Newbie 2083: Viae Romanae - End!

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fferyllt
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Post Post #725  (ISO)  » Sun Nov 28, 2021 12:12 am


Image

Yeezys died last night. They were a Town Mason.
Last edited by fferyllt on Sun Nov 28, 2021 12:29 am, edited 1 time in total.
Amid the pressure of great events, a general principle gives no help.

On the path to becoming yourself, you'll need to choose alignment over validation from others, peace over addictive chaos, and being misunderstood over false acceptance. --TheHolisticPsychologist
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fferyllt
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Post Post #726  (ISO)  » Sun Nov 28, 2021 12:12 am

Vote Count 3-1
Day 3 Begins!

Image

Are you a little envious? impressed? I am.



Not Voting (5): Looker, kennyk, fixer, MBot, Val89


With 5 alive, it takes 3 to eliminate.


Deadline: December 6, Midnight US Eastern Time.

Countdown: (expired on 2021-12-05 09:00:00)

Mod Notes:

- :]
Last edited by fferyllt on Thu Dec 02, 2021 2:38 am, edited 1 time in total.
Amid the pressure of great events, a general principle gives no help.

On the path to becoming yourself, you'll need to choose alignment over validation from others, peace over addictive chaos, and being misunderstood over false acceptance. --TheHolisticPsychologist
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Looker
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Post Post #727  (ISO)  » Sun Nov 28, 2021 3:55 am

In post 638, Looker wrote:
In post 521, Looker wrote:Is it these two?
Spoiler: Maybe #1
In post 71, Andresvmb wrote:Yes we’ve done this song and dance.

Also, I have officially reached 20 consecutive games as Town (completed). I have flipped in another one but I will not speak to that one just yet.
In post 512, Andresvmb wrote:VOTE: MBot

Spoiler: Maybe #2
In post 496, yeezys wrote:VOTE: T3
ive wanted to do this for the past four days explanation coming soon
In post 514, yeezys wrote:VOTE: DkKoba
it appears that i have a higher chance of getting at least one scum member voted out today if i vote koba
sorry, koba
but then again? no i'm not sorry

Spoiler: Alternate?
In post 396, kennyk wrote:And while I wrote this whole thing I did make up my mind and want to go a step further.

VOTE: DkKoba

As the day is slowly ending we need to get rid of someone. I still believe floatingmay could be scum. But as no one else seems to be willing to follow my argumentation, let's get to a more promissing but also shady target.


VOTE: Andresvmb

Spoiler: Votecount
Sorry, still catching upT3 (1): Val89,
DkKoba (2): kennyk, yeezys
fixer (1): MBot
MBot (3): DkKoba, Andresvmb, T3
Andresvmb (1): Looker

Not Voting (1): fixer
With 9 alive, it takes 5 to eliminate.


I respect the troll.

@MBot - Is it you?

Also, at what point do we discuss fixer's aversion to voting?

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Post Post #728  (ISO)  » Sun Nov 28, 2021 11:17 am

So this leaves us with two possible setups (A3 and C3) which are now totally the same, except for the role PM our remaining scum got. But it doesn't matter if it was roleblocker or goon, as a roleblocker can't block a mason.

That's the good thing. The bad is that we are not going to get any easy guilty verdicts from anyone as there is no investigative town role.

And what is the best play for our remaining mason? Claim or no claim? Claiming today would lead to a sure NK of that mason if we miselim today (which has a 1 in 4 chance in case of a claim) and a 2 on 1 tomorrow. Not claiming could lead to the same result except that the other mason could be one of the 2 townies on our last day. A claim on that day could be counterclaimed by the remaining scum. But if there were enough crumbs for X and yeezys being masons together it could well be, that it is a 50 % thing depending on who the mason votes.

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Post Post #729  (ISO)  » Sun Nov 28, 2021 11:37 am

I thought the play was claim at e-1 or counter claim, otherwise don't claim

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Post Post #730  (ISO)  » Sun Nov 28, 2021 11:39 am

Also, @kennyk: How do you feel about fixer's voting history

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Post Post #731  (ISO)  » Sun Nov 28, 2021 1:06 pm

Is what me? The other Mason? I'm trying to figure out how someone claiming the other mason could hurt town. Only the last mafia would counterclaim that role reveal and at least we don't have to worry about outing PT.

I'd like to hear any thoughts on why they shouldn't reveal. That would leave 2VT to TH instead of completely in the dark guessing.

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Post Post #732  (ISO)  » Sun Nov 28, 2021 1:18 pm

I have my guesses but will wait for more input from everyone before I throw it out there to consider between two options.

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Post Post #733  (ISO)  » Sun Nov 28, 2021 3:16 pm

Is the scum you lol. I had you as most town and scum is extremely confident in NKing my suspicions.

