Newbie 869 - Game over

[totallynotmafia]

Hi guys I'm totallynotmafia!

This is my first game ever so you'll have to bare with me, I've read through a couple of other games though while I've been waiting so I think I have the general gist of it. I'll read through the game first and then try to offer some ideas.

[totallynotmafia]

Thanks, lol

Okay, I didn't realise it would take that long (probably should have left it til morning) but I've read through the entire thread and jotted down some notes.

Firstly, while I've worked out most of the other terms, I'm still not sure what FoS, OMGUS, and WIFOM mean, could somebody please fill me in. I'm guessing that L-1 means that the person only needs one more vote to be lynched, and the person who does this is the hammer.

Secondly, while reading through the thread I couldn't help getting the feeling, time and again, that Deer and Jee are both scum and are working together. I know this has been a suspicion of many people but I actually thought this before Elibereth first alluded to it with th whole "bussing" fiasco. I agree with him, if you go back it's quite clear that Jee made a vote for Deer out of the blue without any explanation, and if you notice that this was after Jee jumped on Deer's vote for Twilight in the random voting stage it can be seen that Jee was then trying to distance himself from his partner-in-crime. When asked about this Jee then said "I have my reasons", and then when he was told this was too vague Jee's reasons for voting Deer were all pretty weak and seemed as if they were concocted afterwards.

Also, still on Jee, he didn't want to answer DLA's three questions for everybody, perhaps because he thought it would give away that he is scum. Then, when Ellie pressed him to answer them he did, and to the question: What role do you prefer playing?
he answered: "doesn't matter. both of them make you work just as hard".
This to me seems like he is trying hard not to give away anything by saying both, afterall, there are more than just two roles, why was he thinking just town and mafia?

Back to Deer, he jumped on the DLA bandwagon with what seemed to me pretty weak reasoning when was a few off being lynched. Also he over-defended his first vote on the first page after it was bandwaggoned, which was supposed to be random anyway.

Also I found that the pair's discussion on the night kill was a bit dubious.

Anyway, I hope I'm not completely wrong and I'm not just affected by tunnel vision....if I am I'm sorry to the both of you but as I read through the thread I just couldn't help getting this feeling. I think that alternatively Ellie could be the scum with Deer, as DLA's post about the two before he was Lynched made a lot of sense, and others are pretty adamant that he is scum.

Other than that I can't seem to see anyone else who would be obviously scum. I'm guessing we're pretty much screwed if we don't lynch a scum this turn so my vote is for Deer. Now I really should to go to bed, I encourage people to go back and look at those first few pages to see what I mean.

Vote: Deer

[totallynotmafia]

Cool, thanks for that, yeah it all makes sense. Except what do you mean by LyLo?

[totallynotmafia]

Ok, thanks again. I really can't see myself changing my vote unless someone provides a pretty good argument to convince me otherwise. Everyone other than who I've mentioned seem to be genuinely trying to get to the bottom of things...of course that could just mean that they're good at this game, but seeing as this is my first time playing I think it would be stupid of me not to go with my instincts.

[totallynotmafia]

Well I thought I did give reasons in my post. The main thing was your out-of-the-blue vote for Deer without any explanation which seemed like a way of you and him pretending not to be working together. Then when someone asked you for reasons, I thought they were pretty weak and just an afterthought when you were forced to explain yourself. Here they are:

I was first checking to see a reaction, looking for a scummy reaction.

This early in the game we don't have much to go on, and I looked at this post:

In regards to the vote, I'm sticking with what jee said. I don't FOS twilight for any reason at all (yet ) so there's no need to keep the vote. We've learned some valuable things, I think.

I thought it may be some sort of buddying. So I decided to expand with that and look for other things he has done. SO PBPA I suppose...

#1

Not really a fan of random voting, but...

vote: RPG*Twilight

because I don't like the twilight series

This could totally be his opinion... but he seems to point out that he isn't a fan of RVS. Saw it maybe as planting seeds in minds to associate him with town because he doesn't like randomly voting for someone.

#2

So where do these random votes take us?

Empty post.

#3,4,5
Longer, defending himself on being innocent. I saw this as over defending himself. I don't think really anyone was is accusing him.. after all, he placed the first vote, what could someone honestly be worried with?

#6
The post above. It struck me as buddying. His #4 also had a little buddying in it, defending my 2nd vote saying it was random.

It was enough at this point in the game for me to put a vote on him.

So one of your reasons to vote him was because he was buddying. Well, here's the weird part:

jee, I'm confused on who you think I'm "buddying" with.

then:

me

wtf? Your reason for voting for Deer was because he was buddying with you?

Well then that makes no sense. Seriously, there seems to be nothing I can do that you will not call scummy. I place a random vote, that's "planting seeds in the town's mind." I try to defend myself against what I thought was an accusation from Mr. Finch, then "oh, that's overdefending." I try to clear up a misquotation, that's "buddying." Are you going to call this "overdefending?" Because that's honestly bullshit. I haven't had much experience with these forum mafia games, but I was acting as a normal human being would act in the situations I was put under. Your illogical reasons are why I'm voting you right now.

Vote: jee

And the oscar goes to...

Well actually that was my first impression of this post, but now I'm not 100% sure it was an act. I think I need to hear from Deer to be totally clear...I fear.

Also Jee, by just stating who your two main suspects are without giving any reasons and asking for everyone elses makes me think that you are looking for a target for the night kill, ie someone who is suss of you or the other mafia. Could you give reasons as to why Deer and Ellie are your two main suspects?

[totallynotmafia]

Well overdefending I guess is defending something that you really shouldn't have to defend, such as a random vote, which Deer did. Although looking back, it wasn't as bad as I originally thought it was.

I voted for Deer over Jee because DLA highlighted in his last post that both you and him have voted together a lot, and so if the scum pair is either Jee-Deer or Deer-you then voting for Deer would be the safest option, though I must say I'm much more suspicious of Jee. I think Deer defended my accusations fairly well and now I'm starting to think I might just be tunnelling him because of Jee.

I think RPG is obviously a good player and must have played before as he/she handled your bandwagonning of him/her pretty well, whereas others might have freaked out. I think RPG is part of the reason I have suspected Jee as well, because taking over RPG has almost given me a slight advantage as I have another person's opinions that I know are unbiased and RPG was FoS of Jee during day 1, before that whole DLA fiasco. I think if mafia win they can certainly thank DLA!

