Newbie 1889: Ice Cream (Game Over)

[xwing]

okay i see..im still trying to run it in my head..but do you see where my question is coming from, volxen?

it doesn't make sense for me for scum to avoid killing one of the PRs..unless WIFOM..
if i were scum and know that both volxen and ceej are PR, i would RB volxen then kill ceej to ensure at least one PR is surely killed..next night volxen will surely be dead..
and i have still setup a mislynch on whoever got jailed the first night..

who would benefit most from no-kill? for me it's ceejay..

mafia RB blocks JK!volxen
volxen jails someone but fails coz of RB - someone becomes perfect setup for mislynch [sky]
mafia chooses no-kill
ceej looks golden as doc, can out real doc at the same time (if there is one)

but volxen's scenario A does make a lot of sense as well..assuming that mafia thinks there's a very slim chance the other scum wont be jailed..

if we extend volxen's scenario A and then think we're on column C instead of A, i will daresay both ceej/sky scum team..ceej avoiding to do the kill from fear of being jailed by volxen coz of suspicion..then volxen correctly jailing scum!sky preventing the kill..

if we're in column A, i think scum's best play would be killing doc..but WIFOM zzzzz..

i dunno what's the smart play to do here..
a. if we have tracker, we shouldn't have a doctor..should we ask tracker to claim? (yes for me)
b. if we have a real doctor, should they counter claim now? (yes for me)
c. should we flip ceej to confirm his role (not sure if this is the smartest play..the info we gain from flipping ceej is knowledge of the setup assuming he's not VT fake claiming as doc to avoid lynch, which would be very anti-town play anyway..i believe JK!volxen so if ceej flips doc, we're in A..if ceej flips scum, i will flip sky as well..means we're most likely in C)

that said, im not sure of the smartness of my letter c. thinking, but in the absence of any other PR claim or cc, im willing to put my head on the chopping block..

VOTE: ceejay

[ceejayvinoya]

I'm getting the feeling scum no-killed to support the doc claim and to out the real doc whilst creating a mslynch today (the JK target). They would've RB'd Ceejay and shot volxen otherwise. Chances of volxen JK'ing the shooter is pretty slim but will be interesting to know who the target was.

Dislike skygazer's response as its what I'd expect from scum if my theory is true.

idgi how could the jk be today's mislynch target? He's the JK.

I don't understand why scum at this point will not shoot anyone. Doesn't leaving both PRs make the game unnecessarily harder for them?

sure assuming that I'm fake doc and we planned to out the real doc and it somehow worked, my buddy in that situation would still have to deal with the JK.

[ceejayvinoya]

VOTE: Skygazer

[ceejayvinoya]

i take back everything i said scum definitely must have no kill gambitted

Towny.

VOTE: Ceejayvinoya

You being alive is enough really.

Why? Volxen is equally alive.

[ceejayvinoya]

Scenario A: What I described in my post. The mafia roleblocker blocked CJ and Skygazer tried to kill me, but the kill failed because I put her in jail.

Scenario B: The no-kill gambit. The scumteam purposefully doesn't kill anyone so they can frame the JK target to be mislynched on day 2.

The problem I'm having with scenario B is, does it really provide a greater benefit to the scumteam in the long run compared to scenario A? it also has some risk, in the event that I actually do end up jailing scum, as opposed to a townie, which means they have to abort the entire plan of framing the JK target for the day 2 mislynch.

Exactly what I was trying to say. Arghhh

[ceejayvinoya]

We could always set things up this way: lynch sky. If she flips town, lynch me tomorrow. If she flips scum, then yay.

[xwing]

I'm getting the feeling scum no-killed to support the doc claim and to out the real doc whilst creating a mislynch today (the JK target).

idgi how could the jk be today's mislynch target? He's the JK.

ceej, CT meant the potential mislynch is whoever the JK chose to target (e.g. sky)..

[xwing]

i take back everything i said scum definitely must have no kill gambitted

Towny.

We could always set things up this way: lynch sky. If she flips town, lynch me tomorrow. If she flips scum, then yay.

i dont get the townie vibe from sky's post that CT mentioned..
@CT can you elaborate?

i feel like ceej's post is more townie..but i need more convincing..
also now i dont think my scum partners are viable (ceej/sky)..unless this is some kind of sacrificial bus to cement town!ceej..

