Newbie 1022 - Game Over

[AurorusVox]

Hi, I'm Vox, one of the (many) SEs in this game. This means that we've all had a bit of experience playing on the site.

On that note, I'd like to ask everyone; what level of experience have you had with mafia before?
(I see that Kingcheese has already answered - no need to answer twice ^^)

---

Vote: drmyshottyizsik

One night at a gentleman's club just isn't enough...

[AurorusVox]

@Leech

A policy lynch I agree with is "Lynch all liars" because townies have no reason to lie.

VI (Village Idiot) behaviour is something that I have, as yet, not really been able to distinguish from out-of-control scum behaviour. I think it's certainly

easier

to policy lynch people for being anti-town, and there are benefits:
(a.1.) Anti-town by definition harms town in a number of different ways
(b.1.) Arguing over anti-town behaviour can distract town from real scumhunting, and so getting rid of it can be a real help
(c.1.) Lynching a VI and analysing their wagon can be pretty helpful in nailing scum

But I don't think it's

always

the best course of action to follow from a "policy lynch" standpoint since:
(a.2.) If the anti-town behaviour comes from a townie, policy lynching gives scum an easy vote to ride on
(b.2.) If there are multiple anti-town players, all of whom are town, you can rinse through mislynches very quickly
(c.2.) Sometimes it's possible to read legitimate VI reasons behind anti-town behaviour (this brings out bucketloads of WIFOM, which is where my difficulty in distinguishing between scum and VI arises)

I have played with Shotty once before, and he was sometimes anti-town, and occasionally pro-town (although, in that game, I was scum, and so I knew that he

was

a VI). I think we ought to give him a chance in this game to see how he plays before deciding whether to policy lynch him from the get-go. If he becomes harmful for town, then I'd definitely get on board with his lynch - but I'd vote for anyone who I think is out to harm the town. Taking play on a case-by-case basis forces people to submit reasons for their votes (beyond "Policy") which helps with (c.1.) immensely.

---

@Kingcheese

You shouldn't lynch someone if you're "certain" they are town (I understand "certain" as having factual evidence, from a cop report, for example), and I don't think you should really vote for someone if you're "pretty sure" that they're town (unless their flip has some benefits beyond getting them out of the game; if you need me to expand on that then I will, but it probably isn't pertinent right now). But the fact of the matter is that if they're acting "anti-town or idiotic," it's very unlikely that you'll ever be "pretty sure" that they're town.

[AurorusVox]

Shotty is a liability for whatever side he plays on. He prides himself on being a VI, he's self-hammered as town in LyLo situation, he's outed his partner as scum, and he's probably in about 15 games at the moment as well. He is easily the worst player I've ever seen on this site. That's not because he's just "bad" it's because he doesn't care enough to try, and plays against his win condition in every single game.

If the person is acting anti town or idiotic I would consider a lynch even if I am certain they are town.

As I said, I've policy lynched shotty before, for acting in that manner. The fact that he's known to self hammer in LyLo as town, shows that we really lose nothing in a Shotty lynch at any point of the game.

I didn't realise he was that bad. So is your vote a policy lynch against Shotty in particular, rather than a policy lynch against VIs in general?

[AurorusVox]

That is only true in newbie games, just so you know. There are setups where it makes perfect sense for townies to lie. In fact, one of the most effective gambits in this game is based on a lie. There are situations that call for it, so I'd restrict that specifically to newbie games.

I've not seen that gambit before - nor have I played a game with a straight tracker in it on this site :p I'd also argue that in the scenario laid out in that gambit, the "cop" isn't totally lying, because he does have a guilty, and is pushing that but with a different report. Not to mention that fakeclaiming is a grey area for "lynch all liars" (PGOs claiming investigative PRs, I'd expect).

Leaving fakeclaiming to one side for the moment, I think that lies usually tend to come from scum in the form of hypocrisy or inconsistencies. That's predominantly how I use LaL.

[AurorusVox]

Let's get these wagons going.

"Be wary of your votes" but "get these wagons going." Shotty is already at L-2 now, are you hoping to pile other votes onto your Leech wagon? If its only a RV, why don't you join the Chief wagon started by Kingcheese?

[AurorusVox]

^I've read over the thread again more carefully, and realised that your "wagons" post came before Avish and KC voted, which kinda makes my point moot. I was in a rush this morning and thought your post was directly before Leech's, sorry if this has caused any confusion ><"

[AurorusVox]

@TheLonging

Did you know that Avish's vote didn't count, i.e. did you know you weren't putting him at L-1? Or should we treat your vote as a L-1 vote for all intents and purposes?

@Kingcheese

If any of us unvoted now, we would disrupt getting Shotty to claim/react to the pressure. I initially RVS'd Shotty simply for modding a game I was in. Now, though, I'm happy to maintain my vote (hence it is no longer random) since it will be much more productive to see what he says/how he reacts than to put the brakes on the wagon and lose that pressure and information.

I am pretty sure that Chief won't vote for Shotty since he said that he wants to see Shotty turn up before doing anything. Eggy has also said that he doesn't feel Shotty deserves a vote just yet, and so I expect that he won't vote for him either. We can hope that Shotty won't self-hammer. You and Vas are not on the Shotty wagon and seem to have no interest in getting on it just yet. I believe that we can safely leave Shotty at L-1 until he blesses us with his presence and reacts to the wagon. Just because he is being voted does not mean he will get lynched.

@Avish

He should have turned up by now, but if you're going to accuse Shotty of taking too long to post, why did you not accuse TheLonging for the same thing? TheLonging has only posted today, which is over five days into the game.

Regarding activity levels and "not checkinga game";

Activity/Prods/Replacements

1. You should aim for one post every 48 hours, minimum, to keep the game moving.
   
2. Prods of missing players will be issued upon request or after 3 real-life days of no activity.
   
3. A prodded player has 48 hours to respond to the prod, after which time a replacement search will begin. The prodded player may re-enter the game so long as no replacement has been found.
   
4. A player who has been prodded 3 times is subject to possible replacement without further notice (player-requested prods do not count towards this total).
   
5. If you anticipate being unavailable for more than a 48-hour period please PM the Mod so that you don’t get replaced!

@Mod: Can we get a prod of Shotty please?

Already done.

~Vel

[AurorusVox]

That's fine, I wasn't taking issue with you not posting until now; I was taking issue with Avish

not

taking issue with it. On that note: would you say that Avish's concern with Shotty's absence is weak, considering the possibility that Shotty also has IRL priorities?

And, what about my question regarding the L-1 vote?

[AurorusVox]

- But my point is that the distinction between them isn't that big. You seem concerned that Shotty hasn't posted; TheLonging had only posted 6ish hours before you voiced that concern. It piqued my interest because it could be considered an inconsistency.

- Of course, we can't know if Shotty has IRL issues until he posts, but if he hasn't, then it's strange that he'd not have posted yet. We'll see if he comes to the call of the prod.

- No, what I'm asking is: whether we are to treat TheLonging's vote as the L-1 in terms of wagon analysis. If he knew that your vote wouldn't count, we should treat it as L-2 and treat yours as L-1. If he didn't know, it would be the opposite.

- And I'd say your initial (unsuccessful) pressure vote was a valid vote. It had a purpose behind it, and that makes it non-random.

[AurorusVox]

And I claim townie plain and simple, also do not lynch me yet!
We are two pages in, and lynch all townie claims is just a sad excuse for a policy lynch!

Actually, lynch all claimed townies is usually how I play in smaller games for two main reasons;

If the player is scum: townie is the easiest scum claim since it doesn't involve the dangers of claiming a PR
If the player is town: claimed townies narrow down scum's night kill choices to maximise the chance that they hit PRs (should they exist)

So regardless of your alignment, "lynch all claimed townies" is actually a better move than eventually wagoning on someone else, which has the additional risk of outing a PR if we have them.

While your point is valid I believe it is a two way street. Scum could easily piggyback onto the bandwagon and get Shotty lynched. We then come into day two on page 3 or 4 and have a terrible place to start the day from. Assuming Shotty flipped town we have one less day to work with. In my situation it matters not if the bandwagon is against a VI, just a fast day that helps the town little.

Sounds like Kingcheese

knows

Shotty is town here. I think a Shotty flip would actually give us a fair insight into other players' interactions.

[AurorusVox]

If the player is scum: townie is the easiest scum claim since it doesn't involve the dangers of claiming a PR
If the player is town: claimed townies narrow down scum's night kill choices to maximise the chance that they hit PRs (should they exist)

???? This is a BAD thing!!!

FoS: AurousVox

I don't quite understand your point. I don't think you understand mine, either :\

My

point is: if the player has claimed VT, and we DON'T lynch him, then when it comes to choosing a night kill, the scum will have a greater chance of hitting PRs, because they will have one person out of however many that they know isn't a PR. Taking "tonight" as an example, leaving Shotty alive could, in the worst case scenario, leave scum with 2/5 chance of hitting a PR. Whereas if we were to lynch shotty and he flips town, that goes down to 2/6.


NINJA: Yeah, you've definitely misunderstood me somewhere.

