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Post Post #18 (isolation #0) » Sun May 17, 2009 4:17 pm

Post by Amished »

Vote: SustainRelease


I really want to see the results of first post claimed random voting hitting scumpartners. Somehow I doubt it's that high. Any and all votes right now could be distancing, so I don't put much stock into that either. I'd start posting shenanigans to try to get us out of the random phase, but today isn't a good day right now
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Post Post #23 (isolation #1) » Mon May 18, 2009 4:02 am

Post by Amished »

@Sustain: So try to get to know us or allow us to get to know you. Ask questions, post opinions, vote for somebody....
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Post Post #30 (isolation #2) » Tue May 19, 2009 4:16 am

Post by Amished »

First off, I want to apologize to everybody, I'm typically more active than this, r/l and summer has just started to really get going taking time away from Mafia.

Next, onto my suspicion.

Typically the RVS lasts longer than this. However, with Raivann's posts looking over it I believe I can put out a start to a case against him.

At first I thought that Rai's vote/comment in 4 was flippant and part of the joke voting stage. But with post 6 it's seems like he's trying to put out a confirmation bias. Also, if Rai truly thought Ham and I were scum, why wouldn't you vote for the player with more votes on them (me) at the time?

Back to 6, to justify any vote with something unrelated to the game is outrageous, and a mild scumtell in my eyes. Raivann's continued questioning of hamburger is quite honestly a bunch of BS. Random.org can just as well give a random number, and there can be *no indication of distancing what-so-ever*.

Az's #7 is right on (the first two lines, the next two could be as well, I don't know history as well as I should)
Raivann in 10 wrote:I appear overly townie because i am obvtown and I'm looking to string up some scum.
No, you are not obvtown, and you trying too hard to push a weak case makes you more likely to be obvscum than obvtown. Mostly because townies don't really need to try to appear obvtown, because they are. Scummers have to try to appear town because they aren't. Your trying is showing.

For the bussing discussion: I guess I have a different meaning of bussing. One vote in RVS stage isn't bussing, it's just voting for them. Bussing to me is down the line when they actually do something scummy, then voting for them. It makes it harder to spot and you can then go on other people's cases to help build your own against your partner.

@arelian: Or he thinks that the "case" against hamburger is bogus much like I do, and therefore is helping to defend against a weak case. I do this all the time in all of my games. It could be #1 of your options in 25, but I'm leaning against that one right now.

@Sustain: MMMMMM OMGUS vote <3

Unvote
vote: Raivann
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Post Post #37 (isolation #3) » Tue May 19, 2009 8:57 am

Post by Amished »

Most cases against somebody are scum-cases, Raivann.

I didn't buddy up to anybody, I agreed with his logic, and I didn't feel the need to retype his post. I felt cutting down on repetitive quotes would help keep the game running smoothly.

I also never accused Arelian of being scum, so I don't know where/why you decided to state that he's most pro-town. Disagreeing of points happens regardless of alignment. So just because I disagree with Arelian over one thing that he brought up that wasn't sure about what possibility it was, and I gave my opinion hardly classifies as me thinking anybody is scum. If I can see a pro-town reasoning behind even bad logic, or lack of logic or good logic, even if I have another differing opinion does not make me instantly think they're scum.

@Camn: Pretty sure Raivann did. If he's able to kill, that means he must be mafia!!!! :O :O :O :O ........... >_>
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Post Post #41 (isolation #4) » Tue May 19, 2009 5:06 pm

Post by Amished »

The way Raivann has posted has given us all something to talk about, helping us "kill" the RVS like your question in 35 stated. (Off on a tangent here) since somebody is able to kill anything (cops + docs can't) therefore whoever is able to kill anybody/anything, they must be scum.
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Post Post #44 (isolation #5) » Wed May 20, 2009 5:50 am

Post by Amished »

@Camn: No, that was the MMMMM, OMGUS vote <3 line :)
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Post Post #46 (isolation #6) » Wed May 20, 2009 8:25 am

Post by Amished »

It was to your thought about my unclear response. I had addressed Sustain with that line (mmm omgus), so I was onto another topic with my joke comment later that you were unsure about.
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Post Post #48 (isolation #7) » Wed May 20, 2009 8:47 am

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Slightly no. (Somewhat of a very very very slight town-tell in other words). This is his first game (3 game posts so far, all accounted for here) and I feel newb-town would be slightly angry at being voted as they know they're innocent rather than scum who might be more wary at just throwing a vote back in the face of somebody.

I can see it as a scum tell with slightly more experienced players as they're used to being townies (my first couple games I was) and then in their first scum role they'd act a little weirder. I would like to hear his reasoning behind the vote if it isn't OMGUS, and if it is, to give thoughts on our 45 or so posts so far and see what he thinks about the other players.

unconvoluted version: First game for a player: OMGUS as a townie makes slightly more sense than OMGUS as scum. Lack of actual reasoning is disturbing, but we have time to make them contribute.
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Post Post #50 (isolation #8) » Wed May 20, 2009 9:37 am

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Because it gave me a slight tell, helping me to place them on my internal scum/town list. I also wanted to check for any reaction or defiance to my accusation of an OMGUS vote.
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Post Post #54 (isolation #9) » Wed May 20, 2009 11:57 am

Post by Amished »

@Camn: So you strongly feel that OMGUS votes are scumtells almost every single time, and therefore you believe you nailed scum? Or are you referring to my unvote of SR and vote on Raiv due to try to move the game along?

@Arel: I agree with your sentiments about Cojin. Without putting your thoughts out there either means you don't have thoughts on the players (anti-town as you're a black hole and eating up space) or you're wary of implicating townies as scummy (straight up being scum). My ever dwindling supply of really strong scumtells is having a lack of analysis/suspects. Cojin has now risen to #2 on my suspect list.
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Post Post #56 (isolation #10) » Wed May 20, 2009 12:30 pm

Post by Amished »

For my accusation on SR, for it to be a real "accusation" rather than a comment, I'd need to believe that it was done with scum intent. I explained why I don't think that this is the case this time.

We clearly don't have a vig that deals with lurkers (my preferred method of dealing with them). Also, we're only three pages into the game, so it wouldn't be that hard to get another player in here to replace if the lurking is that bad. First we'd need to get a couple prods going on SR, and he posted yesterday.

