Newbie 2085 - Game Over

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #438 (isolation #0) » Thu Dec 23, 2021 3:29 am

Hello, I go by Tejate and this is my first game of forum mafia although I've played the game in real life and in online circles for many years. I actually already did a full readthrough of this thread as soon as I signed up for replacement and have started preparing my notes and thoughts on the current gamestate, but before that I have an important question I need to ask to WINfried.

In post 93, WINfried wrote:You'd make an epic door-to-door salesman.

UNVOTE: Binatog13

What exactly was your motivation for this back in post 93? Do you recall?

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #441 (isolation #1) » Thu Dec 23, 2021 6:40 am

While I'm waiting on WINfried's response...

fferyllt you were waiting for the replacement for Binatog, right? As I recall you seemed pretty confident this slot was scum.

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #444 (isolation #2) » Thu Dec 23, 2021 7:33 am

I want to give myself a fighting chance here since my predecessor kinda threw the game into chaos very quickly. Although I highly doubt I will get voted today, I think it is in my best interest to share what I think sooner than later.

Townie McTownerson

WINfriend --- In my opinion, the single most townie looking player here and it's not even close. They have been extremely active, they only seem to be playing on wagons they actually have confidence in instead of dogpiling on someone else's opinion, and they seem to be genuinely trying to make a serious contribution. I know it's just a day 1 read, but if this flips scum I will be genuinely shocked.

Town-leaning

frogsfrogs --- It seems like a good portion of the players here have a similar attitude towards frogs as I do to WIN. While I agree that their behaivor thus far has been fairly pro-town, I don't like the look of their voting pattern too much. They have been on and off several wagons already, and that is a slight hangup for me. Other than that, this is pretty much at the bottom of the list of people I would want to vote for today.

Neutral Town-lean

Save the Dragons --- This is probably going to be one of the most controversial takes on this list given the topic of discussion just before I started posting. While I do agree some aspects of StD have been suspicious (particularly the lack of explanation for their reads until hard pushed), overall I do not feel like this is enough to condemn him one way or the other. While I think WINfried's SvS theory on you two is interesting, I'm not sure I entirely buy it. It seems like it would be a rather wasteful play to attempt on day 1 if you were both scum. That aside, I think their play overall has not been significantly anti-town, and while I don't necessarily believe they are town I don't think I can say in confidence I would vote them right now.
MegAzumarill --- This has yet to post, so I'm going to wait until they do and give my opinion again. hunterr at the very least seemed pro-town for the most part, despite some questionable arguments they were immediately prepared to become active off the bat as soon as they replaced in. While it's certainly true that a scum is capable of preparing statements before swapping in, I'm going to give this the benefit of the doubt for now and say it leans more likely to being town.

Neutral

fferyllt --- And, perhaps the other controversial take here. To be quite honest, I believe there is a high chance of this situation being TvT or TvS rather than the theorized SvS. While I do agree that some of her reactions in later posts have been a bit off kilter for my tastes, I am a bit concerned by the seeming dogpile/tunnel forming here. Even Binatog didn't get dogpiled this quick. One problem I -do- have is how suspicious Taly was when they were in this slot, so I can somewhat understand the knee jerk reaction. I just don't subscribe to it.
Not Known 15 --- I'm going to be honest, when I was reading Prism's posts before they dropped out I was at a complete and total loss as to their alignment. And I still am even with the swap. I can't tell if it was an intentional play by this slot's predecessor, but if it was hats off because I genuinely cannot tell if this was a scum play or a town play. I understand the concept of being an unofficial town leader to help guide a weaker town in the right direction, but the problem I have is that scum is just as capable of exploiting this. Not Known's behavior hasn't really helped me form a strong read on this either, so I'm going to wait til day 2 and re-evaluate. Assuming they don't get voted, anyways.

Neutral Scum-leaning

ahllo --- This is mainly here for me for two primary reasons: Meteor Tome's odd voting patterns, and ahllo's lack of posts here. As I recall, one of the few points ahllo has brought up recently are that WINfriend and Binatog (me) are maf team, and while I can see -how- a town would come to this conclusion (they specifically mentioned it seemed a bit staged), I don't feel like I have enough info to say that it was actually a town mindset that brought this conclusion. I would like to see them post more, and there's a good chance I bump this up in the future, but for now I can't really justify putting it in neutral.

Scum-leaning

Laplacian --- This is a really interesting case to me because I could just as easily see this being town, but some things stick out to me when I look back at their posts thus far. Firstly, the Binatog situation. Now, I'm not going to defend my predecessor here, they essentially made an extremely baffling play by soft-claiming PR, refused to elaborate, and then left. However, the sheer length of time they kept on that wagon seemingly without considering an alternative when it was clear Binatog had no intention of talking or risk of getting voted stands out as a red flag to me.

I don't have any hard scumreads quite yet. But my suspicions are mainly on Laplacian, ahllo, and Not Known 15, in roughly that order. I have not yet decided on who I will vote on yet, and I would like to see more posts from those people as well.

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #446 (isolation #3) » Thu Dec 23, 2021 7:56 am

That is correct. I can see how it could seem kinda forced, but from what I've seen of the players so far I think that's just how they type.

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #449 (isolation #4) » Thu Dec 23, 2021 8:40 am

The other things for me are just small manners of demeanor which have a high likelihood of not meaning much of anything. I realized this, removed that part of my post, and then forgot to remove "firstly", so that's my bad.

If you want to know, though, one other thing that stuck out to me was the use of humor. While I do not think it is at all usual to use humor at the start of a game (in more rapid fire mafia setups between friend groups I often claim scum at the start as a joke, for example) but I also believe that humor can be a strong tactic for scum as it can give something of an excuse for fluffposting. Ultimately it's not the main reason he's in the list, so I omitted it. There were some other things, but I can't really put it into words. Just general demeanor I picked up on a little bit.

The important thing here I want to state is that I don't buy that two experienced players would collude to soft-bus eachother on the very first day. For one, this is something that very easily backfires, and for two StD said himself that newbie games often have players that are experienced outside of the site.

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #461 (isolation #5) » Thu Dec 23, 2021 1:56 pm

Well, we still have a good few days, granted both of them are going to be Christmas. I'm still not really convinced to want to vote into the fferyllt/StD conflict. I don't want to, but I will if it's necessary to not end the day in no elim.

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #463 (isolation #6) » Thu Dec 23, 2021 2:03 pm

I doubt the Laplacian wagon will go much of anywhere at the moment, so I would be more than comfortable with voting for my second best guess. So comfortable, in fact, that I'll just do it right now.

VOTE: ahllo

I'll move my vote elsewhere if necessary for elim or if I'm convinced, but at the moment this is in my opinion the person that needs to make their case the most.

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #465 (isolation #7) » Thu Dec 23, 2021 2:23 pm

That's my biggest hangup with eliminating him to be honest, and that is why I am encouraging him to make his own case. But for now, I am fine with my vote being where it is.

Also, it slipped my mind to note but this actually brings him up to E-3.

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #466 (isolation #8) » Thu Dec 23, 2021 2:41 pm

Also, in regards to 450 I think this take is completely fair. I have been following the thread in one large chunk at a time up until around page 16-17, so I'm sure I could have skimmed over something important. I will do some more reading later.

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #473 (isolation #9) » Fri Dec 24, 2021 12:01 am

Not to butt in on frogs and Not Known's conversation, but I need to work on my reads for you in particular. If I may ask, when you said this in post 472

1. Pocket
Pocketing means that scum tries to get townread by someone. Basically someone they want to keep because their reads are bad.
Here, Laplacian literally says that they like fferyll'ts reads and thats the reason for the townread after having scumread the predecessor. That's no good reason, but pocketing.

Are you insinuating that you believe Laplacian is scum and fferyllt is town?

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #475 (isolation #10) » Fri Dec 24, 2021 12:21 am

Understood, thank you. I'll note this down. I think our reads as far as those two go actually fairly closely align. I almost want to eliminate you right now to see if I'm on the right track or not.

Jokes aside, I'm not sure if ahhlo has seen my vote yet but I would like to put more pressure on them. Currently, they are at E-2 with 3 votes. Who's up for putting them at E-1?

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #482 (isolation #11) » Fri Dec 24, 2021 7:46 am

Responding to 476:

Tejate replaces Binatog13 and immediately tries to get a bus rolling on me, the guy most suspicious of his slot already. How convenient...
Also, "when it was clear Binatog had no intention of talking" is flat out wrong. It's easy to say that looking back, but it took several days of many people wanting answers before it was clear he was staying quiet. As for alternatives, again, the game was quite slow. Lots of people going inactive and getting replaced means less conversations overall, and the timer is stretched even longer with your new batch. While I could have hopped on some of the big Taly or Hunterr wagons, I never saw any evidence decisive enough act on

I'll be completely fair to you, I can completely understand your initial impulse to vote and had I been in from the start I would have been on that wagon ASAP. When I first started reading this thread and looking out for posts of replacement slots, I was kind of dreading the very likely prospect of getting this one, but the longer the case went on the more I thought this was most likely just a dumb townie gambit. I obviously can't prove that I thought this before I knew which slot I was swapping into, you're just gonna need to take my word for it.

