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Micc
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Post Post #400  (ISO)  » Fri Dec 14, 2018 8:10 am

Votecount 2.03muh316 (3) - Child, Lamees, Irrelephant11
Lamees (2) - Jim Hawkins, muh316

Not Voting (2) - Dongempire, AbyssalLord

With 7 players alive it takes 4 votes to lynch.

The deadline for Day 2 is in (expired on 2018-12-18 17:50:00).
"To hide a tree, use a forest" - Ninja Boy Hideo

Micc
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Post Post #401  (ISO)  » Sat Dec 15, 2018 3:33 am

Prodding Dongempire.
"To hide a tree, use a forest" - Ninja Boy Hideo

Jim Hawkins
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Post Post #402  (ISO)  » Sat Dec 15, 2018 4:41 am

Looking forward to reading Dong's analysis. Sounds like he's getting ready to place the hammer vote on muh.

Lamees
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Post Post #403  (ISO)  » Sat Dec 15, 2018 7:34 am

Everyone wanted extra time why?

Dongempire
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Post Post #404  (ISO)  » Sat Dec 15, 2018 9:02 am

In post 327, muh316 wrote:If the claim is true, and we lynch OkX, we'll be down 2 PRs by D2 since Mafia is probably gonna want to kill Ceejay.

If the claim is true, then Ceejay Jailkeeps OkX, and Okx can get us a confirmed town or not-town on D2. That should help us narrow down possible scum suspects. Also, then we know we have a Mafia Rolecop/Goon combo which means we don't have a Mafia roleblocker to prevent Ceejay/Okx from acting.

Anyway, if anyone wants to counterclaim, please do so. If there is a counterclaim I'll hammer.




It's easy to ISO newer, less experienced and more active players. Often times, even with good intentions they slip up and reveal to the world their alignment. This is not one of those cases. So this analysis will pack less of a punch than the other ones. Instead of being a constant spiral towards an inevitable conclusion, i will untangle a series of remarks that hint at muh being scum. Get ready, this is the final showdown.

CASE FILE : MUH316
SUSPECT DATA: MAFIA GOON, LAST OF ITS KIND, ARMED AND DEADLY, SHOOT ON SIGHT

EXHIBIT A: SUSPICIOUS WAGONS

This mainly goes for Abyysal's wagon, as it is the one he liked to hop in and out of most of the time. This is the wagon he pushed for the majority of Day 1, yet it is the most lacking one too. Lets see here...
In post 81, muh316 wrote:
In post 69, Lamees wrote:Thoughts on abyssallords possible townslip?

Lamees, I want to know your answer to this question as well.

In conclusion, VOTE: AbyssalLord. I'm not buying the townslip. Most of his posts are questions and speculation on game theory. We haven't seen anything productive yet.


I disagree. Trying to learn how the game proceeds and how to catch scum, how to do anything and how to play it properly is incredibly towny. It doesnt matter that he hadnt said anything productive yet as he was trying to learn how to be productive by asking around. Shutting him down isnt a good idea.

In post 120, muh316 wrote:
In post 115, Child wrote:ok, but he IS a new player. you should know that, since you are supposed to help us understand the mechanics better,instead of pushing on a guy that has no idea what he is doing. his entire ISO has been NAI,i do agree content is needed but i dont think many have posted content in general, the most eventful thing that has happened so far is abyssallord's "townslip" , which i think he has talked about enough, explaining the thought process and all.
VOTE: muh316


I'm pretty skeptical when it comes to "noob" slip-ups like this. I've been in a game before where a scum player acted like a noob the entire game as a strategy. The town felt that he was a beginner and let his inactivity slide for far too long. If he's scum, I want to push him to a point where he could slip up. I'm seeing this noob behavior a lot from OKx and AbyssalLord both.

The reason why we don't have content in general is because there's no good activity. All I'm seeing is irrelephant + Lamees trying to form wagons on inactive players, OKx and AbysallLord coming in once a day to ask questions and Micc finding us replacements.

@OKx, it looks like you missed my question for you on post 81. Can you answer that for us?

OKX coming in once a day, yes. However, as far as abyssal was concerned, he was asking questions like rapid fire, often 5 posts at a time. Setting him up to be in the same category as okx who only posted one liners per day is objectively wrong.

About inactivity, refer to my above statement again. For the majority of the first 5 pages, abyssal was sticking out like mud. In any case, no one was stopping you from pushing him. There was no inactivity regarding abyssal.
In post 195, muh316 wrote:
In post 169, Child wrote:Muh, this goes out to you too, ohx is the one who has to vote, not me, as ive stated my opinions before. He has only done townreads, and that concerns me. A good position to place my vote in for now.


I think you misunderstood my post as insinuating that you are a noob but I was just pushing for everyone to vote so we can get to a D1 lynch.

