Newbie 1843 - Game Over

eth0s
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Post Post #325  (ISO)  » Tue Jan 16, 2018 6:30 pm

In post 324, eth0s wrote:That actually is awfully scummy of Nauci. Still don't trust cabd, though.

It wouldn't be as scummy if she weren't SE...

@Nauci Good luck in the ER btw. Truly hope you make a speedy recovery.

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Post Post #326  (ISO)  » Tue Jan 16, 2018 6:33 pm

The "BP" trap is pretty much THE major reasoning that pushed us to design the new newbie setup (which is live now, this game is pretty much the last on the old setup)

I'd have to go check but I'm pretty damn sure Nacui implied knowledge of it in the past.

(SO yes, to be clear, that is me expressing an explicit scumread on her for it)
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Huntress
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Post Post #327  (ISO)  » Tue Jan 16, 2018 7:20 pm

Vote Count 2.2Cabd (2) - Shattiel, brassherald

Not voting (5) - Alonzo, Cabd, eth0s, HeWhoSwims, Nauci


With seven players alive, it takes four votes to lynch.

Deadline for Day Two is Monday, 29th January, 6.30 pm GMT, (in (expired on 2018-01-29 18:30:00)).
.

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Post Post #328  (ISO)  » Wed Jan 17, 2018 1:30 am

In post 322, Cabd wrote:
In post 321, brassherald wrote:
In post 300, Nauci wrote:Is that worse than potentially having a conftown ride into lylo?


Actually, if this is still about a Town BP, what would we do if mafia just claimed town BP, and no one counter claims because there actually is no Town BP? Claiming town BP at this point would not create a conftown unless we found a Mafia Roleblocker.

This is too complicated, basically, I do not think we should have anyone claiming BP, since the assumption that no mafia would claim that is pretty much out the window right now.

DING DING DING, we have a winner.

Nacui fishing for if it's safe to claim BP here and ride it. UNfortunate given health issues but that doesn't change the color of the role PM she got.
Why did you wait for someone to point it out?
Don't tell me you did it because you're IC.
I bet you're just sheeping him.

eth0s
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Post Post #329  (ISO)  » Wed Jan 17, 2018 1:56 am

fuck it
VOTE: cabd

eth0s
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Post Post #330  (ISO)  » Wed Jan 17, 2018 1:56 am

That's L-1

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Post Post #331  (ISO)  » Wed Jan 17, 2018 2:00 am

Sigh. Apparently playing like a active PR and hoping to eat a bullet AND then coming short of explicitly claiming bulletproof isn't enough?
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Post Post #332  (ISO)  » Wed Jan 17, 2018 2:02 am

In post 297, Cabd wrote:Quick, somebody else tell me why 294 is terrible~

In post 322, Cabd wrote:
In post 321, brassherald wrote:
In post 300, Nauci wrote:Is that worse than potentially having a conftown ride into lylo?


Actually, if this is still about a Town BP, what would we do if mafia just claimed town BP, and no one counter claims because there actually is no Town BP? Claiming town BP at this point would not create a conftown unless we found a Mafia Roleblocker.

This is too complicated, basically, I do not think we should have anyone claiming BP, since the assumption that no mafia would claim that is pretty much out the window right now.

DING DING DING, we have a winner.

Nacui fishing for if it's safe to claim BP here and ride it. UNfortunate given health issues but that doesn't change the color of the role PM she got.

Also context is fucking tech.
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Post Post #333  (ISO)  » Wed Jan 17, 2018 2:03 am

It's fairly obvious nauci was testing the waters if they could figure out my BP status; by trying to draw me out.

Congrats, they did it.
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Post Post #334  (ISO)  » Wed Jan 17, 2018 2:04 am

All the sighs in the world.

