Newbie 1758 - Symmetry (Game Over)

[Huntress]

Hi there!

Just going to read up.

[Huntress]

Just going to poke my head above the parapet for a moment. I haven't finished reading yet, and won't post any details until I do, but so far it's looking like my vote would be on Human Sequencer, with a side of Jackel.

I won't touch any of the theory stuff until I'm fully caught up with the game, but when I am I'll be happy to answer any questions.

[Huntress]

I've just finished reading and will write up my reasons after dinner, but I'm thinking the scum team are Human and Jackel. My earliest scumread was on Josh, but he has now dropped to third so by poe is probably town.

[Huntress]

Thanks for unvoting!


My read on Jackel is partly a gut read but I'll try to break down what led to it.

In 6, Jackel is too concerned about how his vote will be viewed. Later, in 79, he said he felt it was bad form for a newbie game to vote for the player who voted him as such votes are looked down on.

In 247 he is doing exactly what he is accusing Daya of. He says Daya started with believing Joshz was scum, and proceeded to gather anything scummy against him, which is exactly what Jackel is doing here to Daya. He also says that Daya doesn’t say whether this is an analysis that was revised multiple times to get his point across. I don't think anyone ever says this so why expect Daya to? It feels like a subtle attempt to cast doubt. And is the third point (re: 222) sarcasm? That post has one vote change with a promise of an explanation later. Hardly a rollercoaster of reads and an unvote doesn't mean a read has disappeared suddenly.

248: This post does not give a true reflection of Space's posting up to that point.

Got a bad vibe from 261.

394: He says that Joshz has now made two references to PRs that no VT would know to exist in our current game. But no mafia would know which roles exist either, so why point it out?

@ Jackel: Please claim your role.

The only reason I'm not voting yet is because I still have a few things I want to say but that doesn't need to hold up a claim.

I had too many distractions tonight so my comments on Human are going to have to wait till tomorrow, but I do want to get them out before ending the Day.

[Huntress]

Sorry for the absence. I'm fine with lynching Jackel for reasons others and I have gone over. I'm unsure if I should vote though before we let Jackel/Huntress post more since we're at L-2 and Loopdan already retracted his vote. If there's any sort of community norm on this kind of thing I would appreciate being informed of it.

Opinions vary on this. We usually wait for a consensus before ending the Day, so that everyone can finish saying what they want to. If you put Jackel back to L-1 there is a risk of a premature hammer (including a possible self-vote from Jackel) while there is still stuff outstanding. Some would say I'm being too cautious though.

@Huntress: interesting post on Jackel. Do you have any strong town reads on anyone yet? No analysis needed just want your thoughts.

I don't often give town reads as such this early in the game unless it feels right to do so.

I don't think I meant to imply that Day was expected to say whether he had revised it. I was saying that, as he hadn't, it was possible that the read on Joshz started neutral, but Day had gone back through his notes multiple times. About the hypocrisy you note about my 247, I didn't start biased? Or at least, I felt that he was scummy from his first content post. I did omit some of my notes for being too sarcastic and snarky.

Why would he start writing a case on a player that he didn't first have a scumread on? Why the suggestion that Daya started neutral then revised it? It looks like you're trying to undermine the case without actually pointing out why it was wrong.

Is it proper to claim before an intent to hammer?

My request for your claim amounted to an intent to hammer. Please claim now.


Going out now. More when I get back.

[Huntress]

If you were town cop who would you investigate.

Huntress

If I was town cop I'd go for someone who wasn't likely to be night-killed. Apart from that it's best not to say as it might help mafia.

[Huntress]

What does this I don't even?

Beware of WIFOM. If Jackel is mafia then his comment about Josh may have been bluff, or double bluff.

[Huntress]

My thoughts are that someone was VLA all night or they dun gone messed up.

