Newbie 1910: Aerial Photography [Game Over!]

JunkoChan
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Post Post #700  (ISO)  » Sat Jan 12, 2019 10:06 am

I'm sick, I can't stand too much time watching the screen so typos are posible

@GW what's the point of 699? Junk is pretty muchos confirmed unless idk yyota/sever7/whatshisface comes to counterclaim
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JunkoChan
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Post Post #701  (ISO)  » Sat Jan 12, 2019 10:07 am

Pretty much*
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YellowSnow
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Post Post #702  (ISO)  » Sat Jan 12, 2019 3:24 pm

I noticed that cat was playing in other games but not this one. That leads me to think their absence might be role related and not an absence from the site in general.

northsidegal
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Post Post #703  (ISO)  » Sat Jan 12, 2019 4:42 pm

Prodding vesper7.

JunkoChan
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Post Post #704  (ISO)  » Sat Jan 12, 2019 5:46 pm

In post 703, northsidegal wrote:Prodding vesper7.


New récord.
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GrandWazoo
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Post Post #705  (ISO)  » Sun Jan 13, 2019 12:17 am

@Junko (and everyone else): I meant to hit "save draft" but apparently hit "submit" instead. I was planning to expand on why Junk is not confirmed as we are assuming.

For example, say Junk is one of two mafia goons, as in column C. To claim Doc he does not have the 44.4% chance (4 out of 9) of being CC'd, but just a 16.7% chance (1 in 6). Only the actual Doc could CC. The same holds true if one of the scum is mafia rolecop (column B). Note that there is a Cop (i.e. the worst, the only 100% definite role) in all 3 columns, but only in column A are there 2 possible Docs. That means if Junk were to FC Doc, the one column he would not pick from is A - the one with the mafia roleblocker. Yet column A is the one Junk wants us to think we're in, since he claims he was roleblocked. In short, it's the highest-percentage FC available to Junk, which is why I suspect he calculated it well ahead of having to claim.

But think about the likelihood of a) one scum targeting TW for the NK; b) town!Junk targeting TW for protection; and c) the other scum roleblocking town!Junk. This highly improbable scenario is exactly what he wants us to believe! Compare that to the likelihood of scum!Junk successfully FC (83.3%). And even if Junk is CC'd by the actual Doc, he probably thinks he can bury that claim in verbiage and hostility, as he has done to town all game.

TL;DR

Image

VOTE: Junk

YellowSnow
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Post Post #706  (ISO)  » Sun Jan 13, 2019 12:54 am

This looks like a Gambit to Lynch the doc.

VOTE: grand wazoo

YellowSnow
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Post Post #707  (ISO)  » Sun Jan 13, 2019 1:00 am

Wouldn't vanilla be the highest percentage fake claim?

JunkoChan
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Post Post #708  (ISO)  » Sun Jan 13, 2019 7:40 am

In post 705, GrandWazoo wrote:@Junko (and everyone else): I meant to hit "save draft" but apparently hit "submit" instead. I was planning to expand on why Junk is not confirmed as we are assuming.

For example, say Junk is one of two mafia goons, as in column C. To claim Doc he does not have the 44.4% chance (4 out of 9) of being CC'd, but just a 16.7% chance (1 in 6). Only the actual Doc could CC. The same holds true if one of the scum is mafia rolecop (column B). Note that there is a Cop (i.e. the worst, the only 100% definite role) in all 3 columns, but only in column A are there 2 possible Docs. That means if Junk were to FC Doc, the one column he would not pick from is A - the one with the mafia roleblocker. Yet column A is the one Junk wants us to think we're in, since he claims he was roleblocked. In short, it's the highest-percentage FC available to Junk, which is why I suspect he calculated it well ahead of having to claim.

But think about the likelihood of a) one scum targeting TW for the NK; b) town!Junk targeting TW for protection; and c) the other scum roleblocking town!Junk. This highly improbable scenario is exactly what he wants us to believe! Compare that to the likelihood of scum!Junk successfully FC (83.3%). And even if Junk is CC'd by the actual Doc, he probably thinks he can bury that claim in verbiage and hostility, as he has done to town all game.

