Newbie 1561: Puppies! (Game Over)

[++--]

VOTE: Cabd for also having a 4-character name.

[++--]

@Singersinger

he said the game "usually" starts with RVS, not that it should.

Fair enough, this distinction may or may not be meaningful depending on how Cabd replies.

The bigger question, in my opinion, however, is that whether this was a poorly phrased random vote, or, what I find less likely, something that, according to Cabd, should have some sort of a meaning. My guess would be that this was an entirely random vote, with poor "reasoning" as "last to confirm" seems too weak for me, especially from an IC.

[++--]

I don't really see how that, if, indeed was a random vote, is any different from basically any other random vote. But, so far, this is only a speculation without Cabd's answer, just as copper223 said.

[++--]

Whatever, apparently, I keep overthinking stuff, because I considered the case if it was an entirely random vote with badly phrased reasoning. I think I shouldn't go so far ahead while trying to get the "meaning" of a vote in RVS.

[++--]

Why do you consider that option in particular, assuming he chose it as a method to randomize and not because he believes it may be a scumtell, to be "the easy option"? For instance I picked the first name on the list.

To be honest I was just saying what I think, Personally my vote was also an "easy option" by voting you for being the first to comment in the game. But I suppose that is what the RVS is for.

I think there's nothing wrong with an "easy option" vote (in the beginning) as long as you don't want to make it appear like something meaningful.

[++--]

I agree ++--, so it looks to me like ++-- is thinker and Paul is a spontaneous player, reads on them should be developped according to these baselines.

It would appear you are a thinker also, maybe even an over thinker (not that that is a bad thing maybe I should replace the word over with meticulous?) I wouldn't say I'm spontaneous more I just say it as I see it but I suppose that would be for other people to decide!!!

Are you then a thinker for thinking that he is a thinker?

I don't really think this will lead us anywhere.

[++--]

choof (0):
paulw556 (0):
++-- (0):

VOTE: paulw556

I urge paul to vote for ++--, and for ++-- to vote for me. Not only will this put a vote on everyone, but it will also appease those with OCD

Both paul and I already have votes on. The 'one vote on everyone' would only occur if Jason and Epic voted you and me, in some order.

[++--]

*have voted

I know that it's probably too early to do so, but I think now I'll say that, currently, I have a slight townread on copper for his generally helpful comments and questions, and, at the same time, not trying to lead.

[++--]

*have voted

I know that it's probably too early to do so, but I think now I'll say that, currently, I have a slight townread on copper for his generally helpful comments and questions, and, at the same time, not trying to lead.

Could he not be intentionally trying not to lead? Whereas a townie would act more naturally? Think it's still too early for town/scum reads. But then again, this is my first game

I also think it's quite early for reads, but I also think that a weak, initial read might help scumhunting. (However, this is also the first game (at least on this website) for me, so feel free to correct me if I'm totally wrong.)

[++--]

UNVOTE: Cabd VOTE: choof

And I also have my first scumread, namely, choof, for being generally unhelpful in the discussions with their randomish messages, which are not anywhere near a certain scumtell, but definitely worth taking into account. As he had no votes on as of this point, I changed my vote to him.

About the posts posted since my last post: to me, Epic Warrior seems like a legit newbie, who, however, is highly conscious of his actions, but doesn't really seem like a scum to me. In fact, his last questions are obviously "for future reference", and thus could even be considered as points for being town, but, so far, I'd rather go with a null read on him.

[++--]

UNVOTE: Cabd VOTE: choof

And I also have my first scumread, namely, choof, for being generally unhelpful in the discussions with their randomish messages, which are not anywhere near a certain scumtell, but definitely worth taking into account. As he had no votes on as of this point, I changed my vote to him.

Was wondering when we'd get one of these votes. If you don't mind, I'm going to paraphrase this so people can read it later in the game.

UNVOTE: Cabd VOTE: choof

Choof isn't contributing to the minimal amount of discussion (which I started, everyone take note of this please), therefore I will put a vote on him because he's an easy target, and, more importantly, he makes a good policy lynch.

Congratulations, that probably was the very worst reaction ever to a single vote given when you had 0, while emphasizing that it is not anywhere near final and happened only because you had no votes at that point. Great.

[++--]

@Singer
Yep, I have to ISO you because if you are really good there's a pretty good chance of you being scum here.

Choof's play is likely town, there is no reason as mafia to go around naked screaming lynch me as he did, unfortunately the fish he got are the two players that might genuinely believe he is scum, so the bait did not work. If I had to guess they are all town.

I was waiting for Cabd to follow up because if an IC jumps on this train he is ver likely scum, and to see what you would do after calling what is happening interesting, because I'm trying to understand if you are also waiting for people to jump on it to call them scum or if you are trying to break it up as soon as possible before a maybe less experienced partner gets caught in the bait.

However, at the very same time, EXACTLY by pointing out what you waited for, you ruined the whole point of waiting, didn't you? I understand that you were specifically asked about what are you waiting for, but, at the same time, maybe you could've said it with less details?

[++--]

I'm conflicted with what Cabd's doing at the moment. As IC, obviously you have to be a guiding light of sorts for new players, but as a player yourself, you'd want to win for whatever team you're on.

Are you telling someone about your meta so they can learn how to meta someone with a bias, or are you deliberately feeding them a bad meta?

Okay, I get that you're basically trying to construct baits, but just one question: do you seriously expect an IC to answer something like 'deliberately feeding a bad meta'? And, if, what I find more likely, this was a rhetorical question: what was the point?

[++--]

Don't hold back observations. That being said, the whole "baiting" thing by withholding information really pisses me off because it's like "oh I was purposefully acting scummy or being coy DUH" which is just a lame excuse for "oh shit you caught me."

Why would withholding information in order to get better reads be acting scummy?

[++--]

@++--

However, at the very same time, EXACTLY by pointing out what you waited for, you ruined the whole point of waiting, didn't you? I understand that you were specifically asked about what are you waiting for, but, at the same time, maybe you could've said it with less details?

It's possible, it gave me 3 early town reads so that's not a bad start, also interacting with Cabd forced or resulted in a read he gave on me which is not bad info, I can still examine Singer based on how she replies. You could have also thought about why Choof was painting himself as scum more, no? It's useless to second guess the play of others, unless you think what I did was scum motivated?

Okay, I get that you're basically trying to construct baits

Why are you still voting for him then?

I see your point. About why I'm still voting choof: there are two reasons: 1. whenever playing mafia at websites or IRL, I found that it too often happens that my guess is right at the beginning, but I change it becuase I overthink stuff 2. I want to see where this current situation goes, for a few days, to develop better reads. (Obviously enough, if it'd go to L-1, I'd unvote. Maybe even at L-2, I don't know. But this is not the case so far.)

[++--]

Sorry for not posting, but I didn't really find anything new, which should either be replied to or said, especially since I kind of feel like the same as Jason ("no one is scumhunting regarding me"). Also, based on the recent reactions, I have my second slight scumread, namely, singer. About others, I mostly feel null(ish), except from paulw and Cabd, who didn't seem to participate enough for me to be even able to say nullish. Anyway, since "let's see how this plays out", UNVOTE: choof.

[++--]

*"let's see how this plays out" didn't work

[++--]

Hmmm... it'll be interesting to see how Hostile Intent plays because... umm, to be honest, choof's play was a bit confusing in my opinion.

[++--]

Gonna be voting plusle soon.

So you don't vote me but you... announce that you'll vote me soon. That probably is the most pointless thing that could ever happen.

[++--]

@++--
It's probably some kind of reaction test. Has your Epic Warrior read stayed the same?

Still definitely not a scumread.

[++--]

And I don't like posting votes without reasoning

...says, then proceeds to vote calling a bunch of randomly selected quotes a "reason".

[++--]

@Plusle

You must have missed my reasoning between quote posts. It's alright dude, happens to the best of us

"followed shortly by" isn't a reasoning, especially, since you obviously missed the following parts:

"but I also think that a weak, initial read might help scumhunting" in 36

"are not anywhere near a certain scumtell" and "As he had no votes on as of this point, I changed my vote to him." in 54

Everything else you've written is not anywhere near something that could possibly be considered a reasoned thing in your post, and, thus, is not worth answering to.

[++--]

Okay, now I have decided to read people's posts in isolation, too. So, based on this, a list of players in order of increasing scumminess, (having read posts until #202, so not considering if there was anything new since then) and, obviously enough, in my opinion:

copper223

.