Anyway, now I'm confused...this is much harder than I thought. It's hard too because we're all new, and so the things that I could be suspecting people of as scum might just be because they don't realise that even though you're a townie people will suspect you as scum if you don't do certain things. Then again, these could be newbie mistakes while they're mafia. I don't think I can think like this though otherwise it's just gonna add another level of paranoia to the game, so with that in mind:

Unvote, Vote: Jee

[totallynotmafia]

Yeah of course, we both have the same alignment afterall. I'm glad I replaced someone who didn't really have any suspicion on them, it would be great if I was mafia.

[totallynotmafia]

Ooh my first vote, how exciting!

Well considering that I can't really defend RPG's comments except to say that I know that he (I'll assume RPG's a he) was town, that seems like a very calculated scum attack on me. First you ask if his actions carry over in determning my allignment (which is obvious, did you really need to ask this?) as the setup and then you go back and drag up things he has previously said, knowing that I can't defend them. Why didn't you bring this up back when he first said them?

Well I intend to at least try and defend your accusations on RPG as it seems like you're just clutching at straws.

Firstly, even though I didn't think it made you scum because surely mafia wouldn't be that stupid, he has every right to question the motives of someone who bandwagons on day one. His main problem was that you said "WAAAAAGOOOOOON" implying that you were trying to get other people to jump on too.

Also how can you say that by attacking Jee and DLA those are easy targets? Other people have been suspicious of them too, including you! Were you attacking easy targets as well?

Then you said:

Day 2 comes and he puts up #17

RPG wrote:

This makes no sense. EVERYONE got on DLA, that's what makes this difficult. And DLA was our BWCS, given that he offered us nothing when SensFan had to repeatedly ask what he was talking about. DLA was making no sense to anyone, so it's really a null-tell. I think it's more the fact I think scum took advantage of this.


He sure did.

Well if you look at the actual quote in context...

Mr. Finch wrote:
My other candidate right now is SensFan. He started on DLA (admittedly DLA did not help himself at all) and never let up until he got what he wanted when we lynched a townie.


This makes no sense. EVERYONE got on DLA, that's what makes this difficult. And DLA was our BWCS, given that he offered us nothing when SensFan had to repeatedly ask what he was talking about. DLA was making no sense to anyone, so it's really a null-tell. I think it's more the fact I think scum took advantage of this.

...you'll see that RPG was actually defending Sens, and pointing out that everyone is guilty of voting for DLA, even himself.

Quote:

He didnt do any of his part, that I understand, but now that I re-read this with new information, the word "hypocritical" "demanded" "most suspicious" "hounded" seems like a plea to hound DLA.


How in the world do those sound like a plea? I have no idea

I'm guessing that RPG was getting at the fact that they are emotional words, used to stir people up into doing something, like a football coach would use at half-time or Mel Gibson would in Braveheart.

I don't really understand your response to the third quote, but it is true that you have gone off your suspicions of Jee and Deer with a vote for DLA and now a vote for me. Can you tell me where they stand with you now?

Lastly you say that he was trying to make cases out of nothing, which is what you seem to be doing here. I'm guessing that RPG was holding off on voting in order to prevent a mis-lynch, particularly how he has already seen that people aren't afraid to bandwagon.

My suspicions of you before were mainly only because other people had consistently suspected you, but after this I have to say:

FoS: Ellibereth

I don't really see the point of the fos thing but the thing that's not making me change my vote to you yet is because if you ARE mafia, I don't understand why you would go after me when I am suspicious of your two main suspects all along, you could easily sit back and vote for them too while being completely consistent. That is unless one of them really is your scum-buddy, and the whole thing was just an act and you distancing yourself or even "bussing", which you apparently know all about.

[totallynotmafia]

Well that helps to alleviate some of my suspicion of you, seeing as that now you are giving reasons for your suspects. I was going to ask you what you consider the tells to be, but if you are town then I suppose the mafia can use that information to their advantage.

I don't know what it is, but there's something that I can't quite put my finger on surrounding the relationship between Finch, Ellie and SensFan.

I have no idea about Tuberkulos. I think it would help the town if everybody posted more, though I can understand people have things to do. I'm lucky we are on summer holidays here in Australia.

[totallynotmafia]

Ellie, I wasn't voting for you because we need to lynch scum or we're pretty much screwed, and I was more convinced that Jee was scum than you. I' dont know if it's WIFOM, I just think that if you are scum you would be better off voting for Jee because he's been a suspect of yours all along and there has been a fair amount of suspicion on him. Seems like the easier option to me. However, if you are scum-buddies with Jee that would explain it.

And I meant that I had been tunnelling Deer and Jee as mafia when I first read through the thread, and reading back I see that most of my suspicion of Deer was due to this association, rather than due to his actual posts.

However, I have been thinking of another game I read where the town lost and part of it was because everyone missed a big clue. I had a hunch that we were too and now a recent post has just confirmed it. That's all I'll say cause I'm already worried I've said too much.

Unvote, Vote Ellibereth

I'm in the hectic process of moving house so I may not be able to post for a couple of days, hopefully everything will be sorted out by tomorrow.

[totallynotmafia]

Cop, I have an innocent on jee.
And TNM, withholding information?

The only thing I'm withholding is information that I think would benifit the mafia if they knew it...although they may have clued onto it already...and then again I could be wrong about it myself.

I'm dubious of this cop claim, but I think it at least warrants an unvote, seeing as you did supect Jee on day one.

Unvote

However, you could just as easily be lying and trying to clear your scum-buddy in the process.

I might be mistaken but I took it that there may be a possibility that there is no cop, if so this means that there may be no counter claim.

Ellie, you're going to have to prove this somehow, or at least be a little more convincing, otherwise I'm going to put my vote back on you.

[totallynotmafia]

Ellie, I'm dubious of your claim for three reasons:

1) You were at L-1, and thus don't have much to lose if you are scum. DLA being honest and claiming vanilla townie didn't help him one bit, the cop claim is the obvious choice.

2) You came up with Jee as innocent and I've already stated that I'm suss of you two being scum-buddies.

3) I have the feeling that someone else is the cop, just from their posts. I could be wrong about this however.

