[Game Over] Newbie 1784 - Escape Room

[Drixx]

Before Pine was being replaced I preferred a WhyMafia lynch because given nancy and pine's close relationship it's likely that if one of them is town they will accurately read the other at some point in the game. I've had success with forcing close players to read each other. But with pine being replaced that is lost.

@nancy-- Please explain your pine vote and then unvote.

Well now that Pine is replacing out I don't mind saying this anymore but basically I've had a secret scumread on Pine for most of the game and have been dancing with him to get a feel on whether that read is accurate or not. I bit on his push on Noodle and sold a few hard reads to see how he'd react. When he then came back and nearly mirrored my reads, that was a sign to me that (he thought) he had pocketed me. Since he posted his readslist, most of my focus has been on sorting his scumreads, especially Noodle. The way that Noodle has conducted his push on Pine has seemed fairly townie and essentially me sorting Noodle as Town sorts Pine as scum by PoE. But it's not just Noodle. I've sorted you and src as Town and Tes remains the only one I'm not really able to sort anywhere. The Tracker claim eliminates another slot that I was suspecting due to associatives with Pine, and leaves only WM and Chronicle with strong Pine associatives.

Here's the thing though, I can't allow myself to conf!bias on that PoE and assume that I am actually correct in my read on Pine, and if Noodle is scum (and he's been behaving like scum for most of the game) then that functionally confirms Pine as Town. So my vote was because I wanted to see who would join the wagon, which would help me feel better about where I had sorted people, and my unvote was because Noodle unvoted and I need to sort him more.

You shouldn't have made this post. It would have been much better for getting a read on me coming in if you had let me read the thread and believe you were town reading me because of how Pine handled the slot, so you could watch and see if I tried to stick to what he was doing, struck off in my own direction, or whatever.

Hi Drixx. You scum this time?

Hi Nancy. I am not. Care to throw some questions at me and help me get into the game quicker?

[Drixx]

Noodle needs to stop dancing with words and just talk.

He has a small point that talking about game theory and such is not really content, but you have more than 100 posts and far more of them have content than just helping newer players get engaged, so it's only a small point and nowhere near worth even a light scum read. It seems like a really poor pretense to push on.

I need to read some more. I've only read you and Noodle in ISO and bits and pieces of the rest.

[Drixx]

The reason that someone who never buses is not committing a trust tell when they point to that as a reason to believe they are town is because even a thousand game record of not busing does NOT and CAN not inform you about whether or not the player is busing in the current game.

By definition, a trust tell is an action that someone always takes as a given alignment, and it is an infraction only when it is advertised for gain. Since NOT busing is by definition a LACK of action, it doesn't meet the standard. I modded a newbie game last year where the game (and another) were severely impacted because of this particular argument, and the list mods spent time and came to the conclusion I just gave ... sadly not in time to save my game from being prematurely ended.


@Noodle - What's hard to believe about someone keeping thoughts to herself for a couple weeks? I've played games on this site that went 6+ months and I could point you to a game where I caught a scum slip and didn't say anything for nearly a month. I made sure it was a slip and worked out all the implications and then went on the offensive when the time was right. It's not at all wise to reveal your cards until you're prepared to use them. Why do you believe differently?

Also ... saying you're not going to get lynched looks a LOT like bravado. I'm tempted to try and put you at L-1 just to see what you do.

[Drixx]

Also ... saying you're not going to get lynched looks a LOT like bravado. I'm tempted to try and put you at L-1 just to see what you do.

Just because you feel like I'm pushing my luck? That would just be stupidity. I feel certain I won't get lynched.

Because you are making posts that are designed to make people believe you don't care if you get wagoned or lynched. That's precisely what scum want the rest of the game to think. Town will go to the gallows so that people will take them seriously and look into what they are saying. I've done it many times. Scum want to stay alive at any cost. The fact that you are spending a bunch of time posturing is really bothering me.

[Drixx]

Interesting gambit. I can't decide which alignment it makes more sense for. Like ... it has been demonstrated that an early BP claim is mechanically absurd and nearly breaks the newbie setup, so sitting on it for that long seems a little off, especially when I know for a fact you've seen the mechanical ploy wreck into a completely perfect win. I'm also going to admit to a little bias because you are now like 0 for 3 in reading me and have claimed you were sure I was scum each time.

I can kind of see both worlds being plausible. Can you help me with a run down on the events of the day in temporal order and what you were thinking at each moment and what the reasoning was that led you to play things out this way.

[Drixx]

If someone survives the night, it means we have a doc. Not sure if scum are allowed to not vote, but to do so would for certain be a risk. They'd let a player stay alive, on the assumption we'll end up lynching nancy.

This post is super contradictory. First you say that if someone survives the night (presumably you mean if no kill happens?), then it means we have doctor ... which is not at all a sound conclusion. Then you express the idea that scum would not kill in order to frame Nancy.