Absolutely helpful posts, and still doesn't seem to try to read. My townread on him slightly decreased for a while because he seemed to be tunneling on Epic, but, ISOing, it looks like that the length of his posts addressing Epic Warrior was the thing that deceived me, and he, in fact, is not tunneling.

JasonWazza

.

Being the first to post readlists, changing opinion as the game develops and basically asking to be read make me think he is a townie.

Hostile Intent/choof

.

HI didn't post enough for me to be able to get a read, so I'll go with choof's posts. His actions seemed weird to me (that's why I have voted him previously), but now seem okay. At first, I didn't like how he voted without giving any reason outside of the RVS, but I'd say that scum probably would have made up some sort of a reasoning.

Cabd

.

Originally, he didn't contribute very much, and I also don't like how he was buddying copper with this 'you remind me of my earlier self' stuff (#73) but I like his detailed readlist. The 'why are you calling me townie for that?' attitude (#198) looks good to me.

Epic Warrior

.

He seems to try to discredit people who are voting him, but at the same time, his actions seem quite natural and not forced. Also, his "half the posts in this game are made to make people look bad" make me seem like that he might just take the quote in tool's signature ("Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right.") a bit too seriously, but, then again, could also be a general scumplay. Scummier than Cabd because of the aforementioned #198. Not scummy enough for a lynch though.

paulw556

.

No contributions at all, so nothing much to go on. The fact that he placed a vote on choof not much after I did, and unvoted also not much after gives the possibilities that he is either a scum, following a what he thinks to be general townread, but, could also be a pure coincidence. His few posts weren't entirely useless but not very useful either, IDK if a clueless townie or a bad scum. As scummy mallow.

mallowgeno

.

His contribution to the game was: 3x posting about his inactivity, posting a bunch of random quotes from me, and calling them a reason, and... 2 questions of which one ("Are you then a thinker for thinking that he is a thinker?") contributed absolutely nothing to the game. I call bulls**t. As scummy as paul.

singersigner

.

So... we are talking about a player, who has called withholding observations scummy in #86, but, later, said that posting read lists is a bad idea (#136), which is a pretty huge contradiction to me. Also, an offensive, questioning attitude, which could be baiting, but singer's questions don't seem like that. And, whenever being more defensive (which is quite recently, and, AFAIK, scum usually gets more and more defensive as the game progresses, so... another thing I don't like), still seems like to take "the best defense is a good offense" position.

[++--]

Oh my God, a company's hold music is Rick Astley. Its the first couple lines of the chorus. This is the worst Rick Roll of all time.

Honestly, my current concerns lie in singersigner and Cabd. The former due to the question I've posed to them, and the latter due to the lack of posting. Shout out to Wazza for being a close third for similar reasons to Cabd. You're my only townread at the moment.

Both mallow (15), Epic (14), Jason (9) and paul (8, the most recent one 50 hours ago) posted less than Cabd (19). Is there any specific reason of still choosing Cabd over them?

[++--]

I assume you're driving at a bigger picture, however, so what was your point in calling me out?

Because the voting reason didn't seem to be consistent with the vote. But I'd say your explanation for this inconsistency sounds acceptable, even if I don't agree with your read about Cabd.

[++--]

Oooops, sorry, I phrased it entirely wrong, I meant you having the main FoS on Cabd. Whatever, I'm tired.

[++--]

Nothing, however, I've seen no inconsistency in your singer FoS, while at the time of me questioning, have seen it in your Cabd FoS.

I'd understand why you'd say it, but you'd be wrong.

[++--]

Hmmm... let's see how this changes the game. I can only hope the replacement will be more active, because so far the biggest thing I could base my read on paul was his inactivity.

[++--]

So, Drixx has managed to say way more in this short period of time than his predecessor during the entire game. Or mallowgeno. Or Epic Warrior. Maybe even more than Jason, Cabd and HI/choof. Well, well, well. Definitely not something I expected, but definitely a positive development.

[++--]

I was busy IRL, so I'll catch up on the most recent developments soon. I'll probably react to them later today.

[++--]

As I've said already, I was busy IRL. I'm catching up on stuff now. Expect multiple posts from me now.

[++--]

You, on the other hand, seem to be evaluating everyone equally.

While copper indeed seems to be the best at this, I'm pretty sure I disagree with this statement, I feel like that (as of this point, I haven't read much of the later comments, I'll fix this statement if it turns out to have changed later), I'm not being properly evaluated by anyone - neither those who scumread me, nor those who townread me.

[++--]

@Singersigner - Your wish; etc... (BTW, is there a pronoun I may use for you?)

I'm pretty town.

Generally I read this sort of thing as LAMIST. It's what first grabbed my attention in the back and forth talk about whether choof was baiting or not.

Do you think a player, who's as experienced as singer would LAMIST as scum? This was one of the very few stuff that didn't seem to be suspicious for me about singer's posts.

[++--]

I feel my re-entry into this game yesterday put down enough content to deliver enough material to base a read upon

While your re-entry delivered content, nothing before it did, don't you think?

So, Drixx has managed to say way more in this short period of time than his predecessor during the entire game. Or mallowgeno. Or Epic Warrior. Maybe even more than Jason, Cabd and HI/choof. Well, well, well. Definitely not something I expected, but definitely a positive development.

I find it more interesting that you left SingerSigner off that list.

Singer was saying stuff - but definitely not the way I like, seemed to be pretty opportunistic. (Note: I know I've previously said I don't like singer's "questioning" style and now I'm doing the same, but I have to since there's little time left and I have to catch up AND decide on a vote.)

[++--]

@Singer
Is your supposed PT slip WIFOM?

If it was WIFOM, would singer answer "yes, it is"? No, I doubt it.

Like, you either trust me or you don't. I don't really have another answer for you. *shrug*

Unlike the other LAMIST accusation, I feel like THIS is pretty much a "please think that I'm townie".

"A player that makes any sort of excuse or reasoning for their prior slot-owner's posts or actions is more likely to be scum than the baseline"

I might be wrong about this one as I've never played mafia with a player being replaced by another, but... don't townies also do this in a small degree if the previous player's action is scummy? I mean, towns also don't want to get mislynched on.

VOTE: Drixx

I don't like that he tested the waters for a SS lynch, then immediately backed off when copper and I showed the smallest amount of resistance to it.

However, previously, multiple players (including me) expressed their support towards the SS lynch. Why would've Drixx backed up with this situation?

Bleh. I'm used to submit being the right button and preview being the left.

I see a potential scum team in SS and HI, at the moment. SS played dumb about the WIFOM and then HI came in with a sarcastic post suggesting maybe SS really didn't realize there was WIFOM introduced

HI just basically accused me of chainsaw defending Cabd, so, therefore, is very much aware of it. Why would HI, in this case, still chainsaw defend SS?

[++--]

I think it really boils down to this: you either believe me, or you don't. You either trust that I'm a pretty transparent player and honest about my play, or you don't.

This is the second time you say the same. Seems like that you've found a good, townie-ish-sounding phrase to repeat.

VOTE: Drixx
I agree with you two, Singer and HI, I also think that EW defence from Drixx where he called Jason scummy for going on him makes EW a likely partner.

L-2

So far, you've been consistent, but I don't understand this vote. So far, you've been quite sure about EW being a mafia, and now you're lynching Drixx for being EW's potential partner?

Why is ++-- not voting with three days left to deadline? Fix that.

I will soon fix this, after I've finished on catching up.

I'd be willing to lunch EW or ++--.

And another "let's just lynch ++--" without reasons. Well, at least, in this case, not a vote.

[++--]

I'll write this remark before my modified read list, since it came in after I've started writing my readlist, but it's used in it: the first inconsistency I find about Drixx is how he says he finds a HI+SS scumteam most likely, but "would love to see the vote shift to Mal".




Sorry for the high amount of posts, but this will definitely be the last in this series of posts: modifications of my reads. (Original list in #203).

I still townread

copper

. So far, nearly entirely townie. Minor concern (previously "explained" in form of a question), and that's it.

JasonWazza

stays as a definite townread, too, for reasons stated previously, along with the fact that he could've easily jumped on a Drixx-lynch, if he was scum (unless, of course, it's a Jason-Drixx scumteam, which I find pretty unlikely).

My read on

Hostile Intent

is still "probably town": useful contributions, but a slightly pushy, and a "probably town" predecessor.

About

Cabd

, I don't like how he is back to not contributing much. Null, leaning towards scum.

Epic Warrior

seems to have gone inactive-ish since he is not being FOSsed now, which makes him a probable scumread for me.

