Newbie 436 - Killings in Kerplunkville - GAME OVER

[pwayne66]

Vote: Andycyca

...why not?

[pwayne66]

..curious... and irritating... I was stoked at the prospect of creating an alternate name and now we have a lynch -1 situation. If its not too late, can I be Patty Patty Pumpkincakes?

[pwayne66]

oh, yeah:

UNVOTE

[pwayne66]

[/b]Vote:Elias

...in an effort to share the wealth.

[pwayne66]

Vote:Elias

[pwayne66]

We got ourselves a fine mess:

1) Cicero's paranoia coupled with his appeals of newbiness make him a favorite at this point.

2) Flay's hypersensitivity places him a close second on my radar (it seems worth noting that he did put cicero at lynch -1, this was mentioned briefly by Rime but was not scrutinized with the same zeal at which the town went after cicero for the same thing).

3) Quinn is helpful and has planted the "I am just a duty-bound kantaholic who would never hurt anybody" seed successfully.

Nothing worth lynching anybody over, just the world as I see it.

[pwayne66]

Nearly forgot: Andy, day 1 ends when we vote to lynch (or not to lynch) with a majority. I am not sure if the day technically ends once that majority is reached, or when the mod proclaims the lynch. Days can vary in length. Too much time elapsing without progress could result in a mod imposed deadline.

[pwayne66]

Elias has some interesting points. The bulk of his concern seems to stem from a "random" vote that I placed on him. He claims that I am trying to draw attention away from cicero despite naming him my number one suspect.

I did not jump on cicero right away b/c I felt the town was covering my concerns adequately. I am not big on posting "ditto" over and over again but I would be willing to do so if it would satisfy you.

As far as being more concerned with my alternate name, you are right I was. In an effort to stifle the conspiracy talk and make my intentions clear, I want to change my alternate name to cicerosheadonastick. (though in reality you and I agree, cicero hasn't cemented his scumminess. You claiming that I haven't done enough to accuse cicero when you don't think he is scum is a bit odd IMO.)

[pwayne66]

Cicero, another scumtell is trying to speed up discussion and lynch somebody on faulty or incomplete evidence. I would avoid doing so if you don't like to be picked on. I won't be ready to lynch for days and I would expect all townies to take this attitude. Flay has already pointed out the dangers of lynching town at this point and on that point, I agree with him.

The way I see it, a good townie:

1) encourages conversation
2) demands logical and coherent arguments
3) asks and answers all reasonable questions
4) and does not distract the town by appearing scummy when they are not

A mafia member:

1) seeks to confuse the town
2) appeals to emotive rather than logical arguements
3) wants to avoid conversation
4) loves townies who distract other townies by appearing scummy.

The question at this point seems to be:

What is cicero, a townie distracting the town by appearing scummy, or an overtly obvious scum? I tend to believe that he is a townie but I would like for him to calm himself and focus on bagging a scum at this point.

babekiller, I was referencing elias' points about me voting for him and ignoring cicero as an attempt to divert attention.

[pwayne66]

Yes, all games are like this if you mean slow and deliberate. I am at a loss for what it is you want. You want excitement and a quick pace but whine if anybody accuses you. The type of game you seem to be proposing is one that requires us to guess (an odd request considering your aversion to random voting) lynch day one within 3 pages. Use what data we gather day 1 (which would be none) to guess day two at which point the law of averages dictate the town losses because we lynch town two times and have two town night kills. This sounds fun?

In this game we do our best to use logic to determine who the bad guys are. In this game (as in game #436) we have spent nearly 3 pages debating whether you are scum to which your only defense is "I am a townie and by the way here is me acting like I am scum again." This is three pages we could have dedicated to grilling flay for his lynch -1 vote, or found out anything of significance about rime, andy or quinn.

[pwayne66]

The way I see it, there is the defense of a player and then there is the defense of the town' best interests. Correcting an error that another player made in building their case for a lynch benefits the town more than an individual player. BTW, I can't find a place where I defended you. I did state that I agreed with your assessment of the dangers of a day one townie lynch. Other than that, my only other reference to you were ones of suspicion, a status that you continue to maintain.

[pwayne66]

I admit I may have been wrong about emotional pleas as a goal of the mafia. I meant only that emotional pleas along the lines of "seriously guys, I'M A TOWNIE!" or "I swear to God that X is scum, I don't know why but I just feel it." are always suspicious to me when not backed by fact. If I were mafia, I would love games where the one who cries the loudest, slanders the most, and bullies the hardest wins. The town must embrace calm logic and reject feuds and popularity contests as a means for finding scum.

[pwayne66]

That is an interesting find. It goes along with mine. I don't feel confident lynching anybody at this point, but If I had to choose right now though, I would have to lynch cicero. I have realized that despite all my talk of being logical and not using "gut feelings" to play this game, I have been saying all along that cicero

feels

like a townie. That is hypocritical of me.

The argument in cicero's defense seems to be, cicero must be a townie because scum would not be so obvious. Is this WIFOM reasoning? I am not ready to lynch him (I not even ready to vote for him) I'm just not ready to let him of the hook.

UNVOTE

[pwayne66]

Wow.. a lot has happened.

My thoughts (in no particular order):

Rime Ice Fury- there has been some momentum towards a RIF lynch. The strongest evidence seems to be a perceived connection between himself and either flay or cicero. Other than that all we have are weak tells. (quinn brings up RIF's lack of reaction to Flay's lynch -1 on Cicero, this is something that seemed odd to me as well.)

cicero- his recent posts have gone a long way to redeem him. Other than that my suspicions are already documented.

Andycyca- I am having trouble getting a read here. His post indicate that he is observant and is aware what is going on. I don't know where he stand exactly (this may be my fault) and that bothers me a little.

Quinnster- Initially I was suspicious. His post seemed intent on establishing his moral character and this aroused my suspicions. Recently I have found his thoroughness and analysis to be decidedly helpful for the town.

Elias_the_thief- Has managed to avoid controversy and insight meaningful discussion. Other than that, I don't feel that I have a good read on him.

Mr. Flay- My early candidate for #2 scummiest. Flay had fallen off the radar.Quinn's analysis raises some eyebrows. I would like to hear more from Flay at this point.

[pwayne66]

Sounds like you're trying to drum up support for my lynch without actually voting me yourself, pwayne.

...or possibly I would just like to hear more from you, to take what I said literally...

You had fallen of

my

radar as I was more interested Cicero. I am still undecided, but drumming up support to lynch you doesn't seem too difficult if that were my intent.

[pwayne66]

The concept of not knowing anything can be frustrating. You know more and more as the game progresses. This is why taking a day one slowly, encouraging/demanding that everybody post their thoughts and suspicions are important. What is said today, who votes for who, and who defends who becomes more relevant as we come into day two and then day three. By tomorrow we will know the identities of two players. What they said about other players and what other players said about them plays a huge role then.

Andy has an out then? I might have to try this next time that I am scum.

