Newbie 436 - Killings in Kerplunkville - GAME OVER
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Thanks Elias for pointing that: I can only check this forum during some hours and not daily, that's why I made my vote and apparently I haven't done much.
Well, about Cicero's statement... Youcouldbe lying. Why? Even if we lynched you one day, finding out the truth about your role wouldn't change a thing. Butif you were scum, you could hide under that statement hoping that we trusted you. I'm just pointing my ideas.
I can tell you (and you can check in the queue) This is my very first game. But i think in games like these it's a minor question, because it's about how you react in front of others with the available info and that you don't learn just from playing. Now, scum strategies could be anything, from voting for each other to no lynching.
And following Rime and pwayne's last post:
UNVOTE
VOTE: Rime Ice Fury
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PS: great idea Rime! Now you may call me Andy "Babekiller" SpaghettiPlanning: Katamari Damacy Mafia - Less than 50% done!
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I think all newbie gamesmustdistribute the roles at random, otherwise it would be very easy to spot the scum (just checking who's the "oldest" player here. Also, as a newbie in Mafia games, I think that is better to learn by yourself, so If I were a mod, I wouldn't see any trouble in making the newbies scum players. You must learn by trial-and-error, and anyway you must be scum sometime, why not in your first games?
Also what Elias said is basic (at least I think so): the scum would be VERY stupid to begin confounding everyone on purpose in the first days, that would make them look suspicious from the very beginning.
WARNING: N00b Question: Does the day end automatically when we have a lynch? If we don't decide a lynch in some time, how long does a day phase lasts?Planning: Katamari Damacy Mafia - Less than 50% done!
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@Pwayne: Thanks for the answer. About your thoughts:
1) I partly agree with Cicero here, tough I see him playing nice (paranoia is also part of this game, isn't it? You can trust anyone or no one)
2) Maybe Flay DID wanted an early lynch. Maybe he just voted Cicero to warn him on doing paranoic votes.
3) I'm not good for philosophy, all I know about kant is that he was a philosopher.Planning: Katamari Damacy Mafia - Less than 50% done!
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Andycyca "Babekiller" Spaghetti
Talking about paranoia... Cicero may claim he's playing paranoid because he is townie. However, we all are a bit paranoid in mafia, so screaming "I'm townie" would only make other paranoid players suspect of you. I think there have to be cleverer strategies rather than pointing oneself as "good guy"
For the Ic's here: this kind of discussions are "normal" ? I hope so, I never thought being suspicious could be this fun!
ciceroheadonastick, which point of Elias are you talking about?
Nice name Mr. Hairapist!Planning: Katamari Damacy Mafia - Less than 50% done!
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The "cop" strategy wouldn't work, simply because townies can't tell who is the real cop (as communication outside this post is only available for scum at night) So if I see 6 posts of 6 different people, I would think:
As townie: Who the __ is the REAL cop? (assuming we already know without a doubt that there is actually a cop.
As Scum: You already told it: scum can easily blend into this and can easily spot potential cop, doc and townies. And that's just one of the many many scum strategies that could be used against the Town.
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Maybe Pwayne is being stopped by some posts with useless blabber. I think talking about the game itself is useful for learning, but not for advancing in the game. You know what could be? Instead of stating your role, sharing some thoughts, for example:
Pwayne stated that a clever townie would ask for some logic, and RIF said the basic point: scum will act like townie, thus will be acting logically to appear being townie. With these two toughts one may think of pwayne as scum, because he's pointing the rational thoughs to us all to follow, and that could be a scum misleading the town. On the other hand, he could be simply a nice townie and IC at the same time, helping us newbies understand the game.
This is a thought about how someone plays, not about the game itself. Maybe this is what we're after...Planning: Katamari Damacy Mafia - Less than 50% done!
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Seems so, Mr . Wafflator. But we now know that Cicero is a lawyer, so its possible that he's using some "trial strategies" (sorry, I don't know how to translate it correctly to english) such as emotional posts hoping that some info leaks.Mr. Flay wrote:Unvote...but cicero now strikes me as "anxious townie" rather than "anxious scum".Planning: Katamari Damacy Mafia - Less than 50% done!
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I never meant that any profession is cause for suspicion. What I meant is that a possible (tough not very good) strategy could be to post emotionally hoping that someone freaks out and lets out some thought or theory or whatever that may lead to find someones alignment/role. It works in the movies, and many times it works in the real world, maybe mafia is not an exception...Planning: Katamari Damacy Mafia - Less than 50% done!
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As I said before, my vote switch to RIF was only for sharing the votes more or less equally among the players, since the initial voting caused so much confusion, but now that we're getting into more talking, i have no problem toMr. Flay wrote:Andycyca:Switch of vote to Rime Ice Fury is very weird, I want more explanation on this one, since your tone implied you had some reason for it, but nothing I can see is obvious. Also believes Cicero is town implicitly, which is disturbing to me (only three players know anyone's alignment at present).UNVOTE
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[ Out of game ] About the bold phrase, I'm sorry, but I also attend to school and my career is very hard for me: I also have homework, lab work, and I'm looking for a nice part-time job. Take this the way you want it, I'm just saying that I don't have as much time for internet as the last week. I'm doing my analysis as deep as I can... but, as I'm sure many of you do, I'm keeping some for me only.[ /out]cicero wrote:Andycyca - well I have always had an uneasy feeling about him. Can't put my finger on it though. Maybe it's because he chastises me about just talking about the game rather than the players and then does a version of that himself. I certainly havent seen any deep analysis from him even though he seems to be demanding it from others. He just doesn't seem curious. Just like Rime. Even more than Rime,he pops in, says a few things, and then puts his head back down. ( While I'm on the subject of Andycyca - my blabber clearly has proved far from useless and forums are set up so you can do what you want regardless of useless blabber. But thanks for answering a rhetorical question. Why are you answering Pwayne's questions by the way? Is that a scumtell?) He also seems most neutral with respect to me. Which either means he's keeping is cards close OR he just doesn't know what to do.
