Newbie 773 - New Bieland GAME OVER

[Dragonfly13]

Vote: Ryan Colt

He hasn't posted yet.

[Dragonfly13]

I am currently playing another game of mafia on another site, and my very early random vote in that game has garnered a lot of suspicion against me, so I would like to say now that my random vote here is merely an attempt to start some meaningful conversation. Once pressure is applied, it seems that we can get to know that person better, then apply pressure elsewhere and find out about him, etc.

1) What do you want to get out of this game?
2) Do you have a strategy of how to look for scum?

1) I'd like to learn how to analyze posts and look for scumtells.
2) Not yet, but I've been reading a lot of past games and wiki articles.

Good to see most of us are here.

[Dragonfly13]

Unvote

Vote: Baszie

I don't know if this is just a newbie mistake, but why would you put Ryan at L-1 when he's posted almost nothing so far? I find this suspicious. Also,

I can't really prove my innocence yet, but I'll try by making sure no-one gets lynched too soon by one of my votes.

This is odd to me because you are putting Ryan 1 vote away from a lynch with no reason at all, and then you say you're gonna make sure no one gets lynched too soon. I don't understand your reasoning here, and I'd like you to explain it for me.

[Dragonfly13]

I don't like posting simply to say I'm gonna be gone (because it doesn't help at all), but I am gonna be gone.

I'm not going to be active for the next few days or so, gotta study for some tests and then finals. I'll try to pop in every now and then.

[Dragonfly13]

oh man! this is great. so much confusion and suspicion.

Um, ok. This is very odd to me why you would be pleased with the town being confused and pointing fingers. Usually it is a good thing for scum when the town is confused, because then the scum can simply sit back and watch the destruction, so if you ARE scum then I can see how this would be "great."

The rest of your post you first vote cow and then attempt to justify it. Call me a psychologist, but I see this as voting without justification and then attempting to convince us why we should agree with you, instead of convincing us first and then voting, which is how I have seen it normally done. It just looks like a vote to lynch cow, who could likely be the best help town will have all game, for no good reason.

Right now you look very scummy to me, but for all I know you could be just really newbie town, I'm not really sure. Basically I don't like how unsure you are of what you are doing. If you're going to vote, make sure there's a good reason for it, not simply to get a lynch.

Unvote

Vote: koriental

[Dragonfly13]

change vote Vote Koriental

Do you have any

reason

for this or are you just trying to start a bandwagon? I find posts like this, where all someone does is vote with no explanation, VERY suspicious. Let's hear it.

Unvote
Vote: Mufasa

[Dragonfly13]

I actually was trying to get the chat flowing again it was really quiet in here.

If you're going to vote like this, at least say you're doing it for the reason you're doing it (to start up discussion again?). Simply voting with no explanation does not make you look good at all.

[Dragonfly13]

Ok, really now, guys. Let's get the conversation more active. We can't hope to win if we don't discuss things.

unvote

vote: bobo_the_monkey

Would like to hear more from you. Who do you find suspicious? Do you feel mufasa is a good lynch candidate at this point?

[Dragonfly13]

Yeah, the reason why I voted bobo there was because whenever he finds something suspicious, he usually says something like "I find this scummy," like you're saying he does, reckoner. I'd rather he come up with a better reason to find things scummy other than that "it's scummy." I personally would rather lynch bobo than mufasa right now.

Were do we go from here in terms of votes? Do we campaign for who we want to lynch?

This part seems a bit like he's pressing for a lynch. Which just reeks of mafia in my opinion.

[Dragonfly13]

I'd say we should extend the deadline by at least one day, considering today (sunday) was mother's day and a lot of us have apparently been very busy. (Happy Mother's Day!)

On topic, we simply MUST lynch someone today. A no lynch is unacceptable. I suggest you guys get voting, because a random lynch at this point is better than a no lynch. My preferences are bobo and mufasa, in that order.

We need a lynch because if we don't lynch anyone, mafia are one step closer to winning the game. If we lynch someone, we have a chance that we will lynch a mafia. If we don't, we will lose a townie and have no information to base our day 2 suspicions on.

[Dragonfly13]

cow, after a quick reread, I'm seeing a lot of connections between you and bobo.
not your fault exactly, but the way bobo acted D1 doesn't make you look good at all. If anyone else cares I'll provide examples.

vote: hasdgfas

If this day does not end with a hasdgfas lynch, I will be disappointed.

[Dragonfly13]

I don't know, cow. You tell

me

what you think of this series of events:

Act I:

but thanks for the vote it make me feel all warm and fuzzy on the inside

vote: tubby216

This vote is not a joke. he's trying too hard to be nonchalant about the vote on him so he can look town.

unvote vote: koriental since he hasn't posted

I'm still watching you tubby!

Why does bobo feel the need to keep suspicion on tubby at the same time voting koriental?

