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catboi
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Post Post #925  (ISO)  » Mon May 03, 2021 7:56 pm

In post 923, marcistar wrote:
In post 909, catboi wrote:marci: did you breadcrumb or hint at your role prior to day 2?

I don't think I have, I usually try not to hint at my role earlier than I have to, because i'm aware at how utterly bad and obvious it is when I try.. why? (:

Okay, I asked because if you had actually crumbed it anywhere day 1, it would change my view. I don't think crumbing or hinting is necessary for town PRs and often there are antitown consequences for doing so, but I felt the need to ask because not everyone plays like me and there's always a chance.

In post 917, catboi wrote:I think it's marcistar, actually, if my very leading question did not make it clear. On day 2, because of Not_Mafia's fakeclaim, I had mentally calibrated to both PR claims being confirmed town. When he flipped jailkeeper, I completely forgot that there's a setup with a jailkeeper and no tracker (I'm not used to this new newbie setup, I've played 1 real game on it). It's very unfortunate but I nly realized it after T3 flipped and I was left wondering to myself who N_M jailed if not Lukewarm. And that was when I realized marcistar wasn't clear at all.

So you think i'm not actually tracker right..? What made you jump to that conclusion first?

Well, after the flip I was somewhat struggling with how to process the info - It seemed highly unlikely to me that N_M would target someone other than lukewarm, his most vocal scumread. It was then that I realized simultaneously that there's a setup with a jailkeeper and no tracker, meaning you aren't clear, and the blocked kill would mean that, if we are in column C, mafia would know it's the setup with the jailkeeper and that tracker is a fake safeclaim. That was the basis for my initial suspicion.

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Post Post #926  (ISO)  » Mon May 03, 2021 7:59 pm

In post 917, catboi wrote:I think it's marcistar, actually, if my very leading question did not make it clear. On day 2, because of Not_Mafia's fakeclaim, I had mentally calibrated to both PR claims being confirmed town. When he flipped jailkeeper, I completely forgot that there's a setup with a jailkeeper and no tracker (I'm not used to this new newbie setup, I've played 1 real game on it). It's very unfortunate but I nly realized it after T3 flipped and I was left wondering to myself who N_M jailed if not Lukewarm. And that was when I realized marcistar wasn't clear at all.

This is an interesting take...

I have not really thought about that possibility. Because I thought we had 2 confirmed town, I did not even consider them. I am not sure that I am sold, I am going to take some time reading through the thread thinking about if I think that is actually a possibility.

I was sure that today was gonna start with you making a case against me, so this day has already started off completely differently then I expected :lol:

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Post Post #927  (ISO)  » Mon May 03, 2021 8:01 pm

ayy lukewarm is here :cool: now let's solve this game :eek:

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Post Post #928  (ISO)  » Mon May 03, 2021 8:11 pm

Honestly I'm a little tired right now but I'll try to power through and write my thoughts out for you all right now so you don't have to wait

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Post Post #929  (ISO)  » Mon May 03, 2021 8:15 pm

Just running through the setup suggestion

If we are in a 2xGoon set up, and then no one died Night 1, scum know for sure that we are in C2. That means they know we have a jailkeeper as our only pr.

If they were going to fake claim a PR, then they would be limited to the two that prs that could appear along side a tracker, Tracker and Friendly Neighbor. If they claim FN, the first question is "who did you reveal yourself to" and the fake claim immediately falls apart. So the logical fakeclaim is Tracker.

Because VFP was a goon instead of a scum PR, we cannot eliminate this possibility...

Damn... This is actually a reasonable scenario. I was sure that I was walking into Day 4 with Catboi as the only option. And suddenly, I am actually going to have to think today T.T

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Post Post #930  (ISO)  » Mon May 03, 2021 8:17 pm

Thinking??? in my mafia games??? Wtf :mad: :cry: :evil: :roll:

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Post Post #931  (ISO)  » Mon May 03, 2021 8:26 pm

In post 925, catboi wrote:Well, after the flip I was somewhat struggling with how to process the info - It seemed highly unlikely to me that N_M would target someone other than lukewarm, his most vocal scumread. It was then that I realized simultaneously that there's a setup with a jailkeeper and no tracker, meaning you aren't clear, and the blocked kill would mean that, if we are in column C, mafia would know it's the setup with the jailkeeper and that tracker is a fake safeclaim. That was the basis for my initial suspicion.

So you're just assuming thats what not_mafia did..? I can't fight against that because everyone can think whatever they want, but i'm really not scum.
People could always make last minute decisions :P

i dont know how to really fight against that :? but i don't understand how I could've possibly been fake claiming..? I'm not smart enough to pickup on reasons like that as to why a nightkill would be stopped. I'm more likely to overpanic :P

It's quite obvious to me why I wasn't killed now, all three of you seem to agree on this stance... but are you sure scum didn't predict it and made the nightkill on pear for that reason..?

