Newbie 2085 - Game Over

[fferyllt]

Greetings, Gentlebeings!

I've read through about page 6 so far and should be fully caught up in a half hour or so.

Page 6 reads:

Liking WINfried, hunterr and maybe Laplacian for town. Loving Hunterr's catchup.

I have a tendency to townread Prism on sight. Not so sure this time. I didn't like her post 50.

STD is hard to read, but his early joviality and his post 79 give me slight townvibes.

I don't like Meteor Tome's posts so far.

[fferyllt]

frogs might belong in my townpile too. I liked their 61 and 67

[fferyllt]

Page 9 some of my townreads are voting each other. :/

Binatog's 207 feels townish.

I don't like hunterr's 209. First post of his that I don't like. :/

WINfried's thoughts about frog in 215 also feel townish. Their 217 solve is interesting. I don't often see someone townbin all the SEs at once.

i certainly am not trying to aggravate anyone with my playstyle

i think prism is over the top and is doing too much to be "i am the townie this town needs, town with me" and it makes me wonder if she's just trying to take control of the game. It's not a huge scum read, more of an observation.

Is this meta-based, or something you'd think of any player with that stance?

How is this argument between Prism and hunterr supposed to work anyway; it seems both heated and trivial at the same time? Ultimately, hunterr's initial suspicion on Prism started with a few posts within the first 24 hours. (Now, not to sound like a broken record, but if we want to laser-focus on an early sus posts, how about we come back to Bin's softclaim that they yet again brushed off?)

To me, this whole debate on the last two pages between hunterr and Prism feels like they're both posting so much that there's more and more content to nitpick over and thus find anything you disagree with. Even if Prism is trying to become the town leader as Dragons postulated, I still think that's less suspicious than the relatively low content we've seen from some posters like Taly and Meteor. Really, I feel the same way about the push against hunterr: he's aggressive, but zeroing in on wording isn't sus, and he's thrown out a lot more comments and thoughts then just interrograting Prism.

Reads and their explainations are always good to post and share and I think there's some valid debate here, but I can't help but feel both pushes are distracting us from more important conversations and analyses.

Did you think this was intentional? A side-effect of getting into it this way? something else?

gut

heh

The irritability I feel in Prism's page 9 posts have a townvibe.

taly is null

who is meteor

Well, dragons & meteor aren't on the scum team together

eh. you may be right, but this is not an assumption I feel is justified by the post you quote.

I like the enthusiasm in frog's 237

Prefacing this with a grain of salt that my reaction to these posts may be colored by their culminating in a vote on my slot:

Frogs and Winfried are town. For reasons see 215; that Winfried saw that also makes them town, along with their solving.
My predecessor seems to have tunneled on hunterr. That scumcase was not good. Hunterr's scumcase isn't good either. TVT or TVS? Not completely sure if it was TVT, but it looks like one so it is probably one.
I am not seeing any scum yet - and for me, having 2-3 townreads is rare, while not having scumreads is also rare - so let's look at the people in hiding.
Biratog claimed PR. We'll see later if that's scum or town.
Meteor has disappeared.
Dragons has been... giving reads with no justification.
VOTE: Save The Dragons

We should vote them to E-1, so that we can see the reasons for the reads and their reason for hiding their reasoning.

The speculation about TVT/TVS on hunterr's interactions pings. And the vote on STD is lazy IMO. And I generally just hate "we should vote them to E-1 and see" style reasoning to vote someone.

Welcome, Not Known!! Yeah, I hope Meteor hasn't also had to drop out, the odd spread of activity has been hard in this game so far.
I won't be voting for Dragons just for pressure but yeah, I wish we would get some reads explanation. Especially on the Not Known slot.

If people are allowed to act like that it is bad for town.
Townslots acting like that might hold bad reads that help scum, or very good reads that, due to lack of explanation, never bring out the pressure they should.
Mafiaslots acting like that conceal their fake reasons and scum motivation behind these reads.
None of that is good for town.

Taly has been guilty of the same, so...VOTE: taly

And this -- "if people are allowed to act like that it's bad for town." There aren't enough votes in the world to punish players for playstyles you don't like AND get scum elimmed in most games.

These stances are formulaic and rule-of-thumb. Not Known is pidgeonholing players based on playstyle and doesn't show any deep thought about their play or the gamestate around their stances.

I'm sad. I was kinda liking Prism's later posts and I may be reacting to a playstyle issue here, too.

Don't think it's unreasonable, do you?

I do. You can have confident reads Day 1, but not being confident in Day 1 reads is not unreasonable. Even if people post a ton. Day 1 reads are generally not that good.

I like this post, but once again, it's forumlaic.

Ok! That's my read through in a nutshell.

I feel like the Meteor Tome/ahhlo slot is scum. Of all the reactions to Binatog's early post, Meteor's bugged me the most. And that one post from Ahhlo wasn't even game-related, just a complaint about old games being available to read.

I'm less sure on anyone else. I don't think I would have maintained a scum read on Prism, since I was already warming up to her based on her page 9 posts. Not Known's approach grates A LOT.

I take meta into heavily into account when it's experiential, and I don't think I've ever played with Not Known before. I modded a newbie game he was in last year, and I'm going to go back and look at that when I have a chance. He was scum in that game. I also spectated a large theme game where he was scum earlier this year. I remember his play there better, but I'm not sure it's a good indication of his style in smaller games.

[fferyllt]

I'll be around much of today. Tomorrow, I'll be afk especially later in the day. Several hours of driving with a visit with some friends in the middle. After that I'll be active through to the deadline.

I look forward to playing with everyone and I hope a few more of you are active while I'm around today. I can get a lot from several pages worth of data, but I also need interactions!

[fferyllt]

It's not like the slots alignment changes because a new player swapped in, or that the player would even feel compelled to keep up the behaviour of the previous player, especially when there is a wagon on them.

All true. My playstyle is pretty idiosyncratic. Regardless of alignment, I play

my

game, not that of my predecessor when I replace in to games.

It feel odd to come in, make some posts, take some stances and get talked ~about~ rather than talked ~to~.

----------------

Is there anything I've posted than anyone would like to discuss?

[fferyllt]

The games below are mostly for my benefit to have the links in my iso where I can find them. Don't feel obligated to read through old games if you're not interested.

Jingle's stump game. Not Known was Mafia and the day 1 elim. viewtopic.php?f=3&t=86803

He's assertive in this game and maybe less formulaic? I vaguely recall this game going into signups, and if I recall correctly alignments were rolled after a pre-day 1 discussion phase, where the player list picked two players who would be town masons and who would also decide what other PRs would be in the game. Looks like he was active in the initial phase, and I wouldn't expect formulaic scum reads at that point in the game, and it does seem like he's more formulaic after the game proper begins.

We Need a Fourth game is too strange to be relevant. He was scum, though.

viewtopic.php?t=84378&f=50&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go

This is his ISO from his scum game I modded. He was in that Newbie game from the start. I see some of the same formulaic reasons for voting in that game.

Unless I've missed a game, it's been at least over a year since he was town in a game, and this is his iso in that game. I feel like there is more nuance to his stances in the below game, though he still tends toward the formulaic.

viewtopic.php?t=85191&f=56&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go

I want to try to find some more town games that are recent enough to be relevant. And I want to sift through his posts here again and see if I glossed over nuance the first time through.

[fferyllt]

You mention 209 as looking bad to you, fferyllt. What makes it so? Just because you thought the Binatog post was townie looking, or is it something in hunterr's approach?

This is the post:

I might be bluffing too. Who knows? Of course I am. It's up to town what read(s) is up against me.

Okay, but you saw a circus crops up when you do stuff like this. What is the actual, concrete reason for willingly doing it again this game? Note that you do not have to reference your actual role for this question.

I have my own reasons. I am trying strategies, let me explore. You will know why at the end of the game.

How about you tell us your reasoning now?

I just don't think this is a line of questioning to pursue today unless Binatog is objectively scummy in other ways. If he's town, pressing him here only leads to scum having better info.

It's partly a theory difference, I guess. And overall I townread hunterr.

[fferyllt]

i dont understand what you guys are talking about, so many words and abbreviations its so frustrating i cant decide and i cant keep track of everyones names its way too hard

If you list some terms you don't understand, folks can explain them for you.

[fferyllt]

what has mafia cared about the most in the start of thsi game? binatag claiming that he is a town powerrole. If bintag is mafia (i believe he is), then it was a mafia ploy to make binatag seem town and have the town protect him. If binatag is town though, mafia is still focused on the powerrole claim, and will be discussing it in their mafia chatroom, and this will leak into their ingame posts as well. In otherwords, regardless of whether binatag is mafia or not, the other mafias were talking about his claim, and for more than the conversation justified.

this post: viewtopic.php?p=13169327#p13169327

seems like its out of place... we were done talking about binatag, and he just brings it up again out of no where. I think hunterrr is likely town, but we'll see. He is trying to figure out who the mafia are using logic and reasoning, and that is waht the town do. The mafia try to prevent it from happening, and scheme ways to confuse the town and pull stunts to prevent us from figuring it out.

wait, did nobody notice that winafriend apparantly knew about binatag's past games, when they only joined the site 6 days ago?

vote: winafred

SOMEONE must have told them about the game, and it MUST have been someone in the private mafia chatroom because it DID NOT happen in the game thraed.

This is confusing.

The post you linked here was not a WINfried post, it was a frogfrog post.

Prism was the first one to bring up Binatog's past game, I think? viewtopic.php?p=13168623#p13168623

She was talking about this game. viewtopic.php?f=50&t=85424

Binatog joined the site a year ago, not 6 days ago. I think you misread his join date.

What post of WINfried's are you referring to here?

[fferyllt]

The post has a zing to it that doesn't feel like something that was worked up in a scum pt, though.

I want to understand the thought process, though.

[fferyllt]

In post 221, Save The Dragons wrote:
i certainly am not trying to aggravate anyone with my playstyle

i think prism is over the top and is doing too much to be "i am the townie this town needs, town with me" and it makes me wonder if she's just trying to take control of the game. It's not a huge scum read, more of an observation.


Is this meta-based, or something you'd think of any player with that stance?

not meta based

hmm. I don't think it's alignment indicative behavior for Prism, fwiw.

[fferyllt]

My predecessor seems to have tunneled on hunterr. That scumcase was not good. Hunterr's scumcase isn't good either. TVT or TVS? Not completely sure if it was TVT, but it looks like one so it is probably one.

Not Known, can you go into this a little deeper? I think I may have misread it initially.

Welcome, Not Known!! Yeah, I hope Meteor hasn't also had to drop out, the odd spread of activity has been hard in this game so far.
I won't be voting for Dragons just for pressure but yeah, I wish we would get some reads explanation. Especially on the Not Known slot.

If people are allowed to act like that it is bad for town.
Townslots acting like that might hold bad reads that help scum, or very good reads that, due to lack of explanation, never bring out the pressure they should.
Mafiaslots acting like that conceal their fake reasons and scum motivation behind these reads.
None of that is good for town.

How do you feel about STD's more recent posts?

What made pushing Taly more attractive than sticking with STD at this point?

---------------------

Reading through the ISO, there's more nuance than I initially picked up.