Yes, I answered Pwayne's question. I just skipped writing that </sarcasm> tag. Besides, I never wrote that "useless blabber" was a reference to anyone's posts.
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For being fair, some gut feelings and thoughts:
1. Much of this started with Cicero's vote to me, getting me into -1 Lynch, but I can't blame him, as everyone here seemed to cast his/her first vote randomly, and maybe he was just trying to quicklynch. The other case would be that he suspected me based on my first post, which I highly doubt (it would confess scumness)
2. Pwayne seems to dislike cicero almost from the beginning, and maybe he's trying to convince us to lynch him, which could distract the Town from other things. Not that he's the only one suspicious of cicero, just the one I see is still posting about it frequently.
3. Flaymayhave done a mistake in counting the votes, and I think so. Why? Because even with the -1 Lynch over cicero's neck he would still need one more vote for cicero to disappear, and anyone at that point wouldn't vote to lynch (we saw it when I was at -1), so trying to lynch cicero at that time would either be a very rash and stupid action or just a miscount in the votes.
4. BTW Flay voted for me after I voted for him "For being opportunistic" I'm sorry, I never understood that.
5. I find Elias hasn't taken any "strong" sides yet, but commenting on other people's posts.Planning: Katamari Damacy Mafia - Less than 50% done!
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First of all, my replies:
@ Flay: I voted for RIF at that time just because I felt enough tension and I feared a lynch with the inicial excitement about my -1 situation. I changed my vote just because, I could have as well unvoted because at that time I had no evidence on anyone. Now that you asked for the reason on my vote for him I remembered that I still have no top in my scum list, so i simply unvoted until my suspicions lead strongly me to someone. Thanks for the explanation on your vote.
@ Quinn: thanks for the confidence. Just a question, How is it that I could be a burden later for being?
@Elias: I'm sorry if my post wasn't well written, I still have some trouble with english. What I meant is that I can't blame cicero for trying to quicklynch because he's a newbie (as well as I, so that reasoning could be my own mistake) I meant that cicerowouldhave cast his first vote based in either one of two strategies:
1. Trying to quicklynch in order to speed up the game
2. Trying to quicklynch me because he was suspicious of me based on my first post, which I doubt because that would only confess scumness.
@pwayne: Maybe what bothers you is that I haven't put any heavy suspicion on anybody, which is right because I haven't. I don't think I have enough info for pointing heavily on anyone.
@ RIF: seems it's stil a semantics issue. I'l try to explain my point of view of 066 more clearly:
As a townie, I cannot know for sure who is the real cop just by looking at 6 posts from 6 different people, assuming I have heavy proof that there IS actually a cop in this game. 6 people saying"I'm cop and i tell you, _____ is scum"is useless unless I already knew who the cop is. But I can't know who is without risking his security, as he can only speak through this thread.
If I were a Scum I could easily tell, based on those posts who is the real cop and who is not. Example: X and Y are scum and know each other. Any of them could read a post saying that Z is scum and therefore know that the poster is obviously not a cop, therefore is lying. Any of them could read a post sayingX is scumand assume that he's either a cop or a lucky townie. With enough fake posts from X and Y they could maybe point the Town in one direction during the day and kill the cop during night.
The only good point with this, now that I think of it, is that Scum wouldn't kill a cop that fast with this strategy without risking their identities, but we're sacrificing the cop there, unless he lied in his post, thus making his role completely useless for the Town and could lead townies to some WIFOM
(Hope I made myself clear. if not, please tell me and I'll try to explain again)
About the vote, I already said that my vote for Flay was random, and my vote for you was just for fear of another lynch. I unvotednowbecause that vote doesn't represent my thoughts at the present time, thus is an unfair vote. I know that Flay didn't asked me to, is just that I forgot to unvote until Flay noticed it.
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Quick note: It seemed that Quinnster Hairapist wanted Elias to remove his random vote (and guess who Elias is voting now...)Planning: Katamari Damacy Mafia - Less than 50% done!
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Two more things:
1. It seems I have some trouble making myself clear in written english. I repeat: I'll be glad to clarify whatever about my posts you didn't understood and answer any question.
2. I posted about cicero being a lawyer because he was my top scum at that time and I wanted to see how you would react to my theory. Indeed stupid theory.Planning: Katamari Damacy Mafia - Less than 50% done!
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@ Quinn: thanks for clarifying that.
@ cicero: however, saying that pwayne is scum based on another game is like guessing the coin toss after getting tails. I think that pwayne always plays this logically. It's suspicious, yeah, but not enough for Day 1
@ Mr Flay: I'm sorry, but I am always extremely polite in any new situation (like this forum, its members and Mafia games) Take it as a defense mechanism, if you want, it's just that I still don't know you very well. If I did, I would be more sarcastic or whatever, but I try to be polite because I don't want to hurt anyone with a misunderstood joke.
I'm finally building my scum top 6, but I'm starting from below. Quinn does look townie to me, as well as Cicero. RIF and Pwayne are still ticking me but maybe it's because of them suspicious of me. My prime suspicions are on Flay and Elias. Why? this may sound stupid, but it's more because they don't seem as much townie as the rest, yet I'll have to re-re-read the thread with this view for presenting my POV's proof.Planning: Katamari Damacy Mafia - Less than 50% done!
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@ cicero: Thanks for clarifying about pwayne! About 130, I agree with RIF in 133: it doesn't talk good about you and scum could be after you.
@ RIF: About 123, I only listed that as my suspicion chart, because, as I've already said, I'm not heavily convinced or evidenced towards anyone. Why would I do that chart? It's kinda scientific thought: You have no idea on X matter, and based on your first observations you propose a theory (sub-thesis) which can and should be based entirely on your thoughts, however strange or unsubstantiated they may seem. WHEN YOU HAVE A THEORY you start experimenting and collecting data, then you contrast your results with your theory. If they respond to each other, your theory is right. Otherwise, you start from the beginning.