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Post Post #932  (ISO)  » Mon May 03, 2021 8:27 pm

In post 202, Samawoodo wrote:Acually @catboi , from my POE, u have started getting townie points in your last posts, not enought to consider you a townie atm, we are 9 players atm and is hard to "gamble" anything right now.

You asked me before about who i was suspecting, im going to try making a proper list

My strongest townie read atm is Norwee as i said.

Then N_M (losing points because inactivity maybe (?) ) and maybe Pearl (between null/ slightly townie)

Then right now you are null with meuh

Marci was null, but i dont like how she feels worried about a null reading coming from an almost afk player (Toriii), is like she is trying to "demostrate" he is townie yes or yes, and this made me feel like :?

Toriii low profile is kinda sus (and didn't answer the fact he is suspecting one of the stronger townie reads (from my poe as i said), dunno if is lack of reading, or just random pointing), but i cant talk too much about low profiles because my participation is just "enough" (being generous with myself)

iN3kro feels kinda scummy aswell.


So, to start off, Sama calls marci null but makes sure to hedge a bit by mentioning something he doesn't like. By itself, not much notable at all, but it does feel like a read scum might leave on a partner, so that if their partner gets caught they can point back to this to try and take credit for suspecting them.

In post 257, Samawoodo wrote:
In post 228, marcistar wrote:Samawoodoo you placed a vote on tori in 15, but haven't changed votes at all since then. Is there a reason for this..? Does the vote still hold true to your thoughts on this game as of currently..?


At first it was kinda random as you can guess, he hadn’t posted yet, so it was to force him to speak.

But then, he had weird posts, pointing norwee because his posts were kinda scummy (we asked for them and he didn’t reply), then he said norwee was more townie (norwee has been playing since the beginning townie as fuck)

And then his activity is not the best (trying to be low profile?)

Idk, I don’t have a better option right now for D1

Past this, he rarely interacts with or mentions marcistar, the one really notable time is explaining himself here. I think in particular for a newer player, the most common tendency is to avoid their partner, because they know they're on the same team and don't see as much need to pay attention to what their partner is posting or talk to them.

In post 107, marcistar wrote:Toriiiiiiiiiiii - neutral Earlier, I thought they were kinda nervous/unsure, but I didn't know if it would point to anything. I dont think they're scummy as of rn, just seems like they need to get the groove into things still :P
Samawoodo - slight scum I didn't agree to how he could be seen as awkward earlier in the phase, though I find it quite weird that since he defended himself, he hasn't come on since.. It might be because of timezones and him not having time, but I would really like to see him give more reads at this point.
iN3krO - slight scum I'm not really sure he had town intentions in mind, he seems kinda chaotic (like he doesn't wanna help town all that much.) What he's done is very surface level... (does that make sense?). I would like to see him come in a bit more often also.
Meuh - slight town As of right now, nothing meuh has done stands out as different from the other games I have played onsite with her (where she's always been town so far). Though I'll still be keeping out my eye for her :eek:
Pearofclubs - town I feel like they've been playing with the goal of helping town in mind, so they're a very big townread from me (:
Not_Mafia (SE) - neutral I feel like it will be very hard to read him, but I don't really think anything he's said so far has been scummy.
NorwegianboyEE (SE) - town How much they contributed at the beginning makes me think hes town trying to help us out as much as possible. I don't really see the helpfulness coming from a scumplayer.
catboi (SE) - neutral I agree that we need more contributions from him now that he's had a bit of time to get in, though that isn't enough to put him as a scumread imo because he hasn't said anything weird/wrong yet.

Notably, in marci's first reads list, she has Sama as "slight scum" but puts emphasis on wanting to see more reads from him - I also think this is fairly typical scum play for a newer player, you see your partner isn't saying much so you lightly pressure them/ask for reads to get them into the game/make it seem like they're contributing.

In post 164, marcistar wrote:hen in i looked back to see what might make you think this way, and ask you if is what pinged you..?

does this make sense..? im getting so confused rnnnn :cry: :cry:

In post 162, Meuh wrote:The way Sama has been positioned and the way people have interacted with them have me uneasy

I should go and read back as to why I'm uneasy but when I ISOed ppl earlier to make the questions I felt like Sama was positioned in a way I could see them in a lot of different scumpairs, which is why i asked so many ppl about them

What scumpairs do you see him in?
tbh I wouldn't be surprised if hes scum... I expected him to be a bit more active/give a bit more reads since he said he's played before, he hasn't really casted suspicion onto anyone except in3kro, so I think if samawoodoo is scum in3kro wouldn't be..?

Samawoodoo can you get in thread and give some reads/a readslist..?

:neutral: im so conflicted, I think I need to readback on everybody because I don't think my 2 biggest suses rn would be in a team together :lol: :lol:

Although she continues to vocalize suspicion of Sama here, there's what I would call a hesitance to put real pressure on him.

