Newbie 1744 - Game Over

[copper223]

VOTE: TownCop
You Sir, are clearly fake claiming .

[copper223]

@Gideon / HS
I'd like to get every new player's first post and then we can get to your questions.

[copper223]

There is no reason to delay any sorts of reasons you may have this early.

There sure is as some of the players don't appear to know what RVS is, making this phase more interesting.

How do you come to the conclusion that there was no possible reason for me wanting to wait?

[copper223]

How do you come to the conclusion that there was no possible reason for me wanting to wait?

One reply at a time.

[copper223]

I hate playing with VI's or people that pretend to be, I suspect you pulled that statement out of your ass because

you

would not have delayed.

It's impossible for me to use a question that I asked

before

you followed up to avoid answering, unfortunately I haven't invented time travel yet.

Newbies posting without knowing about RVS may be revealing because it's a situation where the town and scum win-cons lead to different incentives on how to react, namely newbie townies are more likely to want to understand what is going on.

My reply was tied to the above because I was going to explain what RVS is to Gideon by linking the wiki page (hello IC).

[copper223]

How the fuck does that make me a VI?

You are not the god of mafia come to earth, that means you don't get to decide what is relevant and what is not in order to read other players, at best you can say it's irrelevant for you and you suspect it might be in general if there is no good explanation, the fact you appear or pretend not to understand this distinction is what makes you a likely VI.

Your question is irrelevant to any discussion, and is a fucking strawman at best.

My question was very relevant, because I wanted to know if this is scum jumping at the first thing they see or if you're a VI (as per the above description).

The fact that you think hiding RVS from the new players is actually a good thing is just terrible, it may not be alignment indicative, but it's terrible from a newbie game standard, we are in a newbie game, deciding your just going to hide what RVS is, isn't a good thing.

You are straw-manning here, I did not nor do I endorse hiding RVS from new players, what I did say was I wanted to get their natural reactions in this instance before explaining it further.

RVS is done to get reads out of players, in this case it could better serve it's purpose by seeing how some newbies reacted without knowing that randomly voting is what is commonly done as an ice breaker here on mafiascum far better than me posting the wiki article, which would have produced a chorus of: ah that is what is going on, ok then... from both alignments.

[copper223]

@Frank
Nope, Wazza is a SE and not a newbie, plus newbies come in all shapes and forms, some have played mafia on other forums for more years than the actual regulars and can't be considered newbies let alone VI's by any stretch.

Also being a VI doesn't have much to do with experience.

The best strategy to win as town I know is to have a frank discussion with everyone and try to collaborate to reach an agreement on the player we want to flip while being rationally critical of each other's statements, Wazza there seemed just interested in scoring points and demonstrated from the start he had 0 interest in a back and forth, that's why I said in that context he could be behaving like a VI, or he is scum starting a bad tunnel.

Having tested him I think he is town.

At the moment the Kaladin slot is the likeliest mafia in the game, because newbies replacing out are statistically more likely to be scum.

[copper223]

Dude that is my definition of VI (because players that behave like that often stick to ridiculous reads by conf-biasing because they get emotionally invested in the argument more than the read or become victims of their isolationist play-style later on and get mislynched at critical points in the game), and in the context of that discussion.

That said I am also not the god of mafia on earth, if you believe that your play-style is better then by all means ignore my accusation and go back to playing your way and showing why I am scum if that's what you still think.

[copper223]

Copper what makes you think Jason is town from your discussion?

He was consistent in his behavior.

When I asked him why he'd come to that conclusion (no delay makes sense, so you asking for a delay is scummy) there's a decent chance as scum that he would have had an explanation ready, ignoring me and going back to his initial point makes it likely that is what he really believes.

Also if he can consistently fake it I don't see why he'd choose that strategy as scum either, it doesn't make you popular and he likely wouldn't know how I would react to it.

[copper223]

A lynch at this point is very premature.

@HS
Open a second or however many tabs you need and copy paste the quotes you'd like to make back and forth between the post you are making and those you are using to "store" your quotes.

This is the statistics thread about the newbies: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=39739

In particular:

Player	Player Replacement Rate
Town Newbies	45.8%
Scum Newbies	59.7%

Is what is relevant.

You did not screw up unless you and Frank are scum buddies.

I am working on my toto read a the moment, the initial impression was that he was clumsily trying to game solve hence town but I've read your points and if he is throwing names out there without conviction he could be scum.

@Toto
TownCop has posted four times, what makes you so sure of his alignment?

[copper223]

@Toto
That my be true on EM but it constantly shifts on mafiascum depending on where people are looking for scum (regarding the third vote), it is also common to create wagons so that you can do VCA (vote count analysis) later on; that means I believe TownCop when he says that's what he saw in other games (which doesn't make him town), it does however make your case on him pretty weak.

@Toto/HS/Frank

[copper223]

@Toto/HS/Frank
You seem to be trying to solve the game as quickly as possible (which is something that points more to newbie town rather than newbie scum), but you risk over-posting and helping scum hide behind your mass of content, try to condense your thoughts if possible.

[copper223]

Welcome to the game SmoothBlue.

That's correct, VC is vote count, feel free to ask about the lingo if there is something you don't understand.

Now the question is, was your slot a mafia replace out? To answer that, what sticks out to you from the pages that happened before you replaced in?

[copper223]

1) HS+Frank: for the "scumslip" early on.
2) Gideon+Spy: for Gideon "protecting him" (I'm less convinced of this). Gideon is acting as newbtown. I think.
3) TownCop + ???: for the suspicious vote on me. (I have a strong, albeit debilitating, gut feeling I caught scum here)

Okay toto, I think you are more likely town than not.

What you are doing here however is scum hunting by association, that is a very dangerous thing to do because you are looking for and finding tells about a player that assume the alignment of a second one to justify the case, when you don't know if that's true.

If I assume one of you is scum, I can probably make up pairs for all the rest of the player-list and come up with some sort of case for why that would hold.

Some players on mafiascum will just tell you to not scum hunt by association until you get a definite flip on a scum player, I think that's a good way to play when you're new to the game.

Focus on one player and tell us why you think he is scum, if the case is good enough you'll get to see his flip and then can go on to make your case on his most likely buddy.