Sadly, that means that I'm now unsure on both the scumreads I developed in my initial readthrough.

I won't be traveling most of tomorrow after all so I'll be around. I don't really want to flood the thread talking to myself tonight (more than I already have). Maybe the thread will be more active in the morning.

[fferyllt]

How do you feel about STD's more recent posts?

Scratch this. Dropping out of ISO I see you've reacted to his recent posts.

[fferyllt]

What made pushing Taly more attractive than sticking with STD at this point?

Taly had votes. And was similarly evasive with reads, plus a case.
And hunterr vs Prism looked like one of the usual counterproductive TvT's to me.
UNVOTE:
I don't like my push on dragon anymore. At all, that is.
By exclusion, there aren't many suspicious people left.
VOTE: ahhlo

What changed your mind on STD?

Scumteam is still Taly/fferyllt and STD, is the issue with that.

Hmm.

[fferyllt]

Like two days left on the timer. I was scum so I didn't pay attention to this in my first game, lol, is the theory / strategy that it's best to lim d1?

Definitely better. Even if the elim is town, it's better for town than no elim. There is useful data in the vote counts when the leading wagon's alignment is a known fact. That helps town PRs on Night 1 and all of town in the subsequent game days.

[fferyllt]

I realize my slot hasn't voted. I tend to not put a vote down until I'm sure of who I want elimmed, but I need to come to some conclusions due to the time left. I'll reread and run ISOs today, ask more questions (which hopefully get answers!) and put my vote down within 12 hours if not sooner.

[fferyllt]

Thoughts about the first few pages

The first few pages of a game are usually my favorite part, because they tend to be lighthearted and the way by which the game leaves RVS can be hugely informative. My reads are more in the form of townreads and POEs unless something seriously pings right off the bat. I did get some pings in my initial readthrough of the game start. Mostly Meteor Tome and Binatog. I don't think I would have voted either on that basis, though.

Disclaimer: Although I wasn't following the game closely, I was dipping in to read occasionally, because I thought I might replace into this game at some point if SEs were needed. I volunteered to take Prism's slot, but Not Known beat me to it. The travails of living on the west coast. Also, I won't volunteer comments on my predecessor because 1) anything I'd post would probably be useless in helping others sort my slot, and 2) I don't need to sort Taly. I've seen his role PM. You can ask me questions about what I think of Taly's posts and I'll have a closer look, but even that's probably a waste of everyone's time.

Laplacian's post 8 has a cheeky meme feel, which disarms me a little. He entered the game in a comfortable mindset. That's not necessarily a town mindset, but I like it anyway.

Hello everyone. I'm an SE, or a semi-experienced player. I've been playing for 11 years, so I've been around the mafia block quite a few times. I'm eager to share all I've learned over the years with you, and my experience is here for you to draw upon. That said, I am far from perfect and I am most excited for the chance for some of you, as fresh young blood, to teach this old dog some new tricks. I hope we have a fun game we can walk away proud of at the end of the day. You will find that the other two SEs have experience equaling or greater than my own, with more talent to boot. The table is very fortunate to have them.

VOTE: Meteor Tome, who confirmed in between day start and now but has yet to post (Micc's original post, citing their need to confirm, is in the start of Day 1 PM)

Prism's post bugged me a little initially because it's such a nitpick. But it's also trademark Prism, in that regardless of alignment, she tries to find a real reason for suspicion as soon as a game starts. RVS isn't something she wants the game to linger over.

VOTE: Meteor Tome, who confirmed in between day start and now but has yet to post (Micc's original post, citing their need to confirm, is in the start of Day 1 PM)

Genuinely don’t know what happened here, as far as I’m aware I confirmed as soon as I got my role PM, this is the first time I’ve looked at the thread since the game start. Maybe I just don’t understand how it works or something.

VOTE: Save The Dragons Dragons aren’t real silly!

Meteor Tome doesn't reply for another half-hour, which is still the next post after Prism's. This suggests he wasn't around to post sooner. The main thing that pings to me about this post is "genuinely". It's not a hard tell because there's a lot of variance in playstyles. But, when I see a player in defense mode use terms like "genuinely", "honestly", "tbh (to be honest)", etc., it can mean that they're falling back on something they can say truthfully in defense, but their alignment is slipping in because though this one thing is truthful, they're not playing truthfully at all. It's been years since I used this kind of wording as a sole reason to vote someone, even in RVS, but it is a ping.

Hello there guys. I expect the SE to help us to play thanks

Binatog's post feels like an opaque platitude. A ping.

I liked WINfried's page 1 entrance to the game when I initially read it, and I still like it.

I liked frogsfrogs's 28. I felt like his initial post plus this one showed that he was closely processing the game, and was pretty ballpark in terms of my own game thoughts.

At the end of page 1 I had 3 townfeels: Laplacian, frogs, and WINfried, and a townhope: Prism. I liked Taly's content at that point, too, but I won't be commenting on my predecessor further because 1) I know their alignment and 2) Anything I'd say would be useless to sorting my slot.

Meteor Tome's 32 bugged me a little. It has a slight roleplay vibe rather than sounding like a real, unvarnished thought, and he was jumping on a post by frogs that I liked. :/

No wait, sorry, TMI

is

a term that is used and is a valid thing to read on. Scum have incentive to create content, too, because they have to look townie. It's the quality of the information as well as the quantity that's important, and posting game relevant but empty content is potentially scum indicative. Again, not something I even think about Taly anymore, and I'm certainly a newbie here too, but you're misunderstanding me or

something

.

I’m sorry but I don’t understand. What you seem to describe as TMI here wouldn’t be information it’d just be fluff presented as information. I don’t know if that’s just me not understanding or something that actively doesn’t make sense about the term or what. The way I see it I’d only consider meaningful information as information and in that scenario there can’t possibly be TMI, but at this point I think I’m getting into semantics not even with a player’s own terminology but with site terms, assuming that actually is one (I’ll check the wiki).

[/quote]

This was probably touched on by other players, but I'll weigh in anyway. The way I see TMI used in MS mafia games is in terms of a player revealing that they know something that isn't in the game thread. It could reveal a discussion that was had privately. It could reveal knowledge of a player's alignment or something about the setup that isn't common knowledge. The latter, in newbie games is something players have to think critically about. The TMI could be knowledge a PR has about the setup that the vanilla townies don't have, or it could be knowledge that scum have by virtue of knowing both their roles plus whatever data is in the game thread.

I don't think Meteor Tome OR frogsfrogs were using the the term in this sense, though.

I like Meteor Tome's back and forth with frogs here better than I did the earlier posts.

I guess drawing attention to yourself by flashy behaviour and suggesting you might hold a special role isn't a clear sign you are mafia, might be a sign you're not clinging to much to your virtual life though. But I'm not the fun police (for now ).

I do wonder though, was it a mere coincidence that you showed up again right after I poked you with a stick?

I had the same thought, but it was actually an hour later. This happened a couple times as I was reading throught, feeling that since the

very next post

was a response to something accusatory it looked like the accused player was following the game closely. But actually, this game was moving slowly by my hyperposty standards.

Aside: I'm trying not to spam it up here, but I also want to get my thoughts into the thread. That means lots of little posts, or clunky wall posts. Or both.

Probably both. :/

I'm at the point where Binatog made the notable post, which is where I want to elaborate my thoughts. I wouldn't expect SEs to flub any reactions here, but there was the potential for less experienced players to. But I really don't think there were any players in the game at this point who are so new to mafia that they'd be at risk of a major flub. Everyone showed various levels of familiarity with the game and how to think critically about mafia. Still, it's worth a look.

WINFried took the post head on, and with a bit of humor, neither spotlighting nor downplaying what Binatog had posted.

Laplacian spotlighted it, but didn't jump hard at it.

Meteor Tome jumped hard in a that was bad and you should feel bad way.

STD ignored it.

Prism treated it as a teachable moment.

WINfried circled back to it and voted binatog, with some reasoning.

Laplacian seconded that vote.

Frogs unvoted (a vote from before the binatog post). and explained his thoughts on the various scenarios and why he thought none of them called for a day 1 vote.

Of all these reactions the ones that pinged most were Meteor Tome (though in retrospect not as badly as I thought during my first read-through), STD's and Laplacian's vote as well as his as an aside post.

Without the as an aside post, I think Laplacian's vote post wouldn't have raised as much of an eyebrow. But, putting someone who softed PR under no pressure, however sketchily at E-2 on page 3 is always going to bug me at least a little even after lo these many years playing mafia with majority-elim rules. On balance I think I still townread Laplacian.

----------------------------

I'm going to fast forward to my own entrance into the game, because from my perspective it was another

event

and there were reactions to think about. And, I have the benefit of knowing my rolecard in this event.

I posted a quick and dirty catchup. As I mentioned above I had skimmed parts of the game off and on since it began. I started reading in earnest when I sent a "yes" back to our Beneficent Mod when he asked me if I was still interested in replacing in. I was on page 6 when I got the role PM. My first post was just a quick summary of my thoughts to that point and a heads up on how long I thought it would take me to get up to speed.

My second post was more detailed, but I decided to push forward rather than go back and expand stuff from my first post. I was aware that the last vote count had my slot at E-2 and that the other votes were all onesies, so I wanted to get as much thought into the game as I could quickly so you'd have my impressions in case other votes were incoming.

The reactions to my arrival and first few posts:

frogs unvotes stating he hated being wrong. I liked his 349 because I can relate to that feeling of having something change how I feel about a bunch of other reads. It's disconcerting, and can take a bit to regroup and rethink. Sometimes it's not just a case of moving on to the next strongest scumread, especially if the player's been working on a teamsolve. I don't know if that's the case for frogs or not, though. And I have to think about this in the context of how strong other players' scumreads apparently were.

Laplacian was (still is?) voting Binatog (need to check if that vote's been sitting there since page 4 or w/e). And indicates my post preempted a big wall he'd been working on tying my slot to Binatog.

WINfried indicates a new player in my slot will not easily (I'm going to assume that he's not so hidebound that no amount of new data would sway him) budge his strong scumread of Taly.

The only player who asked me anything about my catchup was frogs, so he gets a bonus townpoint.

Laplacian, I'm unsure. Comparing this to the gamestate jostle that binatog's post made I get the same feel of maybe more bravado than he actually feels, and that slight, slight, space between the first player to react (WINfried in the binatog incident) and frogs in this one and him following along with a similar opinion. I dunno. I think scum would probably hang back a little longer than he did in both these situations, but this is not as strong a townread as I had in my initial catchup.

Like his ignoring binatog's post, I feel like STD ignored my entrance except to answer my question.

ahhlo also ignored my arrival, though maybe another name popping up in the thread and confusion about who among the new faces replaced whom is part of the problem. His first couple of posts had some game content and felt like he was making decisions and taking stances. Since then his posts don't have game content at all. Overall it feels like kicking puppies to go on about this slot. :/

hunterr and binatog haven't posted since I joined, and it looks like binatog is due for a prod if that hasn't happened already. With more time on the clock I would probably have waited before trying to dig into the reactions to my entrance to see what they did, but the clock is what it is.