Unvote

vote: tubby216

I will be off camping this weekend by the way. So, no posts from me until Sunday or Monday.

And then revotes tubby here with absolutely no explanation? I feel it is because you were voting for tubby at this point, cow. Of course you are an experienced player, and as bobo's partner bobo would do well to follow you around, as he seemed to do a LOT D1.


========
Intermission
========

Act II:

It is... It is... As you can see it worked

But you're still not helping the discussion, and if you're doing something to create discussion, you need a follow-up, otherwise you just did something scummy for no good reason.

unvote, vote: mufasa

While I hate to hop on the bandwagon this seems pretty scummy to me as well.

unvote

vote: Mufasa

Ok, in any other circumstance this probably wouldn't be much of a connection. However, bobo flipped scum, so there is probably a connection here as well. "Hmm, what's cow doing? Ok, that's what I'll do." Is what I see here.

as for "cow". yeah. u explained it well, but i was actually looking for someone else to defend what you said/did. because if someone else could defend you well, then i'd be more convinced. well. alot has happened since back then, and i'm going to take some time to think about who this mafia character is.

IC Tip: Don't try to get people to defend someone else, because it's probably not going to happen. After all, the only people who know someone else's alignment are the scum(at least in a newbie game) and a cop with results. You're not going to get people to defend others because it can be rather suspicious after that person flips. [/IC Tip]

unvote

bobo, please come answer the questions asked of you. Consider this a vote on you pending a vote count.

The very last line under your unvote here looks a lot like you are worried about losing bobo, cow. My opinion on this matter is reinforced that you do not vote for him here, and in your next post, though I have no reason to believe you found anyone more suspicious than bobo at that point (ok, maybe mufasa), you don't vote him either:

mod:

I will be gone with zero internet access from Friday until the next Friday or Saturday. Please don't replace me. Thanks.
-Cow

People who are so hesitant to vote make me uncomfortable. Even without all of the connections I have made between you and bobo, this fact alone would be enough for me to vote for you.


Couple all of this information with the fact that you didn't die N1, cow, which would in my opinion be the best idea for a scum kill as you are obviously the most seasoned player here, and you know now why I am voting for you.

[Dragonfly13]

@Dragonfly: Bobo was scum. Scum want town to die. Scum will create connections that make town die. Bobo was a newbie, so he's a bit less seasoned player than others, and he'd probably be hesitant to go out on his own and look suspicious, so he follows someone more experienced(me) to try to get an idea of what to do. I find that scum follow town more often than they follow scum. That's Act I and the first half of Act II.

Oh please. Don't use the "I'm town" excuse. I don't know what you could possibly say to defend yourself really, other than "I'm not lying," but in this situation I wouldn't believe you anyway, sorry.

[Dragonfly13]

My, my. I may have to change my vote after all. Cow, I apologize for not taking your defense for what it is. I felt so strongly about my case on you that I became arrogant and only drove toward what I thought at the time would have been a win. I did see a few minor flaws in my initial argument against you, but I wanted to see how you would react, so I pushed it as hard as I could, because you are an experienced player. I feel that experienced players react better to pressure, so I wanted to see what you would do under a lot of it.

First of all, I would like to defend myself against tubby's nonsense, no matter how stupid his accusations are.

vote dragonfly13

not in love with his posts,

i believe cow to be quite townie in his play

You should almost never post who you think is town. That gives more targets for scum. The more town thinks someone is obvtown, the more likely scum will NK that person. It is sometimes helpful to have two or three or more people considered town during a day, but if it becomes a case where only one person is generally accepted to be town, that person WILL be killed if they are. (This is part of my suspicion on cow, simply because he did not die last night. More on this later.) Please elaborate on what you don't love about me... I hardly

EVER

get that reaction.

I would like to also note that there are NOT three scum in this game. Consider a case where mufasa and bobo are scum. Mufasa is at L-1. Bobo does not hammer because bobo was the L-1 vote. I don't think someone like bobo would try to get their scummate killed, because bobo is a pretty new player and I think he would probably rather play it safe. This is just my take on it, and I mean no offense to either of you. For this reason, I am not very suspicious of Mufasa. In this situation, Mufasa is at L-1, and I unvote him to vote bobo. You will note that this is the first vote on confirmed scum, and I backed it up and convinced people to get in here and vote. You may as well confirm me as town. I am not claiming town, but I have no reason for anyone to believe otherwise except for my arrogant tunneling of cow.

I honestly believe my play D1 was very protown, considering the circumstances. You can call it WIFOM if you like, but I am personally quite happy to have led a lynch on scum D1.

I still do not know why I wasn't NKed last night, but I'll take it. Ryan seems to be a random pick by a newer player. I know now that both cow AND myself cannot be scum, and if I had chosen anyone to die last night, it would've been one of us. This strikes me as peculiar because cow is now placed in the same situation as I am, and is causing me to become less suspicious of him.

i voted for dragonfly because he deserves it, read the thread.

so there is my defense,

and your case on me is rather good i have no defense lynch away.