[copper223]

I'm on going to check back this evening after work (which for me is in about 4/5 hours),

I'd be pretty peeved if someone hammered Toto in the mean time so please don't.

I do think his wagon is pretty useful though, checking back on why everyone voted for him and if it holds up in your mind is time well spent, especially for you Toto if you're town.

@HS
Read carefully how Toto replies to me when I tell him his case on TS may be weak, especially the part where he says "still these are all the reads I have"; doesn't that strike you as town trying to be useful?

[copper223]

@SB
That's a fair criticism wrt pointing out town behavior.

Your catch-up is pretty sensible but there aren't (understandably giving the early state of the game) a lot of meaningful conclusions, interested to see your follow-ups.

@All
When I say I am reading a certain behavior as more likely to come from town rather than from scum, it is inherently tied to the context, if you see players forcibly adapting to match those tells later on call them out on it.

[copper223]

Also I verified if HS was telling the truth about Frank being eager to play in the sign-up thread and that pans out.

[copper223]

I think TownCop has a higher chance then average of being scum if you are town Toto, if I had to pick between the two of you at the moment I'd lynch TC.

I have different standards for IC's and SE's compared to newer players.

[copper223]

If TC is scum I'd say there's a very decent chance his buddy is SB.

The player I'd be willing to be the game on being town is HS for me, I have a town lean on Gideon but it's not that strong of a read as Spyre's.

[copper223]

Because he is supporting TC without openly town-reading him.

His first post was about TC's postion wrt to pressure voting you being perfectly understandable, after a few of you started to redirect on TC he came out with: I'm confused guys, what did TC do?

Now that is what a newbie buddy often does, he doesn't want to fully commit to defend in case it's a hopeless cause and he then has to deal with the associatives, but he will often try to inject some doubt in the thread if he thinks he can seem reasonable doing so.

Of course, as I have been telling you, this is only relevant if TC is actually scum which is an open question.

[copper223]

SB had a good point about me giving away how I read town players and how it could be dangerous, so I'll stop quoting specific instances, HS's whole mindset is about figuring out the game and that's hard to fake if you already know how it looks beforehand.

[copper223]

@TC
Why do you now think Toto is more likely wrong town rather than scum?

[copper223]

@Jason
Like Thor I am a strong proponent of the anti-bussing league, unless I believe my scum-mate is great as scum or if I am playing with someone that knows me very well I will likely only say positive things about their alignment and never put them on the spot, so my hypothetical scum-mate would have likely been in {HS, Jason, Spyre}.

That said your point about me giving only safe "reads" is pretty egregious, even for my mental image of you town, do you mean "scum reads" or every read I have given?

[copper223]

@TC
Okay, but he was doing all of that before you put him at L-2 to see how he would react to the pressure, so what caused you to change your mind?

[copper223]

How do you interpret 176?

[copper223]

@TC
Hmm I don't know that I buy your explanation fully, especially because you say, paraphrasing "I'll take a look at Toto's associative copper read now" when supposedly you should have done so before I asked you that question if you were reaction testing Toto as you claimed.

@HS
I am obviously a PR, I am copper after all.

For real though, I don't think that's a good conversation to have.

[copper223]

@Spyre
Still confident in your Gideon read despite him being a late joiner in the two main wagons we've had to date?

[copper223]

Ive got a favor to ask. Can someone give a small summary of why Copper should be todays lynch? Ide like to hear from everyone on the wagon if possible. My reads are still foggy. I have a confident town read, and my vote is still where it is for a reason. Thats it.

I see some more content has been posted, and Im going to digest it tonight.

The main problem I've had with TC and the reason for the vote is that he claimed to reaction test Toto by putting him at L-2, but then did nothing once the extra pressure was added.

If you claim you are pressure voting to read someone I would then expect you to use that to interact with the possible scum-read in an inquisitive manner, instead it's more like TC is defending himself from Toto for placing him at L-2 and trying to get Toto to unvote him (once Toto did vote for it).

The unvote later on was also not really justified and the first time I asked him why he changed his mind he brought up characteristics of Toto's play that Toto had been doing all along, so if that's how you read that behavior to begin with, I'd expect you to have a town read on him and there would be no need to reaction test that particular slot.

It may be that the reaction test backfired, but it doesn't quite add up to me.

Another point is that he doesn't interact much with his scum-reads, most of the dialogue is reactive from his side, he votes Toto, then Toto votes him back and questions him, and then he answers and there is a small back and forth, the same goes for Gideon and SB he never questioned. This also strikes me as odd, in contrast look at how much Jason is focused on me, or how Toto immediately engages his "new scum-read" as soon as he thinks he found a connection.

[copper223]

@TC
Fair enough, I'll check back on those posts you mention to see if I also get the impression that Toto's play changed.

I would expect there to be a lot of answers to people questioning you in your ISO (like you are doing with me now), but also your own lines of inquiry trying to figure out if something x said is actually indicative of them being scum and that part is lacking.

Nothing prevents you from getting reads from conversations you are not part of, but once you have a certain read, especially a scum-read, I would expect you to go further and engage them, wouldn't that make sense if your job is to figure out who is scum?

@HS
Why do you think that if you were to flip green, Frank would be cleared?

[copper223]

@HS
TC sounds truthful enough to me as well in his latest replies, making me think that a read shake-up is necessary.

I'm looking at Frank, Gideon, and SB; or maybe Jason is faking the tunnel after all?

How are you feeling about Frank?

[copper223]

@SB
No, he is TownCop in that context, he has a scum-lean on you but hasn't engaged you.

[copper223]

I don't know, Jason being more incensed about me calling him VI and continuing to ask that question in particular instead of being worried about the scum part still seems like a town-tell to me.

Frank I am slightly suspicious of because he asked everyone on the TC wagon to justify their position, that could have been scum deciding if they wanted to make the jump or not.

Gideon, you said Toto just wanted somebody to die, I can see that behavior in you too, especially the jump from Toto to TC worries me (and what you said in 166205, if you thought the arguments were good enough to move you from your Toto scum-read onto someone scum-reading him, then why weren't you going to hold your vote on TC until he posted more incriminating text? What did he post that made you lean more mafia?

I've read HS's SB case and I might join that if these probes are dead ends, it's not a bad case.

