Newbie 2084: Signs [game over!]

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Greeting
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Post Post #700  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 30, 2021 6:45 pm

In post 683, MegAzumarill wrote:You were irreparable scum in their eyes and you knew it.
You would have to kill them at some point this game or you would lose. And each day their vote only grows stronger

This is pretty strong pressure and a pretty strong statement I would say. Considering the fact that I read all Prism’s posts in preparation for analysing ProHawk and the facts are that Prism in her last posts wasn’t willing to vote me out that much at all until they got a stronger read on me.

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Post Post #701  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 30, 2021 6:54 pm

I believe the pressure is well merited. I have since D1.

The PT thing in itself is not reason to vote you, but when scum's actions line up with what you would basically be forced to do, and you are already scummy, its not hard to connect the dots.
Always remember that you are more than the sum of your confirmation biases.


>( '.)

marcistar
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Post Post #702  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 30, 2021 7:30 pm

In post 690, StrangeMatter wrote:Also. no time? Are you kidding me? The game went up until only a couple minutes before Prism’s stated deadline left in deadline and you’re saying I didn’t give him enough time to do something but I’m seriously wondering if you’re ignoring that even happened and used it as shade.

it was shade, i wont lie.
one of my strong beliefs is that I want to give everyone the chance to actually play, and cabd wasn't given that chance. :cry:

In post 692, Greeting wrote:Inb4 the scumteam is MegAzumarill and ProHawk. This isn’t newbie play. They weren’t town PR hunting, they just wanted to kill two birds with one stone and simply got lucky while doing it.

I think that theres at least 1 SE as scum yeah, but im not too sure if two rn.
im fine with the poe of <<strangematter, prohawk, meg azuramarill>> for now, but it does seem awfully easy so im worried about that.
i think like... i developed a bias by accident about prohawk. so i'll wait until he comes in and talks a bit.
i do have *some* idea of where we could possibly be reading wrong, but sometimes games are just easier then expected.

In post 695, MegAzumarill wrote:Independent of the nightkill I want a Greeting elim on long discussed grounds. I don't think their play matches them as town and there's always the whole PT think prism likely died over.

Prohawk aftee my catchup would be the most likely partner for Greeting. After their exchange with prism it looked townie at first, but looks more like forced cluelessness as scum digging deeper.

the notes pt thing is stupid imo.
you thinking its now prohawk x greeting reads weird rn imo, since idk if u were even thinking about it originally, but then after i brought up the possiblity it seemed like u thought it was an op idea.

- :good: -

:yawn: what happened to people wanting to look into me more today?
what happened to survey says prohawk is mafia :yawn:

MegAzumarill
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Post Post #703  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 30, 2021 7:45 pm

At what point did I say it was between prohawk and greeting?
Prohawk/greeting are the most probable solve, but even then the odds aren't good.

I'm looking at the other suspects as we go about this lim. But eliminating a scummier player is always better on the chance they are town. Others may rise to the occasion though
Always remember that you are more than the sum of your confirmation biases.


>( '.)

ProHawk
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Post Post #704  (ISO)  » Wed Dec 01, 2021 12:38 am

Okay, so initial thoughts before I dive too much into the workings of today...

From my POV, I don't think that Prism projected much into making herself a night kill based on role-hunting although I have always been terrible at finding crumbs left behind so I could be wrong, but also her play also wasn't trying to avoid the limelight which usually comes from VT not power town. It's therefore my conjecture that she died because of being a strong town-voice which only scum-knew at the time.

That narrows down a suspect or potentially both to being those who had her as strong town-reads that would be difficult to sway from.

Strange definitely had Prism as town based off a quick ISO which would fit that profile.

Meuh actually fits that profile as well, a pretty solid town read on Prism the entire D1.

Marci was kinda vague on her read of Prism, or anyone really to be honest from what I recall... She did mention thinking that Prism *might* be scum.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Cape didn't really strongly town-read Prism, although towards the end she was on the higher end of their reads list. Also, if Cape wanted to push me as the elimination target today, he could have easily left Prism alive to help with that.

Greeting obviously wanted Prism to be eliminated...

Meg voted Prism

In post 368, Prism wrote:I'm going to try to work back over Greeting's wallreads and my read on marcistar today, so someone poke me if I don't do that by end of today.