I want more words out of everyone, so if I could I'd make him post more than 1 line per post, but it's technically not normal lurking, just "active lurking" which is really just as bad if not worse. I'll give him a couple more days to see if his posting pattern will improve, then I'd be in support of lynching him.

Though you're right, we do need to deal with lurkers early, otherwise they'll be left til the endgame and make it really hard on the town to get a win.
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Post Post #58 (isolation #11) » Wed May 20, 2009 3:33 pm

Post by Amished »

I disagree, as a "comment", it brings it to the forefront, allowing people to see it and form their own opinions. Specifically in this game you've commented on it, we've both gone through our reasonings and that'll help everyone involved to both get a read on us and to think through more comments/defenses/accusations/whatever and hopefully help everyone become a better mafia player and enjoy the setting.
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Post Post #64 (isolation #12) » Thu May 21, 2009 4:15 am

Post by Amished »

@Az and Raiv: Yes, and I'm trying to lead by example. I instruct and try to play like I would in a normal game. Lurking/not posting much makes it hard for the rest of the people. If you posted like that, I'd say I want more opinions and everything out of you too. Obviously it's a double benefit for everybody as the game won't drag out and get stuck with a deadline lynch on a lurker, while also allowing people to either get a read on you or look for scumslips.

Specifically at Raiv: Voting for people is one of the hard facts in the game. A lot of people look at voting patterns so voting for somebody will instantly raise how much scrutiny they're under. If I had a partner, specifically a newbie one, I wouldn't want them to be under that sort of scrutiny. It's an either/or that would both hurt me as Scum.

@Ham: In the last votecount post by Elmo, he? (I hope you're a he and I didn't screw up) said that troy was being prodded. Care to comment on the rest of the game?
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Post Post #70 (isolation #13) » Thu May 21, 2009 2:39 pm

Post by Amished »

My vote on you is for the reason that you're acting scummy. Having it be a real vote instead of an RVS vote only on page 2 (RVS generally lasts much longer) is having the game move into the serious portion as a side effect. There's really no way to be so sure about anything the way you were that far in, and a typical townie wouldn't be so bold as to make a stupid prediction like that.

The best spin I can really put on it is trying to chain lynch me if Ham turned up scum, which is still scummy, and in that case only Ham's partner would be able to know that he'd turn up scum. In *that* case, you'd still be severely scummy looking D3 after my mislynch, and probably wouldn't make it as scum unless you pulled something spectacular out of nowhere (which I don't see happening).

Short version: no townie would openly state with such confidence that they found scum after 1 random vote, solely because they would have no knowledge of said person's alignment.
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Post Post #72 (isolation #14) » Thu May 21, 2009 4:27 pm

Post by Amished »

Grrr, my name isn't Ed. (think of it as a past tense verb)

Then explain to me why you voted for Hamburger in the way you did that would make sense from any town point of view.
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Post Post #96 (isolation #15) » Sat May 23, 2009 7:59 pm

Post by Amished »

2 mins before I head to bed:

OMGUS = Oh My God, yoU Suck. It's basically a vote in retaliation for a vote that was placed on you (or a scumbuddy if you're confident/stupid). That's the base definition, and it can be spread to more actions, but that's the starting point.

Welcome Josh.
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Post Post #106 (isolation #16) » Sun May 24, 2009 10:53 am

Post by Amished »

Sorry I've been more absent than I normally am, I'm coming back through though and I'll be posting my thoughts as I go.

@Cojin: There was no claim. What are you talking about?
Got it now.

@Arelian (81): I don't think it's that he (Raiv) is acting too townie (which is a logical fallacy; search "too townie" in the Wiki). It's more like he's proclaiming that he's townie (which isn't needed, and townies shouldn't/don't have to do that. To keep having to proclaim it, while giving vague reasons/no reasoning at all is why it's suspicious.

@Raiv (88): Answer the damn question, don't fly it it our faces that you're specifically ignoring it. That is incredibly anti-town. (Also answers the question in 100)

As to your other question in 100, Raiv: I don't "think" I'm townie, I know I'm townie. Therefore I know I don't have to proclaim it, and then I can spend my time not ignoring questions and saying "i'm townie" and focus on scumhunting. Also, it's noted that you still haven't provided an answer as to why you think you're "so damn townie". Like you so adroitly pointed out, ignoring the question is scummy.

*Crossposted with Cojin*
That's not a claim. A claim is saying you're vanilla townie, doctor, cop, mafia goon or mafia roleblocker (I'm waiting for somebody to seriously claim one of the last two, hasn't happened yet). "Townie" in my eyes says that they're part of the town, rather than part of the mafia; "Mafia-ie" if you will. Heck, with the wording of Raiv's quote that you pulled out, you could also argue that "believing" you're townie is a scum-slip as townies don't need to believe or pretend.

@Cojin: Why did you feel that L-2 was so dangerous? At that point, the only way Raiv could be hammered is either by a stupid townie quicklynching (bad) or by two scum coming on and quicklynching (which would out them rather obviously). What worries me about your unvote, though, is that you took that as a claim, and unvoted, possibly in the hopes of driving up another town player to force to claim so that you can find a power role.
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Post Post #117 (isolation #17) » Mon May 25, 2009 7:54 am

Post by Amished »

@Cojin: You're unvoting due to having suspicions of Raiv, and due to thinking that both of our scum (if you were voting for Raiv and believed him to be suspicious, there would then only be one scum left) would quicklynch him. I still find this to be supremely suspicious.

@Raiv: So you now believe Az and I to be scum since the question was directed at town? Why are you not voting for us then? I also see that you still haven't answered the damn question.

I've posted why townies don't "believe" they're town. Why did you phrase your whole game so far around believing you are town? Why are you not trying to explain why you believe you're town? Dismissing it as weak scumhunting is also not effective, as you're still avoiding the question because you don't have a valid answer, and not giving credit to asking questions about something that the questioner doesn't understand.

Your 112 also makes no sense. Unvoting doesn't exactly shoot the wheels off of anything. In a 9 player game you don't need all the people to agree on a majority, you just need 5. One less isn't stopping a wagon, but it gives us all something more to talk about, while also allowing the town to look at the reasons for the votes on you.
arelian wrote:Basically the mindset I've approached this game with was thinking about each person in terms of "if you are scum, are you trying deliberately to do the opposite of what you should be doing?" Like, I don't think Raivann is scum because he is acting in such a way that would potentially put him at risk to be lynched. Scum wouldn't do that. Maybe it's not the best view on things though. I guess what I should really be doing is searching for logical problems and attacks that don't make sense, as that is what scum really would want to do. They would want to put the pressure on someone with whatever logic they could get away with.
You are going to get WIFOM'd to death by looking at it just that way. There are all types of scum, aggressive, passive, semi-lurker, actual good player looking at the weak points in townies/partners defense. I *try* to look at planning. Strong scum will have a plan that might become apparent, while weak scum lack planning, and are rather erratic.