[pwayne66]

Before we seal the deal on the meta gaming issue, I want it noted that I wasn't that good of a liar... I lost and by the end it seemed that everybody that had been playing knew I was scum. I must note; cicero's attention to detail and selective understanding of this game is remarkable. In some areas he is a prodigy, in others a raging newbie. If I didn't think that I'd be called out for an OMGUS vote, I would vote him. As it is,

FOS Cicero

, who somehow has been given the golden pass of newbieness by the town while simultaneously being patted on the back for insightful commentary and understanding of the game.

[pwayne66]

I'm not sure what your ability to sleep at night has do with anything. The only thing I can determine is that you are saying that you don't feel any obligation to help the town and won't feel guilty if your actions cause us to be in a lynch or lose situation tomorrow. Am I right?

In order to fully appreciate my aggravation here, imagine if I had answered your challenge that I was a good liar by saying. "If you have the balls, lynch me and find out". When Flay answers your question he says "Only one way to tell. kill me... because I am not cooperating with the town's investigation."

I answered your question/accusation/challenge by stating that I didn't feel that my lies were that good, because I lost. You answered my accusation by saying "triple. dog. dare." And then, as near as I can tell, defended yourself by saying that you didn't care if you help your case (and by osmosis, the town's case). You are consistently anti-town, and you have been given ample opportunity to change that.

Vote: Cicero

[pwayne66]

...

1) I'm not sure if you missed this, but I am not the only person suspicious of you. I know this shatters the picture that you are trying to paint of me being the lone person that can't see you for what you are, a upright townie doing all that he can to catch scum, but there are plenty of other posts by other players that state their continued suspicions.

2) You answered your allegations?

Here is a history of your defenses:

post 17: I'm a townie.
Post 26: I'm a townie... omgus
post 32: I'm a newbie and you guys are too serious!
Post 43: I'm newbie but isn't this just a game of luck anyways?
Post 47: I'm a newbie and I don't believe in scumtells
Post 55: I'm a townie (BTW can we lynch somebody quickly)
Post 62: I'm a townie and this game isn't fun.
Post 89: I triple dog DARE you to lynch me. BTW I never used I am a townie as a defense.
Post 130: 3xdog dare
Post 132: I don't care

3) Now I'm hungery to lynch? For putting you at lynch -3? Seriously.

4) You have been pro town. So has everybody else.

5) I think using I am a townie as a defense is a scumtell. I think using I am a newbie is suspicious. I think arguing that this is a game of luck and logic ought not be applied is scumtell. I think that urging us to lynch somebody quick is scumtell. I think that urging somebody to lynch you to prove a point is scummy. Not caring is scummy.

6) One tiny little scumtell at the begining of the game? All the way up to Page 3 you were still urging us to lynch somebody as quick as possible. That's half the game dude.

7) I never said that your defense of Andy's ESL was scummy. Only that I was suspicious of the "I don't speak the language defence"

8) Do you really believe that any accusation against are baseless?

[pwayne66]

...I don't know where the sunglasses guy came from... I didn't mean to use him.

[pwayne66]

Fair enough. I think this argument has exhausted its fuel. You seem to agree that there is reason to be suspicious of you and I will cede that in the heat of the argument, I used loaded language to paint you in an unflattering way. My vote remains though until a more likely suspect emerges.

[pwayne66]

Andy, I am voting Cicero because he has made the most amount of mistakes. I have expressed my doubts to him being mafia and I waver back and forth on this point. This brings us to the point that cicero himself brought up about voting the most suspicious player, townie or not. I say, in the absence of solid evidence, the town has to vote for the player that has exibihited the most suspicious behaviour regardless what the personal feelings may be of their guilt or innocence. This encourages pro-town behaviour and in the event that the town lacks any real evidence, the game becomes a crap shoot (like cicero has indicated) and can only benefit from getting rid of the most distracting townie rather than risk lynching less suspicious towniese based on knee jerk reactions.

If I were to go soley on my gut, Elias and RIF are scum. Going on what I have witnessed thus far and leaving my personal feelings out of it: Cicero, Flay and Andy are scum.

That said, if somebody has a solid case against somebody else, or can challenge my assertation that cicerio has been the most suspicious player, I am willing to change my vote.

Oh, thanks for the clarification Flay. I did mean 8).

[pwayne66]

...yes, I know there are only two mafia memebers... this should read any two of cicero, flay and andy are scum.

[pwayne66]

Interesting list. Determining the town's suspicion numerically based uponthe folling scoring system:

3rd most suspicous = 1 point
2nd most suspicious= 2 points
1st most suspicious= 3 points
x = 2 points
v = 3 points
gut = nothing


The tally adds up like this (I think...):

1) Flay (10 points)
T1)Rime (10 points)
3) Cicero (6 points)
4) Pwayne (5 points)
5) Elias (4 points)
T5)Andy (4 points)
7) Quin (3) points)

This seems to show where the town stands in general, though I would like Elias to weigh in with his suspicions to complete this. At this point he seems to have contributed a random 3 points to Quinn.

Speaking of Quinn, zero suspion despite his one vote from Elias. I would have liked to see his feet held to the fire a bit but there was never a cause to do so.

Elias, as mentioned, hasn't appeared to contribute much. Says that his head isn't in the game.


I will have to review the case against Rime.

[pwayne66]

The basis of the RIF movement seems to revolve around this theory by Quinn:

Rime Ice Fury – Starts with a random vote on Flay because “seven is the magic number”, which seemed like a little weak of an argument, even for a random vote, then goes on to propose silly names. Now, this is Rime’s first game, so it’s not like he would be bored of the usual names because of older games, but maybe he just wanted to have a little fun and change his name. No problem with that. Lets Flay off the hook for putting Cicero at lynch-1.

It is a very pretty theory in that it seems to work and make sense but it is also very delicate. The evidence against Flay and RIF from this angle seems so interwoven that without one, do we have the other. ei, if Flay isn't scum, is RIF still suspicious and visa versa.

Flay is voting for RIF in what will likely be interpurted as a "distancing strategy". He stated reason is for his silly name post on day one. Flay cannot base his suspicions upon Quinn's interconnected mafia theory as he would be accusing himself as well. I would like to hear more from Flay on what makes RIF the scummiest player in town.

Cicero accuses RIF of lacking curiosity and dispassionate play.

I say that I have a gut feeling about him but do not include him among my top 3 suspects.

Andy accuses RIF for still picking apart his lawyer post, and not revealing enough information about himself.

I am dissapointed that we veered from this conversation as both Flay and RIF made attempts to answer Quinn's accusation. Most resently, Quinn stated that he can't get over RIF's earlier mistakes. As near as I can tell, these mistakes are a weak reason for a random vote, proposing we use silly names, and dismissed Flay for his lynch-1. Are these the charges that RIF must defend himself against? And if so are they adequate to warrant lynching?