And now yours and Jee's votes for Deer consecutively just make me think you're both scum-buddies again. I really don't know what to believe now, I don't want to lynch the cop but obviously you're not even prepared to try and back-up this claim, all you've said is "Cop, I have an innocent on jee." Do you really expect me to just give up all my suspicion of you purely based on a claim that there is no way to verify?

Also, both Deer and Mr Finch had the opportunity to hammer you, I think they could have successfully gotten away with that had they chosen to. Now that Jee has removed his vote I think I can safely put the pressure back on you.

Vote Ellibereth

I would like to hear from SensFan, Deer, and Mr Finch.

[totallynotmafia]

I went back through the thread to see if there are any contradictions to this claim.

These are from Day 2, post 212-216, after Ellie has supposedly received an innocent on Jee.

jee wrote:
ALSO, if I were scum, why, out of anybody, would I choose AD to nightkill. AD's indecisive decisions would be a perfect accusation to push toward and get him mis-lynched. Why would I make it hard on myself and kill my 'top suspect'. I would then be required to fabricate another accusation on someone else.. It just doesn't make sense to me.


I'm not sure, but is this WIFOM or not?

I believe it is classified as WIFOM

Do you think using WIFOM is scummy?

I believe that both town and scum use it, and because of that, using WIFOM can be used as a case supporter for further incrimination, but not a sole reason for an accusation.

Do you think using bad logic is scummy?

Ellie, why would you bother purusing this line of questioning if you already know for a fact that Jee is innocent?

[totallynotmafia]

You know its easy as hell to tell who you're talking about in #3

HOW THE HELL AM I SUPPOSE TO BACK MY CLAIM UP?

I've said several times I disliked Deer's lack of scumhunting and that's a massive scumtell.

Give me a concrete case of why you think jee and I are scum. What do you think about deer's complete lack of scumhunting and Sen's uber-tunneling?

Eh what? Why would you think that scum would get away with hammering the cop??

Hey, I'm just trying to help. Like I said, I really don't want to lynch the cop, but it's a bit hard to just suddenly give up all my suspicions. I was merely trying to give you the opportunity to convince me that you are the cop and prevent me from making a blunder that will probably result in the town losing. That's fine if there's nothing you can do to prove it, I'm just saying that you can't blame me for not just taking your word for it, as that would be a pretty stupid blunder on my account as well if you are indeed mafia.

[totallynotmafia]

Ok, well the suspicion outweighs the claim at the moment, but like I said, I need to hear from the others first.

[totallynotmafia]

You have a couple of questions from 311 you need to anwser.

I've already given a fair amount of reasons for you and Jee, if I have time tomorrow though I'll do a quote-by-quote summary.

I haven't noticed Deer's lack of scum-hunting, I'll go back and read over his posts again. As Nacho said though, we have to be careful who we lynch, and I'm not sure that it is a solid reason to lynch someone.

I think you know what I think about Sens tunnelling...

If I was mafia I would have probably taken that risk of hammering you if you were the cop, seeing as there were others more adamant that you are scum ie Sens and me, who would probably get more of the blame for the mis-lynch. Then again, this is my first game so if I was mafia I would probably be crap.

If we lynch Sens, he most likely will flip scum. If this happens, we hit scum and don't have to worry about LyLo at all. If Sens flips town, we lynch you and hit scum next day. That way, the worst case scenario is that we end up in a 2 town 1 scum LyLo, which has chances that I like a lot better than a 3 town 2 scum scenario.

I'm glad you said this because I was thinking the same thing, of voting for Deer and then if he is town going lynching Ellie (most likely followed by Jee). It probably makes more sense to do this with SensFan though.

TNM, if Sens was the cop, then he would've done 1 of 2 thing.

1) He would've claimed long ago to get Elli lynched. A scum for a cop is a VERY good trade.

2) He would've made a more convincing case.

And I'd also like to point out the fact that you're about to lynch a claimed cop because you believe that there's a cop with a guilty on someone, even though that person hasn't inferred or said anything of the sort.

Okay, the cat's out of the bag and there is a cop claim so this is why I thought SensFan was cop:

Vote: Ellie. Should have stuck to my gut yesterday.

This seems as though he got the guilty response on Ellie, and so immediately put the vote on him. In a later post he says "Ellie's still scum guys", and so I was certain that he was trying to drop hints that he had investigated Ellie as guilty without actually revealing himself as cop. Oh well, we'll see I guess.

[totallynotmafia]

Yeah but telling everyone about it isn't. I don't think there's anything wrong with town having a lynch plan if they want to avoid LyLo.

[totallynotmafia]

I can't believe I didn't think of this earlier....

Unvote, Vote Jee

If he flips mafia, then Ellie is a big fat liar and it's game over. If he flips innocent then we save a cop. I've been suspicious of Jee the whole time so unless anyone can see a major flaw in this plan I'm sticking with it.

[totallynotmafia]

Sorry if it was my bad you had to claim, should have just kept my mouth shut.

Unvote, Vote Ellibereth

Merry Christmas! Guess now we'll find out for sure if you've been naughty or nice.

[totallynotmafia]

If Ellie is scum then I'm almost certain the other is Jee. If Ellie was telling the truth then we lynch SensFan next and go from there. Either way I think the town is in a pretty good position now.

[totallynotmafia]

Well I think if you look back there's quite a bit that links Jee with Ellibereth (they both just voted for Deer, Ellie saying Jee is innocent, Ellie attacking me straight after I voted Jee) so if Ellie is scum then it makes a pretty good case for Jee too.

But you're right, we can address this later. Just putting some of my thoughts out there in case I get shot.

[totallynotmafia]

Oh wow, santa was good to us this year! Merry Christmas everyone! I just have one question though is it possible that the mafia didn't meet the deadline, or is the kill just randomised in that case?

Yeah, I'm

FoS Jee

too, but before I make a case I'll see if SensFan got a result which would save a lot of trouble.

[totallynotmafia]

First off... No kill wooooo!!!

Second... Seeing as there was no nightkill, there probably is a doctor. And if sens is telling the truth, then there is a cop. Meaning there is a roleblocker... So sens was probably roleblocked.

Third... Before anyone starts voting for me. Let me make my case. It should be up by at least late tonight.