Lamees' reactions to DongEmpire are genuine and come across to me as town so I think it's fine that the wagon has shifted off of Lamees.

It looks like we have a possible Abyssal or DongEmpire lynch. Since the deadline is approaching fast we should have a claim push at around 48 hours before deadline which should give us enough time if we need to shift off the wagon.

This is a running gag with muh. Once a wagon shifts off of anyone, its a good thing, even if it ended up not doing a lot of good, in this instance, lamees' wagon. I dont know what to make of his attitude towards wagons, but i just felt like it was worth mentioning.

In post 273, muh316 wrote:Abyssal is sort of showing that he's noobtown and I'm starting to feel like he just might be. That may change D2. Lamees has moved up to towny in my readlist and Ceejay is now closer to mafia.

This is important. His third next post, after he states this is:

In post 299, muh316 wrote:Dong's analysis on you showed that you were fishing for a claim from Lamees very early in the game. That's why I'm not 100% sure whether or not to believe the claim.

I don't know if we're on the right track now since both Abyssal and Ceejay are not looking as appealing for a lynch as they were before but I don't want to end this day with a no-lynch either since that's not favorable for us. I hope everyone's active and ready to vote in the next 15 hours. VOTE: Abyssal

Why go back to abyssal even though you believed he was newtown? Ending with a nolynch is better than lynching a townie, because in this solitary instance, you cant examine a wagon. It would have ended up being a rushed wagon, hence why we couldnt thoroughly investigate okx's wagon. It also peaks my curiosity that you didnt have any other scumread than ceejay and abyssal that you went back to abyssal the instant ceejay was outed as pr. It seems to me that you had tunnel vision, not a really good mentality if you were a town player. Fortunately, you're not.
I also dont like that you immediatly believed okx's claim, whereas for ceejay you thought that could be a lie.
This is enough of that. This isnt the meat of my argument, but it is needed to help build the foundation of my case. Time for Exhibit B
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EXHIBIT B: RELATIONSHIP WITH OKX
This is one that peaked my curiosity during my ISO'ing of muh. What i noticed was that from okx's perspective, muh was mentioned just once. This is the post:
In post 284, Okx wrote:
In post 283, muh316 wrote:
In post 282, Okx wrote:Micc whenever you posted you always said the deadline for day 1 is 1 day 0 hours 7 minutes????


I just realized his posts are automatically updated and the countdown timer is live. I was also confused about this which is why I thought the game is ending in a few hours. Turns out we still have 23 hours from now.

oh, I see. Countdown timer is cool, but confusing

As you can see, okx NEVER talked with muh, and just replied to him on an irrelevant topic. Lets see things from muh's perspective now:

In post 140, muh316 wrote:Personally, the reason why I didn't go after OKx is because Abyssal's townslip felt fake to me so I wanted to go after that. OKx is also acting similar but I think he might be getting replaced based on his inactivity (1 prod and another one soon) so I don't want to wagon a player that's getting replaced.

This is something he never does. Sure he goes after abyssal, but even after okx isnt replaced by someone else, he never tries to pressure him into a tight spot. All he does are soft pushes, 120, 81. Which causes me to believe that he has a ulterior motive in trying to get okx to talk more. While he has all of the reasons to suspect okx, he always has him on null. He practically doesnt respond to his questions, he is inactive, and he is compared to abyssal which is his biggest scumread. So then, everyone, why is okx getting the better treatment?

I have a theory, just a theory, that muh being the SE scum he was, was trying to get okx to be more active to get him townread, which he was planning through the daychat. This is why while the rest of the town was scumreading okx, he just had him on null. He didnt want to be associated with him in case he was lynched, yet he tried his best to make him get into the discussion further. And i also assume okx never adressed muh because they could already talk through the daychat given to them. This is also why he put okx into the same category as abyssal of inactive, even though abyssal was by far more active than okx ever was.
This post got too long and i was already prodded, so next post time. While i prepare that, feel free to discuss where i may be overreaching.
666: hold on, were not finished with you yet
666: you still need to die first
Singleplayer has no online content 0/10

Dongempire
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Post Post #405  (ISO)  » Sat Dec 15, 2018 10:59 am

EXHIBIT C: ISOLATED EVENTS
In post 163, muh316 wrote:
In post 152, Irrelephant11 wrote:I really really don't think Lamees is scum here


Are you sure you're not being pocketed? I would ask that you look through Lamees's ISO and tell us if there's anything towny in there to support your claim. I have a feeling you have a soft spot for Lamees from previous games and this is purely gut feeling. It would make sense if you were a cop/neapolitan saying this D2 after a night action, but D1 it makes no sense to me.