Point out where I deserve it. You already know my opinion on my play D1. I think I played quite protown. Maybe I played TOO protown, in fact, because I don't want to be obvtown really, because I would like to find the other scum before I am NKed. If you are scum, tubby, then why not lynch me because I look town, and kill cow tonight because he is experienced? Not really understanding your reasoning here, and this kind of play goes against any kind of town strategy I've come across. You are not scumhunting, you are pointing fingers. Explain yourself.

Unvote

Vote: tubby216

[Dragonfly13]

its not frustration but pure laziness.

Laziness is antitown no matter which angle you look at it.

I look forward to actually having to defend myself from what I expect will not be another ridiculous case, tubby. My last post was pretty much all commentary.

and btw dragon look at reckoner's bs case agianst me that is the proper way to bring a bs case

I doubt tubby is scum

Where's reckoner's case against you? He hasn't voted for you. A proper bs case would be the one you brought against me, tubby. As you said, pure laziness. I did it when I brought up my case on cow, but I specifically stated I had examples to provide, I didn't just say reread the topic.

BUT BASZIE especially. so quiet??? what's up with that.

i'm concerned with ppl who talk too much, but even more concerned with those who hide in the darkness...

I would also like to see some more posts from Baszie. Couldn't hurt to hear more from mufasa as well.

[Dragonfly13]

Topic could use some logic and posting.

[Dragonfly13]

(side note, how do i do the white boxes with quotes from other posts?)

[ quote = "koriental" ] the stuff you wrote here [ / quote ] (without spaces)
You can also click the "Quote selected" button.

so I didn't have a chance to vote for him.

You could've voted in your post notifying us of your V/LA status.

Reckoner is bringing up some interesting points. I have been putting this game on the backburner so I haven't put a whole lot of attention into it, but it appears reckoner caught a few things I missed the first couple of times. I'll probably do a reread soon (not a hard one to do).

[Dragonfly13]

Reckoner is confirmed scum. Lynch him. Cow, back me up here. Sorry to kill everyone with my giant wall of text. Maybe take a breather halfway through.

Vote: xRECKONERx

I'm being aggressive because I

need the game to progress...

of course... I'm going V/LA until Thursday for Finals, so...

I bolded the part I find interesting. He needs the game to progress because he's scum. Town need all the time they can get, the more information the better! Freudian slip much?

4-way tie! Vote Count

Ryan Colt (2) - xRECKONERx, Mufasa,
Tubby216 (2) - hasdgfas, Bobo_the_monkey,
koriental (2) - tubby216, Dragonfly13
hasdgfas (2) - Ryan Colt, koriental,
xRECKONERx (1) - Baszie

Not voting: no-one

Keeping an IC around regardless of scumminess because they're an IC?

Vote: Mufasa

Here, Mufasa is voting for Ryan Colt, not cow. Unless I missed something, Mufasa believed at that point that Ryan was the most scummy. I don't think I saw Mufasa say anywhere that he wanted to keep cow around regardless, just that cow would probably be helpful to town, considering there are a majority of townies, the probability for cow to be town is high. (The probability for all of us is, actually, but I'm just trying to make a point.)

Actually, I thought you were rather scummy already...

this seems pretty scummy to me as well.

Connection?

Actually suggests we keep cow around regardless of scumlevel because he's helpful.

Why are you pushing Mufasa so much? I agree he was scummy as hell with his mindless voting behavior, but I have already said that I thought him town because of Bobo's vote on him. Look at what he flipped.

Well seeing as how I hadn't even really considered you very scummy,

This post is in response to cow and his questioning of reckoner's vote on him. Note how Reckoner "hadn't even really CONSIDERED" cow to be scummy, and yet he makes the point against Mufasa about "keeping cow around regardless of scumlevel."

Um... what? If he was town, scum would be hammering

immediately

.

This post is in response to bobo after a pretty powerful argument between the two basically about how scum should play the game. I don't like it. I would also like to note, Reckoner, that you are scum, and you hammered tubby quite

immediately

.

Day 1 observations.

Mufasa: Actually suggests we keep cow around regardless of scumlevel because he's helpful. Then randomly pops back in to switch his vote around to Koriental with no reasoning. It's just a bandwagoning attempt on someone who is, IMO, newbtown.

Notice here that Reckoner says he thinks koriental is newbtown.

I think koreintal is my strongest town read at the moment. Newbtown, but still town none the less. I can see the case on Tubby starting to build. I definitely dislike Dragonfly's pushiness now in retrospect.

And here.

Tubby - did you read my case? It wasn't good at all. In the end I said I don't think that you're mafia, I just wanted you to defend your vote against Dragonfly.

The second person Reckoner announces to be town is Tubby.

