I can't hold onto a Demeaner/you team in the face of the posts. I hope the whole pattern i thing is a false positive and I don't want to be around dealing with paranoia flashes about you later in the game.

Anyway, sort of like arguing with Demainer yesterday, I feel like the argument just goes around in circles. There were probably some late night brain glitches involved in deciding demainer made sense as scum at all. I kinda wonder how I would have processed the game from the start and in the moment. Tempo is so critical in a game, and this game's tempo went from glacial to wildfire after I joined, partly due to my presence and posting.

That explosion of posts another townmarker of my play, though it's weaker. I can hyperpost as scum to keep pace with a fast moving game but there's much less content in my posts as scum. Thinking and rethinking what I'm going to post tends to steam out anything I notice as potentially incriminating or not furthering my scum agenda.

[fferyllt]

If you are town, please hold off voting until everyone you think is town feels ready to end the day.

I've got some posts I worked on during the night phase incoming...

I know waiting for Egix to decide where to place the town vote is the

right

play to make, but I really want to just vote out right off the bat. That would force Egix to choose between you and me. The game would not end immediately, so the only explanation would be that either you are scum (and my vote is right) or I am scum (and the scum team needs one more vote on you before they can win.)

As is, I feel quite powerless, and like I just have to wait for Egix. But if I did that, I could take this game into my own hands. Go out on my own terms lol

Slight topic change though, I am looking for ward to seeing how you play turn this all around. I am very impressed with how you have played this game. Taking over a scum slot that confirmed town had already locked in as scum, and somehow managing to keep town from voting you. Very, very impressive.

Since I think you're scum, I have minimal objections to your voting me! However if you ARE town and I'm wrong about Ivy, then I hope you'll take my suggestion at least until everyone has a chance to post.

[fferyllt]

I want to vote Bell today. It's because Bell is by far my strongest scum read and the most easy to explain.

[fferyllt]

@Mod I'll be at least semi V/LA 4/19-4/21-ish.

I'm getting the second Moderna jab tomorrow and depending on how much of a reaction I have I could be out of it for a couple days. I expect to be able to keep up with the game during that time, but just in case, I'll make it a V/LA.

[fferyllt]

You really wrote a book during the night. This will take some time to parse / respond to

Not my best work, at least in literary terms.

[fferyllt]

yeah, that's my nightmare but I just...don't think so.

[fferyllt]

Something that I noticed in my first read through (and I do plan on posting more responses to your posts, this is just something that jumped out at me). These posts feel like they are written with the goal of swaying specifically Egix, but not Clasko.

The first post, about Saudede, seems partly tailored towards swaying Egix specifically.

This is going to be a small side trip. The reason I made that post to egix, pushing back at his scumread of my slot and challenging him to actually read my play, was because egix is the only player here besides Bell who has played with me, and in that Newbie game I replaced into his scum-partner's slot. The difference in my approach here vs there is almost night and day and I thought egix would be able to see it if he reevaluated my slot. It was a very different gamestate in that game, too, but if anything my entry point into that game was much weaker. A strong, loud player had been calling my slot scum since the start of day 2 and didn't let up in the slightest when I replaced in.

egix should remember that in that newbie game, I really didn't want to state reads, and basically just proclaimed a few players town and refused to say which of the remainder I thought were scum. I "efforted" some replace-in catchup posts and "efforted" some meta towncases (they actually involved a lot of effort -- mostly to carefully pick and choose what to highlight and what to gloss over

And I actively saved the player who was pushing me the hardest from miselim who was pushing me the hardest. He had a semi-guilty jailkeeper result on my slot (which DAYUM I wish I'd realized), though. he would have outed his night action if he'd been around when the miselim happened which would have been disastrous, too. My slot basically wasn't salvagable, though I tried and I did my best to help set egix up for the late game win. I don't think he really needed my help, though!

Anyway, egix was my partner, and he was one of the players I did a full meta dive on and he knows that I'm fairly methodical as scum. I was anything but methodical here on day 2.

Writing this, I'm not even sure egix is still townreading me, and if he's not, or if he's dead, then this game is probably a scum win anyway but I WILL go down fighting.

Like this whole section felt like "Egix, remember that other game we played in together, look how different I am in this game"

But then, neither post has seem to try and appeal to Clasko in the same way. Hell, Clasko's name does not appear a single time in Post 665, and the two times it is in post 667 are this:

But there were two places where something unexpected happened. First, one of his top scum reads, choice for a push on day 2, Clasko outed as Cop with an innocent result.

And then here's his reaction to Clasko's scumread and claim

Where Clasko is being used only as a framing point, not like he is being addressed. I mean Clasko had me listed as suspicious for most of day 2 (until he eventually changed his vote to fferyllt), but she does not even point that out or agree with his points.

If she thought there was a chance that she would need to sway Clasko today, I feel like she would have done something of the sort in her post.

Clasko has no history of playing with me. Neither do you. And neither does Ivy. So, the kinds of post that I wanted to make to/about Egix aren't even a consideration with you three.

Unless!

you and Ivy and Egix if he thinks our one-game history isn't enough (in most cases, it wouldn't be, but because his experience is with replace-in scum-me, it just happens to be pretty helpful) want to read some of my earlier games from this year. My playstyle has changed a little since my first few years at MS, but players who knew me then have pretty much been able to read now-me as well (or poorly) as they read past-me. I linked several of them in my Bell-wall, and those games happen to be useful as meta on both Bell and me.