[copper223]

@TC
That's the whole point of HS's case though, he is saying 122 was crafted to make you town-read SB by him expressing what had in the mean-time become general consensus; I can see that as a possibility especially because SB did not use much of the information he collected to actually give a read on those players, he left most of it open ended with a TBD (to be determined) note based on future content at the end.

[copper223]

if you thought the arguments were good enough to move you from your Toto scum-read onto someone scum-reading him, then why weren't you going to hold your vote on TC until he posted more incriminating text? What did he post that made you lean more mafia?

Can you make sure this is correctly phrased? I don't understand this question.

Sure although I am asking Gideon.

What made Gideon change his mind so much that he went from strongly scum-reading Toto to scum-reading TownCop who was pushing Toto's wagon, especially when Gideon first said Toto's case on TownCop was good and voted TownCop because of it, but then in one of Gideon's next posts he said he was not going to keep his vote on TownCop but TownCop posted more scummy content.

I have a hard time following his thought process.

[copper223]

VOTE: SB
Looks like the day is slowing down and although I am not as confident as I would like SB is a decent lynch.

[copper223]

I've got a good feeling about you. Reread the first 4 pages. Give me what you think about Gideon, frank, hs and Jason. I've got some opinions and concerns there and i want a fresh set of eyes.

Noted Spyre, will read back after work.

[copper223]

VOTE: Gideon

I did not like that post where you say: I'd claim town if I am mafia.

Also if there is someone willing to lynch anyone in this game, it's you.

Also you still haven't answered my question in 249, Toto asked me to re-formulate it as well so I have a hard time believing you missed it.

@All
The fact SB is going through the thread sequentially and answering questions before reading up till the end makes me think he is town, scum would much rather have all info. available and then decide how to best reply.

The tonal shift likely happens once he notices he is under fire and needs to defend himself, that doesn't have to be scummy, I am interested in SB's reply to Spyre's point about the read switch that both Spyre and Gideon quoted though.

@SB
I don't expect you to have firm reads after 1 hour in the game, but you were not following up on anything after making that catch-up, other than questioning TC's wagon, could be you were just busy IRL but it could also be scum.

[copper223]

I have HS, Spyre and Toto off the table for today, the rest I still need to figure out.

[copper223]

@Spyre
It depends a lot on TC's alignment, if TC is town I don't buy the WK from SB and Gideon being so lynch happy, especially when he mentions it as a scum-tell about Toto's game, is pretty scummy.

Yeah but he is using that obvious statement to discredit SB who's behaving in the same way as he did, if he is town I'd expect him to be more sympathetic (because he was doing the same thing after all) and not to just point out it's meaningless cause scum does it too, it's definitely not a good reason to call SB scum (your point that he switched from experienced to newbie when he needed to is another story).

[copper223]

@Spyre
You did make some really good points about Jason that I missed, so I am re-reading that today.

[copper223]

@Jason

Yes lets use player tells for alignment.

It's a player by player thing, not something that is dependant on alignment

If you are scum, you want your reads to help you out, the more you know about the thread the likelier it is you can formulate a good strategy, that means you are incentivized to read everything before you post, which is not the case when someone asks you a question as town, there you just need to tell them what you think, not reading before replying is therefore not just a play-stile quirk often enough for it to be a tell (I've also had quite a lot of success with it).

The good points Spyre mentions were about you pushing something that was pretty far from what actually happened, why did you decide I was town after all coming back from your break?

[copper223]

@Jason
Do you know that SB never reads the thread before replying regardless of his alignment?

You can't call it a player tell unless you have meta about him doing that, I gave you a decent reason for why that may very depending on the player's alignment (and assuming said player is not aware of the tell and a newbie, cause experienced players tend to just read till the end regardless).

[copper223]

You don't use it, I do and it works fine.

It is also not an impasse, I explained the motivation for why scum and town often behave differently (they have different incentives), you just told me it's a player tell without knowing if it is, that part we can dismiss.

[copper223]

Anyway, I still think Jason is town, to add to what I previously mentioned I found a quote of his in a prior game we played together where he says paraphrasing:
In order to figure out if someone is mafia you sometimes try to make them look bad.

I think most of the Spyre case is him doing this rather than scum making stuff up.

[copper223]

Sometimes to see someone's true intent you have to make them look bad, see how they react and go from there (RVS is somewhat exactly like this)

[copper223]

@HS
Noted, let me put my Gideon fears to rest and then I'll give you that L-1.

[copper223]

@Spyre
What I noticed is that TC is bringing up most of the points, slightly changing the flavor of the question, I did to ask Gideon about and it's having the opposite effect on me, especially after HS's post, makes me think TC is SB's buddy after all and he is looking at Gideon for the CW piggybacking on my suspicion.

The interesting point in the Jason discussion, other than highlighting once again that we seem to read the game in different ways, was him lumping together my argument about how you read the thread possibly being AI with your points about his play.

I'm also interested in his next post, cause his reaction when I brought up the quote makes me think he doesn't believe it's relevant in this context.

[copper223]

Isn't the really only nooby thing I did when was question the RVS? I'm not new to mafia in general. I know what I'm doing.

This was not you, this was SB.

[copper223]

The problem I have with you is your switch from the Toto wagon to the TC wagon.

[copper223]

Yeah he did the same to me as well and that has the potential to look terrible if he is scum, so he probably doesn't care about how it looks and that is a town mindset (not one I appreciate but that's besides the point), either that or he is super cocky scum, a strategy which I have never seen a newbie try.

VOTE: SB

[copper223]

I am not endorsing his play Toto, but I can't also force a play-style either, so if I have to read what it means

in this instance

.

[copper223]

It means he is more likely town.

[copper223]

@TC
Every read is dangerous and WIFOM is almost always involved.

The important reads today are SB and those on his wagon, I'm convinced HS is town, I am pretty sure Spyre and Toto (both willing to hammer) are also town.

If SB flips scum you are his buddy and if I am talking to scum TC we both know it.

Of the other two (Gideon and Jason) I am not as certain, but I am leaning town enough on both that I am willing to go through with the lynch and see if I am reading the game correctly.

Regarding Spyre's concerns, that is where I would look for scum if SB were to flip town.

I think Frank's reason for not posting is too elaborate to be false so his absence from the thread is not alignment indicative, I have a fence town lean on him in isolation.