Why am I telling you this? Because this is my sub-thesis. As you said, It's not based on evidence, because it was made for recording my initial observations before I finish collecting evidence on someone and then, publish a better scum list. But if I hadn't a raw list like this I would have nothing to begin with, even this is better than having nothing. Besides, I would like to avoid anyone being suspicious of me because I don't point at anyone: those are my thoughts at the present time.Planning: Katamari Damacy Mafia - Less than 50% done!
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Actually your HTML in 140 and 146 is good, you're forgetting that the forum has disallowed HTML and only uses BBCoda just a little reminder.cicero wrote:Damn I'm bad with html.
About the strategy... I can't see many benfits from Lynching a townie on day 1, because in Day 2 we start with only 3 townies versus 2 mafia. Even if Day 2 ended without lynch, Day 3 would then start at 2 twonies vs 2 mafia, and that's game for Scum. If scum were lynched at Day 2, that would leave 2 townies vs 1 mafia for Day 3.
So, the way I see it, if we lynched a townie today, our best hopes are to know for sure who is Scum by day 2. Lynching a townie can give us info about who is scum by tomorrow? I can't think any way it could happen.
Though it may sound like OMGUS, now RIF and Pwayne are on top of my list. I also feel that Pwayne is only pointing at cicero, like he's trying to fit the facts to his theory. But I know that his case is based on something, which diminishes that suspicion. RIF is still pointing at my post about cicero being a lawyer, which I have already explained (and it seems this explanation was enough for many) Also, he hasn't told anything about himself and thinks of me for "little things" which all have been explained. As well as cicero said, I also try to learn on the go, since I haven't had time to read other games and this is the only source for building my strategies.
Flay and Elias are still on the middle, while cicero and Quinn stay on the lowest of my scale.
I agree with Flay, however, in trying to reach some sort of consensus. There's my new list.Planning: Katamari Damacy Mafia - Less than 50% done!
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Wow! Today we have a lot of posting. All of your efforts deserve my complete attention. I'm sorry to disappoint anyone who's expecting my post, but I won't be able to post decently until tomorrow (my weekend is slower, it will give me plenty more time)Planning: Katamari Damacy Mafia - Less than 50% done!
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Phew! I think I've grasped most of it. Thanks a lot for your patience (specially those who asked for it, cicero, Flay and Pwayne), I'll post what I've learnt from these two main theories. Please correct me if I missed something. Let's see:
EliasPresented his Cicero - RIF Theory on 170. States that we should go for Cicero, even when he's suspecting RIF's posts, and thus would make much more sense to lynch Rime.
What I thinkI feel the same way Flay does with RIF's theory: he seems pretty damn sure for a little-info game, making a theory this solid is very risky (even without the posts, there are 21 possible pairs) Though, I partially agree with it, as I'm still suspicious of RIF, but not exactly for "cooperating with cicero"
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RIFPresented a Quinn - Flay theory on 190. This theory shows both protecting each other and argumenting rapidly (for distracting, maybe?)
What I thinkI see this case as weak, trying to appear strong, 1 is accusing for not suspecting. 2 seems to suspect Quinn on a case that even Quinn stated as weak (see 204) which is, BTW, pretty much the same scenario and reason for suspicion he had with my "Cicero is a lawyer" post. 3 is accusing them for replying quickly. I stil have to think about 4, but doesn't convince me at this time. Doesn't matter a lot, since RIF has just said he's dropping his case (why? because "Isn't anything but a few bits and suspicions"? You seemed pretty sure before) He doubted Elias and Flay in 151, Flay being in 2nd for looking for a "consensus", then Quinn appears out of nowhere in his theories.
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I don't feel 100% comfortable with neither of these theories, but I still haven't one of my own (so don't suicide, pwayne) Maybe both are half-true. Anyway, Pwayne now has dropped his second place on my list, being replaced by Elias.Planning: Katamari Damacy Mafia - Less than 50% done!
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I'm sorry for being laconical on 229. What I meant is that I don't have a case for NO LYNCH CICERO, but I never said that I want to sack him, specially for "being annoying" (otherwise I would have voted him long ago) because I don't think irritating people is scummy. I also want to know why that post made me climb your list, Flay.
However, I'm beginning to think that lynching Cicero could bring us some relevant info, according to Elias' theory. But also, the evasive posts from Flay seem suspicious now, at least for me.
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Responding Cicero's points:
1. At least 2 people have posted about you as scum, and today you had 3 votes (2 at this time) which means yes, at least Elias, Quinn and Pwayne were sure enough about your scumness to vote for you to L-1 today.
2. I think they would, if you are townie, because that could create a nice distractive athmosphere.
3. I would think of Elias and Pwayne as scum
4. I'm sorry, I'm not used to analyzing all of this at once and make a nice theory as Elias and RIF did, but if you want to know my thoughts on a specific question, I'll be glad to answer.
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Read again, I never said that Cicero being town wouldpointat you, just that it would make me feel more suspicious of Pwayne and you (I wouldthink...), since you were the principal prosecutors for him. But as you said, it's not actuallyevidenceto point anyone as scum.Planning: Katamari Damacy Mafia - Less than 50% done!
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@ Cicero: What I meant in 3 is that casting a FoS on pwayne and Elias it's the best and most logical start for day 2 (in the case that you get lynched/NK'ed today and result townie) because at this point they are the ones who are pushing the hardest to lynch you, and the Town would then scrutinize their reasons for lynching you (which then would be false). It's not that it would make everyone else non-suspicious, it's the best first step for day 2 (in my poit of view)
@Flay: I don't understand why saying that I don't ave a case against cicero is scummy. It was a direct answer to a direct question. Pwayne didn't ask for all your thoughts for and against lynching cicero, just wether anyone was against it. Yes, as pwayne said, is not good to be one of the final voters in a myslynch, and I don't mean that cowardness. I can vote for cicero, because that would clear some of the dirt, I don't have a problem with that. But your posts (as I've said) seem evasive for me. I think we all deserve a little more on your suspicion on me than a laconical post.