[CheekyTeeky]

i dont get the townie vibe from sky's post that CT mentioned..
@CT can you elaborate?

I felt like sky opening the way she did today could only mean 1 of 2 things:

1. She knew she was roleblocked and opened the way she did to look towny by saying the person should be lynched knowing it was herself.
2. She was going to lynch whoever was JK'd until she realised it was herself and then said it was a set-up.

As I already said I feel like the no-kill it's a set-up I'm biased into believing the latter argument.

[ceejayvinoya]

But 1 and 2 are the same thing! You only said each differently.

[Reundo]

Okay wait, so if both claims are true and we are in fact in setup A2... then shouldn't the optimal scum play be to roleblock volxen and kill ceejay? I'm pretty sure scum!sky would've realized this as well and not put herself into this predicament, and it seems far too risky for scum to no-kill with both PRs outed. Either scum clearly didn't think this through or we aren't actually in a setup with a roleblocker. I mean, that would still probably mean Sky's scum unless scum intentionally no nked, which seems to be quite a lot of risk to take for a single mislynch, but that would also introduce the possibility of a Sky/ceejay team. I can't really wrap my head around both PRs being alive D2. Nothing's really adding up for me. I was initially going to vote Skygazer, but the more I look at the game the more mind boggling it becomes. I'm probably still fine with voting Skygazer since a lot of the scenarios running through my mind end up directing back to her being scum, but when I'm less tired I'm going to try to make more sense out of all of this.

VOTE: Skygazer

[CheekyTeeky]

That was a very scummy post^

[CheekyTeeky]

Thor direct us dear leader.

[Thor665]

i take back everything i said scum definitely must have no kill gambitted

Towny.

I read it as cheeky scum joking with us.

Having now read your theory explanation - did you consider the possibility that Sky is the Roleblocker - which would actually explain their behavior in a scum light very easily?

@Thor, I would like you to respond to the viability and likelihood of this whole no-kill gambit thing as both Thor the player and as the IC, if you don't mind.

That's a silly question since you're asking me a theory question and I have to answer that as the IC, and since I can't lie as IC if I'm scum my "player" answer is going to have to be the same unless I'm dumb, and if I'm town my "player" answer will be the same because I'm not lying.
So if you want "both" answers just pretend I wrote this twice;

In a purely competitive sense, the only time that no lynching is optimal scum play is if at least one (or both) of the PR claims are scum.
I find that unlikely - because everyone has posted and we haven't got any counterclaims.

That means we can know for an absolute fact that our Jailkeeper claim is town

For the record, if anyone out there has a PR claim that suggests the JKer is lying *NOW* is the time to make said claim. Any counter JKer claim after this day phase should be taken as a scum claim.

So, we now know for a fact the JKer is town.
That leaves us a question mark on the Doc, and a question mark on the target of the jail.

If the Doc is scum, optimal scum play was to kill the JKer and claim you were roleblocked.
If the Doc was town optimal scum play was to roleblock the Doc and kill the JKer.

So, the fact that no one died tells us for a fact that either scum didn't play optimally or that Skygazer is scum.

That gives us a 50/50 random for Sky to be scum, which makes him absolutely who we should lynch today because it's better odds than anyone else (this is predicated on a lack of counterclaim, natch).

This being a Newbie game I'm not fully willing to rule out the idea that scum played badly enough to no kill - I've seen that happen plenty.
But I don't see any value in leaving Sky alive based on that fear, as his slot has not otherwise been particularly townish.

Does that answer your question?

Okay wait, so if both claims are true and we are in fact in setup A2... then shouldn't the optimal scum play be to roleblock volxen and kill ceejay? I'm pretty sure scum!sky would've realized this as well and not put herself into this predicament, and it seems far too risky for scum to no-kill with both PRs outed. Either scum clearly didn't think this through or we aren't actually in a setup with a roleblocker. I mean, that would still probably mean Sky's scum unless scum intentionally no nked, which seems to be quite a lot of risk to take for a single mislynch, but that would also introduce the possibility of a Sky/ceejay team. I can't really wrap my head around both PRs being alive D2. Nothing's really adding up for me. I was initially going to vote Skygazer, but the more I look at the game the more mind boggling it becomes. I'm probably still fine with voting Skygazer since a lot of the scenarios running through my mind end up directing back to her being scum, but when I'm less tired I'm going to try to make more sense out of all of this.