I doubt tubby is scum, simply because I've never seen scum get fed up and just say "Yeah, vote me, I don't care". Anytime it happens in a game I've been in, it's always frustrated town.

And here. Please note Reckoner hammered tubby.


And the third....

I honestly don't think the final scum is Mufasa.

Yet, after Night 2, Reckoner comments that it was stupid of mafia to kill the "most obvious scum."

When Bobo the scum is finally lynched, the only people not voting for him are Cow, Bobo himself, Ryan (who we now know was Doc), and koriental. The last person to hammer Bobo were Baszie and Tubby.

In my opinion, this makes Cow look quite scummy. He said he'd vote for Bobo pending a vote count, then never does. In light of these events, I will Vote: Hasdgfas. However, I'm still looking down the barrel at Baszie and Tubby and koriental, though it's much harder to read koriental's play due to his newbie status.

In the first line here, Reckoner makes a big deal of analyzing who did and who didn't vote for Bobo. I would like to personally note that Reckoner was the second vote on bobo, and I feel he thought he was safe voting bobo as #2, but wanted to keep his vote there so he could look town if bobo ended up lynched.

Reckoner then goes on to mention he's suspicious of koriental, along with tubby and baszie. Refer to his previous posts about his thoughts of koriental and tubby to see the mistake he made here.

With one vote to lynch me should I claim?

When mufasa posted this, I got a feeling that he might be a power role. I find it odd that you would think, reckoner, that he was playing scummy, and then note that mafia was "stupid" to kill him off. He could very well have been a power role, I don't understand you very well here. However, I believe analyzing NKs usually leads to WIFOM, so I won't take this any further than I already have.

Ok, guys, at this time I would like to take a closer look at post 193, because even though I already reposted part of it up there, you probably missed something I consider VERY important (I'm sure we all missed it several times, and I'm pretty happy to have caught it). Particularly this line:

When Bobo the scum is finally lynched, the only people not voting for him are Cow, Bobo himself, Ryan (who we now know was Doc), and koriental.

Find anything weird about this sentence? No? This is getting good.

Ryan was cop. NOT doc. Scum try very hard to find the doc. In fact, it's one of their major objectives. Once the doc is found, especially in a newbie game where there aren't any bulletproofs or other similar roles (BPs cannot be NKd by a shot), then mafia can kill the doc and the rest of the NKs will not be wasted.

This line really seals the deal for me when I think of reckoner as scum, because I consider it a Freudian slip by scum who, upon mentioning Ryan's power, accidentally post the role they are most interested in figuring out, doc.

I would also like to note that it is common for the doc to post as little as possible to stay under the radar. I'm not naming any names, but I believe Reckoner is currently voting for that player.

gg

[Dragonfly13]

Oh come on cow, you know I'm aggressive. Look at the evidence.

[Dragonfly13]

You kinda overreacted dude. That is the reason I play so aggressively, to see if I can get a reaction. Why are you so worried? ARE you worried that I'm voting for you?

Why, even after you "mistakenly" hammered tubby, did you think it was appropriate for you to come out with your first post on D2 with ANOTHER VOTE? Don't you think you should maybe play a little slower if you're that unstable? Or maybe you're scum.

Try... the game was stalling out, I was tired of waiting, so I was being aggressive in hopes it would move the game along. Needing the game to progress =/= needing a lynch. Progress can be as simple as gathering information... like you said.

I can agree with that.

Please see the post from Mufasa I quoted that you somehow missed completely.

I didn't miss it. I actually referenced it here:

I don't think I saw Mufasa say anywhere that he wanted to keep cow around regardless, just that cow would probably be helpful to town

Your wild claim that I kept my vote on Bobo (when I was only the second person!) just because I knew he'd be lynched is ridiculous. The town was quite on the way to heading for a Mufasa lynch when everything switched gears.

I may have found it potentially wild if you hadn't said town was on its way to lynching Mufasa. This actually strengthens my point. In my scenario with you being scum, I feel that the more you felt someone other than bobo was going to be lynched, the higher the chance you'd keep your vote on him. Actually, I recall you didn't vote bobo until after I did, which means town was headed for a bobo lynch, so I'll consider my point here moot.

So can people's opinions not change over time? I decided to approach the scumhunting from a new angle, the "who didn't vote for the scum D1" angle, which shed new light on them. I realized while I had attributed newbtown to Koriental, why couldn't that also be newbscum, as they are rather difficult to discern.

You're right, I shouldn't have pressed that so hard. I was actually just interested in how many people you were saying you didn't think were scum.

When he posted this and then claimed vanilla townie, and ONCE AGAIN: I DIDN'T REALIZE IT WAS ACTUALLY L-1... it made me raise an eyebrow, because it seemed as if he was reaching out for town help. I definitely did NOT get a PR read.

Did he claim? Point that out for me please. Are you getting confused between Mufasa and tubby or something? I can see how you would... they both played rather peculiarly.