Also, I was under the impression we could save the mason in case of miselim today. Rather safe than sorry. Admittedly, I don't know how counterclaiming works with only three people left, though.

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Post Post #734  (ISO)  » Sun Nov 28, 2021 3:18 pm

Fixer

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Post Post #735  (ISO)  » Sun Nov 28, 2021 3:56 pm

Any scum will say they're not scum soo that's not helpful. So far we have

Mafia - Koba
Mafia -
Mason - Yeezys
Mason -
VT - Andres
VT - T3
VT - Mbot
VT -
VT -

I'll let the other mason decide whatever they want to do and hope that their private chat gave them a better perspective on the game. I'll have to go back and analyze votes and interactions again with the current reads to give examples but need to sit down at a computer for all that. I suck at finding specific examples to connect the dots for everyone else where my train of thought is. I'll try to do that today.

If Mason revealed then there could only be a Mafia counter claim. If Mafia claimed Mason then the real Mason would know for sure who the Mafia is and it would be the same town vs Mafia claim battle. Mafia wouldn't really gain anything from a mason claim other than a possible NK which they'll get with a mislim except they'd go after the only confirmed town to keep us guessing. I may be wrong here but thats the only way I can see it playing out. I guess one benefit to claiming today would be that there are more town minds put together to sort out who the last Mafia is.

I'm second guessing my reads looking back and have no idea what I'd do in the counterclaim scenario. Reading Looker and Fixer again has me tossing my reads and starring over. They don't have anything as scummy as I originally thought on surface level.

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Post Post #736  (ISO)  » Sun Nov 28, 2021 6:45 pm

In post 718, Looker wrote:
In post 705, Val89 wrote:Sorry, I should have been more clear Looker - I know what WIFOM is, it was the "pending a mislim" part of it I wasn't sure about. Who are you telling us you think is at risk of mislim here? Yourself? T3?

If T3, why are you townreading there?

Process of elimination. It can't be T3 and yeezy/kennyk.


I am confused about what happpened at the end of the day here, Looker. I admit I was expecting the game to be over with T3's flip, and thus didn't pay too much attention elsewhere, but I don't see how this one follows. I have to ask the question again; who was mislim were you warning us about, if that is what you were doing, in the spoiler tag of ?

Why were you townreading T3 at 677, and why did you change your mind and subsquently hammer? It appears from the above you were trying to say you were townreading T3 because there was only one scum remaining, and it couldn't be T3 AND yeezys/kennyk; but the same applies to fixer as well, and you gave them a red label in your readslist. I'm hoping you can explain the progression there, because I don't see it.

On the subject of fixer, are you suggesting fixer's lack of votes is scum-indicative? I recall he was V/LA for the vast majority of D1.

As far as the mason partner goes, I have two things to say - firstly, I am not sure an explict VT claim was warrented there, MBot, but I can't see how it is alignment-indicative in any way, and secondly; Kenny seems to have pretty much hit the nail on the head as far as the merits of the second mason claiming today - doing so today is almost certainly a death sentence; although scum will simply not be able to CC today - if a scum CCs today, there is time enough to flip both claims since we got a scum D1. If we mislim today, however, there is no reason scum wouldn't claim to be the partner in an F3; and it'll be upto to the remaining VT to evalaute two competing mason claims with only one shot to get it right.

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Post Post #737  (ISO)  » Sun Nov 28, 2021 7:55 pm

You answered your own first question and referenced my answer to your second: I thought T3 was town but I also thought Andres was scum, and it didn't look like the wagon was going to shift before the holiday. I relied on majority judgement and it didn't pan out.

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Post Post #738  (ISO)  » Sun Nov 28, 2021 7:57 pm

Re:fixer he didn't vote D1 or D2

Re:Mason, I at least wanted scum to work for it today and put in some effort before immediately revealing the pr. Worst case scenario, Mason claims before the hammer to give some further discussion. I just don't want an easy reveal.

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Post Post #739  (ISO)  » Sun Nov 28, 2021 8:12 pm

Poe, Val. Reveal is helping other townies figure shit out so that there are less questions. If I get NK for it and we still pull off a town win then I'm good with that. TW dead is better than MW in my book. We have the option to narrow down further D3 to make it easier later. I guarantee that mafia will try to pressure a random town at this point to take the attention off of them. It's easier to pinpoint BS at this point than in early game.

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Post Post #740  (ISO)  » Sun Nov 28, 2021 8:34 pm

How do you determine whether it's random

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Post Post #741  (ISO)  » Mon Nov 29, 2021 3:23 am

I'm not sure why you want to discuss my voting history @Looker as I personally don't think it's AI but if you want my explanation on it; d1 I was V/LA by the end of the deadline, d2 I decided to stay off the T3 wagon + there was indeed a hammer that wasn't me so yeahh. I'm not as focused on voting as I thought I'd be but atleast I'm not jumping from wagon to wagon trying to get a town miselim, what would you call that?