Looking at everything from multiple angles is a useful tool, but to base everything off of that will lead you to the middle of nowhere where you're going back and forth without making serious decisions as everything can be looked at two ways.

@Sustain: What was your reason for voting me in the first place then, if you no longer have a reason? Also, who is your strongest impression of being mafia? I don't care if it's not strong enough to cast a vote, what are your impressions of players?
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Post Post #119 (isolation #18) » Mon May 25, 2009 10:25 am

Post by Amished »

LOL.

Ok, if you believe two players are scum, vote for either of them, it really wouldn't matter. Put up a case, defend your point, do something other than say "I'm townie, believe me". Rather than your weak viewpoint that "I know who's scum, but I don't know who to vote for." Give me a break.

I want to see some explanation out of you. If you won't answer the question, say why it's so damn scummy. I really dare you to give us anything even remotely like defending a viewpoint that you hold.
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Post Post #122 (isolation #19) » Mon May 25, 2009 2:02 pm

Post by Amished »

You sure do like avoiding the point.

What are you waiting for if you believe people are scum? If I was scum, I'm sure as hell not going to be lynching myself anytime soon. A belief in scum means you vote for them. If you're hesitant due to L-1, it's a bit more understandable, but I believe you're just afraid of having your vote down for somebody in the real portion of the game.

Take me for example: I believe that you're scum to the point that I damn near know you're scum. Therefore, I voted for you. I also don't try to make any links between players of alignment I don't know so I won't be setting up a chain lynch or a weak reason for a vote tomorrow.

I will repeat until you answer, you're lynched, or preferably both:
I want to see some explanation out of you. If you won't answer the question, say why it's so damn scummy. I really dare you to give us anything even remotely like defending a viewpoint that you hold.
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Post Post #125 (isolation #20) » Mon May 25, 2009 4:32 pm

Post by Amished »

*isn't.

Taking the time to come up with some cock and bull story about "why" you're not answering a question, while not addressing the game in any way is highly scummy.

@God: Why can't I have a dayvig?
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Post Post #129 (isolation #21) » Mon May 25, 2009 6:59 pm

Post by Amished »

camn wrote:
Amished wrote: @God: Why can't I have a dayvig?
Who would you vig?
Raivann, obviously.
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Post Post #130 (isolation #22) » Mon May 25, 2009 7:03 pm

Post by Amished »

@arelian: I want him to explain his actions. If he didn't want to be questioned as to why he felt he was so townie, why would he say that he believed himself to be unbelievably townie in the first place? My question is not meaningless due to there should be reasoning behind him holding that particular view and feeling like he needed to post it.

If he gets further down the road, I would expect him to claim, but I would doubt both cop and doc claim if he did claim either of those roles. Certainly I would be happy with the fact that he would then be at L-1 when you should claim as I view him to be scum, and would then be very close to a lynch.
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Post Post #137 (isolation #23) » Tue May 26, 2009 5:46 am

Post by Amished »

First off, that's a very elegant solution Camn, nicely done.

Secondly, I have no problem taking responsibility for my actions. I believe him to be the scummiest player today, and I'll go through the game on him for you right here.

Thirdly, I have a tentative scumpartner to Raivann if Raiv turns scum.

(I'm going through the game instead of Raiv in ISO, so that should sort out any confusion)

8: After Hamburger's random vote to start off the game, (of which there *can* be no evidence that it wasn't random) he starts his ... "crusade" early on against Hamburger and I. This is both stupid and trying to set up a chain lynch. There is no possible way to determine if it was a random vote or not, and the only way he would know is if he was a hydra/looking over the shoulder of Ham, and then he'd be a liar, and would fall under LAL.

10: I have an inherent distrust of people who state they're obvtown, and this early into the game doesn't dissuade me from that. Gives Az townie points for his post.

12 by Cojin: (who is my tentative partner) Votes Raivann, this time truly to distance himself from his partner I believe. This is mostly coming into "vote analysis" scumhunting, but that's more scientific if you will than just going by feel of the posts.

14 by Cojin (Italics will be by him) states that early votes may be an attempt to bus. I feel he's referring to himself more than anybody, as when I was scum, I wanted to try to be clever about it and be able to point back to where I basically told them I was evil. Just relating his post to something I've done as scum.


16: Admits it was an unjust attack, discrediting everything he's said before and giving him an out the farther into the game it goes.

27: Specifically asks Cojin who people's alignment is. Could've asked anyone, but chose Cojin to try to keep distance between them.

Cojin replies in 29 stating that he has no ideas as to anybody's alignment. Non-committal and leaves him open to change his vote at any time.


31: Raivann "attacks" Cojin (and places a vote on him which would be the second behind arelian) for Cojin not liking Raiv's name. Still not being that productive as the reasons given with the vote instantly discredit any authority he could've had. Also gives Raiv an easy out if Cojin is attacked later as well.

32: Raivann basically flat out says that Cojin is scum for active lurking. Does nothing to draw Cojin into the game, just states it.

33: Gives me an FoS for stating that Raiv's case on Hamburger was bogus. I believe that this was to be a precursor to an attack, and attempting to show that he's been suspicious of me for a while.

36: Cojin says that there are no definite scumtells so far, but goes so far as to weak confirm his vote on Raiv for being scummy, even though he just said that there weren't scumtells.


59: Raiv now tries to set me up with "my scumbuddy Sustain." Without providing logic, just further trying to set up any scumpairing possible.

67: Says that being over-aggressive is not anti-town (when I both disagree with him that he's just being false aggressive undermining himself with every vote, and that being aggressive for the sake of being aggressive is partially anti-town; either leading people on false witchhunts or distracting the players.)

73: Addresses his point against ham as an attempt to kickstart the game (while his further accusations have taken the same tone, and since the game is already started, his accusations then become even less useful to the game).