[pwayne66]

...was just rereading a realized that I posted the wrong quote by Quinnester. This is the theory I was refering to:

"So, this would leave Cicero, Rime Ice Fury, and Mr. Flay on my suspicious list. Of the three, the two most likely to be in league are Rime and Flay. Let me explain. Firstly, I would imagine that a disproportionate amount of the time, one scum will vote for the other in the random vote. Why not? Nobody will think anything of it, and as a last resort later, they can always say “why would you think I’m with them? Would I have voted them in random if they were my scumbuddy?” Then, when Flay puts Cicero at lynch-1, Rime criticizes it, but never votes for him. It would seem scummy to ignore it, but Rime would definitely not want to start a bandwagon against Flay if they were together. Lastly, we come to Flay’s voting on Rime. He admits that it’s based on a weak tell, and makes some others look more suspicious. I think this is distancing. If people were to actually start voting Rime, I think Flay would have to unvote, because he figures nobody will actually start a vote on Rime based solely on his gut feelings. "

[pwayne66]

So, unless I missed something:

Flay 10 points
RIF 10 points
Cicero 9 points

We also have dueling conspiracy theories. I'm thinking outloud here, but these domino theory of scumminess bothers me a bit. It seems that theories like this can can be a Trojan horse for an informed minority. If we lynch Cicero and he turns out to be scum, we go after RIF. All the while we are unaware that Elias is scum and bussed his partner to have a 2 vs 1 scenerio day3. I'm not making accusations, just stating the danger of this type of theory.

Now, to the questions: Elias, if you believe that both Cicero and RIF are scum, why are you going after Cicero instead of RIF? RIF is a much easier case to make as many seem to think that he is scummy. Cicero requires that you convince Quinn, RIF and Andy, all of which (I seem to remember but may be wrong) doubt that Cicero is scum. You may have already answered this above and I missed it. If so, I apologize.

[pwayne66]

Oh one more thing (...doing my best Colombo imperonation...)

RIF, It seems that you may be protesting too much. With Cicero as the target, if he gets lynch and is town, you are in the clear. Your defence seems to point towards 1 of 3 things.

1) You don't want Cicero to be lynch because you know he is scum and you are his partner.
2) You know that Cicero is town and don't want him lynched.
3) Or you are afraid that Cicero may be scum and you will be the next target.

Nothing earth shattering here...just thinking aloud.

[pwayne66]

UNVOTE

There are several people that need weigh in on this issue lets let them weigh in and stop the pissing contest.

[pwayne66]

This is a defence against your scumminess. Not an accusation of my scumminess, for the record. So a bit out of place there. I'm still suspicious of that - just not *very*. Look, with little to go on I focussed on two things - lurkers and liars. I've heard... vaguely... that there are "Lynch all Lurkers" and "Lynch all Liars" principles in this mafia game. Unfortunately I appear to be one of the few who has neither lurked or lied. I have accused Elias, Flay and Pwayne of mischaracterisation - with Flay's being the most troubling to me. Followed by Pwayne's extensive misrepresentation (in my opinion) of my defences over time. Though frankly, sometimes I think some of you just can't or won't read for comprehension because you are too busy or whatever and/or just read into things what you want to. I don't know what to do with that. I guess it's all part of the game.

Cicero, I dropped our earlier exchange because I was afraid that it was becoming distracting. The fact that you keep refering to it leads me to beleve that you still feel slighted. The way I presented your arguments were overly simplified. Other than that I feel they were accurate. What's more, those defenses are the very weakest part of the case against you. From where I am standing, it seems that you are beating the hell out of a strawman.

BTW, that is two votes I have been compeled to change because of your brash behaviour. You may believe in lynching all liars and lynching all lurkers (even Quinn?) But I perfer lynching anybody that I can't trust not to get trigger happy in a lynch or lose situation.

[pwayne66]

If you feel its relevant lets rehash:

my characterizations in red. cicero's quotes in blue.

MY MISCHARACTERIZATIONS OF CICERO'S DEFENSES

Post 17: I'm a townie.

"Defending myself:

Well, first I'm a townie. Just a plain old townie. No role. No scumminess. After you lynch me you'll find I was telling the truth about that. "

Ok. Seems to be your defense... you do go on to say

"...wouldnt it be neat if late confirmation might lead to lynching. It might positively affect behavior and speed up game starts."

After rereading I have concluded that I ought to have written:

Post 17: I'm a townie and I wanted to lynch on bad info

Post 26: I'm a townie... omgus

"If you do and you're a townie yer gonna regret it if ya vote for me cuz I am 100 ppercent townie."

and

"Anyway, now that you've spread the falsehood that I feigned knowing nothing should I suspect YOUUUUU? I think maybe I should."

Seems consistant with my characterization.

post 32: I'm a newbie and you guys are too serious!

"I'd heard (again from the "mouth") that people take this game seriously. I can see that's true. You'll understand me better if you picture a playful wink."

Again, consistant, except you are right. This is where you introduce your chaos theory of mafia. Not in post 43 as I had indicated.

Post 43: I'm newbie but isn't this just a game of luck anyways?

"I'm pretty clearly a noob going on imperfect information or a scum pretending to be one."

the second paragraph you maintain that inconsistancy is less suspicious that consistancy.

"Better me than some other townie that didn't screw up."

another use of the "I'm a townie defense"?

fourth paragraph attacks Flay.

"I dunno, I have to tell you that at least at THIS point with a game with 7 people, this still feels like a game of Battleship to me."

another assertion of your chaos theory.

Post 47: I'm a newbie and I don't believe in scumtells

"Cicero does not believe scumtells are all that effective and that newbie games given their size are largely about luck."

and

"Now. Unlike all of you (well 4 of you), I am in the position of knowing that I am not scum. So now I ask myself - what would I be doing if I WAS scum. Right now, because of Cicero's loud mouth noobness"

Post 55: I'm a townie (BTW can we lynch somebody quickly)

"Anyway, hurry up and lynch someone wouldja. If it's me, so be it. At least you wont have killed the cop or the doctor. And the good news is you'll finally know that I'm just a dumbass noob townie being cavalier. "

oh..and

"I'm TOWNIE!"

Post 62: I'm a townie and this game isn't fun.

"I play games for fun. So far the fun quotient here is wanting. Are all mafia games like this? "

"As near as I can figure I am super-townie because I am the only thing generating any discussion whatsoever.

"

admittedly not exactly a "I'm a townie" argument

Post 89: I triple dog DARE you to lynch me. BTW I never used I am a townie as a defense.

"Hey! Townies! I triple dog DARE you to lynch me. By the way. If you read my posts, yelling "I'm townie" wasnt my defense. Yelling "Im newbie" was my defensive."

[pwayne66]

. If you don't want it mentioned don't do it. Don't expect some detente from me. We are still talking up Flays lynch -1, and all of my suspicion comes from my lynch -1 on page one of Andy. And you think you can do that and not get scrutinised? Feeeeerget it. And if you think you have a better argument re my scumminess than the one you made in that post, I'd surely love to hear it.

Are you kidding? I don't want to be accused of mischaracterizations again, but these are your claims in your last few pages:

1) The only suspicious thing I have done is on page one.

2) Pwayne is mischaracterizing me

3) I'm a townie

4) I'm a townie

5) I never used the I'm a townie defense

6) I am one of the few people who hasn't lied in this game



As far as your questions go. I don't know if I buy either Elias or Rime's theory.

[pwayne66]

Rime Ice Fury- Thinks that voting Elias is the first step to off a Elias/Quinn mafia team and has presented a thorough (albeit heavily contested) case for his belief.

cicero- Finds several people suspicious but but has yet to put all his eggs in a basket.

Andycyca- Town awaiting his input. His last post of substance he cast suspicion on myself and RIF.