In post 602, Looker wrote:
your town is a lazy bunch of sacksDkKoba (4): kennyk, yeezys, Val89, T3
kennyk (2): DkKoba, Looker
fixer (1): MBot
MBot (1): Andresvmb

Not Voting (1): fixer
With 9 alive, it takes 5 to eliminate.


also reminder that you were on the kenny wagon oh em gee..... :shifty:

i don't exactly remember what happened d1 that wouldn't make you join the vote but you definitely could've hammered/joined the koba bw at any time since you are more of an active voter than me. Could you explain why you were on Kenny again at the time? + I'll read back in a few hours.;;

MBot wrote:Poe, Val. Reveal is helping other townies figure shit out so that there are less questions. If I get NK for it and we still pull off a town win then I'm good with that. TW dead is better than MW in my book. We have the option to narrow down further D3 to make it easier later. I guarantee that mafia will try to pressure a random town at this point to take the attention off of them. It's easier to pinpoint BS at this point than in early game.


True! Though it's been obvious that you/Val are town at this point, poe is Looker/Kenny and I'm sticking to a Looker scumread rn, it's obvious who the last mason is at this point. ( but you can only have this top secret info from a vt view, watch out scummers :cool: )

In 10 hours or so I'll make a better post abt things that I find a little scummy from ISOing Looker's slot from before. Although there's always a chance there could've been a wifom play late d1 ( > mbot/kenny hardpushes from Koba iirc ) I kinda doubt it.

Looker wrote:Fixer


Looker :wink:

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Post Post #742  (ISO)  » Mon Nov 29, 2021 3:52 am

In post 737, Looker wrote:You answered your own first question


I'm not sure you (I?) did. Could you point out where?

Looker wrote:and referenced my answer to your second: I thought T3 was town but I also thought Andres was scum, and it didn't look like the wagon was going to shift before the holiday. I relied on majority judgement and it didn't pan out.


My question is why you thought T3 was town. When I asked, you said "Process of elimination. It can't be T3 and yeezy/kennyk.", but that doesn't really answer my question, because it couldn't be both yeezy/kennyk OR fixer, whom you also listed in red in your reads list. Process of elimination means, to me, working out who is town and then limming amongst the remaining null/scumreads. Your PoE seemed to be, as of yeezy/kennk > fixer; but my quation is why was T3 green. Why was he eliminated from that PoE whereas fixer wasn't. That's what I am asking.

It's important to me, because I'm not following the progression there. We are talking about your D2 read list, not D1, so I don't see what Andres has to do with it. I'm asking you about this, again, because it looks to me like you put T3s name in green but can't actually tell us why you were townreading there because you don't have a good reason for doing so - I don't think there was a single other player left here who was townreading T3, but I'll stand corrected if I am misremembering, but I am surmising you thought it would draw suspicion to have 4 names in reds, and so you (unjustifiably) listed T3 green.

If I am wrong about that, and you had good reasons to actually townread T3 yesterday you haven't shared, you better tell me now; alongside an explanation as to what caused you to change your mind and when, because you being evasive about it over two days to the point I have to explicitly state my exact suspicions is pinging me in a big way.

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Post Post #743  (ISO)  » Mon Nov 29, 2021 6:02 am

I was on the kennyk wagon because I'd just replaced in and wanted MBot, Andres and you (fixer) to vote so that I could sort you. I also didn't think DkKoba was scum because I'm not accustomed to scum going down D1 with that much attention.

@Val: I'm sorry you're not better at asking questions, but here's another phone response - I'll jump on a computer later. You're saying PoE can only happen from finding town - clearly I disagree. T3 wasn't likely to be scum because I already had my suspicions and he wasn't one of the players I was suspicious of. Again, it's impossible to prove a player is town without mechanical confirmation, so trying to force me to prove T3 was town without that is impossible and comes off as a setup.

And Andres is obviously relevant regardless of the Day because he was a read of mine, a wrong read, so it's not ludicrous to have doubts and periods of reevaluation after having been wrong.

The "you better tell me now" requires an eye roll and this entire push is weird coming from you of all people.

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Post Post #744  (ISO)  » Mon Nov 29, 2021 7:10 am

In post 743, Looker wrote:@Val: I'm sorry you're not better at asking questions


I would say I'm sorry you aren't better at answering them, but I'm not, because you might have slipped under the radar a bit more if you were.

Looker wrote:T3 wasn't likely to be scum because I already had my suspicions and he wasn't one of the players I was suspicious of. Again, it's impossible to prove a player is town without mechanical confirmation, so trying to force me to prove T3 was town without that is impossible and comes off as a setup.