I'm going to bed because I'm not gonna be able to say nice things right now.
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eth0s
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Post Post #335  (ISO)  » Wed Jan 17, 2018 2:13 am

UNVOTE: cabd
There's a claim at least. Guess we are playing the BP game after all. Please everyone make a post stating that you are
a. CC'ing
b. NOT CC'ing

(counter-claiming 1SBP or not counter-claiming 1SBP)
Let's avoid lynching anyone until everyone answers.

NOT CC'ing 1SBP

eth0s
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Post Post #336  (ISO)  » Wed Jan 17, 2018 2:15 am

In post 333, Cabd wrote:It's fairly obvious nauci was testing the waters if they could figure out my BP status; by trying to draw me out.

Congrats, they did it.

Also why do you say they were looking to you for answers. Currently doing schoolwork so I can't re-read atm but this looks like a fake BP claim to save face imo.

eth0s
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Post Post #337  (ISO)  » Wed Jan 17, 2018 2:16 am

In post 336, eth0s wrote:
In post 333, Cabd wrote:It's fairly obvious nauci was testing the waters if they could figure out my BP status; by trying to draw me out.

Congrats, they did it.

Also why do you say they were looking to you for 1sbp claim? Currently doing schoolwork so I can't re-read atm but this looks like a fake BP claim to save face imo.

eth0s
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Post Post #338  (ISO)  » Wed Jan 17, 2018 2:17 am

^ that's an ebwop btw.

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Post Post #339  (ISO)  » Wed Jan 17, 2018 4:02 am

VOTE: Nauci

eth0s
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Post Post #340  (ISO)  » Wed Jan 17, 2018 4:30 am

In post 339, Shattiel wrote:VOTE: Nauci


Can you please state whether you are CC'ing 1SBP or not? Assuming no since you're voting Nauci, but still I think we should at least see if someone is going to CC.

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Post Post #341  (ISO)  » Wed Jan 17, 2018 4:31 am

In post 340, eth0s wrote:
In post 339, Shattiel wrote:VOTE: Nauci


Can you please state whether you are CC'ing 1SBP or not? Assuming no since you're voting Nauci, but still I think we should at least see if someone is going to CC.
nop

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Post Post #342  (ISO)  » Wed Jan 17, 2018 4:32 am

In post 340, eth0s wrote:
In post 339, Shattiel wrote:VOTE: Nauci


Can you please state whether you are CC'ing 1SBP or not? Assuming no since you're voting Nauci, but still I think we should at least see if someone is going to CC.


And did cabd really convince you that quickly that he's the 1SBP? You know scum will fake-claim it when it doesn't exist, right? Especially when they're backed into a corner. Hell, at that point they are even pretty likely to claim it when it does exist.

eth0s
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Post Post #343  (ISO)  » Wed Jan 17, 2018 4:33 am

In post 341, Shattiel wrote:
In post 340, eth0s wrote:
In post 339, Shattiel wrote:VOTE: Nauci


Can you please state whether you are CC'ing 1SBP or not? Assuming no since you're voting Nauci, but still I think we should at least see if someone is going to CC.
nop

was town-reading you up until now.. this seems awfully vague and somewhat scummy..

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Post Post #344  (ISO)  » Wed Jan 17, 2018 5:12 am

Literally only the mafia knows whether there's a 1SBP or not. If scum is Roleblocker-Goon, then we do have the 1SBP. If scum is Goon-Goon then we don't.

By the way I do not CC the 1SBP claim

Let me try out a few scenarios.

1 - Scum is RB-Goon. Cabd is town. 1SBP claim is just about set in stone, since why the fuck would a townie fakeclaim it (well I saw one game doing it but that seemed like a mess. I think eth0s played in that one).

2 - Scum is RB-Goon. Cabd is the Roleblocker and fakeclaims 1SBP. This draws out a counterclaim since there is an actual 1SBP. Since I think counterclaims are believed before normal claims and seeing Cabd is already one of the most suspicous players, this would be a risk for scum!Cabd

3 - Scum is RB-Goon. Cabd is the goon and fakeclaims 1SBP. This is similar to scenario 2. Still a big risk for scum!Cabd

What I'm drawing from this: If we flip a RB, then Cabd is probably actually the 1SBP.