In 80, after Az votes for Raiv: Cojin finally speaks up again giving a weak reason to unvote for Raivann. Basic vote analysis states that scum often vote for their partners early, then unvote late when they come under pressure. Cojin fulfills both parts of this scenario. Keep in mind that this is still operating under the assumption that Raiv is scum


88: Raiv paints Cojin in as favorable a light as he possibly can, while also saying "well played, sir". I find this to be highly suspicious as Cojin has been far from very townie, and saying that he's playing well when he's barely contributed to the discussion at all is outrageous to say the least.

**This is starting where Raiv and I/Az got into it over the damn townie statement**

107: Cojin further muddies his position on Raiv. States that he unvoted because he wasn't suspicious of him (which wasn't the reason he voted for Raiv in the first place) but that suspicion on Raiv is very much there


112: Raiv goes on to say that if Raiv was townie, Cojin would want to stay on the wagon. This is true in more than one way, so because Cojin hopped off the wagon, he's also scum and doesn't want to lynch his partner.

(Crossposted with Camn)
This will be great WIFOM for later, but you have competition for getting NK'd. I've been NK's N1 in three ongoing games, been NK'd N1 in another, survived one night in a fifth and was then NK'd. I have a terrible survival record. I'm calling anti-amishism.

@Josh: What are your thoughts on Raivann?
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Post Post #138 (isolation #24) » Tue May 26, 2009 8:19 am

Post by Amished »

@Mod: summer sucks. I'll be LA again over the next few days, hopefully I'll get a chance to weigh in from time to time, but don't expect anything overly insightful
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Post Post #189 (isolation #25) » Sun May 31, 2009 7:03 am

Post by Amished »

This might be a little choppy, I'm trying to monitor another game I'm in who's deadline is today, but I'm back and going to be catching up from page 6.
Raivann wrote:First of all Amished is obvscum now. You guys do realize he is trying to get me lynched because I am aggressive and pushing this crap case that I'm scum because of it.He is portraying me as stupid scum. He called my playstyle stupid more than once(dont worry ,no offense taken Ed) He is trying to get control of this thread. You all are drinkin the kool aid down too. What if Camn was tring to help him out when she made him try to post real case against me?
I've seen aggression work, but it's relatively rare. Besides, you're misrepresenting my case by boiling it down to I want you dead "because you are aggressive". While true I believe your playstyle needs to be refined, the way you went about it early on is reckless and you obviously didn't read everybody clearly if you got me being scum out it (when you were looking for reactions to everybody.) Your accusation that Camn "helped" me by putting forth a case is similarly ridiculous. She never contributed to my points against you, and it was all me.
Raivann wrote:Guys, camn and Amished are good at this game and this could be a scary scum team if it is indeed the case.

This is something to chew on dont everyone go freakin out.
Regardless of your 2nd sentence, it is fearmongering, and that is never a good thing. Ever.

At this point (end of 149) I find it pretty hilarious (read: not funny at all, but it figures) that you call me obvscum, post a case against Camn, and suggest that we're partners without providing evidence that we're linked in any way.
Raivann wrote:Crusade against you and Hamburger, right. It does fit with my avatar but that's about it. I was trying to get a read on everybody. I liked Hamburger's response to my 2 post Crusade against him. But you got overly defensive, which is scummy to me.
I used crusade because of the mindlessness and relentlessness you used while you were attacking Hamburger. Me being defensive of him would more suggest that I'd be paired with Ham, but no, that's not the case at all in your world.....
Raivann wrote:Am I that much of a meanie? Why do you got "attack" in quotes. I was just asking people questions and using my vote as a tool. I tried asking Cojin a question, I didn't like his answer, so I voted him. I figured it would get him talking more than "not at this time,no"
I put attack in quotes because it didn't feel like you were actually attacking him. You had your hyperaggressive style that you were using, then to ask Cojin in another "meta" for lack of better word signaled to me that you weren't really asking with the same confidence that you attacking would hold.

Arelian in 157: Great fencesitting. IIoA and major suspicion going your way from me. I picked up on something else too, but I want more time to flesh it out at the moment.

Welcome ASH.

Out of the Camn/Az I found both of them consistent and rather pro-town except for one excerpt:
Azhrei wrote:Why are me, Amished and Raivann almost certainly town? I'd say that if anything, Amished and Raivann especially are likely to be of opposite alignments. And if I wasn't me, I'd still be suspicious of me. Really. And if we get chain lynches like that, we've lost this game anyway. Just because someone attacks someone, and gets them lynched, and they turn out townie, does not make the aggressor scum. That's why chain lynches = bad + scummy.
You state that chain-lynches are bad, and say that because somebody attacks somebody else it doesn't mean that the former is necessarily scum, but you state that Raiv and I are almost certainly of different alignments both setting up a chain lynch if I'm wrong, and saying that it wouldn't always be conclusive if I was.

My list:
1) Raivann
2) Cojin
3) Arelian
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Post Post #191 (isolation #26) » Sun May 31, 2009 11:22 am

Post by Amished »

@Az: So there's also no chance that both Raiv and I are town? Since you also brought up a possibility of Raiv flipping town, in that case I'm more likely scum? Even though you've agreed with me and viewed me to be pretty pro-town for a good portion of the game?
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Post Post #203 (isolation #27) » Mon Jun 01, 2009 4:22 am

Post by Amished »

The replacement has plenty of time to get caught up (6+ days away). In the chance that he's scum and we don't have that much time to get a read on him, there's still one more out there to find.

@Mod: Got it, sorry.
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Post Post #205 (isolation #28) » Mon Jun 01, 2009 6:13 pm

Post by Amished »

Camn: Well, there is 6 days left. Should be enough time to read 9 pages and post....

Anyways, you mention Cojin's early posts (and imply that they're scummy), and it's not bussing if scum attack a townie. Yet the person he voted for (that you said *could* be telling, which is a weak viewpoint) you have as probtown. From your viewpoint on Raiv, it appears that you leaning towards the "telling" statements aren't telling at all. In that case, I'd like you to further elaborate on your position towards Cojin, and give a bit more substance there.

Also, what of Raivann's responses/defense did you feel was particularly pro-town? After your unvote you failed to really comment on Raiv at all, and were instead distracted by Az and the lurkers.
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Post Post #208 (isolation #29) » Tue Jun 02, 2009 2:39 am

Post by Amished »

4 days from now? Gives time to get caught up (2 pages a day reading is hardly taxing) but we're still not too close to come to a compromise and actually perform a lynch.