[copper223]

Congrats guys, way to shoot people in the foot first. I'm Town Tracker.

If there is a PR that is not compatible they should claim now, otherwise I am taking SB as confirmed.

[copper223]

Or a tracker counter claim.

I am not commenting further until everyone has posted and SB's claim stands or there is a counter claim.

[copper223]

@SB
Assuming the claim is legit, do you still feel like the TC wagon was questionable?

[copper223]

@Toto
If it is an honest impression I want to know more about what caused it and how he feels about the follow-up interaction he had with TC.

[copper223]

Why do you expect a different answer? If you are not expecting a different answer, why do you ask this question? It would seem you would like to doubtcast the original wagon. Why would you... oh yeah...

I would like to doubt cast the origin of the wagon by bringing it up again so we can focus on it, and according to you, on my buddy?

Taking a deep breath because this is a newbie before continuing... your posting lately is fucking abysmal, think before you post.

[copper223]

The problem is SB was objectively scummy, it seems likely that he is the tracker based on the thread reactions.

In this case what HS thought was paralysis because he did not know how to react as scum was paralysis because he did not want to give away his PR.

Of those on the wagon I understand Jason and Gideon's switches the least, with the caveat that Jason's activity level makes it harder to follow his thought process anyway.

If it's Gideon, first off good for you for giving 0 shits as scum (although you won't survive to Lylo like this so I don't know what your back-up plan would be) then one of my town-reads is probably garbage.

[copper223]

You know fuck all if you are town, and yes I did take a deep breath in the middle of writing the post, check me out outside of a newbie after you post what you think mafia should do in a given situation and you'll see the difference.

The reason why I asked, a question I already answered (hint read the thread, by your own logic you would be scum), is that at the time I did not give much credence to SB's post as I had him as a scum-read, now that I suspect that was a genuine read and something that I did not consider at the time I want to know more in detail why he felt that way and if I can rely on his TC read at the time or if he changed his mind.

If I know that both SB and TC are town there are certain players that become much more suspect and I need to re-read everyone's ISO's because I am clearly not on the right track, if I don't then my current reads may still be applicable with the exception of SB.

[copper223]

@Frank
There has been a lot going on and we don't have that much time left, a speedy catch-up would be appreciated.

[copper223]

@Huntress: can you prod Gideon please?

[copper223]

No worries.

[copper223]

@Huntress
This is the second time I've played with Wazza and both times he randomly lurked out

@Gideon
How about we start with SB claiming town tracker, isn't that something you'd want to confirm is possible or counter claim if it is not as soon as you read the thread? Why do you ask for questions addressed to you instead?

@All
I can't even say that Wazza's replace is scum indicative cause the last time he was town, it is asshole indicative though and I hope someone takes note.

[copper223]

@HS
Toto jumping around and likely reading the game by association produces what you've seen, he bounces around questioning everyone on associative cases depending on the latest thread interactions and how he thinks they might be indicative of both players being a scum team, which is tiresome, but that doesn't make all of his questions invalid.

@Toto
I don't see a good reason for why Jason / Gideon is not a possible pair, Gideon flipping scum would make me less sure of Spyre's alignment, but he has done a lot of townie things that have little to do with his Gideon read.

If Gideon / Spyre is the scum team it's not a big deal anyway, lynch Spyre if he gets to a 3 player lylo.

[copper223]

You were going a bit further than that questioning the validity of Gideon's wagon

because

people were not questioning Spyre as well, which doesn't make sense other than in your world where you are constantly looking for pairs, and that's where associations are dangerous and can lead down rabbit holes.

[copper223]

Seems solid.

VOTE: Gideon

[copper223]

What Spyre is saying is correct in theory SB, if you are about to be lynched claiming a stong PR makes sense in isolation, at least you may get a trade with an actual PR once they react to your claim in a way that gives it away or best case they actually don't lynch either you or your CC for fear of making a mistake.

That said I agree with Toto in this specific instance, you can't reasonably claim anything other than VT as Gideon here and be believed, he should have cc'd soon after SB posted if that was his plan.

Along that line, I understand this is a newbie, but how can you possibly have SB as scum and be trying to read people? Gideon's reply that posting a read-list with a lot of maybe towns is equal to accusing a lot of us also doesn't convince me at all, like I don't believe he is this bad...

[copper223]

@Frank
If you can't post once a day because of the RL situation you should consider replacing out.

[copper223]

For those that are not satisfied with a Gideon lynch, find a credible alternative.

As I said, I don't believe this is newbie play, I think he is making reads up and that's why he still had SB as scum despite SB claiming tracker, that's why he didn't care about the claim and if he needed to counter claim or confirm it and the first thing he asked when he rejoined the thread was is: do you have questions for me? And that's why his wagon swaps look patchy and his explanations don't work chronologically, as TC, Toto and I pointed out in the TC and as Chaos pointed out in the SB case.

[copper223]

You're actually right toto. I was referring to this bit.
'Before TownCop was accused, he was rather quiet and uninterested in scum hunting. After the accusation, he frantically started pointing fingers everywhere. Seems like a pretty strong 'read' to me.'

But he was accusing TownCop of 'throwing accusations around' even before that, mentioning you in the same sentence.
However, this makes even less sense, considering that as everybody else has said, TownCop wasn't doing that.

It's still a bit worrying that you'd accuse him of mixing the names up given he mentions both.

[copper223]

Understood, but that shows you're either confirmation biasing a bit too much on your scum reads, which makes it slightly more likely we are both wrong about Gideon as we were about SB (man this would be a bad D1 for me in this case), or you're fabricating cases on people and maybe are pushing so hard now because Frank is your buddy after all (and that would be one of my worst D1s on site but there is always a first time...).

Either way there is reason to be a bit worried.

[copper223]

@Gideon
Basically Spyre and HS just told you you are the lynch today unless something major happens.

Now would be the time to make that something happen or at least give all the information you have to help town as much as possible, if that's your alignment.

[copper223]

@HS
That's fair wrt to your meta btw.

The way I work with imperfect information and trying to avoid confbias is mentally assigning rough probabilities based on player behavior and what that says about their likely motivation, I then update them when new information presents itself.

On you I am 80% on the first case and 20% on the second, you're still my strongest town read.