What? So because I typo'd and thought Ryan was Doc instead of Cop, that's a big deal?

Actually, it is.

So, Dragonfly, you've hopped from case to case, using whatever flimsy amount of logic you can get to support your "arguments". From your weak vote on koriental, to your elaborate and dramatic case against Cow which you nearly immediately 180'd, and now your case that "confirms" me as scum. Why all the erratic vote-hopping?

I still find cow quite suspicious. If I wasn't voting for you, I'd be voting cow. My weak vote on koriental was indeed weak. He hadn't posted much and I was trying to get a read on him, which I now have.

I'm just asking you to slow the hell down and think things through more, because your cases can be easily latched onto by scum and manipulated into lynches. Of course, this is assuming you yourself aren't just and overeager scum...

I thought about you being scum for the better part of two days, and it just makes sense to me right now. I'd really like to know why you find Baszie so suspicious, other than the fact that he hasn't been around much. I consider it disinterest, probably not scum lurking to avoid attention. I would like to see him post more though, because lurking scum is always bad for town. So I can see why you might vote him for being anti-town, but not scummy (yes, there's a difference). Do you find Baszie suspicious or are you just trying to get him to speak up more?

Sorry for all the quotes, I like to point out specific parts of posts instead of the whole thing.

[Dragonfly13]

I actually really appreciate all the contributions you've made to the topic, koriental. You're doing quite well, imo. This could be considered either my first or third game... I had a second game play through in about two weeks on a different site, and I'm in another on mafiascum atm. I think you're progressing fine. Games on this site last a hell of a long time.

In that regard, thanks for commenting! Any discussion is good discussion and you're definitely doing your job.

I'm honestly just trying to get Baszie to talk more. I thought there was an off-chance Baszie could be scum due to the time-lapse as I stated earlier (and the fact that other players have seemingly disappeared, thus the night kill couldn't have been them)... but more or less, it was a pressure vote to make him show the fuck up.

I'd really like to see him get replaced, honestly. There's not really a whole lot to read through here, so a replacement might have more motivation to do something. I get the feeling scum want to keep him around because he's not doing much. That said, he could be simply sitting back and letting us kill each other off while he watches sadistically in his own little world.

We do have some room for error here. However, 3 votes lynch, so a vote is a LOT more powerful now. I may read a couple of your games (Reckoner) and see what I think if I can find the time.

So, I suppose now is the perfect time to call him out and get him in here. I just didn't like the way you did it so quickly after you made your mistake with tubby. Like I said, though, votes have more power now, but we really need to find some kind of consensus before anything major happens.

Reckoner, I'm not trying to personally attack you, I was just being extreme to see how you would react. This is a game after all, but a win would be nice. That said, I still find you to be the most likely scum at this point, so I'm leaving my vote where it is.

Baszie, could use some posting dude. Get in here.

[Dragonfly13]

Before I go to bed... Reckoner, what's your opinion of cow?

[Dragonfly13]

I just wanted to say... considering there's only one mafia left,

a lot of the town members are playing like shit

. Seriously.

I couldn't have said it better myself. *frown* The past ten or so posts have sent me on a wild goose chase.

Cow's vote on Baszie got me a little worried at first. Especially the point cow makes about Baszie "making a post very soon after being called out." Cow hasn't been around much recently, tbh. Though my view may be a little distorted because I feel reckoner and I have been a lot more active recently.

So it got me worried, so I read it a few more times and tried to make some sense of it where previously there wasn't much. He actually does make a lot of sense in forming a case against Baszie.. I am very thrown off by this:

Again, About the mafia trying to lynch a doctor: if there is no roleblocker, there also isn't a doctor. This means that mafia should be not trying to lynch a doctor. Dragonfly claimed that reckoner was trying to vote the doc, but if there is a doc, there is a roleblocker. I don't see why the doc needs to be lynched by the mafia if he can just be roleblocked. I think we can even assume there isn't a doctor at all.

Baszie assumes there is no roleblocker... I think this is a point cow made. This assumption seems to hold more scumweight than a simple freudian slip (perhaps it could even be called a freudian slip as well), but as I am SO confused by all of you at the moment I'm not yet comfortable with changing my vote. Cow, though baszie does throw suspicion around quite a bit, I feel he is subtly pushing in my direction. He says he thinks we can assume there isn't even a doc, which imo makes me look like I am the roleblocker for even bringing up doc. I don't like how he keeps saying I am assuming there is a doc in the game when I haven't assumed it. I merely brought up the fact that there is a possibility of a doc in the game in my case against reckoner. What's made me most interested in baszie is how hard he is pressing the idea of whether there is a roleblocker or simply another goon. No one but the doc knows that a doc exists in the game, if there is a doc. No one but the roleblocker knows that a roleblocker exists in the game if the other mafia is a roleblocker. We don't know if either of those two roles are in the game, so speculating is out of the question. Assuming is even worse, and I'm not even going to begin to assume anything about the setup other than the fact that there are four townies and one mafia left.