Not Known confuses me. He's voted both my slot and STD for similar lack of votes/reads. He switched from Taly to STD because he thought STD had more sentiment against him (and votes I think) than Taly did from my readup. He changed his mind about STD for reasons that are not in the thread. He was still arguing against STD in his previous posts before last night and there nothing new from STD in the intervening time. And, he pushes toward aaahlo because why?

[fferyllt]

Reading through Laplacian's ISO I feel better, though yeah, that binatog read really has stayed fairly motionless since page 4.

I think part of my issue is that the amount of data in this day 1 is sparse from my POV. A page 4 read sticking so long isn't unheard of, but in a game that had 14 pages when I started there just hasn't been very much activity to shake things up.

I get the frustration with Binatog's play and I'd probably share it if I'd been waiting for more from him for several days.

[fferyllt]

I dunno. I see a lot of STD suspicion but going through his iso, I'm not seeing a lot to get actively upset with. STD has a minimalist playstyle and tends to vote first and explain if asked, maybe. To me, he's a hard player to read. The significant thing I've seen of his town game in the past that's not here in this game is the way he often latches onto a scum read and hangs on to it forever.

I love how he was getting bashed for who he left out of the first half of his reads list and deadpan pointed out that the list was alphabetical. It's not AI, but it's so dry and sardonic that I just like how it hit the thread with a thunk and no responses after. (that I noticed, anyway!)

I played a game that hunterr was replaced from in 2020. It also happens to be a game where I replaced into a scum slot. We weren't in the game at the same time, so it's close to cold meta, but not quite.

viewtopic.php?f=50&t=84760

I wanted to reread his iso there because I remembered thinking that he looked very town in that game, and it would make a point of comparison.

one game is not enough to draw conclusions from but the read was interesting even so.

My impression from reading through this game last night was that he was mostly focused on Prism while she was in the game including the 1v1 stuff. Much of his other content didn't make as much of an impression. But, he's interacted with nearly every player and there has been some read evolution. One that stood out was his read on Binatog. He was arguing against players who were pushing Binatog early on, but as Bina has come back to the thread and provided so little, hunterr has grown impatient. Rightly so.

I'm still eh about whether Binatog should have been run up today despite never really digging into the game. His play is gambity and low info. And it would have annoyed the hell out of me to see his play unfold in real time.

Anyway, back to hunterr. Although his iso is largely consumed with his concerns about the Prism/Not Known slot, he's directly interacted with most/maybe all? slots, and he's asked questions that indicate he sees logical fallacies. He's not so much jumping on those fallacies as scum indicative as he's pushing players on their reasons for their stances. Like most of the new players in this game, he's impressing me as someone who is no stranger to the game of mafia and look like they'll make a successful transition to forum mafia. There's some pedagogy to his style which is really nice to see in a game where not all the SEs have been in lemme show you what I know mode.

[fferyllt]

So Town Their Blood is Green

frogsfrogs
WINfried

Town But I'd Probably Reevaluate on Day 2/3

Hunterr
Laplacian

------Line of Limmability------

Not Town Enough, but there are glimmers

STD
aahlo
Not Known 15

Probably should give this a day, but damn

Binatog

This is not a good list. I'd like to have at least one more player above the line. But, there's a significant difference in my feelings about those three players and the ones in the group above them.

I'm going to keep looking at the three with glimmers, and I wouldn't shed a single tear over Binatog being the elim at the moment.

[fferyllt]

Putting it down in list form and looking at it, I feel like hunterr is a player who could fool me and could play this way as scum. Depending on how players approached EM, that site could be a forge, or a joke. He looks like someone who would have used it as a forge.

[fferyllt]

frogs, I just noticed I've misgendered you a few times. I'm sorry about that. Will do better.

[fferyllt]

Someday.

[fferyllt]

I volunteered to take Prism's slot, but Not Known beat me to it. The travails of living on the west coast.

Suitable amount of shame for having replaced into the scum slot instead of the town slot.

Out of everything I've written, this is what you choose to respond to? I'm disappointed given the general quality of your analysis this game has been quite good.

[fferyllt]

uuaaggghhh I feel bad for this one, tbh, because I can tell you've been overwhelmed, but on the basis of where I was at with Meteor Tome--

VOTE: ahhlo

If we get closer to deadline and there's nothing yet, I'm willing to go Not Known, too, but this is my preferred vote

I'm probably voting here. I kinda want to see something from Binatog's slot first though.

@Mod will the clock get some more time when replacements are found?

[fferyllt]

Pocket.exe initiated... and the case vanishes. Very suspicious.

You realize your characterization fits your own trajectory on STD? In fact, your trajectory is more extreme.

I've asked you what changed your read of STD. I'd really like an answer.

[fferyllt]

minds think alike. Great may be in question though!

[fferyllt]

Pocket.exe initiated... and the case vanishes. Very suspicious.

You realize your characterization fits your own trajectory on STD? In fact, your trajectory is more extreme.

I've asked you what changed your read of STD. I'd really like an answer.

Oh, sorry. Forgot to answer this!
It wasn't really the trajectory as the fact that a supposedly big case on that one was never published.

On STD, well, that's very simple. I looked at the case and rebuttals with a day of sleep and concluded that I had been tunneling and that the answer about the execution threat was completely valid, and that the other part(not really wanting to explain cases, which is by the way a quite antitown part of that meta, one I'd like STD to not follow if they roll town, and one that sets a bad example to newbies, so newbies, don't be like STD and hide your reasons for your reads like that) was indeed explainable by meta.
And without these two points to stand on my whole case collapsed.

Thanks.

This is why I think STD is hard to read. The one thing that kinda bugs me, and I don't know if it's a strong feature of his town game, but I have seen him multi-day tunnel another player. The game I'm thinking of, that player came under a lot suspicion, most of which was town-driven, and he went to E-1 on more than one day before finally being elimmed the day before ELO if I recall correctly. I spectated that game. He doesn't seem to have that kind of passion about any of his reads in this game so far. There are a couple of his games I want to meta this morning.

---------------

I think the only thing I've done so far in this game that I didn't document in some way was an iso of WINfried to look at his trajectory on my slot, as well as his other reads. Mostly because the way he's engaged me so far lit a match to my freefloating mafia paranoia ~issues~. I came way thinking that his stances have been fluid and reactive and look like natural reactions to posts that hit the thread, including his stance on Taly initially. The way his read solidified into concrete doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me, but his all around play doesn't look scummy to me at all.

I should probably mention that if I'm alive on day 3, I will no doubt be a pool of liquid paranoia by then and will set all my reads (and my hair) on fire. Only slightly joking.

[fferyllt]

I don't believe Not Known would go from door to door and give half the town a reason to vote for him if he was scum.

This resonates. both in terms of the likely effect of Not Known's stances in this game, but also in terms of his play in the games I skimmed earlier.

I like Laplacian's reaction to the push though.

A lot.

[fferyllt]

I looked at the case and rebuttals with a day of sleep and concluded that I had been tunneling

No disagreement on that.

Iand that the answer about the execution threat was completely valid,

It wasn't exactly

his own

execution he was worried about. He needed to derail the wagon on Taly, though. Eventually he got a rise out of you, had you look irrational and/or suspicious, and even had you townread him for it.

I have a tendency to dismiss all of a player's reads when I know they're wrong about their read on me. And it's seldom a valid way to look at the game.

I'd like to know, if you look ahead to learning my alignment is town what does that do to your STD read? Do you still feel he's scum in a world where I am town. If not, then what is your solve?

[fferyllt]

because they know that its harder for me to respond to them

How would I know this?

I've actually tried to explain site specific and mafia game specific terms in my posts since you mentioned that you didn't know some of the terminology.

I probably won't make many more long posts. I'm caught up, and I've done the research that I felt like I needed to do.

I am thinking about voting you, but I've been holding off to see what your current thoughts about the game are, in case you've just not been caught up with the game.

Are you familiar with the term OMGUS? Basically it's voting another player because you feel like they're attacking you rather than looking at the reasons why they suspect you.

I scumread your predecessor, but I'm trying to give you the benefit of the doubt if you'll put enough of your thoughts into the game that I can read you rather than depend on what I think of the player you replaced.

If I didn't care about your alignment and didn't want to give you the benefit of the doubt, I'd would just have voted you.

[fferyllt]

VOTE: fferylt

This is scum.

I've slept on ahhlo, and although I can see his play as scum, especially given his predecessor, I'm not convinced.

So my second guess for scum is the Binatog slot.

I'll still hold onto my vote until we have replacements because I'd really like to see something real-time from the Binatog slot.

[fferyllt]

So Town Their Blood is Green

frogsfrogs
WINfried

Town But I'd Probably Reevaluate on Day 2/3

Hunterr
Laplacian

------Line of Limmability------

Not Town Enough, but there are glimmers

STD
aahlo
Not Known 15

Probably should give this a day, but damn

Binatog

This is not a good list. I'd like to have at least one more player above the line. But, there's a significant difference in my feelings about those three players and the ones in the group above them.

I'm going to keep looking at the three with glimmers, and I wouldn't shed a single tear over Binatog being the elim at the moment.

So Town Their Blood is Green

frogsfrogs
WINfried

Town But I'd Probably Reevaluate on Day 2/3

Hunterr slot
Laplacian
Not Known 15

------Line of Limmability------

Not Town Enough, but there are glimmers

aahlo

Not Town

STD

Still probably should give this a day, but damn

Binatog slot

I'm a lot happier now.

[fferyllt]

why am i scum

Because you know more about my game than anyone else at this table and I think you know this is not my scum game.

And because I feel that your vote was opportunistic. Maybe you think my flip will force a rethink on your alignment. And maybe it will. I'm not sure what calculus will happen, particularly in WINfried's head.

My thoughts are focused on Day 2.

[fferyllt]

Look at my ranked order. You've always been a possibility as scum to me because other players have done more town stuff than you. I think you are more likely scum than ahhlo, but the big question mark to me is Binatog, and I may not get the data I'd need to solidify a read there.

[fferyllt]

i don't see my vote as opportunistic at all

You may not, but I certainly do.

WINfried is going to have to do a reset if I'm the elim today. And I feel that's your opportunity to get out from under the microscope. Hence feeling your vote is opportunistic. I think you, too, are trying to play Day 2 here.

[fferyllt]

i just feel like you went from "i'm not sure" to "this is scum" purely because I voted for you which shouldn't be unreasonable considering all that i've posted so far

I don't have to convince you that you're scum. You're welcome to convince me that you aren't though!

[fferyllt]

i just feel like you went from "i'm not sure" to "this is scum" purely because I voted for you which shouldn't be unreasonable considering all that i've posted so far

I think I have telegraphed that my POE was getting tighter, and maybe that wasn't blatant enough for you to see the implications?

[fferyllt]

WINfried's 418 is a theory I really like to see made. I have not done enough reading back to catch stuff like this and I think it outlines something plausible! Do you think this page is theater though, WINfried?

I will just tell you straight up that it is not theater. STD and I are not S-S.

I'm perplexed and frustrated. WINFried has been a blank, impenetrable wall as far as actually interacting with me since I replaced in. To have written my slot off to that extent is just not something I comprehend. And I hope that going forward in this game he'll be careful not to do that again, particularly if it's a newbie slot.