They can't have been away all night as they sent in a kill. It looks like they just didn't send in a roleblock, or didn't realise they could perform both actions at the same time in this game. (In some games the mafia have to choose between doing their factional kill or their role action. They can't do both.) Either that or someone took a huge risk as a gambit, but that is very unlikely.


By the way, if anyone apart from Locust has any role

other than doctor

they should speak up now.

[Huntress]

Please don't rush the lynch as that only helps scum in the long run (if the lynchee flips town). I'll have more to say after dinner.

[Huntress]

we lynched scum mostly because of me imo tho thats probably partially ego bias

As far as I can see it didn't have that much to do with you. Why are you trying to claim the credit for it?

im townie, and i dont think anyone will argue that.

You're not

that

obviously town, in fact there are a few things that are bothering me about you, but you're not top of my list at the moment so I'll deal with the others first.

I mean I guess it could be possible if someone is trying to set up HM for an easy lynch today. But then scum would be somebody who Locust is unlikely to inspect which excludes me, Sequencer and HM.

This is a good point.

How do i get content started? Who do i focus on? Don't give me some on who acts most scum, because I have no idea either. Don't tell me who look's most town because I don't know that either (contributing to town discussion?) How do you even get reads? (No gut because atm irl i actually don't know how i'm feeling everyday so I wouldn't recognize a gut when i saw one)

You could start by looking at cases and points that people have made and seeing if you agree with what they say, or if you think they are making it up.

Can I ask more questions during a non-newbie game and not get automatically lynched?

That depends a bit on the other players. They're usually helpful but might get suspicious of you. I'd recommend that you stick to newbie games until you feel more comfortable with the game though. If you're no longer eligible to /in for one you can always offer to replace in.

[Huntress]

I was thinking about suggesting that a little while ago and I don't think it's worth doing unless we get to lylo and the doc is still alive.

Make it the Day before lylo as a claim in lylo shouldn't, and wouldn't, be believed. Possibly the Day before that to narrow things down more. It means that if there's a counterclaim we have time to lynch both for the win in we get it wrong the first time.

hey is it against the rules to discuss hellfire's other game? it is still going on (day 5) but all I want to discuss is hellfire, who was lynched day 1, and discuss his flip.

It is definitely against the rules. Check out this link which explains the rule in more detail and gives examples of what is and is not allowed.

it is not an urge to rush onto a lynch. its an urge to stop wasting time. the fact this day is still going and now your paranoia is making you scum read me is a testimony to that. you need reasons why im town? id like to point out i was the one defending a you lynch and a psyche lynch, before either of you were proven town. i was the one that said we should lynch out of the se/ic people. i cant say anything else ive done because this game has been dead and a LOT of the content has been from me. im in a lot of games, i see no reason to sit around wasting time when there is going to be no new information today. if he flips town you should be gunning for human, again depending on the night kill, but this is a newbie game so i understand peoples reads wont be as accurate. the newbie factor on everyone is something to consider and is affecting your judgment.

It's quite common for scum to defend someone they know is going to flip town so that is no proof of anything. There is a lot to be gained from further discussion. It will give us a better idea of who to look at in the next Days if we don't lynch scum toDay, and for those who are lynched/nk'd it will be their last chance to join that discussion. A quick lynch will prevent that.

[Huntress]

I've been through everything HM has written and I've come to the conclusion that his posting, although inconsistent, is not alignment-indicative. Nor do I think, from what I've seen, that if he had a roleblocker role PM he would have failed to read what it said about using both actions. I'll review the cases against him tomorrow.

Any comment on the other theory I give in the bottom of post 612?

It's risky but possible and I think there's one or two players here that might risk it for a Day or two. Enough to give them a fake claim if they need it in that time.

[Huntress]

@ Josh and HM:

I think both of you need to read the first section of post 1.


I've looked over everyone's comments on HM and there seems to be little more said against him than gut and wifom over the night actions. I don't want to see him lynched toDay. (Nothing wrong with gut reads; I just don't see the reason for them in this case.)