This really rubs me the wrong way. Not only is he throwing shade at lamees', but also discouraging irrel from doing townreading her too. This makes me believe all the more that muh has some agenda against lamees, which in turn makes me believe that lamees' is innocent. I assume this comes from lamees' pocketing from earlier, but sticking your own reads into someone elses and discouraging them, it doesnt seem like it fits a town agenda.

And this is about it. Muh doesnt have a lot of posts, and the few he has are not really anything i can analyze further. So the most i can get out of his iso is this. Do with that as you will.

I feel like this is the most we are going to get out of today, so i would like to hammer


Lets finish this game, i think i've warmed up enough
666: hold on, were not finished with you yet
666: you still need to die first
Singleplayer has no online content 0/10

Irrelephant11
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Post Post #406  (ISO)  » Sat Dec 15, 2018 11:31 am

In post 403, Lamees wrote:Everyone wanted extra time why?

I wanted it to make sure I could rule out child and dongempire, which I feel is pretty reasonable at this point.

Micc
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Post Post #407  (ISO)  » Sat Dec 15, 2018 8:15 pm

Prodding AbyssalLord, muh316 and Child.
"To hide a tree, use a forest" - Ninja Boy Hideo

AbyssalLord
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Post Post #408  (ISO)  » Sat Dec 15, 2018 8:22 pm

sorry for inactivity lads im here

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Post Post #409  (ISO)  » Sat Dec 15, 2018 8:35 pm

I have one quick question: how do you go about quoting sections of a long post (dong's)?

Dongempire
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Post Post #410  (ISO)  » Sat Dec 15, 2018 11:51 pm

I erase the other quotes, i use the preview first to see how it looks like, then i take the irrelevant parts and delete until the end quote mark [/quote]
Alternatively, you can keep the start and end quotes in hand if its one post you want to split, and add them before quoting any section. Then just copy paste whatever you want to quote inside it
666: hold on, were not finished with you yet
666: you still need to die first
Singleplayer has no online content 0/10

Child
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Post Post #411  (ISO)  » Sun Dec 16, 2018 5:34 am

Good read, im feeling very confident in lynching muh right now. All im waiting now for is a response.

Lamees
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Post Post #412  (ISO)  » Sun Dec 16, 2018 5:41 am

You already voted. It's dong and abyss that needs to vote.

muh316
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Post Post #413  (ISO)  » Sun Dec 16, 2018 11:27 am

In post 404, Dongempire wrote:Why go back to abyssal even though you believed he was newtown? Ending with a nolynch is better than lynching a townie, because in this solitary instance, you cant examine a wagon. It would have ended up being a rushed wagon, hence why we couldnt thoroughly investigate okx's wagon. It also peaks my curiosity that you didnt have any other scumread than ceejay and abyssal that you went back to abyssal the instant ceejay was outed as pr. It seems to me that you had tunnel vision, not a really good mentality if you were a town player. Fortunately, you're not.
I also dont like that you immediatly believed okx's claim, whereas for ceejay you thought that could be a lie.


The reason why I chose to stick with Abyssal is simply because of his supposed townslip early in the game which seemed scummy to me. In the beginning of the game Irrelephant and Lamees were forming wagons on inactive players which wasn't getting us anywhere. I felt that it would be best to pressure somebody that is actually active. I kept OKx on my radar throughout the game but I felt like he wasn't lynch worthy yet because of a possible replacement. I was leaning Abyssal more. As the day got closer to the end, I felt that the Abyssal wagon was sufficient and we should lynch.

As for lyching a townie, in the context of a deadline I would rather lynch a town player than no-lynch. It has been shown that lynching a town player is better because an odd number of players puts the odds in favor of town.

I immediately believed Okx's claim because we were a couple hours away from the deadline. There was no time for discussion at that point. It was either a counterclaim and lynch or no lynch in my mind.

In post 404, Dongempire wrote:As you can see, okx NEVER talked with muh, and just replied to him on an irrelevant topic. Lets see things from muh's perspective now:

Did Okx actually talk with anyone else besides maybe irrelephant? Since you're ISOing you're really tunneling down and ignoring the broader context.

In post 404, Dongempire wrote:I have a theory, just a theory, that muh being the SE scum he was, was trying to get okx to be more active to get him townread, which he was planning through the daychat. This is why while the rest of the town was scumreading okx, he just had him on null. He didnt want to be associated with him in case he was lynched, yet he tried his best to make him get into the discussion further. And i also assume okx never adressed muh because they could already talk through the daychat given to them. This is also why he put okx into the same category as abyssal of inactive, even though abyssal was by far more active than okx ever was.


If I was doing this through a daychat why was I directly asking him questions here? If I was scum, I could have literally gone over to the daychat and coached Okx on what to say. Again, I felt that he wasn't making any good reads and seemed very confused so I wanted him to start getting active. Irrelephant had the same behavior with all of our noob players in the first few pages.