It would be worst for us to leave Shotty alive, i.e. try to lynch someone else because (a) it narrows PRs down for scum

and

(b) wagoning on someone else might out a PR. Please point out where the contradiction is?

[AurorusVox]

Shotty, why do you disagree with lynch all claimed townies, other than the fact that you claimed townie?

[AurorusVox]

a good reliable tell is blatant opportunism. I think that you have displayed such, with your L-1 vote to drmyshotty while saying that you aren't in agreement of voting the 'unpopular people'.

Does this mean that you think that Shotty is town, and Avish is scum-voting him? If so, what do you make of the proposal to lynch Shotty? What's

your

take on lynch all claimed townies?

[AurorusVox]

SE just means you have played 2 or more games, it is not a teaching role

Except VV is the IC which IS a teaching role. Nice way to ignore all the accusations and arguments levelled against you though

---

As well as the other points against him, I'm also getting a distinctly bad vibe from how Avish seems to like mentioning the fact that he might get NK'd. It seems almost as though he's overcompensating for the fact that he

won't

get NK'd because he knows he can only get lynched...

[AurorusVox]

I'm not sure with Shotty since he's been staying in nullsville for a while, but Avish' attack is pretty opportunistic. Do you disagree with this?

Null, eh. That doesn't help at all xD I had prepared rapid retort questions depending on if you said "town" or "scum" but you've said neither which takes the wind out of my sails.

I'm treating Avish's vote a L-2 for the purposes of the wagon analysis, btw. I like your case on his opportunism; he says "I don't like lynching unpopular people" and then votes for the unpopular person. Sounds to me like he's trying to distance himself from his vote in the event of Shotty flips town; but still gets the credit of acting with the town. This same distancing tactic can be seen when he says that he didn't understand the gravity of his vote, despite it being mentioned (well, implied) a couple of times; and he also toys around calling it random

Lynch all claimed Townies is a fine tactic and all, but I prefer to be flexible. A shotty lynch

right now

is a bit too early though. If you weren't voting for shotty right now, would you hammer/threaten to hammer him?

I wouldn't hammer him right now, but I would (now) announce my intent to hammer later. Imo, Shotty is our lynch for today, whenever that time eventually comes.

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@Leech

Do you think it was a premature claim considering that TheLonging explicitly asked him to claim in #27?

[AurorusVox]

Sounds to me like he's trying to distance himself from his vote in the event of Shotty flips town; but still gets the credit of acting with the town.

If you're looking at it from that angle, you have to ask yourself why he'd be doing that? [...] When the subject is a policy lynch, of this nature, why would scum go to that trouble when they could just say that they felt he was a better lynch regardless of his alignment?

It's a case of backing herself into a corner and having to deal with it. Oh...but your point is; "why would she back herself into a corner in the first place?" Which is a valid point. Hmm.

I'm going to reconsider my early Avish read in light of this. I mean, if her

not

agreeing with the policy lynch but still voting for Shotty is something of a towntell (i.e. optimum scum play would dictate that she would either agree with the policy lynch and vote for Shotty, or disagree and not vote for Shotty), then how far does that weaken the case on her vote being opportunistic too? I think your point on her - overly defensive - is probably the best out of all three. I mean, there's always the fact that she might not follow optimum scum play, and could have inadvertently backed herself into a corner (or be WIFOMing), but your point significantly weakens my argument.

I

had

defended my argument, if you're interested to see where I was coming from:

Spoiler: Previous Thoughts

Avish indicated that she didn't support a policy lynch with her "voting for unpopular people comment." That implies she

doesn't

want to vote for Shotty regardless of his alignment (further proof of this is that she wanted to give an additional reason to her vote when she voted again). At the same time, she votes for Shotty anyway, which suggests she thinks he's scum. She can't use the "policy lynch regardless of alignment" reason

because

she's already said she disagrees with it. She has to match that statement or be caught out as being inconsistent. So even though it would be easier to say "policy lynch gogogo" she has to go the long way about it, which includes preparing defences for her vote later on (she's already started this). One of those defences might be retroactively pointing to the fact that she didn't support the lynch.

Do you think it was a premature claim considering that TheLonging explicitly asked him to claim in #27?

Yes, TheLonging should not have asked him to claim. A request to claim should only occur if you are about to hammer that player. It should not happen any sooner than that.

So shouldn't you be arguing that the emphasis of prematurity is on TheLonging, rather than Shotty in this case? I don't like people who are

not

on L-1 claiming; and I believe that premature VT claims more often than not come from scum. But I don't think you can hold Shotty accountable for an early claim when he was directly asked to. As for TheLonging, although I agree that it was unlikely he would get hammered, being at L-1 does leave Shotty open to someone hammering without announcing it; improbable =/= impossible. I think asking for a claim now was as good a time as any; especially considering most people are agreed that Shotty is the lynch for the day.

Before I pursue this further, I want to ask; is Shotty the sort of player who would no-doc, or lie about cop reports, if he had gotten a PR?

[AurorusVox]

If people want to policy lynch him because they believe he's harmful to the town no matter what he rolled, than that's a legitimate reason for a policy lynch.
If people want to policy lynch him just because they dislike him personally...find him annoying or whatever...than that is NOT a legitimate reason for a policy lynch in my mind.

I think that the reasons that Leech and TheLonging proposed when placing their votes made it quite clear that it's a policy lynch of the former type.

I don't know if a policy lynch that turned out to be a townie would really be good for the town. I'm concerned about the notion of a "harmful" townie, but I'm also concerned about giving the mafia a free kill. I do not know which is really worse. I've been trying to figure it out. Perhaps, the people who are actively supporting the policy lynch wagon could say something about how lynching a townie VI is better for the town.

Hmm, I believe that I addressed lynching (claimed) townies a few pages back, but I'll summarise that for you and add a little about VIs;

(a) VIs compromise the town's ability to get reads, because it's difficult to tell if they're scum or not
(b) VIs are sometimes plain anti-town (self-hammering is an example that Leech gave with regards to Shotty)
(c) Leaving claimed townies alive gives the scum a higher chance of hitting PRs with their NK
(d) Changing lynch targets after a townie claim risks outing PRs
(e) We can still get reads and wagon analysis, even from a policy lynch. Once we see the flip, we can see who voted when, why, and what that might suggest about their alignment. It's not as easy with a policy lynch, but it's not futile either.

---

Shotty; TL is already voting for you, he can't hammer...Just be patient and don't selfvote, kthx.

[AurorusVox]

Nope; if we leave you alive, it's 2/5, if we lynch you it's 2/6.

[AurorusVox]

I know that it's

supposed

to be a policy lynch of the former type. But, let's be honest, if it was a policy lynch of the latter type would you just flat out say so? I wouldn't think so.

So, are you suggesting that

either

of us are lying?

If one of Leech/TheLonging was lying about Shotty's meta, then they would both have to have been lying, since they agreed with each other about him. Had either of you considered that?

---

One last question: This is not the first time "self-hammering" has been brought up. Would someone really do that? I'm guessing so, since it is claimed that Shotty has done so in the past. Why? Why would anyone do that?

The point is that most people don't do it (as town). That's why it's an anti-town thing to do, because if you are town, then the only person you know to be town for sure is quite often yourself. Hammering yourself is playing against your own win condition. Scum self-hammering is a different matter. It's a debatable topic which you can find more about in the Mafia Discussion forum. I've also seen both town and scum self-vote (i.e. not hammer). I dislike self-voters, but experience has taught me that it's not a valid scumtell in itself :\

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I'm not used to not knowing what we have to work with. I don't like it. Not one bit.

Be very careful when you're talking about PRs. It is not a good idea to discuss them in case someone is role-fishing you. If you don't theorise about PRs you can't accidentally crumb (reveal your role).

It seems to me that I am the one people are most mistrustful of at this point. I realize everybody should be under suspicion, but I've garnered quite a bit of it.

Avish is definitely paranoid, and it's just a case of whether this is paranoid town or paranoid scum. She's been reasoning her stances well enough, so I'm willing to give her the benefit of the doubt. I might be a little biased here, because in my first non-newbie game, I went to L-2 in RVS and was accused of being jumpy - which was apparently a scumtell under pressure, except for the fact that I was actually town.

---

I'd love more from Chief. Any ETA on that post you promised two days ago?

[AurorusVox]

He asked you a new set.

[AurorusVox]

I've played 2 Newbie games on-site before this as an SE* (this is my third) and a fair few non-newbie games as well :p

*you become an SE after completing your second newbie game

[AurorusVox]

He gets replaced if he doesn't pick up a third prod, or if he asks to be replaced specifically.

Eggy, do you think Shotty's "defence" has been enough to derail his wagon?

[AurorusVox]

Hi Chronos.
What do you make of the Shotty wagon?

[AurorusVox]

Oh yeah I forgot to mention that I'm (slightly) V/LA til Tuesday.

LC, it'd be helpful to hear your answer on both.

[AurorusVox]

I go V/LA and when I come back Shotty is no longer the leading wagon? =_="

As I made clear earlier, I support a Shotty lynch, and frankly only a Shotty lynch at this point, because to vote elsewhere could give scum that easier chance of hitting any existing PRs. He hasn't made any effort to play in a town-like manner, so I'm finding it difficult to distinguish between Shotty-VI-Antitown behaviour and Shotty-scum behaviour, but I can't see him changing my mind on wanting to lynch him.