Well if there is a doctor, wouldn't the doctor have protected SensFan, which means surely the mafia wouldn't have both roleblocked and tried to kill SensFan, that would be pointless. Maybe the remaining mafia tried to block who they thought was the doctor and kill SensFan, which would really make more sense to do the other way round.

[totallynotmafia]

Sorry guys I'm gonna be away for at least the next two days. I urge you not to lynch anybody without hearing from Sens first.

[totallynotmafia]

Hey just posting to say I'm back, still waiting on SensFan though...

[totallynotmafia]

Well I guess that should make it pretty clear I'm town, seeing as there is only one scum left in the game. I'm so getting shot next, aren't I? Oh well, I better make sure we lynch the right person now then...

Nachomamma, if SensFan is scum, wouldn't it make more sense for him to act as if he was roleblocked than clear someone as innocent? However, I have had in the back of my mind the whole time that both SensFan and Ellie could be mafia, and that it would be one of the biggest busses in history and a pretty good way to clear one of them as the cop, setting up a good chance at a mafia win...there's a few things that don't quite add up though and I don't think an IC would be so mean to a newbie scumbuddy to bus them right from the start....that is unless Ellie had no problem with it.

SensFan, I would like to know why you investigated me...apart from Ellie's suspicion there wasn't a whole lot on me, which leads me to think that if you are scum acting as cop you could easily clear me as innocent and then shoot me the next night.

As for my vote, I have differing levels of suspicion on everyone:

SensFan:

as I have mentioned, could be scum acting as cop, an ingenious plan from day 1 (although I dont even know how early both scum can talk to each other) where both Ellie and Sens claim cop, when one flips as scum then the other is cleared as cop and gets a free ride to the end. However I think it is foolish to lynch based on this now... I think only near the end of the game if SensFan keeps surviving should this be considered...what a blunder it would be to lynch the cop! Which brings me to my next suspect...

Nachomamma8:

just voted for Sens who has a pretty good chance of being cop. Add to this that whole confusing vote for Finch just before and the scum suspicion is rising. Then there was the point where he threatened us if we hammered Ellie, who turned out to be scum! However, I think this was more likely a genuine attempt to avoid lynching someone after they just claimed cop.

Then, the most damning evidence of all...

Lining up lynches is a scumtell IMO.

If you think my lynching plan is a bad idea, speak up. Saying something's a scumtell doesn't make it so.

You missed 321

mate.

I'm calling it a day and going to bed..

Mates with the scum, eh? lol

However, I think Nacho has done some genuine scum-hunting, enough to counter-balance some of these suspicions for now. Which leads me to...

Mr Finch and Deer:

Really not sure about these two, but their lack of accusations (comparatively) could be a method of flying under the radar. I'm going to have to go back and look at them again. But for now:

Jee:

I have been suspicious of him right from the start:


Firstly, there's the constant bandwaggoning:

Unvote
Vote: RPG*Twilight

Copy Cat. For using the same reason for his random vote, as i did, one post earlier.

My thoughts so far:
Elli has been under suspicion for a while now. Just claimed cop and investigated me.
At this time. I don't know how I feel about the claim. Right now, I believe it.

Unvote

Which leads me to my next suspicion.

Vote: Deer

Maybe the remaining mafia tried to block who they thought was the doctor and kill SensFan, which would really make more sense to do the other way round.

I guess so. But that is a huge gamble to take. I don't see it ever happening with out a definite doc tell from a townie.


And Nachomamma brings up a good point which will be the main jist of my case.

First off, I believe SensFan's cop claim. I'd like to know the outcome of his check, and possibly who it was on.

Second, I have turned away from Deer for now on being Mafia. An explaination why:

1. Deer hammered Elli. Very surprising to do if the two were scum buddies. I mean, yah it could happen... but very risky.
2. In post 307,

Guys, we hit deadline in less a week btw.

Unvote, Vote Deer

He's shown consistent lack of scumhunting and a habit of only reacting to posts specifically directed toward him. The rare times he has questioned someone has been mimicries of previously asked questions.

I expect Sens to post more after his finals are over.

Usually mafia will try to change peoples mind when the time is running out. Like a desperation lynch. Which is what I see this post as. He is running out of time (which he states) and votes for Deer. Why would he vote for his scumbuddy on his desperation lynch? It could be seen as further distancing right before he comes to an inevitable lynch, but this was before he started getting all the votes and before Sens said he was cop.

Those are the things that stuck out for Deer being town.


Next on the list:

After rereading the thread to look at Deer and SensFan, I noticed something interesting. Mr.Finch was the only one who didn't vote last night. I kinda had a weird feeling about him on Day 2 also, so I decided to reread from the beginning, knowing that Elli was scum. If you look in the beginning, they do some useless arguing on whether or not they think certain things are scummy or not. Of course, the two were on opposite sides of the argument.

Example Post 29. this one stuck out for me:

WAAAGOOOON!!

Unvote, Vote RPG*Twilight

Why? Isn't this a particularly Scummy thing to do?

Unvote

FoS Ellibereth

I don't think it's scummy. Why do you think it is.

Another thing... know Elli is scum, look at post 332. This is the very next post after SensFan comes out as cop and tells the town who is guilty:

Well, cats and pigeons spring to mind. TBH, that was exactly what I was expecting Sens to say. Potential for huge WIFOM here though...

Who's the scubuddy in your opinion then Sens?

By an unofficial vote count (me reading and making a note from Mod's last count) Elli's at 1 vote, Deer at 2.

The underlined might go by unnoticed normally, but looking back... this looks like he is trying to see if he is next on the list.

Then the very next post is him again:

EBWOP: I am inclined (considering my last post reference newbie 843) to go with Sens as cop right now and vote for Elli. No rush yet though, Deadline's not until Thursday.

Ooh! Just realised something else. It's said (in this game I think!) Town prefer longer days:

Guys, we hit deadline in less a week btw.

Hmm...

He believes SensFan, but doesn't want to vote?....What?

Then he disappears up until Deer hammers Elli.


So, check it out. I would suggest reading through the thread again. If you don't have time, read through it in iso with Elli and Mr.Finch.

Vote Mr.Finch

All of these votes were made right after somebody else voting for the same person.



Then there's the random votes and accusations, out of the blue without explanation:

@ Twilight. yah that wasn't me. you confused me. Also, you don't want to say, "Oh I'm not going to random vote during RVS, so I will put a second vote on someone." That may create suspicion on me. I saw that you had one vote, so I put a second one on to create pressure, discised as a random vote.