I could throw up a few game links for you guys to read showing my replace-in play as town and scum over the last year or so, but I don't know if any of you would get anything meaningful from it, assuming you gave them a read.

Not everybody is a meta-player and that's ok. It's not the only way to read people.

I don't beat the drum and proclaim myself town in games. I trust my alignment to shine through my posts, and I believe that it's shining through in this game. That's all I can do. The rest is up to town to see it.

[fferyllt]

Hey and welcome!

This game's moved pretty slowly since I replaced in, and I don't think it was moving fast before then. You should have plenty of time to catch up at your leisure.

[fferyllt]

While I'm waiting on WINfried's response...

fferyllt you were waiting for the replacement for Binatog, right? As I recall you seemed pretty confident this slot was scum.

Not confident, but quite frustrated with how little data Binatog had put into the game. The semi-jokey soft claim was ok though I think that sort of play when it comes from town often misfires. I can provide at least one recent misfire example that led to a town loss if anyone is interested.

At ~2 days before deadline, if nothing else I was hoping to pressure Binatog into doing more. There's nothing in his posts that would move him out of my POE.

With 4 days and a new player in the slot, I'm happy to roll the dial back to zero and see what you do with the slot.

[fferyllt]

Your Laplacian read is interesting. There are some things that stick out, as you said.

I tried to consider the immediate reactions to my replace-in because those reactions are the only ones where I know the subject's (my) alignment. I felt like my slot was probably the default elim at the time, unless I could near-immediately produce some obviously town data upon replacing in. Which is something I'm capable of and do fairly frequently, though by nature of newbie games, it's not always recognized. So, I thought about what a scum reaction vs a town reaction would be to my catch-up posts. Generically, I expect town to react quickly and naturally regardless of what the reaction actually is. frogs cleared that hurdle with plenty of height to spare. Laplacian also reacted quickly though with a more studied post about it. He's not as town as the two players I have in the top tier. But from reading through the game a couple times, it does look like he's usually reacting to events in real time, not hanging back to see what direction the herd is taking before committing.

There's something about the nature of his responses that have kept me from going all in on a bet the farm level read.

I like your reads list overall, though.

[fferyllt]

Restate your case please

I'm caught up and I like winfried/ nk15 for town.
Don't want to eliminate in laplacian/std
Kind of feeling fferylim atm

What's your frogs read? ahhlo read?

[fferyllt]

Can you go into more detail about why Frogs is null?

[fferyllt]

I find that interesting, given frogs is in my bet the farm they're town pile.

[fferyllt]

Oddly enough my initial highest scumread was my own slot which wasn't a good sign :/

Why was that?

[fferyllt]

I'm not townreading ahhlo.

I don't think he's super new to mafia, but he is new to MS. My issues are more with his predecessor, and just worrying a little that he's kinda prod dodging here.

[fferyllt]

I'm happy so far with Tejate's thread input.

Very much less so with MegAzumarill. Although not untouchable, I had hunterr as town. Meg is not giving me townvibes at all.

@STD

, Why do you think WINFried is bluffing? And how does voting me call that bluff?

[fferyllt]

I love all the theories around me-pairing

I think there may be a contradiction in STD's stance on me with respect to WINfried's push on me, but for it to be a bluff, that implies he thinks WINfried could be scum.

I dunno. Maybe I'm seeing a hall of mirrors when there's a simpler way of parsing that.

So here I am not hammering ahhlo. Does that mean we're partners?

There's a dark humor to this situation that I think maybe only I can appreciate.

[fferyllt]

That's not my issue. My issue is there was no push to turn this read here into an actual wagon:

VOTE: fferylt

This is scum.

I don't have the gravita this game day to lead a wagon.

I'll let my alignment speak for itself if/when I'm dead.

I'm also reconsidering STD, as should be apparent from the post I made last night. This game has tilted me. You're the proximate cause, but tunnels are a thing. And my reaction to STD was partially due to feeling like he was (like a lot of players so far) tying my alignment to someone else in the game. In this case it looks like tying my alignment and yours. Which is ridiculous, but nobody said mafia players have to be logical.

For the sake of voting the player that's wound up at the bottom of POE,

vote: MegAzumeril

If ahhlo's town, then based on his occasional post here suggests that he's going to be pretty much impossible to read, which is why I'm not particularly kicking about this elim.

[fferyllt]

Question, if I'm scum why would I move the wagon off of you?

That's extremely dependent on what scum think the town will do when my alignment is known as well as who scum actually are. If you're scum, my being alive and limping around under a cloud of suspicion for another day is probably to your benefit. And when push comes to shove, my stubborn will to stay alive may kick in which could be worse for scum that whatever fight aahlo will be able to mount if he's town.

On the other hand replacing into a town slot and not fighting tooth and nail to survive and get my scumreads elimmed has its downside as well, as Newbie 2060 proved. I don't really like to fight tooth and nail in newbie games, though. To me these games are more about introducing new players to mafia at MS than whether I personally get elimmed, as long as it isn't in ELO.

Where suspicion likely flows next may look detrimental to scum after my alignment is a fact in evidence. And if I'm alive on day 2 there's a reasonable chance I'll be the distraction du jour for a second game day.

[fferyllt]

I'm not opposed to an Ahhlo lim but I dont know if I'm excited about it

Who do you want eliminated?

You make it sound like you voted me mostly to prove a point.

[fferyllt]

Hey. You ignoring my reply to you Meg?

[fferyllt]

Also ffery what do you want me to say to your response?

It sounded like you were shading my vote when you asked the question. Right or wrong, I voted for reasons. Are you satisfied with my response about why scum-you might not want to vote me?

[fferyllt]

It's interesting that you're not pushing harder to elim me even as you come under pressure.

Have you played with Taly?

[fferyllt]

I've never played with him either. I spectated the Slaughterhouse game, where he was very energetic town. Which is not how I'd characterize his play in this game. And I know by reputation that he's thought to have a damn good scum game. Which is not how I'd characterize his play in this game, either. On balance, as I was catching up, even before I saw my role PM I thought he was more likely town than scum.

Prism had him as more likely town, too, though she was frustrated that he wasn't putting more into the game.

You must surely have an opinion of my scum play in penguin_alien's anonymous game. I replaced into your team.

[fferyllt]

Newbie 2085

Moderated by Micc

Players:

frogsfrogs
MegAzumarill hunterr, ishrar
ahhlo Meteor Tome
Tejate Raichu Binatog13
WINfried Panda2004
Laplacian
Save The Dragons (SE)
fferyllt Taly (SE)
Not Known 15 Prism (SE)

SE - indicates a Semi-Experienced player, a player who has played at least two games on MafiaScum.net

Spoiler: Alive

frogsfrogs
MegAzumarill
Meteor Tome
Tejate Raichu
WINfried
Laplacian
Save The Dragons
fferyllt
Not Known 15

Spoiler: Dead

Important Events:

Day 1 Begins | WINfried replaces Panda2004 | hunterr replaces ishrar | Not Known 15 replaces Prism | ahhlo replaces Meteor Tome | fferyllt replaces Taly | Tejate Raichu replaces Binatog13 | MegAzumarill repalces hunterr

Oh yeah that was why I townread nk15
I townread prism

Who were you in Role a Pair? I honestly don't remember who's who now

I replaced into Yellow at the end of day 1.

[fferyllt]

Mobile socks also you were the good scum that replaces into our dumpster fire team

+1 paranoia

Cabd was never going to let me slide by.

But, "good" was just simply not giving up and rolling over.

[fferyllt]

What are mobile socks?

[fferyllt]

Stick with one or two threads in the general discussion forum and you should be ok. Starting several threads at the same time that are all kinda on the same topic is not really good forum etiquette.

I haven't been keeping up with general discussion tonight. It's been busy at my house.

[fferyllt]

I'll try to stop by tomorrow once or twice, but it may not happen.

I hope everyone has a great day tomorrow!

[fferyllt]

I think that's how discussion bans are actually supposed to work. Last night may have been a glitch.

Do you have any thoughts about the game this morning?

[fferyllt]

It's Christmas Day. I wouldn't do a whole lot of refreshing. Lots of members, including the mods have other stuff going on today.

------------------

I'll be around more than I expected today. No get-together with friends. BF and I have come down with something (mild!) and we don't want to share it.

I'm reading through some of MegAzumarill's finished game ISOs and will post about anything I learn that might be relevant to their alignment in this game.

[fferyllt]

I think we all need to drop this topic. It's borderline if not over the line in terms of out of game influence. There's not likely to be any game mod or listmod actions today, but we're in that zone.

Please let's just get back to the game.

[fferyllt]

Your reasons/cases feel shallow, Meg.

[fferyllt]

I mean considering the time I've been in this game is that a surprise?
You finish your readthrough of my completed games?

You haven't been in the game much longer than I have.

And not yet.

[fferyllt]

much shorter time I mean.

[fferyllt]

I know some people teamsolve/look for associations with their scumreads on Day 1, but I tend to either not do that at all, or do it with an expectation of high error bars. It's a lot easier to analyze for that kind of data when you have a factual alignment or two, whether town or scum flips.

Re ahhlo I have him as a complete cipher at this point. If he was trying to play the game before, I feel like after he flipped out because I voiced suspicion of him (which I think was at least vaguely AI), his posts since that reaction don't have game content. Maybe the wagon composition itself will be somewhat meaningful, but meh.

[fferyllt]

I think you underestimate the appetite for my elim.

[fferyllt]

@MegAzumarill

Are you familiar with the Amished tell?

[fferyllt]

What bugs me out about STD is that his reads seem like he's only half in the game but his staying alive strats seem to be as sharp as canine teeth. What do you think about that fferyllt? With Meg on the other hand its somewhat on par, they seem neither good at reading the game nor at keeping himself alive.

This is part of what has bugged me about STD, though I think he may be dialing back on the intensity as town some. I've seen him play a very low key, out of the limelight game as scum, and won in elo. That happened in a newbie game I modded earlier this year. To some extent it was won by the fantastic distancing his scum partner create before being the day 2 elim.

His extreme lack of activity the last few days would be bothering me a lot more if it weren't the holiday season.

I'm a little spooked about my read of him because of the amount of tilt his vote on me evoked. That's the main reason I backed off. :/

[fferyllt]

Nope

In Amished's own words:

Subject: Open 193 - Friends and Enemies: It's over!

@VP: To clarify; the difference is what happens after the reread that I didn't take into account before. Skimming posts for questions and answers (which was the failure); or criticism.

Jazzmyn
Scien
ABR (hi!)
yours truly

That's just ones that I've caught/remembered specifically.

For those of you that don't know what's going on; I've basically come up with a scumtell that

if you *criticize* who you replaced in; you're scum.

This is a refinement from what I had it (if you read your replacement at all you were scum); but this seems to cover all the instances where I've seen/remember it. If you're town, you really don't have to worry about your predecessor as you know they're town; but if you think that they're scummy; then you're scum. As town, you know that you're not scummy and don't deserve criticism at all.

[fferyllt]

I bolded the key phrase.

[fferyllt]

I still have issues with Meg, though I see some differences in their arguments here vs their recent scum iso in a newbie game that I spectated. I've gone back through that game and side-by-sided the posts in this game. I hopefully will look at a few more tonight before I crash. Can't promise because I keep falling asleep. :/

It takes a lot more than a 1 game comparison to develop a meta read. I didn't really want to meta a bunch of games for this one in the first place. But, aside from the anonymous game I mentioned earlier, Meg and I haven't played together before.