Quinnster- Was leaning towards a Rime-Flay theory but may have new insights after his reread.

pwayne66- Thinks that voting off Cicero is the order of the day, but doesn't like having strings attached by scumbuddy theories.

Elias_the_thief- Thinks voting Cicero will break open the plot by Cicero and RIF and has also been very thorough with his presentation.

Mr. Flay- As near as I can tell likes the idea of lynching RIF. I have yet to see any real attempt by him to convince anybody else though (please correct me if I missed it)

It seems that this is where we stand. Everybody seems to have their own theory (maybe due to a reluctance to bandwagon) If Quinn and Andy come back with new theories I might kill myself.

As for myself, I haven't reviewed the Elias/Quinn and RIF/Cicerio theories as closely as I should.

[pwayne66]

...I don't think so, No lynch leads to going into N1 with 7 players and starting day two with 6 (due to the night kill) meaning that the ratio would be 4-2. Right? I'm posting on the fly so I may be wrong...

[pwayne66]

Before I vote, does anybody want to make a case for not lynching cicero?

[pwayne66]

What sez you Flay? I think the town is ready for a lynch but I think we need to be certain that everybody had a chance to talk in order to avoid any day two backpeddeling. I willing to cast my vote for Cicero but I am afraid that he will lynch himself before you can state your objections.

[pwayne66]

I thought that both Andy's and RIF's post lacked any real input. I didn't think they were scummy (nor did I think one was scummier than the other because it seems their post were almost identical). I was disappointed they were not more subsantial in idicating one way or another how they felt about lynch cicero.

[pwayne66]

What's more in post 198 you said in response to Elias' theory that Cicero should be lynched:

"I'm not responding because I pretty much share the theory, but the very fact that you're so certain of it is more scummy than anything else in your post. "

This is an interesting switch. I am not upset that you won't jump aboard the Cicero wagon, just that you claim to have expressed your reservations about lynching Cicero and I can't find where. You had a very weak case against RIF and changed it in favor of an even weaker case against andy. This is distressing.

[pwayne66]

...why am I concerned about what others think? I stated that I wanted everybody to approve of the Cicero lynch before we did it. Now I am glad I did. If you feel that you honestly have a stronger case against Andy then you should be glad too.

[pwayne66]

And I love the desperate nature of so many of your post. Futility vs. hopelessness. If they think there is order they are idiots. If they think they stand a chance at finding scum, they are idiots.
Yes anybody certainly COULD be an idiot. So more so than others...

[pwayne66]

Vote:Cicero

it seems that everytime we try to focus on somebody else , cicero becomes attention starved an starts begging to get lynched. This doesn't mean Flay is off the hook, just that we can't focus on him until Cicero is gone.

[pwayne66]

I didn't say I thought you were scum, although intellectual blackmail is pretty damn scummy...

I said I don't think we can get anything done until you are gone. Quinn Elias and I are trying to hold Flay's feet to the fire and you are intent on derailing the whole game because you are bored.

[pwayne66]

perfect... Flay has a set of perfectly legitamate concerns to answer but he manages to finish up his rounds (and day 1) by ignoring them because he has a buffer of 8 or so BS posts shielding him... merry christmas flay.

[pwayne66]

1st- the last few posts where cicero and myself were argueing about irrelevant stuff.

2nd- were Quinn said "Could you please explain why you don't suspect Cicero anymore?"

3rd- where I asked where you stated your objections to Cicero. You listed the posts. the posts were bunk and Quinn asked you what in the posts state your objections about lynching cicero.

[pwayne66]

UNVOTE: Cicero

more to come....

[pwayne66]

Yes, you do get my goat. I am not going to lynch you because of it though. I also want to hear what Flay has to say (with any luck he will have posted while I am typing this)

Sorry. In all honesty, I'm not trying to. And I'm not at all sure why me posting anything should stop you from focussing on flay. Can't the two things happen simultaneously in a forum system? Just reply to his posts and ignore mine.

The way I see it. Quinn and I were asking important questions of Flay, which was the direct result of the first interesting info that we have had in days. You came along and made fun of the conclusions and the questions and subsequently "stole our thunder". I could have ignored it. If I had ignored it, the distraction would not have been so bad. In that way, I contributed to it.

- do they actually think I'm scum?
- do you think scum would want to keep me alive to distract the town and would they bother to play that way ond day one?
- what information could you find out if it turned out I was town?
- Note who is working hard and who isn't: Flay and Andy posting much less analysis than anyone else.

1) Some do. I think RIF does at least.
2) this assumes that you are not scum. If not, I would imagine scum would like to keep you around.
3) I have thought about this and nearly posted it. I imagine the next step is to assume that either Elias and/or me are scum.
4) I have noted.

[pwayne66]

...well those also...

My doubts about cicero are in posts 145, 155, and (to an extent) 185.

these are the ones I was referencing.

[pwayne66]

Me too. When I think about it though, there is one WIFOMesqu wrinkle I need to puzzle out. At this moment, the people under most suspicion are the ones least wanting to lynch me. So this principle points to you, Flay, and Rime. Mostly to Flay. But the idea of wanting me alive only makes sense if they don't get lynched instead. Doesn't it? After all, all townies need to get killed eventually, right? Comments anyone?

Assuming your not scum, you can look at it two ways. Scum might want to keep you around but only if it means not getting lynched themselves (as you said) or scum might be happy to take an easy mislynch especially if one of them were town suspect #2. That's the danger of WIFOM I guess.

As far as Elias and I being suspect #1 and #2 day two in the event that you are lynched and end up being a townie, the town has to be suspicious of us. It doesn't prove anything, but its the best place to start. I believe that is why we have all the hesitation from Andy, RIF and Flay. Who wants to be the guy that voted (or worse: hammered) a townie going into day two. It's a lot better to be the guy that sits back and says "that was pretty scummy pal!" but didn't do anything to stop it when they had a chance.

Flay is suspicious of two people for very weak reasons. He claims to hold the position that you shouldn't be lynch but hasn't provided any reasons and apparently he thinks that 36 hours is enough time for him to change his mind about you. I suspect that he really thinks that it is about enough time for him to appear charitable by hammering you.

I have to

Vote: Mr. Flay

[pwayne66]

...

[pwayne66]

Well, I am Flay's #4. Considering the strength of his case against the first 3, coupled with his "gut" dismissal of the "Cicero" case, I am not overly concerned.

Cicero is back to wanting lynched again.

My top two stay the same and in the same order.

#1 Cicero
#2 Flay

I need some more from RIF and Andy who are the only two abstainers at this point. [/b]

[pwayne66]

..make that first two... I think #3 is cicero. So, if you are shooting for our "best shot", what makes Andy fit this criteria?

[pwayne66]

I think that we have learned all that we are going to learn today.

I will

UNVOTE: Flay

and cast a freshly blind

Vote:Cicero

[pwayne66]

Give me some time to look over what has happened already.

[pwayne66]

So, what have we learned.

1) RIF is not scum as Elias had predicted.
2) Does Flay cease to be suspicious in light of Cicero's innocence?
3) andy? Not sure where to place him in the hierarchy
4) Elias? my spidey-sence tingles a bit in his presence but I have nothing in the way of evidence
5) Quinn? If he is scum then he is damn good.