And look at where that got us. DISCUSSION WOO.



and yah... avatar will come. i'll pick something random.

On another note,

vote Deer

Anyway, I hope I'm not completely wrong and I'm not just affected by tunnel vision....if I am I'm sorry to the both of you but as I read through the thread I just couldn't help getting this feeling.

No need to apologize. This whole game is full of accusations: right and wrong.

@Mr.Finch:
http://www.mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=Bussing

Bussing is the act of distancing yourself from your partners, usually by helping to lynch them.

Bussing and distancing go hand in hand.

As for TNM's (totally not mafia) attack, its kind of hard to defend against an accusation from 'feeling'. So if there are some specific things, I can defend those.




So how about everyone posting their top two suspects?
Ill go first. Deer and Elliberth.

My thoughts so far:
Elli has been under suspicion for a while now. Just claimed cop and investigated me.
At this time. I don't know how I feel about the claim. Right now, I believe it.

Unvote

Which leads me to my next suspicion.

Vote: Deer

Thirdly, there's this:

mod: thread still says 'Night 2'

yah tnm, I kinda just want mr.finch to claim for now though.

This seems like he is trying to out the Doc.

Fourthly, there's Ellibereth clearing Jee as innocent during his cop-claim. Now, there's so much WIFOM that could go with this that this alone I wouldn't use to prove Jee is scum, but it could easily be a way of clearing your scum-buddy if nobody counter-claims.

And lastly, but definately not leastly, as it is the major reason I suspect Jee:

My very first vote was for Deer, as I thought he may be scum-buddies with Jee. Then, Ellie asked why I was voting for Deer, over Jee. After some more thought and some decent answers from Deer, I changed my vote to Jee.

This is when Ellie made a calculated attack on me.

Why go to all this trouble if he is not trying to save his scum-buddy? Ellie could have easily voted for Jee, somebody he had suspected all along, and got a much easier mis-lynch.

Vote: Jee

[totallynotmafia]

Uhh, this is a lot for it being so late tonight... so I will read thoroughly tomorrow.

But think about this....
How was there no kill AND a successful cop investigation?

This question is really hitting me, and I'm not even sure what to take on it right now... so hopefully more on this tomorrow.

Well like I said the scum may have tried to block the doctor and kill the cop, which obviously wouldn't have worked unless they got lucky with the doctor.

Otherwise they may have just missed the night action alltogether:

If you have a role with a Night action your choices are due to me by the posted deadline. If I do not receive your choice via PM by the posted deadline you will forfeit your actions.

[totallynotmafia]

Well then there's only three other scenarios (that I can see):

1) Doctor protected SensFan, Scum for some reason tried to shoot and roleblock SensFan

2) Doctor protected someone other than SF, Scum shot at someone other than SF, just happened to hit the same person

- Both of these seem just as ridiculous

3) Scum decided not to use their night actions for strategy reasons.

- Seems plausible, although it still puts the mafia in a weakened position by not shooting anyone.

Scum missing the deadline almost seems like the most reasonable out of all the scenarios - it was Christmas afterall.

[totallynotmafia]

I think I know why SF may have suspected me but I'll wait and see what his reason is.

Assuming SF is telling the truth, scum either missing the night actions or deciding not to use them seems the most likely to me, the other scenarios seem a bit stupid.

If SF is scum it would make more sense to shoot someone else and claim he was roleblocked, but then again he could have missed the deadline. I

@Nacho: would you agree that even with the chance of SF being scum, it is not really a very smart move to lynch him now considering there's just as much evidence to show that he is the cop?

[totallynotmafia]

Okay

@For TNM,

Well then there's only three other scenarios (that I can see):

1) Doctor protected SensFan, Scum for some reason tried to shoot and roleblock SensFan

2) Doctor protected someone other than SF, Scum shot at someone other than SF, just happened to hit the same person

- Both of these seem just as ridiculous

3) Scum decided not to use their night actions for strategy reasons.

- Seems plausible, although it still puts the mafia in a weakened position by not shooting anyone.

Scum missing the deadline almost seems like the most reasonable out of all the scenarios - it was Christmas afterall.

but you can't completely forget about the first two 'ridiculous' cases. IMO, the 3rd case comes out to be more rediculous than the second.

If you were a mafia for this game, give me one good strategic reason why you would not use any nightroles.

I'll have to have a think about it, but in the meantime could you tell me what you yourself can gather from all of last night's actions and what you think may have happened, and if it will affect your vote at all (or if possible who you are leaning towards as scum)?

[totallynotmafia]

Well, I'm not voting SensFan today, Deer isn't voting SensFan today, and I'm pretty sure SensFan isn't voting SensFan today, so if my maths is right I'm pretty sure he's safe. There's the possibility that he's scum but it just doesn't make any sense to lynch him at this point, especially because it's all just speculation based on a massive bus. I'm probably the one who's gonna get shot so I'm willing to take the risk. I will need much more solid evidence in order to lynch him today. Speaking of which...

Just popping in here, but I must say, any Cop that wastes an investigation on someone he has a scumread on isn't a very good Cop. I investigated the person I had the least clear read on, which is by far the best play.

Hang on, but you investigated Ellie, a prime suspect of yours on night one. Care to explain that?

Hmm...maybe there's more to the case on SF than I thought...


Still, I think it's better to take the risk and lynch someone else. When jee asked me what possible strategy there could be for scum to not use their night actions, it got me thinking, and I came up with one possible strategy and I was almost going to post it but I thought a better idea would be to hear from jee first. I was reading another newbie game the other day, where the town almost lost because they lynched the cop (after he had claimed) near the end of the game. He came up with an innocent on somebody, then everybody was like "wait a minute, how could you have come up with a result on somebody, the mafia would have definately roleblocked you, you must be scum!" so they lynched him. Turns out that in that mod's game rules when there was only one scum left they had to choose between the NK and the RB actions, so the scum chose NK, and got the freebie of the added confusion afterwards. So it may be possible that scum chose not to RB SF to turn the tables on him, and if we have a look back...

Only mafia (and the doctor) know if there is a doctor right now. If there is a doctor, there is a Mafia Roleblocker as well. Mafia Roleblockers can kill and roleblock on the same night.