---

The counter-wagon on Avish feels a bit off. I have a niggling feeling about two of the three votes on there at the moment (VV's and LC's - Leech's feels like an honest vote). That said, I'm see-sawing on Avish being paranoid townie or paranoid scum. She was paranoid enough to pre-emptively defend herself, but she wasn't paranoid when I said I sympathised with her (i.e. she didn't ask for a link to the appropriate game). Similarly, she is paranoid enough to ask how many newbie games we'd played, but not paranoid enough to ask for links to these games. I think she's an interesting counter, but I'm unsettled by it atm.

As for the votes on there, Leech, I'm surprised you'd jump ship on a Shotty wagon. Were you suggesting earlier that you were never really fully committed to a Shotty lynch from the outset (#162)? You didn't really try to dissuade people from hammering. Unless you were hoping that the hypothetical-unsuspecting-newb-scum would hammer and then you'd gain information from it? And now that hasn't happened, you're willing to forgo the PL? This (and your #162) assumes that you're pretty certain Shotty is town. Would you go as far as to say that? What do you make of the lynch-all-claimed-VTs argument?

Vas, you say you think LC's post in which he voted for Avish (his #163) was "terribad" -- but his vote

is

on Avish, who is your top suspect. Do you think this is a stretched attempt at finding reasons to bus a partner? Why would LC vote for Avish when there was a convenient wagon on Shotty? What do you make of LC's pressure argument? I have my own concerns with it but I'd like to hear yours first.*

*LC, I'll come around to you when VV has answered.

---

Kingcheese, I believe you've made it clear that you support a Shotty lynch. Now that he's not at L-1, where's your intent to vote gone?

[AurorusVox]

Vel: I might be stretched for time over the next couple of days. I may get on to read the thread but not be able to properly post until Friday. I'll try my best to get something in before then, but I just wanted to lay another minor V/LA notice down...

[AurorusVox]

-It's not a matter of being lousy/lazy. Asking for the links would have enabled you to quickly see what our alignments were, whether we won or not, seen if/when/how we died, and read any post-game comments about our playstyle. If you were seriously interested in how we function in newbie games, you could have followed that interest further.

-Intelligence doesn't stop you making newbie mistakes; you only really stop making them once you've learnt how to play on this particular site. Newbie =/= nooby.

-You also pretty much admitted to being paranoid:

Paranoid townie.

[AurorusVox]

Shotty, why on earth don't you just put my whole name? You've had to type it out there once already anyway =_="

On the subject: I wonder if there'll be any reasons to go with that vote, or whether it is just an RV?

[AurorusVox]

Clearly taking a shot at Avish being scum is more beneficial.

I for one bow down to our new mathematical ant overlords. Clearly, your proposed scenario trumps my concerns. I'm still worried about the better PR odds but hitting scum

obviously

is better than mislynching town, just to achieve those odds.

I don't see why that feels off, at all.

As I said, your vote feels honest and I'm having similar feelings regarding the "paranoia" and "linkgate" as you, buuut, the votes that feel off are VV's and LC's to a lesser extent. I will re-read Avish but I want to interrogate them more before I make any decisions.

Why are you so surprised that I'd "jump ship" when I said at the beginning of the game that I would if I believed someone to be scum?

In all honesty, I was blinkered by my lynch-all-claimed-VTs idea. I had thought that derailing the Shotty wagon was an optimum scenario for scum, and because I was certain the best scenario was lynching Shotty, I thought you'd have felt the same (hence my surprise, especially considering you initiated the PL). I fully understand your switch now, though. Consider my surprise resolved.

[AurorusVox]

That's exactly it. Failbussing are fail busses because it looks pretty obvious. That's the vibe I got from his #163. And I don't buy his defense that 'Of course it contradicts! I said it right there!', that's a pretty handy excuse. He's basically admitting the contradiction so that we can't call it out on him. However, a contradiction is a contradiction is a contradiction.

I'm confident enough to say that if Avish flips scum, LC should be speedlynched(maybe we can break the fastest lynch record!).

I don't think that looks like a bus. If it has terrible reasoning, I can accept that it could be scum opportunistically hopping on a mislynch wagon, but when there was the perfect counter-wagon (Shotty) it makes no sense to vote for Avish. I also wholeheartedly disagree with your desires for a speedlynch, and I dislike the premise of setting up subsequent lynches in general. I'm struggling to see the scum motivation for this particular setup though (i.e. scum would generally say "If X flips town, we should lynch Y"), so you've

just about

evaded gaining my vote for setting up lynches.

Buuuuut you've gained it for something else. You said that you were see-sawing between TL and LC being scum #2. But now you're ultra confident it's LC, so confident that you'd speedlynch him. Inconsistency much? You didn't even explain why this is.

Vote: Vasudeva

---

I can't remember what my question for LC was now (Vas took so long to reply...) I'll re-read the posts in the vicinity and see if I can pick it back up when I get a chance.

[AurorusVox]

Eggy, who are you "choosing" between?

Shotty, why would you hammer Avish? Do you think she's scum (I can't believe I have to actually ask you that), and if so, why?

[AurorusVox]

Eggy basically has the balance of power, since one more vote on Avish would secure his lynch (Shotty's intent to hammer essentially puts Avish at L-1), whilst a vote on Shotty would probably garner enough support to see him swing (I know Kingcheese has explicitly expressed interest, and I can still get on board with a Shotty lynch). So with that in mind:

Eggy

, please can you explain why you find those people scummy? I don't like non-random votes with a lack of explanation, and in this situation I like it even less considering that it's a very weighty decision.

[AurorusVox]

Regarding my comment about Eggy, I understand know that I should not have typed that, but instead typed something such as: Is it considered Pro or Anti Town to discuss PR Roles in order to justify ones play thus far?

Vas answered this question in a later post picking up on what I was hinting. I should have elaborated more in that first post #180. Clearly my mistake.

HOOOOL-DUP

Didn't a number of us

already

explicitly warn Avish away from discussing PRs before you made this post? Are you claiming ignorance to those posts?

[AurorusVox]

@KC

Be very careful when you're talking about PRs. It is not a good idea to discuss them in case someone is role-fishing you. If you don't theorise about PRs you can't accidentally crumb (reveal your role).

This obviously goes both ways, since talking about PRs can be construed as role-fishing or being role-fished. I'm fairly sure someone else mentioned it too, but I can't find it right now. If anyone remembers warning against it, please jump in to provide the quote.

[AurorusVox]

=_=" deadline organisation post...

Would anyone consider joining me on this delicious

Vas wagon

, or should I look to someone else? My main point against him is his inconsistency in his

confidence

of LordChronos being scum #2 (which incidentally makes no sense with Avish scum #1 imo), where he goes from "umm, ahh" on LC to "I would speedlynch him" without explaining the shift.

I'm still down for a

Shotty lynch

. If I can't get a VV lynch then I definitely want to get Shotty out of here. His play has been scummy and VIish and I can't see it getting any better - his willingness to hammer Avish for fun takes the biscuit - and there's also the argument of night-kill PR odds which is still clanging around in the back of my mind.

A byproduct of my VV suspicion is that I'm a not all that comfortable with an

Avish lynch

, but she's not a

terrible

candidate for the noose today. Some pre-emptive defensiveness, tilted paranoia, and not following through with her lines of enquiry. If it was between an Avish lynch and a no lynch, I would vote for Avish.

Out of nowhere last minute lynch candidate moment!

I could also get on board with an

Eggy lynch

if absolutely necessary, since he has done pretty much naff all for the whole day (could go as far as to accuse him of active lurking), has resisted answering questions, and seems to be fencesitting to see which wagon he can get away with voting on. All in all it looks like he's made an effort to be read as null :\ But a Shotty lynch is infinitely superior to an Eggy lynch, and if you're going to go for Eggy you may as well go for Shotty instead. Kay? Kay.

I currently do not want to lynch: Leech, TheLonging, KingCheese, LordChronos, AurorusVox.

[AurorusVox]

Anyone who says that the Shotty lynch is anything other than a PL is full of it. There is absolutely nothing indicative of his alignment in his posts.

His hammer desire on Avish, despite offering ZERO reasoning, and despite Avish being L-2 at the time? His perpetual avoidance of questions to remain a null-tell to those who

try

to scumhunt him? His perpetual avoidance of offering reasoned voting to erase his voting trail?

If these are all considered anti-town rather than scummy, then I'll downgrade Shotty to null. They seem pretty scummy to me, but then again, I've not had too much experience with VIs as town so I'm willing to listen to experience.

---

there's also the argument of night-kill PR odds which is still clanging around in the back of my mind.

There might not even be PR's in this game. You guys need to stop using that as a reason to lynch. While it's true you shouldn't try to narrow down potential PR's, using that as an actual reason to lynch someone is absurd.