In post 183, marcistar wrote:
In post 179, Samawoodo wrote:I dont see the point of that tbh, i mean, is not like he asked you for a 2v2 or something like that (anyway, that wouldn't be a problem either). Is like you are being so defensive without reason :? (We are at D1 still)

I agree, I don't see the point on him holding out reads :cry:

In post 179, Samawoodo wrote:If someone ask about my thoughts, i wouldnt have any problem sharing them

on this note, do you have any thoughts on other people..?

In post 207, marcistar wrote:
In post 202, Samawoodo wrote:Marci was null, but i dont like how she feels worried about a null reading coming from an almost afk player (Toriii), is like she is trying to "demostrate" he is townie yes or yes, and this made me feel like :?

I just wanna know their thought process behind it, I don't mind if they scumread me just wanna know why :cool:

In post 228, marcistar wrote:Samawoodoo you placed a vote on tori in , but haven't changed votes at all since then. Is there a reason for this..? Does the vote still hold true to your thoughts on this game as of currently..?

This is where it gets interesting - despite qusetioning him, there's no real followthrough from marcistar. Did she think Samawoodo's answers were ok? Not enough? We don't really know. She just moves on to...

In post 303, marcistar wrote:
In post 290, catboi wrote:Are you actually interested in flipping me? How is that supposed to give information on those two?

If you think Meuh is a better vote, that's fine, I've already said I don't oppose it.

Explain what bothered you about that Samawoodo post?

Like, if I had to pick between the wagons you would be the one i'm most interested in. But this was before norwegienboyees vote on meuh.
(I feel like I need to vote within somewhere thats already voted, because not alot of people are budging, and we need info from a flip.)

Well, meuhs buddying you, and samawoodoos buddying her is how I see it.
So I think generally in most cases, scum wouldn't be buddying scum.
so like if ur scum, meuhs not. if ur town, meuhs not. thats what i was originally thinking but when i think more idk :shifty: but i still dont like meuh following after you so easily, I don't see a reason for her to.

so then like to explain about samawoodoo, it just seems like he did that because meuh has those kind of thoughts also. (like meuh said ur more townie... and then samawoodoo says ur more townie..) though he could just see meuh as a really townie town leader I guess..?
it just sort of seems like... not really buddying actually but... having too similar thoughts to her..?

Here, suddenly, when me and Meuh were getting pressure, she's okay with voting us, and is mentioning Samawoodo as possibly being connected somehow. He's in the background, mentioned as a possible suspicion, but she's suddenly trying to justify pushing other players. Notable, too, is the way she trise to draw connections between Samawoodo and me/meuh - as scum know their partner is mafia, they will often try to tie them to a townie before they flip, so that if their partner gets caught they have someone to push on. Keep this type of behavior in mind.

In post 312, marcistar wrote:for the samawoodoo stuff: like, he just seems to be doing alot of what you are..? which is why i kinda thought meuh + samawoodoo might be the scumteam. (like meuh doing stuff, and samawoodoo being inexperienced scum, so he just copies what his partner (meuh) does.)

Again, another instance where she's trying to tie Meuh to samawoodo on day 1. Keep in mind this is happening while several players are voting Meuh, while there's much less traction on Samawoodo. I also don't really think is a very logical reason to see them as being teamed.

In post 327, marcistar wrote:
In post 320, catboi wrote:That's an interesting point about Sama repeating opinions. Do you have other examples of this?

Huhhh im so confused, I remembered seeing it before... but now that i'm reading back..
I think it held more weight in my mind at the time, but now doesn't hold as much weight. Their very beginning of the game together.
Also when he was like
In post 143, Samawoodo wrote:in3kro D1 is starting to be kinda sus,

At the time it felt very much like a copy of others.. though I guess not strictly Meuh..? IDK why I remember these things as linked to meuh :dead: I think it's because he said that soon after meuh said "maybe slight scum lean" or something like that.

But then when I question her on her read, she can't back it up. She can't really name a specific instance of Samawoodo copying reads like she said. To me it feels like she invented some shade on her partner to distance from him, but couldn't justify it when questioned on it, and didn't want to case her partner in a way that would get him voted, so she walked back the read when questioned on it.


This is getting long, so I'll break up the VFP stuff into its own post.

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Post Post #933  (ISO)  » Mon May 03, 2021 8:28 pm

In post 931, marcistar wrote:
In post 925, catboi wrote:Well, after the flip I was somewhat struggling with how to process the info - It seemed highly unlikely to me that N_M would target someone other than lukewarm, his most vocal scumread. It was then that I realized simultaneously that there's a setup with a jailkeeper and no tracker, meaning you aren't clear, and the blocked kill would mean that, if we are in column C, mafia would know it's the setup with the jailkeeper and that tracker is a fake safeclaim. That was the basis for my initial suspicion.