So, answer me this: What kind of Mafia would NOT roleblock the claimed cop, and still try to kill him?

As for the roleblock, it doesn't make sense how SensFan didn't get roleblocked. Which is why my top suspect is turning into SensFan. I believe he may have either 1. He's mafia and didn't think about it thouroghly and slipped. or 2. Mafia purposely didn't roleblock to confuse us, which doesn't make sense.

That's why I gave jee the opportunity to answer first before I posted my theory, it relied on the scum accusing SF afterwards. Nachomamma is steadily climbing the ranks of suspicion, but at the moment I'm not sure if it's just because he has an aggressive playstyle.

Considering jee just waggoned again I think that's where my vote will stay. He's on the top of my scum list and even if he's not scum, he may be dangerous to have in the LyLo situation given his eagerness to jump on a vote.

[totallynotmafia]

Who did you protect night one?

ps I don't get how protecting nachomamma clears him, there's still the possibility of no scum night actions submitted

[totallynotmafia]

Still doesn't explain the lack of roleblock, though. If there is a doctor/cop, then there is a roleblocker around, and if there was a NK attempt, there also would have been a roleblocking attempt.

Here are the scenarios/setups we face right now:

1. 1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 1 Sane Cop, 1 Sane Doctor, 5 Townies

Both Sens and jee are telling the truth. If that's the case, then I think mafia must have missed the deadline - they wouldn't have tried to NK someone else, and not roleblock Sens.

2. 2 Mafia Goons, 1 Sane Cop, 6 Townies

Sens is telling the truth, jee is mafia. This is a possibility, too, but still doesn't explain the lack of nightkill. If this happened, jee may have no-killed as mafia to then claim doctor and fake a doctor save. Or, yet again, he may have simply missed the deadline.

3. 2 Mafia Goons, 1 Sane Doctor, 6 Townies

Jee is telling the truth, Sens is lying. However, I'm not sure that Sens would be willing to pull off such a massive bus, especially in a newbie game where his mafia partner is playing his first game ever. This does explain the no-kill and Sens not getting blocked, though.

Take that for what you will. In my mind, jee is not clear yet - he's been more scummy than Sens has. We'll see, though. This game just got a lot more interesting.

I wasn't going to suggest it just yet but now that you've said it I was beginning to think along the lines of number 2. I've gone back and everything jee has said after the previous night backs up his claim, which threw me for a bit of a loop. However, I think it's possible he may have planned this from before the previous night, knowing that he may need an alibi and he would know if there were two goons that he could get away with claiming doc as there wouldn't be one in the game with Sens as cop. In order to solidify the claim he then may have not submitted his NK in order to make it look like he protected nachomamma. It's a pretty big risk to not kill the cop, but with a fair amount of suspicion on him it may be one jee was willing to take. This also shows why Ellie may have claimed cop as with two mafia goons there was a chance that there wouldn't be a cop in the game and so there may have been no CC.

I think there's a good chance jee has planned this whole doc claim, so my vote is staying with him for the moment.

I'm willing to rule out number three for the moment too. Looking at that last post of SensFan:

Just popping in here, but I must say, any Cop that wastes an investigation on someone he has a scumread on isn't a very good Cop. I investigated the person I had the least clear read on, which is by far the best play.

Also, if I bussed a partner as hard as some of you are accusing me of bussing Elli, there's no doubt in my mind VRK (who is modding this game, so of course sees it) would absolutely have banned me from ICing again. The IC is here to help teach other players about a game of Mafia; and to completely make sure your NewbPartner is lynched would be a massive problem. My primary goal isn't to win, of course. My goal is to help teach Mafia.

I really don't think that ICs are allowed to defend their actions based on the fact that they're IC, so I think he's telling the truth. I would still like SensFan to answer my question on him investigating Ellie night 1 though.

Number 1 is still a definate possibility so...

@Nachomamma: If SensFan and jee are both telling the truth, that puts you at the top of my scum list. What do you think of jee's claim?

Also...@Mr Finch: Haven't heard from you in a while, what do you make of all of this and who are you leaning towards as scum?

[totallynotmafia]

Ok, so lynching an uncounterclaimed doc is a big no-no but lynching an uncounterclaimed cop is totally fine?


@Mr Finch: No worries.


@jee:yeah I figured that was why you claimed now, which is either a good idea as the doc or a good play as scum. Right now for me it's 50/50.

[totallynotmafia]

I'm just worried about lynching Nachomamma, him flipping town and then we're in the exact same position tomorrow. It's a gamble with jee, but if he is doctor then that should at least help point us in the direction of who is really scum. I dunno, maybe it's a really bad move but nobody else has done anything really scummy. Like you said Deer, someone is going to have to convince me of someone elses scumminess in order for me to change my vote.

[totallynotmafia]

Yeah, and the fact that I'm cleared as town shows that the cop's role is pretty important too.

@Nachomamma: Aside from SensFan, who do you see as potential scum?

@jee: Is this your first game as doctor? What do you think the best strategy for the doctor is (and not just the strategy for night, strategy throughout the day as well)?

@Deer: Do you think Ellie played well or poorly as scum?

@SensFan: Still my question from before.

[totallynotmafia]

Ok, thanks for your answers guys.

Now, here's why I think we should lynch jee:

Before I start though, I would like to make two things clear:

Firstly, I am fully aware that I am proposing the lynch of a possible doc. In fact, for me it's about 50/50 as to whether jee is telling the truth or not and this a is a bit of a gamble. However, I believe that if we lynch jee and he turns out to be doc it wont be that bad of a situation and may actually prove to be helpful. Anyway, I'll get to that later, just please hear me out.

Secondly, this is all assuming that SensFan is telling the truth. Like I said before, SensFan has defended his actions a few times now based on the fact that he's IC, so if he was scum I really don't think that he's allowed to do this. If I'm wrong about this then the biggest thing I will have learnt from this game is not to trust the IC.

Ok now on with the case:

1) This is going to be based on fact. What are the only true facts we know in this game? The allignments of those that are dead, and the one that tells us the most I think is Ellie. I've read back over this game a couple of times now, and from reading other games, the relationship between Ellie and jee seems to indicate the most scumminess. There's just the right amount of distancing, but as I've seen in so many other games, it's always shallow accusations on the other person, with each never leaving their suspicion on the other for too long or pointing out actual scum-tells in the other person. Between Ellie and jee it all just seems like insurance in order to cover their arses if the other one gets lynched.