I found that my first real from-the-start scum game against town players who have been playing with me since 2013 isn't that different from my best scumgames in 2013-2015. I've improved a few things, but the best aspects of my scum game from back then are still fairly present. All said, I'm still a mediocre scum player, and mediocre is often good enough if I bring "want it more" to the table as scum. Which is hard! I strongly prefer being town!

Here's the link to that scum game: viewtopic.php?f=2&t=85085 and here's my iso: viewtopic.php?p=12363814&user_select%5B ... #p12363814

If Clasko were alive today, that would tell me something about the row/column we're in that I couldn't really speculate on during the night and just left it out of my post about you. If he were alive right now, he would still be town IMO. There was basically no branch here that led to scum-Clasko.

My read of you is weaker than my read of Bell. IF I'm wrong some stuff re Ivy's posting, then I can see your play as town. Right now I see it as extremely good scum play that I wouldn't be suspecting at all in a game that hadn't had 2 confirmed town on Day 2. Which is kinda scary!

This whole game is scary, though.

My WIM is to a large extent driven by not wanting to lose to scum-Bell. :/

[fferyllt]

Then you didn't understand my 568. :/

I was saying that in the face of those posts you pointed me at, there was very low likelihood that you were scum with Demeanor, and that also, with Demeanor's alignment still an unknown, it lowered your scum probability, too.

I realize that my reasons for scumreading you are kinda unfair. I would have taken your play more at face value, while still thinking that a logical player is logical as any alignment.

I've been burned by logical scum players often enough that the thought is always in the background, especially when I don't actually know anything about their townplay.

My reads didn't change. What happened was that the probabilities shuffled: Demainer/Bell team went up some. Demainer/You team went down some. And Ivy kinda stayed the same, since I didn't see a whole lot of evidence of her being scum with you or Bell to begin with.

[fferyllt]

I have reconsidered the idea of voting out bell today. If we vote out bell today, then Egix dies in the night, and the entire game will depend on which of the two of us (me+ff) can convince Ivy to vote for the other one. Ivy has been so quiet, their vote is a bit of a wild card, and I am a bit hesitant on leaving the me vs you vote in her hands. I think I would much rather Egix be the one to make that decision.

So today, I think the vote needs to be either me or ivy, and then leave bell for ivy to deal with tomorrow.

If we vote Bell today I think that's the best chance we have of there being a day 4. He's my strongest scumread. Voting you or ivy increases the chances that scum win today. Voting me assures that scum win today. but that's knowledge that other town don't have and all I can do is play my town-heart out here and hope that other town players recognize that.

If you're town, then buck up and do the same - plan on surviving today so there's a day 4 that town has a chance of winning.

[fferyllt]

@Luke,

basically, with the data on the table right now, the only way I'd willingly vote you today is if we were tied at E-2. And I'd be worried as hell that it could lose the game just as surely as my elim will.

Another game day of data will help town on day 4, too. If we can get there.

[fferyllt]

I would have taken your play more at face value, while still thinking that a logical player is logical as any alignment.

Meant to preface: in another gamestate, where we didn't have 2 confirmed town and one likely town based on associations, etc.

[fferyllt]

Our fate is in Egix' hands.

I said the only way I'd WILLINGLY vote you was if we were in a 1v1 and both at E-1.

I would UNWILLINGLY vote you if that's what Egix wants to do. And I'd hope like hell I'm right about Ivy.

[fferyllt]

How much mafia experience do you have, out of curiosity?

[fferyllt]

How much mafia experience do you have, out of curiosity?

Short form mafia, quite a bit. My family played One Night Ultimate Werewolf at least one night a week, every week (and often more) for several months. But 1) that is a very different game and 2)I was trying to read/trick my family members, not strangers on the internet lol.
Additionally, like 6ish years ago, I played some on Epic Mafia.

Long form mafia, not much. This is my first game on here. I have played a handful of games in a discord server, although once again, that server was full of people I knew irl (friends/family), plus those games moved a lot faster then this site. Like 2 irl days per in game day)

My experience is 99% forum mafia, with a tiny bit of chat-style mafia with super-short days and nights thrown in. I learned in a very different forum environment, with 14-24 hour days and 10-12 hour nights, with plurality votes (whoever has the most votes at the end of the day, regardless of whether it's a majority), and with different philosphies from MS about what constitutes balance. I've learned the MS style mafia game, but some of my instincts are from the pre MS days.

So, yeah, sounds like I have a lot more experience. It's a matter of opinion whether experience always translates to expertise/skill, but I think I'm pretty good at the game most of the time. Definitely not among the best of the best at MS, though!

It would be great if this game had 2 near-universal townreads along with Egix today. Ivy's the closest to universal, and she's but one.

[fferyllt]

Any thoughts on how to proceed?

[fferyllt]

IMO Egix should play his cards close to his vest during the early part of this day phase. I'm fine with this.

[fferyllt]

:/

It's really hard to be skeptical of my gut feel that I'm talking to town.

I'm going to do another reread. Maybe later today depending how I feel post-vaccine.

[fferyllt]

to be clear, I'm having trouble holding onto a Lukewarm scumread.

[fferyllt]

sigh

[fferyllt]

I may do 2 or 3 rethinks this game day. And I may come back to the same conclusion every time. But, if I DON'T do that, and if I don't acknowledge my gut, then I'm likely to wind up hopelessly tunneled.

[fferyllt]

I can do all that silently, and not let my thoughts hit the thread but that's a disservice to my team -- the town team.

If you're town, then I need to figure that out.

[fferyllt]

Yeah. reevaluating you means reevaluating her too.

her not posting makes me antsy.