Why didn't I vote on cicero when pwayne asked for cases against NOT LYNCH? for the same reason pwayne didn't: to avoid a self-lynch without all the opinions around.
@pwayne: there's some, were you expecting something more specific?
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What's Andy Voting?I'm willing to vote now for for either Cicero (it would answer many things) and for Flay (Is now my top suspect) But before I vote I would like to hear some from RIF, it's been a while since his last post. If there are no significant changes in the overall mood, I'm willing to be the 4th vote.Planning: Katamari Damacy Mafia - Less than 50% done!
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I'm sorry; I don't follow. Could you explain this a little bit more?cicero wrote:pwayne66 wrote:At that point the Scum would have to be idiots to kill me.Planning: Katamari Damacy Mafia - Less than 50% done!
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Ok, I'm not asking anyone to trust me, I like your reason.cicero wrote:I don't know if I should. You might be scum and I don't know if I want to spell this out for you.
Fine by me, I just thought that you meant that NK'ing you would point directly to scum, not that they would NK someone else thinking that you would be the next day's myslynch. Sorry about that.cicero wrote:Honestly, what is not to follow? I am very suspicious to people. You have yourself said: "yes, scum would want to keep you (Cicer) alive because it could lead to a probably mislynch on day 2".
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I don't know but you made me laugh.cicero wrote:
Haha! I think you just made Pwayne gouge out his own eyeballs.Andycyca wrote:Sorry about the quotes, I deleted the incorrect tags. The quote above is from cicero, not pwayne
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Seems that the consensus if finally made. I alsoRime Ice Fury wrote:Yet, at the same time, I don't want to end the day until we've come to a consensus here.
And yet again, cicero still seems to be the most logical choice for a lynch today. As he as stated, not lynching him doesn't make him go away, and we still have all our thoughts about whether or not he's town or not.feelthat cicero is town, but I'm ready toVOTE: CiceroPLEASE If anyone wants to say something, before the lynch, tell me. I can unvote if necessary.
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This is indeed my first mafia game. Hope that applies to me as well. Thanks!Elias_the_thief wrote:[offtopic]I'd just like to say, all alignments aside, that this newbie game has an impressive level of skill in it, and I cant wait for you guys to make it to the big leugues", as it were. [/offtopic]
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This throws Elias' suspicions completely... Now it's time to review the cases against Cicero and RIF and vote in consequence, but it will take us some time...Planning: Katamari Damacy Mafia - Less than 50% done!
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Posting on the fly...
Could it be that RIF was NK'ed for his analysis? It has been said that I'm not one of the top analysts here, and maybe scum saw RIF as potentially dangerous...Planning: Katamari Damacy Mafia - Less than 50% done!
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Again, posting on the fly (sorry, a lot of work this week)
My suspects, in decreasing order:
1. Elias
2. Flay
3. Pwayne
4. Quinn
I'm on a hurry now, but if you want it, I can give you the reasons later ok?
[ Offtopic ]
BTW happy birthday Pwayne![ /offtopic]Planning: Katamari Damacy Mafia - Less than 50% done!
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Yay! weekend!
OK, let's see:
@pwayne: In my first post I suggested to track EVERYONE'S reasons for lynching cicero and/or RIF (my suggestion is to track Elias end Pwayne's first). Now that we know they're both townies, we can see which feelings were right, which ones wrong and so on. I posted that as my suggestion on what we could do now, instead of discussing another 12 pages.
Set myself to lurk? I don't want to be a lurker, every few days I post even when I'm loaded with work.
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Curious thing to notice: everyone of us has Quinn at the bottom of the scumlists. That means he's the best damn scum actor or is townie. However this seems to reduce everyone's analysis to 3 people (Elias, Flay and Pwayne in my case) I have only gut feelings yet, based on yesterday Flay's evasive posts and (weak tell) on how Elias thought he had figured down the game. I haven't discarded Pwayne yet, but I still don't have anything against.Planning: Katamari Damacy Mafia - Less than 50% done!
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Ok, now I understand your post.
Why Elias? First, because I'd like to revise his thoughts, now that we know that half of his theory was right (unfortunately, the worst half) and because it seems the most logical point to start working today's lynch (I mean, even if it's not the best clue, is better than NO clue)
Why Flay? Because of yesterday's behaviour, mainly because of his lack of contribution towards the lynch (as far as I can remember now, he didn't vote for nor against cicero's lynch) and made some evasives when asked for a logical answer (Now I can't remember exactly what is it that he evaded...)Planning: Katamari Damacy Mafia - Less than 50% done!
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I'm talking about the questions (specifically, the ones pwayne asked in 259, the same question Quinn made in 278) If I missed the answer, please tell me where it is.Mr. Flay wrote:Can you be more specific? I thought I'd answered pwayne's questions about 145/155/185 before I left town
I've already told you: my suspicion for Elias/pwayne in this scenario is still because it seems a way to begin today's search (288). I'm revising their theories, now that we know both cicero and RIF are townies it might yield some useful info.
I thought it was because he was sure of cicero's scuminess and the main prosecutor in the last bandwagon, so when he saw me casting the L-1, decided to finish the day by voting. Correct me if I'm wrong Pwayne.Mr. Flay wrote:I'm not sure why he went ahead with it once Andy voted
What about that? RIF said he didn't have a case for not lynching cicero when pwayne asked for one, but it seems that he and I had the same feelings: "Nothing for, nothing against" (you suspected me for being "non-committal" back in 274) but I said that his lynch would give us some info, that's why I voted him. However, I still don't see where you explained why you didn't want to vote cicero and/or why you weren't suspicious on him anymore (again, 259). You accused me for being non comittal but didn't vote (well, you voted me for this same reason, which I proved wrong by voting cicero)Mr. Flay wrote:...it leaves RIF and myself off the townie lynch and Quinn and Andy on it.