And thank you for clearing up what you meant, I obviously found it a little confusing.
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Post Post #213 (isolation #30) » Tue Jun 02, 2009 12:28 pm

Post by Amished »

No-lynch is a bad idea with or without a cop. There is *ONLY ONE* situation where a no-lynch is a good idea, and that's in a 4 person, 1 scum left endgame. 3 townies left and 1 scum means that if you mislynch, it'll turn out to be the end of the game (lynch, 2 townies, 1 scum, NK means 1-1, and scum wins by default) and a no-lynch would allow scum to put up a NK, then 2 townies and 1 scum raising the *random* chances of hitting scum from 25% to 33%. Otherwise *never* no-lynch if you can avoid it.

Sucks for you that Ham is being replaced as you had some good reasoning posted about him being town or scum; and I like where you were trying to go with that. But good for the town that he's getting replaced instead of lynched.

Camn I'm getting a decent read on, and that mostly just comes with seeing many people throughout games and adjusting to them. It is a more pro-town read if anyone cares.

Arelian, I'm more confident now than ever that you're town, and you'll be a good player in the future while you continue to develop. 211 is easily your best post so far.

I'm clearly missing something with Raiv's defense, and if Camn/arelian are scum and misleading me (which they'd have no reason to do) then Raiv is still town.

Unvote


I'm looking forward to how the replacements act, and what happens with Josh. He was in a game as town that I later replaced into and he was overall much more active, but I don't have a scum meta on him.

I have a ball-game tonight, but I should be able to get a reread on him as there's not much to do there and post my thoughts afterwards. Call it 5 hours from now or so I should be back around.
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Post Post #215 (isolation #31) » Tue Jun 02, 2009 4:29 pm

Post by Amished »

Well, did a reread of all 6 of Josh's posts. Without any explanation of his vote ("raised red flags for me" is not an explanation) or backing of his scumlist I would not have a problem voting for Josh at all. Hopefully he can come back and do something productive. If it comes to it, I wouldn't be against lynching him instead of having the mod find a replacement this short til deadline anymore as after this it's getting harder to really come up with a coherent argument for just about anybody.

I'm hoping that Ham's replacement comes in and contributes which is why I'm not looking at them as much for a lurkery lynch.
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Post Post #216 (isolation #32) » Tue Jun 02, 2009 4:32 pm

Post by Amished »

EBWOP: I meant to address Camn's post too, specifically the 2nd paragraph. It wouldn't clear you for the rest of the game, maybe for a day, but to pick out a scum by lynching a lurker would not in any way signal that you're super obvious town. You would and should know that.

I also want to point out that I hate your last two paragraphs, Camn, for a couple of reasons.
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Post Post #225 (isolation #33) » Wed Jun 03, 2009 6:47 pm

Post by Amished »

1) Welcome to Scien
2) I'll be waiting til you finish your posts/questions before addressing your posts.

@Camn: I don't think this was ever satisfactorily explained (or if I even questioned it before). What of my case against Raivann did you not agree with, and why?
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Post Post #230 (isolation #34) » Thu Jun 04, 2009 2:01 am

Post by Amished »

Well screw you and the horse you rode in on. Did you want me to revote him? I still think he's suspicious, but clearly that wasn't going anywhere. I asked a simple question on what you disagreed with and you just say it was all tissue-thin. I feel it's still as scummy as anything else so far. Besides, this game is somewhat slow, so what else is there to do as you're pretty much caught up. Do it when you come back.
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Post Post #239 (isolation #35) » Thu Jun 04, 2009 11:36 am

Post by Amished »

Alrighty then.

@Scien: Don't have a problem with 223, 224 has a question posed to me:
Scien wrote: I don't agree that aggression in itself is a bad tactic from a townie. I think you are saying that?
Nope, not saying that. I'm an overall aggressive player, and some of the more well-known scumhunters are pretty aggressive (ABR comes to mind). Aggression with a purpose is great. Random aggression for no particular reason = anti-town and distracting.

For Raivann, I feel my position on him is pretty clear.

Cojin is on my list due to his weird attitude towards Raiv. Both the first vote, unvote, and revote are all consistent with scum vote analysis (and I basically don't understand the revote the most). His early play where he wasn't commenting much and not voicing suspicions also make me very suspicious of him.

For Arelian, at the time I felt his posts to be more IIoA and with a lack of position behind them. Since that list, he's made (and I've commended him for) a very pro-town post that I liked a lot and he is no longer in my top 3.

**Note: While I feel somewhat strongly about Cojin's voting of Raiv (and his voting in general, just was on Raiv this game), in the case that Raiv is confirmed town by death or possible investigation, his link to a player is completely busted. I have said (or should've if I didn't) that even if Raiv turned up scum, Cojin would not be the only one looking scummy, but he would be at the forefront of the list for me.

I could go through and list all the possible scum pairings right now and try to figure the game out from there, but it's both better play and easier to look for one scum and then look for partner(s). It's both a waste of time and scummy to be linking lynches from day to day without a confirmed scum first. I hated it when Camn said it (especially as she's now said that she's terrible at finding scum D1); I brought it up as vote analysis isn't often looked at in a newer setting (and therefore useful from a teaching perspective, I've only recently come across that method and was able to peg 2 out of the 3 scum in a recently ended game without even reading most of it after I was NK'd) and by getting it right I might be NK'd, but getting it wrong I might be NK'd for WIFOM purposes. I also hate it when anybody else does it, and I agree with Scien that it's overall not good to do this early in the game.**

Moving on.

@Camn: You obviously know that we can (and even have) replaced lurkers. I'll put pressure on them with a vote if I feel it to be necessary, and lynch them as a deadline alternative; but I'd still much rather replace a player (Scien can attest to the fact that replacing a player might bring in a Mastin or somebody along those lines, and yes: while you (Scien) were replacing in I read the two games you linked to in your Wiki. Mostly because I've played with Mastin before and he's brought your name up once or twice) and have a good pro-town player. I would much rather lynch somebody that I feel is scummy whether or not they're active. However, I would agree that I would also hammer myself if I was the only one at L-1 at deadline. In fact, that's the only reason an IC can self-vote at all and retain their IC status, just to avoid a no-lynch because it *is that bad*. I've not seen it personally in game, but I'm sure it's had to come up.

BTW: still care to answer my questions about why you felt my case was weak/thin/new synonym?