I think the case in your rebuttal is fair, but personally I would have probably dropped the case sooner than later. While Binatog's lack of action this game does not make me very happy, there's not much they really could have done in the case against themselves aside from ignoring it entirely as several users pointed out. Confirming they have a power role would surely get them targeted, and confirming they are vanilla town gives the team's roleblocker someone to ignore. Assuming he was actually scum, it also gives the cop someone to target. There was pretty much nothing he could have possibly said about his own case that could have gone over well for him. The best move would have been to not make that """play""" in the first place, but hindsight is 20/20 I suppose.

I also find it interesting that you seem fine with putting ahhlo to E-1 when they have a very real risk of getting hammered. As I mentioned in my reads list, I could very easily see you being town but you were the player I had probably the strongest doubts about from what they posted, rather than what they didn't post. I still think you, Not Known, or ahhlo would be a fine elim since we either get a scum out or we get a good amount of information. I would -really- like to see ahhlo make a case, but it seems like there's a pretty high chance of them just getting hammered as it stands.

Also I will probably be busy for most of the day for obvious reasons, but feel free to ask anything and I will reply as soon as I am able.

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #486 (isolation #12) » Fri Dec 24, 2021 8:37 am

I was actually just about to come back and ask if anyone had reservations about the current wagon. I have no problem with waiting a bit before we properly decide to hammer, so I'm not particularly disappointed in fferyllt holding off. That being said, I will be concerned if they actually do not want to hammer ahhlo period without explanation after putting them as one of the only people below the arbitrary line. I want to be clear that I do not have fferyllt as town in my list, I have her as neutral. I still think this wagon has the highest chance of getting us information and getting a scum out of the game, which is the ideal situation for town here. I just want to make it clear that I'm not necessarily opposed to eliminating her.

That all being said, does anyone else have a problem with the wagon on ahhlo?

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #498 (isolation #13) » Fri Dec 24, 2021 1:35 pm

Are you sure you're in the best of mindsets to play mafia? This is kinda just natural progression of the game. Myself and several other people have not-town read on this slot. I vote you for pressure and encourage E-1 because we haven't heard from you, like at all. You need to be ready for situations like this if you're gonna play my man.

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #501 (isolation #14) » Fri Dec 24, 2021 1:48 pm

I mean, I'm not backing down from my vote here but given their posts in lobby chat I think they might genuinely be not in the best state for a game like this.

I'm not taking my vote away, just saying.

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #504 (isolation #15) » Fri Dec 24, 2021 2:41 pm

I'm going to go out to Christmas Eve dinner in a moment, so I want to leave off with a point of discussion before I go.

We are at the point where we need to begin consolidating our votes, and it seems like some of you are still skeptical about both the fferllyt and ahhlo wagons. Now would be the time to start suggesting and discussing other possibilities.

You all have a good night, and ahhlo please don't take the votes as a personal attack. They are not.

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #538 (isolation #16) » Fri Dec 24, 2021 5:12 pm

Well, I'm back from dinner and I probably won't be on long but this has been interesting to read. I'd figure activity would have died down after my post, but it seems like the exact opposite has happened. Well, this is very interesting.

UNVOTE: ahhlo

I'd like to see some more arguments before I proceed with my vote. It seems like the 3 wagons currently are ahhlo, Meg, and ffery if I'm not mistaken, though the latter wagon seems to be dead at this point. So really just ahhlo and Meg.

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #546 (isolation #17) » Fri Dec 24, 2021 5:26 pm

I kind of agree with Meg on this. If I was scum and ahhlo was town, I would most certainly not kill them on night 1. A lot of people seem to still be nervous about their alignment.

I am going to go to bed early tonight and for obvious reasons I will not be available early tomorrow. If anyone has any questions for me specifically, please say so and I will get to it as soon as I am able. I am looking forward to reading tomorrow's thread.

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #556 (isolation #18) » Fri Dec 24, 2021 5:35 pm

I really don't know what to say. If you got the impression that we hated you from accusations in a game based upon accusations, then maybe mafia is not for you. Voting is not a personal attack. We're not your therapist. You need to either accept that, or you need to go. You are clearly not having fun.

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #562 (isolation #19) » Fri Dec 24, 2021 5:42 pm

I'm saying I think you should go because you are clearly not in a mindset to play mafia. I never once said I hated you, nor have I suggested you be banned. You are projecting those qualities onto me.

I am saying you shouldn't play because you are having a pretty shitty time. It is clearly not working out for you. We cannot help you. I'm almost certain that we do not have any licensed therapists in the thread, nor do I really want to clog up the thread with hammy advice like "you have so much to live for". We can't be your reason to live for you. We're all just internet strangers here.

So I'm sorry if that offended you, but I genuinely do not think you are going to have much fun continuing the game as is if you genuinely want to kill yourself.

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #566 (isolation #20) » Fri Dec 24, 2021 5:49 pm

You can't keep posting like this in a mafia thread forever man. Once again, we cannot and I really want to emphasize, CANNOT help you. It is not a thing that is going to happen.

I cannot in good conscience coddle you about this. I have been through some rough times for myself, and at the end of the day it's down to you. There is nothing here anyone can possibly say to give you a reason to live. That's on you. You are the one who needs to make a decision. No one else can make that for you.

I know I'm going in circles talking here but what else can I possibly tell you?

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #570 (isolation #21) » Fri Dec 24, 2021 5:55 pm

you dont understand social anxiety at all, its not up to me

i tried my best but OTHER PEOPLE ARE THE PROBLM

its OTHER PEOPLE that attack me and ignore me and avoid me and refuse to be nice and be friends with me

ive done nothing wrong, because of my SA no one wants to have anythign to do with me[/quote]

No. It isn't. Again, I'm not going to coddle you. If you post like this frequently in other threads that is more than likely -why- you are getting banned.

WE ARE NOT YOUR THERAPISTS. WE ARE NOT YOUR LIFE COACHES. WE ARE RANDOM STRANGERS ON THE INTERNET WHO MET FOR THE PURPOSE OF PLAYING MAFIA.

You need to accept this now. If you cannot, there's nothing more I can say.

I absolutely refuse to speak any further on this topic. Again, I have had tough times myself but you can't just force your problems onto strangers.

I will not post about this again.

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #582 (isolation #22) » Sat Dec 25, 2021 5:46 am

Alright I'm not going to be available for a while, but that vote actually seriously shakes my convictions on your slot. I had hunterr as a potential townread but I'm starting to have doubts about you.

Can you explain in detail why you chose to vote for frogsfrogs, considering that almost everyone here has them read as town-leaning at minimum? Is this OMGUS or do you actually have a good reason for this vote?

You're at E-2 at the moment if I'm not mistaken and this vote is something concerning. As I mentioned in my original reads post, frogsfrogs is among the last people I would vote for based off of today's info.

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #583 (isolation #23) » Sat Dec 25, 2021 5:51 am

Furthermore, why abandon the wagon on ahhlo? The ffery wagon has clearly lost its wheels, and you initially seemed very confident in the ahhlo wagon. I know this is a bit hypocritical considering I unvoted (for the moment), but I do think the wagon still has potential even if people don't seem exactly thrilled about our current options. Why try starting a wagon on someone who is clearly not going to get voted regardless of whether they are truly pro-town or not?

Especially on someone getting hard read as town, with little explanation for the push.

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #591 (isolation #24) » Sat Dec 25, 2021 8:16 am

In post 586, MegAzumarill wrote:Do you think I would actually go after a widely townread player as a desperation move as scum?

There are much better moves and don't even go to WIFOM.
I'd really rather not claim and out a pr/make scum easier to find them.

I think you misunderstood my concern here. My concern is that you chose to go for a wagon that has no chance of getting voted when we are approaching the deadline. Now is the time we should be thinking about who should actually be voted, rather than voting to put pressure on a player. I don't even necessarily hard-read frogs as town, as I stated in my original post. I'm just quite surprised that that's where you chose to put your vote so close to deadline. This isn't WIFOM.

Also, note that I haven't actually voted you, I'm just concerned over the sudden left field vote with no explanation. I agree that their wagon hopping is a hang up for me (again, I said as such) but it's not enough for me to want to go right to a day 1 elim on them.