[fferyllt]

basically, my case for you being scum is that your play is too good to be true. That needs a LOT of review and introspection to hold on to.

[fferyllt]

^^ Scum.

Replacing out leaving a vote on another player at ELO is absolutely not something Town-Bell would do.

I'm more than satisfied he should be the elim.

[fferyllt]

Lukewarm, do you concur this move is pure scum-equity?

[fferyllt]

That cat...<3

[fferyllt]

Thank tlaloc I'm not his partner.

That was a gamethrow of a move. He obscummed himself. I mean, there's still a chance town loses this, but the game has gotten easier.

[fferyllt]

I disagree.

I'd disagree even if you were pushing someone other than me.

[fferyllt]

It's extremely difficult to resist the urge to vote Bell-slot right flippin now.

But, it's better to kick all the tires for a few days and then hear what egix thinks about alignments.

[fferyllt]

Thank tlaloc I'm not his partner.

That was a gamethrow of a move. He obscummed himself. I mean, there's still a chance town loses this, but the game has gotten easier.

Based on your experience with Bell, you are going to look at that play and assume he is just throwing the game? Screw his partner, and screw his future replacement?

My immediate question was "what does the scum team hope to gain from him making this play," and then immediately saw you try to use it to push the vote on Bell today. Lines up pretty clearly from my PoV

The obvious thing is luring a vote onto me so that the other scum can hammer.

And that's the problem with town-bell doing it. If he's town, his slot is inactive until replaced and meanwhile two scum are in the game and from town-his perspective I may not be one of them. And in fact from town-his perspective my play should be screaming town more and more with every post I've made. His join date isn't 2013, but he was playing on another account when I first joined the site. We have about 8 years of on-and-off play history that translates to about 4 years of playing together fairly frequently. His account back then was Remembrance.

[fferyllt]

Your not seeing how egregious the issue and still wanting to push me looks partnery. Probably the most untownlike push you've made all game.

I haven't done that reset and read yet, and this play makes me feel like it's probably not even needed.

[fferyllt]

Never in a million years would scum-me make a play like that.

I would not be the first player to hard-push my scum partner.

I would never agree to my partner leaving a vote on my while they replace out.

I'm supportive of replace-outs with my scum partners but I would want them to leave me in the best possible place for going on to win.

This is nothing like the best possible place for scum-me to be.

[fferyllt]

Never in a million years would scum-me make a play like that.

I would not be the first player to hard-push my scum partner.

You would never bus your partner to try and take a win? I thought you said you were experienced at this game. Bussing / allowing yourself to be bussed it regularly the best play for mafia, but you would never bus your scum partner?

I would never agree to my partner leaving a vote on my while they replace out.

I'm supportive of replace-outs with my scum partners but I would want them to leave me in the best possible place for going on to win.

This is nothing like the best possible place for scum-me to be.

I have already explained that I think that this is the best possible pace for you to be in for a win. Bell outing themselves gave you two different plays to make to try and win this game, and you have already tried to use both of them.
1) If you could try to convince me to go along with voting Bell today, then his death could be used to further your game plan of bussing him today, in order to win tomorrow. or
2) If I fought against it, you could try to frame it as indicative that we were partnered, or as you put it, that I was making

Probably the most untownlike push you've made all game

I don't bus as a strategy, no. I bus by necessity sometimes, but I let town decide that's where they are headed. I don't usually consider myself to be the go-long scum player, and focus more on setting up my partner to go long. One of those games you aren't interested in reading is a game where one of my scum partners was having an awful time in real life. I tried so hard to help get him into the game, in a situation where other players were going to correctly scumread him for his lack of engagement. I did eventually vote him, but was pushing the player leading the lynch for more/better reasons late, late into that gameday.

You're either scum (likely) or town who doesn't understand the how awful this play would be if we were partners. And I don't think you can hide behind ignorance or naivety. Not with the amount of experience you claim to have, and with the overall level of play you've shown here.

Maybe? I just don't think so.

[fferyllt]

I mean, you may win if you're scum? I just hope it's not day 3. I hope town gets another day to work on this.

[fferyllt]

Luke, I can't really entertain that because I know incontrovertibly that it's false. That's info that only I have.

Bell is going to flip scum 99.99% and I want to go for the sure thing and hope that if I'm wrong about you, more data will help me figure it out.

Bell doesn't enjoy being scum because he feels like he's bad at it. The one other time that Bell replaced out of a game I was playing, he was scum. Life got busy and he dropped off the site entirely for a couple of years. Drawing a scum role during that time made it easier. I feel like that plays into how he plays this.

And sadly, I think the way he replaced out points away from you in that there's a strong likelihood that he's elimmed and I think you would have been trying to get him to look as town as possible when he replaced out.

and yet at the same time it also points at you because you want my miselim today so the game ends today and not in a 2-1 battle tomorrow, and maybe you feel that a vote already down on me is the best position Bell can make for you.

I feel like it's suboptimal, but I play a low-key scum game and like to just sit back and let town make mistakes when I can.

If Town-Bell really did believe I'm scum, he would have put a case together on me, and most likely wouldn't have dropped a vote.

[fferyllt]

This post just popped into my mind. posting it so I don't forget about it by tomorrow.

atm, I'm trying to see if I can find a good partner for Demainer. I still haven't been liking their posts, but I've felt pretty equal on most everyone else, which is of course a problem.

[fferyllt]

Yeah, maybe try formatting them differently going forward? I think my head has been wanting to decomplexify stuff I read because of insomnia.