I don't recall pwayne asking specifically us to defend cicero or to vote him (if you're referring to 227) I think you're making this one up. Of course avoiding a question looks suspicious, but it applies to EVERY logical question, isn't it?Mr. Flay wrote:It set up the weird situation where people who didn't suspect cicero either had to defend him (a scumtell), vote/suspect him (scummy) or ignore the question (suspicious)
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[offtopic] Wow, I think this is my longest post. 5 hours in a lab can really help in making analysis.... maybe 8) [/offtopic]Planning: Katamari Damacy Mafia - Less than 50% done!
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I'm wondering exactly the same.Elias_the_thief wrote:Hmm. How is this possibly a point for me and pwayne being a pair? Also, andy said he'd consider me more, not that he'd think I'm scum. I know because I remember asking for clarification.
Are you telling me that solidifying opinions is scumplay? Of course, you can blame people based on it (anyone can blame me for voting incorrectly for cicero) but I saw that as a perfectly logical question about a relevant matter. The question, as Pwayne wrote it, is a simple "yes or no" question and everyone's answers were much like "NO"Mr. Flay wrote:Yes, I'm referring to 227. What part of "does anybody want to make a case for not lynching cicero?" isn't setting a trap for solidifying opinion/blaming someone else for a town-lynch?? I don't get your confusion here.
Still, I don't get what you meant by saying that my vote with pwayne's left RIF and you out. If RIF had voted, that would have left you and me out.
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Now the game has 3 categories for me:
Scum:Flay seems scummy to me at this point: it seems that pwayne, Elias and me aren't agreeing with his theories, which is kinda sign.
WTF:I'm having a hard time trying to find out the 2nd mafia. Pwayne and Elias are here, I don't have anything against them, nor anything in favor of their townness.
Town:Quinn, damn good actor or true townie.
Now it seems like Flay is climbing everyone's lists, like Quinn descended them....Planning: Katamari Damacy Mafia - Less than 50% done!
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Yay! unexpected free hour of internet!
What i meant (again) in 288: I said I'd (re-)consider them first, but never said that I would think of them as scum just because we know that cicero is townie, because I don't have anything solid against either one (being the main prosecutors of cicero are not enough clue for scum)
Short: I'm reconsidering their reasons to suspect cicero, but their error in cicero's alignment is not telling me they're scum.
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About pwayne's question on cicero's lynch:
Did he hijacked my analysis? how? Did he vote for cicero because no one had anything against his lynch? I haven't seen pwayne blaming me for being the last vote in the final wagon. (not the chronological last vote, but the last one needed for his lynch) which was a town lynch. I always thought of one's vote as the best way of stating one's theories, and we all know that pwayne was always suspicious of cicero, that's why he voted him several times. He voted even when many of us thought of cicero as Townie, so I don't see where he "needed" our validation to vote cicero.
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About you and the lists:
It's just an observation like yours about pwayne and elias' wagons on cicero; plus, is the closest thing to a consensus at this point. I want to point it so that everyone can look quickly at the Town's feelings in case anyone hasn't noticed (which I doubt, because you people are sharp!) Of course, as humans we can ALWAYS be wrong, but if you notice I've always stated Quinn as a very good actor or a true townie. I haven't discarded him 100%, because I don't know anything about anyone's roles, it's just that he's the one on bottom of the lists and these last posts make evident that nearly all of us aren't quite agreeing with you.Planning: Katamari Damacy Mafia - Less than 50% done!
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I'd like to second Elias' questions
You mean Andy?Mr. Flay wrote:...but yesterday I thought I had better targets by the end of the day...
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Whoa! I had to reread the whole thread in one single shot. RIF said in 190 that a possible pair is Elias & Quinn. Maybe his theory was'nt the best, but now,as a gut feeling, feels kinda possible. I'd like your gut feelings and/or thoughts on Elias & Quinn as scumbuddies
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@Pwayne: I can't say a thing about why you rank higher in Flay's list than me (Actually, I wonder the same thing) About today's posts I can only tell you it was coincidence, but now Flay is my top suspect above Elias (who seems to be collaborating more, tough that doesn't redeem him for me)
Now that I'm on this subject, one question to y'all: Some of you target me as scum, but I feel it's based on Flay's posts. I am townie, and I'm willing to answer for everythingI have donethat make you suspicious of me (of course, I can't answer for Flay's behaviour)
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Ahoy!
Yes. I've said it: I have the gut feeling that it may be possible, but right now my top suspect is still Flay.
...and I'm still expecting your thoughts/gut feelings about RIF's theory.
<offtopic>...and a bottle of Rum!Planning: Katamari Damacy Mafia - Less than 50% done!
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Yes, I recalled RIF's suspicions at the beginning of Day 2 If you're referring to what I said in 313 I just wondered whether RIF was NK'ed for his deep analysis, and was Flay who pointed Elias. Yes, at that time my top scum was Elias, but not now (not the top one, I mean). Also, RIF's theory was posted in 190, but at that time we were all more concerned on Elias's theory on Cicero-RIF and on my reread last night I noticed that we (in general) paid little attention to RIF, so I completely forgot.Planning: Katamari Damacy Mafia - Less than 50% done!
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This strikes me as hard WIFOM. This is why (Please, correct me if any of these are wrong / can't be true):Quinnster wrote:What I meant by my post was: if the mafia can win today by making us lynch a townie, and everyone suspects Flay, does that not put Flay in a townie position? If he was scum, SOMEONE would be trying to divert attention. Not saying he's off my list, it's just an observation I had.
Nearly all (if not all) of our suspicions towards Flay are based on his behaviour/posts. If scum wants to misguide the Town in order to lynch the supposed Flay-townie, they would try to mis-characterize Flay's posts (use his own words against him), or somehow build an artificial theory pointing at him (when his own words can't be used against him)
In the first case, i don't think anyone has heavily mischaracterized Flay's posts, otherwise someone would've noted it (as correcting wrong logic is pro-town as far as I know)
In the second case... I don't see it happening. As I said, our suspicions are based on his posts, and there seems to be no heavy mischaracterization.