[copper223]

@SB
I don't see a mafia agenda behind Toto, the number of players he has accused alone would be dangerously high for someone that is just trying to survive during the day, add his stubborn streak to do what he thinks should be done and disregard what others say (look at him arguing with confirmed you on this page about nonsense for instance) that speaks to me of true conviction and not opportunistic or fake posting and I have a hard time believing it.

[copper223]

I already explained that read in detail Toto.

Unless HS is the type of scum player that can build cases on others and make them look legitimate (and I gave that a 20% probability) the amount of game solving and investigating he has done strongly points at him being town (can you imagine most scum players checking to see how often SB was online just so they can point that out to make their case on him better? It is much more likely that a suspicious townie will pay attention to that).

VOTE: ChaosOmega

I am willing to follow mainstream today again, if this isn't scum though it's time for full paranoia mode.

[copper223]

My top suspects are ChaosOmega and TownCop.

[copper223]

What has caused you to flip on Jasomega's slot from day one? You've changed your mind.
Could you direct me to some posts I should have a closer look at on TownCop? I don't see much wrong so far.

My early interpretation of how Jason plays town (VI tunneler) doesn't fit with him coming back and switching to SB (which we know was town and the best mis-lynch at the time) without interacting with me further and the reasons he gave are weak (I don't think the content I produced in the middle part of D1 is in any way different from the start, other than being slightly less transparent about my town-reads).

The rest of his ISO is him trying to convince me that my read on SB is shit, when we now know I should have stuck with it.

ChaosOmega repalced in just to vote the other heavy mislynch target of the day (Gideon), and did nothing else.

His case was good and it could just be town making a case on scum and being busy thereafter, but on average I can clearly see a possible and even likely scum design behind those reads and posts.

TownCop is the other one on the Gideon train I don't think is town, I do think there is at least 1 scum on that wagon so if it's not Chaos it's TC. Frank could well be both player's partner.

[copper223]

Spyre preemptively justifying his continued existence in the game in case of a town flip is worrisome, but he has a ton of cred for the Gideon read.

Do you agree that for now the energy is much more promising today Spyre?

[copper223]

@Spyre
Exactly, there is very little reason to point out the obvious as town, other than "musing alive"; but as scum it has a clear purpose.

Then we're not thinking along the same lines, yesterday when you said the energy was bad I thought about it and realized there was very little resistance to lynch Gideon and that made me pause.

Today I'm seeing my town-reads active and my scum-reads absent while there is a wagon on someone I think may be scum, that is usually promising.

@Toto
Your narrative doesn't hold because Spyre town-read Gideon before he was a possible mis-lynch, if anything he may have decided he did not need to switch reads and raise suspicion because someone and maybe even Gideon was going to get lynched anyway, the question still remains, why would you waste a strong town-read on someone that looked like a juicy mis-lynch, and that's why the case that the town-IC did not want to lynch what he consider newbie town makes more sense.

[copper223]

"musing alive"

musing aloud is what I meant to write, pretty tired tonight .

[copper223]

Also, not to be a dick, but I've played 2 perfect games in a row with close to perfect reads myself so I think I have a good idea how to play and both SB and Gideon played extremely poorly, your implied line of attack on Spyre is unwarranted and that's one of the main reasons I am sticking with the same town-reads as yesterday despite the flips.

[copper223]

Well, not to be a dick, you are not doing so well on this one. Unless of course you are scum. In which case you are doing very well.

That's my point, I can't be doing well cause the townies that died made it extremely hard to do so.

[copper223]

If this lynch is scum, then the question is was it scripted to bus? If so more likely hs (that vote that fast surprised me) but I'm not sure.

Nah there is no scripted bus if Chaos is scum.

[copper223]

There is very little you can't understand once you see the perspective of the other player, it doesn't change the fact it was terrible.

[copper223]

@TC
Where does your town read of Spyre come from then?

[copper223]

It doesn't tell you much: it could have been a coincidental town read which just happened to be the bw of D1

I'd like to highlight this.

[copper223]

UNVOTE:

Let's clarify the Frank situation first. I'm interested in TC's follow up as well.

Regarding Jasonmega, I also disliked how quickly Jason unvoted once SB claimed, and that was after going after me for having doubts about him.

[copper223]

Spyre's reply feels a lot more natural there in comparison.

[copper223]

Pretty much, IIoA and doubt casting.

[copper223]

@Frank
The 5 major wagons being Toto, TC, SB, Gideon and today Chaos, correct?

I never was on the Toto wagon.

I'm surprised you're not considering that given you continue to scum-read Toto and made wagon associations with Chaos.

@All
While I was checking ISO's I noticed TC only got votes from people I consider or know to be town
{Gideon, Toto, HS, Copper}, this especially stands out:

Vote Count 1.5

TownCop (4) - copper223, Toto, Human Sequencer, Gideon (L-1)

[copper223]

@Toto
Chaos becomes a lot more suspicious once Gideon flips and when I saw the quick unvote from Jason (and then from you) on SB I pegged one of you down as the actual doctor, so I was even more hesitant to push there.

[copper223]

more correct is to say the other PR.

[copper223]

Jason's main scumread progression went from Copper is scum, to Copper's strongest scumread is scum, to immediately unvoting said scumread.

At the time I thought that quick unvote would have made sense if he had extra-information confirming what SB had said, now that I know that's not the case I find it pretty scummy.

It's weird to mentally go from: Copper your town-read on SB is BS, to oh shit we are lynching a PR let me unvote quickly, it shows 0 conviction in your read.

That said the actual doc didn't even bother to acknowledge him (probably scared of giving something away and just making it look a thousand times worse) so idk.

[copper223]

@TC
I can't draw the same parallels to the Toto wagon, but if it's true that both you and Frank are town then Toto might deserve some more scrutiny. It depends on how strong the town-read you have on him is and where it comes from if it's legit.

You spent your time telling me why a town-read on someone you think is town may not be applicable 100% of the time wrt. to Spyre, I don't see why a townie would do that, you didn't even use the fact you don't consider it a good read to make a case on me.

[copper223]

Gideon was your top scum read at the time he voted SB (before you did).

I list the players I am looking at, after having interacted with TC, a few posts before he votes (those are Frank, Gideon and SB), including a post where I say I understand HS's case on SB and he may well be right so no Gideon was not my main scum-read at the time.

