Newbie 718 - Game Over!

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mrifnoc\

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Whoa there. Two joke votes are fine and dandy, but three makes Vampers at L-2. That's no longer a couple of joke votes, but a joke wagon!

Point?

Vote: Braeden

Double posts are total scum tells. (joking of course)

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un vote: popsofctown

Vote: vamparific

Lets have some fun!!!

Braeden, by saying, let's have some fun, it seems you are acknowledging that a wagon was forming. If you had any sense at all, wouldn't you count how many people were in the wagon before you got in?

Better question, even if you thought you were making an L-2 wagon, can you explain to me how you were leading our town to victory? I see you creating disorder, which scum like, i see you killing an innocent, which scum like, but i don't see even the obscurest way you were helping the town with your vote. You'd already made your joke vote. How many joke votes does someone get?

Normally this would be where i vote to take my position, but apparently the rest of this town phails too much to be trusted with L-4. (Yes, i gave you people L-4 and you slaughter someone). So I'll just

FoS: Braeden

for now.
It's a little bit disgusting that my random vote on Vamparific for his avatar led to his death. I think i might not ever random vote in a newbie game again.

Forgive me for being a newb and just going with who had the most votes first. And even then it was uneven, so some people had to go back and revote.

Plus, i'm sorry for being new to this but i had to go look up on the wiki for what FoS means (Finger of Suspision for who else didn't know), and still don't know what L-4 and L-2 wagon mean, therefore...

vote: popsofctown

i understand if you've played enough to understand these terms, but it just doesn't work for people like me that need to know the literal before using the abbriviations >.<

That has to be the most ridiculous reason to vote for someone ever. Why would the fact that he used those terms indicate he was scum? Or do you not even care if he's town or not? L-2 and L-4 mean lynch minus 2 and lynch minus 4. It tells how many votes the person is away from being lynched. It's very, very common language on this forum. Get used to it.

As for the vampirific lynch: OMG! What were you guys thinking? I honestly fail to understand how you could fail to realize you were lynching the guy. There was only 25 posts in the thread, so how could you not see that he had 2, 3, then 4 votes already? It's not like you had a long thread to read.

Ok, ranting over, down to business:

FOS: Braeden, Bellarin

VOTE: boarder_control

You should NOT have hammered like that.

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EBWOP:

Vote: boarder_control

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I think I'll leave my vote on boarder_control. It's not just how he unapologetically hammered a completely non-suspicious player with no discussion nor claim (mostly that).

But what bothers me is his last response:

sorry for the inactivity. it's been busy over here, moving between cities for christmas, etc.

having three misguided townies jumping onto the same wagon seems highly unlikely so...

FOS: boarder_control, braeden, bellarin

and boarder_control (can i call you bc?), just curious, why the interest in finding the reason for the no kill?

Bc's fine. I find it odd that the mafia wouldn't want to capitalize on our day one townie kill.

It feels as if he's just trying to seem like he doesn't know what's going on with the mafia's decision, i.e. suggest that he's not a part of the mafia.

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I think I'll leave my vote on boarder_control. It's not just how he unapologetically hammered a completely non-suspicious player with no discussion nor claim (mostly that).

But what bothers me is his last response:

sorry for the inactivity. it's been busy over here, moving between cities for christmas, etc.

having three misguided townies jumping onto the same wagon seems highly unlikely so...

FOS: boarder_control, braeden, bellarin

and boarder_control (can i call you bc?), just curious, why the interest in finding the reason for the no kill?

Bc's fine. I find it odd that the mafia wouldn't want to capitalize on our day one townie kill.

It feels as if he's just trying to seem like he doesn't know what's going on with the mafia's decision, i.e. suggest that he's not a part of the mafia.

You seriously don't think it's odd that the mafia wouldn't kill some one to gain a big advantage? You are right, I'm not sorry I hammered like that at all. I don't think I'm the only one to blame for that. There were FOUR other votes on him and some of you just played dumb saying that you weren't paying attenion, Well that sucks you should have been paying atteniontot he game.