One more thing, why isn't koriental suspected by anyone?

Should he be? I'm starting to see more reasons why cow put you at L-1. You have too many fingers dude. We all do. Let's consider the fact that there is one mafia left and four townies. If this is the case, why are we pointing so many fingers when we should really only have one? I think most of us need more clarity of thought in general, myself included.

I have come to a point where I feel it might be necessary for me to begin reading some past games you guys have played. Not really sure when I'll have time to do that (summer engineering sucks and I'm actually taking a break from my all-nighter), but hopefully I can start this weekend.

With all of this said, I am ready to postpone my case against reckoner as more and more things are posted. I don't like the idea of two other people deciding his fate when I myself am not sure. I know I called you confirmed scum, reckoner, but being aggressive has paid off for me in the past, and I will not stop playing this way until I find a reason to do otherwise.

Unvote

Right now I'm most interested in Baszie and Reckoner. I concede that my confidence in my case against Reckoner has waned recently, as my case on cow did D2. You two are both playing very well, but when I think about this game when I'm away from the computer, I begin to drown in WIFOM because of it. Are you defending yourselves so well because you are town, or are you defending yourselves so well because you are very clever scum? I think it's fair to think that the last scum is being quite clever, but I'm not jumping to any conclusions.

what do you guys think?

I agree with the majority of your post. I assume there is a deadline for D3, but I'm pretty sure it's not for a while.

[Dragonfly13]

This post would probably find a better home at the mafia theory board, but I'd like to throw this idea out there anyway, because I don't think a small digression would really hurt considering how slow this game moves relative to a few others.

There are five players left, we'll call them A B C D and E.

If we lynch one of these players, say B, then the final four remaining are A C D and E. Then the night kill happens, and we are left with C D and E. If we make a mistake today, then tomorrow is lylo.

My suggestion is, why not ask each individual player something (I don't know what exactly) that, if a mislynch were to happen today, might help tomorrow considering that a couple of confirmed town will be dead by then?

[Dragonfly13]

No, I mean like a question tailored to each individual player. For example, Baszie, what do you think of cow and koriental?

Other players could be asked similar questions. Again, I'm not sure of the best way to go about this. "Who are your top two scum" might be better.

And feel free to ignore that question baszie.

[Dragonfly13]

Well, I just did a quick reread, and Baszie does look pretty scummy right now. Especially his Post 46 where, after voting Ryan, and then unvoting him because I noted he had placed ryan at L-1, he says he feels cow is more suspicious than ryan, even though cow had only one post between those two times.

Baszie's Post 39, where he votes Ryan, doesn't even provide a reason. He just says "I'm reluctant to jump on a bandwagon but that's what I'm going to do." I find it odd that after a single post made by cow baszie can change his opinion so quickly, unless his vote for ryan was simply there to speed up a lynch.

Vote: Baszie

[Dragonfly13]

@Dragonfly: Give me a read on Cow.

I'm largely unsure about cow. I'd say he's leaning scum, but pretty close to neutral. Well, at this point in the game, I'm trying to consider who is most scummy, not just who is scummy and who isn't. I've honestly never made it past night two in any of my games, so my endgame strategies may be a little unguided. At this point, I feel that the final scum has played quite cunningly, so I am a little worried cow may have us all played. If the final scum is indeed a clever player, he has left cow alive simply because of the idea that cow remaining alive for so long makes him quite suspicious. To me, Cow is sitting in a vat of WIFOM at the moment, because he has not been NKed. In all of my other games, scum killed off an experienced player quite early. My other idea is that scum has been lurking, which fits with baszie better.

So there are two possibilities here, regarding cow: 1) he is the final scum, because he has not been NKed, and 2) he is not the final scum, because he has not been NKed.

I feel that if baszie is the final scum, he has been pretty clever. The same goes for cow.

Cow does tend to find others suspicious fairly often, but he's pretty experienced, so I think he has the scumhunting advantage here. Several of his recent cases have at first appeared somewhat baseless to me, but on further inspection actually hold a lot of ground, so I definitely have a lot of experience left to gain. Cow is probably tied for second on my scumlist at the moment.

[Dragonfly13]

Actually

Unvote

and just

FOS: Baszie

, because I don't want day to end until it absolutely must.

[Dragonfly13]

Which question did I miss?

[Dragonfly13]

Lylo, or "lynch or lose," is a situation where there is one more townie than mafia and the game is in a day phase. In this example there would be two townies and one mafia left. In a lylo situation, town must correctly lynch scum every day until the game is over, otherwise the game has passed the lylo phase and mafia wins.

In a situation where there are more mafia than townies, say four mafia and three townies, mafia can simply lynch whoever they want until all remaining townies are dead, so any situation where there are more mafia than townies is considered an instant win for the mafia.