So you're just assuming thats what not_mafia did..? I can't fight against that because everyone can think whatever they want, but i'm really not scum.
People could always make last minute decisions :P

i dont know how to really fight against that :? but i don't understand how I could've possibly been fake claiming..? I'm not smart enough to pickup on reasons like that as to why a nightkill would be stopped. I'm more likely to overpanic :P

It's quite obvious to me why I wasn't killed now, all three of you seem to agree on this stance... but are you sure scum didn't predict it and made the nightkill on pear for that reason..?

I don't think either of them have agreed with me, they've just said it's "interesting".

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Post Post #934  (ISO)  » Mon May 03, 2021 8:43 pm

In post 513, marcistar wrote:I'm sorry guys I was too pissed to play yesterday ;-; my brothers so annoying :evil: :evil:
In much better vibes today :good: :good: but its so hard to not jam out to my weeb songs :lol:

In post 489, catboi wrote:Really? What are your reads right now?

I think t3's lil push for jailor to out is kinda scummy, also how he hammered norwegianboyee so soon after he entered the game... just feels like he didn't wanna give the effort to give in depth reads :P
Otherwise, i'm not really sure.. but I think vfp feel kinda weird :? idk how to explain well, but like... well I just don't really like what he's done so far. since I townread pearofclubs, his read on them didn't really sit right with me originally. His thoughts could be valid tho, since he has an outsiders pov on it and wasn't there in the moments.. But idk it just seems to be pushing at really nothing..? Pearofclubs would be such an easy push for a scum to make without getting blood on their hands, since they're majorly townread.

So like my order would prob be t3 -> vfp -> catboi -> not mafia -> pearofclubs -> meuh

In post 549, marcistar wrote:
In post 543, Pearofclubs wrote:What're your reads as of right now? It'll be good to have the information around, should you end up flipping green today- and even if you don't get elimmed, it'll be good to have your thoughts on the books before the days end.

How many votes am I at..? I'll claim if I need to, but i'm not sure if I need to now.. or if i should wait a bit longer..?

I think that t3 and vfp are scum.

In post 552, marcistar wrote:
In post 550, Not_Mafia wrote:Why those 2?

I don't like t3 trying to out jailkeep when it could easily be multiple things + their vote yesterday was stinky :dead: :dead:
I don't like vfps push on pearofclubs, it just seems like something hes doing to not get any blood on his hands, y'know?

So, again we see this: she FoSes VFP, but names T3 as her first read. She keeps the slot as potential scum but tries to push elsewhere fisrt. This is fairly typical scumplay. Also very notable is her justification for scumreading VFP in that last post: she says he's trying "to not get any blood on his hands", which dosen't really make sense. I don't see any way in which VFP's push on pear was him trying to stay clean. I'm not great at spotting bussing, I admit, but I think this is the type of thing that fits the bill: scum are predisposed to see their partners as scummier than they actually are, and so they so they will tend to FoS their partners early, but have a hard time justifying it in a way that makes sense. That read on VFP reads like someone who knows he is scum but dosen't have a good way to explain it, so they're making something up.

In post 729, marcistar wrote: (praying its the right post) seems like VFPS just latching onto the bandwagon lukewarm has been trying to get going... in efforts to save himself maybe? Pretty scummy imo.

And then,
In post 616, Lukewarm wrote:I don't have a scum read on VFP atm. I currently have them as a null read. I would need some good arguments built around him being scum before I would be willing to vote for him.

seems like partners protecting eachother till death do them apart <3 (but not in a way to make it obvious)

In post 729, marcistar wrote:
In post 649, Not_Mafia wrote:I'm the doc, I was on Pear, now vote VFP or catboi

So pears town okai. At this point its looking more like a VFP X Lukewarm.

Here again she's trying to tie lukewarm to VFP before he flips. Remember what I said about how scum like to tie people to their partners preflip? This feels like more of that.

In post 870, marcistar wrote:
In post 868, T3 wrote:No way a scum Lukewarm says: I'm not too sure about this vote and then hammers a partner.

how are you so sure hes town? from what you've been saying it seems like it.. but theres nothing clearing him so far..? :?
things like you've been mentioning can seem either or tbh.
-
he could've easily wanted to not vote him, but then get told to... so im confused why ur so confident :P

In post 883, marcistar wrote:this game feels so solved already :cry: :cry: should we just end phase now..?

In post 877, Lukewarm wrote:I think the only other thing we could do before we pass the vote is for Meuh, Pear, and Marci to all voice their opinion on me vs catboi tomorrow, just in case the vote on T3 does not end the game. In that scenario, which ever one of you do die overnight will have left something to help Day 4

I feel like it would be more likely you, i feel like catbois too helpful to be scum.

I'm so stressed rn because of classes :roll: i'm sorry i haven't been here so often. i feel so useless.