How do we feel about the Cicero's bandwagon.? I believe that there is some truth to the theory about at least one (if not both) scum being on a town lynching D1. That's Elias_the_thief, Quinnster, Andycyca, and me.

Is Flay's abstainence from this vote still significant? These are the things that I would like to discuss.

[pwayne66]

Reasons for voting me off were already articulated? Is this kind of like your phantom defense of Cicero or my phantom defense of you that occurred earlier?

If not, as near as I can tell, you argued for me being the fourth most likely scum (behind RIF, Cicero, and Andy). Why have I elevated in status above Andy?

As far as arguing for both sides of the cicero lynch/guilt debate, I was arguing nothing, only saying where my head is at this point and asking for input.

Oh and for the record, significant does not mean scummy... unless you have a guilty conscience...

[pwayne66]

I am hesitant to try to look too much into the NK. A whole flurry of assumptions could be made based on WIFOM premises. Being that the mafia are the only ones that know which glass of wine is poisoned, I just as soon not play.

The way I see it, the NK only tells us one thing, RIF was a townie.

[pwayne66]

thanks andy.

1. flay
2. andy
3. elias
4. quinn

flay, I have stated why. andy's first two post of day two seem a bit contrived (may be the language thing) first post seems to set himself up to lurk. second post speculates on the NK (I know, weak tell...) and it handsomely sets up Flay's speculation about Elias (my hat is officially in the ring in the scumpair theory race...).

Elias I have stated as well. Flay's theory doesn't hold for me, but if not for andy's day 2 posts, Elias would be my #2 suspect just on gut.

I will try to piece together a more solid andy/flay connection when I am more sober (hey...it's my birthday...)

[pwayne66]

I didn't mean to suggest that you were lurking, b/c you are not. I only meant to say that when I see posts that say "I'm going to have to reread" or "This could take a while to sort out" I know it COULD be a play to justify an absence.

As far as the nightkill comments go, this is why I feel we can't trust them. I am highly suspicious of anybody that tries to use them in their case. We know that the mafia killed RIF for some reason. For all we know it was to make Elias look like he was mafia. It could be that RIF was reluctant to lynch, not a quality that the mafia wants from a day two townie.

My statement is just about a how nearly perfect your post and Flay's post coincided. Flay posts "Figuring out why RIF was killed is the best avenue" then you post "hey, maybe it was because of who he suspected in the game" and the Flay says "Hm, good point, lets see...he was kind of suspicious of Elias... you don't think Elias is scum do you?" and you say "hey! he is my number 1 suspect!" Of course this is a not proof and it could be a coincidence, but if there is a real case against Elias, I want to hear it. If your case is only this NK theory, I am going to continue to be suspicious.

[pwayne66]

I'm all for taking our time and working this out, but if we don't have a discussion with input from all parties, it doesn't matter how long we take.

[pwayne66]

I look foward to the post from Quinn and Flay. I have a feeling they will tell me more than anything else at this point. I think it would benefit us if we got a suspect list with analysis from Elias as well.

[pwayne66]

Similarly, pwayne's use of cicero's spreadsheet yields three names at the top of the "point scale", two of which are now dead. Who's the other one? Me, how convenient.

So, correct me if I am wrong, but are you saying that I used everybody else's list and votes to deceive them into believing that the "third time is the charm"? That somehow I snuck into everybody else's account and posted their scum lists so that I could make the following arguement:

"well town, I know we were wrong the first two times, but trust me. I am right about Flay"

pwayne blinked when I threatened to hammer cicero in 36 hours (posts 255 and 261). I'm not sure why he went ahead with it once Andy voted, except that it leaves RIF and myself off the townie lynch and Quinn and Andy on it.

It wasn't blinking... it was eye rolling. There is a difference albeit a subtle one. If you recall, I was concerned with your "having your cake and eating it too" play.

[pwayne66]

Well at any rate, that leaves us here:

Flay and Andy seem to be the best combo (Flay more so than andy really). Elias and Quinn need a case built against them before I am willing to budge.

That being said, I have no interest in voting until I hear Quinn's and Elias' POV.

[pwayne66]

You misunderstand (I think) what I mean by "blink". I said I'd call your bluff and vote cicero if you left him at L-1. You promptly unvoted (which is what I thought you'd do) and started in on me

this is what I misunderstand: You have, on a couple of occasions, congratulated yourself for "calling my bluff" on Cicero. This seems to suggest that I didn't want Cicero lynched and you knew I didn't. Is this your stance?

Looking back over Day 1, there's NO ONE who even came close to being as suspicious as cicero, so why the digression and then eventual lynch anyway? It seems like you were antagonizing me on purpose.

And me antagonizing you on purpose would indicate what?

You are right though, nobody was as suspicious as Cicero. You and your "gut" knew better, but the rest of us thought so anyway.

I unvoted because I was waiting for a response from you. I didn't want a hammer before you answered the questions that were asked. You answered the questions.

I asked for another responce from RIF and Andy. They responded. I hammered.

[pwayne66]

By the way, what does 'freshly blind" mean here??

Cicero had just finished commenting that I was going to pluck my eyes out or something of the sort.

Nothing new in the rest of it. If anybody else wants answers I will address them but Flay already knows them. They have already been addressed.

Oh, and FLay: You can't have it both ways... I either did or I did not want Cicero lynched. You can't twist my motives around to prove whatever point you are trying to prove for the moment and then change it back when it doesn't work anymore.

[pwayne66]

I doesn't surprise me that you came to that conclusion.

[pwayne66]

I am going to review and post my case tomorrow. Nothing I have seen today changes my mind is so far.

[pwayne66]

Mr. Flay deliberatly distanced himself from the Cicero lynch by systematically voting and unvoting for RIF and Andy. All the while, he failed to provide evidence for either RIF or Andy. This is best demonstrated by starting at post 234:

Where Flay says:

Sorry, past weekend was Orbiting's birthday party, and I "got a better offer" than sitting online... Twisted Evil

I'm not crazy about the "lynch cicero just in case" option being laid forth, for reasons I've already mentioned. But it does have the strategic advantage that we'll suddenly know whether all of his reactions have been honest or manipulative.
Andy's last post reeks of scum, though. Unvote: RIF who has gotten more helpful talkative lately, Vote: Andycyca - still only one vote, but I rank him much higher than cicero.

There is so much data in this post I would like to break it down piece by piece:

I'm not crazy about the "lynch cicero just in case" option being laid forth, for reasons I've already mentioned.

We have been over it, but those "reasons" are as follows:

Flay from post 145:

“As I've already said, RIF is my top suspect, and he's back, so Unvote, Vote: Rime Ice Fury. Then Andycyca, then cicero (who keeps pogoing up and down my list).”

We know that this is not a statement of reason why not to vote Cicero, mearly a list of suspects.

Flay from post 155:

[offtopic]I look forward to playing with you in another game, with all you've learned in this one, by the way.[/offtopic]

An off topic comment about the prospect of future games is not a reason not to vote cicero.