I understand that it's not reason enough on its own, but no one is using that as the only reason. The Shotty wagon is a mix of things that wouldn't warrant lynching in and of themselves, but when all combined, add up to make him a decent lynch candidate: PL, in-game anti-town behaviour, (potentially scummyVI elements?), Lynch all VTs.

OTOH, your arguments for the

actual

scumtells on Avish are there. So I can see why you think she's a better lynch today. Like I said, she's not a bad one for the noose. I think VV's bizarre LC inconsistencies are weighing in my decision probably more than they ought to be. I'll ISO her. Watch this space.

---

It looks like the VV ship has sailed. Actually, it's probably too late in the day for me to even agree with his lynch myself.

Unvote

[AurorusVox]

Shotty do you think Avish is scum or are you just being mischievous?

[AurorusVox]

*she

Okay, would you care to share your reasons?

[AurorusVox]

KC, the problem with that line of reasoning is that you're assuming shotty would be a mislynch (i.e. town) in which case you're better off NOT lynching him today.

Anyway I dropped by to say that I have a shit-tonne of reading to do so I might not get my re-read of Avish in til close up to the deadline. Rest assured it will be incoming, just not pronto...

[AurorusVox]

The ISO that brings with it a thousand punishing fists of fury!

Here's my Avish ISO. It's looking academic anyway since I don't think we'd get enough votes on any other lynch candidate at this point (i.e. its Avish or NL). But I won't spoil the ending. Enjoy!

---

ISO #0:
States her Shotty vote is a pressure vote

ISO #1:
Then mentions the fact that the other votes on Shotty are for a policy lynch, and adds her own reason - the fact that Shotty hasn't turned up to post yet. As I noted at the time, TL had

only just

turned up. Looked like selective vision.

#ISO 3:
Uses the fact that TL had posted to defend against accusations of selectively picking on Shotty's lurking. Bare this in mind for ISO #13.

ISO #4:
The absence of Shotty didn't have anything to do with the vote. Okay...but that was like, the main reason for the vote, or so it seemed earlier.

ISO #6:
Looks like a bit of a mess. Says that voting unpopular players is the norm on NarutoFan but would be against doing that here. I recall that people had made it clear why they wanted to PL Shotty, so the whole dance around it here looks suspect. Not to mention, if she's not sure, why is she joining the wagon? I know this was dealt with earlier, but reading the posts one after another like this really brings out the inconsistencies :\

ISO #10:
This is where she finds VV's scumtells on her suspicious. Bare this in mind for future OMGUS vote on Leech and final lack of Vas suspicion. ALSO says that she is willing to die for the greater good of town.

ISO #12:
Begins with concerns that Shotty is town and how that would make her look bad. If she thinks he's town, retract the vote...Blames Vas for making her look bad in case of a Shotty town-flip. Sounds like she is expecting it.

ISO #13:
Now says that she didn't notice TL had posted when she complained that Shotty posted. So that makes her selective picking on Shotty much worse, and contradicts her earlier defence of said selectiveness. Plays it as a slow-burn revelation as to why she did this - saying that it was because she had questions of Shotty. That's a fair point, but it sounds like it could be retroactive. Then says that "two people" wanting to PL Shotty is more suspect than just one - but surely it's the other way around? Also the PR-gate scandal; concerned with surviving/proving that she's town - which goes against ISO #10. How did I miss this the first time?!

ISO #16:
Now she says "I've been so concerned with proving my own innocence." Direct contradiction to ISO #10 again.

ISO #18:
Claims to be a paranoid townie

ISO #19:
"How many newbie games?" question

ISO #20:
#19's question is "extremely relevant," then in the very same post calls it "random"

ISO #21:
She's immune to newbie-scum tells, apparently. I don't accept that as an argument, everyone is prone to newbie-scum tells on here when they first play as scum.

ISO #22:
Dismisses cases by "chuckling," which I find upsetting T_T Then tries to call the newbie-scum tells issue a contradiction, which I'm not really buying. Then says she doesn't know why she was labelled paranoid (see ISO #18 lol)

ISO #23:
Not really sure why Vas' case seemed legit but Leech's didn't. My opinion was the other way. Also remember way back in ISO #10 where she said Vas' case was suspicious? Apparently she didn't.

ISO #24:
"You might as well just lynch me, for crying out loud" - implicit message for scumbuddy to bus her (Eggy/King)? Also now claims to not be

that

experienced after all. But I thought she was immune to newb-scum tells? Oh - also reveals that she's never played as scum. So, she's the perfect person to fall into newb-scum tell traps. Also says it's standard to defend herself, which again contradicts ISO #10. Also says that the question in #19 wasn't for this game, which is utterly bizarre. If not for this game, why ask about OUR prior experience? It's not going to help in another game. Oh and yay I'm MR. Neutral.


---

I think ISOs always make people look scummy, but in this case I think it's justified. It looks like I'd missed a number of contradictions in her posts, and I PUNISH contradictions with votes. It's also getting to the point where we put up or shut up with regards to lynching Avish, or in fact lynching at all today. I would have declared intent to hammer and hammered tomorrow, but since Shotty has moved his vote, I'll go ahead and:

Vote: Avish

(L-1)

[AurorusVox]

Well, the ISO did help to highlight some of the flagrant inconsistencies in Avish's play. Those are scummy, regardless of context :\

[AurorusVox]

TL - was your first vote for policy reasons or because you still think/thought Shotty is scum?

Hmm. I'm going to re-read LC. I'm liking Vas' bungled/inconsistent attack on him even less now...and tbh, that's probably where my vote is going, but I'm going to hold off til after I've ISO'd LC and given it a bit more thought.

---

Also, I wanted to let you guys know that I might not get on that much from tomorrow til Monday, but I'll try to get a post off once a day at least. I have an essay to hand in on Friday, and then my girlfriend is coming to stay til Sunday ^^"

[AurorusVox]

Really sorry guys I'm

V/LA til Monday

Will attempt to get read on LCdeath and respond to Vas' fishy reaction and give opinions of stated players when I can get enough time to post properly. I have like five minutes now, so I'll see how far through LC I can get...

[AurorusVox]

I wasn't. I am now. A cornucopia of responses is inbound.

[AurorusVox]

Contents

-LC ISO NK Analysis
-Leech vs TL
-KingCheese in response to Vas
-Further response to Vas
-Appendix

---

LC ISO NK Acronym Notes:

Pushes Eggy. Don't think it's enough to make Eggy want to target him on his own.
Threatens to lynch Shotty before LYLO (i.e. today). Could be at attempt to forestall a Shotty lynch?
Likes Leech: unless Leech is WIFOMing, I'm sticking by my townread
Disagrees with Vas - not as openly as me. Maybe a less obvious NK target for Vas? Vas finds him very suspicious - but this was wrapped in an Avish scumflip. Maybe a way to wriggle out of the

inconsistencies

I noticed yesterday! (more later)
TheLonging also found LC suspicious, but LC didn't seem to find TL suspicious. I think its doubtful TL on his own would choose to kill off his "second suspect" since LC didn't really have a case on TL.

---

Leech/TL shenanigans

This looks too fierce to be a fabricated distancing/bussing argument (though the DP vote is a little odd). Other than that, I think Leech is coming off far better. A lot of what he's pointing out are my cup of tea when it comes to scumtells - the backtracking/contradictions/hypocrisy elements especially. In fact, this is golden. How has no one already picked up on this epic hypocrisy?

HOWEVER, there is something with LC's death that makes me consider other suspects first.

Because there is other scum that's bigger to fry. Also I think you need to consider who would do that. I do think he's scum, not AS much scum. I just want to get the other scum.

In the SAME post:

I'm going to hold off on voting until I look more players over, but something is seriously off with how TL's playing.

"I think this guy is SCUM SCUM SCUM but I'm not voting him yet because I think there are much more important fish and I'm afraid to vote him because OH MY GOD HE MIGHT BE LYNCHED AND IT'LL LOOK BAD"

At this time, TL had unvoted Shotty because he had other suspects to find. Do as I say, not as I do? Scum.

Vote: TheLonging

---

Kingcheese

I didn't mind his early D1 play. It got screwy towards the end - discussing PRs and that horrible assumption wherein he treated Shotty as a mislynch, despite wanting to lynch him anyway. This is further consolidated by his #290 where he says the time for PLing Shotty has passed. This screams that he knows Shotty is a townie, and was never committed to the idea of ScumShotty in the first place. In fact, KC's play as regards Shotty makes me surer that Shotty is a legit townie (this is based on a KC scumflip). Oh, and now I've seen that he doesn't find Shotty scummy but scumpairs him with DP? If he's a scumpair and you honestly believe it, why would you care about PLing or not? You'd just want to lynch your scumread. He's my #3 suspect.

---

Vas' Unconvincing Argument

@AV: I found your end of D1 to be very weird. You went from agreeing to shotty's PL, to voting me to voting Avish. I studied your ISO during night. I have two specific parts of your ISO, that I just don't get the thought process off.

Before I get to answering your questions: what's up with preparing your attack during the night? Certain you weren't going to die? Your vote on Avish yesterday was pretty static - why didn't you do this studying yesterday?