Drixx

's activity was a definite good point for me, and, also, no slips or anything like that, also, some good observations, but he replaced a previous scumread of mine and just posted something self-contradictory, so I'd go with null leaning towards townie, but, I have some concerns, which I shall explain later this post.

My concerns about

mallowgeno

remain. Probably the scummiest as of this point?

And

singersinger

, uh oh... well, since my read list, one positive thing (namely, consitency) and two smaller negative things (unreasoned "EW or ++--", and that repeated 'believe me or not' phrase). Probably slightly less of a scumread than previously. Also, because of my concerns to be explained next paragraph, maybe even a null, leaning towards scum.


And now my concerns... my read on Drixx is "null, leaning towards town", but at the same time, none of my scumreads is voting Drixx, and this is alarming that either my scumreads are very wrong, or my read about Drixx isn't right, and I don't know which. Also, my read about singer especially doesn't seem to work right with my scumreads, since singer is voting one of my other scumreads, while 'willing to vote' the other, too. This could be easily explained by singer being scum with Drixx, however, Drixx is having his vote on singer, and was trying to convince people about singer being scum, so this theory doesn't really check out, either. I'm pretty much puzzled here.

That being said, I will try to sort these things out in my head, because I think I seriously don't get something right, and I don't know what. So, I'm not voting yet, but I will, once I'll have an idea about what the **** am I getting wrong here, which will hopefully occur later today.

[++--]

@copper223 What I've said in the first statement is that compared to others, I think that there are ridiculously few people actually evaluating my posts, and even those who do - specifially, you, since Drixx was speaking about you evaluating everyone equally - do it with less effor than evaluation other people's posts. About the second statement, you might actually be right, maybe I'm narrow-minded indeed. Your explanation about the vote on Drixx seems to be quite logical. One more question: what do you mean by the following?

This said it looks like you are getting ready to jump on the Drixx wagon and this pings me because usually as town I don't feel much need to justify myself and I just join a lynch at the end if mine doesn't seem to be working.

[++--]

VOTE: Epic Warrior for now, for the following reasons: I still couldn't 100% solve the inconsistency between my individual scumreads and potential team-reads (even though I think I've progressed on it), but Epic Warrior appears as a potential scum in both of my reads (especially since he was/is FOSed by my townreads). Also, whenever he isn't being "attacked", he seems to be quiet, uncontributive, and, in general, useless, while if scumread, gets VERY defensive, but at the same time, does this in an offensive way. Originally, I didn't FOS him much, but I REALLY don't like how he went inactive after the "attacks" on him stopped, and, also, because of the fact that in the more recent posts, singer, my previous main FOS seemed to be genuine townie, while mallowgeno is equally scummy as EW, but, in my opinion, his potential scumteams are less "strong" in the sense that I townread mallow's potential scum partners more than EW's.

[++--]

(Quick correction: of course, everyone is a potential scumpartner to everyone else, however, there are certain pairs which I'd find very odd, such as, say, a singer-mallowgeno, or a copper-EW pair, for example. There are a bit more than these, I've just given them as examples. For all of them, the reason is that they would be very risky as a bus, and as such, I consider them as nearly impossible.)

[++--]

It's pretty telling that mallow has yet to come in and hammer EW, too.

I don't think I fully understand your point with this. If you're saying that this is because they are the mafpartners (which I find probably the likeliest), why are you not voting EW, and if you're not saying this, and mallow is scum, wouldn't he have announced at least an intention to hammer to make sure he is not further scumread just because he hammered on EW when the bandwagon was about to be "moved" to him?

[++--]

YOU POSTED A READ ABOUT YOURSELF? OMFG I'M ACTUALLY LAUGHING NOW

[++--]

Okay, now with more seriousness.

1. not saying anything to that as I did already
2., . 9. .because stating reasons for a read would be too much of a requirement
3. I never knew it was so easy... just buddy someone, or not even that, just have the same mindset and... bam, you're town?
4. "some of his posts", says, and states no post numbers
5. "based on a post early on" are you really expecting us to read your mind that which post are you thinking about?
6., 7. 8. at least these are reasoned (more or less)

[++--]

who's not my strongest scumread

vs.

2 town, 5 null, 1 mild scumread, 1 scumread and that person is... the scumread.

[++--]

If both HI and EW are town, totally hats off to HI, really. but... I doubt this more and more as the game progresses (mostly thanks to EW).

@EW: just demonstrate it on any of the readlists. Really, do it. If you managed to make any of them seem as unhelpful as yours ACTUALLY IS, congratulations.

[++--]

I couldn't make a readlist as unhelpful to town as that one if I tried.

I don't think you give yourself enough credit. I'm sure you could if you applied yourself. As it is, why don't you just tell me what to say, and then I'll say it and it will help town more than they could ever appreciate.

@EW: just demonstrate it on any of the readlists. Really, do it. If you managed to make any of them seem as unhelpful as yours ACTUALLY IS, congratulations.

I will. How are readlists to be helpful? Do they open discussion? Do they make those who are scumread defend themselves?

Point not proven.

[++--]

Epic Warrior do this, Epic Warrior do that... WHAT IS THIS? WHAT THE HELL IS THIS? OMG... no maf would do something this obvious but... but this makes no sense. Help me, I have literally no idea what's happening now.

[++--]

This still makes no sense, or I'm slowly losing my mind. I don't know which but I think that at least one of these is true.

[++--]

Hmm... L-1 on Epic and on mallow, and mallow is the one not voting either. This is interesting. Let's see if he has anything to say. So far, I'd like an EW lynch more than a mallow lynch, but this might change, depending on his actions.

[++--]

Hm, this is an interesting development... and possibly a townread to HI from me, because I really doubt maf would want to kill someone on whom they tried to push a lynch. Anyway... because of reasons stated previously:

VOTE: Epic Warrior, for reasons I've stated already. If he's maf, I feel like Drixx or singer are his possible partners. (If I'm not supposed to vote this early in the day, tell it to me and I'll unvote.)

[++--]

If EW is scum, I guess that no scum was on the EW lynch, so that leaves {HI,singer,Drixx}, with Drixx and singer as most probable partners (partially because of the reason stated already, and partially because I doubt anyone would chainsaw a partner that hard).

If EW isn't scum... my reads are shit and probably I should simply flip a coin to get reads on people and I still would be more successful. That being said, with less assumptions than copper: {copper, Drixx, HI, singer, Jason, ++--} are the possible scum. I know I'm not, so that leaves {copper, Drixx, HI, singer, Jason}. I have too many townreads in this group (copper, HI, Jason) that, based on my current reads, a Drixx-singer team would be the team... which isn't entirely unlikely, but, obviously enough, not that likely that I should discount every other case, so I have to reevaluate my reads, which soon will happen.

[++--]

(Just dropping a notice that I caught a cold, so probably I won't be that active in the next few days (since I don't feel like I could really use my brain to think...). I'll try my best to analyse the posts written as soon as I get somewhat better.)

[++--]

(Posts, reacting to the posts written after the night, and, updates scumreads coming today, starting in at most 30 mins. Probably in multiple posts to avoid getting one, huge post.)

[++--]

@SS - Cabd was putting pressure on people and asserting that they needed to claim. In hindsight it makes sense that he was the cop, although that's a pretty aggressive way to play the role.

Even though this was a reply to something, still, some scum points go to Drixx for this. Reason: in experience (okay, real-time mafia, which has a quite different playstyle, but still), people who are giving actual, non-obvious explanations for a kill are more likely to be mafia.

- I know my alignment and made it pretty obvious so forget about Copper.

LAMIST + this "forget about Copper" doesn't look good to me. Why are you referring to yourself as "Copper"?

(Edit while writing: I see that Drixx also had the same concerns about this:

Secondly, you did a huge LAMIST and told the game to dismiss "copper" (speaking of yourself in the third person ... interesting) from their thoughts on scum. So far, anyone following along and accepting your premises seems right on track towards EW and me, just as you intend.

. It's a shame that his post overall is just exactly as worthless as the post he was reacting to, if we disregard this, small, and probably not even central part.)

and you postulated several times that I was perhaps not as nooby as I seem either. Just pointing that out.

At the first sight, I kind of disliked this question, since you know whether you're a noob or not, but now, I actually like it. A few townie points for that.

Singer has no likely partner on the EW wagon she could split from, that's why I clear her.

So... your entire game is based on the ONE assumption that the mafteam splits? That's pretty brave. I mean, you could definitely say that "most probably" or something, but I wouldn't guess that it's like over 75%, which means... you have to account for the other case, too.