Then of course, as I've seen scum-buddies do in many other games, there's the move to protect. Ellie did this on day 2 just after I had joined. Right after I changed my vote from Deer to jee, Ellie attacked me for all the things RPG did, knowing fully well I couldn't properly defend them. Now jee was a suspicion of Ellie's all along, why not take the easier, more consistent route and agree with me in voting for jee? This is one thing that stuck in my mind ever since it happened and has made me sure that jee is scum. It's why I thought Ellie's cop claim might be true, because he cleared jee as innocent and so I thought this was a way of defending someone he thought was town. As soon as Ellie was confirmed Scum in my mind it went straight back from a move to protect an innocent into a move to protect fellow scum.

The act of clearing jee in Ellie's cop claim is a bold move if jee is scum, but this was prior to SF's claim, and with the goon-goon setup there was the chance of there being a doc instead of the cop, and so they might have been able to get away with it. Now, speaking of the doc...

2) The doctor claim could have easily been planned. With the goon-goon setup jee would have known that after SF claimed, there is no doc, and so a cop claim is relatively safe and a good move because there was a lot of suspicion on himself. Yesterday I read jee's other game on this site, where he was mafia, and in that game he also made a doc claim, which he said afterwards was planned from the night before. So I think jee decided not to kill anoyone last night in order to solidify his cop claim (which he planned to reveal before L-1 to make it seem more genuine- but surely a true doc would avoid having to claim until L-1 so that he isn't revealed, and thus helping the town). This also explains the lack of the roleblock on SF, because there is no roleblocker.

At first after reading back through the thread I thought that his claim may be true, as it seems he was dropping hints that he knew what happened last night because he was doctor, but of course this could have all been planned as well. I also even thought that a lot of his scummy behavior day 1 may have been because he was doc, and he was putting random votes and pressure on people in order to try and find who best to protect. That's why I asked that question, expecting that if jee was actually the doc to get an answer explaining some of the aforementioned scummy behaviour. Instead, this was the answer:

For the day, stay out of trouble. Don't lurk though. For night, its up to the doctor. I think protecting the most innocent is a good idea, because its the person the mafia most want to get rid of. If there is a cop, its common to protect him. Which is why I chose to protect someone else. Thinking mafia wouldn't expect it. And seeing as you thought that idea was 'stupid', you didn't expect it either.

I'm pretty sure this is the generic strategy for the doctor, and it doesn't match his day 1 actions at all.

3) I could be totally wrong about both 1) and 2). However, I haven't seen a decent case on anyone else being scum. Now, let's say we lynch Nacho, and he flips town. I'm almost 100% sure that the scum will leave me and jee alive so that I can go after him again tomorrow. And we'll be in this exact same position, with someone we think has acted really scummy but may be a possible doc, but there's no way to know for sure. If we lynch jee and he does flip doc, I think this actually benefits the town as it helps us get the suspicion off of him and onto the people who have been under the radar. I really think the lynch of jee will benefit the town either way.

I will also be posting cases on everybody with the assumption jee is doc before the deadline because I think I'll probably be the one to get NKed if jee is doc.

Also, one other tidbit. When I was reading jee's other game on this site, he accused someone of fencesitting, and he spelt it right: fencesitting. In this game, when he accused someone, he spelt it fensesitting, a few times. I don't know if there is anything to this, perhaps jee was trying to dumb himself down in order to not appear as a threat, it's just something interesting I came across that I found funny.

[totallynotmafia]

The doctor has the ability to give us another day. Please explain how lynching him is helpful.

Well if jee is really the doc then he is either going to be shot or roleblocked anyway. I'm saying that if we mislynch somebody else we will be in the exact same postion tomorrow. If we mislynch jee and he is doc, then we remove all the scum suspicion that many of us have on him and can get on with the scum-hunt on the remaining players. I'm looking at the overall picture here.

Read the article "Being a good IC". The first thing on the list states not to be "rude, unhelpful, and/or inattentive". SensFan has not been attentive. The third thing on the list states, extremely clearly: "Don't lurk". Sens has been lurking almost this entire game. This game is obviously not his best as an IC; using IC status to defend yourself is wrong and unethical because it gives you an unfair advantage. If this is the only thing stopping you from seeing SensFan as suspicious, then I seriously suggest you take a look at him again.

If I and him are still alive tomorrow I'm willing to put suspicion back on SF, but for the moment I'm not willing to vote for someone I think is cop (who I picked up on what I thought were cop hints from btw) based on a massive bus, regardless of whether he is IC or not. I admit I thought the exact same thing as you, but it's too much of a long shot to justify lynching SF now.

1) Try reading Elli's behavior towards SensFan again. Elli, who I have played in a few games with, is aggressive, whether town or scum. He would not allow an attack with a single scumtell to pass unless it was bussing. He would refute the case with everything he had.

Why wouldn't Ellie want to bus right on back? That would seem to be the smartest move if being bussed by your fellow scum, what advantage is there in not being aggressive in that case? It seems like scum would be more likely to hold off making it into an issue if it was town accusing them.

2) That would be the stupidest scum move in the world. If there was no roleblocker and SensFan claimed cop, then why in God's name would you leave someone who can end the game for you alive? Why not kill the cop, and then say you protected someone?

Desperate times call for desperate measures.

What about my case on SensFan?

I'll re-read it, but I'm pretty sure I've already made myself clear on where I stand with regards to SF.

His meta in THAT game is inconsistent with his meta in this one. In his old game, he played extremely careful (i.e. checking the Wiki to make cases on other people). Now, he seems to play by instinct which is what most new town do.

Well I would expect him to play differently in this game from that one as scum too, seeing as he was lynched day 2 in that one. Perhaps time for a new strategy?

[totallynotmafia]

okay, to be totally clear I'm going to sum it up in three concise points:

1) I am voting for jee because imho he has acted the scummiest and has the biggest connection with the other scum, Ellie.

2) If jee flips doc then all that suspicion that many of us had on him is wiped clear. We are then free to look with fresh eyes at people such as Deer and Mr Finch (or his replacement) who have perhaps been flying under the radar, and nacho whos predecessors made like 4 posts between them, and it will make a stronger case for SensFan.

3) I am not voting for Sens today.