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #593 (isolation #25) » Sat Dec 25, 2021 8:28 am

Continuing to spam an ongoing game with unrelated discussion is not going to help your case. If they aren't responding to you directly, why would they respond to public posts in a newbie game?

I'm not trying to be mean, but my stance on this issue is firm. This is not a thread for you to vent in or beg moderators in. Despite what you have said about this being other people's fault, given your present behavior I sincerely doubt that is actually the case. Please take this elsewhere. I'm not repeating myself again.

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #594 (isolation #26) » Sat Dec 25, 2021 8:32 am

To be honest, I'm starting to suspect this might not even be genuine given how some of your posts are worded. I actually just checked up on the thread you were banned from, and you literally just said "I HATE CHRISTMAS" followed by a sentence long rant about how you hate other people hanging out with their friends. And you have the audacity to complain that you were unfairly removed from the thread? Either you are a troll, or you need serious help.

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #595 (isolation #27) » Sat Dec 25, 2021 8:47 am

No. Just stop. You cannot blame this behavior on social anxiety. Social anxiety does not make you barge into a thread of people wishing eachother a Merry Christmas to talk about how you hate Christmas. It does not make you incessantly spam the creation of threads or flood games with irrelevant posts. It does not make you blame others for all of your misfortune. It does not make you threaten suicide to a group of complete strangers. You can't blame your toxic behavior on "everyone hating me for no reason" forever. I've been down that exact road before, which is why I can't definitively call this a troll, but I'm not going to play your game.

Shape up or ship out.

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #597 (isolation #28) » Sat Dec 25, 2021 9:18 am

Agreed, and I apologize for contributing to the off topic posts. I just can't stand this sort of behavior.

Back on topic, I would really like to hear Meg's response to my 592.

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #598 (isolation #29) » Sat Dec 25, 2021 9:25 am

As a secondary topic since Meg likely isn't on right now, even if we are most likely not going to up frogs today I would like to discuss the main reason for suspicion currently surrounding them for myself and Meg: the fact that they have been on several different wagons they didn't start. This was even pointed out by someone else earlier in the thread, though it will take me a bit to find the exact post number. What are your guys' opinion on this matter?

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #606 (isolation #30) » Sat Dec 25, 2021 10:27 am

In post 604, frogsfrogs wrote:I'm happy to discuss my votes so far if needed, but I think I've been pretty clear about who I'm willing to lim and why. Are there vote hops of mine that actually seem unexplained or opportunistic?

There was no vote in particular that jumped out to me, I just took note of it in general. Maybe I'm misjudging because I'm used to shorter games, but I find that scum can often win by just rapidly switching targets.

As I said, I have no intention of voting against you today. I'm actually starting to feel kind of doubtful of my own suspicions with Meg agreeing... am I playing third maf here?

I thought I felt very convicted with my wagon on ahhlo, but these past two days have given me quite a lot to think about.

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #612 (isolation #31) » Sat Dec 25, 2021 10:40 am

I kind of wanted to avoid a situation where we aren't all scrambling before the deadline, but it seems like that's what's gonna happen, huh? What wagons are even viable at this point?

I am not going to hop on a wagon for frogs, WIN, StD, or ffery. These in my opinion are either bad votes, or dead wagons for day 1.

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #625 (isolation #32) » Sat Dec 25, 2021 11:38 am

While I'm certainly not ruling the possibility of WIN and frogs being scumteam, that is far too gambit-y for my tastes for a first round elim considering I have them both read as pretty pro-town. I would be okay with a NK15 elim because it seems like other players are SRing them while I'm just here having trouble discerning their alignment thanks to Prism's posts.

NK15, Laplacian, ahhlo, and maybe Meg are the ones I would most likely wagon on as it stands.

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #627 (isolation #33) » Sat Dec 25, 2021 11:42 am

Hey, I don't have much confidence in that theory at all. Just saying I'm not ruling it out. For the record you're still at the top of my town list.

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #628 (isolation #34) » Sat Dec 25, 2021 12:05 pm

I gotta admit though, it would be pretty fucking cool if you guys were mafia together.

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #630 (isolation #35) » Sat Dec 25, 2021 12:13 pm

I kinda want to win my first game here, but I'm just saying if I lost to a team of you and WIN I wouldn't be disappointed.

On a more relevant note, I don't think that Laplacian wagon is going to happen today. And while ahhlo wagon is still viable I think, I feel like a lot of people aren't excited to vote for it.

That brings our realistic wagon options down to NK15, Meg, and ahhlo. Am I mistaken about this or does that sound about right?

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #633 (isolation #36) » Sat Dec 25, 2021 12:23 pm

Yeah, I noticed. I myself am having doubts despite having pushed that to the forefront.

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #655 (isolation #37) » Sat Dec 25, 2021 2:16 pm

To be honest, I'm surprised I haven't really been scumread yet considering no one here has actually seen me play scum. I wonder if this is more because of the Binatog situation or something else.

Also, regarding that "Amished" play, that is something interesting although I'm not sure how well it would apply in practice. Then again I might be biased because I criticized Binatog's play a bit in one of my initial posts.

As for the vote, I'm still gonna need some time to think about this. Give me like an hour and I'll decide on my wagon. I really do not want to end with a no elim after all of this discussion.

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #661 (isolation #38) » Sat Dec 25, 2021 5:43 pm

I've thought about this for a fair while and to be honest, I'm concerned that I haven't really been able to make my mind. I feel like I want either the ahhlo slot or the Meg slot flipped. That's the best I can narrow it down.

How much longer do we got?

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #662 (isolation #39) » Sat Dec 25, 2021 5:48 pm

Just in case, I'm doing this now.

VOTE: MegAzumarill

E-1.

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #665 (isolation #40) » Sat Dec 25, 2021 5:57 pm

To be perfectly honestly, I'm super torn between the two. I initially had hunterr as townread but as I stated in recent pages, I am concerned about certain aspects of Meg. Also, if Meg flips scum we know that ahhlo slot is likely town. It could also be telling about Laplacian since they were on ahhlo's wagon as well.

I am still fine with ahhlo wagon, but my opinion on viability has changed and I know we should actually hammer soon.

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #667 (isolation #41) » Sat Dec 25, 2021 6:02 pm

I think that's fair, and like I said I am more than willing to switch my vote. It is just that in my opinion, those two would be the best flips right now. But then again we also have different reads.

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #673 (isolation #42) » Sat Dec 25, 2021 6:14 pm

UNVOTE: MegAzumarill

That's unfortunate.

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #680 (isolation #43) » Sat Dec 25, 2021 6:19 pm

I also nearly forgot, welcome T3. I was so caught up in this mess that I forgot to greet you.

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #685 (isolation #44) » Sat Dec 25, 2021 6:23 pm

Prism I still think was by far the hardest person to get a read on in this entire thread. I get the impression that they probably play scum and town similarly.

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #690 (isolation #45) » Sat Dec 25, 2021 6:27 pm

I think frogs said they were on E-1, and I was too tired to check. Did we get a claim from Meg for no reason?

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #695 (isolation #46) » Sat Dec 25, 2021 6:32 pm

I am a fool, an absolute buffoon. I miscounted. I should have just stuck with my gut.

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #697 (isolation #47) » Sat Dec 25, 2021 6:35 pm

Actually, he did. That was the main point of contention with Binatog's vote.

He breadcrumbed tracker in a different game where he was scum and hard claimed it later (it did not do him any favors)

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #700 (isolation #48) » Sat Dec 25, 2021 6:39 pm

This is still not good though Meg, for there to be a doctor if I'm not mistaken there has to be a roleblocker. We may not be in the best of spots.

Also, to T3, the main reason the Binatog vote was retracted was actually the same argument that sparked it: since they watched it fail horribly as scum, they were much less likely to do it again as scum.

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #719 (isolation #49) » Sat Dec 25, 2021 7:29 pm

Indeed, many replacements.

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #729 (isolation #50) » Sat Dec 25, 2021 7:50 pm

It's okay, I'll be the fall guy for this one. I should have gone back and checked the numbers myself.

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #731 (isolation #51) » Sat Dec 25, 2021 7:59 pm

I mean you are one of the more controversial slots for today. Regardless, I'm looking forward to seeing a fresh perspective on the game tomorrow. Goodnight everyone, I hope you all had a lovely Christmas.

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #733 (isolation #52) » Sat Dec 25, 2021 8:10 pm

I say that we all softclaim PR and have Binatog situation 2. Who's with me?

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #751 (isolation #53) » Sun Dec 26, 2021 11:41 am

These last few pages seem to really be devolving into he said, she said. I think we're running out of content. I do think 751 is worded interestingly, given this post earlier.

435:

<snip>
I don't beat the drum and proclaim myself town in games. I trust my alignment to shine through my posts, and I believe that it's shining through in this game. That's all I can do. The rest is up to town to see it.