I would ask you to ISO me and read what I said about EW yesterday and today before your post. I still maintain that Mal was the right lynch yesterday, because he was lurking without any apparent strategic value. Cabd also lurked strategically yesterday, as did Jason and EW. Singer did to a lesser extent.

So Mal was better than EW BECAUSE OF A THING THAT EW ALSO DID, as even you admitted? That makes no sense. At all.

@++--...why were you concerned about how early to vote someone in the day?

Because while I've played quite a decent amount of mafia previously, it was realtime and mostly IRL (with some online realtime ones, but that's more rare). And, whenever playing IRL mafia, I've seen that fast votes are usually a bad idea, however, having reread some finished games, I've seen that they are quite common here, so that's why I was asking.

Given the fact that Copper considers himself a top notch (99th percentile we might say) mafia player, do you believe that he's never once considered what the scum team had to think about on night one of a newbie game?

I absolutely don't understand what you were trying to achieve with this one: are you saying that copper is scummy for this, or that he isn't that much of a good player? If the latter, why is it important?


(Breaking the post here because I didn't want to address everything in one post. To be continued soon.)

[++--]

VOTE: copper223

Nah.

I never knew "Nah." was a legit reason to vote people.

@Jason
Why aren't you voting EW, did you change your mind from yesterday?

Since I'm about to answer your question to me as soon as I'll finish reading (and, of course, after some thinking): why did you ask Jason about this while, as of this point, he had only one comment, and, if he'd have voted EW at that point, that'd have put him to a VERY FAST L-1?

I have found it very hard to talk myself into you being scum Copper, because it would take exceptionally bold scum to run the game the way you have, but I can't explain away your obsession with a theory you admit has several points of possible failure. I can't explain away how you can say I look townie in one post and then make a completely invalid analogy in another post to advance said theory. I know you are smart and can reason quite well, so simple mistakes like glaringly bad analogies shouldn't come from you. As much as I wouldn't have believed that this would happen today, perhaps the reason scum didn't kill you last night is because you are on the team.

Vote: Copper223

IF you have found it very hard to talk yourself into copper being scum... wouldn't that mean that you're probably wrong, since you don't really believe it, but you had to talk yourself into it, especially since...

1.) Very Active - Generally you'll find the best players and very motivated VTs or scum in this tier. They interact with everything in the game.
2.) Mostly Active - Scum are most often found here

and copper is definitely in the Very Active category? Also, you've said that copper is smart and reasons quite welll - wouldn't that mean, that, instead of being stubborn, he'd adapt his playstyle according to his best interests, if he was scum?

That's all I've found that I should react to directly. General remarks in the next post, possibly reads too. (Definitely in at most an hour.)

[++--]

So... generally speaking, partially thanks to my lack of activity, too (sorry for that, but I've explained it previously), this game has turned into too much of a "Drixx going against copper, so, both scumreading eachother after a while". copper seems to be very stubborn, while, Drixx's main contribution is defending himself via attacking basically every single post by copper. Many of HI's additions are entirely useless - in fact, a high number of mostly contentless posts. singer's additions are okay, I guess. Nothing to say about Jason's or EW's post as a general remark, for obvious reason. Now, for the reads... again, from least scummy to most scummy:

copper223 - townread. This might be quite strange since I mostly agree with Drixx's posts about copper's inconsistencies, but there is a good reason for it. Namely, and, I hope copper doesn't find this insulting, but his play is EXACTLY the play of those town players who overrate themselves way too much. Not of the scums, those usually rather get very defensive (and brag about their skills). To me, it seems very likely, that he is a townie, who thinks his skills are 10/10, while, at best, 7/10, probably even less. Also, from his attitude, it's obvious, that, probably because of himself overestimating his skills, he just simply cannot accept that his theory is wrong, therefore, even when proven to be false, sticks with it.

singersigner - probably town. I've only spotted one contradiction, which, in my first readlist, I have called "pretty huge", but since... as big self-contradictory statements have been made, and this small number sounds quite good. I also like how she makes observations without trying to lead in any kind - based on the recent behaviour, even the great amount of questions in the beginning are acceptable, as, rereading them, none of those posts seem to be trying to take over any lead, which is a very huge townie point for a highly active player, in my opinion. This has resulted in that my original biggest FoS is now my second biggest townread, tied with Drixx.

Drixx - okay, it might seem that simple activity buys a townread from me, but... I mean, he's been mostly consistent (except from this last vote, which I absolutely understand why he did it, but still... it just... makes no sense (no, that's not a contradiction: if I imagine myself to his situation, I think probably I'd have done the same, but seeing the debate from the outside, it's absolutely ridiculous)), good activity, and useful remarks. A bit too concentrated on self-defense, though. Tied with singer.

JasonWazza - if he makes a post, I tend to like it. But there is this "if"... because it rarely happens.

Hostile Intent - what we have here is: white knighting my biggest scumread, and a gigantic amount of pointless posts that do not contribute to the actual discussion. Doesn't seem very nice.

Epic Warrior - I've said a lot about him already, so just to sum up: no actual contributions, very active when attacked, not active at all otherwise.



Now, again, some stuff that seems to be concerning to me, formulated as (rhetorical) questions: 1. HI and EW are my 2 biggest scumreads. But... they don't seem to be a likely scum team. I mean, does anyone here find it likely that a scum would chainsaw their partner so badly? Because I don't. But if that's the case that they aren't the scumteam... doesn't that mean that my reads are crap? But, if, that's the case... am I wrong to say that my readlists are actually more antitown than protown? 2. What if we're seeing a very well constructed bus between copper and Drixx? These drifts in their reads about eachother seem strange - but, again, maybe it's because they're the two dominant players? What if they are fooling everyone? But, if yes, why would they do that? 3. Is lurking a good reason to scumread? Is it a good thing to scumread Jason more than Drixx or singer just because he's lurking? Or, in fact, could it, especially since his posts are quite townie-ish, if he posts, that this should, in fact be a towntell, instead of a scumtell? 4. What if I'm stubborn for townreading copper yet again, with the "he's probably a townie who's overrating himself"? Can't it be a case that actually I'm overrating myself, and therefore, try to find new and new reasons to support my theory about him being town, while he acts otherwise?

(Note: while these questions are intended to be rhetorical questions, that are concerning to me, but, if you think that you have an answer for them, still feel free to add your thoughts on them.)

[++--]

@++-- - I've seen scum hardcore white knight a partner before. It's a super gutsy strategy, but it can work if it isn't used too frequently within a group of players. I'm not saying I think EW + HI is the scum team; however, I wouldn't completely dismiss it from evaluation based upon that super hardcore defense.

That's actually a good point, thank you.

@++--
I have no reason to change my reads on the game when I haven't been proven wrong yet. How do you propose to account for the other 25% of the cases? The only way I know how is to first go with the 75% while we have mislynches available and if that proves to be wrong then re-evaluate.

Drixx flipping reads on me like crazy does not ping you?

So... what you're saying is that you're sticking with your reads unless your scumread actually flips town? That's strange... Also, about the cases: IDK, your approach could be right. But: 1. "scum splits" wasn't the only assumption you made 2. I think that if it doesn't take very much energy to account for, say, 20% more cases, you should do it.

No, flipping reads doesn't ping me. If you've been reading my readlists, the only slot on which my read hasn't changed throughout the game is yours as town. For every other, it did. Why? Because that's how I play - constantly changing reads based on the new available information - sure enough, that results in lots of false accusations, but, in the end, gets the right result often. Why am I talking about my play instead of Drixx's? It's to illustrate. I don't know how Drixx plays. Maybe his playstyle is also this. Maybe he's an opportunistic scum.