Yes, I do think it's odd for mafia to not make a kill. But that's assuredly not what happened. It's very much more likely that we have a doctor in this game and he protected the mafia target.

And of course you're not the only one to blame. But you're the only one not accepting any responsibility for his lynch which is funny because you admittedly did it purposefully and all the other voters stated that it was unintentional.

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Hrm. Soon as in this game day or later? If later then I can't in good conscience follow your vote because I don't know your reasoning. I can make some assumptions as to why you're voting Bell, (and if my main assumption is correct, then you have good reason to do so), but I don't know for sure.

Anyway, I'm leaving my vote on BC (still ) based on what we have, but I'm interested in hearing Merc's reasoning.

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Happy new year, everybody! Hope everyone's holidays were good.

I got the prod. I'm surprised Bellarin still has her vote on pops and I don't like it. That said, since BC's condoning it as well as all that other stuff I've talked so much about I'll keep my vote on him. I also suggest someone else put him L-1.

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Well, technically I'm voting for you because you prematurely hammered an innocent townie based on no evidence with no claim, and when told that such actions are not favorable for the town ever, you clearly thought otherwise.

The additional reason was the Bellarin issue. Of course you didn't say you condoned her actions because condone means to overlook an illegal or bad action. And you excused it in this post:

Wow by the end of the day everyone's going to be scummy. You keep trying to just call people out to defend themselves. Your being
really aggressive by pointing fingures and I really can't trust you at all.

sounds like you believe bellarin's actions aren't scummy. is that the case?

I believe it was bad reasoning. I looked up the lingo after i read the post. I personally thought it was a learning experience. I really don't want to go after another random person again today. It seems liek the mafia are just going to let us kill each other off because we're not even close to voting for one of them. thats why I thin there wasn't a night kill.

Like someone else said: bad reasoning = suspicious. And to say that you don't think it was scummy but bad reasoning

Think about like this: If she were town, she would want to lynch mafia, right? So that means she wants to analyze people's actions to determine who is the most likely to be mafia. Now how would the fact that pops using said lingo indicate in any way that he is more likely to be mafia such that it warrants a vote. The game is not called "People You Don't Like" where you try to kill off people unfavorable to you!

It's called "Mafia," and you want to make sure it's mafia you kill even if its someone who's defended you the entire game. As a matter of fact, someone who does that may even be more likely to be mafia because they might just be doing that to get on your good side, and to look good if you ever get killed. They can say "Hey look. I defended the town player. Why would I defend the town player if I were mafia." That's a simple case of the scum tactic called "Wine In Front Of Me (WIFOM)" which is explained in detail in this link: http://mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=Wifom

Anyway, this post is getting rather long-winded. Point is, I'm leaving my vote on you. Still waiting to hear from Bellarin though.

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Unvote

With the information you have, that was definitely the right move to make. Now we have a reasonable chance of hitting scum early on this game (since 3 of 9 players are now cleared). I still can't believe he hammered without a claim though.

@Bellarin - those votes were D1 random joke votes. People use them in almost every game to get the game started and nobody usually intends to pressure and especially not lynch any of the votees so you can't really read to far into them.

Also, I didn't mean to be condescending to you (or you BC) if I was. It's just you have to understand that doing some of the things you were doing WILL get you lynched in other games. I want to make sure you guys know why and understand how your actions will likely be viewed so you can improve as mafia players.

And finally, I agree with pops and Braeden. Bellarin was the next person on my list. I can't say I don't find her accusations suspicious.

Vote: Bellarin

I just noticed that over here on MS you guys always use colons for your votes. I started doing it without even realizing it.

"oh noez i cot teh MS"

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Did Bell just lynch herself?

@Pops - Not necessarily. If we instead got the setup with two goons and a doc and you were scum, there wouldn't be anyone to counterclaim cop. Additionally, you would know (assuming you're scum) there was no cop based on the fact that neither of you are roleblockers, so the argument that "it would be crazy as scum to take a risk like this" can't really clear you (just in case you were planning on making it).