This isn't really a hard tell in my eyes, but it did set off a bit of an alarm bell for me.

I guess we do still have time to figure out a final wagon, although I'd rather get to do day 2 sooner than later. T3, do you mind if I ask for a short list of your reads and explanations for them? Once you're done catching up.

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #757 (isolation #54) » Sun Dec 26, 2021 12:30 pm

I still don't really like how fast the ffery wagon came in initially, but at this point maybe it is best if we just get her flip. Again, not excited for this, but if we really need to hammer I'll do it.

I still have her read as neutral.

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #758 (isolation #55) » Sun Dec 26, 2021 12:30 pm

In post 757, MegAzumarill wrote:Fferylit reads town to me.

Also, elaborate.

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #760 (isolation #56) » Sun Dec 26, 2021 12:35 pm

As much as I don't like Meg's contributions so far, I think that wagon is pretty much dead for today. And it's not like any PRs are going to CC at this point unless they happen to get pushed for E-1 (or fake E-1, sorry Meg). It's desirable for a PR to stay hidden today.

I would be fine with NK, since I still find them to be difficult to read.

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #762 (isolation #57) » Sun Dec 26, 2021 12:49 pm

Sa'll good, I think we're all a bit frazzled right now. I came into this game feeling calm, collected, and confident and now all of my convictions are just gone. Except for town reading WIN, still pretty sure he's town.

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #763 (isolation #58) » Sun Dec 26, 2021 12:58 pm

Are newbie games usually this hectic with replacements? Tbh I expected a standard role list like this to be a little calmer.

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #768 (isolation #59) » Sun Dec 26, 2021 1:23 pm

In post 444, Tejate Raichu wrote:
Townie McTownerson

WINfriend

Town-leaning

frogsfrogs

Neutral Town-lean

Save the Dragons
MegAzumarill

Neutral

fferyllt
Not Known 15

Neutral Scum-leaning

ahllo

Scum-leaning

Laplacian
<snipped reasoning for space, check OP for details>

Townie McTownerson

WINfriend --- If this is scum, they are doing a great job of sheeping me. No, really, great job. You are a shepard, and I am but your humble lamb. Lead me to the slaughter if you are scum. Still pretty sure it isn't, and there is 0 chance I vote this today.

Town-leaning

frogsfrogs --- My opinion on this is much the same as before. Still some minor concern but it's not enough to instigate a vote from me.

Neutral

T3 --- Replacement for ahhlo, will re-evaluate as they give more details. I bumped this up partially because of that, but moreso because the speed of ahhlo's vote concerned me a little. Then again this is a widely SR'd slot.
NK15 --- I still genuinely have trouble reading this slot. Willing to elim if only for info. They do seem to agree with some of my reads, but that doesn't realistically mean they aren't scum.
fferllyt --- Still not loving the StD + fferyllt SvS gambit. Will still vote if necessary.
StD --- Starting to love the TvT idea for this conflict a little less, bumping down to neutral. Still seems confident that ffery is scum.

Neutral Scum-leaning

Laplacian --- I know this is one of my most controversial takes, but this still bugs me a little. They brought ahhlo slot wagon to E-1, that's pretty much the main bit of new info I can gleam off of them. Is that they were willing to put ahhlo to E-1. Bumped because I'm feeling a bit less confident in my reads overall. I still have my eyes on this, but I think the chances of a D1 wagon are very low.

Unranked

MegAzumarill --- No. Just no. Not touching this slot with a 10 foot pole today.

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #776 (isolation #60) » Sun Dec 26, 2021 4:22 pm

I didn't expect it to blow up over Christmas either but everyone's had quite a bit to say shockingly.

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #780 (isolation #61) » Sun Dec 26, 2021 4:55 pm

In post 780, Laplacian wrote:Okay, Meg's frogs vote was a bad wagon, but cop claim has no cc sooo town they are for now. That reveal was a mess though.

I think this makes the bin/Tejate slot even more scummy. Two game layouts (A1 and A3) have a cop. A1 is cop + doc, A3 has an extra VT. Going back to my post 56, this means option #1 is even less likely as there's only a 50/50 chance of a 2nd townie role existing.

How exactly does this make me scummy? For one, there is 0 chance a cop gets CC'd on day 1 without E-1 pressure regardless of whether or not the claim is false. That is absurd.

For two, I don't recall ever claiming a role, nor do I recall Bina doing so outside of his softclaim "play". What exactly are you implying?

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #781 (isolation #62) » Sun Dec 26, 2021 4:57 pm

If you want to push me as a potential wagon today, do it. But I'd like to hear a good reason for it, and that does not strike me as one.

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #785 (isolation #63) » Sun Dec 26, 2021 5:09 pm

At least we're agreed on that much. I don't think you would be a viable wagon either, even though I am suspicious of you. I still think I'm not confident enough in my read to say for sure this argument this slot and yourself have been having since essentially game start isn't TvT, but I'm going to keep you in mind if I survive the night. As I said, if I were from the get go I would have been on that wagon with you and WIN.

As for wagon viability, while I'm not terribly excited about it maybe we should just vote StD or ffery. This conflict has gone on for quite some time, and I'm losing a bit of confidence in my TvT theory. Perhaps it's time we just take the gamble, many of the other wagons have lost their wheels.

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #787 (isolation #64) » Sun Dec 26, 2021 5:41 pm

VOTE: Save the Dragons

Agreed frogs. Even if I end up dying night 1 I'll be happy to see this game move forward. I can't imagine how the people who were here at the start must feel.

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #790 (isolation #65) » Sun Dec 26, 2021 6:32 pm

Well if he's not elim'd I guess he can catch up over the night.

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #791 (isolation #66) » Sun Dec 26, 2021 6:40 pm

Regardless, since we are rapidly running low on time, I want unvoted players to decide on a wagon. Now.

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #795 (isolation #67) » Sun Dec 26, 2021 6:55 pm

ffery, you still haven't voted yet. Have you decided on a wagon? Here, I updated the vote list to reflect the changes.

fferyllt (3) - Save The Dragons, WINfried, Not Known 15
Save the Dragons (2) - frogsfrogs, Tejate Raichu
T3 (1) - Laplacian
frogsfrogs (1) - MegAzumarill

Not Voting (4) - T3, fferyllt

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #811 (isolation #68) » Sun Dec 26, 2021 7:39 pm

Are you implying you have some suspicions about frogs being a possible scum?

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #814 (isolation #69) » Sun Dec 26, 2021 7:44 pm

Well, this might be the last time any of us currently in the thread have a chance to discuss it before we have to hammer and one of us possibly dies at night, so I say we continue this avenue while we wait for the others to think about their vote.

I did mention I was suspicious of their voting pattern, but that might be me seeing shadows where there aren't any. I've seen plenty of town with scuffed voting patterns. This is interesting, though.

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #819 (isolation #70) » Sun Dec 26, 2021 8:01 pm

Speaking of things we didn't really want to speak about with others around, does anyone else feel a little bothered by the wording of this post?

In post 778, Laplacian wrote:Okay, Meg's frogs vote was a bad wagon, but cop claim has no cc sooo town they are for now. That reveal was a mess though.

I think this makes the bin/Tejate slot even more scummy. Two game layouts (A1 and A3) have a cop. A1 is cop + doc, A3 has an extra VT. Going back to my post 56, this means option #1 is even less likely as there's only a 50/50 chance of a 2nd townie role existing.

I'm not concerned by the consideration of role slots here, that is natural as we have a cop claim. I am not concerned by the consideration of me being scum, I think that suspicion of me is natural and expected, especially since I have no games on record here and I doubt I've played with anyone ITT elsewhere.

What does bother me here is that this wording. It feels like they're assuming that I am either VT or scum, but doesn't that seem off to you guys? We have not yet confirmed if the cop is even real. In fact it seems like Meg still has suspicion even if they're essentially untouchable for today's vote. So why, I ask, did they make this assumption? Is that really an assumption from a town mindset?

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #820 (isolation #71) » Sun Dec 26, 2021 8:03 pm

I want to add that this is not a claim. But this post strikes me as something not entirely in earnest.

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #823 (isolation #72) » Sun Dec 26, 2021 8:15 pm

I think there are 3 possible angles to consider here.

1) Laplacian is scum and MegAzumarill is cop. In this case, if he knew that scum is Mafia Goon + Mafia Goon, that would both hard confirm Meg as the real cop and by process of elimination confirm the role list as having no other special town roles. Therefor, by proxy, I would be vanilla town. They could then use this information against me with that earlier post.