But now, here, on day 3, after VFP has flipped, marci doesn't mention anything of her VFPxLukewarm read from the day before, she's content to let us hang back and eliminate T3 without much protest. She barely mentions he read from the day beore, not even to say she's changed it, and that to me is suspicious.

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Post Post #935  (ISO)  » Mon May 03, 2021 8:46 pm

So I decided to go back through Day 1 looking for Marci / Sama interactions, and I noticed a distinct lack of them.

I scrolled through, and I noticed Marci seemed to be quoting basically everyone, but not Sama. So I started counting both Marci and Sama's quoted messages until I found the first time they cross quoted one another.

As of post 182, Marci quote counts:
Meuh : 10
Norwgian : 13
Pear : 5
Not_Mafia 3
iN3 : 1
Torii : 6
Catboi : 1
Sama : 0

As of post 182, Sama quote counts:
Meuh : 6
Not Mafia : 1
Torii : 4
Catboi : 1
Norwegian : 0
Pear : 0
iN3 : 0
Marci : 0


It does not stand out with Sama as much, but Marci seems to be a prolific quoter, and looked to be avoiding Sama. She had quoted every single other player in the game by post 107 (Iso 20), but then did not quote Sama for the first time until post 183 (iso 37). 20 posts to quote 7 players, and then 17 more before she got the last one in.

I could see this arising from scum trying to distance...............

I was so convinced it was catboi.

I am not saying that I am on board with marci = scum yet. I was just really hoping the accusation would fall apart after a cursory review, and it just hasn't, and I am really going to have to do a deep dive into both possibilities now.

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Post Post #936  (ISO)  » Mon May 03, 2021 8:53 pm

In post 501, VFP wrote:T3
iN3krO

Meuh
NM
marcistar
catboi

Pearofclubs

Initial reads, marcistar as scum but above me and pear. FoS your buddy, push on townies.


In post 501, VFP wrote:NorwegianboyEE's wagon is never an all town wagon here.

In post 425, lendunistus wrote:NorwegianboyEE (5): Pearofclubs, iN3krO, catboi, Meuh, T3 [HAMMER]

I'll be honest: I never investigated this becaue I think VCA is bunk. I completely forgot who voted Norwee until today. And suddenly, looking at it, what do I see? VFP trying to put out the idea that scum HAS to be on the wagon, when at a minimum 4/5 people were. The only player alive whose slot was not on the day 1 wagon? marcistar.

But that's not really how it works. Sometimse townies make dumb decisions, and are pressured by constraints of the deadline into voting (like what happened with T3). Scum will absolutely try to stay off an elim wagon if they can help it.

Quite often, you will see people trying to advance the logic that scum were voting on an incorrect elimination. This is a logical fallacy, by pure math it would happen about 16.7% of the time in a 9 player setup if everyone voted randomly. Those aren't insignificant chances at all. The fact that VFP was making that argument makes me think he was trying to argue for restricting eliminations to a pool he knew was all town.

I'm making this its own post because that line that was hidden in the spoiler has just strengthened my read greatly.

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Post Post #937  (ISO)  » Mon May 03, 2021 9:03 pm

In post 525, VFP wrote:
In post 510, T3 wrote:VFP, thoughts onmarci?


is a good post from town mind set plus pushing the game forward, but majority of their posting is just fence sitting and safe for me.
I can go into more detail if you want though but I'd rather lim here than Catboi from my bottom 3.

Although he says here he'd rather vote her, it's a very vague read with not a lot of detail to his suspicion. He doesn't really actively push marci, just asks her a few weak questions elsewhere in . ("why didn't you vote norwee?" is notably nonsensical)

In post 525, VFP wrote:
In post 520, Meuh wrote:I haven't liked Marci's recent posts and considering the pressure being put on her, I'll go ahead and ISO her.

In post 521, Meuh wrote:I'll VOTE: Not_Mafia for now since I like having my vote somewhere :cool:


I'm not liking this if Marci is scum, but I'm sure a follow up will ease my thoughts here.
Here we see it again: he's drawing associations between Meuh and marcistar before either has flipped, trying to tie Meuh to marci if marci flips scum - he's lining up a push for if marci gets voted out.

In post 533, VFP wrote:Meuh is always town here for me.
Marci lim works for me and I think we just win with Meuh, T3, and iN3krO as town here.
Marci scum makes NM town and iN3krO is plausibly the partner for
Marci town just means 2 scum in Pear, Catboi, and NM

more attempts to try to tie marci to other people before she flips

In post 561, VFP wrote:
In post 560, Not_Mafia wrote:And you think day 2 when we stopped the kill n1 is time for a deep wolf push


Of course. Pear is getting off lightly for ticking the scum boxes.
The fact they still haven't gone over iN3krO after 2 requests makes me think they just can't generate another fake read. also shows that they are not reading the game as I already stated why you and Marci aren't scum together.