I'll see if I can find the other posts you're talking about tomorrow.

Regarding the Ivy quote, I posted it in the interests of transparency.

I'm strongly leaning toward scum-you and town-ivy, but I'm not certain enough to lock it in. I'm still thinking and weighing things up. On day 2, I put my whole thought process into the game thread because I was getting to grips with ~3 weeks worth of game, in 2 days. I wanted my reactions, theories, conclusions, etc. about the game into the thread as data for reading me. This game day, I'm mostly here to react to stuff as it hits the thread, which is in some ways maybe easier to read, and I still want to be transparent. I'm not going to pretend I have stronger reads than I do. I have one super-strong scum read and I and I want to absolutely assure that town gets a scum elim today and the game actually reaches 2-1 and doesn't end with a scum win on day 3.

p-edit I see your new post and I'll go over it when I can get back to the game. I really need to shut things down and deal with vaccine-itis.

[fferyllt]

I don't have a godtier town read on Ivy.

I'm not going to try to dig into this again until maybe tonight. But, here's my bedrock assumptions

I really can't conceive of Bell not being scum.

I would be hammered by now if he were replace-out town and left a vote on me.

I'd be yelling about your not unvoting me, except if Luke and Ivy were both scum this game would be over already.

Egix is cop-cleared town. There's no third option here.

[fferyllt]

Wheme was elimmed on day 1.

Egix
You/Bell
me/Endless
Ivyeo
Lukewarm

[fferyllt]

Why wouldn't they just hammer me?

That makes no sense.

You have no choice but to put me in your scumpile whether you're town or not.

[fferyllt]

I AM AT E-2 WITH 2 SCUM ALIVE

If YOU ARE TOWN WHY AM I NOT HAMMERED?

from my perspective you must be scum. From your POV I must be scum.

If my perspective is wrong, HOW?

[fferyllt]

It's been almost 24 hours and everyone has posted since then.

Luke has been very active since I joined the game. Most of the time when I'm posting, he's right there and replying.

Ivy posts infrequently, a few once a day, I think.

I wish I could believe you're town. Posting while not caught up is something I have trouble seeing you do as scum. But the GAMESTATE screams to me that you're scum. and Bell's play definitely points that direction, too.

[fferyllt]

Luke and Ivy are both at least somewhat experienced in shorter mafia game formats. Luke has been a fairly logical player all along. I've been wondering if his tunneling is genuine or not.

It's hard to believe that they'd be unaware of quickhammers if they are both scum.

[fferyllt]

how would that even work?

[fferyllt]

if luke is town you and I can't both be town. it's simple math at this point.

if you're town you can be trying to figure out if one of luke/me is town

that's not what you're doing.

[fferyllt]

getting townread is like manna from heaven after late day 2. and you're someone who could be reasonably expected to find town-me in my posts this game.

if you are town, I can't grasp how you're processing this game.

I'm going to back away. not feeling that great.

Maybe there's some sort of method to what you're doing.

[fferyllt]

Do you think it's personally in my best interest as scum to come in here and spit rhetoric at you

No, I don't. If there's something you're trying to pursue with this line of thought, I should get out of the middle of it and observe.

That's what I'm going to try to do.

[fferyllt]

What looks to you like unwnd distancing from me?

[fferyllt]

if luke is town you and I can't both be town. it's simple math at this point.

if you're town you can be trying to figure out if one of luke/me is town

If unwnd is town, they should know 100% that you are scum. Because a town bell vote on a town you would have been a scum win. I am unclear why they seem apprehensive on that tbh.

I'm town, though. One of you three is also town.

I don't get at all what unwnd's doing here.

[fferyllt]

I feel recovered from the vaccine so I'll be getting back into this in a more organized way today.

[fferyllt]

I'll try again.

I would like for you to analyze Bell making that play.

Do you think he purposefully made a bad play, because he knew he was replacing out?

I think he may have felt cornered by the gamestate and likely having to 1v1 me* today. and while real life forced his hand he really wasn't enjoying this game. I just didn't feel his usual energy and curiosity in his posts. So, not purposely a bad play, but maybe not thinking it out, and maybe his partner thinks it would have been easy to get a second vote on me. You and Ivy both forgoing that makes me think that one of you must be town if Bell is scum. This is super likely IMO, and I'm really having trouble getting my head around unwnd's tack since replacing in. Hopefully I'm in a better place today to figure that out.

* not all that relevant except to me, but notching up a me-miselim has been on a few bucket lists for a while. I don't think it's on Bell's bucket list just because of how he views his scum game (as being subpar). So a 1v1 with me wouldn't be something he relishes, IMO.

Do you think he did not think about the fact that making that vote would out him as scum?

I think he did it with his partner's buy-in or he wouldn't have done it at all. So, that partner, who isn't a super experienced player, but has a decent grasp of how the game works, thought it was a good move.

Do you think that he was being strategic with that vote. attempting to help his partner as much as he could before exiting the game?

ding ding ding!

If you decide that it is option 3, I would like you to also answer the question: in making that play, who does it help?

I don't think it helps. I think it was a miscalculation, though maybe not a huge one.

Does it help or make it harder for me to get what I want? (For Egix to push todays vote on either you or me)

I am not going to speculate on what egix is thinking or may do. I have confidence he'll play to town wincon, and do so effectively.
Does it help or make it harder for you to get what you you? (For Egix to push todays vote on Bell)[/quote]

Another question I came up with since my original post:
Imagine we follow your lead; vote bell today, and enter into Day 4 with you, me, and Ivy. Do you think Bell's vote against you today make Ivy more likely to vote me or to vote you Day 4?