The counter-wagon on Avish feels a bit off. I have a niggling feeling about two of the three votes on there at the moment (VV's and LC's - Leech's feels like an honest vote). That said, I'm see-sawing on Avish being paranoid townie or paranoid scum. She was paranoid enough to pre-emptively defend herself, but she wasn't paranoid when I said I sympathised with her (i.e. she didn't ask for a link to the appropriate game). Similarly, she is paranoid enough to ask how many newbie games we'd played, but not paranoid enough to ask for links to these games. I think she's an interesting counter, but I'm unsettled by it atm.

And to this:

I don't think that looks like a bus. If it has terrible reasoning, I can accept that it could be scum opportunistically hopping on a mislynch wagon, but when there was the perfect counter-wagon (Shotty) it makes no sense to vote for Avish. I also wholeheartedly disagree with your desires for a speedlynch, and I dislike the premise of setting up subsequent lynches in general. I'm struggling to see the scum motivation for this particular setup though (i.e. scum would generally say "If X flips town, we should lynch Y"), so you've just about evaded gaining my vote for setting up lynches.

Buuuuut you've gained it for something else. You said that you were see-sawing between TL and LC being scum #2. But now you're ultra confident it's LC, so confident that you'd speedlynch him. Inconsistency much? You didn't even explain why this is.

Vote: Vas

It does look like a bus, fo srs.

He's opening up avenues on voting Avish in case push comes to shove...at the same time indirectly defending her. That's very bus-like, really.

I like to threaten speedlynches. Especially on obvscum, obvbussers(see reply to LC below).

Where have I contradicted myself on my LC #2?

I did say that TL and LC are gunning for the scummy silver medal olympics

.

The problem is: You were all over the place in your #ISO 24, but until your vote post to Avish you barely even mentioned her(Maybe once or twice.). There were too few updates on what you thought of her. However, instead of revoting shotty to his PL by deadline, you chose to go after Avish instead.

I'd like an explanation of your thought process here please. (And also please answer the bolded in the second quote)

If you "studied" my ISO last night, did you just happen to miss the part where I eventually agreed that lynching a scum suspect had a greater benefit than lynching a claimed VT? And so I voted for you due to your inconsistencies (explained again below) - and then I shifted to Avish, yep. But if you studied my ISO (studied, implying looked at with vigour and attention) you should have seen (a) me trying to get people on your wagon, (b) me still being open to a Shotty lynch but it not having the support, and (c) me doing a FULL ISO ANALYSIS of Avish close to deadline. How can you suggest its weird and opportunistic (I think this is the claim you're making) when the reasoning is there in a neat little list with reasons attached to each post that I found scummy? I was see-sawing on her because I found you suspicious - when I looked at her without you as context, she looked a good lynch. I think that neatly sums up the dilemma that I had. And are you honestly calling it suspect that I found pretty much the only person you seriously voted for all day, to be a good lynch candidate?


The inconsistency is that you initially stated that LC and TL were competing for your #2 scummy spot. But then you said that if Avish flipped scum, you would condone speedlynching LC. You dropped TL entirely out of the equation. You went from "unsure" to "certain" without explaining why or how.

With TL's slip ups today, this throws a new light onto this inconsistency - you mention TL as your 2nd suspect (not someone you'd vote for atm), and then conveniently relegate him from your scumlist. Then you can point to your "suspicion" of TL later and say "Ohay, I'm not buddies, he was my #2 suspect!" --- without ever having to follow through on building a case against him.

---

Appendix

Things I'm considering:
-TL/VV scum team looks good. One on the mislynch and one off it. Decent mix of reasons for LC NK.
-TL/KC scum team looks feasible. Newer player following the more experienced player onto the shotty lynch. Avish wagon may have needed no scumhelp with the self hammer and Shotty's unpredictability. Not really a good reason for a LC NK here.
-VV/KC scum team also looks feasible. Would probably rely on VV telling KC in pregame to not vote for the same person as him. Slightly likelier than a TL/KC scumteam for added Vas NK reasons and because there was probably scum (Vas) on the Avish wagon.

[AurorusVox]

DP, I'd like to see a case so that we know you have one.

TL, the contradiction is between [Points 1&2] and [Point 3]. You had found someone who was scummy - yet you didn't vote them because there was "bigger scum [fish] to fry." Then you reprimand Leech for finding someone who was scummy and not voting them because there was "more important [bigger] fish." I mean, you've gone for practically the same little saying in both parts, but when it's you it's fine and excusable but when it's someone else it's suddenly a scumtell.

[AurorusVox]

Suggesting I'm scum buddies with shotty when we are the two on your case is quite a longshot you're going for...

Suggesting you're scum buddies with Shotty when he has a town read on Shotty is even more of a longshot.

Kingcheese, please explain how they can be buddies when:

Shotty

: I think hes town atm

---

What's wrong with prepping my attack for the night?

You must have been confident that you wouldn't die. Why do an ISO on someone who wall-o's (when you're a major wall skimmer) at night when there's a chance you might be dead the next day? Why not do it as the day went on rather than lazily keeping your vote in one place? If you think I've done dodgy things, you should have voiced them before you (potentially) lost the chance - what if you'd died last night? Seems like you never really found it odd but are instead trying to misrep/smear me because I'd expressed a suspicion of you.

Well, duh! LC was doing something that I initially read as a bus. TL wasn't. In D1, I read TL was more like diverting the attention from Avish back to Shotty. In my head: LC was obvbussing someone I read as scum and TL was trying to save someone I read as scum. Both actions quite scummy, but I was more confident in LC obvbussing because I've seen failbusses before and that smelled like a failbus. Avish and LC's flip say otherwise though.

Are you accusing me of being buddies with TL? Don't you need TL's flip before that? What's your read on TL currently?

But if LC and TL were scummy #2 to your Avish #1, the possibility of a Avish-TL scumteam must have been in your head. And that disappeared completely with your speedlynch LC idea. And where has this suspicion of Shotty come from? Do you still think he's scum today?

Nothing solid but I'm theorising possible connections. I won't spend too much time on it but it interested me enough to mention. And isn't it obvious that I think TL is scum as evidenced by my vote?

[AurorusVox]

I did read it last night before I went to bed but I didn't reply because it was getting late...and then I forgot about it. Thanks for reminding me.

There's a difference between someone "I found scummy" and someone "who I have found more scummy". OK but let me explain this right now. Maybe if you read between the lines, you'll get it.

Yesterday shotty was scum. Today he's a PL. There, I admit it. Pride won't ever let me live this down, but there. shotty is a policy lynch.

-You found Shotty scummy. You voted/unvoted him. You found Leech scummy. Then after a while you voted him (because he's more scummy than Shotty?)
-Leech finds you scummy. He doesn't vote you. He finds DP scummy. Then after a while he votes DP (because he finds DP more scummy than you?)

...I really don't grasp the huge difference. Unless you're saying you no longer find Shotty scummy today?

[AurorusVox]

Sorry for going AWOL. Had a really busy week ><"

RE: ObvKingScum
I think there is

at least

one scum in [TheLonging, VasudeVa, KingCheese]. Gonna read back to see if anyone responded to my points and requires striking off that list.

Shotty, who's your #2 suspect?

[AurorusVox]

KC: In your response to DP, and in your lack of response to me, you've totally failed to address how or why you think DP and Shotty are scumbuddies when you have a town read on Shotty.

---

That last sentence is true. I only said he was scum because I didn't want to swallow my pride but of course that let me bad. Yes, I admit I lied, but only because I didn't want shotty in the game, to fuel my own self-agenda and because he's a liability to town. I went overboard with it and I'm not going to do it again.

No I do not find shotty scum anymore. Only as a PL absolute last resort. He can still help us, although the only useful thing I maintain he has done is his recent Kingcheese vote (which I KIND of see, but not enough to vote or really suspect him). I do however find Leech scum. He has not dropped any MAJOR scumtells, moreso, it's the way he tries to seem genuine with all of these walls to pass off as town. It's hard to explain, but I've seen this done by scum a lot before (I can link to a previous game if you guys want), and I get this same general impression from Leech. I'll reread again tomorrow to see if I'm still confident in my vote. For now though I am comfortable in it.

Hands up if this looks like exactly what happened with KC?

D1: Shotty is scum, lynch him! Yeah! Go! Woohoo!
D2: Shotty is town, I always thought he was town! Let's talk about him non-committally!

---

I still don't get Vas' explanation. Clearly I'm the only one with an issue with it. Let me see:

-Avish is scum
-One of TL or LC is her scumbuddy for different reasons
-Avish and LC are definitely scum together
-????

The fourth stage of that hypothetical situation, is me not getting where TL went at the third stage.

[AurorusVox]

That last sentence is true.

I only said he was scum because

I didn't want to swallow my pride but of course that let me bad. Yes, I admit

I lied

, but only because I didn't want shotty in the game, to fuel my own self-agenda and because he's a liability to town.

I went overboard with it and I'm not going to do it again.

Where did I misrep? You admit to lying. You can't mean you went overboard D2 because you voted him and unvoted instantly. You had to be referring to D1. The whole thing sounds like it's referring to D1. If it's not referring to D1, then wtf? You can't have all that angst based on one post vote / unvote today?