The second case: Flay is Scum. Even if he is scum and is lynched today, mafia can still win the game. And seeing our numbers, heavy distraction from a bandwagon would confess scumnness, so If I were mafia, at this point I would try to remove suspicion from my buddy subtly, but in the case of a lynch, I would go with it in order to avoid myself beeing seen.Planning: Katamari Damacy Mafia - Less than 50% done!
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Pwayne, I think the question about Flay's opinion of me can't be relevant to tomorrow if he gets killed today, and I wondered the same thing as Elias. However, I agree with pwayne, nobody's going to defend Flay directly right now (not me, for sure)
I don't know how to digest pwayne's last post. Yes, it's true they both passed up a quicklynch opportunity, but what does that prove? (or what's your point in that phrase?)
You know Flay's my top suspect, and I'm willing to vote him (you've seen me: I keep my vote promises) IF these two questions are answered and nothing relevant happens.Planning: Katamari Damacy Mafia - Less than 50% done!
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Ok, the question I meant was:Flay, what happened to your suspicion towards Andy (me)?and since you're the only one who can answer that, it must be answered while you're alive. Of course, if you get killed today, all we would have tomorrow is speculation about it.
But it seems you've answered that....
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I'm pushing for and end of day because I think we have little left to discuss (unless someone has something else to say relevant to discussion, which I doubt)
And I'm pushing it towards you... because
Lemme see what we've got so far. Pwayne voted first, and both Quinn and Elias didn't vote. This proves that both of them are not scum (as Pwayne indicated in 399) Let's say that one of {Elias, Quinn} is scum. That leaves one scum in the {pwayne, Flay} set. I highly doubt that scum would like to start today's lynch before they have the 3rd (twonie) vote secure. That would prove Pwayne's towness and Flay's scumness.Andycyca wrote:...I have now a strong gut feeling for Flay's scuminessattached tomy previous suspicions.
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Now, I voted and Elias stated his hope in 402
Elias in 404 says that it's hard to be sure "after his fuck up" and states 2 possible pairs, but explains them as WIFOM and presents them without much explanations, denies his vote because he's confused (an IC?)
Elias, in 407 states two more theories, but doesn't share how are them possible (I agree with flay as scum, but it makes no sense that both scum are on the wagon: that would mean pwayne and me are scum, but wouldn't like to start a wagon without convincing at least one person to vote for a townie)
AND: Elias has been active enough here. He's made 3 posts without anything good or relevant (a hope, WIFOM theories and a reread on the thread) , like he's trying to distract us townies.
My vote stays.Planning: Katamari Damacy Mafia - Less than 50% done!
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Yep, that's exactly what I meant, sorry if I confused anyone.Elias_the_thief wrote:
good point, assuming you meant both of us are not scumAndycyca wrote:
Lemme see what we've got so far. Pwayne voted first, and both Quinn and Elias didn't vote. This proves that both of them are not scum (as Pwayne indicated in 399)together, not that it proves us both innocent.
Of course, I said that I doubt it, but I can't be sure (either way, the numbers are a fact: scum alone can't lynch today, they have to convince at least one person to cast the third vote) Yes, it does feel WIFOMesque, I ain't denying it.Elias_the_thief wrote:
This is getting kind of wifom, but decent points.Andycyca wrote: That leaves one scum in the {pwayne, Flay} set. I highly doubt that scum would like to start today's lynch before they have the 3rd (twonie) vote secure. That would prove Pwayne's towness and Flay's scumness.
OK, I never meant IC= god, but it seemed weird to me that a more experienced player presented those theories that weak, but I get your point now.Elias_the_thief wrote:
Being an IC doesnt make you a god. I have a 1 win and 4 losses as town. Thats why im confused. Im excellent scum, terrible town. My theories were not serious suggestions. I was using them as examples to show how I still think there are many possibilities.Andycyca wrote: Elias in 404 says that it's hard to be sure "after his fuck up" and states 2 possible pairs, but explains them as WIFOM and presents them without much explanations, denies his vote because he's confused (an IC?)
Yes, but I think it's a very logic opinion (pretty much like the one above: scum won't try to vote alone, as they are still a minority, they need a townie vote) Though it sounds like WIFOM, I think it's the best of the two choices available (either both scum on the wagon or Flay's scum)Elias_the_thief wrote:
Those are the two possibilities. My theories were NOT wifom speculation. There is no way that a townie couldve sat at -1 at LYLO this long unless both scum are on the wagon. So therefore, either both are on, or Flay is scum. This is simply literally stating the only two possibilities at this point. The response that YOU made, is wifom. You are saying that you dont think that scum would start a wagon with no protown votes on it. That is your opinion. What I stated is fact.Andycyca wrote: Elias, in 407 states two more theories, but doesn't share how are them possible (I agree with flay as scum, but it makes no sense that both scum are on the wagon: that would mean pwayne and me are scum, but wouldn't like to start a wagon without convincing at least one person to vote for a townie)I'd appreciate everyone's thoughts on this.
And ok, I take my words on your theories as WIFOM, it's just that they were presented as "Well, there are still some possibilities" without a base (not that there isn't a base for those cases, just that it wasn't presented)
OK, but there's still the fact that you were around here, and that can't be denied. Why do I say so? Because at least it discards the possibility thatElias_the_thief wrote:
The first served a purpose. It showed how I wasnt sure, and how I was against lynching at that point. The second post had a VERY relevant point about narrowing our speculations to a much smaller field of view based on the lack of quicklynch. The third was important because I reread on flay. Anyways, these are my thoughts, endgame wise.Andycyca wrote: AND: Elias has been active enough here. He's made 3 posts without anything good or relevant (a hope, WIFOM theories and a reread on the thread) , like he's trying to distract us townies.
My vote stays.both{Elias, pwayne} are scum (I'm town, of course), otherwise, Flay would be dead right now.
In addition to Elias, I'd really appreciate Quinn's POV.Elias_the_thief wrote: All the evidence we now have from endgame voting points to Flay as scum. I will hammer tomorrow, or tonight if all the players get a word in.Planning: Katamari Damacy Mafia - Less than 50% done!