One last thing, with my position regarding Arelian changing, if I had to pick a new #3, it'd probably be Camn.
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Post Post #253 (isolation #36) » Fri Jun 05, 2009 8:58 am

Post by Amished »

I will respond to Camn's analysis of my case against Raiv later, maybe after work or before work tomorrow (I close at the bar, so it's going to be late as hell when I get home) but the deadline is right there right now.

I'd rather vote for Cojin as I've *seen* more scummy actions out of him (and I don't like it when people make an excuse for posting one-liners. If you can't post more than that at a time, don't sign up for a game. Get on a real computer with a real keyboard and get some analysis.

However, Josh (a replacement) is still worthless so far. He should've had plenty of time to post something worthwhile.

Vote: Josh Lyman



Crossposted with ASHeart: Yes, that was a joke. I can guarantee that Camn knows that Elmo is the mod.
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Post Post #271 (isolation #37) » Fri Jun 05, 2009 8:12 pm

Post by Amished »

Cojin wrote: Amished: Posts seem Very pro town,
but so pro town its bordering scum tell
, I view amisheds post as informative and he is too much use to lynch
Too townie, eh? That's still bogus. SCUM ARE NOT (ever) "SO PRO TOWN TO BORDER ON BEING SCUM". They're scummy, occasionally bringing up good points, but never extremely pro-town in all cases. Ever.

Going back to my theory on linking: I viewed both Cojin and Raivann to be scummy enough on their own to lynch. The fact that Cojin's voting pattern is scummy especially with regards to a potential link to Raivann even before I pointed out a link (and continued after) doesn't harm my viewpoint on either of those two. A Raivann lynch doesn't bother me in the least especially as we'll all gain more information from that than a Josh lynch.

Camn is also right in 266: lynching *after* giving the person a chance to respond if they don't respond satisfactorily is relatively pro-town. As long as the accused have a chance to defend themselves, if they don't (wildly accuse others in hopes of driving people off their lynch) or something and then are lynched, it's either a good example for a newb-townie to learn that they have to defend themselves, or a scumtell and scum will be lynched D1 which is obviously super beneficial.

Cojin (especially concerning his views on me) in 269 make him my #1 scum candidate lynch for today. Trying to make something scummy out of something that he admitted to being pro-town is EXTREMELY scummy, while also bad logic, inconsistent and worthy also of a dayvig. Townies never have to make something scummy from something they view as pro-town so the only real backing behind that is from a scum perspective.

His views on Josh and Raivann are inconsistent as well, and that is also scummy. Townies basically always hold a same view (as with Camn and her dislike of lurkers, or scien's/my distrust of raivann's early posts) throughout, and only scum would have to weaken their own postition to be able to gain wiggle room to later be able to vote for somebody. Calling *anything* pro-town to be scummy is the biggest scumtell ever in my eyes. Townies *never* have to do that. Ever. 99% likely to be scum.

Specifically in Cojin's stance on Raivann, immediately points out that "we" have put pressure on him, instantly relieving him of responsibility for anything, while also appearing to try to take credit for a lynch on scum. Internally inconsistent by saying that his responses aren't good under pressure but still townie.

His (Cojin's) link (as it appears to me) to Raivann is enough for me to lynch either of them, and Raivann's # of votes as well as separately scummy comments make him my #1 vote candidate for now.

Either of Cojin or Raiv is great imo to lynch today, while anybody who gets close and no other wagons close need to get lynched due to the badness of a no-lynch.

Though Camn was #3 on my lynch list before, her last couple posts move her into my pro-town. This means *everybody* but Raiv/Cojin is tied for #3 on my lynch list as any lynch is better than no-lynch.

*crossposted with Scien*

Scien brings up a good point about Cojin's claim about Arelian "pressuring" Raivann. Again making something appear more scummy than it is. I really want Cojin lynched today if possible, but will be content with a Raivann lynch.

Unvote
Vote: Cojin


If Raivann garners more support soon, I'll switch my vote, but I'll be around before the deadline if somebody reaches L-1 to switch if necessary.
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Post Post #277 (isolation #38) » Sat Jun 06, 2009 3:44 am

Post by Amished »

Cojin wrote:
Raivann's support for me being town is a little unsettling, mainly because I don't feel like I've made a strong enough case for myself yet. Does he know more than he's letting on?

Over the top accusations, which have done well to get the game started. I don't know if you're attacking people because you're trying to get the focus off you, or because you want to put the pressure on them. You could also be trying to present yourself as an easy target by appearing scummy, to see who in turn attacks you to conclude that they themselves are scum.

I don't want to lynch Raivann yet

Despite me being behind Raivann for probably the entire game, I think his agressiveness and lack of a real defense may be finally catching up with him. I still don't want to vote for him quite yet though. I want to hear Raivann's response to Amished's post.
Although its not direct pressure i still saw it within his posts.
I'm not seeing any pressure.

@Raivann: ABR actually *looks* for something scummy first, and then pressures them relentlessly. Try reading one or two of his town games and you'll see what he's really like. Quoting a wiki page does nothing, and it's IIoA.

What are *your* feelings on Cojin?

Working on my defense of my case now though. Will come in a new post.
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Post Post #278 (isolation #39) » Sat Jun 06, 2009 4:06 am

Post by Amished »