[AurorusVox]

I "misinterpreted" because it looks silly that all that would be about one post.

What changed your mind about Shotty's alignment?

[AurorusVox]

Right.

Unvote

Vote: KingCheese

That's L-1. The people

off

the KC vote don't strike me as the sort of people to hammer willy-nilly, so

don't

claim until someone declares an intent to hammer.

I want an explanation for the "Shotty is town/scumbuddy with DP" argument. The fact that he hasn't answered it yet is badbadbad. I'm aware that Shotty and DP aren't the best of wagon-buddies. But I'm uncomfortable with KC and his avoidance of questions.

VV's explanations seem lacking too, but at least he's tried to explain. Other people not finding it suspect might mean I'm just being dense?

[AurorusVox]

??

I don't think you and DP are scumbuddies. That's KC.
I'm putting KC at L-1 because he thinks you and DP are scum buddies, despite thinking that you're town.

[AurorusVox]

Not sure. His entry into the game and his lack of reasons with his vote was disconcerting. Gotta pay closer attention to his later-posted reasons before making a judgement. I also think a KC flip would give us an indication of his alignment.

[AurorusVox]

Wait, if KC flips scum, DP is his partner? I think if KC flips scum, DP did good to get a case started on him. Or do you think that he was distancing with that vote & lack of explanation?

[AurorusVox]

EBWOP: I think "case started" is a little generous to DP. What I mean is if KC is scum, DP was among the first to raise suspicions of him today, even if these were not properly outlined until later.

---

RE: KC

I made a case on him in the same post that I made a case on you. It involved rolefishy D1 ending and the odd "shotty is town but his scum partner is DP" comment, plus now his avoidance of the question of that comment. I think DP had some additional points in the post he eventually made.

[AurorusVox]

King, I saw it, but your answer IS insufficient.

You haven't explained how they can be SCUMbuddies when one of them is a TOWN read, or what would possess you to think that.

[AurorusVox]

Let's see if I can be clearer here:

I played with the possibility that they were scum buddies because DP took up Shotty's vote.

No, you didn't. You said Shotty was town. That is not playing with the possibility of them being scum buddies. That is saying that you think they are scum buddies despite ONE of them being town. The two sentiments CANNOT logically correlate with one another.

To me it seemed odd considering that their were other cases that had bloomed up that seemed much more plausible to build a case against.

So he's not going onto the easiest of votes? Hold on to this thought.

But DP took up a vote on me, joining shotty with no reason whatsoever and then believing he didn't need to support it to begin with. Am I the only one that found that odd?

No; I asked DP for his reasons, Leech voted DP for not providing reasons. You're sounding awfully blinkered here. And DP did then provide support for his case. Do you think he NEVER had the case and only made it up afterwards? Or do you think he is lazy and/or didn't reveal his case for some other reason? If so, why?

If you argue I should of kept that to myself considering I voiced my opinion that shotty was town then this is my answer:

I felt that other people would find it odd and discuss why they had voted as such without any reasoning. Shotty has still to show any reasoning. obv scum is not reasoning.

I don't think you should have kept it to yourself. I have no problem with you supposing that they are scum buddies. My problem is with you saying that they are scum buddies AND saying one of them is town. You're still calling Shotty town.

Which reminds me that you've sounded pretty sure about him being town for a while now. For a claimed VT, I'd like to know where this certainty has come from?

Oh yeah, and

This is utterly ridiculous he is rushing this day thinking that he has an easy lynch. At the end of the day assuming I'm lynched his first post will be "lol sorry guys my bad, let me just hop on whatever wagon has the most votes"

Another contradiction here. I thought you said that there were better (i.e. easier?) cases for DP to push when he came into the game? But now he's jumping on the easiest bandwagon? What is it - is he picking silly, hard cases; or easy (and therefore less silly?) cases?

---

Leech vs TL is sounding very much town on town to me =_="

@Leech: I'm pretty sure TL is just a badly behaved town player. Read over his latest posts in response to me. Maybe you didn't pay it much attention because you were focusing on his replies to you, I don't know. But, there is town motivation hidden in there. Like one of those optical illusions - its bloody hard to see it but if you look deep enough you can see it.

@TL: Leech is one of the most pro-town players in this game. His cases are GOOD and in his arguments with you he is definitely coming out better. I still agree with all of his points against you, I just happen to think that you're town who, in your own words, went overboard (and messed up). Also, I do think we could do with some more discussion from Leech and VV with regards to KC, so I'd urge you not to hammer just yet even if you did decide to switch off of Leech. I especially want to see what VV has to say about him.

[AurorusVox]

Leech:
1. Sure, I mean, he could say something like "If Shotty flips scum, DP is likely his partner." But he hasn't said that, and he thinks Shotty is town, and he's voting DP atm, and I don't think DP scum indicates Shotty scum. It looks like he's becoming suspicious of DP for other reasons now, and he's said that he's dropped the Shotty-DP scumteam idea, though, so this is becoming less of an issue (although I have other concerns about that to raise in a mo).

2. I'm not quite sure what this is in response to. This reads more like an general observation than a flaw in a case of mine, but if it's the latter then if you let me know the specifics I can address them xD

3. I am now officially drowning in WIFOM when it comes to this. I have two opposing ideas butting heads with each other. I don't think either one will be victorious today...

Actually, I'd like updated reads of TL from VV and KC before anyone considers hammering. I might be imagining things, except for that Shotty and DP seem to have seen the same towntell(s) too.

---

DP/TL: One if not both of the scum is in that pair. I support a lynch of either of these two.

You make very good points against TL. If possible, I'll talk to you more about this tomorrow, else in post-game. But atm, for my own sanity, and just in case, I'd consider voting DP long before I considered TL.

---

A)Yes I said he was prob town. And yes I said in a post that Shotty and DP could be a plausible pair. My point in doing this was to bring up a discussion topic. Obviously it failed terribly since people began to incriminate me and no one else found their play style up to that point odd. I'm not sure why your failing to see that. I said I wasn't going to pursue it a few posts back. I obviously know you can't be scum and town but I was trying to see if others who didn't think shotty is probably town would see the pair to be viable.

Again, people have found DP's entrace suspect (notably Leech). It does look to be an unsettling coincidence, but that's never been my issue with what you were saying. Okay. I'm going to see if we've gotten our wires crossed.

So it sounds like if other people had seen it as a viable pair, you'd have thought Shotty was more likely scum than town, right?
Why are you now no longer pursuing it as a viable pair? Because no one else thought it was? Because I pressured you about it?

B) I think he didn't have a case and made one after you pressed him on it for two reasons.

1) He first asked if it was really needed for him to post his reasons. At this point in time I was about to cry.
2) On his one post that described his case against me almost all of his reasons were stuff that were discussed early in the game. And they all only revolve around Shotty. If anything I would build a case against me about my Avish case just because of how poor it was. But instead he mentions two things very briefly from later in the game and his most in depth analysis comes from the Shotty PL which seemed kind of odd. Especially considering their were multiple people that considered the Shotty Lynch as well. I also lol'ed at the RVS bit.

I think not having a case when you purport to have one is very risky and frankly very stupid for scum to do. But your #2 is interesting; do you think you behaved most scummily in your Avish case? And that this would have been the easiest thing for him to attack? I don't know, because I think scum probably WOULD take the easiest route if they were making up a case. Unless they didn't read to look for a case. Or were borrowing other peoples' ideas. Which is kind of what you're saying. Hmm. And you are also now worried that he's trying to rush your lynch through: why do you think he might try to do that?

C) I explained it briefly a little while back. Shotty isn't taking any interest into this game and his play style is considerably that of a VI. For example "king is obv scum." You can argue that scum could easily act in the same manner but the excitement isn't there. You are much more likely to want to participate if you are scum. In fact the first game I read on this site shotty was fairly active. He was lynched in Lylo and turned up to be scum. Hardly a sterling example but you comprehend my point I hope.

Again, I don't have an issue with your Shotty read. It's the incompatibility of that with your ShottyScumTeam read that baffles me. Do you think that people who are excited to participate in general are scum?

D) Your grasping at air here Vox. Instead of pursing the shotty wagon like TL had started to and most likely others would come in with a good ole lurking case, he chose my case. Seemed kind of odd since all of his reasoning also kind of went back to Shotty and the Shotty Policy lynch attempt. Nothing about Avish but everything about Shotty. Perhaps I should be rethinking my analysis of shotty but it's difficult to do so since he's contributed so little and is massively lurking. '

Hardly so; you were arguing that DP hops onto easy wagons. Right here you've said he could have gone on the easy PL Shotty wagon or a lurker wagon, which would have been infinitely easier than going after you. So you've said he hops on easy wagons, but also said your case is harder to make than others. Which is it? Do you think going on harder cases is a scumtell in general?

As a sidenote, I can see how this all ties into your Shotty/DP scumteam idea if you thought Shotty was scum - you'd say "instead of going for the easier wagon on his buddy, he made a case on me!" But that doesn't work with TownShotty because if Shotty is town, then scumDP probably WOULD have gone for that wagon (unless its WIFOM time)...

[AurorusVox]

Shotty I thought you said DP was scum with KC?