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Damn! *Andy headbangs like his avatar*
... But I admit it was a very smart move (ending the day that way canceled Quinn's possible analysis). I must say that I was expecting that post from Quinn, as I hold him as a smart guy (and he's not a great actor as we once thought)
Of course at this point our golden rule is NO VOTING UNLESS YOU'RE PRETTY DAMN SURE.
Bits o' thoughts:
1.Completely agree with pwayne on 417: being an IC doesn't make you innocent (Kerplunk said the roles were handed randomly)
2.About 418 & my vote: Yep, I didn't vote in my first chance (in 398) because I still wanted those questions asked (one to Pwayne and one to Flay) But I also promised to vote when those questions were answered and if nothing relevant happens. I voted in 401 as I promised, and also because I thought as pwayne that we had little left to discuss w/o any votes. I was lucky Elias and Quinn posted before me, proving that they were not scumbuddies (proof by Kerplunk on 415) My reasoning for voting is explained on my previous posts in this page (I'm willing to explain them further if needed)
2.1.So far, my set theory is correct and it points directly to Elias, but it's not definitive yet. I'd like comments on this.
2.2And talking about the votes, I don't know if it means anything but:
:arrow: The three players alive are almost the same in cicero's lynch
:arrow: pwayne and I are the only ones in both lynches
:arrow: My votes were always the second to last votes
Again, I don't know if this means something, probably not, but could be useful
3.About scum on the wagon... We have nothing to prove that scum jumped on the wagon (because I'm town, that leaves one player beside me on the wagon and on outside) Like pwayne, I think it's very WIFOMy to think from this angle. Why? Because:
Flay's selfvote WAS significant. We lost one precious POV from our most trusted partner and now we're kinda lost again.
Are we posting WIFOM/weird theories about Flay's suicide? Here's mine: he voted himself to protect his partner from this "scum IS in the wagon" theory, which isn't complete (of course, is complete to Elias since he says he's town, obviously that means that scum is in the wagon)
Let'ssupposeElias is scum: Flay and Elias couldn't communicate to each other during the day (unless they broke the rules, which I doubt) Flay possibly sensed danger in spotting both scum in one day if Quinn posted his thoughts. As I said yesterday, scum would try to move the lynch towards another townie. pwayne voted and both quinn and Elias advised against hastiness, which seems good. But when I voted for L-1 and posted my thoughts on 410 Elias posted and seemed afraid of making a mistake, but now he didn't ask for a delay in the lynch. This, and the three of us expecting Quinn's POV, Flay, who was incapable of devising any quick strategy with Elias saw danger, selfvoted, cancelling Quinn's participation for the day and kinda erasing the thought by pwayne in 391:
[quote=pwayne66]
To combat what Elias is saying, that Flay's partner would bus him at this point, it would probably be wise to find out who was one of the last people to post suspicions of him once he began to look scummy. [/quote]
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I know it looks scummy to push this heavy towards one of you, but sincerely, from these last pages (specially the last 2 pages) I can't find anything decent to build up a case against pwayne, as his last behavior seems very protown.
Again, I'd really appreciate comments on this.Planning: Katamari Damacy Mafia - Less than 50% done!
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<meta> I think I'm the less active player now (I mean, I constantly have sudden work/homework to do) I ask you for a little patience. Right now I'm fine, but I'm not around the forum all day.Planning: Katamari Damacy Mafia - Less than 50% done!
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1st: I thought you reread the whole thread, be careful with incorrect statements. My suspicions towards Flay were already up in 288 not "until yesterday". Yes, my post looks like I'm very eager of a lynch, but I stated why I thought so (408 and 410) and even asked for corrections/opinions in 410.
Quietest during the case section? I hope you're not referring to those times when I'm overloaded with work and I post something like "I'm working, but still reading the thread" And if we're talking about being active, I could say that your first posts in this page didn't help neither a lynch nor a no-lynch.
Now, pwayne and I asked why exactly you think that scum is in the wagon (I mean, a reason/theory that any of {andy, pwayne} can understand, because if it's based on you not being on the wagon it's completely useless.
About pwayne... I told you, nothing from the last 2 pages gives me enough to suspect him right now, but that doesn't mean he's completely clean to me. Maybe something on the long run could, but not yet.
Again, I'd like your thoughts on point 2.1 of 421
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You present against me:
1. My POV towards Flay
2. Possible distancing
3. Me being quiet
4. Yesterday's hurry
And still you say you'd vote me for "mainly gut"? I've answered for points 1, 3 and 4. Of course, I can't respond for Flay's actions, so it's a point where I can't defend myself without raising Flay from his grave to ask him some questions.Planning: Katamari Damacy Mafia - Less than 50% done!
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Yes, he seemed evasive (which seems suspicious), and lacking more solid evidence, Flay was my top suspect at that time.
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That's exactly what I mean: your theory is not"the remaining scum must be on the wagon", is rather"One of the other two people here (who casually were in the wagon) is scum". The first one, as it was written, can be confusing, and pwayne and I saw it like that:
So, it seems this is merely a question of semantics and can be reduced to "everyone of us believes the remaining scum is one of the other two"pwayne66 wrote:From my angle the other scum either was or was not on the wagon.
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Well, in order to clarify things, what is it exactly what you call "case section"? Maybe we're talking about two different timeframes.
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About pwayne... I said: "maybe something on the long run could" As you, I'm rereading the whole thread, I mentioned it because I don't want you to think that I've discarded pwayne completely, just that I can't remember anything heavy enough to beat my suspicions towards you, that's why I reread.
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MY thoughts on 2.1 of 421? Well, here I go again:
When I wrote 421, I was thinking more deeply in Flay, because all the lights were on him with his L-1 status. Seeing the lack of quicklynch after pwayne's vote I figured (as everyone did) that the set of {Quinn, Elias} couldn't possibly be both scum, but it didn't clear anyone of you.