And Flay from post 185:

Goddamn, cicero, you were doing so well, too. If you get lynched with your own vote on yourself, you've negated us one piece of information for tomorrow. Please unvote and let us talk further.

Commented on how well a player had been playing up to a point (what does playing well mean anyway?)

When finally pressed, Flay confesses that his reluctance to lynch Cicero was based on "gut instinct".

Despite numerous claims that Cicero was the scummiest player, Flay maintains a strategy of randomly voting and unvoting between Andy and RIF. Which brings us to the next portion of post 234:

Andy's last post reeks of scum, though

and [Vote:Andycyca]

Of course Flay was refering to this quote by andy:

pwayne66 wrote:
Before I vote, does anybody want to make a case for not lynching cicero?


Now that you mention it, I don't have any.

This post is immediatley followed by

Posts 231 and 230 by RIF

I don't have a case against not lynching him either.

Guess we wait for Mr. Flay to post.

and

Er, I don't have a case against lynching him, I mean.

Flay uses the differences between the three posts to justify his voting for Andy... well those three posts and this from post 234: Mr. Flay

Unvote: RIF who has gotten more helpful talkative lately,

This might seem legitatmet had Flay ever cited a lack of posting as a reason to vote RIF in the first place. Instead we get:

Post 82 Flay:

I don't know why, but I'm having a hard time getting a read on her. Main scummy point is the "silly names" thing, because it's been very distracting to me. Seems like a scum tactic to confuse at the beginning of the game, but that's a very weak tell.

He vote's for "her" because she advocates the use of silly names.

Post 99 Flay:

I voted Rime to see what some of the other people around her on my list would do.

Post 145 Flay:

As I've already said, RIF is my top suspect, and he's back so Unvote, Vote: Rime Ice Fury.

In post 170, RIF asks

Mr. Flay, would you state your case against me once more, please?

This question was never answered. Instead Flay changed his vote to Andy for no good reason (once again) and killed RIF that night.


part II coming...

[pwayne66]

running through working on second part. In the interest of fairness

Flay post #274

As for Rime Ice Fury, in 209 he admits to having found flaws in his own theory. This is a very pro-town thing to do, because scum generally only have bad theories/logic, so there's no sense in them debunking their own bad arguments; they should wait for someone else to do so. He also explains some of his thought process, which had been lacking somewhat up until then.

210 is simply good theory discussion; while not as strongly pro-town as 209, it's engaged and rational, and obviates the ability for RIF-scum to take advantage of No Lynch ideas later in the game, if he was so inclined. So another reason for me to knock him down on my list.

...as a response to Andy's question about his last vote change. As far as part II goes. I am lacking confidence in it at the moment. There might not be a part II "Flay's scumbuddy", but I will keep digging.

[pwayne66]

What the heck. Take it for what it is worth, maybe it can help in some way...

My case: Andy and Flay are partners.

This occured to me in post 309 by Flay

I'm back in town. Haven't read up fully, but will do so tonight or tomorrow.

Right now I'm inclined toward pwayne, based on arguments already articulated yesterday. The fact that he wants to argue both for one scum being on the lynch and my abstinence being significant is ... well, significant. But obviously, no vote yet.

Best angle of attack on this will be to figure out why RIF died, I'm thinking.

In post 311, I post my objections:

Reasons for voting me off were already articulated? Is this kind of like your phantom defense of Cicero or my phantom defense of you that occurred earlier?

If not, as near as I can tell, you argued for me being the fourth most likely scum (behind RIF, Cicero, and Andy). Why have I elevated in status above Andy?

The questions, where were his articulated arguments that he refered to, and why I jumped above Andy on his list. Were never addressed.

From Post 324 I share this:

My statement is just about a how nearly perfect your post and Flay's post coincided. Flay posts "Figuring out why RIF was killed is the best avenue" then you post "hey, maybe it was because of who he suspected in the game" and the Flay says "Hm, good point, lets see...he was kind of suspicious of Elias... you don't think Elias is scum do you?" and you say "hey! he is my number 1 suspect!"

As indicated in thread, I went back and did some looking. I admit, I didn't find much.
Post #6 Andy

Vote: Mr. Flay

post #7 Flay

Interesting. Vote: Andycyca for being opportunistic.

post #21 Cicero

I'm suspicious of Andycyca and Mr. Flay who are hangin' back, being quiet and who voted for each other in rapid succession. Isn't that an old scum trick?

post #29 Flay

your supposed "distancing" between Andy and I is a little transparent, don't you think?

post #28 and #29 andy and Flay unvote each other. Andy never votes for Flay again.

[pwayne66]

Nor do I expect you to. I am less inclined to believe that Andy is Flay's partner. If not that means that you or Elias are. I am actively looking for those indications. I'm committed to Flay though.

For the record, it irks me to no end to be appealing my case to you. The more I consider this situation the more I hate it and the more alarming it becomes to consider that this vote swings on a noncofirmed player.

[pwayne66]

...you seem awful certain all of the sudden...

Vote:Flay

[pwayne66]

unvote: flay

let's test his theory. Who wants to jump on the wagon? My guess is the next one will be scum and then begins the campaign to entice a townie on board. Is that the plan Flay?

[pwayne66]

In this, Flay and I are in complete agreement. I am not satisfied sitting back and letting Quinn choose who to kill today. We need some serious conversation and quick. The less conversation we have, the more likely somebody is going to get pissed and pull the plug on the whole operation.

So far, Quinn has stuck his head in every few days to say how perplexed he is and then sets about subtlety reminding us it is him who casts the deciding vote.

Elias has said that he is leaning towards Flay and Andy.

Andy is seems to be trying to contribute while Flay and I bicker endless amongst ourselves. What is really going to piss me off is if Flay and I have been going at each other and neither of us are scum.

My scumdar:

Flay- You know who I feel.

Andy- Again, you know.

Quinn- Could have hammered anybody he wanted today and didn't. He is either town or exceptional sadistic. The more I wait for him to post some content the more I imagine him at his keyboard and giggling as a hapless town rips itself apart.

Elias- As much as I feel like I ought to be kissing ass, I haven't been thrilled with his lack of conviction or content day 2 either. I has occurred to me that after the Cicero and RIF debacle that he may be lacking confidence in his judgment. It could also be that he is waiting for a townie to land two votes so he can end this thing without causing suspicion by going after anybody.

@Andy, my case on you centers around two things. First, what appeared to be distancing by Flay at the beginning of day 2, when I was elevated above you as his most suspicious. Second, also at the beginning of day 2, when both you and Flay synchronized your respective logic to point at Elias being scum. Admittedly, my case revolves around Flay's actions and the assumption that he is scum. This makes the case somewhat weak. However, with a serious lack of any competing theories, it is the front runner in my mind.

For the record, I will not cast a vote for

anybody

until somebody else sticks their neck out and offers some content, thoughts and questions. Namely Quinn and Elias.

[pwayne66]

So wait...EVERYONE suspects Flay?

Am I alone in thinking that this post seems oddly placed following this one by Andy?

Whoa! I had to reread the whole thread in one single shot. RIF said in 190 that a possible pair is Elias & Quinn. Maybe his theory was'nt the best, but now, as a gut feeling, feels kinda possible. I'd like your gut feelings and/or thoughts on Elias & Quinn as scumbuddies

It seems that everybody has been suspicious of Flay for days (it not weeks). It is odd that following a post about you and Elias as possible scum, you choose to acknowledge this fact...