Actually, you two going against eachother is quite an interesting case, so I'll evaluate it a bit more. Let's start with the case in which one of you is scum. Could it be Drixx? It very well could be: (assuming that HI is town), he might have just seen that there is willingness to lynch copper - who is a strong player, and therefore determines the way the game goes to a great extent. Also, a person who's previously voted him, so a possible threat. And, finally, not one of the obvious lynches - usually, players, when somebody pushes a lynch through on a non-obvious scumread, get a townread for not trying to lynch the obvious, even if this is a ridiculous thing. Could it be copper? Yes, sure: what we have here is a player who's been on all major wagons so far (Drixx first, then followed by EW, finally switching to mallow, and in D2, got to the EW wagon again, hoping to get EW lynched) and influences the game very heavily. But... what if this is not the case. First of all, from all I know, it might as well be a bus. Strange, sure... but if one of you manages to get the other lynched, probably noone will raise any suspicions towards that player. And, finally, and this is what my readlist (maybe wrongly, I don't know) said: what if we have two townies going heavily against eachother? This happens quite often. How could this be? Easily: Drixx is obviously enough an active, experienced-somewhere-else player, who, just like copper, likes to have a great influence. And, because of different reasons, every player, except from them, had a decreased activity. What does that mean? Those two players will spend multiple days, and a huge number of posts, responding to eachother. And, of course, they have different opinions. What do we get from this? Two players, opposing eachother. And now to this situation, add that one (copper) scumread the other (Drixx) previously... and here we have a "perfect" situation, in which scum doesn't even have to do anything, just sit back and relax, while two townies are trying to get eachother lynched, just because they disagreed with eachother about one or two things in the beginning, but, having noone else to talk with, in the end, disagreed with everyone.

I'm not saying that it's impossible that exactly one of you is scum. It's very well possible. If that's the case, I'd lean towards Drixx being that player. But, and here is an important point... I like to see the complete picture. Cases that you didn't think of. Sure enough, FYPOV, half of the cases (that is, where you are scum) are nonsense if you're town (and if you're scum, the so-called "reads" aren't anything else than creative bullshitting), but you still have managed to make an assumption, which is, that if two players end up basically tunnelling eachother, one of them is scum. Maybe that's the case. Maybe not. For me, even the least possible of these cases (that is, that this whole thing is a well-constructed bus) is significant enough. Probably, even if you were just reading the game, instead of playing it, therefore, had no knowledge about the alignment of "copper", you still wouldn't consider "copper" and Drixx bussing eachother. Just like you didn't consider scum not splitting.

(Preview edit:)

If you do not lynch EW in the next 24 hours you should not be allowed outside without adult supervision.

You're ridiculously overrating your skills. While my main FoS IS EW, this "omgjustlynchEWyoudumbidiots" attitude is just plain stupid.

If you geniuses manage to lynch me and after I flip town you will lynch Epic Warrior.

OMFG YOU MANAGED TO BECOME EVEN MORE ARROGANT, CONGRATULATIONS! So... as we all know, EW is my main scumread, and I'm voting him for a long time now. And, copper is my biggest townread by far. Therefore, I absolutely disagree with the copper-lynch. But... if you're trying to say that if the copper-lynch goes through and you're town, we should blindly follow your leads at LYLO? ARE YOU FUCKING KIDDING ME? THIS IS NOT HOW YOU PLAY. THIS IS NEVER GOING TO HAPPEN (I hope, at least), because LYLO isn't the time for "omg, just blindly follow reads", capisce? If you're town, I really hope you're joking... if not, I really hope I'll never be in the same game as you ever again. (If you're scum, this is a well-constructed WIFOM, and the previous statement doesn't hold, obviously.)

Anyway. If you're going to get lynched, it's your fault. You shouldn't make so many assumptions, and you shouldn't be this arrogant.

[++--]

Shit, I misformatted the quote in my previous post, and forgot to preview... Obviously enough, it's

If you geniuses manage to lynch me and after I flip town you will lynch Epic Warrior.

[++--]

Maybe it's true arrogance, but, to use your words... "I don't give A FUCK about how arrogant you think I am". Also, no, I'm not considering every case. But I don't make assumptions that disregard a 25% case.

[++--]

Reagarding scumteams being ballsy and obvious, if EW is scum this game this is a special situation, you do not survive in this setup if your teammate gets lynched D1 so you have to defend him, if you are looking for a teammate of his the connection is going to be obvious, I also may have underestimated this point when looking at what I believed to be the more indirect deflection from Drixx rather than the more blatant approach HI took.

But the great question is... would it be so obvious that HI would actually instruct EW about what to do (#357), or even "EW is being wrongly lynched. Fuck this" in #359? I'm not saying that EW can't be scum, but, I don't think these contribute too much to him being scum. However, these very well could be a case for HI being scum - as HI basically saved EW from getting lynched, and gave him instructions, etc., it's basically guaranteed that town_EW wouldn't vote HI... possibly ever, as, if you look at his readlist, who did he townread? Exactly, HI. So... both an EW_town and an EW_scum match a HI_scum theory. And, also, I'm fairly certain that, if, HI is scum, both copper and Drixx are town, since, HI posted a good amount of small, kind of useless posts in the beginning of D2, therefore proving to be active... but, these weren't really directed into the core discussion. Now, since, if two players end up discussing with basically only eachother for quite a long period of time, they'll inevitably end up scumreading eachother, if either of them was scum and HI is scum, HI would have been more active in order to prevent this.

Right now, because of these, my intuition says that actually, a HI lynch would be more beneficial than an EW lynch, since it narrows the possibilities more, and HI is nearly equally likely to be scum as EW, I'd say. However, I have to go now, so I can't do a thorough analysis now, but I will, whenever I come back later today (which means: in a few hours). Until then...

UNVOTE: Epic Warrior

[++--]

@++--
Why does HI_scum go to such lengths to WK EW_town?

A HI_scum could, in fect, benefit multiple ways from WKing EW_town. First of all, even if EW_town gets lynched, a HI_scum could possibly benefit from the simple fact that, EW_town was, in fact town, as EW_town was scumread by the majority of the players, but not HI_scum, therefore, with only a little bit of well-constructed manipulation (which could, for example, be some sort of a subtle mention of the correctness of the read), at least a few players can be manipulated into the belief that HI's reads are better than other players', and, as such, should be considered more important, thus, HI_scum could reach a significant level of influence. On the other hand, if EW_town doesn't get lynched, HI_scum would proceed with NOT killing EW_town, which gives multiple benefits for HI_scum:

1. EW, as, being the noobiest of all the players, is, in fact, likely to townread the WKer... and it did happen just as we witnessed, therefore, one less vote, and some possible defense from EW if HI_scum is being lynched

2. EW wasn't very active. For scum, the most beneficial is to convince town to lynch a more useful townie as: a) in the beginning, town mislynches more easily, therefore, this is the perfect opportunity for that; b) less active towns likely have worse reads; and c) a lurker, who, even when posting, doesn't post very usefully, can, in fact, be much more easily lynched by town later on (possibly even without scum participation!) than an active one

3. if HI is scum, and EW is town, EW_town was scumread by the most townies, and, probably, the most common #1 scumread. What does this mean during the night? Exactly: investigative roles will probably check EW, and not a scum. Definitely a benefit for a HI_scum.

[++--]

Definitely no intent to hammer on copper from me.

VOTE: Hostile Intent as I think HI is as likely maf as EW, and HI flipping scum narrows the game down more, while there isn't a significant difference in the possible amount of cases if either flips town.

[++--]

Hmmm, I think my sentence possibly makes no sense (it did in my head), so, the reasoning, more clearly, and one extra thing added (which I have just realised)...

1. I find HI equally scummy to EW
2. if HI is maf, partner is either Drixx or EW
3. if EW is maf, partner could be Drixx, HI and singer
4. if HI is town, we don't have a lot to go on, still lots of possibilities... but another person, who was BWed on, resulting in {Drixx, EW, mallow, copper, HI} having been already BWed on
5. if EW is town, we, again, don't have a lot to go on and still lots of possibilities, and even less people who a BW was on with {Drixx, EW, mallow, copper} as the set, so maybe even less to go on than a HI lynch

[++--]

@++--
Why is HI/Singer not a consideration for you?

Actually... I don't remember. I think I had a reason for it, but I absolutely forgot what it was. Whenever I'll have a bit more time, I'll reread to see what made me not consider that as a team.

And, are we not all trying to survive? If I've said little it's because there's little to say. I can do my scumhunting by watching the game, not by forcing reactions.

Hm... Even though EW is usually very scummy, this post basically screams "newbtown". IDK what to think anymore.

[++--]

@Hostile Intent
What made you suddenly see EW as scum?

[++--]

@JasonWazza

if you're basically refusing to play (because that's what you're doing), why're you not asking for a replacement, why do you instead do these prod dodges and shit like that?!

[++--]

^ Was hard to read, so here.

Just going to give some quick reads first, and I'll explain them at a later time.

Epic Warrior - town. I believe he accidentally is trust telling, and I don't see how people aren't seeing it.

Hostile Intent - town. I liked her debacle about voting Cabd, and then backing off because she thought it was dumb. Cabd is always inherently scummy to me, and I always get confused and worried with games with him. I also liked her asking Drixx about the color of the role pm.