[fferyllt]

The initial wagon on my slot died without any interference and I would've been on the wagon if I was another player.
No use discussing further imo

^^ This post is why I brought up the Amished tell.

Another good point is that Ahhlo has basically claimed VT and reducing claims helps town.
Another good point is ahhlo is likely limmed tomorrow

if I flip town

.
Another good point is ahhlo isnt scumhunting if they are town.
I can continue but it's practically objective

The phrasing that I bolded here pings, though it's not *that* uncommon for town to post as though their alignment is uncertain in statements like this. But, it does suggest a mindset.

I noticed in their scum newbie game that they frequently argued that behavior they were being scumread for was NAI because, they'd do it as town, too.

It kinda looks like taking refuge speaking the truth when scum.

I see parallels in their style of scumplay in that other game and my own (especially in my early years at MS), like Megs tries to keep their scumplay inside the envelope of their town range, unless they really need to do something bold.

This is not strong argumentation for Meg being scum. But, it's bugging me.

[fferyllt]

Megs is actively playing the game, and should become easier to read over time, though.

Which means I'm willing to move my vote to STD.

Not totally unwilling to move to ahhlo. His play has become less and less anchored in anything happening in this game and I feel like guessing his alignment based on his own play is a crapshoot. His first couple of posts when he replaced in felt townie, but I had a pretty strong scumread on his predecessor.

[fferyllt]

To be honest, I'm surprised I haven't really been scumread yet considering no one here has actually seen me play scum. I wonder if this is more because of the Binatog situation or something else.

Also, regarding that "Amished" play, that is something interesting although I'm not sure how well it would apply in practice. Then again I might be biased because I criticized Binatog's play a bit in one of my initial posts.

As for the vote, I'm still gonna need some time to think about this. Give me like an hour and I'll decide on my wagon. I really do not want to end with a no elim after all of this discussion.

I feel like this tell has to be applied very carefully. Players who've been around MS for a few years probably have that tell spring to mind when they replace in and shake their head over their predecessor.

Really new players with no mafia experience probably don't even think about their slot that way. There's a sort of window where, yes, you start thinking that way about your predecessor, and it may slip into what you post. Depending on how it comes out, it can be a flag to me for looking more closely, but not something that in isolation is a sure-fire alignment indicator.

[fferyllt]

I'm cop

Off

unvote:

But I note what scum-you did when the cop claimed cop in the last newbie game you played.

[fferyllt]

ahhlo is being force replaced in accordance with this Ban/Restriction Announcement.

T3 replaces ahhlo.

I will reset the deadline timer to 2 days.

Thank you for the timer reset!

And welcome, T3!

[fferyllt]

Keep this page in mind going forward. Particularly Meg's post 868.

This is

me explicitly not counterclaiming

but paranoid as all hell.

[fferyllt]

UNVOTE: Binatog
In which situation of those three does town benefit from pressuring him now, Laplacian? What's the best we can get from it? 1. A real PR claim, where Mafia now get to know the setup + who to kill tonight; very bad! 2. An admission that it was a fake soft claim, where mafia now know not to kill Bin because he isn't a PR, and then we just have to go back to reading him anyways to decide if he's now telling the truth or not. Or 3. Scum!Binatog now fakeclaiming one of the previous two. If he fakeclaims a PR, in almost all setups at least one real PR knows he's lying, and they can decide to out themselves or not. If he fakeclaims VT, then, again, we have to read him like anyone else, right?
The situations you've set up being annoying doesn't mean that voting Binatog helps. I think it's bad for town for there to be any PR claims as early as this and that soft claims like this are best ignored, though factored in. I don't see enough from Binatog otherwise to read him yet.

i'd be down to launch this guy into a pool of electric eels

reasoning?

[fferyllt]

I'm Taly's replacement.

Tecate's is Binatog's replacement

Megs is hunterr's replacement

You're Meteor/ahhlo's replacement.

That's for my benefit as much as yours.

[fferyllt]

oh and not known 15 is Prism's replacement.

This game's a trip.

[fferyllt]

We're at the point now where there have been more posts since I replaced in than before I replaced in. Several days have added to the deadline, but still.

my presence tends to spur discussion. And it's not just me spamming it up, though I certainly don't help matters in that regard!

[fferyllt]

Keep this page in mind going forward. Particularly Meg's post 868.

This is

me explicitly not counterclaiming

but paranoid as all hell.

Someone convince me how that comment is not blatant rolefishing.

"going forward". I'm speaking to town in the future.

Not today, but I may not be alive to say it again if the time comes when it should be looked back at.

[fferyllt]

I mean I realize you're tunneled and that you're going to put the most negative light on stuff I say, but that one is kinda a reach.

I wish I thought you aren't town, but you're in my top tier. oh well!

[fferyllt]

[fferyllt]

I'm not opposed to an Ahhlo lim but I dont know if I'm excited about it

Who do you want eliminated?

You make it sound like you voted me mostly to prove a point.

i don't know where the disconnect is coming from but i think you're scum and i'm voting you for that.

My question was based on your statement about calling WINfried's bluff.

[fferyllt]

My role pm says otherwise.

Still wondering about your role pm.

[fferyllt]

When T3 finishes catching up, I'll think about his contributions.

I disagree pretty strongly with some of his statements so far, but I've seen him go over the edge as confident town before (and very recently, in the most recent newibe game I modded).

I'm a little concerned that it's taking longer for him to catch up than I'd expect. But, holidays.

So many things have impacted this game and made it difficult to sort the recent replacement players. I'm not including myself in that group, but maybe I should. But, I feel like I put my thoughts into the game and have made tons of AI posts, which have been ignored in some cases and actively misinterpreted in others.

Anyway, this day is going to end soon and I hope town has better data and resets going forward.

Once T3's caught up and I've given more thought to the slot I'll be ready to post what I hope will be my final reads list of day 1.

[fferyllt]

I've given up on my alignment shining through all the murk in this game. I'm salty and I'm in "I told you so" mode, and I'm ready for this day to end. If that means the end of my participation in the game, so be it. I'll subsist on "I told you so" and cheer for a town win from the nosebleed seats.

[fferyllt]

That brings our realistic wagon options down to NK15, Meg, and ahhlo. Am I mistaken about this or does that sound about right?

NK15 is a big nono for me. Meg and ahhlo undecided. fferyllt i left because no one joined and now i'd be surprised if there is suddenly support i guess, std would still be up for me.

I think you underestimate the appetite for my elim.

This is never my scum game.

[fferyllt]

And I didn't think I could get more squicked.

[fferyllt]

Are newbie games usually this hectic with replacements? Tbh I expected a standard role list like this to be a little calmer.

Speaking as a veteran newbie game mod, replacements are frequent, if not hectic. 3-5 replacements on day 1 is probably the norm. This game is on the extreme, in that by late day 1 there are only 3 players left who have been in the game from the very start and some slots have already more than one replace-in.

I've modded dozens of newbie games. I can't tell you an exact number because I've lost count. Now I'm curious and when I have time, I'll do a count, though. Only one of them had zero replacements.

[fferyllt]

When T3 finishes catching up, I'll think about his contributions.

I disagree pretty strongly with some of his statements so far, but I've seen him go over the edge as confident town before (and very recently, in the most recent newibe game I modded).

I'm a little concerned that it's taking longer for him to catch up than I'd expect. But, holidays.

So many things have impacted this game and made it difficult to sort the recent replacement players. I'm not including myself in that group, but maybe I should. But, I feel like I put my thoughts into the game and have made tons of AI posts, which have been ignored in some cases and actively misinterpreted in others.

Anyway, this day is going to end soon and I hope town has better data and resets going forward.

Once T3's caught up and I've given more thought to the slot I'll be ready to post what I hope will be my final reads list of day 1.

i haven't had much of a chance to play today.

So you read three more pages?

What's your plan for catching up?

[fferyllt]

That's kind of a creepy thing to say after what happened in this thread last night.

I think you're just trying to sort of edgy-funny poke at your scum read, but yeah.

[fferyllt]

I was talking about the game...

So was I.

Is there a reason for me to talk to you? I have my read of you, and short of you tattooing "I'm Scum" on your forehead suddenly that read isn't likely to change in the next 24 hours.

You are reading a nonexistent tattoo on my forehead and that read is also not likely to change in the next 24 hours.

I'm generally not unreasonable player, but I see very little benefit to town in throwing a lot of posts at you atm.

[fferyllt]

ffery, you still haven't voted yet. Have you decided on a wagon? Here, I updated the vote list to reflect the changes.

fferyllt (3) - Save The Dragons, WINfried, Not Known 15
Save the Dragons (2) - frogsfrogs, Tejate Raichu
T3 (1) - Laplacian
frogsfrogs (1) - MegAzumarill

Not Voting (4) - T3, fferyllt

Yes. I saw your earlier post.

I'm going to give T3 a few more hours to do whatever he's going to do, and then I'll post my last Day 1 reads list, and probably vote at that time.

I don't like to jostle my wagon when there's energy behind it. The hop-ons and hop-offs are sometimes enlightening, in retrospect if not in the moment.

[fferyllt]

I was talking about the game...

So was I.

Is there a reason for me to talk to you? I have my read of you, and short of you tattooing "I'm Scum" on your forehead suddenly that read isn't likely to change in the next 24 hours.

You are reading a nonexistent tattoo on my forehead and that read is also not likely to change in the next 24 hours.

I'm generally not unreasonable player, but I see very little benefit to town in throwing a lot of posts at you atm.

But, if you have questions for me, or want to discuss other players with me I'm happy to do that.

[fferyllt]

Regretful.

This day didn't have to turn out like it has, but this slot is pretty damn tattered at this point.

I expect there's probably a 1-on, 1-off situation with my wagon, but I cannot think in teamsolve mode without more data.

How do you think scum would be positioning around town-me today?

[fferyllt]

That's part of what I'm wondering, but I also wonder about scum concerns regarding getting splashed by a last will and testament. Which is something that experienced scum would worry more about, probably. Particularly scum who know me by either experience or reputation.

Most of the new players in this game look like they have a fair bit of transferable mafia experience, but that doesn't translate to experience with/about me, unless they're in a PT with a scum player who does have that experience.

The murk is pretty thick and I don't always develop great reads under existential pressure. But, I do have a reputation.

[fferyllt]

I didn't really wanna talk about this but basically since my townread on him all frogs is giving me is creepy vibes and the feeling of being pocketed. But as I'm buying for now that meg is town i kinda had to give their pitch a serious consideration.

Tejate's pulled his slot out of the muck from my perspective.

I still feel like frogs immediately dropping his scumread of my slot is more likely to come from town than scum. I think scum would have wanted to see how town reacted first.

Laplacian hasn't moved and I don't think he can move up in my list. Just lots of odd little ishy reactions, but when he's challenged his responses always feel decent.

If he's scum, he's extremely calculated scum who has his approach and defense lined up before he makes a move. And he does that while reacting fairly quickly to changes in the game zeitgeist

Meg's a special case who I won't go after today but I do not trust at all.