This raises an interesting point though which makes me think Jim might be the scum partner. If I was scum partners with Okx, it would have been in my best interest to coach him and keep pushing him in the daychat. That sort of behavior is not apparent from Okx at all. He seems to be acting independently which goes along with my scumJim theory. Jim was also inactive which meant he didn't have time to coach his scum partner Okx.

In post 405, Dongempire wrote:This really rubs me the wrong way. Not only is he throwing shade at lamees', but also discouraging irrel from doing townreading her too. This makes me believe all the more that muh has some agenda against lamees, which in turn makes me believe that lamees' is innocent. I assume this comes from lamees' pocketing from earlier, but sticking your own reads into someone elses and discouraging them, it doesnt seem like it fits a town agenda.


Right, because Irrelephant was blindly townreading Lamees early in the game. I strongly felt that Irrelephant might have held onto bias from their previous interactions in other games. If I'm asking you to re-evaluate your town reads how is that scummy?

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Post Post #414  (ISO)  » Sun Dec 16, 2018 3:16 pm

In post 413, muh316 wrote:As for lyching a townie, in the context of a deadline I would rather lynch a town player than no-lynch. It has been shown that lynching a town player is better because an odd number of players puts the odds in favor of town.
Yes, I believe we all agree that on D1 it is in the best interest of the town to lynch.

In post 413, muh316 wrote:I immediately believed Okx's claim because we were a couple hours away from the deadline. There was no time for discussion at that point. It was either a counterclaim and lynch or no lynch in my mind.
Wait...what? This almost seems to refute what you just said. How did "no lynch" suddenly become a viable option? I had stated an intent to hammer Okx in post 321:
In post 321, Jim Hawkins wrote:I know the deadline is only a few hours away. I am stating my intent to hammer Okx at the 30 min mark before deadline.
but your "CC or no vote" happens later in post 327:
In post 327, muh316 wrote:Anyway, if anyone wants to counterclaim, please do so. If there is a counterclaim I'll hammer.
How does this add up? Even if there had been no CC, I still would have voted to avoid a no-lynch.

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Post Post #415  (ISO)  » Sun Dec 16, 2018 5:45 pm

In post 414, Jim Hawkins wrote:Wait...what? This almost seems to refute what you just said. How did "no lynch" suddenly become a viable option? I had stated an intent to hammer Okx in post 321:


So here's my thinking when it comes to no lynch. I would rather lynch a vanilla town player than no lynch. In the case of a PR I would rather go for the no-lynch option. In the case of a tracker, that is a very valuable role that I didn't want to risk losing.

In post 414, Jim Hawkins wrote:How does this add up? Even if there had been no CC, I still would have voted to avoid a no-lynch.


There was no guarantee you were going to vote and I didn't trust that you actually would. In the case that you are scum, you could have easily just not voted and end the day with a no-lynch.

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Post Post #416  (ISO)  » Sun Dec 16, 2018 9:31 pm

Muh do you think scum is ever within {child, dongempire}? If so, make he case. If not, you’re our first lynch and we’ll hit scum by process of elimination

Dongempire
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Post Post #417  (ISO)  » Mon Dec 17, 2018 3:47 am

I've heard enough. If muh makes a decisive case within 10 hours of this post then i'll reconsider. Otherwise im hammering. This game is very inactive, and theres no need to wait 2 more days for 10 or so posts. If there is any objections, i'll hear them out
666: hold on, were not finished with you yet
666: you still need to die first
Singleplayer has no online content 0/10

Lamees
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Post Post #418  (ISO)  » Mon Dec 17, 2018 10:48 am

Lol omg. Can someone hammer. Like 1 day left.

Irrelephant11
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Post Post #419  (ISO)  » Mon Dec 17, 2018 10:51 am

Jim/abyssal/dong please vote muh

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Post Post #420  (ISO)  » Mon Dec 17, 2018 12:08 pm

VOTE: muh316
goodnight sweet prince
666: hold on, were not finished with you yet
666: you still need to die first
Singleplayer has no online content 0/10

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Post Post #421  (ISO)  » Mon Dec 17, 2018 1:23 pm

Thank you, Dong. I didn't want to steal your thunder, but I was getting ready to hammer muh myself.

Also,
In post 409, AbyssalLord wrote:I have one quick question: how do you go about quoting sections of a long post (dong's)?
I was expecting to see a little bit more from Abyssal, based on this post....

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Post Post #422  (ISO)  » Mon Dec 17, 2018 1:42 pm

GG

Dongempire
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Post Post #423  (ISO)  » Mon Dec 17, 2018 2:16 pm

yeah gg
666: hold on, were not finished with you yet
666: you still need to die first
Singleplayer has no online content 0/10

Lamees
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Post Post #424  (ISO)  » Mon Dec 17, 2018 2:20 pm

Gg muh. Now we wait for the flip.

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