Drixx - scum. God damn, this guy has tons of fluff that I could go on for days. Also, he hasn't really done anything other than vote for two seemingly easy targets, and the person I think his partner is.

++-- - null as hell. I like a lot of the things he's done, but I can see a lot of it from a scum perspective.

copper223 - town. I've liked everything he's been doing for the most part. I don't necessarily agree with him on everything, but he's very actively scum hunting.

singersigner - my strongest scum read. opportunistic, manipulating the conversation how she wants, in a way that she can play the fake clueless townie. Her posts about Cabd are fake as hell, and nothing really is coming off as genuine for me.

Weren't there, however, also lots of opportunistic actions from HI? Because I'd say there were, as stated already. Also, could you please elaborate on the singer manipulating the conversation stuff? I don't really see it... (your later explanations didn't exactly show this point, either).

Also, I'm going to go out of my way, because I believe it's pretty obvious that I'm town, and I'm

most likely

going to be killed toNight.

So... you first start off with some good posts that actually provide another perspective and seem townie, and then you come with the - possibly - biggest LAMIST in history? WTF?

I love how defensive Drixx gets, though. It's actually rather amusing.

Exactly, his game is at least 80% defense. Alas, however, we have nothing meta to go on with in his case, so we can't know if it's how he naturally plays or a scumplay. If the latter, I feel that we're screwed, because so far, he's successfully managed to convince most of the players not to FoS him, including me.

[++--]

I still would prefer a HI lynch over an EW lynch, because:

- while having multiple different actions pointing to EW being scum (that is, lurking when not attacked, and generally useless posts), he had some posts pointing towards him being newbtown (especially the 'you play to survive' ones)... overall, he still is scummy, but way less scummy than the person who...
- posted when the Drixx-copper debate occured, BUT not relating to it, and basically making them FoS eachother; WKed EW, which, as I have explained, is useful for HI_scum in both of the cases (EW_scum, EW_town), and I don't really see a THAT hardcore WK coming from a townie
- and finally, I'd say that a HI flip would be more useful than an EW flip, because, while I was wrong about my potential scumteams in #649 as copper pointed out in the next post, I still think that the fact that another person had a wagon on gives more ideas about potential scum... and, also, HI is scummier than EW (just before someone would reply "let's lynch [someone else] because that also adds another wagon".

That being said, if I can't manage to convince people about HI, I'm okay with an EW lynch, too.

[++--]

(I'll give analysis of this kill, a new readlist, and reactions to anything written until then in 20 to 48 hours. I'm writing this here just to let everyone know. Probably not that much of time to be worth mentioning, but I still do, just to make sure noone calls me inactive or something.)

In the meanwhile, one question.

@Boon why did you vote and unvote in 7 minutes, and, why did you vote this fast at LYLO? I mean, probably 7 minutes wouldn't have been enough time for both scum to hammer, but, also, not enough time to reaction test (if that's what you wanted), no?

[++--]

Just some thoughts, because I'm quite busy IRL (and will be for two and a half more days, so expect fairly low, but some activity from me):

1. Why did copper die? Nearly all his theories were based on EW being scum. EW flipped town. So, basically, copper, if alive, would have been forced to reconsider the entire case. Either mafia had something they meta-know copper would've noticed when reconsidering, or was it simply that they didn't want this uncertainity?

2. I, in fact, give town points to Boon for all his mistakes (instant vote, not noticing me) people here give him scum points for. At this stage, scum probably exactly knows what's going on, and is willing to participate, I'd say. No?

3. Drixx, you're saying that you don't scumread singer anymore because... because nobody else considered that post scummy? Did anyone give you convincing reasons to reread, or, you just decided to sheep the majority?

4. Boon, you're saying "forgot singer had a partner" in #863, but you're saying that HI is scummier than singer in #860. Are you really that certain about those two people being scum, or why did you phrase it this way?

That's all for now. I don't think that enough "interesting" stuff happened for a new readlist, so that will happen whenever I'll have more time (provided that the game will be more active). I'm looking forward to the answers, and I hope my existence won't be forgotten again...

[++--]

Apparently, right now, my reads are going absolutely the other way as other people's reads. Anyway, my replies to the first two posts (replies to the later posts and an update of my reads in 1-2 hours, an analysis of the entire game so far in a few days, whenever I'll have time for that. Definitely this week, though.)

Copper's entire read on the game was EW and you as scum team HI, and he basically led us down that primrose path into LYLO. The only thing I think he was "better than us" at was taking it upon himself to keep the game actively running. If you want to beat yourself up because some random person thinks you're bad at mafia (the only complaint I have is you make such short posts and give so little to read, which is actually a valid and fairly good meta to adopt), you can do that; however, I don't see any reason for you to. Copper wasn't better than us ... he was just more persistent in pushing his views.

I don't really see the purpose of this paragraph, unless, of course, you haven't read my post. I asked that what could be the motivation behind killing copper while it doesn't really seem logical, and to that, HI said a theory. Now, instead of reflecting to the theory, you just started to explain how scum was wrong about this belief. I don't like this. The second paragraph (not quoted here) is an actual answer, I'm okay with that. But this seems weird. I don't even exactly know what feels weird about it (I mean, I've pointed out something that does, but definitely not THE thing), but something does.

So here's what I think. I think Boonskiies replaced into a scum slot that had pressure on it (but only really because of inactivity). He saw the pressure was just because of inactivity so he threw out a bunch of stuff and went hyperactive and the wagon went back to EW. That kept him alive in the short term, but now that it's time to play for real, he doesn't seem interested. He messed up in twilight of day 2, I think. He wanted to be sure to get in posts being

sure

that EW was scum before the flip, even though prior to that he was arguing a scum team of Singer and me (or possibly ++-- or HI, if you look at his VCA post). Why was he suddenly so sure? That post he quoted from EW looked like a very excellent post by a townie in the twilight before he's being lynched. EW gave his thoughts and did his job even though we were mislynching him. Why did Boonskiies feel the need to suddenly swap his opinion and get on the record as being sure of EW's guilt? At first read, that looks super townie, but I think it was intentionally put there to look townie.

Boonskiies then came into today completely opposite of how he ended yesterday. He's saying almost nothing, except to throw out a town read on me, and mis-identify the game state as MYLO. He said he used it wrongly, not that he made a mistake. He appeared to realize that this could be read as an admission that he purposefully used the wrong term and threw up that bizarre post 863 where he says he forgot there were 2 mafia (throwing out his assertion that Singer is scum because he refuses to do anything at all to persuade anyone that it is so) and that he forgot ++-- existed.

I'd say that it is quite natural to be way more active when replacing in, than later, after the game progresses. This can also explain the "Why was he suddenly so sure?" part. He had lots of posts to go with, and to analyze them, and he himself said that he really wanted to get into this game, so probably, if town, did the analysis before. However, while being more active suddenly after replacing in IS natural, this decline in his activity might not be right. Still not enough for a scumread, especially since scum wouldn't make the MYLO-mistake, unless intentionally put there to appear town-ish, as right now, they have the bigger chance, and, therefore, will probably pay attention as much as possible, even if only lurking.

The problem I have is that other than the weak theory I recently point out about him/HI being scum buddies, I don't really see a strong connection between him and anyone else in the game. I think HI has been fairly opportunistic in his pushes, but there's not really any scum motivation in defending EW on D1 to push yet another mislynch on mallow, unless his buddy was already on the wagon.

You say that this is a problem, from which I assume that you consider this to somehow undermine your theory, while, in fact, if you have solid reasons for Boon being scum, this could reinforce it, as the lack of interactions is usually scum-indicative.

Your VCA later this post seems quite decent, if we assume that the split theory is true. However, the reason you're townreading me is quite weak (but if we only look at the votes, it's probably the best you can get), based on which I'd also say that your scumreads probably aren't a lot more reasoned, either. I'm pretty sure that I could find better reasons for anyone, even my scumreads, being town than this.

[++--]

As promised, part 2.

Day 1 we ended up with two wagons specifically because there was some suggestion to form a 2nd possible wagon so as not to end up with a no-lynch, and Mallowgeno was super inactive and became the default "off-wagon". Without that suggestion, I think it's very probable that EW would have been lynched on day 1, and lots of votes that swapped around would have been in different places.