camn wrote:
8: After Hamburger's random vote to start off the game, (of which there *can* be no evidence that it wasn't random) he starts his ... "crusade" early on against Hamburger and I
Not scummy
*Mindlessly* attacking people with *no* reasoning *two* posts into the game is anti-town at best.
10: I have an inherent distrust of people who state they're obvtown,
Your problem, not his.
Stating something that I feel to be scummy is everybody's problem. Because he dropped a scumtell is still his problem. You point out something scummy in another player isn't just your problem.
12 by Cojin: (who is my tentative partner) Votes Raivann, this time truly to distance himself from his partner I believe.
So.. Raiv is scum because Cojin voted him? Hmm. Not compelling.
It's a lead and start to a linking between two scummy players. If there's a linking this early, I feel it should be pointed out.
14 by Cojin (Italics will be by him)
more about cojin? Not relevant.
Read above
16: Admits it was an unjust attack,
Town-tell. Admitting you were wrong.
He wasn't admitting he was wrong, he was admitting that he knowingly attacked unjustly.
27: Specifically asks Cojin who people's alignment is
So?
Link, and why single out Cojin. The way Raiv phrased it looked off to me, and now how I would ask another person if I didn't know their alignment.
31: Raivann "attacks" Cojin (and places a vote on him which would be the second behind arelian) for Cojin not liking Raiv's name.
OMGUS is not a scumtell.
It's a stupid reason for a vote (them not liking your name) and while he's admitted to trying to kickstart the game. Getting it started then a "random" vote is most likely distancing.
32: Raivann basically flat out says that Cojin is scum for active lurking. Does nothing to draw Cojin into the game, just states it.
Which is a fine play. The vote was already on him, right?
If you think they're not being active, make them come forward so you can pin down their opinions. Not voting them and leaving it there. It's still a way to keep a reason for voting for somebody without doing anything either.
33: Gives me an FoS for stating that Raiv's case on Hamburger was bogus. I believe that this was to be a precursor to an attack, and attempting to show that he's been suspicious of me for a while.
FOS'ing someone, then attacking them later is a logical progression. Not scummy.
Fair enough
36: Cojin says ...
MORE ABOUT COJIN!
Yes, the link between them that I stated I was going to try to build in the start of my case post.
59: Raiv now tries to set me up with "my scumbuddy Sustain."
How is this scummy? You are doing it with cojin in this very post!
I have reasoning and links between Raiv/Cojin. He has neither.
67: Says that being over-aggressive is not anti-town (when I both disagree with him that he's just being false aggressive undermining himself with every vote, and that being aggressive for the sake of being aggressive is partially anti-town; either leading people on false witchhunts or distracting the players.)
Internally inconsistent. If he is undermining himself, and he is scum, then it IS protown.
It's only pro-town because he's making it easy to find scum...
73: Addresses his point against ham as an attempt to kickstart the game
Scumhunting is scummy, too?
Giving a different reason for his posts than initially (finding scum right off the bat) is inconsistent and therefore scummy.
In 80, after Az votes for Raiv: Cojin finally speaks
More about Cojin.. though I think this would also be true in Cojin-scum/Raivann-town....
Ok
88: Raiv paints Cojin in as favorable a light as he possibly can, while also saying "well played, sir".
That is a weird post. I'll give you a point here.
Good
107: Cojin further muddies his position on Raiv. ....
more about Cojin.. I am almost sold on a Cojin Lynch from reviewing your Raivann case!!
That's fine by me.
112: Raiv goes on to say that if Raiv was townie, Cojin would want to stay on the wagon. This is true in more than one way, so because Cojin hopped off the wagon, he's also scum and doesn't want to lynch his partner.
Except, Cojin is new-ish. New scum often fear mislynch-fallout.
True enough as well. I just view his motivation in this case to be different than fearing the fallout.

Whew, no screwed up tags.
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Post Post #287 (isolation #40) » Sat Jun 06, 2009 7:21 am

Post by Amished »

A replacement coming in would still make their own scumslips too, so we *could* get a read on them if Josh is scum.
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Post Post #289 (isolation #41) » Sat Jun 06, 2009 7:33 am

Post by Amished »

So:

Your only "dying" thoughts are that a lurker is scummy, and by default everyone else is ok. No defense/explanation of your actions, no questioning others that you feel are scummy, you go after a lurker who probably won't respond, and don't ask him any questions.

Your claim is more of a fear-based, and we're myslynching (sic). Contrast this with Camn's claim where she said (and correctly implied) that she's only a vanilla townie. We're *not* losing a power role, and if we can't or aren't going to hit scum, the best alternative is a VT.
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Post Post #296 (isolation #42) » Sat Jun 06, 2009 9:46 am

Post by Amished »

arelian wrote:Cojin, the problem with a no lynch is that losing two people (and essentially confirming the identities of two people) is a lot better of an option then only confirming one through the night kill. We can then examine relationships of the confirmed players to the non confirmed ones and see what we can draw from it. Also, at least this way we have a chance of hitting scum. If we were to do a no lynch, then we would have a 0% chance of finding a scum player.

And I don't think there is a lot of WIFOM really. Participating in a lynch isn't necessarily a scummy thing to do. I feel that if you really believe someone is scum, then you vote for them.

The fact that you're arguing for a no lynch really just seems to me to be an attempt to shake everyone off of you at the last second. Amished was right when he said your claim seemed to be mostly fear based compared to camn's and Raivann's. And the fact that you didn't claim doctor or cop makes it much less of a risk to the town as a whole to go on with the lynch and see what is revealed.
I literally could not have said it better myself. Extremely well put, and everything is correct. Arelian's last paragraph is exceptionally true, including the recent "no-lynch" suggestion. It has even been brought up this game with Raiv, Camn and I discussing that we would all hammer ourselves if necessary just due to how bad the no-lynch is. While I applaud you (Cojin) for not giving up, you suggesting no-lynch only looks like the last ditch desperate attempt of scum to save themselves.

I don't think I've ever felt this confident in a D1 lynch.
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Post Post #318 (isolation #43) » Wed Jun 10, 2009 4:46 pm

Post by Amished »

I'm glad you're so open to options, Raiv... Care to put out a reason why or are you just going to continue to be unhelpful?

@Camn: A lurker lynch would've told us just as much, but probably less than a Cojin lynch. Out of those three, I don't know why but I got a weird vibe the first time I read Scien's posts, namely right around 223-224. Right now it's just a gut read, but I'll want to reread him as one of my top priorities.
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Post Post #320 (isolation #44) » Wed Jun 10, 2009 5:04 pm

Post by Amished »

Oh, now I see what I saw that made me do a double take when reading Scien's posts:
Scien wrote:My thoughts on page 1 -
Hamburger's (mine I guess) random vote. I hate random roll votes with a passion. They are a tool for scum to hide behind. I can think of only one reason for a townie to use it, as I have seen it used this way in one of my past games. That reason is to intentionally look scummy in order to draw out the real scum. A risky manuver at best. That being said, now that I am in Hamburger's shoes and have inside information about his alignment, I have honestly no idea what the motives were behind this random vote. Apparently he is protown, however he doesn't seem to have been using the random vote as a scum hunting tool. I don't know what Hamburger was thinking.