[copper223]

I don't think he voted him because he was my top scum-read, I think it shows his stated reads changed drastically at that point in time.

[copper223]

@Frank
I doesn't make much sense to me though. If you're convinced Toto is scum (which you seem to strongly be given you haven't changed that early read after a catching up with a ton of content) and are uncertain or at least less sure about the rest of us, isn't he the natural choice?

[copper223]

Okay, I am also pretty lost, which is unusual for me, I don't know if this is a bad game or I'm not into it or what the heck, the point I can relate to Frank and it makes me think he's genuine.

The problem is I have too many let's call them not scumreads now and the pairs left don't make much sense, I'm going to check some Chaos games.

[copper223]

It could be but you currently don't believe that is the case, so what is your point?

I can take any read ever and find an instance where it does not apply, that doesn't mean it's not a valid read.

Your analysis of why scum_spyre would behave like he did randomly assumes he chose to town-read Gideon, something we have no reason to believe in a vacuum and which makes this a corner case, it does not invalidate the read (which you seem to share) so why are you doubt-casting?

There are many possible reasons for why you'd do so as scum, you don't want to get PoE'd, for instance you want to call out what you see as bad logic because that is a chance to produce content while not really reading the game, you are discrediting me.

As town all you're doing is distracting from going after the people you have a problem with (which would be Jasonmega).

@Toto
You're annoying, I hope this is not scum and I'm slowly getting tuned out, read the thread and you'll see where I am at.

[copper223]

@Toto
Fair enough, I am currently reviewing and Frank didn't come off as scummy to me, which may be a problem.

[copper223]

VOTE: Chaos

I think TC's soft bussing here.

[copper223]

That's L-1

[copper223]

You say you think he is town, I say he is town, but you're casting doubt on why I am town reading him and the way you posted it you did not just point out a side point, you claimed his behavior did not say much (see the part of your post I highlighted before) and tried to claim the whole read was invalid.

If Spyre had done something or if Chaos flips scum and you believe Spyre is the most likely scum, or if you're building a scenario where Chaos is town and you're looking for scum and you think it's Spyre, then it would make sense to say: I don't believe in copper's read because I think this is what happened and Spyre is scum because of X.

You did none of that and as I said best guess from me is you're busy pointing out "bad" logic instead of game solving.

[copper223]

Now you're focusing on him (but I already posted I think it's a soft buss so now there's WIFOM involved), but for a while now you've had him as scum and mostly ignored him, his question to you and your reply in 602 also makes it seems like you're both interacting with each other just for show.

One of the reasons for my unvote was to see if you would follow up with a vote on him or just claim you were scumreading without acting on it (and this is why I called it a soft buss).

UNVOTE:

I'm happy to see more interaction between the 2 of you though.

[copper223]

It doesn't tell you much: it could have been a coincidental town read which just happened to be the bw of D1

I'd like to highlight this.

[copper223]

I've been reading Chaos in my free time as well, and while it's true that his posting frequency is low regardless of alignment, I am not seeing the same kind of obsessive focus on just one player that he is displaying here (other than his latest post).

[copper223]

If Chaos flips, and if he flips green, the moment you decide to vote you're making it a you vs the other player scenario, you have to be confident enough that you will instantly gamble the game on you being right and the other player is scum, you also have to be able to explain to the rest of town where this confidence comes from.

I am all for using the day, as long as the discussion is meaningful.

[copper223]

Now you're focusing on him (but I already posted I think it's a soft buss so now there's WIFOM involved), but for a while now you've had him as scum and mostly ignored him, his question to you and your reply in 602 also makes it seems like you're both interacting with each other just for show.

One of the reasons for my unvote was to see if you would follow up with a vote on him or just claim you were scumreading without acting on it (and this is why I called it a soft buss).

UNVOTE:

I'm happy to see more interaction between the 2 of you though.

It's true that I did not follow up vote him, but I wanted to interact further with him. The fact that you only consider

me

not voting, and ignoring FrankJaeger (to some extent) and Toto. FrankJaeger

does

seem a bit suspicious, he has scum read on Chaos but seems to be trying to redirect the bw for some reason. His claims that he has a scum read of me, but his evidence is not enough to justify such and he has not responding to my posts (most recent ones).

I don't see how you see those posts as "interacting for show". Could explain further?

I am considering you in particular because I am looking for Chaos's buddy, you putting him as your top scumread perplexed me until you showed no intent to actually vote or interact with him (after which I decided a soft buss is the most likely case here).

The question he asks you is per-functionary (who's your top scum-read), and you had already said it was him as well. Your reply is also short and you don't follow up with anything, despite him being your top scum-read.

The interaction makes me believe you've both very little interest to figure each other out and that should not be the case if you're both being honest.

[copper223]

It's true that I did not follow up vote him, but I wanted to interact further with him.

This by the way is very compatible with my soft buss theory, you don't want to have to lynch your buddy but you want to be in position to do so if it goes pear shaped, as has seemed likely from the start of the day.

[copper223]

@TC
I agree with you but that's a failing I have seen scum making again and again, because of the need they feel to keep their options open.

You showed very little interest in interacting with him until I said you were soft bussing.

I was perplexed because if everyone wants to lynch Chaos, then is Chaos really scum or just a patsy that doesn't have much time to play and scum (I'd say most likely Spyre or HS and someone off the wagon just biding his time like Toto) is happily pushing him?

[copper223]

My conclusion is that Chaos TC or more in general Chaos + Busser is more likely anyway and that Chaos's slot is heavily compromised and a big liability at Lylo anyway if he happens to be town.

[copper223]

The most fundamental rule of bussing is not to bus.

Nope, I invite everyone to read up and see how many questions you asked him today before and after I said I thought it was a soft buss.

[copper223]

@TC
Let's say I'm wrong about you but we are both right about Chaos, who do you think is his buddy?

[copper223]

And doesn't it concern you that by PoE you are ending up on another player that is willing to vote Chaos and the IC, who in this world decided to buss his SE partner from the start of D1 and has to then manage somehow to justify being alive in a 3 Lylo, and this before he knew the setup and whether someone could check him?

[copper223]

Chaos Spyre is not a thing. If I am wrong and this was some sort of planned strategy I'll be asking them for lessons after the game.

[copper223]

That's all speculation.