[totallynotmafia]

Well if jee is really the doc then he is either going to be shot or roleblocked anyway. I'm saying that if we mislynch somebody else we will be in the exact same postion tomorrow. If we mislynch jee and he is doc, then we remove all the scum suspicion that many of us have on him and can get on with the scum-hunt on the remaining players. I'm looking at the overall picture here.

If he's shot, scum takes care of our suspicions for us.

If he's roleblocked, Sens won't be.

Yeah, but Sens will be shot.

Okay, let's say for argument's sake Deer is scum. He will be having a field day right now knowing that if he leaves me and jee together after tonight I will go after jee, and if he leaves you and Sens together you will go after Sens. I am trying to save us from being in a crappy position in LyLo, the only way we can find out for sure if these claims are true or not is to lynch them now, and I am not lynching SensFan. Hence, jee has to go, if not for his scummy behaviour throughout the game, then for the benefit of the town in LyLo.

[totallynotmafia]

Because I believe SensFan's claim over jee's, and the only situation which will lead me to believe otherwise is when jee is dead and VRK tells he is the doc.

[totallynotmafia]

So we waste an opportunity to lynch potential scum just so we can speculate on another night kill? I think a no lynch is the

worst

idea.

Nacho, if the scum is you, Mr Finch or Deer, then the night kill will be tailored so that it looks like either SF or jee are scum.

I don't know how else to explain it...I am voting for who I think is scum.

If you don't lynch who you think is the scum each day then I think that is just the worst play as town.

This is my argument:

We need to find out NOW if someone multiple people think is scum (jee) is really scum or not. Otherwise, we're just gonna lynch him in LyLo, and if he really is the doc,

we lose

. If jee is scum, we win now, if jee is doc, I get NKed, and we remove that potential game-losing situation from LyLo.

[totallynotmafia]

No that's ok, I've thought about it and agree that no lynch is the best action anyway, considering we have SensFan. I was only worried because I'm sick of speculating over night kills, but I forgot about the possibility of Sens investigating someone.

But only if the following happens:

SensFan investigates jee

jee protects SensFan

If SensFan gets an innocent on jee, or is roleblocked, then we know jee is the doc.

If SensFan is shot then I am voting for jee tomorrow.

We should hold off on the no lynch until we know for sure that Sens is here though, maybe someone should unvote just in case. The worst thing would be for him to miss the night action.

[totallynotmafia]

Hmm...thinking about it again it may just put us back in the same situation again but I guess it can't hurt.

If jee protects SensFan and SensFan investigates jee, here's what I see happening:

If jee is scum then it's a no-brainer he will kill SensFan.

If Deer, Nachomamma, or Mr Finch's replacement is scum then they will probably roleblock jee, and shoot SensFan (this is to make it seem as if jee is scum, they may however do it the other way round to make it seem as if SensFan is scum).

If SensFan is scum then he'll be forced to either clear jee or say he was roleblocked, either of which clears jee. Either jee or myself will probably be shot.

[totallynotmafia]

Exactly, I think we're only gonna delay the inevitable. Besides, maybe there's an advantage to being in MyLo over LyLo anyway, it means the scum can't do a quick hammer with 3 townies and 1 scum.

Oh well, I guess it's up to Sens and Finch's replacemnet to decide...

[totallynotmafia]

Well, in this instance it is.

Like I said to Ellie, I'm not prepared just to throw out all my suspicion because you claim to be doc, even Ellie said that would be bad play as town.

And the unCC'd really doesn't mean anything...if you are scum then with SF already claiming cop you know if there is a doctor or not.

[totallynotmafia]

By "no case" do you mean that my case is poor or that I haven't actually presented anything? Because I'm pretty sure I've been the most thorough with my case, unlike you, who voted Mr. Finch and then forgot why you voted him. I can go back and quote all my points if you'd like, but I'm pretty sure nothing is gonna change your mind.

You don't want to lynch a potential doc, I get it. The question is: is this a genuine play to protect the doc and help the town win, or is it a scummy move so that when jee flips doc you can go "I told you so!" and not be accountable for the lynch?

Basically by no-lynching you want to put the power back into the hands of the scum and then speculate over something that is completely in their control afterwards.

I want to keep the power in our hands and lynch who I think is the scum: jee.

[totallynotmafia]

@jee, I consider a lot of what Nachomamma has said over the last few pages to be pretty scummy, particularly when I accuse him of something scummy he says that he thinks I'm confused, talking down to me in order to try and diminish my arguments. What do you think of a possible Nachomamma lynch today?

I'll get to you case on finch tomorrow night hopefully when I have more time to post...

[totallynotmafia]

Hi Zorblag and Pulindar, welcome to the game, I look forward to your fresh opinions as a few of us have been tunnelling a fair bit recently, myself included.

My question for jee was just a test to see if he would bandwagon again, even after pretty much clearing Nacho as town, which would have been the final nail in the coffin so I'm happy to see that he didn't do that and in fact his answer is pretty much the same reason that I'm leaning towards Nacho being town. Nacho is online pretty much every day so I doubt he would have missed the night actions (although this thinking could be a fallacy) and it would be too much of a risk for him not to block SensFan especially after SF's post directed towards him just before the lynch on Ellie.

So yeah, I'm happy with the no lynch...at least it might remove some misplaced suspicion. The only thing that was stopping me no lynching right away was that I disagree with Zorblag in one sense because he or Pulindar could be shot without us even getting their opinions on who is scum but oh well it's too late now, at least this game will get moving again I suppose.

[totallynotmafia]

Good luck guys! Sorry jee, probably for the best I got shot then! lol

[totallynotmafia]

Moral of this story: Never trust the IC.

This is the bit I had the problem with:

Also, if I bussed a partner as hard as some of you are accusing me of bussing Elli, there's no doubt in my mind VRK (who is modding this game, so of course sees it) would absolutely have banned me from ICing again. The IC is here to help teach other players about a game of Mafia; and to completely make sure your NewbPartner is lynched would be a massive problem. My primary goal isn't to win, of course. My goal is to help teach Mafia.

That's really abusing the role of IC imho, and was the main thing that made me think SF wasn't scum.

Anyway well done scum, and well done pulindar and nacho for guessing right.

So not only was I trying to lynch the doctor but I set up a scum as the cop...you're welcome scum!