In a situation where the number of mafia is equal to the number of townies, mafia can all vote for one townie and force a no lynch (if the mod decides that a majority would cause a lynch at deadline, otherwise mafia would not have to vote at all), because even if all of town somehow correctly determine the roles of each player left in the game, the best they can do is L-1, they can't force a lynch. A no lynch ends day with no one lynched, so mafia just NKs someone and then they have the majority, so any situation where there is an equal number of mafia and townies is also considered a win for the mafia.

This doesn't take into account the possibility of third parties, because there are none in a newbie game, but just to give you a general idea of a possible endgame situation if whomever we decide to lynch today somehow turns up town.

I do agree that we should ask reckoner a question, in fact I was going to ask him one myself but I haven't been around to give it any thought. I'm pretty busy today so I don't know when that will be really.

[Dragonfly13]

Cow, who, after baszie, do you find to be the most scummy, and why?

Reckoner, same question.

[Dragonfly13]

Baszie, who are your top two scum candidates?

[Dragonfly13]

I would like to note that we have nearly two weeks until deadline and I would prefer that no one else vote for baszie for at least a few days or until I change my mind.

[Dragonfly13]

Okay, I was just feeling a need to be a bit cautious, because I really do think I will be killed tonight if baszie flips town. We'll see.

Vote: Baszie

I've also had quite a lack of sleep the past week or so. Meh. :/

[Dragonfly13]

I'd like to note that if anyone votes for anyone else (provided that first vote wasn't cast by scum), then scum can just hammer and the game will be over. So, don't vote until you're absolutely sure.

[Dragonfly13]

That said, I think cow is the final scum.

[Dragonfly13]

That said, cow, tell me why you're not scum. Convince me.

[Dragonfly13]

Well first, cow, who do you find scummiest between me and koriental?

[Dragonfly13]

You do seem to vote a lot more than koriental does, and you led a lot of lynches on townies this whole game. You didn't vote for bobo, even though I have no reason to believe you found anyone more suspicious at that point. Bobo never mentioned you in his posts, he only responded to you when you asked him questions. I find that scum tend to leave their buddies out of their thoughts. Bobo also voted koriental at one point, but never voted for you. You never voted for bobo, and neither did koriental.

I would like you both to have a look at these few posts:

Post 12
Post 31
Baszie's Post 46
Post 49 "Anyone else notice how quiet tubby's been since I mentioned that?"

I feel there are things to comment on in these posts, but I don't have time to do it tonight, so I'll be stupid and leave half of my case against cow for you guys to have a stab at. Post 49 in particular stands out, because it is more of an attempt to get town gunning for tubby than anything.

[Dragonfly13]

I'm taking a break from homework to post.

I said I thought I'd be killed if baszie flipped town because I wanted to remain in the game if the game went to a final day, and I thought saying something a little controversial so that I wouldn't look as town as I feel I did at that point. Meaning I would have a higher chance of surviving to today.

I'll try to make points on both of you tomorrow or soon to see what you think of each other, and of me.

[Dragonfly13]

Thanks for speaking up, koriental. I'd hoped someone would. I was going to point out the lack of discussion myself. It is odd to me that I am suspicious of cow and he decides to lurk. I was actually lurking to see who would speak up first. Now I feel even more strongly that cow is the last mafia. I'd support it with reasons but half if not more of the reasons why I find cow suspicious can be found in my previous lengthy case against him.

Leaving the game for 5 days is not protown at all. I've been checking in, but like I said, I wanted to see who would speak up first. What's your opinion of cow, koriental?

[Dragonfly13]

First of all, koriental's post 4 was actually his vote on you. His post 5 is where he asks you to get someone else to defend you. On the other hand, why aren't you just identifying our posts with their actual post numbers? It'd be much easier to follow what you have to say. Koriental's post 16. By this I assume you mean Post 228. I'm not seeing where he says he's suspicious of people who try to confirm someone as town, though I agree with you. People who attempt to confirm others as town ARE, in fact, suspicious. It was for this reason that I was so reluctant to vote Baszie yesterday. Reckoner did a lot of "townie-confirming."

But of course, you missed korientals

actual

Post 4, so your version of his post 16 would be Post 240. Okay, I see where you're talking about now. I'll assume koriental's post 17 was your version of his post 16, so his post... 21 would be your 20? See what I mean? Just refer to the post numbers themselves, please. It's a lot less confusing. Post 285 is what I assume you're calling his 20th. You say you were thinking the exact same thing, and yet you hadn't posted any of your own personal thoughts until now, six days after koriental makes his points there.

It's not a coincidence you thought this game was in the night phase.

My post 10, I know exactly which one you're talking about. It was my first really obvious mistake of the game. I knew I was voting you "without a reason," though I had one, which should've been obvious because I said I would provide examples of why I voted you if anyone cared, but I did so to prove to town that I am a bold player who will stop at nothing to get scum lynched.