Depends on if she's town or scum. My bad feeling about tomorrow is that you could be town and you're probably going to vote me immediately. Then I have to decide whether to cross-vote or not. If Ivy's scum it doesn't matter what I do in that scenario, and if she's not, I hope we can find each other before then.

[fferyllt]

Does it help or make it harder for you to get what you you? (For Egix to push todays vote on Bell)

Screwed that bit up. I hope it makes it easier, but more importantly, I hope I'm right. If I'm not, then this day likely ends with a town loss.

[fferyllt]

Luke, part of what puts me off about you is that you express such singleminded confidence that I'm scum and you've solved the game.

I know tunneling is a thing, and it's not the first time I've been tunneled, but the singlemindedness of it in a situation where a miselim loses the game today is over the top enough that I'm having difficulty reevaluating YOU. Every time I start thinking about how Ivy's play has an opaqueness to it that's troubling, that thought trail gets sidetracked by the sheer intensity of your tunneling, and whether that's something a logical (based on your own posts) player would do here.

Tunneling is something that town and scum both do. Look no further than how Demainer was tunneled on Ivy to a similar degree on day 2.

[fferyllt]

Luke, part of what puts me off about you is that you express such singleminded confidence that I'm scum and you've solved the game.

I know tunneling is a thing, and it's not the first time I've been tunneled, but the singlemindedness of it in a situation where a miselim loses the game today is over the top enough that I'm having difficulty reevaluating YOU. Every time I start thinking about how Ivy's play has an opaqueness to it that's troubling, that thought trail gets sidetracked by the sheer intensity of your tunneling, and whether that's something a logical (based on your own posts) player would do here.

Tunneling is something that town and scum both do. Look no further than how Demainer was tunneled on Ivy to a similar degree on day 2.

Is it really tunneling, when I have considered all the options? And posted my thoughts on all of the options as well?

Yeah, it absolutely can be tunneling.

From my PoV, the only possible options are: [you+unwnd] [you+Ivy] [unwnd+Ivy]

I considered all of them, and from my PoV [you+unwnd] makes the most sense to me, [you+Ivy] has the slimmest of chances of being possible, but then [unwnd+Ivy] makes the least amount of sense. That would mean Bell made a game losing play when they were well on track to winning. Like they could have just sat back an won the game.

Once I drop that from consideration, my only options left are[you+unwnd] or [you+Ivy]
So from my PoV, either way, it just has to be you.

Then your pov is flawed. And I have to figure out if it's flawed because you're wrong town, or scum pursuing a miselim. Even if I figure that out, it may not be enough for town to win at this point. 3-2 is extremely chancy imo.

I am pretty sure that it is unwnd over Ivy as your partner, but when we walk into day 4, I will give unwnd a shot to try and convince me otherwise (but I admit, that will be an uphill battle).

Spoiler:

and didn't you come into day 3 with "singleminded confidence" that bell was scum?

I did come into day 3 with singleminded confidence, and just about the only thing that could have made me even more certain happened: bell voted me and replaced out.

And then unwnd's play has come from such left field that I'm rethinking everything again.

I don't think it will change my opinion on unwnd, but it can't hurt to look again.

I need to go back through and really look at your case for being so certain it's me/unwnd. I need to get past "lolnope", but it does boggle my mind that you see partnery stuff between me/bell in particular.

On day 2, if we were the scum team, there was just no reason to cross-bus. we could have cooperated in getting a miselim, and I think I'm a good enough scum player to do that without leaving partner tracks all over a game. It's one of the few things I feel like I do well as scum.

[fferyllt]

That thought trail gets sidetracked by the sheer intensity of your tunneling, and whether that's something a logical (based on your own posts) player would do here.

I'm not sure I understand what you're trying to say here, are you suggesting that Luke's tunnel is illogical and therefore contradictory to the rest of his play?

Logic-based rethinking is one of the things players can do to avoid getting themselves tunneled about another player.

Luke's play is logic-based and I'm trying to figure out why his tunnel is so intense given that.

I'm falling back on a mindset that's usually my baseline in games. I've gotten tilted, and I'm trying to find equilibrium again. My usual mindset is to look at play and see if I can see a town mindset in it. Even if someone's dead wrong or completely antithetical to what I'm thinking, it can still be a town mindset.

[fferyllt]

Luke, what was your thought process here?

...

I am not really happy with any of Ahri's posts. They have not said anything substantial, and half of their messages are memeing about being scum.

So I feel like there are two possibilities, they are scum trying to hide behind the meme of it all, or they are a town player that is not actually contributing to finding the mafia...

I am actually leaning more towards them being an unhelpful town, but either way, I don't like it...

VOTE: Ahri

[fferyllt]

@Ivy

What do you think about Dem, Ivyeo?
And what do you think about me, Ahri?

Dem is a lean scum for me. They were pushing pretty strong on Wheme, but their most recent post was them doubting their Wheme read, followed by silence as our votes still aren't coming to a majority. I'd like to hear where they want to go now whilst we're still not fully unified.

Were these the reasons why you were scumreading Demainer late Day 1?

[fferyllt]

@Ivy who was the townlean?

VOTE: Ahri

Town lean. With the clarification that his feelings haven't changed the inactivity is fine.

[fferyllt]

Ffery I'm still waiting on your assessment on me. Bell is Bell but we're not the same people. Why haven't you considered he was potentially just having an off game?

I have considered that. I just have a lot of trouble with him misreading me like he did here. We've played together in most of my games since I came off hiatus.