I'm not not asking to "prove" T3 was town, and clearly there is no need to, as we can all see he was town, so I'm not even sure what this attempt at misrepresentation even is. I'm asking why you felt T3 warranted a green townread at the time you posted your D2 read list, and given he must have done something to change your mind because you hammered him; can you explain what it was that caused to lean the other way for you eventually?

Again; your answer as it stands still reads very much like 'T3 is green in 667 because already had 3 scumreads', which doesn't seem town-indicative to me; the unspoken part of that is 'I was worried I would be scumread for not having enough townreads if I gave a fourth', and that's not something I think town worries about. It just so happens that 3 mislims is exactly what scum!you needs to achieve to win following a D1 scumflip, after all.

In post 743, Looker wrote:The "you better tell me now" requires an eye roll and this entire push is weird coming from you of all people.


Well, exactly as what happened with Koba D1, I was asking questions to clarify an aspect of your gameplay that could have scum motiviation to see if there is a something I've overlooked, and if it could be coming from town instead. When instead what I get is evasion, implications that I am an idiot and shouldn't be taken seriously, and/or OMGUSy pushback, that's when it becomes a vote.

Why me "of all people"?

VOTE: Looker

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Post Post #745  (ISO)  » Mon Nov 29, 2021 7:11 am

Concerning the counterclaim scenarios:
Val is totally right about a fake mason (counter-)claim is the death sentnce for scum. So it won't happen today.
If we get to "scum - VT - mason" tomorrow, there are three possible scenarios:
1. The mason doesn't claim: Bad idea! Both townies have to find the scum. Random voting by both of them gives us just a 25 % chance of winning.
2. The mason claims, there is no counterclaim: Here the mason is the deciding factor, as scum and VT have to vote each other. The mason has a 50 % chance of success.
3. The mason claims, scum counterclaims (or the other way round): Here the VT is the deciding factor. scum and mason vote each other. VT has a 50 % winning chance.
So as far as I see things, scum has the option to not counterclaim. This whole thing is heavily relying on the randomness of not forced votes. So if scum thinks, that the mason reads him more town than the VT, he could very well not counterclaim. Or with this tactcic written down here, he could just do it to confuse the VT into believing him not being scum.

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Post Post #746  (ISO)  » Mon Nov 29, 2021 7:37 am

Looking at some things again, I noticed one thing: We are for sure either in the A3 or the C3 setup. We won't know in which, until after this game ends.
If we are in the A3 setup, it could very well be, that the mafia roleblocker bussed the goon to gain some towncred. Allthough Koba seems to be a big sacrifice.
In the C3 setup such a bus would be even worse. In two out of the three possible setups (for two mafia goons) there is a very dangerous town PR for a lone scummy. I would be too afraid to try and do such a trick.

So if we were in the C3 setup, I would assume, that scum wasn't on the Koba-wagon. This would leave looker and fixer.

Those two are conincidently the two persons I have at the lower spots of my read list as both MBot and Val are on a heavy townlean for me. As of now looker would be my choice for a vote. But as we are at E-2 right now, I would like to see a little more discussion before casting that vote.

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Post Post #747  (ISO)  » Mon Nov 29, 2021 8:38 am

In post 741, fixer wrote:
In post 602, Looker wrote:
your town is a lazy bunch of sacksDkKoba (4): kennyk, yeezys, Val89, T3
kennyk (2): DkKoba, Looker
fixer (1): MBot
MBot (1): Andresvmb

Not Voting (1): fixer
With 9 alive, it takes 5 to eliminate.


also reminder that you were on the kenny wagon oh em gee..... :shifty:


Now that you mention it, as well as jumping on the kennyk wagon as soon as T3 switches to Koba; "Your town" is an interesting choice to phrase to use there that I didn't notice the first time around. Persepctive slip?

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Post Post #748  (ISO)  » Mon Nov 29, 2021 10:35 am

You of all people because you voteparked DkKoba then jumped off when his wagon started to gain traction, only to make sure you were in the exact middle of his wagon when it went through. And you're reiterating yourself by quoting my answer and then asking the same question again, seemingly injecting spin. "Implications of idiocy" is inaccurate appeal to emotion. And "Your town" because I replaced into it and a lot of you were inactive.

You're either voting out of spite or opportunism, but it's not going to end well for town. Are you ESL?

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Post Post #749  (ISO)  » Mon Nov 29, 2021 11:59 am

I'm also curious as to why I would NK Andres, the only other person on the kennyk wagon, instead of killing someone on the DkKoba wagon and leaving doubt/mystery between myself and Andres, especially if I'd been suspecting him already. It just doesn't make sense.

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