The odds of scum being 2 newbies are higher because there are more newbies in a given game, not much else to infer and it doesn't mean anything compared to actually reading players.

Spyre's Gideon defense is why he is more likely town and definitely not a good D2 lynch, if we lynch Chaos and he flips town and if Spyre survives then it's back to the drawing board.

The latest posts makes me think it's just Frank and Chaos after all.

[copper223]

if we lynch Chaos and he flips town and if Spyre survives then it's back to the drawing board.

Really copper?
Are you saying Spy is cleared if chaos flips green?
Im thinking the opposite

I am not give scum a road-map to my reads depending on how someone we haven't even lynched flips.

If Chaos flips green and if Spyre is alive tomorrow he will be more suspicious than today for sure, but not in any way confirmed scum.

I'm going to collect TC's voting pattern and then you can explain to us why you think it's scum indicative.

[copper223]

copper223 (2) - TownCop, JasonWazza

Toto (3) - FrankJaeger, Gideon, TownCop

Gideon (1) - TownCop

Gideon (5) - TownCop, Human Sequencer, ChaosOmega, copper223, Toto [LYNCH]

Not voting (4) - ChaosOmega, FrankJaeger, Toto, TownCop

[copper223]

@Frank
Why do you find the above voting pattern scum indicative?

[copper223]

@Frank
If scum know how we feel about every player depending on what Chaos flips they can pick which ones to leave alive to make it easier to win, especially if Chaos happens to be town, that's why I am not going into detail about my reads in that scenario.

As I said Spyre would be worth investigating tomorrow in that scenario, but claiming he has to be scum is a stretch.

[copper223]

I think Frank may be reading too much into voting patterns but I don't think he is making stuff up so I'm back to Chaos and TC.

[copper223]

I'd like some reads from Toto, what do you think of Frank and TC in these latest pages?

[copper223]

@Spyre
If you weight voting patterns as heavily as he does and accept Frank's assumptions about the likely composition of the team (1 newbie 1 experienced) and the 1-1 split his reads kinda make sense.

I also find TC's voting patterns suspect (I'd say many of us have a bad pattern though considering what happened yesterday), he was hard 1v1nd by the doc and vote parked on him for most of the latter part of the day, after being part of Toto's failed early wagon, he also was on the same RVS vote as Jason which might also mean something.

The setup doesn't really work in my eyes because you're pushable only with a Chaos town flip and Frank explicitly builds that in his assumption of Spyre scum, if we were to lynch TC and he flips town at least some of us will likely think, damn I should have listened to Spyre, and I don't see how he plans to convert that into cred to lynch you.

[copper223]

To be honest I'm not reading TC as scum either he seems to be focused on clarifying the attacks by Frank, and not actively scum-hunting which is a bad sign. This is somewhat scummy but I can also understand that Chaos is not really answering questions right now and we don't have more leads.

Yeah this is my problem with TC, it may be just like Toto said (and TC mentioned as well) that Chaos being MIA is just not helping TC game solve, but in general all the focus from TC seems to be on the wrong things (debunking reads he agrees with, defending himself, evaluating probabilities on scumteam compositions) where he does come off as a smart guy, but then ask him about who's scum and he comes out with pretty nebulous and unformed thoughts (like saying that Chaos Spyre may be a thing because of PoE based on how strong his town-reads are) and the two TC's don't match up well.

[copper223]

It helps if Chaos is not scum and we lose at Mylo.

Yeah I get you Toto, but that's not Spyre's assumption.

[copper223]

I'm confident in enough town reads that on a chaos scum flip theres one niggler that has me worried. But that's it.

Agreed, and that's why I'm lynching Chaos over TC today.

[copper223]

@TC
In the sense that before 710 you gave more coherent and exhaustive answers when posting about topics not related with scum-reading players, I found that strange because as a townie that should be your focus so my thoughts were: maybe he doesn't have to think about his reads as scum and this lack of depth compared to the rest of his posts is a tell.

I do like your latest, I keep going back and forth between the two of you

[copper223]

In fact I think the latest is enough for me to be pretty sold on Chaos and Frank as well.

[copper223]

VOTE: Chaos

Again, L-1.

[copper223]

Nah that's a scum hammer.

We should have let him out of his misery sooner but it's a newbie... sorry mate.

I'm happy we can still win this game despite the PR madness D1.

[copper223]

I case it's relevant, my reads are that a hard buss is out of the question, that means HS and Spyre are town.

Scum is between Frank (60) TC (35) and Toto (5).

[copper223]

It's hard to explain, you have to see a bunch of players bussing and what usually drives them.

A hard buss like this is made by someone like RadiantCowbells, Katsuki or Kuribo (you can check their games if you want to see more good hard bussing in action) and they are all "prima donna" ego driven personalities that don't want to win as scum, they want to win spectacularly and show they hard carried the game.

I see none of this from either you or Spyre, you're both logical "let's put the pieces together" kind of players and for both of you this would just seem a very poor play when you had to make it (more so for Spyre, but then again my town-read of you was stronger to begin with).

[copper223]

No probs.

[copper223]

Sick reads Spyre my man.

VOTE: Frank

[copper223]

Focusing on scum all game until they are lynched is a good thing.

That would be unfortunate but I think his read on you is good as well.

[copper223]

I'm certain enough that you are the last scum Frank that I am not interested in doing so.

[copper223]

Pretty lame attempt man, he also had great town-reads like Gideon, you will note the absence of "scum" in my reads statement.

[copper223]

Nope, let's not discredit.

Copper made a post game comment addressing how well Spyre played this game.

My case on you is that your read progression is wack, your reads are far too sticky, you stayed on Toto all day D1 and on TC all day D2 (and this was your plan today as well I guess, him being the most likely alternative to your lynch), being over-cautious with who you vote and how often you change is often scum indicative.

But more importantly you're the only one that actively tried to deviate from a Chaos lynch yesterday and for that alone you're a compromised slot that needs to go.

Finally your reaction to Chaos's hammer after you gave him 12hrs to post kinda gives it away, don't you think.

[copper223]

The scum motivation is that the more you switch the more you may be questioned about it so you try not to unless you have to, limiting the amount of times you have to lie about something is a standard tactic to try and seem truthful when you are forced to lie.