I really don't like the way Josh tricked HM into claiming.

I've been analysing the flow of votes from Day one. Based purely on those I'd be looking at SS, Josh, and Human, in that order, but I have a town read on SS (subject to review) so I'm back to my earlier scum read on Josh.

Vote: Josh

[Huntress]

I didn't trick him into claiming. I asked for a claim before a hammer. He should have been lynched by now.

When you asked him to claim there was only one vote on him. Yours. And you haven't given any good reason why anyone else should join you on that. A premature claim only serves to narrow down the field for scum to hit the doctor, if one exists.

Before huntress and Howard come in with their godly plays of me acting scum by posting ate and being defeatist, ...

Pretty sure I never said anything like that. Those are not scum tells by themselves. But accusing people of using them can be.

we all agree hm should be policy lynched if nothing else at some point because he has clear anti town play

If I wanted to policy lynch, it wouldn't be HM who seems to be willing to learn. Such lynches are fine for large, fast games but nine player games are too small for that. Policy lynches are actually quite rare here, though often suggested. What you are not saying, and I think you're too smart to overlook it, is that for every lynch we also lose a player through the nk that would have been very helpful to the town.

its awful to suggest doing that later as opposed to earlier, we dont want yet another day corrupted by a stupid policy lynch. that just gets scum closer to lylo which is beautiful for them. today is the day we do away with the probably-scum-definitely-useless player (btw hm jsyk i dont mean to be mean even it comes off that way i have nothing against you as a person im just competitive!!!!), so if the game does continue he wont constantly be there just to be there. what might be happening is scum howard wants me lynched today, gets a free policy lynch tomorrow, and wins in lylo with noobies, but tbh i just think its likely bad reading.

The day won't be corrupted if you just accept that he's not the lynch for toDay, and move on. By the way, I went back and looked at his earlier read on you, and your posts leading up to it, and I suspect he saw something in you that the others missed. I think that once he gets more confidence his reads could be very insightful.

[Huntress]

Maybe Howard isn't as towny as I thought in hindsight.

I don't see scum motivations for most of his actions, though. Troubling.

Maybe this is a bit nit-picky, but why was it "troubling" that you didn't see any scum motivations for his actions when you already had two good scumreads?

[Huntress]

My brain isn't functioning too well today because I'm down with a bad cold, but I'll try to post something later.

HM:

A couple of things you could do:
Try looking a Human's completed games to see how her play there compares with her play here.
Try looking at Jackel's posts to see if you can get any idea as to who his partner might be. Or look at how people interacted with, or avoided, him.

[Huntress]

Lining up lynches like this is a bad idea. We have five players with unknown alignments and only three lynches left.

If we can lynch three (and I thought we could only lynch 2) I will -gladly- put myself on the line to be lynched if Sobolev and HM flip town.

If you are town this is game-throwing. Don't do it. And of course if you are scum you would back down on it after getting your mislynches.

I'm wondering if your later offer to be lynched first is a scum gambit believing people will think you town for it and start with someone else instead. I'm also seeing a lot of buddying going on.

Preview edit: Yep. Looks like I may have been right.


Sorry this is a bit terse. This wretched cold is still bad and I haven't been able to focus on this for more than a few minutes at a time over the last couple of days. I can't see myself finishing the reviews I want to do until tomorrow.

[Huntress]

More or less caught up now.

After a review Josh is off my lynch list for today.

I'm back to my read of Human being Jackel's partner.

Her first vote on Jackel was rvs.
The second appeared to be just trying to get some action out of him.
In 259 she is scumreading Daya and SS, not even mentioning Jackel.
In 308 Jackel is "a little suspicious" but adds that his tables look legit.
After that she includes him in her scumlist but doesn't push him at all.
Then 460 reads like 'If that's the way the wind's blowing, it's time to bus.'.
She starts Day two by ruling out a bus by SS but changes her mind when short of viable lynch candidates.