While this might be true, I still don't think that singer's analysis is useless, actually, is quite useful, because, assuming the scum splits theory is true (which, in fact, I'm not sure about), it actually might provide more insight than without that off-wagon. However, your later two paragraphs actually provide good points where the VCA could go wrong (FYPOV, at least, since, obviously enough, for me the "so what if scum were 2 of the first 3 on EW's wagon on day 1" part is obviously false). I wouldn't rely on a VCA as a main point, but I still think it might be one of the more useful techniques.

My read list atm:

Your readlist doesn't really make sense right now. From what I gather, you have two townreads (of which one would be a scumread elsewhere, but not here), a nullread and a certain scumread. If this is the case, shouldn't I be a scumread, or one of the townreads be a nullread for this whole thing to make sense?

Does your reply to 870 imply that you think Singer is potentially right about a Boonskiies/HI pairing?

There is a good chance, but I wouldn't say it is the most likely possibility.

Readlist next post.

[++--]

So, first of all, I apologise for the fact that in this readlist, I only take the most recent, and some of the major past events into account. Later on, probably Friday or Saturday, I'll reread the entire game, paying attention to small details, too, in hope of noticing something that nobody did, or, at least, I didn't. This will happen only then because that's when I'll have enough time. So, my right now readlist goes as such:

singersigner

- very likely to be town. Her analysis is useful, and, in general, a very townie-ish play. No strange, sudden turn in reads, and nothing opportunistic. If scum, absolutely hats off to singer. But I find that very unlikely. Especially since her play is getting better and better throughout the game. Chance of being scum: 20%.

Boonskiies

- town-leaning null. I'll make this a long post, with some of the possible factors making him less likely. There are some points which make him seem scummy:

1. This whole sudden realisation thing about EW being scum (and then flipping town) and Drixx being town and HI being scum

2. The really fast decline in his activity

There are quite a few points pointing towards him being town, too, namely:

1. from my point of view, his most likely partner would be HI, as both singer and Drixx push a lynch on him quite a lot, and, BUT, even if at different points of the game, they did basically exactly the same to EW (that is, a sudden turn from WKing to scumreading), which makes this pairing, in fact, appear strange, as more often than not, the two scum players, even if their natural playstyle is similar, try to adopt different playstyles. Also, look at HI today. If they are a team, what would HI do? Possibly, either try to defend him (risky), or, more likely, do some sort of an attack against Boon and me, calling us the likely scumteam, and trying to get me lynched. If it is successful, they would win, while if unsuccessful, HI could still quite possibly blame it on me. But this inactivity doesn't add up.

2. as I've already mentioned, his mistakes at the beginning of the day make him seem townie to me - most probably, scum wouldn't fail like that, nor would do that intentionally (as, if this was the case, it backfired really much)

Not looking at the interactions, he could be quite likely as scum, but this actually decreases the chance quite a bit. Don't get me wrong, there still is a good chance of him being scum, but since lots of arguments were said for that statement, and none against, I added some. Chance of being scum: 45%.

Drixx

- scum-leaning null. While I like most of his posts, they could also easily be seen as opportunistic, especially since his views usually went with the general public's opinion, so it could very well be a townie-ish disguise of a scum (quite well done, I might add). Especially makes sense with HI's play today. Chance of being scum: 55%.

Hostile Intent

- I've already made a case against HI yesterday and I already mentioned in this post how HI's play today could also be explained with scum motivation. Chance of being scum: 80%.

General remark

- my reads could absolutely go wrong as I already have the preconception of HI being very likely scum. That's why I'll do an entire reread Friday/Saturday, in which I'll try to get entirely new reads, without any preconception, even though I'll possibly get similar results

[++--]

Voting analysis never, I repeat, never made HI likely town. I also "like" how you mention voting analysis in the first place, then instantly mention you're skeptical of it, and then proceed to give a scumread on me, contradictory both to the "beloved" voting analysis and your skepticism.

If you're not trying to figure out scum by trying to look out how scum might play, what the heck are you going to do, exactly? Look up in the sky and hope to see some signals or what?

I agree with your point about intentional mistakes, but I find it likely.

While refusing to explain a case is an indicator, but not a major one. Well, at least, not at LYLO, when we've already gathered lots of other to go on (that is, interactions, kills, possible subtle details, activity etc.). The major reason here is the sudden lack of activity.

Subjective arguments and WIFOM... where in the world can't you say that to LITERALLY anything? My first point absolutely made sense, and so did the second, but you gave a good counterargument for it. Since when is bringing up counterarguments qualify as "attempting to stall the game"? Also, if you haven't noticed so far, I brought up counterarguments for scumreads quite often (including you and copper cross-scumreading eachother), and was even accused of chainsawing Cabd. Just saying.

Let's make it a 60 - 40 instead.

[++--]

Well, apparently, not much happened since my last post, which is quite sad. Anyway, I'm tired now, so I'll respond to your post tomorrow. Or in other words, this post is half prod-dodge half please-make-the-thread-more-active.

[++--]

Ok, I agree with your first paragraph. I didn't really have time to think stuff through so I basically wrote down whatever came to my mind, normally I don't do such fallacies. Your second paragraph, however, doesn't really make sense since obviously enough, not everyone has free time always, also, I never said I'll be completely inactive, I said I'll be *less* active (or at least that's what I intended to say). This "pretty obvious" still isn't really obvious to me, I'll reread it again and try to convince me that it is indeed pretty obvious. Also, trying to figure out how scum might play is basically the way you called "Logical", so it isn't logical (pun intended) for you to say that my approach was wrong. Again, it might have included fallacies (basically everything I posted D3 was written in a hurry), but you basically admitted that this approach is working, unless I really misunderstood your post. Also, I'm not really understanding how you reached to the conclusion of my post being really townie if basically you criticised everything about it, and my post before that, in fact, resulted in you somewhat FoSing me. And finally, just like singer, I'd like to disagree with the all 4 people need to agree approach. I'm not saying that if only 3 people agree, it's better, but it can make it lynchworthy, though.

[++--]

(#898 is a reply to Drixx. Just in case it wasn't obvious, which I really doubt, BTW.)

[++--]

Just a short note: I have started rereading, but it's quite a lot of work and I don't really have more time today, so I'll publish my new readlist tomorrow.

[++--]

(Strange stream of probably incomprehensible thoughts incoming.) Also, to be honest, I absolutely couldn't get myself to read walls of texts, so if I encountered those, I just randomly read into them, so my new read on Drixx might be the most inaccurate.

Holy shit, my memory apparently is absolutely wrong as a HI-Drixx team is basically absolutely unlikely, as HI was one of the main proponents of a lynch on Drixx D1. That is, basically, my entire theory is invalid. Also, one of the major scumtells, namely, the "I hate this IDGAF" can be seen from both HI and Boon, which makes decision harder. Also, in retrospect, Jason (Boon's predecessor) was more opportunistic than what I remembered. However, both Drixx and singer FOSed him Boon early at LYLO, while HI has just started a lynch on him, which makes it (FMPOV) that if Boon is indeed maf, there is some sort of a bussing going on, most probably with HI. The N1 kill isn't particularly helpful in the case as he didn't really have any updated reads, however, had a hint even after his readlist that Drixx might be scum (even though wrong about copper) - #483, also, scumreading Drixx's slot, so, if anything, Drixx gets scumpoints for this. Apart from this, the most probable reason is that mafia thought Cabd is a PR (which is true), since noone in this game seems to have killed the IC for being the IC. HI's posts are quite useless and short, but numerous, except when the copper-Drixx debate was ongoing. At the same time though, HI and Drixx voted together on copper... Also, Drixx made a case against basically everyone quite early on in the game, just as if he was testing the willingness to lynch certain people. Also, had inconsistencies within a short amount of time for example, his read on me in #622), but at the same time, is consistent even in minor details throughout the game (for example, one thing I particularly noticed is he has said the exact same way of him scumhunting in #256 as quite recently). Around the Drixx-copper debate, Jason was entirely inactive, singer basically pointing out minor things, and HI continued to do the cryptic posts. Nearly right after I asked Jason about whether shouldn't he replace it, he did so, I'm not really sure what to think about that. At the same time, though, his reasoning he added didn't really seem particularly convincing, so maybe a some scumpoints for it? Boon's #711 readlist changed very fast, after only a really small amount of interaction. I don't get what Boon meant to do with #736 - I don't really see the use of it from a town perspecitve, but would someone fake-townslip that hard? singer's #740 contained a LAMIST, which has already occured quite a few times (even in the beginning there was something like an 'I'm pretty townie' or something, I'm too lazy to look back for number). #752, HI states that Boon is town with high certainity, however, now, HI started a lynch on Boon.Even #811 has Boon as definite townie. By #824, Boon flipped reads on Ew... I'm wondering though what this whole replacement thing was by HI... A thing, that makes a Boon-HI team less likely though is that their playstyle is VERY similar...