4 - Scum is Goon-Goon. There is no 1SBP so in this scenario any 1SBP claim is fake. I doubt the benefits of fakeclaiming 1SBP as town. It keeps you alive because scum might not want to waste their NK on you but in the case of town!Cabd who is pretty suspected, it doesn't help town to go to lylo with town!Cabd.

5 - Scum is Goon-Goon, Cabd is a goon. No counterclaim will be possible since there's no actual 1SBP. If believed, Cabd stays alive of course. Ideal scenario for scum.

In short... If we somehow someway flip an RB then Cabd is probably innocent. If there's no RB flip however then I'm unsure where we are because all 5 are possible without an RB flip. And between 4 and 5 it's hard to pinpoint which one we are in, it still would be based on gameplay and reads et cetera.

Here's the thing, Shattiel said Cabd and Alonzo were a scumteam. Shattiel, I'd love to hear some more reasons for their individual suspicions (I don't think association alone before a scum flip is enough for a lynch). However, say we assume this. Then Alonzo could be an info lynch. If Alonzo flips town, we are in trouble, that's for sure, and I'm not sure that flip would even clear Cabd for me so much. If Alonzo flips RB, then Cabd is probably town. If Alonzo flips goon then... I'm not even so sure since it still leaves us with 5 scenarios, but there is still the association. Talking about which, after scanning ISOs, an Alonzo scum flip would make Cabd more suspicious to me than a Cabd scum flip would make Alonzo, if that makes sense.

Would love to hear thoughts on this above.

Reads list later! I promise, I'm busy :(

eth0s
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Post Post #345  (ISO)  » Wed Jan 17, 2018 5:32 am

Good analysis. Without the game ending, with our jailor dead, the only way to know if someone is lying about 1sbp is to see them flip something else, or see someone else flip 1sbp. Technically if jailor were alive (we still wouldn't really know if a 1sbp were in the game), he could jail someone that still dies. Then he would know 1SBP is confirmed because his jailed target died meaning he was roleblocked himself (following natural action resolution). But, again, this is all theoretical and it's knowledge that the jailor likely wouldn't disclose. Especially early on.

In essence, we currently 100% cannot know whether we have 1SBP or not without both scum flipping (town victory) or a bp flipping. 2 goons or RB/goon does not matter at this point. Roleblocking has no effect on 1sbp or townies anyway.

The way I see it, town needs to decide whether having a BP is more important, or if not having a potential scum as conftown is more important.

Very much looking forward to posts from Cabd and Nauci.

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Post Post #346  (ISO)  » Wed Jan 17, 2018 5:46 am

No cc here.

VOTE: nauci

I honestly don't see why cabd would get me to point out that 1sbp has a good chance to be a fake claim if he was just going to fake claim it.

I would think that if he was the scum fake claiming, he would just have called it out when Nauci suggested it and not bothered to teach his lesson since this situation will never come up again with the new system. This way just seems too complicated to be a scum play when the simple one was lying right in front of us.

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Post Post #347  (ISO)  » Wed Jan 17, 2018 11:07 am

@Shattiel

Still think its me and Cabd?

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Post Post #348  (ISO)  » Wed Jan 17, 2018 4:19 pm

Oh shit

I didn't realize that I guess now it's a 50/50 on BP vs no bp

One of the issues I had with bp game was that it revealed the setup unnecessarily, and thought since they would already know, it would mean there's no point hiding it. I didn't think far enough about that.

Sorry I'm throwing this :<

Also, not bp.

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Post Post #349  (ISO)  » Wed Jan 17, 2018 4:24 pm

In post 331, Cabd wrote:Sigh. Apparently playing like a active PR and hoping to eat a bullet AND then coming short of explicitly claiming bulletproof isn't enough?


I actually really don't see where you were playing like an active PR, or coming short of claiming BP at any point, tbh.

Can you elaborate on this?

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