I'll vote betwen Pear, Marci, and Catboi at this point.

Marci is currently E1 (I think?) and I'll hammer if it comes to it but I want some input first since little has been said since I joined in.
At no point have I said I am limited to Pear only.

Big one - although he's consistently FoSed marci, he avoids actually voting her at any point, and when she's at E-1, voids hammering, saying he wants "input" first. I would be surprised at scum passing up an opportunity to hammer town if given so. I would have been screaming at him to do so givemn that I had felt marci had been softclaiming a power role - sure, he'd get voted out afterwards but it would be too good an opportunity to pass up.

In post 690, VFP wrote:Regardless I'm pretty sure this is just a win.
Meuh not visiting makes them town here as they would have been visiting for either the kill or the Rolecop.
Pear being protected means town.
2 PR claims not CC.

This means we have 4 town out of 7 going into night 2.
Scum are only possible to be in me, T3, Catboi, and Lukewarm.

I don't think T3 is scum here so the pool narrows down to me, Catboi, and Lukewarm with T3 as the additional.

NM dies tonight, we have 3 town and a clear on someone. Scum flip today means that we have 4 town out of 6 players.

There's really nothing to try and solve here.

But then, when the claim comes, unflinching acceptance. Barely even recognizes it. is content to push in the pool of supposed "unclears" we thought we had since N_M was claiming doctor. To me this doesn't feel like scum who is boxed in and is risking autoloss if their roleblocker teammate is caught. He's okay with this, likely because he knows his partner is safe for the day.

catboi
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Post Post #938  (ISO)  » Mon May 03, 2021 9:11 pm

That's about it for my case. Read it over and let me know what you think. Tbh, although I had some doubts still going in, I really think the "never an all town wagon" comment from VFP just solves the game.

₍₍ ᕕ(´ ω` )ᕗ⁾⁾

marcistar: your first instinct here is going to be to argue against my case. That, of course, is fine, you have the right to offer a rebuttal. But, ultimately, arguing that you are town oly goes so far in a mafia game. The best way to clear yourself is by showing that someone else is mafia. If I'm wrong, and it's not you, then who is mafia? I need you to answer that question for me.

Meuh
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Post Post #939  (ISO)  » Mon May 03, 2021 9:18 pm

In post 936, catboi wrote:
In post 501, VFP wrote:T3
iN3krO

Meuh
NM
marcistar
catboi

Pearofclubs

Initial reads, marcistar as scum but above me and pear. FoS your buddy, push on townies.


In post 501, VFP wrote:NorwegianboyEE's wagon is never an all town wagon here.

In post 425, lendunistus wrote:NorwegianboyEE (5): Pearofclubs, iN3krO, catboi, Meuh, T3 [HAMMER]

I'll be honest: I never investigated this becaue I think VCA is bunk. I completely forgot who voted Norwee until today. And suddenly, looking at it, what do I see? VFP trying to put out the idea that scum HAS to be on the wagon, when at a minimum 4/5 people were. The only player alive whose slot was not on the day 1 wagon? marcistar.

But that's not really how it works. Sometimse townies make dumb decisions, and are pressured by constraints of the deadline into voting (like what happened with T3). Scum will absolutely try to stay off an elim wagon if they can help it.

Quite often, you will see people trying to advance the logic that scum were voting on an incorrect elimination. This is a logical fallacy, by pure math it would happen about 16.7% of the time in a 9 player setup if everyone voted randomly. Those aren't insignificant chances at all. The fact that VFP was making that argument makes me think he was trying to argue for restricting eliminations to a pool he knew was all town.

I'm making this its own post because that line that was hidden in the spoiler has just strengthened my read greatly.

iirc N_M was the third player not on the Norwee wagon, it wasn't just Sama/VFP + Marci, makes neither of them being a townread from VFP kinda weird to me

marcistar
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Post Post #940  (ISO)  » Mon May 03, 2021 10:24 pm

In post 938, catboi wrote:marcistar: your first instinct here is going to be to argue against my case. That, of course, is fine, you have the right to offer a rebuttal. But, ultimately, arguing that you are town oly goes so far in a mafia game. The best way to clear yourself is by showing that someone else is mafia. If I'm wrong, and it's not you, then who is mafia? I need you to answer that question for me.

Originally, that wasn't gonna be my first intention tbh ^.^ but I wasn't able to get in before you made your case, so I'll defend myself against your case and then do this after.. Since, it's best for me to respond to everything in thread first because otherwise my really bad memory will forget to.. But its coming hopefully! If it doesnt remind me omf :dead:
--
To start off, I can't really defend myself that well against anything you've really said about what Samawoodoo/VFP have done, since I'm not them. If I do, it would turn into small comments because I have no idea their line of thinking. Also uhh, hopefully everything I quote nicely... Idk if u guys can tell but big posts scare me :P
---932---
Spoiler:
In post 932, catboi wrote:Past this, he rarely interacts with or mentions marcistar, the one really notable time is explaining himself here. I think in particular for a newer player, the most common tendency is to avoid their partner, because they know they're on the same team and don't see as much need to pay attention to what their partner is posting or talk to them.