We knew that there were two mafia, so the most logical thing to do was to think of sets of sets of people (2 sets of 2 people each). The possibilities:
{ {Elias, Quinn} {pwayne, Flay} }
{ {pwayne, Elias} {Quinn, Flay} }
and
{ {pwayne, Quinn} {Elias, Flay} }
The only set about which we knew something was {Elias, Quinn} so the other two possibilities aren't useful for thinking. Based on the lack of quicklynch, we knew that {Elias, Queen} couldn't be full of mafia. If {pwayne, Flay} were full of mafia, they would try to direct the lynch towards a townie for an auto-win. Supposing they were both mafia, pwayne's vote for Flay seems strange, mainly because everyone was suspecting Flay, and scum would prefer to direct everyone's attention somewhere else, and a vote isn't the best way.
This way, I bet for having one scum in the {Elias, Quinn} set and one in the {pwayne, Flay} set (I said this in 408) With the info we have today, this points directly to pwayne being Townie and Elias being Scum.I'd appreciate Elias' and pwayne's POV on this
---------------------------------Elias_the_thief wrote:I dont remember you addressing 4
-----------------------------------Andycyca wrote:Yes, my post looks like I'm very eager of a lynch, but I stated why I thought so (408 and 410) and even asked for corrections/opinions in 410.
Of course, I can't tell you who to vote for. But for the sake of good discussion, I'd kindly ask you to wait for pwayne's POV. We've said a lot of things lately, and it will be interesting to read what he's got to (say) write.Elias_the_thief wrote:From the looks of both of your posts, I'll have to be first to votePlanning: Katamari Damacy Mafia - Less than 50% done!
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In addition to my post 363, I told you it's not fair that many suspicions about me were based on Flay's behavior, and I asked everyone to tell me whatI have donethat made me look like scum in 377:
Nobody told me anything about it in the remaining of the day. This can only mean one of thwo things:Andycyca wrote:Now that I'm on this subject, one question to y'all: Some of you target me as scum, but I feel it's based on Flay's posts. I am townie, and I'm willing to answer for everythingI have donethat make you suspicious of me (of course, I can't answer for Flay's behaviour)
1. No one suspects me based on actions of my own or...
2. The final bandwagon stole the spotlights from every other topic in this game.
I 'm sure you both are suspicious of me (otherwise, you'd be trying to convince ME to vote for the other one) and of course, I'm being answered now thanks to the number of players available to blame.
Even if it's a small question, I'd like yo know...Andycyca in 426 wrote:...would it be wise for us to analyze why are we left alive?Planning: Katamari Damacy Mafia - Less than 50% done!
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My question was a simple yes/no one: Should we discuss the NK? I asked it because I know pwayne thinks it could be confusing, and I partially agree (he was reluctant to speculate about yesterday's NK) But we don't have as many POV's as we would like, so maybe the best thing to do is to look everywhere for something that can help us identifying the last scum in Kerplunkville. So, what else should we discuss (inadditionto the other questions)Planning: Katamari Damacy Mafia - Less than 50% done!
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Well, I just can't find anything against pwayne that is both:
1. Heavier than my suspicions towards Elias AND
2. Not extremely paranoid and delusional (I mean, the best I've thought is that he and Flay planned to lynch one of them in order to prove the other one's innocence...)
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It's funny that I want to make a note on your wording. What did you mean in your question?
1.What reason do I have to vote him over you?You're asking me to be a psychic here, I don't know what reason you have for voting him.
2.What reasonYou're asking me to convince you for either not voting me and/or voting pwayne. If I can't even convince myself logically to vote for pwayne, it'd be a waste trying to convince you,wouldI have to vote him over you?Planning: Katamari Damacy Mafia - Less than 50% done!
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Yeah, second that. I've responded to everything you've asked me. It seems we've dryed our discussion, maybe pwayne's is the last question that should be answered before we vote. What do you think?Planning: Katamari Damacy Mafia - Less than 50% done!
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I posted 363 because of your posts:pwayne66 wrote:I'm not sure if you even did suspect him (he thought you did), but if so, I would be curious to know.
pwayne66 (361) wrote:Nor do I expect you to. I am less inclined to believe that Andy is Flay's partner. If not that means that you or Elias are. I am actively looking for those indications. I'm committed to Flay though.
For the record, it irks me to no end to be appealing my case to you. The more I consider this situation the more I hate it and the more alarming it becomes to consider that this vote swings on a noncofirmed player.
I can't recall where Elias answered me.Elias_the_thief (362) wrote:hrm. Andy and Flay is the most likely pairing out of the remaining players. But I have to reread and see what I think of it on my own. Basically the two mafia are in [pwayne, andy, flay] in my opinion.Planning: Katamari Damacy Mafia - Less than 50% done!
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Well, this could be analyzed the other way round: maybe a townie would like discussion on himself in order to clear his own name (which is what I've looked for). Of course, a scum would like this as well. Result? WIFOM.Elias_the_thief (446) wrote:Why is this a scumtell? Let's look at it this way: take a townie (like myself) in an endgame situation such as this. He knows that he is townie. Why would he want discussion on himself? He would want to focus on the two other people so that he as a townie can make a good decision.
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Recalling 429, I've answered everything, I guess.
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Yeah, but almost every question addressed to you has been asked more than once before you answer it, like:Elias_the_thief (439) wrote:Its not like I'm telling you that youre not allowed to question me
So far I've been posting my thoughts on thinking paths that could lead us into finding scum. I even made a small set theory but no one commented it. Even something like '' "It's impossible because of this and that" '' would be appreciated. This game is greatly about finding logically scum, and I think that we need to discuss as much as we can and all ideas should be mentioned, even for discarding (things like "we shouldn't discuss the NK because all we'll find is WIFOM") That's why I like to post suggestions on action lines, but I need other POV's in order to find every pro and con on my theories (I can't find all of them because I'm not perfect)Andycyca (428) wrote: '''I'd appreciate Elias' and pwayne's POV on this'''
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What else do we have left to discuss?Planning: Katamari Damacy Mafia - Less than 50% done!
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