The ones I haven't mentioned, are below the line.

I literally just forgot that Not Known is in the game. I counted 8 players and was like, who am I leaving out?

[fferyllt]

Do you think meg would really use their leverage as claimed cop to tell us to go after frogs? That feels like a really wasted opportunity to impact the game state if your days are already counted as scum. Why not make us go after you? And I am still biased by my read on meg that made me unvote them in the first place I guess.

That's where my thoughts about scum positioning are spinning.

An experienced player who ~just finished~ a game where we were both scum, though anonymous to each other until after the game who comes into

this game

, sees my play and scumreads me is in the splash zone. What I see in their reactions to me are a flash of paranoia when I reminded them of that game, and an opaque townread a day later.

STD is also in the splash zone but he can point at his long history of erroneously tunneling town players into the ground and say "oops".

They don't have to be scum together, though.

p-edit. I'm seeing considerably more than micro town pings from Tejate.

[fferyllt]

Speaking of things we didn't really want to speak about with others around, does anyone else feel a little bothered by the wording of this post?

Okay, Meg's frogs vote was a bad wagon, but cop claim has no cc sooo town they are for now. That reveal was a mess though.

I think this makes the bin/Tejate slot even more scummy. Two game layouts (A1 and A3) have a cop. A1 is cop + doc, A3 has an extra VT. Going back to my post 56, this means option #1 is even less likely as there's only a 50/50 chance of a 2nd townie role existing.

I'm not concerned by the consideration of role slots here, that is natural as we have a cop claim. I am not concerned by the consideration of me being scum, I think that suspicion of me is natural and expected, especially since I have no games on record here and I doubt I've played with anyone ITT elsewhere.

What does bother me here is that this wording. It feels like they're assuming that I am either VT or scum, but doesn't that seem off to you guys? We have not yet confirmed if the cop is even real. In fact it seems like Meg still has suspicion even if they're essentially untouchable for today's vote. So why, I ask, did they make this assumption? Is that really an assumption from a town mindset?

That's a good point. Not only have we not confirmed if the cop is real, Laplacian has Megs as "untouchable today".

[fferyllt]

scumreads me is in the splash zone.

scumreads me is in the splash zone.

Do you think anyone would believe you in this game if someone claims cop and says they scumread you and you call them scum? I mean they could at least not try to explicitly save you by saying they townread you .

(and that being said, assuming Meg is scum we're in a pretty good shape so I'm not seeing how that'd even concern me a lot at the moment.)

I don't think Megs is trying to save me. Do you?

I think we've exceeded the point where this conversation was useful to have right now.

this is a discussion for tomorrow's town.

[fferyllt]

Welp. I've saved a response to 825 to drafts for now.

I feel like this is winding down with a bunch of unanswered questions that may get lost in the day-end shuffle.

[fferyllt]

I'm townreading everyone who got in here and went to work for a couple hours.

This is the kind of fast freewheeling wide ranging posting that tends to cause a lot of scum players to freeze up and wait for things to calm down.

It's way more intimidating in large games, but still.

[fferyllt]

That's a good point. Not only have we not confirmed if the cop is real, Laplacian has Megs as "

untouchable

today".

WIN, can I get your opinion for this matter? I understand that Meg is essentially

untouchable

for voting today, but Laplacian seems to be acting as if Meg is

untouchable

from suspicion as well. Do you not find this unusual?

Also, what the hell is this "untouchable" line people are dropping. I never said that, and suddenly both FF and Tejate drop this nice, pithy phrase several times in quick succession. I'm not saying it's collusion, but that word literally never appeared in this game until then

you're right. what you said was "town for today". that piece of your post is sitting in my drafts right now.

[fferyllt]

fferyllt if town-fferyllt is really in there i expect a good hard think (and a frogs vote. thanks.)

I'm not looking forward to a day 2 star wars cantina band.

who makes sense as a partner to you?

[fferyllt]

kinda unimpressed with frog's response to sudden pressure. may be the time of night though.

[fferyllt]

I believe that puts me at E-1

I'm not up for the day yet. It's just after 5 AM my time.

I will claim and post some last thoughts after someone posts intent to hammer.

p-edit yep. E-1.

WINfried, you offered me the opportunity to potentially save myself by voting frogs. Think about why I didn't jump on that.

[fferyllt]

Actually I'll go ahead with some of the final thoughts, since I've been hitting refresh on my tablet instead of going back to sleep.

And there is literally only one townping I received on you since the entire game.

Ah... I apparently arrogantly assumed you townread me higher than that, because I didn't realize this was the case. I think this is in-character for you either way and I'm certainly not seeing scum motivation from this, so. There's that.

I can't exactly ask anyone to read through my whole previous game where I was scum but I can assure you this game has been way different for me. And that the difference is because I'm town now :I

The last paragraph of this post resonates. It's what I've been thinking all along -- that frogs' play here has much more clearly motivated and confident looking that the first game I spectated. Even when trying out others' arguments for them being scum, the differences from the earlier game were in the back of my mind.

Laplacian remains in the lower tier town. I'll pull up the post I saved to drafts last night. I agreed with frogs that it was better to let him answer the question about the exact nature of his stance on Megs. I stand by that though it's probably the proximate cause for me being at E-4.

WIN, can I get your opinion for this matter? I understand that Meg is essentially untouchable for voting today, but Laplacian seems to be acting as if Meg is untouchable from suspicion as well. Do you not find this unusual?

but cop claim has no cc sooo town they are for now.

What does this part of Laplacian's post convey to you?

I kinda wish I'd townread Prism strongly enough that I could just ignore Not Known's content, but I didn't. I have doubts about Prism because I appreciate how good she is at scum. I feel like this read would have been more strong in one direction or another if we'd inhabited the thread together for a while and had a chance for direct interaction. Not Known is firmly in my bottom tier.

So is T3.

And STD.

I really enjoyed having a few hours last night to interact in a gamesolving way. I hope some of the ideas we kicked around are helpful tomorrow.

Megs will be solved with time, but we'll learn nothing about the scum team composition with my elim. I urge caution, but I think there are enough town who already have caution that we're in good shape on that front.

I think the thing that has most held off my voting STD is the fact that he and my slot been so paired as a team since before I joined the game. and I know for a fact that team does not exist. So even though he's in my POE I've hesitated.

T3 is in the Meteor slot, and that was the first scumread I formed in my initial readthrough. aahlo's play was unreadable to me. I think he was probably playing A game, but not this one. I really wanted to see enough from T3 to reconsider or firm up the read.

STD's reasons for voting Taly/Me have seemed kinda half-baked and artificial.

{Winfried}
{frogs}
{Tejate, Laplacian}
------------------
{Megs}
------------------
{Not Known 15}
{T3, STD}

I'd feel a lot better about this game if I could have reached the point of putting another player above the first line. Maybe Megs will get there with more time.

[fferyllt]

the parenthetical is true. he did post after your claim.

I'm not buying this.

Vote: Not Known

[fferyllt]

this is the sorriest play I've seen in a long time though. beggars the imagination that he's scum. There's no way scum fake claim here to save town-me.

he's probably town but wtf.

[fferyllt]

unvote:

this game is cursed.

[fferyllt]

I'm informed of my alignment. which makes none of this make sense.

[fferyllt]

the optimal play if not known is town was to either counter claim immediately or try to get a result tonight on someone and cc tomorrow.

[fferyllt]

I was at e-4. where was this flash elim going to come from?

[fferyllt]

e-1 obv.

[fferyllt]

Options:

A) meg is honest-town, NK15 is lying-scum: game is actually solved, scum-NK15 had no reason to play like this if fferyllt wasnt his partner, he could have just happily sit there and chill. voting meg would win us the game.

B) meg is lying-scum, NK15 is honest-town: Meg is the correct vote here, fferyllts alignment isnt confirmed on way or the other.

C) meg is honest-town, NK15 is honest-town: impossible

D) meg is honest-town, NK15 is lying-town: in this case NK15 screwed the game as that probably means 2 dead townies and no solution are approaching here.

E) meg is lying-scum, NK15 is lying-town: I guess that is still pretty good even though a very selfish move.


I feel like NK15 is forcing our hands here now. Voting NK15 makes no sense as if NK15 truely is scum, the game is solved as only what Megs theorized makes sense to me.

Am I wrong somewhere? Miss anything?

This is where I'm at. I just hope it's not D. And I want to see more analysis like this because the last 4 hours has fried most of my circuits.

Also, I poured my first cup of coffee, heard a popping sound, and a lake of coffee suddenly formed on the counter top surrounding the bottom of my coffee cup.

I think this is a sign that I should go back to bed and pretend this day isn't happening.

[fferyllt]

When I flip town that will pretty much confirm that Not Known is pants-on-head town.

[fferyllt]

T3 could be scum.

I kinda want my elim to go through anyway because it will guilty the fuck out of Meg.

[fferyllt]

T3 could be scum.

I kinda want my elim to go through anyway because it will guilty the fuck out of Meg.

Provided we're not in world D.

In the Scum-NK worlds and world D, Not Known's counterclaim is basically a gamethrow.

I probably should have confidence that he'd never gamethrow, but I've seen some weird life choices by MS players.

Lim ffery then flip meg or nk
if we lim ffery then the cops get an extra check

"cops"

[fferyllt]

cops, as in cop claims

extra checks, though.

It's a strange turn of phrase and it pings. If the game weren't running around with its head on fire atm I'd be a lot more interested in elimming you today.

[fferyllt]

limming ffery is the mechanically correct play.
if there's no doctor, then mafia shoot someone who isn't the cop
if there is a doctor then i think mafia roleblocks the cop BUT ffery might also be roleblocker, in which case town just autowins

2/3 of the time then cop gets an extra check.

I have been blatantly playing with day 1 survival not on my agenda. Any theory that posits I'm something besides VT or Goon is flying in the face of a mountain of evidence to the contrary.

Make your argument for my elimination as you like, Roleblocker should be obviously off the table.

[fferyllt]

And since I know they are lying that is the most likely scenario

You know

I

am lying?

Please elaborate. And be sure to deal with the inconvenient fact that I have never once made a stance to survive this game day.

[fferyllt]

I mean your partner is putting themselves on a timer so that you can survive and now you are trying to survive by bringing that up so ....

Riiiight.

My flip is going to be so very inconvenient for you.

[fferyllt]

FWIW although I think T3's reactions have been +scum, I kinda agree with him that it probably makes sense to let both claimants get a chance to make it to D2 because the way and timing with which NK went about counterclaiming makes the choice of which claimant to eliminate today non-trivial.

[fferyllt]

I say get a chance because if we're in scenario D, one of them probably dies tonight.

[fferyllt]

Then who's wagon are you on today?

I don't often think my own miselim will improve a game state, but I'm on team elim-ffery.

I believe Meg is scum, but if I'm wrong the results will be near catastrophic if not game-losing.

[fferyllt]

{Winfried}
{frogs}
{Tejate, Laplacian}
------------------
{Megs}
------------------
{Not Known 15}
{T3, STD}

I'd feel a lot better about this game if I could have reached the point of putting another player above the first line. Maybe Megs will get there with more time.