What was your method/process for getting into this game?

[fferyllt]

@Ivy

What do you think about Dem, Ivyeo?
And what do you think about me, Ahri?

Dem is a lean scum for me. They were pushing pretty strong on Wheme, but their most recent post was them doubting their Wheme read, followed by silence as our votes still aren't coming to a majority. I'd like to hear where they want to go now whilst we're still not fully unified.

Were these the reasons why you were scumreading Demainer late Day 1?

For that bit yeah, however 272 was me saying that I liked his response enough to put him back to town lean, though his play the next day shifted him back again.

Can you explain why going from strongly pushing Wheme to doubting their read struck you as scummy?

[fferyllt]

Spoiler:

d1 final vote count

WhemeStar (5):

Demainer

,

Ahri

, endlessdark, Ivyeo, Lukewarm

Ahri (3):

Saudade,

WhemeStar

,

Egix96

not voting (1):

Clasko

with 9 alive, it took 5 to eliminate a player.

unwnd, what are your thoughts on this elim-vc?

[fferyllt]

Ffery I'm still waiting on your assessment on me. Bell is Bell but we're not the same people. Why haven't you considered he was potentially just having an off game?

I have considered that. I just have a lot of trouble with him misreading me like he did here. We've played together in most of my games since I came off hiatus.

What was your method/process for getting into this game?

When I replace in I try and offer up some perspectives I felt were missing, and I would even say I have a tendency to join games I think will be more difficult. As for why that is? I don't go in saying 'my presence will dramatically shift the outcome of this game' rather I go 'I'm reading along and I think everyone is missing something that I wish I could say' then I replace in.

you were reading along?

[fferyllt]

He wasn't scumreading endlessdark on day 1.

Clasko/Ivy/Wheme were his day 1 scumreads. He didn't follow the movement to Ahri.

[fferyllt]

I'm not sure what you mean by snap reaction.

[fferyllt]

I'm a little confused

you say "'I'm reading along and I think everyone is missing something that I wish I could say' then I replace in."

"Only around the point where Bell replaces out, which made me go back a bit further."

So you weren't reading the game prior to Bell's replace-out?

[fferyllt]

I'm not sure what you mean by snap reaction.

I think Bell much like anyone else has an ego. Nobody likes to be misread as town, especially in a situation where you know someone. In his mind I think he was convinced you must be scum because you were unable to see that he was town. That behavior isn't even revolutionary, and something I've seen Bell do a ton of times as town.

If that's what happened then he glossed over my posts saying how I could see town-him form that read of me initially, ignored that I unvoted him shortly after our first direct back and forth, etc.

I'm trying not to get over-focused on just-Bell, and look at Saudade and you, too.

If you've got the idea that I'm completely locked in on any read here, you're wrong. I think the 48 hours or so of being feverish, even though I didn't completely stop posting, did give me enough of a break that I hopefully have fresh eyes, here.

[fferyllt]

Agh everytime I go 'wait hold on Ivyeo/Lukewarm can be scum together' I just remember what you told me about hammering

I know.

If somehow they were never quite online at the same time through that, I will laugh a hollow laugh in the postgame.

[fferyllt]

Reading through day 1, this is some of the stuff that stood out to me.

VOTE: Whemestar
Reasoning is a bit weird, I think putting someone at E-1 is more justifiable than E-2 Tbh. Definitely not a strong push or anything yet

Post 25 is an E-1 vote. I have the impression that Ivy has become a quieter, less wave-making player since the early game, and has a tendency to ask questions rather than state opinions. We'll see if this impression holds out.

VOTE: Whemestar
I think putting someone at E-1 is more justifiable than E-2

One precedes the other, though, and doing an E-1 means you agree with E-2. I guess E-2 is a more silent way of pushing an elimination than E-1, but without more context I don't think one is more justifiable than the other.

Fair enough, I guess I didn't think of it like that UNVOTE:
My thought process was more along the lines of it pushing but not really making it look like your contributing as much.

I don't think anyone really pushed her on why she unvoted here, though E-1 at the top of page 2 is risking an accidental hammer and it's good imo that she did.

VOTE: whemestar

Only person I have gotten scum vibes from. His "voting for the same thing is something we don't want" while simultaneously joining a wagon felt off to me lol.

Btw, today is my husbands birthday, so I probably won't check this forum again until in the morning. Promise to be more after that tho

Noting that Lukewarm ignored the #31 backpedal.

VOTE: Ivyeo

This is a not-partners-with-Ivy post from Saudade if the slot is scum. The way this hit the thread gives me slight townvibes.*

No no no........................!
it's the need to state the obvious that pinged me

I'm not sure what you mean by this exactly?

He's not neccesarly saying Dark isn't scummy, he's saying you are *more* scummy than dark, we want to execute our most likely scum do we not?

These two posts give the vibe to me of someone who is playing up their uncertainty. Like asking if her mafia-theory is sound, kinda, and ending it on a question makes it easier to take back if needed. Could just be a playstyle thing, but I want to note it.

Spoiler: oh you sweet summer child

Before I go sleep, my guess is WhemeStar/Clasko mafteam.

My scumreads are Whemestar, Ivyeo and Clasko.

Ivyeo does not seem to be contributing much to the conversation, and what they are sending is very wishy-washy. Their messages so far have been a vote, a quick unvote, and then this one:

Whilst I do see the scummyness in Wheme's posts, I'm not sure we want to cut Day 1 discussion to right here.