Where is the current situation losing you?
You feel very lost from what I would expect, even though you very aggressively tossed out a vote while claiming so much confusion.

[Reundo]

That was a very scummy post^

Why?

If the Doc was town optimal scum play was to roleblock the Doc and kill the JKer.

This is the thing I'm not getting -- why would that be the optimal scum play? Not roleblocking the JK opens up the opportunity for the JK to block the scum kill like what apparently happened today. But if scum rb'ed the JK instead of the doc, then the JK wouldn't be able to jail anyone since the rb'er blocked them first and they'd be able to kill the doc outright. Getting a guaranteed kill seems like a much better strategy than scum needlessly opening themselves up to be rb'ed. Like yeah, it still could be not optimal play from scum, but I'd expect most players here to realize this would be the optimal play here if they were scum. I really just can't see a world where scum rb'ing doc and killing JK could possibly be better than scum rb'ing JK and killing doc or just scum no-killing outright.

Where is the current situation losing you?

Just the fact that I can't see scum not rb'ing JK if we're in A2 or scum just no-killing in general in any setup. I mean, it's always possible scum is acting not optimally, but it seems like a silly mistake to make if my reasoning is correct.

You feel very lost from what I would expect, even though you very aggressively tossed out a vote while claiming so much confusion.

"Very aggressively tossed out a vote"??? What, do you think all votes are aggressive or something? I don't really want to wallow around this phase not-voting, and I felt that overall Skygazer seemed like the better lynch, since regardless of whether or not ceejay is fake-claiming it's fairly likely that scum!Sky was just rb'ed rather than scum intentionally no-killing or actually directing the kill at her. I'm pretty sure you'd make a similar fuss if I didn't vote as well, so this is just pretty pointless shade.

[Thor665]

I really just can't see a world where scum rb'ing doc and killing JK could possibly be better than scum rb'ing JK and killing doc or just scum no-killing outright.

No killing doesn't really benefit scum wincon in this situation unless your argument is that netting a Star mislynch is super helpful to them and they're planning to keep no killing in order to allow town to keep lynching suspect slots that are Jailed. If scum wants to do that I'm, personally, quite content with their play - why do you see this as optimal for them?
The point of killing JKer over Doc is that the JKer can be confirmed as town, whereas the Doc cannot - therefore 100% they can't get a JKer mislynch, but they could theoretically get a Doc mislynch. Ergo, you kill confirmed town.
I suppose I could see an argument of playing the long game as "safer" in exchange for confirming the Doc to town, I don't agree with it being optimal, but I can see the argument.

Just the fact that I can't see scum not rb'ing JK if we're in A2 or scum just no-killing in general in any setup. I mean, it's always possible scum is acting not optimally, but it seems like a silly mistake to make if my reasoning is correct.

So let's take that down the road - your theory argument is that the JKer is scum?
Wouldn't that require there to be someone who could counterclaim the JKer?
Where is this person?

If we accept JKer as town (which all evidence 100% supports barring a counterclaim, then you know scum didn't RB them - work forward from that point, yeah?

"Very aggressively tossed out a vote"??? What, do you think all votes are aggressive or something?

No, I don't.
But you casting one while claiming confusion and a need to re-read/re-analyze seems strange.

I don't really want to wallow around this phase not-voting,

Why not?

[NotNova]

It's kind of mistifying to me why Skygazer who presumably made the kill would be so intent on lynching the JK target instead of playing the "no-kill" game, unless it's WIFOM.

That said it seems to me that the optimal play in any case is lynching Sky today if we don't see a doc CC, no matter if there was a no-kill or not. If Sky flips town then I think we can be fairly certain that UC is fakeclaiming scum in subsequent MYLO. I don't see a world where scum targets anyone but one of the claimed PRs last night, so Sky shouldn't be the NK target. Am I missing something here?