Raivann's vote on a Hamburger(me) and Amished team. While I think I would have done the same thing in his shoes (minus the claim that Amished is scum as well) I find it odd that he doesn't explain this as he votes. He votes initially, then over the next 3 posts slowly explains his reasoning. Claiming the random roll is scummy (agree), and that Amished is most likely on a scum team with me the random voter (disagree), and the random roll sounded forced. I've already said why I agree that a random roll is a scum tell, but I don't agree that you can use the claimed result as a clue that that target is scum as well. Seems too far fetched. Yes it is possible for scum to use the random vote to bus. But I don't think the desire would be high enough yet to use such a risky manuver. Also, all RVS votes sound forced. They are all forced, there is no information to go off of yet.
I've replaced into a game as scum (and town, and doc, for that matter), but only as scum have I said that my predecessor's actions were scummy. I tried to pass it off as newbie or whatever (much like Scien did) and just play on and be informative while still being "safe" in my analysis. There was just too much of what I did as scum that lined up with what Scien is doing for my taste.

Hey, perfect, caught a crosspost and answered it already.
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Post Post #330 (isolation #45) » Fri Jun 12, 2009 5:33 am

Post by Amished »

@Raiv: So a confirmed townie (Raeil) said:
Post 137 – Amished – too long to quote

Analysis – Nice chain of events. You set up a pretty good connection here, and it seemed to be the same set up I just read in another game. Also, while I'm not above 60% convinced Cojin is mafia, that convenient string of events is just too coincidental for me to see it as purely coincidental...
Means that my case against you and Cojin was put together not that badly, and still had you being an unwilling partner to somebody pro-town. That doesn't clear you, but it does eliminate the connection part of my views against you. I've also stated that I viewed you and Cojin both to be individually scummy, so it's not really that much weaker. Especially as other things have come up recently to add to my suspicion of you.

For you twisting of words, I switched one word around. If you believe (and state it as certainly as you did yesterday) I would easily expect a vote on either player that you believe (and then wouldn't need the word "yet"). I view a vote as either a method for pressure when used later on in a wagon (like Camn did) or a statement that you feel somebody is more scummy than everybody else. The way you've used your vote is voting for me (your top suspect, fine), unvoting and then voting for camn (*mindless* bandwagoning, not fine) then unvoting her when coming under pressure and then voting for Cojin who you expressed suspicion on for about 2 posts, threw away your suspicion of Az and then kept your suspicion on... 2 people who are still alive.

ORLY? Yes, really. Other than my one instance of "twisting your words" (which I still hold to be your true viewpoint), what have you found scummy in me? Make a real case.
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Post Post #333 (isolation #46) » Fri Jun 12, 2009 10:07 am

Post by Amished »

@Scien: But it explains my viewpoint and something that should be brought to attention. Also, I'd wager that we have more similar playstyles than you might think.
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Post Post #357 (isolation #47) » Tue Jun 16, 2009 4:41 am

Post by Amished »

Sorry about the absence, gonna try to get caught up now. (Responding to prod)
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Post Post #358 (isolation #48) » Tue Jun 16, 2009 4:56 am

Post by Amished »

@Camn/Scien: Yes, analyzing and reading your predecessor's posts is one thing, looking for something (s)he might've let on about, but to go out and say that it was scummy is, well, scummy.

I wouldn't have really got on you that much for not talking about your replacee who lurked and didn't have much of any contribution to the game.

@Raivann: So far I still have a townish read on Camn. I'm guessing what you saw at the end of D1 was two people who know that compromise/discussion is needed specifically so close to a deadline. I didn't realize that two people talking to each other was a scumtell. ........

I agree that I feel the motives behind Camn and Arelian's votes were much different. Camn's came off as much more pro-town and consistent with her previous actions; i.e. riding Raivann to L-1 yesterday shows that she's not afraid to bandwagon. People do this as town or scum, but the way she does it (for pressure) is much different than the way that scum do it (to get lynches). I, for one, am almost positive that she will reevaluate everything that was said if a bandwagon does get going, and will post her views on everything then.

For my suspect: If blindness was a scumtell, I'd definitely make Raivann #1. Otherwise it's a lot muddier, probably with Scien actually, what with the "predecessor scummy" statement very early on in the game.
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Post Post #365 (isolation #49) » Tue Jun 16, 2009 6:48 pm

Post by Amished »

@Raiv: I'm getting a worthless tunneler vs. townie read on Raivann vs. Amished, actually. Since you don't see it as townie vs. townie, that leaves the tunneler to be scum.

@Camn 364: Exactly.

@Raiv: You paint a target on your back, yet you expect people that don't know your alignment not to fire? Right. I'm an aggressive player. You could expect that from me at either alignment, but right now you're trying to come off as justified in your attack on me because of the way I play. You still haven't posted a coherent case against me.

I used the words I felt best described what you were doing. The use of words to explain how I felt you were playing is not scummy either. Keep going with this, as it's actually making me feel better about putting pressure on you.
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Post Post #520 (isolation #50) » Sun Jul 05, 2009 11:15 am

Post by Amished »

(me posting this once is ok with Elmo)

I want to formally apologize to everyone in the game right now. I had a computer virus and vacation during the end of June. It sucks for all of you to have to get a read on another player, and it sucks for the mod to have to find a replacement.

I abhor people who flake, as it's disrespectful to all parties involved. I wish you all the best of luck and hope that I didn't set a bad example to our newer players.
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Post Post #643 (isolation #51) » Thu Jul 16, 2009 1:33 am

Post by Amished »

Raivann: Do you kinda understand why it's bad to just be all sure like that now? Arelian said that you'd have been the vote to lynch at lylo as well. Do something because it's logical, not just going on a rampage.

Also: I still don't see what was so scummy about my actions, though I apologize to CDB for leaving you in a position that you couldn't explain my actions.

One more thing: I was exactly right on Scien being scum because of him saying his predecessor's actions were scummy. So far from my experience 100% scumtell.
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Post Post #652 (isolation #52) » Thu Jul 16, 2009 12:07 pm

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From what I remember, CDB was pinged hard on my stance vs. Raivann. D2 I wanted to see who he'd really go after if he was pinged by somebody else for being overagressive and illogical. In that case (since I knew I was town) I figured he'd have a hard time looking for scummy behavior in those he knew were town (in my Raivann = scum theory) and would therefore go after somebody that really was scum and we could find his partner as obviously Cojin wasn't it (sorry Cojin =\). I also wanted to back off so that I could get a read on other people rather than just having a boxing match with Raivann and being distracting (anti-town) for the rest of the day.
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