2) Laplacian is scum and Meg is his partner. Meg claimed as they thought they were E-1 with intent to hammer (again sorry for misreading the votes) to buy themselves an extra day. In this case, depending on the role list he would want to throw suspicion on me to push me for claim later as depending on which scum there are, the roles for town could potentially be powerful and with my activity he possibly suspects I am one of them. Therefor it is desirable to "read meg as town" for now to push this on day 2.

3) Laplacian is actually town. In which case I think he is making a grave error in judgement by automatically trusting Meg's claim.

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #825 (isolation #73) » Sun Dec 26, 2021 8:30 pm

WIN, can I get your opinion for this matter? I understand that Meg is essentially untouchable for voting today, but Laplacian seems to be acting as if Meg is untouchable from suspicion as well. Do you not find this unusual?

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #831 (isolation #74) » Sun Dec 26, 2021 8:43 pm

I just can't see any other explanations except what I detailed in 823:

He's either trying to get good town points for believing the cop, he's protecting his partner by trying to push another, or he's outright naive about Meg's claim. Do you guys understand now why I have a problem with how Laplacian words some of his posts?

I am open to other interpretations here before Lap himself inevitably responds, but I genuinely can't see this being anything else.

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #832 (isolation #75) » Sun Dec 26, 2021 8:44 pm

In post 828, fferyllt wrote:Welp. I've saved a response to 825 to drafts for now.

I feel like this is winding down with a bunch of unanswered questions that may get lost in the day-end shuffle.

Agreed. Maybe it would be in our best interest to compile everything we've talked about in this these last couple hours into a post to refer back to later, so it doesn't get lost into the ether.

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #838 (isolation #76) » Sun Dec 26, 2021 8:55 pm

Wagon on frogs day 1 actually real? Well I'll be damned. This is one of the players I thought would be least likely to get more than one vote on them.

My vote isn't going to change for now but... interesting.

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #854 (isolation #77) » Sun Dec 26, 2021 9:28 pm

In post 841, Laplacian wrote:
In post 819, Tejate Raichu wrote:Speaking of things we didn't really want to speak about with others around, does anyone else feel a little bothered by the wording of this post?

In post 778, Laplacian wrote:Okay, Meg's frogs vote was a bad wagon, but cop claim has no cc sooo town they are for now. That reveal was a mess though.

I think this makes the bin/Tejate slot even more scummy. Two game layouts (A1 and A3) have a cop. A1 is cop + doc, A3 has an extra VT. Going back to my post 56, this means option #1 is even less likely as there's only a 50/50 chance of a 2nd townie role existing.
I'm not concerned by the consideration of role slots here, that is natural as we have a cop claim. I am not concerned by the consideration of me being scum, I think that suspicion of me is natural and expected, especially since I have no games on record here and I doubt I've played with anyone ITT elsewhere.

What does bother me here is that this wording. It feels like they're assuming that I am either VT or scum, but doesn't that seem off to you guys? We have not yet confirmed if the cop is even real. In fact it seems like Meg still has suspicion even if they're essentially untouchable for today's vote. So why, I ask, did they make this assumption? Is that really an assumption from a town mindset?

In post 822, fferyllt wrote: That's a good point. Not only have we not confirmed if the cop is real, Laplacian has Megs as "untouchable today".
I'm not automatically trusting the cop claim. It's easy to claim cop, especially day 1 with no intel. But with no counter-claim, of course I'm not going to go after Meg today unless we get extenuating evidence or a Sherlock Holmes level argument. Taking me not joining a wagon and somehow extrapolating that to 100% believing their claim is a gross mischaracterization.

Now, to be clear, whether someone 100% believes or is still somewhat suspect of Meg's cop claim, neither of those makes the softclaim from Bin less suspect. There's only room for a max of 2 town roles, and unless you 100% ignore Meg's claim, the existence of a claim must naturally means less odds of other claims. I'm already sus of your slot because of the softclaim. I trust it less now, because even a 10% chance of Meg's claim being accurate means less space for you to be townie and thus more chance the softclaim was a scum gambit gone wrong.

Let me clarify here, I was not agreeing with fferlyt there. I am using untouchable to refer to the fact that a wagon on them is essentially a lost cause today because of that claim. I do not think you not being on the wagon for Meg is inherently suspicious, nor do I think you proclaiming you won't vote for them today is, I did not say as such nor did it even cross my mind at the time of making post 819.

What I was implying is that your confidence on the matter of Binatog's play being AI because the idea that I am a power role is out of the question seems to imply that one way or another, you have insider information. Whether that be Meg being the only PR (because they claimed and it's goon + goon) or trying to rolefish me because you know Meg isn't PR. The only way you could have enough information to be confident on either of these is if you were scum. That doesn't necessarily mean that's the only world where you are comfortable with being confident in this claim, but it seems like it is more likely to come from a scum mindset than not.

I do not think there is anything necessarily unusual with distrusting the unCC'd cop in a more slow paced game like this. Sure, if we were playing Town of Salem where every investigative role is forced to claim on the first real day or gets hung upon claiming I would find it an extremely scummy choice. But it's obvious we won't get a CC today, and I think there's enough unusual here to warrant that.

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #856 (isolation #78) » Sun Dec 26, 2021 9:40 pm

Anyways good lord this game has been chaotic. I thought a frogs wagon was off the table but now I'm starting to think all bets all off. I hope we can move to the night phase with an elim we're actually happy about.

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #860 (isolation #79) » Sun Dec 26, 2021 9:56 pm

Assuming that frogs was scum, I highly doubt their partner would be Meg or ffery.

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #861 (isolation #80) » Sun Dec 26, 2021 10:02 pm

But if Meg isn't scum, the outcome of tonight is that either Meg dies or Meg survives and gets roleblocked, assuming neither Mafia nor Doctor WIFOM their night actions.

So realistically I'm not sure how much soft-clearing Meg would -actually- help.

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #864 (isolation #81) » Sun Dec 26, 2021 10:22 pm

In post 863, frogsfrogs wrote: <snip>

This is pretty much exactly what I said yeah. WIN seems to really like his gambit flips, which I can respect to a degree, but all of this essentially relies on them flipping scum. I want something where we can get realistic info even if they're town.

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #865 (isolation #82) » Sun Dec 26, 2021 10:25 pm

Ideally yes, our flip today is Mafia Roleblocker and it is a Doctor game and Meg is actually confirmed cop and everything is sunshine and roses. But we can't just vote on the hope that we have the best case scenario happen.

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #867 (isolation #83) » Sun Dec 26, 2021 10:32 pm

I just realized that if frogs is actually scum I am totally third mafing right now. Regardless, I do not think this is a worthwhile flip that will realistically clear or put suspicion on anyone important. Not today, anyway. Unless you can think of other people that frogs' flip will help to shed some light on, I am not at all convinced to vote this. I don't think this is a good vote, does that make me scumbuddies with frogs if they flip maf?

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #869 (isolation #84) » Sun Dec 26, 2021 11:02 pm

I'm gonna go hit the hay now, I got pretty excited by the amount of activity tonight and perhaps got a bit carried away. Before I sleep though, I am going to re-iterate that I'm going to need to hear a better reason than potential Meg clear (which would only happen if frogs is scum, and isn't even valuable if it's double goon unless goons WIFOM) if I'm going to be swayed to vote them.

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #873 (isolation #85) » Sun Dec 26, 2021 11:41 pm

Actually, something occurred to me as I was about to go to sleep so one last post. I see one other possibility other than that's been presented where Laplacian's accusation is coming from a town mindset. That will stay in the drafts for tomorrow, though. Assuming I live that long.

Beyond that, I'm keeping my vote on StD for now. Goodnight for real, everyone.

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #937 (isolation #86) » Mon Dec 27, 2021 6:51 am

First of all, WHAT ON EARTH IS GOING ON IN THIS GAME ANYMORE? The twists, man. The turns.

UNVOTE: Save the Dragons

Second of all, I'm inclined to strongly agree with this post.

In post 907, WINfried wrote: <snip>

With this in mind, I do not want to move forward on a gamble. Unless NK or Meg lied and are VT for no reason, we have absolutely no reason here to not vote one of them today. Blood for the blood god, I say. Now the only question for me is which one because quite frankly neither of you have very much gravitas with me as it stands.

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #939 (isolation #87) » Mon Dec 27, 2021 6:54 am

In post 936, MegAzumarill wrote:If one of us is nked it's better than limming wrong

This post gives me extremely bad vibes. Neither of you will be night killed now. Maybe before when your death (assuming you're real cop) was likely, but now it just gives town a free day that could be used to take the elim for day 2 off of themselves. Logically speaking it makes far more sense for town to get one of you out now and we already have a very good idea of the game state within just 2 days.

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #941 (isolation #88) » Mon Dec 27, 2021 6:57 am

Furthermore, what does ffery lim actually prove about Meg's alignment? Are we positive that proves much of anything compared to just getting a scum out 100% of the time?