Like ... you basically just scum claimed and cleared Nancy with this post.


P-Edit: It is not necessarily better for a doctor to counterclaim at this point. If we assume Nancy is fake claiming and that there is a doctor, it seems reasonable the doctor could attempt a save tonight to try and get extra utility. Trading 1-for-1 is always to town advantage in the newbie setup; however, there's no pressing reason to settle for ONLY trading 1-for-1. Stopping a night kill and THEN doing the trade would be much more powerful.

[Drixx]

That's a probabilistic argument and it fails in light of the fact that we have information to work with. In fact ... I would go so far as to say that how Nancy responds to my request will have a HUGE impact on how the rest of this plays out. Try to read between the lines BlackVoid. If scum is who I think it is, I'm quite sure they will see what you didn't.

[Drixx]

Like ... you basically just scum claimed and cleared Nancy with this post.

How is that post a scumclaim and not just poor logic?

The thought process that produces that post isn't a town thought process, imo. Do you disagree?

[Drixx]

Calling it now. Loopdan and Noodles.

[Drixx]

The planting of the idea that a kill won't happen and thus we lynch Nancy is why that post is scummy. There's a clear intended end point where a town player would be actually thinking about the different possibilities. It's not like the idea is super complex. It's literally a post with one aim, and that's to ensure nancy gets lynched.

I've seen this kind of slip quite a lot. He's scum. I will put my own skin on the line even. I'm that sure.

And that's without even going into the REST of the problems in the ISO.

[Drixx]

The difference is that noodle said that a lack of kill would/should result in you being lynched while Srceenplay simply said if the claimed tracker doesn't die, then you shouldn't be viewed as conftown.

There's a world of difference between those two assertions. One is standing on really wobbly ground and is setting you up for a lynch and the other simply points out that a lack of flipped tracker means you can't be considered confirmed. That's a simple point of fact.

[Drixx]

Alright. And would you care to correct him as IC that I am conf!town by virtue of not having been CC'd?

Without a counterclaim, you are as close to confirmed town as it gets in a newbie game short of a cop clear. There are edge cases in the possibility space, but they are so unlikely as to be absurd to consider.

So reaching way into those tiny corners of the possibility space and pushing the idea that a no kill should result in your lynch ... that just doesn't come from a town mind. And that leaves aside the whole rest of the ISO.

[Drixx]

I disagree with the idea that town should never lie. There are several circumstances when town SHOULD lie, in fact. Not many in a newbie game though.

[Drixx]

I'm sorry for not giving comprehensive reads nancy, although that's sort of par for the course early game for me. I approach mafia from a rationalist perspective. Day one is literally the worst ever for me because of the near total lack of actual KNOWN info. Like ... I have strong opinions on 4 slots. Two are almost certainly PRs and the other two are my current guess at the scum team.

You already know why for noodle. For Loopdan I couldn't really have made it any more succinct than you did. Asking questions but giving no firm positions is a good way to appear active and engaged without actually giving anything that can tie you down later. Smooth operator MO. But ... it's day one. Take metaphorical swinging for the fences for what it is. You and I are equally unlikely to actually nail it day one (although it does occasionally happen as we've seen).

[Drixx]

Fyi Drixx if you are Town I am not too impressed by this EoD from you.

Erm... sorry. I actually expected that I was roped already. It's passover and I told you my town reads and my scum reads, which is pretty solid as far as day one goes for me. If not for the claims (which is neither here nor there but something worth talking about after), I would have far less to leave as my legacy.

I'm actually kind of surprised. I checked in after I got done with my work for today because I didn't recall a PM about being dead and there was like 9 more pages, and somehow I went from L-1 to not going to be lynched back to I think about to be lynched again.

See my earlier post for my thoughts and reads when you see me bleed green. I'm sorry that I'm not better at day one than I am.

[Drixx]

I may have replaced into a doomed slot, but it's not a SCUM slot. I'm just terribad at day one, which is one of the reasons I play in the newbie queue continuously. I figure some ways to get better day one will stick eventually. It's a matter of checking my day one in games and you'll see a very slight upward trend from my first game on site until now. Easy to confirm and not a really good defense if I actually were scum.

I'm not going to wade into Amished tell territory, so let it suffice to say that a great many day one mislynches go against town players who say something in a way that others believe is scummy. Given that I am not Pine, and thus cannot possibly know what motivated his posts, there's literally nothing I can do about it, except to leave my reads and thoughts and hope you guys carry the rest.

If I

were

a doomed scum slot, as BV suggests, please explain why I didn't hammer myself to cut the day off and stop any further info or reads development? I'm certainly good enough as scum to know when to cut bait, and I obviously expected my lynch was fait accompli or I would have posted more.