Depending on how the cards fall with this Bell thing and after tonight, we may be lynch-or-lose. I think it would be a fatal mistake to overlook you as a possible suspect tomorrow.

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Braeden, if pops is telling the truth, then that means there's a mafia roleblocker (a role that stops another's action, read the setup) out there and he obvious knew that pops was the cop.

The mafia didn't try to kill him because there's supposedly a doctor out there who would've protected the cop. Chances are the mafia was trying to hit the doctor by aiming at one of the quieter players since doctors generally tend to try to avoid attention and thus post rarely and mildly.

But all that aside, no matter what anyone says do not be hasty in casting your vote. If we make the wrong lynch today, then we may lose after the mafia's night kill.

Unfortunately, we have a scant amount of information to draw on because we only have 6 pages of discussion (do you see why it sucks to rush lynches, BC?).

My gut says pops is trying to pull a brilliant WIFOM and fakeclaim this game and is covering for his buddy, BC. I have a little bit of evidence to support it, but frankly not enough to suspect that alternative over the more likely possibility that he's telling the truth and one of the three others (Braeden, merc, rice) are scum.

@merc - you never explained your reason for voting Bell. Please do.

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Oh, dang that kind of sucks. I expected to have to fight a CC or something, but i didn't think i could end up "scum until proven cop" like this .

Yeah, Bell just lynched herself. I'm not really happy with it either, it looks pretty clear it's a self-vote against here win condition. I should double check whether this mod counts self-votes... he apparently does .

I meant to respond to this too. "Scum until proven cop" is the wrong way to put it. More like "Copclaim being scum cannot be discounted as impossible." You never know if a person is making a really ballsy move, especially when the player is experienced with this game like yourself.

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Just a few questions for everyone:

@pops - who did you target last night?

@Rice - who do you suspect is most likely scum?

@Braeden - same question as Rice

@BC - do you believe pop's claim or do you think he could have fakeclaimed?

@merc - what's your take on everybody?

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That makes sense to me., pops. I was really only asking to test your claim a little bit, and I'm satisfied with the response. Really though, I wanted more to hear from the other players (especially BC).

But I thought about it and realized that we have two other alternatives than simply looking for mafia and lynching t I'll list the pros and cons of both.

Option 1:
Having our doc claim. (If you're the doc, DO NOT claim until the majority of us say with certainty that this is the option we want.

Pros:
-If the claim went uncountered, we'd have at least one confirmed townie in the doc, and possibly a second with the N1 protection target
-We'd have a greatly increased chance of hitting scum (4 unconfirmed - 1-2 newly confirmed = 2-3 possible suspects: 66-100% chance) from what we have now (me, rice, merc, and braeden -- so 25% not counting the possibility that pops and BC are scum!)
-If the mafia fakeclaim, we still have a 50% chance with the fake docs or a 50% chance with the other unclaimed players

Cons:
-The mafia could fake claim
-If our doctor gets lynched, we lose automatically because there would be nothing to stop the tonight's NK.

** *** ** *** ** *** ** *** ** *** **

Option 2:
Going with a NL today.

Pros:
-We wouldn't be able to lose the game tonight
-We might gain more information from the doc (a successful protect) can confirm a player, or if one of the unconfirmed die which increases our chances

Cons:
-No chance of a cop investigation tonight
-Our doctor might get NK'd causing the town some harm if the game proceeds to the next night

Now, I'm more leaning toward Option 2 as opposed to the first or neither. We seem to have more to gain from it than lose, whereas the doc scenario becomes a 50/50 guessing game.

What do you all think?

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I'm the same as pops. A doc with a (new) innocent can near win this game for us. But if not, then definitely no lynch. I'm not unhappy with that alternative.

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Well, pops has claimed cop and his claim has held up under scrutiny. You've coasted pretty quietly though a lot of this game. It's a lot easier to figure that scum would play more passively than for scum to straight out fakeclaim early in the game.

Also, the RBT/Merc pairing seems likelier than the BC/Pops one. Everything between you seems so... forced. Still, I'd like to hear from our replacement and get his input on the situation.