Because there is an obvious scum motive for trying to deviate from Chaos, you doing so makes you the most likely scum candidate, and yeah that's very townie of me, I know.

I'm happy you seemed to be prepared for this one so at least you noticed your own slip, what happened is you prodded Chaos hoping he would respond by announcing the buss and when he hammered himself, instead of towning it up like you wanted him to and that's why you gave him that chance, you let that Jeez slip .

[copper223]

We have 2 lynches left.

There are 5 of us now, if we mislynch we will be 4 going into the night.

Scum is going to kill one of us leaving 3 players and a Lylo situation.

[copper223]

@HS
This is the difference between me reading players and me wanting to lynch a player because I think he is scum, so it's true I am out for blood.

I think it's import for newer players to realize that once you're set on someone being scum you have to commit to your read and get them lynched, it's a valuable skill to learn.

Explaining mechanics (answering your Q+ and debating the general case of a 2 man IC/SE team) is a way to post and interact without giving anything away.

If the IC or one of the SE's doing it in a newbie you have to give them the benefit of the doubt that they are just explaining as they should (provided that's not ALL they do), but in a general game it's often a scumtell (it's called IIoA on the wiki, information instead of analysis).

Frank's reads by the way also look like him trying to buy off his lynch by town-reading those that haven't yet decided to hang him, in particular his Toto read evolution makes no sense (hint: because it's not a real read).

[copper223]

@Frank
Not admitting there is a case on you will not make the actual case go away.

[copper223]

I'm still want to hear what towncop has to say about his upcoming lynch tomorrow, after we lynch Frank today.

Holy shit this is terrible though.

UNVOTE:

[copper223]

Let's her what TC has to say, I still don't see Toto killing Spyre in most cases, whereas Frank has to, but why the fuck do you assume there is going to be a tomorrow when you're about to vote the guy?

[copper223]

And about toto. Ive had the same toto read since I caught up on D2, can you prove different? Nah you cant.

[copper223]

Toto could be scum. I dont think he can win the game alone so I am fine with going after bigger p.o.i

[copper223]

First you vote park him D1, then you place him on the "I want to lynch his buddy first" list, then you apparently decide you have to trust him just being a newbie (I assume you imply town newbie) for the rest of the game.

Why does this make sense?

[copper223]

I want you to take the instances where I call you likely scum for behaving in a certain way and explain what your thought process was.

Specifically, explain your Toto read progression. Explain what you meant with that jeez comment. Explain why you think TC and maybe I are the likeliest remaining scum from your perspective.

[copper223]

My case combined with what everyone else already thought is likely good enough to get you lynched, so the burden is on you to change my mind (or someone else's) and that is not happening if you give me canned answers.

Your ISO is not good enough to explain your Toto read progression, that's why I am asking you again.

Jeez is not only a sign that you're surprised, it also carries a negative connotation and I fail to see why you were disappointed with scum hammering themselves, again not explaining is just going to make me more confident I am right.

[copper223]

By the way, happy birthday Huntress!

[copper223]

However, as HS pointed out, Frank's early interactions are towny. Also, the comment Frank made after the hammer vote does not seem AI - I know this is WIFOM but generally scum will not make such an easy slip.

It's an easy slip only if you already think Frank is scum and understand his likely motivation, and scum makes A TON of those slips.

That's why I advocate never bussing, as a teammate you are in a position to see all the fuck-ups your teammates make, this often makes them look super scummy to you when if you were part of town you'd be oblivious of their mistakes.

Shining a light on them not only potentially screws them over for no good reason, which is bad team-play, it also makes you look bad as well for those who approach your reads critically.

[copper223]

I'm interested in more TC / Toto interaction.

[copper223]

I didn't even get to play in the fallout shelter this time (the temporary forum they set-up for the once or twice a year that the main forum goes down).

Bump 788

[copper223]

I'm also moving towards a 50/50 between Frank and TC.

TC's accusation that Frank is setting up a mis-lynch against me tomorrow by claiming scum is either TC or I seems unlikely, Frank would have had a much better time keeping Toto in his scum-reads if that was his plan.

Furthermore TC is doing the same thing he is accusing Frank of by saying he suspects Toto as well as Frank, and that's a more likely scum strategy for tomorrow.

That's why I want to hear more Toto / TC, I'm close as well to bet the game on HS and Toto being town and if I can be confident of that who we lynch first would just give us style points.

[copper223]

After re-reading the thread and Frank and TC's ISOs from scratch I'm trending back towards TC being the last one.

[copper223]

My main problem is how reactionary his whole play is.

[copper223]

@HS
I'm not completely certain about which one of the two it is but I'll add some preassure to the mix.

VOTE: TC

That's L-1.

[copper223]

+1

[copper223]

@Frank
He also did not join Toto's wagon if memory serves, but I don't think that's relevant as he seemed to be mostly afk at the time.

@HS / Toto
Frank's reaction seems pretty town to me.

[copper223]

I think that's gg.

[copper223]

If that's not the case, my preferred lynch tomorrow is Frank, but a few days to make sure you're convinced of your choice won't hurt.

[copper223]

Thanks for modding Huntress!

Well played fellows, Frank continuing to try and game solve convincingly while everyone was accusing him is what tipped me over that it was more likely to be TC after all.

[copper223]

@Gideon
If you get run up as a PR you always claim, better to be the NK than the lynch when there is an easy way to avoid it.

Better in this case would have been to soft claim first (leaving scum to try and figure the WIFOM out and maybe make the mistake of trying to kill SB first) by saying we were barking up the wrong tree and something ominous like: you've fucked up once already and see if that was enough.

Better still would have been to town it up and start answering questions about why you behaved like you did once your wagon started to pick up momentum, you had a strong backer in the IC and I think you could have moved the lynch away from yourself with a little effort, but the way you ignored SB's claim and just asked about yourself was highly unnatural (now I know why but I did not think about that at the time).

[copper223]

I think Frank would have been in the town block if not for all the hurricane down-time.

[copper223]

I'm curious to see how some of you guys play out as scum, if it's close to the same meta it could be a challenge.

[copper223]

Copper, you interested in /inning a game with me?

Or anyone for that matter? I want to get it in ASAP.

Spy, I completely understand the paranoia. I was super suspicious of you lol

There is a large by Ircher in the sign-up stage if you'd like to join me for another game Frank.