Right now, ordered T->S, I'm at:

Meuh -> marcistar -> Cape90 -> Meg -> AsuStuckey -> StrangeMatter -> Greeting -> ProHawk

I also need to revisit why I think Meg's improved, and hoping for more from the Asus replacement


This also likely played a factor in the decision. Players towards the end of the reads list would have more motive than players towards the front. A combination of the the hypothesis matches most closely with StrangeMatter.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I also know that both competing wagons D1 were town (you don't yet but likely will eventually). Which further fuels my theory that scum was stalling towards the end of the day. Cabd obviously flipped town, which left StrangeMatter.

I am going to start here for today:

VOTE: StrangeMatter

ProHawk
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Post Post #705  (ISO)  » Wed Dec 01, 2021 12:41 am

There is also the theory that I killed Prism in order to avoid that headache today, which is a completely valid hypothesis and would have absolutely considered it if I had been scum.

However, that would have made my fight more difficult today and not necessarily less as I would have to defend myself from that position, and well I will miss the back and forth with Prism even if it did get a bit heated, no hard feelings there at least on my end.

ProHawk
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Post Post #706  (ISO)  » Wed Dec 01, 2021 12:44 am

In post 671, Greeting wrote:So, since Titus was Doctor, we have a Cop and a Roleblocker (A1) or Tracker and a Rolecop (B3) left. Then again, I'm not sure what to do with this information either.

I absolutely hated the last minutes of Day One, but StrangeMatter did vote in the end and admitted being very nervous (). Not 100% sure that I'm buying it. But to be fair, if they weren't absent, they must have known that likely it was their vote that would decide the outcome of the game, so putting themselves out like this sounds like an illogical decision to make as scum. Or maybe that's really what happened and I just think they're more advanced than they actually are. :neutral:

There's someone else that's been irking me. MegAzumarill has been visibly absent, both in terms of posting and in terms of content they produce, in the last few days and it really stands out for me in light of their constant activity in N2081. I feel like I wrote them off sooner than I should have.

VOTE: MegAzumarill


Who the F is Titus? I've heard this name before but it's been a looong time.

Why are you role-fishing?

Why MegA and not Marci? She's actually been laying REAL low. In terms of actual posts, she has 35, MegA has 80 or so...

ProHawk
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Post Post #707  (ISO)  » Wed Dec 01, 2021 12:49 am

In post 684, marcistar wrote:why does it imply greeting but not imply prohawk :yawn:


.... :eek:

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Post Post #708  (ISO)  » Wed Dec 01, 2021 12:50 am

In post 686, marcistar wrote:why wouldnt greeting let prism live another day so that she can continue tunneling prohawk..? :yawn:
do u think prohawk x greeting or..?


This is why Cape is strong town for me... you on the other hand are pushing the issue which doesn't make you look so good.

ProHawk
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Post Post #709  (ISO)  » Wed Dec 01, 2021 1:00 am

In post 702, marcistar wrote:one of my strong beliefs is that I want to give everyone the chance to actually play, and cabd wasn't given that chance.


Good news is Cabd was a late-game replacement in which we didn't get an extension and it was over a holiday... so I'm sure even he wasn't so broken up about it. If I am being candid, we ran off a newbie because we all wanted to overwhelm the thread (I may be a bit biased as I invited said newbie to play) neither here nor there though at this point.

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Post Post #710  (ISO)  » Wed Dec 01, 2021 1:11 am

Here's my new reads list based on how things have turned out thus far I think...

T - Cape90, Meuh, Greeting, MegAzumarill, Marci, StrangeMatter - S

I think Cape90 as scum would have absolutely left Prism alive, there are two scums so it's possible that his partner talked him into it or he just didn't care, but I think he's town even though he's wrong about me and whatever meta evidence he pulled up that I didn't have time to go sift through.

Meuh although had motive to kill Prism, I like her scum-hunting process this game, doesn't feel scummy to me.

Greeting has some strange posts, but overall I feel like he's trying to actively figure this game out. The i've been framed take the start of this game feels like it's coming from town more than scum to me.

I'm not super sure about MegAzu, I am starting to feel a bit of opportunism coming from that slot.

Marci skated through D1, had motive to kill Prism, has started to be more active today but is taking really strange pot-shots while sitting on the sidelines.

StrangeMatter, I've spoken a bit at length why they are at the bottom of my reads list. I had preferred them for Elim D1 over Cabd but didn't have any support there.