[AurorusVox]

V/LA Saturday-Monday

Internet-light tomorrow til Saturday; Monday and Tuesday.

Thanks!

-Vel

[AurorusVox]

Yeah, I can see four possible outcomes for TL vs Leech. 3/4 have one of them as scum. Depending on whether or not Leech continues to push TL, it will be easier to see which is the case. There is one outcome where both are town. We'll see.

I can see the DP case if I look for it. It doesn't scream scum as much as KC's scumminess has,

but

KC's recent play suggests he's changing. I can't tell if this is due to scum-backtracking-under-pressure, or town-realising-a-mistake. The "Vox will skin me for this" sounds like the latter, and I'd like to see how this evolves over the next few days.

DP; what do you make of the wagon on you? Are you surprised that Vas voted for you?

*This can be explained tomorrow if need be as at least one person who can explain it will be alive.

[AurorusVox]

Not much has happened in the time I've been away...KC is still hovering around the almost-convincing-me-to-switch-my-vote stage, but DP is hovering around the almost-but-not-quite-enough-to-convince-me-to-switch-my-vote stage. I think while I'm on a knife-edge like this, it's better coming down on the one who's already claimed...

-KC, do you think TL is scum?
-Vas, KC has already claimed (VT). What do you have to discuss about it?

[AurorusVox]

I'm not convinced that if you think Shotty is scum, that you'd then think TL is town. This smells a little fishy to me, but at this stage, and the fact that you've claimed already, I'm happy to let that small fish be the straw that mixed my metaphor.

KC, could you give your top

three

scum reads, in order?

[AurorusVox]

VV, you think switching the wagon away from a claimed VT the DAY before the deadline, with Leech not posting and TL not having expressed a desire to vote DP, is really the best lynch for this phase?

[AurorusVox]

TL, does that mean that you won't be hammering KC either?

[AurorusVox]

To avoid a NL? You don't have the support for a Leech vote today.

[AurorusVox]

TL: NL is awful for the town. If we NL, scum kills tonight, that plumps us in MYLO tomorrow, so we'll be forced to NL again. That gives scum another free NK without fear of getting lynched. And then we're slap-bang in LYLO with no leads because we've only seen the flips that the scum want. We ought to lynch today, with the chance of hitting scum. Even if we end up in LYLO tomorrow, it's better that we have the flips that

we

want.

Vote: DavidParker

L-1.

DP's vote for Leech is scummy enough to make me switch my vote to him despite my reservations about the deadline and KC's claim. There is no way Leech was getting enough votes to get lynched today; I believe his plan was to frame it so that TL said "Oh hey, look, DP is voting for Leech, he must be pro-town, but quick, let's both vote for KC to avoid the NL." And if TL did opt to continue pushing the Leech lynch, it would likely end with a NL, which as I've shown above, is AWFUL for town but great for scum (the fact that TL is considering allowing it to slide is actually very disturbing).

I now support the DP lynch more than the KC one, but will switch back to KC to secure a lynch at deadline if the alternative is an NL.

[AurorusVox]

DP: Why switch at this late hour if it wasn't to disrupt our lynch chances? Or do you honestly think you had enough support for a Leech lynch? And look - TL said exactly what I thought he'd say, that he would consider keeping you alive for your Leech vote.

[AurorusVox]

Damnit. Well, I think it's pretty obvious that Shotty was TL's innocent report. Treating him as a clear townie.

VV, KC: did you pick up on his crumbs?

Since Leech has been replaced, I can't really push this question at xvart (hello btw!) but I would like to point out that I think TL's crumb was sufficiently obvious that I find it very odd that Leech did not notice it. Clearly this is what Leech would have us believe, since he voted TL and even when I pushed him to read TL's posts carefully, he never seemed to acknowledge the crumbs. For such a perceptive player, that doesn't sit well with me. This is why I said I had four scenarios in mind; 1/4 had both as townies, 3/4 had one as scum. Just to explain further, I'll share what they were. Bolded are the ones that are still relevant.

(1) Leech is VT, TL is cop: Leech either did not pick up the crumb (unlikely); or did not believe it but did not want to push TL on it specifically (why not?)

(2) Leech is scum, TL is VT: Leech did not pick up the accidental crumb, because he knew that this was the one PR setup and therefore did not think that TL would be crumbing cop <<< Clearly not true
(3) Leech is cop, TL is scum: Leech's picked up the crumb but knew that it was fake, but did not push TL on it specifically to not out himself as cop <<< Clearly not true.

(4) Leech is scum, TL is cop: Leech picked up the crumb but pretended not to notice it to distance himself from a TL NK. Could be likely.

I really wish Leech was here to answer these accusations. I tried to press him on this yesterday without explicitly outing TL's crumbs, but he didn't seem to notice or engage with it. What makes me uncertain about Leech being scum is that before I noticed TL's crumbs, I felt exactly the same way about TL. All of the points Leech brought up were valid, imo, but were mitigated by his crumb. What makes me uncertain about Leech being town is that I find it very hard to believe that Leech failed to see the crumbs. He strikes me as a competent player, and the oversight feels as though it could have been fabricated.

xvart, I'm not sure how you can address these concerns of mine. Have you read through the thread before now? If so, do you claim to have noticed the crumbs or missed them?

Lastly, I think Shotty and DP both picked it up since they said a number of times "TL is town guys" or words to that effect. I'd like to hear from VV since he didn't really go after TL, and I'd also like to hear from KC because he said he felt TL was town and I'm wondering why that was.

[AurorusVox]

KC: Two problems with your post

(1) You said you thought TL was town yesterday. But your reason for finding him town has only just become apparent? Are you perhaps pleading ignorance to TL's cop crumb yesterday so it can't be pegged against you in terms of his NK?

(2) If you posit that I'm scum, you ought also to logically posit that I killed TL because I thought he was the cop. However, your main reason for FoSing me is that I asked for 3 top suspects to assist my NK choice. Why would I need assistance with the NK choice if I felt I had already had discovered the cop?

As for why three suspects: I emphasised three because I wanted to see where you would put people beyond a two-person system. With two people, it's easy for scum to put two townies and avoid reasoning against their buddy. With three people, scum tend to include their buddy for distancing purposes. I find it interesting that your top two are townies. If I hadn't asked for top three, you'd have just kept on mentioning DP and Shotty (both townies). This was the purpose for asking for three.

[AurorusVox]

KC: So you only thought TL was a cop during the night? Or are you saying that you only retroactively found the crumbs after seeing that he was cop?

xvart: by "pointed them out" do you mean explicitly (as in, today) or when I told Leech to look closer at TL's posts?

Still after VV's take, and I'm very interested to see Shotty's opinion on the players left alive.

[AurorusVox]

^KC's post: Right, so that accounts for why you thought TL was town but not Shotty.

...My problem is that the only real reason one would have for considering TL to be town fmpov was that he crumbed cop. By this I mean that his play was pretty scummy. So my issue with your reasoning is that it looks a little like you

knew

he was town (like it seemed D1 that you knew Shotty was town) without really having a convincing reason.

[AurorusVox]

Actually KC, you'll see that this is the post that made me think he was cop. My argument for town-on-town came later and was a result of me thinking TL was cop(=town), not the other way around. Also, with this as the first of many crumbs, I don't accept Leech's inactivity had anything to do with him supposedly missing it, since Leech was still active at this point and after it.

I understand people might miss things but (and no offence meant by this) Leech is more experienced than you and I would have expected him to see it. Also, I told Leech to read TL's posts carefully - which he did - but he still missed it. I don't find it that odd that

you

claim to have missed it, but I do find it hard to believe that Leech specifically claims to have. Lastly, even if you did pick it up (as scum), not letting on that you'd seen it meant you could continue pushing Shotty as scum, so the fact that you had TLtown and Shottyscum doesn't really placate me either :\

---

VV: you deny it too? Why didn't you go after TL yesterday then? I mean, seriously guys. He was saying "I know Shotty is town" / "with what I know" / "read between the lines" - how could you NOT have seen it? Funny how you all claim to have missed seeing the crumb. Sounds like someone (Leech/VV would be my guess) picked up the claim, kept quiet about it, and then told their buddy in the QT to deny knowledge.

---

With Shotty as clear, the lack of quicklynch attempt leads me to think that KC is scum. Either he's scum with VV (which is why VV didn't vote) or VV didn't attempt it because VV is town (=xvart/KC scumteam). Either option leads to KCscum.

Then again, xvart hasn't posted since shotty's vote. Maybe VVscum is waiting for that ><"

[AurorusVox]

There was a 50/50 chance of cop with the doctor in play.

Maybe I noticed it because he stressed it directly in a post to me. It just boggles the mind.

[AurorusVox]

Vote: KingCheese

[AurorusVox]

*insert Brofist.jpg here*

QFT

[AurorusVox]

Shotty I think you mean doctor...and the doctor got lynched D1...instead of you.

[AurorusVox]

Also Shotty is cop-confirmed town.

xvart tomorrow.

[AurorusVox]

If the scum isn't KC then town have already lost.

[AurorusVox]

No dumbass, it's LYLO today. Are you even reading this game?