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #944 (isolation #89) » Mon Dec 27, 2021 7:00 am

The bottom line is, I see literally no reason for NK to lie here. For what, to get a cop out? Is it really worth doing that at E-5 knowing you're putting your own life on a timer?

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #947 (isolation #90) » Mon Dec 27, 2021 7:05 am

No no, let's look at this logically using the only possible role list (as I assume NK was actually claiming cop and not simply CCing PR). This play makes NO SENSE as scum because of what I described earlier. If it's roleblocker + goon, they just roleblock you and hunt for the doc. If it's goon + goon, they just kill you. There is NO REASON to WIFOM these night actions regardless of your actual alignment, so we can assume these to be true. CCing cop on day 1 makes absolutely 0 sense from a scum perspective given the role list.

VOTE: MegAzumarill

The fact that you seem to be very concerned with the order makes me very concerned with your alignment.

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #953 (isolation #91) » Mon Dec 27, 2021 7:09 am

This play is meaningless as scum because

the cop is functionally useless right now anyways

. That is why I can only see NK15's play as in earnest. And one thing you should know about me Meg: I hate follow the cop.

I'd vote for you twice if I could.

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #958 (isolation #92) » Mon Dec 27, 2021 7:13 am

In post 956, WINfried wrote:VOTE: MegAzumarill

if they flip town, NK15 and fferyllt can go down next and we win the game.
If they flip scum, we can solve the game with fferyllt still around which might give us some valuable input.

Eliminating fferyllt right now is motivated in scum looking for a consolation prize, which doesn't mean a townie can't be advertising the same thing. But not a big surprise that Meg is.

This resonates. If Meg flips town, the game is pretty much nearly solved anyways. What do we actually get from ffery's flip that we don't get in spades from yours?

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #961 (isolation #93) » Mon Dec 27, 2021 7:16 am

Then who's wagon are you on today?

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #968 (isolation #94) » Mon Dec 27, 2021 7:22 am

I would certainly hope it's not scenario D, as that'd just be straight up throwing the game. There is no reason for a VT to CC town PR here, and NK does seem aware of this fact. That's a lot of two letter acronyms.

I'm a bit surprised you're on your own wagon here. Selfless to be sure, but I'm not convinced that it's wholly necessary.

Before we continue with the discussion, I'd like to ask that

any PRs besides doctor or jailkeeper

reveal yourselves now. If this is some baffling play by any mix of VT or scum, it's better we know now.

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #973 (isolation #95) » Mon Dec 27, 2021 7:25 am

I honestly can't blame her. I had them as neutral and they were rapidly sinking into scum territory for me up until that play. I'm sorry, but it just looks unmistakably townish.

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #976 (isolation #96) » Mon Dec 27, 2021 7:28 am

In post 971, fferyllt wrote:
In post 968, Tejate Raichu wrote:I would certainly hope it's not scenario D, as that'd just be straight up throwing the game. There is no reason for a VT to CC town PR here, and NK does seem aware of this fact. That's a lot of two letter acronyms.

I'm a bit surprised you're on your own wagon here. Selfless to be sure, but I'm not convinced that it's wholly necessary.

Before we continue with the discussion, I'd like to ask that
any PRs besides doctor or jailkeeper
reveal yourselves now. If this is some baffling play by any mix of VT or scum, it's better we know now.
I have mixed feelings about this.

That's fair, but we already have way more information than we probably should for day 1. If these two are both fake claims, isn't it better that we have that information on the table for the entire rest of the game than the potential that we find something at night? I suppose it can wait a day if there's any real PR to CC, but...

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #982 (isolation #97) » Mon Dec 27, 2021 7:33 am

Remember when I said they were untouchable? My my, how time flies.

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #985 (isolation #98) » Mon Dec 27, 2021 7:34 am

Not just E-1 frogs, E-1 WITH INTENT. Blood for the blood god!

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #990 (isolation #99) » Mon Dec 27, 2021 7:37 am

That's fair, and I doubt we will actually see a PR CC. I don't think NK would be VT giving a baffling cop claim like this given this post, they seem aware of how catastrophic that would be.

In post 908, Not Known 15 wrote:
In post 905, MegAzumarill wrote:Claiming at E-5 apparently isn't premature
Just for all who believe this BS...
counterclaims are obviously not the same as normal claims.

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #992 (isolation #100) » Mon Dec 27, 2021 7:38 am

Not fake claiming, fake-counterclaiming as town. A move that is strictly suicidal.

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #996 (isolation #101) » Mon Dec 27, 2021 7:42 am

We have 9 hours to make our decision, by the by.

Tejate Raichu · Post Post #997 (isolation #102) » Mon Dec 27, 2021 7:43 am

I'll move to ffery's weird self wagon if we can't hammer, but again I don't feel it necessary.

Tejate Raichu · Mon Dec 27, 2021 7:46 am

Goddamn, we really hit 1k posts on day 1. Wild.

Tejate Raichu · Mon Dec 27, 2021 7:51 am

@Not Known 15

Just to be absolutely sure here, you are aware how disastrous this will be if you are VT right? This is probably last chance you'll get to retract your claim.

Tejate Raichu · Mon Dec 27, 2021 7:54 am

Much, much earlier, you said this.

In post 640, fferyllt wrote:I think you underestimate the appetite for my elim.

I think at present you may be overestimating the appetite for your elim.

Tejate Raichu · Mon Dec 27, 2021 8:13 am

I still think that it's entirely possible that if by some miracle, both NK15 and Meg survive today and it is double goon game, they will actually not kill. At this point with one of you having to be fake I think scum may consider it worth the risk of being caught out right now in order to push for one more day of potential miselim. If one of them is being caught out anyways, it's good to stall for more bodies right?

Tejate Raichu · Mon Dec 27, 2021 8:50 am

In post 832, Tejate Raichu wrote:
In post 828, fferyllt wrote:Welp. I've saved a response to 825 to drafts for now.

I feel like this is winding down with a bunch of unanswered questions that may get lost in the day-end shuffle.
Agreed. Maybe it would be in our best interest to compile everything we've talked about in this these last couple hours into a post to refer back to later, so it doesn't get lost into the ether.

Damn, I never got to make that post I said I would. If I don't make it, could someone do this tomorrow?

Good night town. And good luck.

Tejate Raichu · Mon Dec 27, 2021 8:52 am

And remember, if this flips town, stick to the plan. Do not let NK15 weasel his way out of elim.

Tejate Raichu · Wed Dec 29, 2021 4:20 pm

I prepared this message overnight, and I wanted to be the first to post today.

Well, I think that this flip has kind of shaken an already very wacky game. But let's not clog up the thread with how we

feel

about this play, as while I'm sure you all have thoughts on it is ultimately irrelevant to the topic at hand and can be saved for after the game. That being said, with this lengthy post, let me make one thing absolutely clear to all of you: My vote will not be moving. We do not have to hammer right away and I welcome discussion, but I am not unvoting or voting someone else. I will not hear any move for claim retraction. NK15 is clearly aware of what a counterclaim entails, and they would not have pushed a wagon if they were Mason for reasons that should be obvious.

VOTE: Not Known 15

If you are VT, then you basically threw the game for yourself, but I will be acting as if you understand not to CC there as town, which I will trust because you literally said that you do. Now, next order of business. As roles reveal on all deaths, the mason does not need to claim yet, as a counterclaim from scum right now would be at best misguided. While I have my guesses, I do not desire to hunt for the Mason today and I suggest you all keep your opinions to yourself. This all being said, I do believe it would be in our best interest to look into

people that were on the Meg wagon

first.

Now, the rest of what I have to post on this first post of day 2 will be a bit sporadic. As such, I think in the interest of readability it would be in my best interest to use spoilers. There are a few Day 1 posts that we made in the hours before the end of the penultimate game day I would like preserved for future reference.

Spoiler: Beginning of Discussion/WIN's suspicion of frogs

Spoiler: Me getting bad vibes from Laplacian again

Spoiler: Laplacian's response to the above and ensuing discussion

Tejate Raichu · Wed Dec 29, 2021 4:23 pm

Let's move forward proceeding as if NK15 is confscum, if they are town then we're already in a pretty terrible position no matter what. Like I said, I will not listen to

any

move for a retraction. I want NK's blood today.

Happy scumday by the way, ffery.

Tejate Raichu · Wed Dec 29, 2021 4:26 pm

It shows the cake even if it's your first day signing up. I saw it with /in'd to the newbie queue, and I kind of assumed that's what it was for.

Tejate Raichu · Wed Dec 29, 2021 4:37 pm

Back on topic of recent events, this is why I said I had such a hard time reading Prism's slot and were they still at the helm I think I'd still find difficulty here. I've played enough mafia to have taken control of the conversation at both ends, as both scum and town. I can't just look at someone being super active, pushing topics, asking questions and say "this is town" because I know from experience how well this can work as scum.