{Winfried, Tejate}
{frogs, Not Known 15}
{Laplacian}
------------------
{Save the Dragons}
------------------
{T3, Megs}

I do feel a lot better!

[fferyllt]

I would certainly hope it's not scenario D, as that'd just be straight up throwing the game. There is no reason for a VT to CC town PR here, and NK does seem aware of this fact. That's a lot of two letter acronyms.

I'm a bit surprised you're on your own wagon here. Selfless to be sure, but I'm not convinced that it's wholly necessary.

Before we continue with the discussion, I'd like to ask that

any PRs besides doctor or jailkeeper

reveal yourselves now. If this is some baffling play by any mix of VT or scum, it's better we know now.

I have mixed feelings about this.

[fferyllt]

Me and ffery are at e-2 right now


Also note how ffeey has nk15 at bottom scumread until they become a 50/50 as scum and then flips it on its head when it matters

My read of NK has changed solely because of what my alignment says about his play.

And that's going to be a fact in evidence if you get your way.

[fferyllt]

I would certainly hope it's not scenario D, as that'd just be straight up throwing the game. There is no reason for a VT to CC town PR here, and NK does seem aware of this fact. That's a lot of two letter acronyms.

I'm a bit surprised you're on your own wagon here. Selfless to be sure, but I'm not convinced that it's wholly necessary.

Before we continue with the discussion, I'd like to ask that

any PRs besides doctor or jailkeeper

reveal yourselves now. If this is some baffling play by any mix of VT or scum, it's better we know now.

I have mixed feelings about this.

That's fair, but we already have way more information than we probably should for day 1. If these two are both fake claims, isn't it better that we have that information on the table for the entire rest of the game than the potential that we find something at night? I suppose it can wait a day if there's any real PR to CC, but...

I initially was going to flat out disagree with the request, "mixed feelings" means I see the potential benefit, but I'm not convinced it outweighs the benefit of an active PR getting an action tonight. If we're in the masons or FN world having confirmed town tomorrow without potentially having to sort two fake results, I think that's also a big benefit to town.

[fferyllt]

Ffery you gonna give intent or what?

What part of "I'm on team elim-ffery" do you not understand?

[fferyllt]

welcome to feryland

[fferyllt]

I'll move to ffery's weird self wagon if we can't hammer, but again I don't feel it necessary.

If my vote is needed to avoid no-elim, I'll vote Meg or myself at deadline.

I don't really want to vote myself because it removes some of the data from my wagon, but that's vastly preferable to no-elim.

[fferyllt]

Megs flipping town clears no one and makes my miselim happen at a really bad time for town. Probably on a Day 3 ELO. That's a future I don't want to happen.

Me flipping town clears Not Known, regardless of Meg's alignment IMO. Or at least makes town carefully weigh up all the possibilities.

[fferyllt]

If we are both town nk15 is scum because they cc me.

If we're both town, then why would scum-NK counterclaim town-you on the basis of "townreading" me? If scum can't kill you outright tonight, they can roleblock you.

Your mafia roleblocker theory though wrong and completely against how I'm playing this game day, at least doesn't involve NK gamethrowing as scum.

[fferyllt]

If we're both town nl15 is hurting their win chances regardless of alignment

I agree with that. But town-NK can have strong reads that override his willingness to follow correct play. Scum-NK never ever counterclaims you in the way he did, OR to save town-me. The latter is a fact not in evidence to anyone in the game but me. But, to me, it's a hard, cold fact about this game state.

[fferyllt]

sigh

[fferyllt]

Sigh.

[fferyllt]

[fferyllt]

Not a bad metaphor for this game day.

[fferyllt]

@Not Known

If you're town, that fake counter claim was fucking awful. Gamethrowing awful.

I'll have more to say about the whole damn mess in postgame.

[fferyllt]

While I have my guesses, I do not desire to hunt for the Mason today and I suggest you all keep your opinions to yourself.

Agree with this.

Reveal doesn't need to happen yet given the likely trajectory of this game day.

[fferyllt]

Let's move forward proceeding as if NK15 is confscum, if they are town then we're already in a pretty terrible position no matter what. Like I said, I will not listen to

any

move for a retraction. I want NK's blood today.

Happy scumday by the way, ffery.

Thanks!

How did you learn about scumday?!

[fferyllt]

Prism has a terrifying scum game. I've never played against scum-Prism, but I've modded/spectated.

Despite that, I've always town read her in our games. Someday I'm going to find out if I actually can differentiate her town vs scum play or if I've just been lucky.

[fferyllt]

Definitely worth discussing.

I'm not 100% convinced Not Known flips scum, sadly. We should probably talk about what makes sense re both possible outcomes.

From my perspective if he flips scum It's not the end of the world if I'm tomorrow's elim. There will be a Day 4 and one more chance to get the last scum.

My big fear is that he flips town and tomorrow is 3-2 and town loses if that ends in a mis-elim.

[fferyllt]

That said, I think today's play has to be to elim him.

[fferyllt]

Tejate who do you think was pushing me in a way that diverted from actual conversation?

[fferyllt]

Not Known isn't a mafia neophyte. Whatever motivates his play, he knows the risks of town fake claims/counterclaims are high, and can be unacceptably high in a newbie game.

[fferyllt]

Laplacian's trajectories in this game show a lot of reactivity to being scumread or pushed. He kinda has that trait in common with Not Known.

He also had a tendency on day 1 to go after low hanging fruit: binatog for much of the game. Then he said he was in the process of building a detailed case ("precise time stamps") on Taly based on his lack of presence at the point where I joined the game. He reacted to Not Known's vote with an OMGUS vote (he characterized it that way when he unvoted). From there he went to ahhlo, at a point in time when it looked like there wouldn't be defense against the wagon that was building on ahhlo. He put down the E-1 vote.

Then he voted me citing that I misquoted him. Which is fair. I didn't go back and check for who had posted "untouchable", but I remembered the word when someone else (Tejate, I think) mentioned it. As it turned out I had used the word in reference to my hunterr read which was a 2nd tier town grouping with Laplacian.

I was in the process of quoting the post where he said he would not vote Megs, Win or frogs on day 1 to ask Tehate if he felt "untouchable" was a good characterization. frogs popped up and said we should let Laplacian answer his own questions, which was a good idea, so I threw the post into drafts for later.

Anyway, from there Laplacian voted me because the whole "untouchable" thing left a bad taste in his mouth. I'm not going to call that OMGUS because I think the way the conversation about who he wouldn't vote day 1, it wasn't unreasonable for him to get bent out of shape over it.

And he hammered Megs, on the strength of the counterclaim.

Before that counterclaim happened, I was at E-2, and Laplacian put my wagon at E-1. I settled my affairs, paid Charon a coin and posted what was supposed to be my final reads list.

There's no getting around the fact that Not Known counterclaimed at the precise point in time to derail my wagon from going through. :/

We had about a half day left, so it's not wildly out in left field for Laplacian to cut the day off there.

Not Known and Megs were both lying. They were both giving off scummy vibes with the lies.

Anyway, the main ping Laplacian gave off to me a few different times on day 1 was the way he lagged that tiny, tiny bit and then would follow a player who would take a stance on a rapidly evolving situation. Specifically regarding the Binatog foofaraw early day 1 and the reactions to my first couple posts after I replaced in. But, the nature of his reactivity to being scumread or challenged gave off townfeels.

[fferyllt]

Casing Not Known feels silly, but I do want to document why I thought he was reactive to scumreads/pushes.

I was thinking about his exchange with STD, that culminated with this.

VOTE: Not Known 15

VOTE: STD
Any questions on why?

It was strange how he said he expected to draw votes if he unvoted me without counterclaiming. But, I think that was probably inventing a reason to counterclaim after thinking Megs' claim over.

[fferyllt]

Megs didn't even need to counterclaim at that point. In retrospect the panicky claim was a strong indicator Megs was a PR in distress. I usually catch those. :/

[fferyllt]

T3? Laplacian?

[fferyllt]

As for this, I'm not sure and I'd need to do some light (i.e. heavy) reading. There was quite a bit of discussion around your slot even before you replaced in.

Have you made any progress on this front?

I'm going to dig in after dinner and have a look at frogs and you.

At the rate this thread is moving it's going to be a very long 7 days.

[fferyllt]

I'm going to dig in after dinner and have a look at frogs and you.

Nope! netflix called.

Tomorrow.

[fferyllt]

That's a confession. As if it were needed.

I am leaning toward just ending this game day.

[fferyllt]

if night happens over this weekend I won't hate much free time for writing cases.

[fferyllt]

have not hate. tableting

[fferyllt]

nk15 busses as scum right
because townstumps

townstumps? is this a recent game?

[fferyllt]

nk15 busses as scum right
because townstumps

He was scum in FGO 2 and had his entire team in his scum pile. I don't know if he consistently buses as scum, but he has certainly been known to bus.

FGO 2: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=86932

This was a game where everyone played on anonymous alts. He was Servant Moon Cancer. All the alignments are in the OP.

[fferyllt]

It's E-1.

[fferyllt]

My only issue with hammering now is that I probably won't have much time for homework until Monday.

[fferyllt]

Be sure and post about once a day while we mark time to avoid being prodded. Newbie game prod timer is 36 hours.

[fferyllt]

I have some stuff that might be useful in anayzing scum-Prism.

In the Iceland Newbie game that I modded and Prism played, she replaced into a scum slot. She expected that surviving to ELO would make her highly suspicious. So her goal, as well as looking super town and solve-y while keeping town off balance, confused, and arguing with each other, was also to distance from her partner with the plan that he would go deep.

It didn't work out exactly that way, but you can see how she laid her plans in the threads I'll link.

I don't expect her to do exactly the same thing here because she documented what she was doing in extreme detail in the Iceland game.

But, it's still a window into her thought process as scum.

I won't have time to do heavy analysis of her play before Monday, and it's ok if we go to night before then from my perspective.

But, on the extremely slim chance that I get night killed I want town to have this data to consider.

Game thread: viewtopic.php?f=50&t=85593
Mafia PT: viewtopic.php?f=90&t=85591
Prism's personal PT, made public when the game ended: viewtopic.php?f=90&t=85642

[fferyllt]

Would you mind analyzing what you think these posts mean, then, T3? What are you getting from them?

scum is ffery, nk15 refused to put his vote where his case was

NK15's today-posts have eliminated my paranoia that he was town and gamethrowing for who knows why.

I'm not scum, but I feel so set up that I won't fight being elimmed tomorrow, because better Day 3 than at ELO. However, I want time to write up analysis, and do some gamesolving with players on day 3.

[fferyllt]

I just realized that there are officially only 2 people who have been here since game start. This has been something.

welcome to newbie games on ms

This is a little extreme even for newbie games on MS.

My crazy weekend has ended and I'm going to sleep.

I think it is worth staring at Prism's posts, and I'll spend some time reabsorbing her iso tomorrow. but it won't surprise me if she completely hid her intention.

[fferyllt]

I'm pulling together my thoughts into a post now. If anyone's itching to hammer, please hold off until I get a post or two in.

[fferyllt]

I kinda want to have more day to discuss but also let's not out the Mason so maybe I hammer this

What do you want to discuss? So far you've said very little beyond that you were scumreading NK15 and townreading your slot before you joined. And you're surprised that Megs was elimmed.