[AurorusVox]

Yeah, no one should be posting about their alignment until after the official mod scene. And the dead ought not to be posting either. KC, we'll get onto play analysis and game talk after the official lynch scene

[AurorusVox]

MUAHAHAHAHAHA!

/brandish weapon in a threatening manner

---

I think there were many things that worked in the scum's favour in this game;

- Actively not lynching claimed VTs: note that after getting the claim, I then came up with reasons to switch to a different wagon. I didn't really want to personally get on Avish's wagon to force the claim from her because I'd prefer one-on one-off on mislynches, but Eggy was delaying so I had to do something lol. Getting her to claim was the task, it was just how to go about it. If I'd been pressured more to keep my vote where it was or stick to my LACVT policy, then things might have turned out differently. Also, this meant that even if TL

hadn't

outed himself to us, we'd have guaranteed either a RB or kill on the cop N2 (only non-claimed players were Leech and TL from scum pov)

- Avish self hammering...as doctor. Avish, I know you felt frustrated but from that point out we were sitting very pretty. Especially since any outed cop would then die. Self hammering is only ever a viable strategy if you're scum, and even then I don't like it.

-Leaving Shotty alive til LYLO. If the PL had gone through on Shotty D1, this would have been a very different game. TL would have investigated someone else, and Avish as doctor would have been able to save him...who knows what would have happened! His vote for KC allowed us to quickhammer; he didn't realise it was LYLO, which helped out a lot...><"

-TL outing himself. I still can't believe no one saw it...xD Lucky for me and Vas, I guess! But as I said, this wasn't a huge deal - we'd have RB'd or killed him either way since he was 50/50 cop with Leech/xvart.

---

Abundance of PBPA! Disclaimer: this isn't meant to sound condescending, just my observations and some random additional questions :p I hope you all enjoyed playing against/with me, I enjoyed playing with all of you ^^

VV:

you sexy beast

Leech:

I really liked your analyses this game, but unfortunately, they were finding scumtells on the wrong players. I don't blame you though - TL was pretty scummy D2, if you didn't pick up his crumbs. Avish, on the other hand...I didn't really find that scummy to be honest. Her scumminess was the sort that you had to find by actively looking for it. And did you not realise that TL was crumbing cop, or did you just not believe his crumbs? I'd love to play with you again, on the same side preferably though!

(

xvart:

you didn't have much of a chance to even post in this one, sorry bud)

TheLonging:

Did you crumb inno report on Shotty to prevent us going after him? Or was it more to defend yourself? I think you were in a tough position, after the vote/unvote at the start of D2. It must have been frustrating when Leech didn't "read between the lines". Did you realise I'd picked up your crumbs, and did that worry you? Without PR knowledge, you looked pretty scummy, but if you hadn't been a PR, I don't think you'd have looked as scummy, so it's a Catch-22 :\ I have no idea what I'd have done if I'd been town and noticed your crumbs in this situation. I'd have probably believed them but not so readily!

DavidParker:

Sorry for voting you D2, but the switch gave me the excuse I desperately needed to get off of the claimed VT. You even acknowledged yourself that the switch was scummy. Was it a trap intended to catch scum (like me)? Because if so, I think it was faulty in that it was scummy and so town would have picked up on it too. I also think your attitude about providing reasons/cases hurt you a bit, but I know that's just some player's playstyle. I personally find it hard to distinguish that from scumminess though

drmyshottyizsik:

Shotty, we were praying that you'd vote KC at daystart, and the fact that you didn't realise it was LYLO helped us in that cause. You really need to pay more attention >_>" That said you did develop Vox suspicions towards the end of D3, though I'm not sure why I was guaranteed scum over VV or xvart? I think this was more misunderstanding of the numbers than anything too solid...?

LordChronos

VV feared you and that was good enough for me to go along with. The fact you suspected VVscum shows that we were right to get rid of you (no one really pushed VVscum D1 or D2 that much except for me though, lol) Also I think your NK put a lot of WIFOM regarding NKs into the game, which was a happy byproduct. Its a shame I didn't get to play more with you (but good from scum pov)!

KingCheese

I think you're a good player, and will improve as you get some more experience. With anyone but Shotty in LYLO you probably wouldn't have been quicklynched, and would have likely been able to argue your corner. You started to get suspicious of me which was good (I think the only vote I ever got was an RVS from Shotty lol) but unfortunately you were bitchslapped by the quicklynch. You defused your wagon quite well on D2, but I still stand by my case on you - why you'd postulate a DP/Shotty scumteam with shotty as a town read is a bit confusing. Also, you did sound as though you were SURE of your reads - not that it's bad to argue with certainty, but be careful that this doesn't come across as having inside knowledge I'd look forwards to playing with you again! What were your thoughts D3? Was I your only remaining scum read (from your FoS) or was VV still buzzing around as Mr Neutral?

Avish

I think both me and VV agree that you played quite well, but unfortunately became a viable target for a non-Shotty mislynch. Never ever ever self-hammer as town, and especially not as a PR. Your reads and analysis was pretty good, and it was only by reading you specifically looking for scummy things that I managed to build a case on you. I hope you liked your D1, and would be greatly interested in seeing how you played in your next game, hopefully with the lessons learnt in this one!

[AurorusVox]

Heh yeah, I was careful only to push VV when his lynch was never going to happen >:)

[AurorusVox]

I'd have still opened with the same post but questioned why you were voting so early in LYLO. I didn't push Shotty on it because we wanted to quickhammer (yeah our banter was basically checking we were still online lol), but I'd have probably framed it as scummy for you to vote out the gate. I know Shotty accused me of being scum for voting out of the gate once so that may have worked.

But I'd have heartlessly bussed, and then pushed on probably KC at LYLO (my point about his three list scumlist with VV unmentioned at #3 as distancing; and additionally defended myself by saying I've always been after VV's blood, and even tried to direct people onto his lynch D1)

[AurorusVox]

Although, if I was Town I would have attacked AV with an 'Why would you assume there is a cop?' angle. I actually think that was pretty damning in itself. 50-50 percent chance is correct, but if someone was as confident as that I'd automatically be suspicious. Luckily, no one picked that up so it boded well for us.

I was fully expecting this to be raised by someone, because I did believe the cop crumb too readily (as scum play this was necessary to get TL off my back though lol). I guess because no one else noticed it, I got away with it. But this is why I left some scope for me wondering about TL scum with my "4 points" which I had mentioned on D2 and then explained in detail on D3 - not that it actually mattered. Beyond that I'd have argued that I'd rather not risk losing Doc and Cop to D1 and D2 lynches respectively, and so decided to look elsewhere for scum and see if TL made it til the next day.

I should have put KC at L-1 then I'd have been the L-1 man for the whole game T_T But hammering ftw felt good :p

[AurorusVox]

Yeah, if you'd let Shotty get lynched...and then got roleblocked...and claimed cop in LYLO...your reports would have been "Shotty Inno" and "No report" which would have looked incredibly bad for you. I think it was a very difficult situation to extract yourself from.

[AurorusVox]

ITT: KC proves that he is a perceptive player and ought to be one to consider killing off in future games

The Vas case I pushed was something I would have pushed had I been town. It did seem to be a contradiction, and I didn't want to let it slip by :p I think we decided not to NK you because as Vas pointed out, you were giving off VT vibes. We had to hunt for the cop. With Vas' experience of LC, and TL outed, those were the obvious NK choices. I was pretty scared of Leech (which is why we RB'd him N1) but he seems to listen to logical arguments, which can be a problem sometimes - as scum, I tend to stick to logic, so I hoped I could skirt his suspicions :p

Also, I want to say that I think TL's D1 was really good as cop. If you look in the QT, you'll see we thought the cop was potentially one of Leech/LC. I wonder what would have happened if we'd killed TL off N1 instead? :p

[AurorusVox]

xD Yeah I thought since me and VV had softclaimed mafia victory and no one picked up on it I'd play through pretending to be town. What if someone's vote hadn't counted? We'd have been funked over and I didn't want to just go silent for the same reason :p

[AurorusVox]

Yeah. PL on D2 was a no go. He should have gone D1. /shrugs

[AurorusVox]

If Shotty had been lynched, then I'd have left TL alive and pressured his claim as fake :\ "You're cop...with an inno on

lynched

Shotty, and no other results? Hello, fakeclaim"

I'd have even had VV or myself counterclaim him to push for his lynch at 5-person LYLO. Possibly pushed the one-of-us-claim-guilty-report-on-the-other strategy to get to D4 3-way lylo, and I think we'd have scooped the win there and then.

[AurorusVox]

I thought that many of Leech's walls painted a very good case on TL...the real clanger was the fact he missed TL's cop crumbs which explained away all of those scumtells. By persisting with it, Leech looked more and more scummy to someone who did notice the crumbs (or indeed to TL himself)

[AurorusVox]

LOLOL DRUNKPOSTING TO SAY WHY IS THIS STILL ON MY FUCKING BOOKMARKS?!



I loved playing with almost everyone here. If I see you guys (esp. Leech, VV, and Avish) joining games again, I will JOIN IT LIKE A BITCH.