They just seem like they are being overly cautious, which I feel is more likely with a scum then a town.

Being honest, this mostly comes from being worried because my reads were *basically* 100% wrong last time I played, and I don't want to cause us to lose again. I have some reads but I'm not sure if they hold any water? Like I had bad vibes from Wheme but then their defense made me less confident in that, and now them trying to keep pushing defensively isn't feeling very towny to me, but again that's just kidna vibes and also nothing special for how town has been feeling. I had a town read on Clasko for example, because the whole W/W thing felt good, but also them saying they town lean *both* of them instead of "picking a side" makes me like them less. I still think I need more time to really have anything scum reads at this point, as I feel less sure on Wheme, but part of that may be a thing from the other games I play, as they're generally more strict on behaviorial stuff.

No no no........................!
it's the need to state the obvious that pinged me

I'm sleepy and will elaborate further tomorrow, but take into account that she's a newbie. Her posts don't yet strike me as needing-to-state-the-obvious (filler?) in a scummy way.

No but this tell was usually what newbies fell for while the veteran gods (me) knew to avoid it

If Ivyeo is not an experienced player, I can see stating things in a more-than-necessary clear way as expected. Ivyeo, what's your experience with mafia?

On a Fourm this is my second game, as said earlier first I got Mis-elim'd in F4, and But I'm pretty active in *other* social deduction games such as BoTC, though that feels more information based and less read based. I've also did Video mafia for a few weeks, but stopped as I didn't really vibe with it.

This post, starting out with "Being honest," why bring up honesty, and why be anything but honest as town? "I have some reads but I'm not sure if they hold any water?" finishing with a question.

This post got Luke some blowback

I don’t like how you are set on me being the flip on page 5

Yes its page 5 (well 6 now), but we are also on the 6th irl day for our in game Day 1. Maybe I am just not accustomed to the pacing of games on this site, but it feels like we are approaching the point where we just have to pick someone. Like there is only so much info we can really gain in day 1 until we force someone to claim, no?

I am getting pretty antsy for us to l-1 someone just so we can gain new info. Force someone to claim their role, then decide if we want to actually hammer the person based on what they claim. I mean if we wait to much longer, then if we L-1 someone, and decide we shouldn't hammer them, we won't even have long to form a new wagon.

I am not necessarily saying that I think it needs to be you, I would be happy for us to L-1 anyone on my scumread list tbh, so for now, I am gonna be on the biggest wagon between Whemestar, Ivyeo and Clasko.

VOTE: Ivyeo because I have sat on the Whemestar wagon for a while, and the Ivyeo wagon is the same size, so might as well mix it up lol

He's not saying that he wants to run people up one at a time and get claims. The reasoning to move votes is pretty lame, though. He said that Ivy is wishywashy, which I think is a fair way to characterize her play at this point in the game.

I'm kinda meh about being willing to vote any of three people in a 9 p game on page 6(?). I know the game moved really, really slowly, but I feel like that should have made people want more data, not to settle in on a wagon.

I don't understand why we need role claims so early in the game, it's only going to hurt town? Unless there are special mechanics in this setup I'm not aware of.

No, I do not want multiple people to claim their roles, but I do think that it is important that we vote someone before the day is over, but there are quite a few steps to get us from here to there.

First we L-1 the person we most suspect to be scum, at which point that person (

and only that person

), should claim their role. Then we either hammer that person, or if their claim causes us to rethink the vote, we have to target someone else.

To me (and again, it might just be a different pacing on this site then what I am used to) it seems like we have hit a point where we are just treading water, and at some point we need to pick a direction to go. I don't want us to tread water so long that we don't have time to go through all of the steps, especially if we decide to rethink the vote.

This post gave me a sense that Luke is a methodical player. I wonder if I've been calling the method logic erroneously. The three scumreads weren't very deeply thought out, though it is 6 pages in. It's hard to believe the game had been going on for days. 6 pages is slow-posting for the first 24 hours in a lot of games, much less nearly a week.

I Like Ivy's posts at the bottom of page 6. That was some nice pushback on Luke.

UNVOTE:
Actually on second thought, I want to hear more form Luke here first before placing my vote

You know, this somehow makes me think you are less likely to be scum. Which is weird because, I scum read you at first for being wishy-washy, but now I am going to town read you for the same thing lol. When you voted Whemestar, I was surprised to see someone who previously seemed wishy washy, to suddenly commit and agree with me.

But then you unvoted, so your wishy-washy-ness is at least consistent

I think I'm actually removing you from my list of scum reads, and I'm down to Whemestar and Clasko. Those two would actually work as a pair, with Clasko's logic that confused me actually being an attempt to pull suspicion off of Whemestar.

Clasko and Whemestar were incorrect reads. Not sure why I want to note that, just a feeling that Luke has had some wrong positions in the game but he hasn't seemed to be shaken by that. I dunno, the game almost always faces forward and regrets and apologies are for postgame.

I don’t like how you are set on me being the flip on page 5

Yes its page 5 (well 6 now), but we are also on the 6th irl day for our in game Day 1. Maybe I am just not accustomed to the pacing of games on this site, but it feels like we are approaching the point where we just have to pick someone. Like there is only so much info we can really gain in day 1 until we force someone to claim, no?

I am getting pretty antsy for us to l-1 someone just so we can gain new info. Force someone to claim their role, then decide if we want to actually hammer the person based on what they claim. I mean if we wait to much longer, then if we L-1 someone, and decide we shouldn't hammer them, we won't even have long to form a new wagon.