I know I just said I wouldn't reply to this sort of stuff, but I do have a case to make for myself according to this logic, though I already acknowledge it might be quite weak.
Usually, as scum where I've played before, I try to take more control of things my partners do. Idk if meuh would remember the game where me x her x 2 others on the team, I tried to lead a member into claiming, but they wouldn't listen. I was so mad at that point, because I couldn't control them. So transfer it to this, why would Samawoodoo have this sort of stance on me if I was his partner..? I full well would've written him a whole paragraph to copy paste to sus me, I like everything to line up with how I want it... so why exactly is it not as picture perfect as I want..? Because I'm not scum. :P

In post 932, catboi wrote:Notably, in marci's first reads list, she has Sama as "slight scum" but puts emphasis on wanting to see more reads from him - I also think this is fairly typical scum play for a newer player, you see your partner isn't saying much so you lightly pressure them/ask for reads to get them into the game/make it seem like they're contributing.

He was full on inactive.. I usually feel bad for inactives, and prefer to wait until theres something to incriminate them.
Why would I pressure "my partner" for more activing when I could just ask them in scumthread to do it..? Putting pressure on a partner, isn't in my best interest if I am scum. Especially in this case when "my partner" is just inactive, I could just let them coast.

In post 932, catboi wrote:Although she continues to vocalize suspicion of Sama here, there's what I would call a hesitance to put real pressure on him.

How am I hesitant there..? I've never dropped my interest in them, I wasn't gonna let them just ignore me when I wanted answers :roll: But he just, was never on at the point I was..? I just couldn't do as much as I wanted because of that.

In post 932, catboi wrote:This is where it gets interesting - despite qusetioning him, there's no real followthrough from marcistar. Did she think Samawoodo's answers were ok? Not enough? We don't really know. She just moves on to...

Ahh, all the quotes i'm quoting is starting to confuse me now :cool: :cool: but, usually when I just drop something I think the answers i got are good for the timebeing.
Also I have a bad memory, but that probably wasn't the reason there.

In post 932, catboi wrote:Here, suddenly, when me and Meuh were getting pressure, she's okay with voting us, and is mentioning Samawoodo as possibly being connected somehow. He's in the background, mentioned as a possible suspicion, but she's suddenly trying to justify pushing other players. Notable, too, is the way she trise to draw connections between Samawoodo and me/meuh - as scum know their partner is mafia, they will often try to tie them to a townie before they flip, so that if their partner gets caught they have someone to push on. Keep this type of behavior in mind.

I'm not really ever comfortable voting anyone day 1, but you guys were the ones i was decently okay with.

In post 932, catboi wrote:Again, another instance where she's trying to tie Meuh to samawoodo on day 1. Keep in mind this is happening while several players are voting Meuh, while there's much less traction on Samawoodo. I also don't really think is a very logical reason to see them as being teamed.

Is it not a strategy to buddy with your partner early in the day..? That was my logic at the time, because I remember seeing it a few times before.

In post 932, catboi wrote:But then when I question her on her read, she can't back it up. She can't really name a specific instance of Samawoodo copying reads like she said. To me it feels like she invented some shade on her partner to distance from him, but couldn't justify it when questioned on it, and didn't want to case her partner in a way that would get him voted, so she walked back the read when questioned on it.

I cant really make a rebuttal for this one, but it felt like it all day to me, i mentioned that didn't I..? It felt alot more like it when living in that moment, but when read later, couldn't really feel like it.
As scum I would be conscious of what i'm doing and probably fact check, so that I wouldn't fall into a hole such as that.

---934---
Spoiler:
In post 934, catboi wrote:So, again we see this: she FoSes VFP, but names T3 as her first read. She keeps the slot as potential scum but tries to push elsewhere fisrt. This is fairly typical scumplay. Also very notable is her justification for scumreading VFP in that last post: she says he's trying "to not get any blood on his hands", which dosen't really make sense. I don't see any way in which VFP's push on pear was him trying to stay clean. I'm not great at spotting bussing, I admit, but I think this is the type of thing that fits the bill: scum are predisposed to see their partners as scummier than they actually are, and so they so they will tend to FoS their partners early, but have a hard time justifying it in a way that makes sense. That read on VFP reads like someone who knows he is scum but dosen't have a good way to explain it, so they're making something up.