My post 13: I was beginning to have some small doubts that you were scum here, cow. I think that's obvious. But you're scum pushing for my lynch today, so I'm not surprised with your case on me. Post 17, I "called you out ot help on Reckoner." Yep, I did. Because at that point, jokes aside, I thought reckoner was scum. However, you hadn't done much to help out the whole game, and I still considered you a prime suspect, so I prodded you to see how you would respond. Is that a crime?

Posts 22 and 33 that you're referencing are really ridiculous of you to be pointing out, cow. I suspect you're just pulling whatever you can off the page to try to make me look bad so you can get koriental on your side, which is the side that would lose town the game. This also allows me to begin to see the differences between the two of you. Cow, as the last scum, you know I am on your case, so you're reaching out to the other player you know to be town, koriental, to help you win the game. This is obvious, and it is allowing me to be more certain of our roles here. The more you reach out, the more I think koriental is town.

I'm getting sick of looking through the topic to find which posts correspond to

your

post numbers, so I'll comment on a general idea of which posts you're referencing. Post 38, voting more is suspicious because sometimes it can mean that you're looking for wagons, pressing for lynches. I know I have had my share of cases on townies that I thought were really good, but like I said, after more information becomes available, you start to look at the players in the game in a different way. This is part of the reason why I abandonded my case against you, cow. The other reason I abandoned my case on you was, in case this very situation arose, where it was me, you, and someone else in lylo, I would be able to fight you off myself and win the game for town.

Post 40

is

complete crap. I was actually intending to call you out for not posting in five days, cow, but when I checked the topic I saw that koriental had posted, so I commented that I felt the same way instead of calling you out. We still have fourteen days until the deadline, but I don't really think we'll need two weeks to finish the game, so I wanted to play a little game to see if koriental would, in fact, post first. And I wasn't disappointed.

Forgot this was actually in day. Mixed it up with my other newbie game, which is in night.

Bull. If you were town, you would have been checking back in on this topic as much as me and, I assume, koriental have been. Therefore, you would have known, as I and koriental did, that this game is in fact in the day phase. However, you know that the game is in lylo, and you think, cow, that as the last scum, that you've won. But you haven't yet. I'm onto you and you have to get koriental on your side to win. So, you post some commentary, a Post-By-Post-Analysis, if you will, on me and koriental. It is obvious from your commentary that you're buddying up to koriental and gunning for my lynch. In analyzing four of koriental's posts, you don't like two of them, but you do like the other two.

In analyzing seven of mine, you don't like any of them.

I hope, koriental, that you're following me closely, because we do need each other to win the game against cow, who I am now one-hundred percent sure of being scum. Note that I merely said I was suspicious of cow, but didn't actually build a case against him until this post. Of course, there's always the possibility of you being the last mafia, koriental, but I think the chances of that are slim to none at this point. And cow attempting to build a case on me to get your support just solidifies the idea that cow is the last mafia, in my mind.

I hope you'll also remember that I led the lynch on bobo, who was the other mafia. I even called for a deadline extension to get more people to get in and vote for him! Any mafia member would have just let the game go through the deadline with a no lynch, because it brings them one step closer to winning the game!

Cow did not vote bobo. Koriental, you didn't either, but like I said, it's irrelevant, because cow is scum and you're not. I'm not going to say I know for a fact that I, myself, am town, because it's pure WIFOM, but I'd just like you to sit down and consider the possibilities before making your decision, koriental. I am so sure, in fact, that cow is mafia, that I am going to go ahead and vote for him.

Vote: hasdgfas

You may question why I did this, especially when I've said in the past that we should wait as long as possible to vote, so allow me to clarify. If cow is mafia, then a vote on him means he cannot hammer one of us, unless

you

vote. Of course, I'm going to feel rather stupid if you turn out to be scum, koriental, but I think I've already made myself clear. If I wasn't sure, I wouldn't vote. Koriental, if you're town, I suggest you look back at all of cow's questionable behavior and give it some thought before making your decision. If you vote for me, I can assure you, town

will

lose the game.

[Dragonfly13]

bah

[Dragonfly13]

I think we were too good for our own good, if that makes sense.

I think it was mostly my bickering that led us to failure. Oh yeah, and my vote at the end. /facepalm

[Dragonfly13]

then reckoner opened his mouth and got an extension for day 1!!! that sucked.

Actually, that was me. I'm actually kinda surprised at cow's play. A lot of people played scummy, which made it very difficult. But I thought my vote on bobo would have been an easy town tell for cow on the final day, being the IC. Since he didn't take me for town I took him for scum, and that's how it ended. Good game everyone.

[Dragonfly13]

Well, as scum, there was no reason for me to change the day's lynch from mufasa to bobo. I agree it can be dangerous, but I also think looking for town tells increases the chances of town winning the game.