Cape90
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Post Post #711  (ISO)  » Wed Dec 01, 2021 1:17 am

In post 705, ProHawk wrote:There is also the theory that I killed Prism in order to avoid that headache today, which is a completely valid hypothesis and would have absolutely considered it if I had been scum.

However, that would have made my fight more difficult today and not necessarily less as I would have to defend myself from that position, and well I will miss the back and forth with Prism even if it did get a bit heated, no hard feelings there at least on my end.

I think most of us have considered both those sides of the argument there

Datisi
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Post Post #712  (ISO)  » Wed Dec 01, 2021 3:14 am

vote count 2.01
with 7 votes in play, it takes 4 to make a decision. day 2 ends in (expired on 2021-12-07 07:00:00).

eliminationMegAzumarill [1]: Greeting
Greeting [1]: MegAzumarill
StrangeMatter [1]: ProHawk

not voting [4]: StrangeMatter, Meuh, Cape90, marcistar


mod notes~ one two seven three


flavourImage
I will straight up disregard all reason if you have a PR dream again. You can come back and be like, “I dreamt that Locke is a N2 Bulletproof Multitasking Cop and Self-Targeting Doctor,” and I will go, “Okay, Locke kill it is then.” ~Menalque

Meuh
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Post Post #713  (ISO)  » Wed Dec 01, 2021 8:10 am

VOTE: MegAzumarill

Still think it’s in ProHawk/Meg/Strange, maybe Marci ig? I’ll need to reread Meg’s more recent posting but I think the way ProHawk said it fits well, “opportunistic”. I have a hard time believing the entirety of the wagons late on day 1 (ProHawk, Strange, Cabd) are town, so I think this is Meg paired with one of ProHawk or Strange.

There are some things pointing towards Greeting scum but the overarching trend with Greeting’s posting radiates townie energy. I think reading too deep into the Prism kill could be a bad idea and can easily get in WIFOM territory, there’s reason for anyone alive to have killed Prism here

ProHawk
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Post Post #714  (ISO)  » Wed Dec 01, 2021 11:30 am

In post 711, Cape90 wrote:I think most of us have considered both those sides of the argument there


I'm most confident that you are town today...

Let's see some more meat from you please.

StrangeMatter
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Post Post #715  (ISO)  » Wed Dec 01, 2021 11:39 am

Alright I'm back, going to catch up.
Trying my best. Failing miserably, then trying again. Rinse and repeat.

StrangeMatter
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Post Post #716  (ISO)  » Wed Dec 01, 2021 12:04 pm

In post 706, ProHawk wrote:
In post 671, Greeting wrote:So, since Titus was Doctor, we have a Cop and a Roleblocker (A1) or Tracker and a Rolecop (B3) left. Then again, I'm not sure what to do with this information either.

I absolutely hated the last minutes of Day One, but StrangeMatter did vote in the end and admitted being very nervous (). Not 100% sure that I'm buying it. But to be fair, if they weren't absent, they must have known that likely it was their vote that would decide the outcome of the game, so putting themselves out like this sounds like an illogical decision to make as scum. Or maybe that's really what happened and I just think they're more advanced than they actually are. :neutral:

There's someone else that's been irking me. MegAzumarill has been visibly absent, both in terms of posting and in terms of content they produce, in the last few days and it really stands out for me in light of their constant activity in N2081. I feel like I wrote them off sooner than I should have.

VOTE: MegAzumarill


Who the F is Titus? I've heard this name before but it's been a looong time.

Why are you role-fishing?

Why MegA and not Marci? She's actually been laying REAL low. In terms of actual posts, she has 35, MegA has 80 or so...


Why does a number of posts actually matter? Really it should matter when those 35 posts someone has aren't easily readable then it becomes an actual problem. But this just feels kind of lazy shade to put on an inactive person for just being less active, not because you can't get a good read on them from a lower post count.
Trying my best. Failing miserably, then trying again. Rinse and repeat.

StrangeMatter
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Post Post #717  (ISO)  » Wed Dec 01, 2021 12:08 pm

I swear if my past mistakes in ending something early haven't made it clear why day 1 was so long, then I don't know what to tell you about that stalling part other than right now I just never want to end the day with too much time left when that's happened to me multiple times, on-site and off-site.
Trying my best. Failing miserably, then trying again. Rinse and repeat.