I'm honestly still surprised I'm a lynch target considering how early I was on the jackel wagon and considering all the effort I've put into solving this game.

Third place place on the wagon is fairly normal for a bus. The placing shifted due to the unvotes and revotes surrounding the claim, but that was the position when you voted in 460.

I still need to review SS, but I completely disagree with Human's 688.

Vote: Human Sequencer

This is L-1.

[Huntress]

I'll get onto this tomorrow. Too late to think about it tonight.

[Huntress]

Yes, a goon and five townies are added to the three roles shown in each row or column.

Now that a cop has flipped the only possible combinations are:
Row 2: Mafia Roleblocker, Mafia Goon, Town Cop, Town Doctor, Vanilla Townie x 5
or
Column B: Mafia Goon x 2, Town Cop, Vanilla Townie x 6

Row two is unlikely (but still possible) so the current setup is probably column B.

[Huntress]

Sorry everyone; I just got a mental block when trying to look at this yesterday. I'll get on to it later today.

Welcome ThinkBig!

[Huntress]

@Huntress: Is your read of Joshz/ThinkBig changed from yesterday?

Not changed from my final read of the Day when I said I didn't want to lynch Josh, but I'm in two minds about the slot. I think if anyone deliberately let Locust get an investigation night one to throw us off the scent then Josh is a candidate, but I also think that Jackel thought Josh might be the doctor and was trying to tell his partner, in which case it couldn't be Josh.

@All: On day 3 how active are these games usually? This is my first but it seems a little dead. I figured it was just because we have fewer people now but idk.

Activity depends on availability to some extent. Not everyone can be on several times a day, or if they can they don't always have something to say, so might wait till they do have something new before posting. Some games go really fast if they have a group of high posters.

[Huntress]

Just a note to say that I've finished my review of SS and the case against her, and she still looks town to me. I'll look at Howard tomorrow.

[Huntress]

Howard looks town to me, so I'm back to looking at Josh/ThinkBig and HM. I can't make my mind up there yet.

[Huntress]

There's no reason to no-lynch. We usually only consider that when there's even numbers, particularly in mylo (mislynch and lose), to narrow the options. We haven't got that here.

I'm starting to come round to the idea that HM is the best lynch for toDay but I'm still bothered about the Josh/TB slot. I haven't been able to look at it today but I'll get on to it tomorrow.

Plus i would've unvoted if i'd saw that HS was going to get lynched.

Why would you have unvoted?

I agree. HM's flip will at least give the town information to go forward.

What information will HM's flip give us, if it doesn't end the game of course?

[Huntress]

Yet you were fine with leaving her at L-2 for two days?

[Huntress]

Yes.

[Huntress]

No. Why would you want to?

Except in

very very

rare cases self-voting is going against your win condition. We've already had one player doing that and we don't need another. If you are town you would be damaging our chances of winning by voting known town. If you are scum it would lose you the game.

The subject is addressed more eloquently than I could in the following thread:

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=59109


I'm waiting for ThinkBig to get back to me on my last question before making any decision.

[Huntress]

And another good reason to lynch HM since we need as many pro-town players as we can get.

Pro-town doesn't equal townie, in the same way as anti-town doesn't equal scummy.

[Huntress]

So that it isn't forgotten:

What information will HM's flip give us, if it doesn't end the game of course?

@Sobolev Space: Would you hammer if I switched my vote to Hellfire Missile?

I really didn't like this.

Why did you need to quote my question to ThinkBig "So that it isn't forgotten", when I had mentioned it only three posts before yours? It looks like you're trying to cover yourself while trying to rush the lynch to prevent further conversation with TB.

Fair enough. My biggest worry is that Howard is scum and is pushing a ThinkBig lynch today so the thread dies tomorrow and we all end up deciding on an HM lynch for him to win in lylo.