[pwayne66]

... I just say so b/c this seems to be a preamble by Quinn to say "well hell, if we ALL think Flay is scum, lets just vote." All following the first real dialouge that included anybody other than me, Flay or Andy being scum.

[pwayne66]

As far as RIF's theory goes, the only thing that gives it any validity is the fact that he is dead (well that and the fact that Quinn doesn't seem to want to talk about it). Which goes back to us trying to divine the mafia's intent when killing RIF.

For that matter Andy, you brought up RIF's theory before. The time you mentioned though, you focused only on Elias and ignored the fact that RIF's theory included Quinn and Elias. Why?

[pwayne66]

What I meant by my post was: if the mafia can win today by making us lynch a townie, and everyone suspects Flay, does that not put Flay in a townie position? If he was scum, SOMEONE would be trying to divert attention. Not saying he's off my list, it's just an observation I had.

I misunderstood. As far as everybody being suspicious of FLay and what it indicates: It indicates that this is the weakest and worst point of my play. The whole WIFOM analysis gives me a head ache. For this reason, I tend to favor going on a lynch by lynch basis. This being LyLo though, I don't think it is that smart.

To combat what Elias is saying, that Flay's partner would bus him at this point, it would probably be wise to find out who was one of the last people to post suspicions of him once he began to look scummy.

To combat what Andy is saying, that Flay's partner would try to divert attention, obviously, we look for instances where people have tried to divert attention.

The problem with this is, we are likely to find two different people and there is a STRONG chance that either Elias or Andy have a patsy all lined up to go along with their respective theories, which makes the wine in front of my very dry and bitter.

It's late... I'll post more on each scenario tomorrow...

[pwayne66]

I'm sorry, but maybe Flay had the right idea.

Vote: Mr Flay

If you guys have something to say (which apparently you don't), now is the time.

[pwayne66]

Nobody is slipping up until somebody starts posting...
besides, nobody is going to defend him now that it makes them a marked man for doing so... unless we consider stalling his lynch defending him.


I'm working two angles myself #1 being, general lack of curiosity. Who seems the least interested in finding out who is scum and #2 being who is trying the hardest to cover their asses today.

So, if not now, when?

[pwayne66]

The question about Andy? Its relevant to tomorrow discussion, so I understand this position. Andy promises a post tomorrow as well. We should probably hear him out before a lynch. However, my vote stays.

The way I see it, if Flay's town then we have lost anyway, besides, Elias and Quinn already passed up a quick lynch opportunity.

[pwayne66]

I'm not sure it proves anything. It indicates this: If flay were town, quinn and elias are less likely to be partners.

[pwayne66]

I would like to hear from Quinn as well.

As far as the bandwagon thing goes. If Flay is town, I think it would make sense that both scum are on the wagon if Quinn had posted since the Andy vote. The point being that if elias was scum and flay was town, elias would have hammered and won.

Quinn could still be scum in the "Flay as a townie" scenario, since he has no post to prove that he passed up a chance to lynch.

[pwayne66]

jerk

[pwayne66]

I may not be an IC, but I am not completely naive either. Being an IC in no way prohibits you from being scum. If it's all the same to you, I'd like to shoulder some of the burden.

Anyway, you are right. No voting please. I'll have more later.

[pwayne66]

Alright, an update before I do a read through.

My thoughts toward the end of day two were this:

If Flay were scum, then his partner would likely bus him. The reason for this is with 3 votes needed, one man would be suspicious as the lone person who didn't lynch scum. Flay's partner wouldn't want to be that guy so he would jump on the wagon as quickly as possible.

Enter Andy, who I thought would be Flay's partner. I was surprised that he initially was reluctant to jump onboard (as I said, I was thinking that scum would be eager to do so). It wasn't much of a surprise though considering that both Elias and Quinn warned against hastiness, it seems that it would be a logical play.

This has me feeling pretty good that Andy is Flay's partner. But then things get sticky. With one vote needed, Elias begins to (IMO) overdo the "I don't know guys this is making me nervous" act without trying to dissuade the lynch. He even makes the same play that Flay did day one (saying he would lynch later) that made me suspicious of him in the first place.

Flay then, of course, kills himself and robs us of some significant info. Day three and Elias, who has been consistently level headed still seems extremely ansy...again almost like he is acting.

Anyway, that wraps up my stream of conscience post. I will do a read through and post something more concrete. Feel free to comment on my suspicion though.

[pwayne66]

I'd like to point out first that I had no reason, with the kind of post I did before flay selfvoted, to NOT bus flay were I his partner. Why delay it?

This was my thought and reason for thinking Andy.

I would say Flay selfvoting is odd if his partner had already promised to bus him

I'm not sure if I understand. Flay's selfvote is significant. I would just as soon not consider it though as that is a long an WIFOMy path.

No, the remaining scum was on his wagon. This is obvious to me because I am the only living player who was no on flays wagon.

I can appreciate this. Of course from my angle, either you or Andy are scum. From Andy's angle (if he is town) either you or I are scum.

From my angle the other scum either was or was not on the wagon. I can think that scum would be on the wagon to avoid being the only one not to lynch but then again, why would scum play into my expectation now? I know, WIFOM, but I'm just saying I'm not trusting anything right now.

In response to the "lynch later" point, how is what I did a scumtell? It is a town tell in my opinion (waiting for everyone to check in before hammering).

Perhaps I over stated the case. It is pro-town and I didn't mean to imply it was a scumtell, just that I called Flay out for the same thing day 1. I realize though, that the context was different.

[pwayne66]

I stated my case against Andy yesterday. There is really nothing to add to it other than the admittedly WIFOMy Flaywagon theory.

Andy does seem genuine in his analysis and contribution though.

I have never had any more on you than a hunch, and that hasn't changed really. I did state yesterday that I thought that the person that covered their ass yesterday the most would be my suspect today. I think that person has to be elias (well really quinne and then elias). Andy seemed to have no problem posting content but Elias had few posts with less content. I'm not sure that makes him scum. In fact I still lean more heavily towards Andy.

As far as my suspicions of Flay: I was suspicous of him pretty quick (so was Quinn). I didn't really start thinking about him though until the end of day one.

[pwayne66]

The case against Andy seems to be this-

From Elias:

"Firstly, Andy had a protown/ neutral view of Flay pretty much up until yesterday."

-Andy claims 288 shows suspicion of Flay. Elias doesn't think so and neither do I.

But your posts (as I've said) seem evasive for me

This is the type of post that is made by just about every player by just about every player at some point in the game.


"Flay made several weak little attacks on Andy"

-I, like Andy, am not sure what to make of this. It is noteworthy though.

"Andy was the quietest during the case section"

-not sure about this one or that any defense is even needed.


"He also tried to hurry yesterdays lynch"

-Still a point of contention. I see little here though. Andy says he saw little left to discuss. So did I.