If Thor's reasoning about optimal night-kills is correct and there's no CC today, either Sky is scum or UC is scum and we're in a no-doc setup. Is there any reason for Tracker/Doc not to CC in this situation? I can't wrap my head around why they would, so someone please enlighten me if there really is a reason.

[Skygazer]

that tmi post was tmi because it assumed the jailkeeper claim was correct which wasn't known at the time

[Skygazer]

and still isn't known tbh

but it's such a bad fakeclaim to make as scum so i'm kinda believing that it's real

like at best if scum knows we're in the goon/goon column then a jailkeeper claim results in a counterclaim 2/3 times. If we're in any other column the claim results in a counterclaim every time. so at best a jailkeeper fake claim would have a 1/3 chance of working and that just doesn't seem optimal for scum to fakeclaim at all

this is the second time i've been quasi-guiltied by a jailkeeper as town but the first time there wasn't a claimed doctor.

[Reundo]

I really just can't see a world where scum rb'ing doc and killing JK could possibly be better than scum rb'ing JK and killing doc or just scum no-killing outright.

No killing doesn't really benefit scum wincon in this situation unless your argument is that netting a Star mislynch is super helpful to them and they're planning to keep no killing in order to allow town to keep lynching suspect slots that are Jailed. If scum wants to do that I'm, personally, quite content with their play - why do you see this as optimal for them?
The point of killing JKer over Doc is that the JKer can be confirmed as town, whereas the Doc cannot - therefore 100% they can't get a JKer mislynch, but they could theoretically get a Doc mislynch. Ergo, you kill confirmed town.
I suppose I could see an argument of playing the long game as "safer" in exchange for confirming the Doc to town, I don't agree with it being optimal, but I can see the argument.

I meant to say that scum no-killing wouldn't have much benefit -- I must've mixed up the wording on that statement. I can see the merit in scum wanting to prioritize killing confirmed town, but as it stands volxen had a 1/6 chance of blocking the kill directly, and if he even had two strong town reads that chance jumps to 1/4, and it seems like a significant enough risk where it wouldn't be wise to try to kill volxen. Sure, scum loses the ability to push for a ceejay mislynch if they kill him, but that also makes it impossible for volxen to get any useful results thanks to roleblocker, assuming ceejay isn't fake-claiming -- if ceejay gets lynched today and flips doctor then Sky almost certainly gets lynched tomorrow, and that's a terrible 1 for 1 that could've been easily avoided. But yeah, I didn't take into account that JK would be confirmed town whereas ceejay would not, so it actually would make some sense for scum to kill the JK over the doc.

Just the fact that I can't see scum not rb'ing JK if we're in A2 or scum just no-killing in general in any setup. I mean, it's always possible scum is acting not optimally, but it seems like a silly mistake to make if my reasoning is correct.

So let's take that down the road - your theory argument is that the JKer is scum?
Wouldn't that require there to be someone who could counterclaim the JKer?
Where is this person?

It isn't that the JKer is scum -- it's that since I couldn't figure out why scum wouldn't want to rb jailkeeper and kill doctor in a A2 setup, it's possible that we're actually in B2/C2 and that both Sky and ceejay are scum. I'm not as strong about that theory as I once one -- since it's plausible that scum would want to prioritize killing volxen over ceejay, then it's not so unrealistic that that's what actually happened. I still don't think a ceejay/Skygazer pair is impossible, but it mostly hinged on me thinking "there's no way that scum wouldn't want to roleblock volxen" but that theory has waned a bit.

"Very aggressively tossed out a vote"??? What, do you think all votes are aggressive or something?

No, I don't.
But you casting one while claiming confusion and a need to re-read/re-analyze seems strange.

I'd rather prioritize taking a stance than be ambiguous. Even if I were to do a 180 on sky, I'd still rather have it on record that at one point I did prefer to lynch sky than to indicate no leaning at all. I just prefer to try to make my thought process as open as possible.