TL;DR right now, I'm thinking that a Boon-HI team is quite likely, but I'm definitely not anywhere near sure enough to vote.

[++--]

Boon is flipping reads like crazy. I don't like that.

Anyway, what's strange to me is that HI basically did the same vote-unvote thing as Boon did. They play nearly exactly the same. Maybe I was wrong the whole time and it's Drixx and singer? But then singer could have hammered... So it's either Drixx+HI or singer+Boon fmpov, unless something is very strange. But... neither really makes sense... I don't really get what's happening now because LITERALLY EVERYTHING points towards me being scum (if looking from a neutral perspective) and I'm not... asdasdasd

[++--]

Someone's acting absolutely counterintuitively here, because none of the possible scumteams make sense. But, indeed, Boon is right about me not having the chance to hammer him, that is, basically, normally, I'd be confirmed scum if Boon is town. My main problem is, though, that I'm (fmpov obviously) not scum, and I'm not that sure about Boon, either. I mean, right now, I find him more likely to be scum than not, but I'm not that sure.... So: is there a chance that a scum is acting against what they should normally do, and, instead of hammering, prolongs the game for some sort of a weird reason?

[++--]

If it is, in fact, Drixx and HI, it means that there was quite a bit of bus between them (or their slots, IDK right now, I'm tired and not 100% sober right now) basically in the beginning, which would have been quite risky. However, Boon's most recent actions don't really seem to be scummy, but, in fact, quite logical based on the facts that he has. Really, scum wouldn't really give up like that unless they were so sure that their partner is able to win alone - when it means it's either singer or Drixx, because both HI and me could, in fact, be scummy because of our interactions with Boon. Also, Boon's predecessor had quite a case against singer, so... that'd mean Boon+Drixx. However, if Boon isn't scum, which I find more and more likely when I think about it, if it isn't the HI-Drixx team, which I find quite likely because of reasons already stated, it's singer with either Drixx or HI. But that would be really, really sick... But then again, Boon is absolutely not acting like how I would expect scum to act. So, the ultimate question is: who is acting totally against my expectations?

[++--]

If it is, in fact, Drixx and HI, it means that there was quite a bit of bus between them (or their slots, IDK right now, I'm tired and not 100% sober right now) basically in the beginning, which would have been quite risky. However, Boon's most recent actions don't really seem to be scummy, but, in fact, quite logical based on the facts that he has. Really, scum wouldn't really give up like that unless they were so sure that their partner is able to win alone - when it means it's either singer or Drixx, because both HI and me could, in fact, be scummy because of our interactions with Boon. Also, Boon's predecessor had quite a case against singer, so... that'd mean Boon+Drixx. However, if Boon isn't scum, which I find more and more likely when I think about it, if it isn't the HI-Drixx team, which I find quite likely because of reasons already stated, it's singer with either Drixx or HI. But that would be really, really sick... But then again, Boon is absolutely not acting like how I would expect scum to act. So, the ultimate question is: who is acting totally against my expectations?

Uh...what?

What I'm saying is that... I don't really see any scumteams that match my expectations about what scum would do.

@++--, who do you find scummier or more likely to be scum, Hostile or Drixx?

I don't know, actually. Up until recently, I was quite sure about HI being scum but I find it quite hard to make sense out of these recent events, right now basically I feel like everything I thought about the game previously seems to be wrong. So, first, I'm trying to find a sensible solution for what the truth may be...

[++--]

@++--, who do you find scummier or more likely to be scum, Hostile or Drixx?

The more I think about it, the more likely I find it to be both of them being maf, with some sort of a weird-ass bus from d1.

[++--]

Drixx, why the hell are you so certain about Boon being scum? I mean, I'm less certain than you while fmpov, purely based on VCA, Boon would be very likely while FYPOV that isn't even that likely...

[++--]

If you're not defending yourself because you're scummy when you're defensive, you should remember that you'll never get better (aka less scummy) in defense if you don't practice it.

[++--]

Now, for a second, let's assume that Boon is scum and gets lynched. Even in this case, I would doubt singer being scum for the following reasons: 1. early on in the game, Jason, Boon's predecessor had a half-assed case against singer 2. I pretty much doubt that singer would basically lead a lynch against her partner just to later not hammer it when could have done so easily. I'd say that if Boon is indeed scum, it's either you or Drixx, however, based on the fact that you are actually actively lynching Boon, while Drixx isn't, my bet right now would be a Boon-Drixx partnership. But this part is pretty much the future. Anyway, the more I think about it, the scummier Boon is, but at the same time, I'm freaked out by the possibility of screwing up with a mislynch :/

[++--]

(Which is quite strange, actually. Normally, I don't really freak out at LYLOs. Probably it's because I'm new to the site so I really don't want to do something ridiculously stupid.)

[++--]

VOTE: Boonskiies whatever, let it happen and hope for the best.

[++--]

Nah, don't say that it's mean. But this delay though... omg

[++--]

Yep, it's quite a bad thing to wait. (Also, sorry if I don't get what a post was intented to be instantly, I feel like I'm slightly braindead today. :/ )

[++--]

I'm totally surprised that I managed to survive today and Boon got lynched, because the fact that I wasn't here when I should have been made the Drixx&me scumteam awfully likely. Also, I was stupid when I forgot that Drixx voted and if he wasn't here then, I would have screwed up that, too. Basically, the last around 24 hours of D3 went absolutely shit for me, and I think that if this lasted for a few more hours, I would have screwed it up entirely. I'm glad it didn't happen.

@Boon you basically listed every possible pair as a scumteam so it wasn't too much of an achievement for you to get it right once...

[++--]

So, some more thoughts about the game.

1. Drixx was a really good scum partner to play with. I think that he carried us throughout the game, quite successfully, I must say. Really good skills. A great player, well done.

2. copper is quite a good player, and a good opponent. Great townplay, but a bit arrogant. Very logical thinking, absolutely well played.

3. singer was quite close to making it a town victory, I'd say. Even in the beginning, it was quite obvious that singer is a strong player (that's why I tried to get singer lynched for quite a big proportion of D1, with not very viable reasons, actually). Not rushing the lynches was quite a good idea. In the beginning, even as a townie, I wouldn't have agreed with some of her opinions (for example, readlists being antitown), but this play was quite convincing that I was wrong.

4. Epic Warrior started quite weakly, but in the end, did fairly well. Quite a promising tendency.

5. Hostile Intent's short posts were actually way more useful than what they would seem like. Had good thoughts about the game, the only problem being that this playstyle could easily be mistaken with a scum playstyle.

6. Boonskiies managed to get it right in the end (I know that I said that he basically guessed everything, but he still did), which, I must say, proves that his play is quite skillful. Also, I'd say that I personally considered his playstyle very townie-ish throughout the whole game, but I can see why others didn't.

Because of their early deaths, I cannot say much about Cabd or mallowgeno.

Since Drixx asked about it, some thoughts about D3. So, I would say that the fact that Boon's playstyle is something that might as well be considered scummy helped us a lot, but overall, I'm more thankful to the really, really good play of Drixx. I made a mistake, that the plan I improvised in the beginning didn't really account for the case that I could have hammered if I was here, but I wasn't, which nearly made the entire strategy collapse. The main motivation behind my play was that while I usually get townreads (as it can be seen in this game, too), if I get scumread, my reactions are absolutely shit (both as town and scum, in fact), so I tried to avoid that without getting Drixx lynched, which resulted in me slightly bussing Drixx, while somewhat defending Boon in the beginning. However, I didn't realise that the scum teams that are most likely after HI and Drixx voting Boon, singer not doing so, and me not having the ability to do so are entirely different from the scum teams my play was about to imply, which made me slightly panic, as you can see. It is too recent right now to check (for myself, at least), if I was consistent in the end, too, but my guess would be that I wasn't. That being said, Drixx's good reactions saved me from having to bus more (oh, that would have sucked) while maintaining the main FoS on Boon, and giving me good reasons to "reconsider" my "reads", so, well done, I must say. Also, these mistakes pointed out to quite a decent amount of areas in which I could improve, so this game was useful for that, too. (Alas, my playstyle was very similar to my style in realtime/"marathon" games, which I'm used to, in which, these sorts of "am I here to hammer?" problems don't arise, obviously.)

And finally, thanks to toolenduso for modding very well!