Tejate Raichu · Wed Dec 29, 2021 4:55 pm

If NK isn't a scum flip then we've pretty much lost the game. I hope to god this wasn't some insane play.

Just something to add to the conversation here since I think it's best to roll with the assumption of confscum, I have in my notes that at some point NK15 scumread Save the Dragons and Laplacian. I should have probably added page number links, but I'll figure out a better system for notes later.

Tejate Raichu · Wed Dec 29, 2021 5:24 pm

In post 1009, frogsfrogs wrote:<snip>

Thank you for this by the way, and I'm starting to become somewhat inclined to agree. I'm getting the feeling that the near constant push against ffery may well have been a deliberate scum push to divert from actual conversation.

Not to totally rule out the possibility of them being actual scum, but the discussion surrounding their slot is starting to appear more and more manufactured... Now, we can certainly vote ffery on day 3 if you guys still think there's a case, but I would like to bring up what I think should be the main topic of discussion today since it is clear who we should get day 2.

Who should we get day 3?

Who is suspicious, given that this is most likely scum? I'd like to mainly focus on people for today who were on Meg's wagon as I find it likely that they would have voted with NK15, as it was clearly becoming the elim for the day. Minus NK15 and WINfried's corpse, that is

frogsfrogs, Laplacian, and Tejate (myself)

. Do note that Laplacian was consistently "scumread" by NK15 over trivial reasons. While I have certainly had doubts about them myself, I am not yet certain if this was genuine shade in an attempt to getting elim or a soft bus in an attempt to throw suspicion off.

Do any of you have an issue with this particular topic, or shall we discuss the three on Meg's wagon for now?

Tejate Raichu · Wed Dec 29, 2021 5:55 pm

I agree. I'm leaning towards him not being town though, as I highlighted (and you can look at their ISO as well) they clearly understand why a counterclaim like this as town would be absolutely absurd. And they sure as hell ain't Mason.

Tejate Raichu · Wed Dec 29, 2021 6:03 pm

In fact, this is the one thing I will say today about the Mason's identity. I do not think a single person on the Meg wagon is a Mason. Laplacian wouldn't hammer, frogs wouldn't put them at E-1, and we know for a fact that WIN is not the second Mason. If you take a look at the sample PM, there is no indication of post restrictions (only being able to use PT at night), so that would mean that everyone on the wagon was either VT or scum without a shadow of a doubt. If I'm wrong, then there are so many things wrong with this game state right now.

That being said, let's not indulge any further in discussion of who is or is not the Mason. The reason I want to group us 3 together is that I feel safe knowing that Mason won't be forced to claim at E-1 tomorrow.

In post 1050, fferyllt wrote:Tejate who do you think was pushing me in a way that diverted from actual conversation?

As for this, I'm not sure and I'd need to do some light (i.e. heavy) reading. There was quite a bit of discussion around your slot even before you replaced in.

Tejate Raichu · Wed Dec 29, 2021 7:21 pm

Then he voted me citing that I misquoted him. Which is fair. I didn't go back and check for who had posted "untouchable", but I remembered the word when someone else (Tejate, I think) mentioned it. As it turned out I had used the word in reference to my hunterr read which was a 2nd tier town grouping with Laplacian.

That was most likely me, and sorry if that got you in trouble. I was using the term to refer to the fact that they were unlikely to get voted without a CC, which was objectively true at the time that discussion was happening. Perhaps there's a better term for it, but I couldn't really think of one.

There's no getting around the fact that Not Known counterclaimed at the precise point in time to derail my wagon from going through. :/

This is probably my biggest concern about you right now, but in the case of NK15 + ffery scumteam I find this to be

baffling

. The only case I can think of where this happens is you are Mafia Roleblocker and he's scared of the cop claim. But even then, why? How does that actually help? By throwing himself under the bus at the precise moment he gets himself killed, and you as well. While I'm certainly willing to vote you at some point just in case, I really do not understand what was going through his head at all, regardless of what your faction is. I do not want to be caught with my pants down if this was some bizarre self sacrifice to entrap you while his partner deepwolfs.

Not Known and Megs were both lying. They were both giving off scummy vibes with the lies.

At the very least I can see what Meg was going for, but fake claiming as town is risky if you can't do it convincingly. He was going for a survival play. Assuming there was Goon + Goon he was as good as dead, but if it was Goon + Roleblocker that would imply the existence of a doctor in the role list thereby drawing the night kill away from what would otherwise be a secured Mason kill. Obviously, it didn't work out in this case but to be honest if Meg had come off less scummy in general he probably wouldn't have been made to claim at all. hunterr was a fairly strong townread to me, and then Meg's play kind of completely made me do a 180 on that read.

Tejate Raichu · Thu Dec 30, 2021 1:45 am

To be fair, I did accidentally put them at fake E-1. I'd say that would be hard to tell.

Tejate Raichu · Thu Dec 30, 2021 12:00 pm

In post 1060, Save The Dragons wrote:probably {NK, Laplacian} but not super sure about the second one, but I don't think NK15 is town here

What's giving you scum pings about Laplacian? He was one of the three I wanted to see discussion about.

Tejate Raichu · Thu Dec 30, 2021 12:06 pm

The two biggest things I want to add right now is that Laplacian did seem to go for a lot of low hanging fruit as described by ffery in 1053, and in fact despite the argument that has been essentially going on non-stop between our slots they have actually agreed with my reads and voted on the same wagons more often than not. Obviously, agreement doesn't necessarily make you town, and in fact if Laplacian is scum then I find it kind of concerning.

The other thing is that, if you take a skim through NK15's ISO they have pretty much non-stop been on Laplacian's case for the past couple of days. Do you think this is theater between two scum?

Tejate Raichu · Thu Dec 30, 2021 2:02 pm

I think it can only really be to our benefit to discuss today. ffery is the most obvious choice for a Day 3 elim, but we should explore other possibilities. I mainly want to focus on Tejate (myself), Laplacian (you), and frogsfrogs as the chances of any of us 3 being Mason are pretty much completely out the window. Unless you want to suggest that you are a Mason who hammered your partner?

Tejate Raichu · Thu Dec 30, 2021 3:36 pm

In post 1067, fferyllt wrote:
In post 1052, Tejate Raichu wrote:As for this, I'm not sure and I'd need to do some light (i.e. heavy) reading. There was quite a bit of discussion around your slot even before you replaced in.
Have you made any progress on this front?
...

Not yet, I've been busy with games (that are not mafia) at the moment, but I'll start reading up proper tomorrow. I don't think you're quite in danger yet, so we still have some time to discuss your slot.

Tejate Raichu · Thu Dec 30, 2021 10:55 pm

Maybe that would be for the best. Mafia would have to be pretty foolish to kill either of us Night 2 anyways, seeing as we're potential suspects. Who's on board with speed 'limming NK15, seeing as they effectively just confessed to being scum? We can continue this topic tomorrow.

Tejate Raichu · Thu Dec 30, 2021 11:02 pm

I think maybe we should just prepare our cases for discussion over the two day waiting period. Especially those of us least likely to be night killed.

Tejate Raichu · Fri Dec 31, 2021 10:15 am

I'm gonna start reading on ffery discussion now since it seems like we haven't really resolved on a decision yet. Do any of you have any questions for me while I'm around?

Tejate Raichu · Fri Dec 31, 2021 10:22 am

Also I'm surprised to say it considering how hard I was pushing their slot but... I feel like T3 is most likely town. In fact, I feel like the original ahhlo wagon likely had at least one scum on it. It would have been a pretty easy mis-elim had it not been stopped.

Tejate Raichu · Fri Dec 31, 2021 10:24 am

Incidentally, checking back, guess who were the 3 people on that wagon excluding the dead (Meg)?

Yep. Myself, frogsfrogs, and Laplacian, the exact 3 people I wanted to discuss. Although I believe frogsfrogs pulled out before either of us.

Tejate Raichu · Fri Dec 31, 2021 11:30 am

I have other reasons for suspecting that T3 is town, but I would rather save that for tomorrow. It'll be in the drafts.

Tejate Raichu · Fri Dec 31, 2021 11:38 am

In fact, I most likely won't post an updated reads list today. We'll have time to discuss reads on day 3, and I see no reason to spill my spaghetti right now. Do you have a problem with grouping us 3 together, by the by? Do you suspect the second mafia is someone outside of the Meg voters?

Tejate Raichu · Fri Dec 31, 2021 12:32 pm

In post 1092, frogsfrogs wrote:1*

Tejate, not really! I think that's the best pool to be looking at right now. I just dread to stick to that and lose to game to like, a T3 who we never even looked at.