I can't deny this, but I really do feel bad when I push on inactives :cry:
VFP "not trying to get blood on his hands" = pushing pear (pretty townie person in most peoples eyes) = prob not gonna get eliminated = wont be blamed upon their death.
I've also caught scum based on pretty weird logic in multiple games i've played off site. I'm pretty good with intuition, just bad with... actually making an elimination happen on them. So my "predisposed to see their partners as scummier than they actually are and have a hard time jusifying it in a way that makes sense." Doesn't really fit with my play style offsite imo, but if it's similar to my onsite I can't argue that, since I'm aware the styles are slightly different :cry:

In post 934, catboi wrote:But now, here, on day 3, after VFP has flipped, marci doesn't mention anything of her VFPxLukewarm read from the day before, she's content to let us hang back and eliminate T3 without much protest. She barely mentions he read from the day beore, not even to say she's changed it, and that to me is suspicious.

I mentioned it I'm pretty sure, but I was so so stressed because of classes.. so I was just barely on because of that :cry:


In post 935, Lukewarm wrote:I noticed Marci seemed to be quoting basically everyone, but not Sama.

He was inactive, there wasn't really much to quote I'm pretty sure, and when there was I feel like it felt already resolved..? (this is essentially my argument for the whole post actually, would've just changed up a few wordings.. but I'm running out of time aaaaaah)

Considering I'm running out of time and would kinda like to get a bit of hw done today.. is it fine if i reply to the very first thing I quoted tomorrow..? :cry: :cry: I'm going to bed in like 30 mins
this took forever to write ommf im so sorry i wish I could've done everything I wanted to in one day ;-;

catboi
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Post Post #941  (ISO)  » Mon May 03, 2021 10:29 pm

There's no need to feel rushed. We have a week. I do want to see who you think is mafia, even though you're my main suspect right now.

Lukewarm
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Post Post #942  (ISO)  » Mon May 03, 2021 10:29 pm

In post 940, marcistar wrote:Considering I'm running out of time and would kinda like to get a bit of hw done today.. is it fine if i reply to the very first thing I quoted tomorrow..?

girl, we have like 7 days to sort this out. I for one know it is gonna be a while before I am ready to vote

marcistar
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Post Post #943  (ISO)  » Mon May 03, 2021 10:34 pm

i wanted to reply to it all today :cry: :cry: but it took waaaay longer than i thought

but ttyl guys have a good night :cry:

Lukewarm
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Post Post #944  (ISO)  » Mon May 03, 2021 10:48 pm

In post 940, marcistar wrote:He was inactive, there wasn't really much to quote I'm pretty sure, and when there was I feel like it felt already resolved..? (this is essentially my argument for the whole post actually, would've just changed up a few wordings.. but I'm running out of time aaaaaah)


Spoiler:
I double checked if Sama was the least active leading up to the first interaction between one another. By that point Sama had 13 posts, Tori had 6, and iN3 had 5. Yet Sama was the one you had not quoted, and you had actually managed to quote Tori just as many times as she had posted (6 quotes) :lol:

To be clear, my post about the number of times you quoted each player is not supposed to be damning evidence against you. Like I am not using that to scum read you at all. It is really coming more from me trying to decide if I should dismiss catboi's accusation or seriously consider the possibility.

The accusation making sense given the setup possibilities + the Sama being your least interacted with person day 1 + the content of your day 1 interactions, all together means I have decided to take it seriously.

So I am going to have to dedicate some serious time looking it over now.

I second catboi's question. If you are town, who do you think the real scum is, and why?

Meuh
Goon
 
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Post Post #945  (ISO)  » Tue May 04, 2021 9:34 am

Yeah, the accusation against Marci has enough backing to warrant serious consideration.

marcistar
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Post Post #946  (ISO)  » Tue May 04, 2021 8:41 pm

ill be on soon i promise!

marcistar
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Post Post #947  (ISO)  » Tue May 04, 2021 9:40 pm

wait cancel that my mom just asked me to do something so i cant write out my big read i have for prob an hour+
:cry:

catboi
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Post Post #948  (ISO)  » Wed May 05, 2021 12:23 am

No rush. Take your time.

I must admit while it's nice that my case is being considered the fact that the response from both meuh and lukewarm is essentially "yeah that makes sense" is a little unnerving >_>

Meuh
Goon
 
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Joined: February 01, 2021
Pronoun: She

Post Post #949  (ISO)  » Wed May 05, 2021 5:25 am

In post 948, catboi wrote:No rush. Take your time.

I must admit while it's nice that my case is being considered the fact that the response from both meuh and lukewarm is essentially "yeah that makes sense" is a little unnerving >_>

My mentality coming into this day was that you were 95% scum, so my energy is shifted towards going over the alternate possibilities and their validity, and while ofc confbias is a thing, everything is lined up in a way where Marci could very well be fakeclaiming. I haven't really made my mind up on if I do think it is her, and there's no rush really, I was just making sure the theory stood strong enough to warrant being considered, and it does :cool:

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