Basically proof by induction that I'm town, for those who see it.

[Drixx]

VOTE: Drixx
One down

Your vote was already on Drixx ... why were you trying to hammer?

For future reference, you should not interfere when someone is running a gambit. When someone who is already voting a wagon pretends to hammer, it is usually to check for a reaction. You pointing it out immediately took away any chance of Srceenplay getting a reaction from me in a situation where I may have believed I was lynched.

[Drixx]

A much better place to look for scum me is Steven Universe 2. In fact, the game you linked was basically a good example of why one should take a short break after long and exhausting games lol.

And who said I gave up? I simply pointed out that I replaced into what seems like a doomed slot, and after giving my thoughts I expected the lynch to be imminent. Nobody is more surprised than me that it didn't play out that way.

P-Edit: I could just quote YOU making posts pointing out the issues with Noodle if you really want nancy?

Like. I take it as a granted that you are competent and then some, so it follows that your own issues with Noodle plus what I pointed out is probably something stronger than weak evidence.

[Drixx]

Fyi Drixx if you are Town I am not too impressed by this EoD from you.

Erm... sorry. I actually expected that I was roped already. It's passover and I told you my town reads and my scum reads, which is pretty solid as far as day one goes for me. If not for the claims (which is neither here nor there but something worth talking about after), I would have far less to leave as my legacy.

I'm actually kind of surprised. I checked in after I got done with my work for today because I didn't recall a PM about being dead and there was like 9 more pages, and somehow I went from L-1 to not going to be lynched back to I think about to be lynched again.

See my earlier post for my thoughts and reads when you see me bleed green. I'm sorry that I'm not better at day one than I am.

Surprise doesn't feel real here. But then, it's Drixx, and a lot of his emotion just comes off as fake to me.

That's because I don't

generally

play emotionally. The rare times when I do haven't gone so well. Space Dandy 2 between Titus and I is the "gold standard" for that.

[Drixx]

Also, if I flip scum, what would you do D2

And if I flip town, what would you do D2

The (spiteful/mad) town version of this is: "When I flip town, then what are you going to do?" (note that this version offers no help to the claimed win con).

The proper town version of this is: "When I flip town, please consider X, Y and Zed." (in other words, give reads and info dump).

I don't believe any town version of the post includes a townie entertaining himself flipping as scum.

[Drixx]

I've seen this kind of slip quite a lot. He's scum.

I will put my own skin on the line even. I'm that sure.

I approach mafia from a rationalist perspective. Day one is literally the worst ever for me because of the near total lack of actual KNOWN info.

@Drixx, these two quotes don't really add up for me. Why would a rational player who is aware that D1 is the worst ever for him put his own skin on the line for a D1 scumread?

Some things just always come from scum. See it enough times and even I will catch it.

[Drixx]

Really? You agreed earlier that there was evidence by induction that I'm not scum and you hammer me? How does that make ANY sense?

There was something bugging me about Drixx. I finally found what I was looking for. A recently completed game I spectated. Here is a Drixx post:

So what you're saying is that only your pride matters. You realize that we've been mislynched ONCE EVER, and that's featured in our signature.

Individually, we also both pride ourselves on not being mislynched.

The slot was scum so he may have been lying but I don't know why scum would lie about something like this. Assuming that's the truth, Drixx's play here doesn't come across like the play of someone who's almost mislynched and (seemingly) takes pride in that.

I don't know anyone who counts newbie games on their stats. Given that I am always experimenting with my game in newbie games, I draw suspicion fairly frequently, and if I can't shake it and I'm worried scum could use me for the clinching mislynch, I will often advocate that I be lynched before M/LYLO.

When it comes to my hydra with Cerberus ... I believe he has NEVER been mislynched playing by himself, and I think we have been only once in hydra, which is where the quote in the hydra's signature comes from.

If that's true he's exactly like me. I've never been mislynched outside of newbies, largely because I devour wagons on me whole.

This. Except I've not gotten good enough to just make myself blatantly obvious town. I think the whole fact that the day would have ended days ago with a self hammer since I have been the designated lynch since before I replaced in should have been a pretty good argument in my favor.

In any case, my thoughts:

Noodle is scum. Just ... no ifs ands or buts. Certain things only come from a scum mindset and setting someone up to be lynched if a certain condition is met, and that condition can easily be met by the scum team making a choice ... that just doesn't come from town.

Presuming scum!Noodle, I think Loopdan makes the most sense to be his partner.

I don't like some of the posts by Srceenplay but I can't say whether it's scummy or just I don't like the posts, lol.

[Drixx]

I think noodle would have gone. In fact ... the amount of resistance to that and ease of a wagon on me is kind of an indication all by itself.

It is what it is though.

A chance? Sure. Likely? I didn't see anything that made me question mindset.