That's fair, I just think that for now it would be in our best interest to leave the slot alone.

In post 1094, fferyllt wrote:My only issue with hammering now is that I probably won't have much time for homework until Monday.

I'm a bit torn as well, but I guess we'll see if it gets hammered sooner or later. Have a good new years either way, everyone.

Tejate Raichu · Sat Jan 01, 2022 1:52 pm

Don't worry, that's fine. I think you might have already spewed too hard anyways, so I'm not really interested in seeing your fake reads list anymore.

Tejate Raichu · Sat Jan 01, 2022 2:49 pm

In post 1050, fferyllt wrote:Tejate who do you think was pushing me in a way that diverted from actual conversation?

Also, I started reading but I might actually abandon this idea because I have a more interesting one that I think might be more conducive to game solving, I'll let you know if anything pops out on this front, though. What I am looking at now is the differences in behavior between Prism and NK15. They both clearly have different playstyles, so this could be very telling of their partner.

In post 104, Prism wrote:Fine with my vote atm. Might swap to Binatog or Dragons. Not opposed to Laplacian/Meteor.

Only townlean is frogs but should review when I have more time
In post 74, Taly wrote:I'm not forcing it
Prism
, this game is denser than others in terms of posting rate relative to content.

Plus I've got my hands full with IRL work and other games

Expecting reads from me on various players by now is reasonable, and it's also reasonable to assume this post is some sort of deflection from solving as I've been accused of that before, but that's not what is happening.
I am concerned you're expecting me to townread resisting my pressure to vote, and I do not. What do you think of the "gamestate" at the moment, given its high density, low activity, and focus on a PR soft?
In post 74, Taly wrote:I think
Frogs'
suspicion of my posts being potential TMI was valid.
I do not think it was a TMI assertion in the sense that most of the site uses, see post 50. Can you be more specific?
In post 74, Taly wrote:Also,
Prism
, my initial read on you was more of a way to help me read you rather than a definitive statement. You seemed cautious about my townping on you but it doesn't register as a mafia cautious to me.
...Am I supposed to be cautious of a townping on me as mafia?

This post, for example, gives 4 potential options for elim very early in the game. While Prism does not strike me as the type to hard bus so early from what I've seen of their play, if they put their partner among those 4 it would be very easy to just sway the vote towards the other 3 later. They were also one of the first person to start piling on the "frogs is town" train, which isn't necessarily suspicious given that pretty much everyone was doing this early, but I feel it's good to note given they're a potential suspect.

If we compare with NK15's play, NK15 is a player that strikes me as someone who would absolutely hard bus this early, and they were tunneled on Laplacian for a bit...

Tejate Raichu · Sat Jan 01, 2022 5:22 pm

Who wants to hammer then? If we still want to do that.

Tejate Raichu · Sun Jan 02, 2022 11:30 am

Prism seems to throw suspicion at Taly very early on, that's probably my biggest problem with ffery lim. NK15, based on what I have seen of their play, I would not be even remotely surprised if they made the bizarre choice to bus scum ffery and then last second say "Oo ffery's town guys everyone look!". I still that kind of play is bizarre regardless of ffery's alignment but...

Tejate Raichu · Sun Jan 02, 2022 11:33 am

Prism, on the other hand, does not strike me as someone who would TMI or do bussing within the first couple of pages. I suspect they probably play their early game analytically, probably being the one of the first to post reads in a given game, keeping options open and maybe throwing a scum in there to distance just in case.

This can work primarily because it seems they like to direct the conversation, which as scum has the benefit of killing off topics that don't further your wincon. I'm not confident that NK would attempt or is even capable of such a play.

Tejate Raichu · Sun Jan 02, 2022 1:16 pm

In post 1131, Dwlee99 wrote:I'm actually shocked y'all limmed meg tbh btw

Honestly at that point Meg kind of made me question the good will I had put into hunterr's slot, and I was pretty much only not voting them because of the PR claim. I didn't trust NK15 much more to be honest, and I would have been fine with getting him the hell out. It's mainly that it was one for one and that I felt CCing cop there made no sense as scum.

Honestly now that we know it's scum, I'm still not entirely sure it makes sense. But I'll take a 1f1.

Tejate Raichu · Sun Jan 02, 2022 3:53 pm

I just realized that there are officially only 2 people who have been here since game start. This has been something.

Tejate Raichu · Sun Jan 02, 2022 6:52 pm

In post 1141, fferyllt wrote:
In post 1139, T3 wrote:
In post 1137, Tejate Raichu wrote:I just realized that there are officially only 2 people who have been here since game start. This has been something.
welcome to newbie games on ms
This is a little extreme even for newbie games on MS.

My crazy weekend has ended and I'm going to sleep.

I think it is worth staring at Prism's posts, and I'll spend some time reabsorbing her iso tomorrow. but it won't surprise me if she completely hid her intention.

I do think my initial assumption was correct that Prism seems to be skilled at obfuscating her alignment. That doesn't necessarily mean there's nothing we can gleam from her words, though. But we'll have time for that, and honestly I'm feeling ready to just drop the hammer and discuss on day 3.

Tejate Raichu · Sun Jan 02, 2022 6:53 pm

Speaking of which, just a reminder that NK15 is at E-1. Hammer whenever you want, I would but I'm one of the voters.

Tejate Raichu · Sun Jan 02, 2022 7:10 pm

The three people I wanted to discuss are almost guaranteed to not be Mason on account of being on the Mason's wagon. So if you want to discuss that, I think that should be pretty low risk.

Tejate Raichu · Mon Jan 03, 2022 10:10 am

Actually, it seems like you have one and only one read.

NK15 --- Scum

Tejate Raichu · Mon Jan 03, 2022 10:53 am

None here, I'll prepare a draft over the next 2 days. I don't want to spill my spaghetti yet.

Tejate Raichu · Mon Jan 03, 2022 12:58 pm

Only thing I want to say before we receive our flip, if this flips roleblocker then I really don't see much reason to suspect ffery. That is all.

Tejate Raichu · Thu Jan 20, 2022 9:17 pm

GG folks. This was extremely chaotic. But I'm glad we pulled through in the end.

Tejate Raichu · Fri Jan 21, 2022 10:37 am

I appreciate the scum commentary as well, even if you weren't here the full game. From what you did post, you gave me the impression of a strong player, which is a big part of why I just couldn't townbin you in good conscience.

In post 1440, Prism wrote:I've already been over it with her privately, but fferyllt's analysis of my partner interactions were mostly spot on. The only real point I thought she missed was that I didn't
want
to leave Meteor in the nullzone, but felt I had no choice. I thought my initial pivot off of them was very lacking, and wanted something better, but in the end had to settle and hope no one noticed. Again, I strongly considered bussing, which is
ridiculous
for a goon in column A.

There was one moment that I thought was particularly dangerous for scum:
In post 444, Tejate Raichu wrote:I'm going to be honest, when I was reading Prism's posts before they dropped out I was at a complete and total loss as to their alignment. And I still am even with the swap. I can't tell if it was an intentional play by this slot's predecessor, but if it was hats off because I genuinely cannot tell if this was a scum play or a town play.
This was very perceptive by Tejate. It was absolutely intentional to be a strong-but-nulltown voice. I found this dangerous because this was the hard part of nailing me as scum here. fferyllt had the easy part, the knowledge that I hang out in that nullzone exclusively as scum, and I was surprised when she missed it after Tejate pointed it out.

There is more to Tejate's point here, regarding activity, questions, etc, but that can be saved for future games. I wasn't particularly trying to towntell this game until hunterr joined, and the most flourish I really had was intentionally keeping Taly out of the game and capitalizing on his attention being elsewhere. I also intentionally made posts to Dragons that where the goal was to have him constantly going back and forth on my alignment, too, which was kind of funny.

Well played, because despite picking up on that I really could not tell if that's just how you usually play in your games or if you were scum obfuscating your own alignment. This game would have probably taken a very different course had you not replaced out. I might not have realized in time.

Tejate Raichu · Fri Jan 21, 2022 10:44 am

If nothing else, it sure caused a lot of confusion. I think it would have backfired on you much harder if Meg just admitted to being mason.

Tejate Raichu · Fri Jan 21, 2022 10:46 am

T3 slot was in general just in a very bad place at that time. Maybe not day 1 elim, but I doubt it would have survived til the end without intervention.

NK15 cc ---> Meg admitting he's mason ---> NK gets elim'd ---> only remaining scum slot is in a bad place in exchange for 2 confirmed town kills

Tejate Raichu · Fri Jan 21, 2022 10:53 am

Granted, I should have taken a closer look at the role list. I took both cop claims at face value, which was a big mistake on my part. I feel like most people other than Laplacian also did.