Yes. That's very much what it does look like. He's afraid of a mislynch slipping out of his hands.

@Huntress: are you still leaning towards ThinkBig being scum?

I'm still in two minds about him.

But I think I like this better for now:

Vote: HowardRoark

[Huntress]

@Huntress: Were you suspicious of Howard before the last couple of posts? If so why?

Not really. I didn't see anything that stood out as scummy, but the first part of 884 pinged me.

And then ThinkBig's switch to Howard right after my vote didn't feel so good either.

Since this is L-1 should Howard claim and everything or naw? I mean I'm assuming we're all VTs (except the remaining scum) so I guess claiming isn't that important... Unsure about norms here.

It's still good to wait before hammering, particularly as we'll be going into lylo if it's a mislynch.

[Huntress]

What are your thoughts on the answer? I'm not moved.

I was expecting a little more than just that it would narrow down the list. Almost any lynch would do that. But if he's town with only two suspects I can see his point.

I'm not sure how you feel differently about Sobolev Space's 889 regarding me.

Differently from what? I'm not sure what you mean here.

Can you please boil down you reason to vote me? Why me over ThinkBig?

It's gut mainly. With a bit of throwing a pebble into the water to see the ripples.

[Huntress]

@Huntress: Regarding 889, it reads of hedging bets; reading both posts from your point of view, I could have easily had a similar reaction to both. I often repost questions, from myself and others, which I feel are important. It was my question as well when I was reading through, but you asked it first. The "narrowing down of the list" was a garbage answer; while I agree that it makes sense, it's still garbage. If you weren't confirmed I would be after you for that acceptance. Your pebbles and ripples phrasing is causing me to reread differently.

Your earlier mention of 889 puzzled me because you seemed to be implying that I'd already commented on it when I hadn't. And no, I didn't have a similar reaction to both.

I didn't accept TB's reply. There was an "if" in that sentence. And as I said there, I was expecting more.

@Huntress, Howard, ThinkBig: Is there still not much support among y'all for an HM lynch today? I still think that would be by far the best lynch but if we're nearing the deadline and nobody else is on board I think I'll have to go with hammering ThinkBig.

I'm not seeing why you think HM is more likely to be scum than either of the other two? You keep saying he's the best lynch but as far as I can see from your ISO it's just because of night one. Is that right?

Between HM and Howard, I'd much prefer HM, though I'm fine with either. HM has been anti-town most of the game and is lynchbait. I'd rather him be lynched now and flip town than lynch him at LyLo and have him flip town.

Why? What changed between 888 and 906?

[Huntress]

@ SS: Thanks for the reply. I can see where you're coming from there, but I think I'd still rather see Howard or TB lynched today.

@Huntress: I asked about 889 because I wanted your thoughts and apparently didn't proof it properly. Can you please boil down you reason to vote me over ThinkBig?

I've already explained my vote. It was part gut and part exploratory.

Unvote

(pending TB's comments)

[Huntress]

Congrats to the mafia team! Well done.

Thanks for modding, Xalxe! (I missed having a dead thread though.)

I really didn't have anything else that pointed to Howard being mafia than what I've already said in the thread. In fact on Day three I was getting paranoid about SS, and rechecked her ISO a couple of times to remind myself of my read on her.

@ HM:

I think you've got good instincts. The best way to improve is to just keep playing, watch what other players do, and copy the methods that you think might work for you. Another suggestion is to read some of the old threads in the mafia discussion forum - there's some useful stuff in there. Also try these:
Fonzie's Guide to Early Game Survival for Newbies
A Beginner's Guide to Being Awesome At Mafia

I like to wait for the official end to discuss. *shrug*

Yep, so do I. Some mods get fussy about it too so it's best to wait.

[Huntress]

Posts like 311, 725, 924 show that you're noticing things and following them up.

Being wrong doesn't matter, because you can use that to refine your methods in future. You can learn from it.