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I'm not going to try to blame you for the Bellarin lynch because, like you said, there was little you could do about it, and Bell's suicide was hardly your fault.

You must see though that I'm put in a hard place. Unless BC's replacement counterclaims (I forgot that BC was MIA pops), I have no reason to not believe Braeden's claim since there was no kill N1 and I could see no reason for the mafia to pass up on a kill that early in the game when the town didn't have any information to make sense of the kill. It essentially would have been a carte blanche for the mafia so there HAS to be a doc.

Now, preventing another doc claim that leaves a choice between a BC/pops scum pairing and a merc/RBT pairing (by the way, does anyone deny that these are the only two plausible possibilities?). Thus far, all of pops' actions have seemed logical for a cop to make and his behavior for the past few days seem pro-town to me. I have indeed poked him, accused him of trying to pull of a smooth move, and yet his copliness has not been swayed. But, merc, understand that I know pops could still full well be clever (very very clever) scum.

I have reread and reread have only found that it could just as likely be either party. At this point it's a guessing game, but I do insist on hearing from BC's replacement before proceeding since to do otherwise would be silly.

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By the way, I meant to say to merc:

Blind!? I more than anyone pursued the possibility of pops' claim being false. I have read and reread this thread and to say that my considerations are "blind" is frankly quite insulting. Obviously, there's no easy answer to this, or one of the parties would have pointed this out and this game would be done with.

Try to look at the game from outside of your perspective, particularly from mine. Then tell me what you have to say.

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Please do continue this.

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Well, I meant the general discussion (I was liking the way it was going), but the post is appreciated.

Indeed, we cannot just be expected to take merc's word for it that he has a vanilla townie role. I was trying to get him to see that when I said "look at it from my perspective."

I would make the decision now, except that we've yet to hear from BC's replacement and I will not vote until we do.

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I'm going to have to agree with the logic on the RBT lynch. I find it most likely that she turns out scum. I'll give her another chance at rebuttal before I put her at L-1 though. She's actually been lying low though which indicates to me a scumarine.

And merc, as to your request for elaboration, I thought I answered it, but I don't mind explaining again: when it comes down to the choice between you and pops, I tend to favor pops because he been extremely active and engaged in town discussion and there have been many chances for him to at least drop a scumtell or two. Some things he's done have aroused suspicion, but he's never really acted in a way in discordance with someone telling the truth and in his position.

You on the other hand have been comparatively quieter and have stayed away from the spotlight. You were against the doc claim which turned out quite well for town. That said, it's not like there's any glaring flaws in your play, it's just that from what I've seen, I have more reason to believe that pops in town and therefore that you are scum.

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Also, the RBT/Merc pairing seems likelier than the BC/Pops one.

Everything between you seems so... forced.

It seems you are talking about a "vibe" rather than specific bits and pieces, but I'm at a bit of a loss as to how I gave that impression.

Oh, I see. That comment was mostly regarding the argument between you and RBT. The reason being that if RBT was being as ridiculous as you say she was, the back and forth would really be necessary to prove her wrong/show that she's being ridiculous. I got the impression that the argument was staged for the benefit of the town. I have nothing concrete, only suspicions about the motives of everyone's actions (due in part to the short nature of this game ). If I did, then this would be over and done with.

Anyway, I've about had it with waiting for RBT. If she hasn't piped up by this afternoon, I'm voting her.

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That's it.

Vote RBT

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Is that GG? :/

Duh, 6 players means 4 to lynch. Would like to see RBT post before anyone decides to hammer though.

pops, while I was wrong about who you voted, I'd like to hear your comment about why an "alternative lynch" needed to be pushed. I'd also dearly like to hear from F1fth and especially Braeden as to why they wanted to hop on the wagon so quickly. Day 1 was already short, and day 2 wasn't a whole goldmine of information either. Most of us here had honest or dishonest suspicions of Bellarin, but we seem to be good at passing up opportunities for intformation

I'm sorry but this is what I was talking about when I said "staged".