And then the case from me:

First, what appeared to be distancing by Flay at the beginning of day 2, when I was elevated above you as his most suspicious. Second, also at the beginning of day 2, when both you and Flay synchronized your respective logic to point at Elias being scum. Admittedly, my case revolves around Flay's actions and the assumption that he is scum.

Andy says that this is a coincidence it could be. I find it interesting to note that in post 363, Andy stands to face his accusers:

Pwayne and Elias, I would like you to state why you suspect of me.

and in post 364, Flay steals the spotlight:

Vote: pwayne66

@Elias- Why did you suspect Andy at this point?

I will post again soon with a Elias case recap as well.

[pwayne66]

I thought about this and forgot to comment. We should analyze. I don't know what we learn though.

From one angle: If Elias is scum, Andy was suspect #1 and I, unlike Quinn, have indicated that I was leaning towards Andy. It is the ideal setup for Elias, who only has to convince me to react to my feelings and then he hammers for the scum win.

On the flip side, with Andy as scum, I don't see him benefiting from the current setup. Both Elias and I having stated that we suspecting him, I would think that Andy would NK one of us and keep Quinn around. But who knows?

Which brings me again to my aversion to speculating on the NK. For all I know, Andy persists on asking us to speculate about the benefits because he knows that I will come to this conclusion... I hate this game... I really do...

[pwayne66]

I can't think of loads of anything else to add. I can't tell you why to vote for andy and not me. I am becoming alarmed at the lengths that you are going in order to maintain that Andy and I are the only ones that are worthy of scrutiny or subject to interrogation.

@Elias- Why did you suspect Andy at this point?

[pwayne66]

I asked for clarification on what "at this point" meant. You never clarified.

I don't see where that happens... but anyway, in post 363, Andy asks:

Pwayne and Elias, I would like you to state why you suspect of me.

I answered but you did not. I'm not sure if you even did suspect him (he thought you did), but if so, I would be curious to know.

[pwayne66]

Also, in response to Pwayne: Today actually hinges on two nonconfirmed votes, not just one. I mean, its not like I'm putting myself in any more power then had I not said that: If I'm town, I'm getting the most info before I make my decision. If I am scum, I will use the info to vote, and there will be no one to complete it for a quicklynch, thus confirming me as scum. So whats your problem with me asking that question?

I don't have a problem with the question itself. I was only trying to point out that every post that you have made today seem to be you reiterating that either Andy or I are scum. I would expect a townie to think this, but not necessarily say this in every post. That coupled with what I saw as ducking my question today, avoiding posting too much content yesterday and a campaign that seemingly consisted of repeating "quinn and I are not scum so everybody else, duke it out!" It rubbed me wrong yesterday and it rubs me wrong today.

[pwayne66]

oh, and I assume by "that question" you mean the one that is asking me to tell you why to vote for andy and not me? This is the sort of question I would expect from a person that wants andy and I to focus on each other and not on you. So yes, I lied. I do have a problem with the question itself.

[pwayne66]

I don't think it is a scum tell. Perhaps it is a personal issue. As I have stated, I feel as though Flay, Andy and myself have been warding off attacks from one another, throwing accusations at each other and appealing to either you and/or Quinn while leaving you guys alone for the most part. Maybe I was curious how you would react if you came under any real scrutiny, I don't know.

I think my suspicions and observations are legitimate, but not necessarily outweighing my suspicions of Andy so far.

[pwayne66]

As far as your set theory goes, I was impressed with the effort. And imagine that it works great as a personal tool, and it explains why you were leaning towards Elias. However, I didn't think that it could be used as a town tool as several sets were missing (ie { {Andy, Flay} and so on. I don't fault you for this, I just didn't think it was helpful to me b/c I can't afford to assume that you are not scum. I should have, at least commented on it though.

[pwayne66]

Nobody told me anything about it in the remaining of the day. This can only mean one of thwo things:

1. No one suspects me based on actions of my own or...
2. The final bandwagon stole the spotlights from every other topic in this game.

I totally missed this from andy. #1 I can sympathize with. The meat of the case I have built against you is based on action that both you and Flay took. This case becomes stronger because of the fact that flay is scum. You have answered for the case and I cannot argue with your answer. This case is, however the only one that I have.

#2 I am not sure I follow exactly.

Anyway, long story short: I intend to vote for you tomorrow. The case against you is stronger than the case against Elias. You seem to be leaning toward Elias and the reasons you seem willing to do so seem to be your set theory. (If I am wrong, please correct me) This case does nothing to prove to me that you are not scum and elias is. Do you have a case that does that?

Elias, I have made my case that Andy is scum. I have no case that I am not. I will answer any concerns either of you have about me though.

[pwayne66]

I agree.

Vote:Andy

[pwayne66]

Good game everybody. Flay did provide me cover going into day 3, that was a huge help. I was really close to claiming cop coming into day 3. It seemed like a perfect time to do it but I couldn't bring myself to... it seemed too risky.

[pwayne66]

@cicero- I don't know why RIF. Flay and I didn't discuss the night kill... he was out of town and honestly, I accidently hammered you... I didn't see that andy had put you at lynch -1. I waited as long as I could and then put in RIF in panic. Quinn would have been a better choice. If I remember right, Flay messaged before the end of night that he wanted either quinn or elias.

[pwayne66]

I didn't see you. I don't know if I forgot to refresh from the previous night or what, but the next morning, I wanted to put my vote back on cicero and not be the guy that hammered, so I did... only to find that you voted and you and RIF asked anybody that objected to speak up. I figured that nobody would have believed me if I mentioned in game so I just acted like it was what I intended. I was really surprised that nobody grilled me about it. I thought that the cicero lynch was terribly suspicious. It might have just been my guilty conscience....

Speaking of cicero, I actually agreed with a good deal of what he said. This game, from my newbie perspective, is hugely about luck. In reality it seems to be more about politics than logic. His comments did, however, provide a nice staging ground for some faux righteous indignation and exaggerated frustration.

I'm still a newb myself, but I think that you played well. The only reason I targeted you for the day three lynch was the coincidental posting of you and flay.

As far as quinn goes, he couldn't have protected himself:

You are the Doctor, and you can protect people from harm. Each Night, you may send me a choice via PM of who to protect; if they come under attack by the Mafia, they will live. You win if the scum are eliminated, so choose wisely at Night, and try to lynch correctly during the Day.

Note: Doctors are 100% effective in Newbie Games (the person they protect will never die on the night they are protected). You may not protect yourself.

[pwayne66]

It my opinion that scum is an easy role. Scum hunting is impossibly difficult and overwhelming for me. As scum, you know what side everybody is on. You know who is safe to defend and who is safe to lynch. You also realize that most townies are looking for a good reason to lynch anybody (this makes it very dangerous and frustrating to be a blind vanilla newbie that is poking and prodding the town looking for scum).

Everybody in this game was very attentive and careful which was maddening at times. I tend to think that I play too conservative as scum, I tried to take more chances this game but I couldn't bring myself to do it. I really wanted to claim cop day 3 as I was 90% sure that there wasn't one. I even typed up a claim post that cited a guilty investigation on Flay and then on Andy. I felt it was a solid play, but I chickened out. There was a still a chance that Elias was a cop and did well hiding it. Claiming an investigation on Andy only to have Elias counterclaim could have been devastating.