It turns out killing volxen over ceejay wasn't as black-and-white as I initially suspected, which makes me feel a lot better about lynching sky. If we are in A2, then the possibility of scum no-killing when there are two claimed PRs out in the open seems like a pretty risky move with no apparent upsides outside of WIFOM, but as was mentioned before it's also possible that volxen could've jail-kept scum so even WIFOM isn't a great excuse. If there aren't any more PR claims, then volxen is confirmed town since JK/VT is an impossible setup and we'd be in either A2 or C2. If we are in C2 then that makes no-killing a bit more viable, but the potential upsides still don't seem to be worth the risk. It would be a bit weird for scum!sky to give herself no outs at all since she'd know she'd be the JK target once volxen claimed his save (unless she tried to kill volxen but somehow didn't roleblock ceejay, which doesn't make any sense at all), but then again the fact she was the one pushing the "lynch the JK target no matter what" angle the hardest and she just so happened to be the JK target as well is too coincidental for my tastes.

[Thor665]

If Thor's reasoning about optimal night-kills is correct and there's no CC today, either Sky is scum or UC is scum and we're in a no-doc setup.

It is possible for both Sky and UC to be town - all that would require is scum no killing.
Just because I have strong opinions of optimal scum play doesn't mean scum does them (just like town not doing proper town play all the time in my opinion).
The only thing we really "know" (and there's a reason even that is requiring town to play properly) is the JKer is town, assuredly.
Also, with the claims and the results, I support strongly the idea of a Star lynch because he's likely scum. If he flips roleblocker than we have two confirmed town, if he flips Goon we're still in a debate.

Is there any reason for Tracker/Doc not to CC in this situation? I can't wrap my head around why they would, so someone please enlighten me if there really is a reason.

None that I can think of.

and still isn't known tbh

It is, though. Basically without a doubt he's a JKer unless you see something I'm missing?

You're going to be lynched today barring really amazing town play or a new claim coming to light.
Do you have any final thoughts for us?
Who are your top scumspects?

It would be a bit weird for scum!sky to give herself no outs at all since she'd know she'd be the JK target once volxen claimed his save (unless she tried to kill volxen but somehow didn't roleblock ceejay, which doesn't make any sense at all), but then again the fact she was the one pushing the "lynch the JK target no matter what" angle the hardest and she just so happened to be the JK target as well is too coincidental for my tastes.

Theory situation;

Scum Sky is the roleblocker.
He targets the Doc.
His partner goes for the kill on the JKer.
No kill happens.
If I was Sky, I'd play the day about like they did - preparing to help lynch my buddy to look town.


Why do you find that scenario so unlikely and feel that Sky's play suggests town alignment?

@Ceejay

- regardless of Sky's lynch, your only job is to protect Volxen. If we come into tomorrow and you're claiming to have not protected him I'll take it as a scum claim from you. Feel free to present any argument as to why you should protect someone other than the confirmed town PR and I'll politely listen, tell you you're wrong, and insist on this plan again

@Volxen

- I'd like you to claim a target on the chance Stargazer flips Mafia Goon. If he flips town or Mafia Roleblocker you can target whomever you like, but if he flips Goon there is a chance you can die but your target can be confirmed as town. Feel free to change your mind as the day goes on - but whoever you posted last as who you'd protect in that situation needs to hold so town knows who their next confirmed town player is. Hope that makes sense to you, if not ask and I'll clarify (but name a target anyway, town is being oddly aggressive with voting right now)

[xwing]

it's SKYgazer, not STARgazer, though the mistype is understandable..
im still feeling apprehensive of ceejay..

i understand what reundo's saying regarding scum play is killing doc, as it's the same thing i brought up earlier..but i agree that sky lynch is a safer/better play for town..

im okay to vote for sky..what's the current vote count? my count is she's at L-1..can someone help verify please?

if sky flips RB/town, im going to vote to lynch ceej..
if sky flips goon, i dunno yet..depends on JK'd and results of the NK..

[xwing]

edit:
if sky flips goon/town, im eyeing to vote ceej as i dont believe his counterclaim yet..
if sky flips RB, i dunno who to vote yet..depends on results of the night (JK and NK)..

[Thor665]

Anyone who votes Sky before people get on board with the night action plan are either playing poorly or are scum.

[Skygazer]

VOTE: sky