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I'm not surprised Braeden died. I think we can say with certainty now though that Grandi is cleared since there is no way he could be scum and pops be town.

That leaves us with the decision as to whether pops is a lying goon, or merc is a lying roleblocker. Unfortunately, in this regard, we are much in the same boat as we were yesterday. The big difference here is that I can look back with the knowledge that RBT is scum and hopefully find something from there. I'm not voting until far later in the game day, so no worries about a speedlynch.

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By the way, I meant to say to merc:

Blind!? I more than anyone pursued the possibility of pops' claim being false. I have read and reread this thread and to say that my considerations are "blind" is frankly quite insulting. Obviously, there's no easy answer to this, or one of the parties would have pointed this out and this game would be done with.

Try to look at the game from outside of your perspective, particularly from mine. Then tell me what you have to say.

Okay, I'm happy to concede that you're the person that questioned the pops claim more than any of the rest of us.

I should clarify that I was more referring to the 'everything between me and RBT seemed forced' statement. If you care to look at it from my perspective, then the only way anything of mine was "forced" was that RBT decided to lay it on so thick and fast that he got it wrong in the end. Finally he decides to "unvote, but I still think you're scummy". Of course I'm going to point those things out.

If you would like to tell me how you think the interaction between us was forced, I'd be happy to see what you have to say on the matter.

For the record, the issue I have with pops' claim is his timing. I agree that pending any counterclaim from the BC replacement, there's not a whole lot to disbelieve in terms of Braeden's claim. However pops didn't have to claim D2 - he hadn't found scum and he nerfed his own role. In his favour of course are:

-the absence of a counterclaim
-lets face it, who wouldn't have investigated BC given what happened D1?

I have to disagree with your analysis of the possible scum pairings. For the purposes of illustrating my point it doesn't matter which claim is false. If pops happens to be lying, that doesn't necessarily say a whole lot about BC. If Braeden is lying, then you aren't necessarily scum. Therefore, the probable scum pairings in the absence of a counterclaim are (in no particular order):

pops/merc
pops/BC
pops/RBT

As I have said a few times before, I'm working on the knowledge here that one of the claims is false. Therefore, RBT and I cannot be a scum pair.

Ok, so you discounted the RBT/merc scum pairing because you said you knew one of the claims was false. You said you knew this because you knew that you were a vanilla townie. But if you used that as evidence to eliminate pairs that you thought were impossible, why did you eliminate RBT/merc but not pops/merc?

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@merc -- the assumption you made (that one of the claims was false) was based on the reasoning that you knew you were a vanilla town, but if you used the fact that you were vanilla town into your reasoning anyway, I was wondering why you didn't discount the merc/pops pairing.

At any rate, it matters little:

Also, a thought occurs to me that pops could be lying through his teeth on that claim.

If mafia know that there's a doctor, and they're really two goons, then they could easily fakeclaim to get the doc's protection out of the way.

BC could easily be his scumbuddy too, as he went out of the way to protect him like that.

Got it. All things aside, this was what really helped me to make up my mind. RBT was the first one to suggest the fact that pops could be lying and was really the one who started me on that line of thought. The way she even puts it as an afterthought implies to me that she didn't just want to take the cop claim lying down and was hoping we would look into it.

The argument for scum distancing is slightly valid, but there's was never really a connection between the two in the first place, and trying to start a bandwagon on a claimed (and practically confirmed at that point) scum buddy seems to me a bit overboard.

Anyway, sorry for ending the day so quick, but based on everything I don't see my mind changing later. Let's see how it turns out for us.

Vote Merc

Whether you be town or scum, pops, well played (you better not be scum).

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I can't say I knew it because obviously I didn't, but I had a gut feeling all along. I was looking for any excuse to believe pops was scum, and there was nothing even close to conclusive there.

Well, we did the best we could given our shitty first couple days. I'm so done with Newbie games... it really ruins the game for town.

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Shit, I shouldn't say nothing. There was the early claim, and the hesitation to hammer RBT, but come on! If I had gotten pops lynched and it turned out he was the cop I would have looked like the biggest jackass on MS.