StrangeMatter
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Post Post #718  (ISO)  » Wed Dec 01, 2021 12:12 pm

In post 693, Meuh wrote:
In post 692, Greeting wrote:Inb4 the scumteam is MegAzumarill and ProHawk. This isn’t newbie play. They weren’t town PR hunting, they just wanted to kill two birds with one stone and simply got lucky while doing it.

You're both saying it's the other with ProHawk... you should unite and vote ProHawk! :lol:


@Greeting I checked the post you said pointed towards Mueh being townie, but....I don't quite get this logic? Kind of want to know why you think what they said comes from town I mean.
Trying my best. Failing miserably, then trying again. Rinse and repeat.

marcistar
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Post Post #719  (ISO)  » Wed Dec 01, 2021 3:20 pm

In post 704, ProHawk wrote:This also likely played a factor in the decision. Players towards the end of the reads list would have more motive than players towards the front.

so u have a motive to kill her? :eyes:

In post 706, ProHawk wrote:Who the F is Titus? I've heard this name before but it's been a looong time.

titus. shes nice :good:

In post 706, ProHawk wrote:Why MegA and not Marci? She's actually been laying REAL low. In terms of actual posts, she has 35, MegA has 80 or so...

its true that i ~prob~ have a low post count compared to others, i haven't checked how much i have rn, but thats usually just how i play. i could easily spam the thread and raise my post count, but i prefer to just respond in one post to a bunch of stuff if i can.

if anyones curious abt what i think, just ask me cuz usually its just me asking questions when i find somethings off/when im confused and i dont make cases unless i feel like i need/want to :good:

In post 707, ProHawk wrote:
In post 684, marcistar wrote:why does it imply greeting but not imply prohawk :yawn:


.... :eek:

hmm..?

In post 708, ProHawk wrote:
In post 686, marcistar wrote:why wouldnt greeting let prism live another day so that she can continue tunneling prohawk..? :yawn:
do u think prohawk x greeting or..?


This is why Cape is strong town for me... you on the other hand are pushing the issue which doesn't make you look so good.

Image
uhh can u explain this more..? how does this make cape strong town for u when this post was about you and greeting :sob:

In post 709, ProHawk wrote:If I am being candid, we ran off a newbie because we all wanted to overwhelm the thread (I may be a bit biased as I invited said newbie to play) neither here nor there though at this point.

aa we scared them??? let them know im sorry later okay? :cry: i wanted to help them get into the game more i feel so bad.

In post 710, ProHawk wrote:Marci skated through D1, had motive to kill Prism, has started to be more active today but is taking really strange pot-shots while sitting on the sidelines.

whats pot shots mean here..? (i wont deny im "sitting on the sidelines" tho :lol:)
i like the rest of that post ( :

[) from strangematter i like.

- :good: -

VOTE: megazurmarill

Meuh
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Post Post #720  (ISO)  » Wed Dec 01, 2021 3:58 pm

UNVOTE:

Meuh
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Post Post #721  (ISO)  » Wed Dec 01, 2021 3:59 pm

I don’t like having anyone on E-1 at the moment

Marci why did you vote Meg?

MegAzumarill
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Post Post #722  (ISO)  » Wed Dec 01, 2021 4:10 pm

I am not the lim today.
This game is pretty much solved from my perspective.

Meuh and Cape are almost definitely town.
Prohawk is not s/s with marcistar.

I am town.

Therefore we have 5 scumteam options: Greeting with strange, prohawk, or Marci.
Or strangematter with Marci/prohawk.

A Greeting into strangehawk lim guarantees we make it to d4 at least. If I get limped we likely lose lylo
Always remember that you are more than the sum of your confirmation biases.


>( '.)

ProHawk
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Post Post #723  (ISO)  » Wed Dec 01, 2021 4:34 pm

Why are we all trying to solve the game today? Let's just eliminate most likely to be scum and go from there??

MegAzumarill
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Post Post #724  (ISO)  » Wed Dec 01, 2021 5:18 pm

Also the push on me on the grounds of opportunism is so bad it's almost laughable for 2 reasons.

1. I've been on greetings case since d1.
2. There would be not one but 2 easier Mislims for me to push if I was scum. These being strange or prohawk. Even if one would be my partner why wouldn't I get the other killed if I wanted a free townie dead.

Maybe provide an actual valid reason if you want to wagon someone to e-1. The wagon on me formed very quick over me pointing out the obvious, it almost definitely has some scum in there. I'll analyze it shortly
Always remember that you are more than the sum of your confirmation biases.


>( '.)

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