[fferyllt]

I've done the analysis I wanted to do today, and I'm waffling as to whether to post it because I'd kinda rather starve scum of information until tomorrow.

[fferyllt]

Alright I'll hammer in an hour if no objections

You're the main reason I'm not hammering, so no objections

[fferyllt]

Sigh.

On the Megs wagon, my scumread is Laplacian.

Off the wagon, it's murkier. But, I think Not Known's trajectory on STD is similar to how he buses partners.

I think it would be good for the remaining mason to not claim today.

[fferyllt]

I'm not surprised at all that he was the NK.

[fferyllt]

Why not surprised
To me I thought I'd be a likely night kill

Why did you expect to be the NK?

Tejate has been deeply involved in the game since his replace-in and a town leader, and Binatog's soft claim might still have been a concern/consideration to the scum among us.

[fferyllt]

My thoughts on T3:

I think he has more experience playing with me than anyone else who was in this game, except maybe Prism. Which is not saying a lot, and all his experience has been with me in a town-hydra. I can grasp that I might be paranoia-inducing, though. His stance on me, even when I have agreed with him that I don't belong in elo (and I think I said it first), has a caricature-like simplicity. It seems mostly based on NK15 with not much about my own play and stances aside from my reaction to NK's counterclaim and sudden declaration that I was town.

In general, I feel like I've been set up, though maybe there was no grand scheme involved in how day 1 played out. T3 is the player most taking advantage of the optics to push me.

BUT

There's a huge Town+ for his slot IMO, in Prism's page 1-2 push on his predecessor. As town in newbie games she will often go after the first mild +scum indicator as a sort of demonstration of how to get out of RVS and start looking for real reasons to vote. Scum Prism tends to distance from her partner but not as quickly and emphatically as she did here...in my limited experience. That final phrase is the kicker.

[fferyllt]

frogfrogs

The backbone of this read is really meta from their first MS game where they was scum. They played well as scum against a stacked town, but their play in that game lacked fluidity. They were not reacting to game events in real time for the most part and their reactions were cautious.

In this game, I don't see the same kind of caution and care in taking stances and I see a fluidity that comes off very town. I don't feel like their being on the Megs wagon negates that. All of town were presented with a paradox -- what turned out to be 2 fake claims.

I realize there's something I didn't investigate yesterday, though I'll get to that within 24 hours.

[fferyllt]

Well STD was off wagon soo

Indeed.

I'm not convinced beyond a shadow of a doubt that scum wouldn't be on separate wagons there.

[fferyllt]

I think this clears t3 as town cause t3 scum should just shoot me tbh

That is such a shallow take.

[fferyllt]

Why didn't you do any real reading?

Also, you didn't answer this yesterday, which was ok because foregone conclusion who was getting elimmed. But now's a good time to circle back.

I kinda want to have more day to discuss but also let's not out the Mason so maybe I hammer this

What do you want to discuss? So far you've said very little beyond that you were scumreading NK15 and townreading your slot before you joined. And you're surprised that Megs was elimmed.

[fferyllt]

it's more than that. I townread nk's pivot off me and wasn't nearly as skeptical of the timing of his claim as I should have been.

I'm still ticked off about meg's fake claim, but it did lead to a 1 for 1, and elimming me today hopefully sets town up to win tomorrow.

I don't think nk would have cc'd a mason claim.

tablet posting for a bit. pardon any autocorrects

[fferyllt]

I'm a reads-based player to a fault. I wasn't going to put my own townreads aside yesterday or today because of who was on/off the Megs wagon.

Tejate being gone today was the worst outcome from my perspective because he was someone to gamesolve with. :/

Part of me wants to heckle everyone into stepping up and start solving tomorrow today. If that doesn't happen I can't really do the work I should be doing. Downsides, though.

[fferyllt]

I'm a reads-based player to a fault. I wasn't going to put my own townreads aside yesterday or today because of who was on/off the Megs wagon.

Tejate being gone today was the worst outcome from my perspective because he was someone to gamesolve with. :/

Part of me wants to heckle everyone into stepping up and start solving tomorrow today. If that doesn't happen I can't really do the work I should be doing. Downsides, though.

It was about hitting mason though, which would happen off wagon

What do you glean from Tejate being the kill?

[fferyllt]

I'm scum I shoot t3 cause he would be the only one off wagon left

If t3 is scum then same to me imo

Talk me through this.

The on-wagon players are all suspect (I don't subscribe to this, but it's your line of thought, so)
Scum-you would shoot the other offwagon player, and shift attention from the on-wagon players to the off-wagon who didn't die.

[fferyllt]

You seemed to recognize that element of the gamestate pretty quickly yesterday.

[fferyllt]

I'm surprised Tejate Raichu got voted. I assumed the last maf would want to leave as many people as possible alive who voted for Meg, since were were naturally the most suspicious

You did a fade yesterday. :/

[fferyllt]

you seemed quiet, and weren't around much. Day 1 after I replaced in you were more of a presence.

[fferyllt]

I went away to let the thread breathe. :/

[fferyllt]

I'm concerned about the overall lack of posting. There was a good reason for it yesterday because the elim was a foregone conclusion on obv and eventually confessed scum, and we had a mason to protect.

We still have a mason to protect, but it's time to put some gamesolving effort in.

[fferyllt]

I started some double isos with Prism/not known and living slots but didn't get very far.

yet.

Will try to finish up and write up my thoughts about it tomorrow.

[fferyllt]

Here.

Not hammering.

I want to finish the double isos with Prism/Not Known.

[fferyllt]

Fine with my vote atm.

Might swap to Binatog or Dragons. Not opposed to Laplacian/Meteor.

Only townlean is frogs but should review when I have more time

I'm not forcing it

Prism

, this game is denser than others in terms of posting rate relative to content.

Plus I've got my hands full with IRL work and other games

Expecting reads from me on various players by now is reasonable, and it's also reasonable to assume this post is some sort of deflection from solving as I've been accused of that before, but that's not what is happening.

I am concerned you're expecting me to townread resisting my pressure to vote, and I do not. What do you think of the "gamestate" at the moment, given its high density, low activity, and focus on a PR soft?

I think

Frogs'

suspicion of my posts being potential TMI was valid.

I do not think it was a TMI assertion in the sense that most of the site uses, see post 50. Can you be more specific?

Also,

Prism

, my initial read on you was more of a way to help me read you rather than a definitive statement. You seemed cautious about my townping on you but it doesn't register as a mafia cautious to me.

...Am I supposed to be cautious of a townping on me as mafia?

Prism's vote was on my slot at the time of this post.

I'm interested in the bolded.

Prism in my experience tends to distance from her partners because she makes contingency plans on not making to ELO because in newbie games at some point it can become questionable that a very experienced player who isn't delivering scum elims will continue to be townread. She tries to set up her partner to go deep.

So, an offhand willingness to vote her partner while always finding reasons to vote elsewhere in the moment is something that wouldn't surprise me in this game.

I wouldn't expect her to tear down a town player others are townreading, but to shape her play around encouraging them when they're wrong.

Don't have time to play today, will try to come back around tomorrow.

Not really thrilled with Dragons' contribution. I can guess at reasoning but I don't like to guess, and those reads can even be right and have that catchup still do zero for me.

You'd make an epic door-to-door salesman.

UNVOTE: Binatog13

...What about that response was persuasive to you?

frogfrog i'm curious what makes you believe STD is town?

Scum have to give us something to blend in, Dragons outright refuses LOL. I doubt it's a triple psychology situation. He's given us a few reasonable

seeming

reads, albeit without context? I expect he'll give us more later on, or if he doesn't I'd definitely vote him.

I'm very sure this is null for STD. STD does this as town and knows it won't be scumread. I can go back and look into a scumgame of his but I would be completely shocked if he did not do exactly the same thing.

I think it's bad play regardless, though STD is likely to disagree and claim that a quiet approach pays dividends as town too.

Like these two posts. Though I may be confbiasing frogs, I feel like these two posts are exactly how Prism interacts with players she expects to have to work with.

At this point in the game I feel very in limbo.

I don't share the townreads on WINfried, because while the content and thinking are there, he is noticeably not a brand new player and I think most of his play is pretty straightforward to fake. I was concerned about their response to me initially before realizing that the "salesman" description was sarcastic. At this point I accept that I will have to put in real work and actually track/grill them over time. I think the rest of the table is being hasty, but I see no reason to scumread the slot.

frogsfrogs is a bit different in that they're less experienced than WINfried and even more proactive, often without a direct motive (ie. pushing a player). I'd be mildly surprised if they were scum and am mostly just waiting to confirm.

Laplacian/Meteor give a lot of reasoning but I don't feel strongly about them either way. I townlean Meteor's defense of Binatog but am concerned it is TMI. Both are likely town for activity+reasoning by default. I've been over Binatog.

ishrar slot/Dragons have barely posted and I can't read them. ishrar confirming but never posting is unfortunately +scum, though it is unfair to the player taking over. Dragons is not even trying to scumhunt at the present.

I'm voting Taly because I found him to be virtually a free read in Slaughter Hour. The fact that he has not been that way this game concerns me, and I think he would have followed me onto a vote were he town. I also really feel that the resistance to voting in response to my suggestion was performative rather than legitimately contemplative of the pros/cons.

I don't like Taly's posts, think half the game takes time and flips to confidently sort but have as default-town, and the other half aren't really posting.

Actually, maybe I'm wrong about how Winfried looked to her at that point in the game.

The more I think about it the more tempted I am to vote Dragons.

Shame I only have one.

It is worth emphasizing that "town by default" here does not mean I actively townlean their play or oppose their vote. If no one bits on Taly I am fine to vote Laplacian, but they're not my first choice right now. Maybe I could help run them up to E-2 for something arbitrary but I'd rather cast my line elsewhere.

It just blows my mind to think that two SEs watch a cluster of active town wack each other with pool noodles, rolefish, all while failing to actually wagon anyone, and don't move to help.

I feel like this maybe spews STD town. She was setting up a path off Taly's wagon here.

Calling Laplacian null and keeping him vaguely in the elim-pool while apparently actively scumreading Taly/STD stands out but I'm not sure in which direction. :/

It's almost too much mention. Though I think hunterr kinda closed her off from continuing to push Binatog at that point.

Notable that somewhere around here she stopped pushing Meteor.

[fferyllt]

Interesting.

[fferyllt]

VOTE:

Very interesting.

[fferyllt]

Well, I said I wouldn't vote MegAzumarill without a CC. There is one, so...

VOTE: MegAzumarill

I think that's hammer. If they flip town, NK15 tomorrow and we should get a scum either way.

Actual interesting quote.

[fferyllt]

Please do explain why you hammered your mason partner.

[fferyllt]

My eyebrows just raised right into my hairline.

[fferyllt]

If he actually is the mason I REALLY want to know why he hammered his partner.

[fferyllt]

Anyway looking at this page

viewtopic.php?p=13190310#p13190310

Ffery why were you seeming unsure of NK's alignment here

Because I thought fake counterclaiming might not be out of his townrange. Hence the comment about words in postgame. He was kind enough to remove all doubt with his first day 2 post, which I'm eternally grateful for.