I am not necessarily saying that I think it needs to be you, I would be happy for us to L-1 anyone on my scumread list tbh, so for now, I am gonna be on the biggest wagon between Whemestar, Ivyeo and Clasko.

VOTE: Ivyeo because I have sat on the Whemestar wagon for a while, and the Ivyeo wagon is the same size, so might as well mix it up lol

This is an excellent post, like, this guy is town

^^ This post could be a partnery thing, though I got the impression that Saudade tends to ignore teammates as scum. It's hard to ignore people in a 9p game, though.

In a dead/dying gamestate the person who livens it up by being proactive is 99% of the time town

I liked this post. Some of Saudade's were part of the reason I didn't want to scumread Bell initially. I really expected us to sort each other quickly and move on from there if he was town.

Wheme and Luke are townleans for me lets go we might get a win here yet

Not supporting the Wheme wagon here would have been anti-scum-wincon I think, though there was still time to ove things around.

I'm forming opinions on others that I don't want to give words to just yet. Stay tuned.

- Ivyeo: - /M - Too back and forth on WhemeStar now, especially after the interaction with Lukewarm.

Whilst I am somewhat back and forth, my logic for it is consistent. My most recent vote on Wheme I took back because I didn't really have a strong reason to have a vote on him. It's more a gut feeling than anything so I decided I didn't want to be voting based on that. Tomorrow I plan to go back through some ISOs to try to form a more solid opinion, as I currently don't have a definite idea of who I'd want to go for.

This post is kind of a promise to do more <tomorrow> in the way of figuring out where she wants her vote. She was also hesitant to figure out what she wanted to do with her vote at the end of day 2, also.

And she's playing her cards super close to her vest here, and I think it might be because she's not gotten any pressure to speak of today. She's not out of the frame. Ivy needs to step it up and be readable before tomorrow if the game doesn't crash today.

Quoting this because

WhemeStar

33 - Minor town vibes, especially considering that the thread atmosphere so far this game has mainly felt like one where scum would find it easy to point out something scummy.

54 - I don't really feel like Wheme has been overly defensive, and I think that the attitude shown here is justified by 71.

106, 118 - I find it a bit odd that Wheme goes from being "confused" by endlessdark's frustration comment to thinking it "sounded made up and fake". By which I mean, if you always thought it was fake then why would it confuse you?

125 -> 128 - I think that this argument is fine.

Also, a thought that's been brewing in the back of my mind is that, so far, the gamestate has mainly felt like it's a case of "Wheme is going to be yeeted D1, but we can't drop the hammer yet because we still need to allow plenty of time for discussion."

The issue is that there still hasn't been a huge wealth of discussion, which implies that scum are content with this gamestate. Yes, Wheme has been defending himself, but why has seemingly no one else made a solid effort to divert attention elsewhere?

I want to think on the bolded.

Wheme and Luke are townleans for me lets go we might get a win here yet

I can't find rationale for townreading Wheme in any of your posts, did I miss it?

This was a good callout of Saudade's Wheme read.

@Mod I am a little unsure about the dead line after reading your last update. It said you were adding 24 hours, but the countdown is still pointing to the day ending in 3 hours. I don't want to mess up just because I don't understand the timer

If they day ends in 3 hours, I would like to hammer Whemestar now, because I'm off to bed and will not be back on before the dead line
VOTE: timer dependent, whemestar


If we still have 27 hours, then :

WhemeStar I am prepared to hammer when I log on tomorrow, so go ahead and claim your role.

It's interesting that this contingent vote was allowed without comment from the mod. It's not something generally done at MS.

hey newer players i'll probably post a full death message upon 5 hours but if you're planning on hammering me b4 then just type smth like

INTENT TO HAMMER

I unvoted from you, so you are not longer at e-1

UNVOTE:

WhemeStar I am prepared to hammer when I log on tomorrow, so go ahead and claim your role.

I’m confused

Are you still planning on hammering me?

When I logged on today, both whemestar and ahri were at e-1, but no one else has stated an intent to hammer. This leads me to believe that one of the two of you is most likely actually scum (and that person's partner is already targeting the other person).

I am not as confident as you can possibly be on day 1, that either you or Ahri are scum (and that their partner is already on the other person's wagon).

And if I am comparing the two of you, I am more suspicious of you. So I INTEND TO HAMMER you today.

Another signpost that things are not always what they seem. Not living in the thread during these last hours, the two wagons don't feel as stagnant as all that.

--------------------------------------

coming around to a Saudade/Bell/unwnd townread is going to be a huge uphill struggle if it happens. Rereading the early game is reminding me why I thought Saudade-scum might N1K Ahri (apparently know each other/Epic Mafia playstyles). His posts feel more town than not, though.

[fferyllt]

Ugh. I hate this feeling. It feels like I am stuck in a room being gaslit. I am literally trapped in a conversation that is me+2 scum (with the very occasional chime in from Egix or Ivy). If I am going to stay involved in the conversation, I am going to need some substantial input from Egix so I'd don't feel like I am going this alone.

Spoiler:

As for the Ahri vote, I am pretty sure I made my stance really clear at the time. I did not have any strong scum reads, and the way they were playing was annoying. Long periods of posting nothing, then popping in with posts meming about being scum. They were either scum using that as a defense, or they were someone who was not going to help us win, and were therefore a better Day 1 miselim then the other possibilities. As the day went on, my scum read on Wheme got stronger, so I moved my vote.

This pisses me off. You're not being gaslit by me.

I'm fucking trying to figure this game out and I'm trying to give all three of you as fair a shake as possible in the process.