TL;DR

Image

VOTE: Junk


Ooooh I get it now, if he is a goon there won't be a cc ever cuz the other "PR" is townie I haven't tought of that possibility
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JunkoChan
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Post Post #709  (ISO)  » Sun Jan 13, 2019 7:54 am

but even then, Junk claimed doc before the cop flip, from scum!Junk point of view in the situation you are presenting he would have a 33% chance to hit composition 3C, you could argue that in his position L-1 a gamble would be better than nothing tho, but still hard to pull of and easier to do by claiming vanilla townie, but vanilla townie is a misslynchable role.

As much as I would like to believe that Junk is scum I don't think he is.
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Junk
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Post Post #710  (ISO)  » Sun Jan 13, 2019 8:01 am

nobody is ccing me you buffoon xD

Junk
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Post Post #711  (ISO)  » Sun Jan 13, 2019 8:05 am

all of these talks about percentages about claims, setups, ccs

its so cringey man

nobody is CCing me

GW if ur town, ur a monkey XD

Junk
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Post Post #712  (ISO)  » Sun Jan 13, 2019 8:21 am

waaait wait wait

i get it now

if we're playing in setup C-1

there is only town cop, and no other town or scum power roles

so i can be scum if we're playing in setup C-1

apologies, i didnt rly read all of that

okay then thats valid i guess

still, ur just trying to be a hero by giong against the consensus

i havent been scummy, you WANT me to be scum, so u can be a hero, GW

Junk
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Post Post #713  (ISO)  » Sun Jan 13, 2019 8:32 am

if GW is scum, he probably wont kill me in the night, to try to mislynch me

Junk
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Post Post #714  (ISO)  » Sun Jan 13, 2019 8:32 am

especially if he's the roleblocker

if yellowsnow flips roleblocker, good luck leaving me alive if ur scum, GW, buddy

Junk
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Post Post #715  (ISO)  » Sun Jan 13, 2019 8:41 am

i dont tihnk scum!GW goes out ofh is way to tinfoil me liek that if yellowsnow is town. he'd probably just chill

the only way GW is scum if he's with yellowsnow, and he's desperate

JunkoChan
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Post Post #716  (ISO)  » Sun Jan 13, 2019 8:48 am

This is some next level wifom right here
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Junk
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Post Post #717  (ISO)  » Sun Jan 13, 2019 9:01 am

yea if yellowsnow is goon, and GW is the mafia roleblocker, roleblocking me every night and not killing me while trying to mislynch me is perfectly valid tactic for him

JunkoChan
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Post Post #718  (ISO)  » Sun Jan 13, 2019 9:42 am

But Junk-baka-kun YellowSnow is voting GW not you, so this is either a coordinated act or YellowSnow and Gw aren't a team
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Junk
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Post Post #719  (ISO)  » Sun Jan 13, 2019 9:44 am

Junk-chan-kawaii-desu

There is this thing called distancing

Where two scum buddies want to fool the town

That they aren't scum buddies

By doing stuff that, for example, baka-chans like you would read as not mafia/mafia, such as, for example, voting each other

JunkoChan
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Post Post #720  (ISO)  » Sun Jan 13, 2019 9:53 am

so in this situation Yellowsnow and GW are never a mafia team, if GW is going all in for a wifom like that, Junk and GW are never a mafia team

this leaves us with GuiltyLion, sever7/Yyota/whathisface,brassherald

I'm towreading Junk and brass atm

so possible mafia teams are:

YellowSnow/GuiltyLion
YellowSnow/whathisface
Grandwazoo/GuiltyLion
GrandWazoo/whathisface

Which of these teams is more likely to be the right one is what we are looking at right now

p-edit so scum!yellowsnow is sacrificing Grandwazoo while being on the spotlight himself? to get town credit? MAYBE but if we keep going like this I'm get drunk with all this wine
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JunkoChan
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Post Post #721  (ISO)  » Sun Jan 13, 2019 10:00 am

I refuse to believe that Yellowsnow and Grandwazoo are a mafia team, they are in too good of a spot to come up with this lines of play, unless they are that bad
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JunkoChan
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Post Post #722  (ISO)  » Sun Jan 13, 2019 10:01 am

with spot I mean cop dead, doctor outed and both mafia still alive
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Junk
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Post Post #723  (ISO)  » Sun Jan 13, 2019 10:31 am

In post 720, JunkoChan wrote:p-edit so scum!yellowsnow is sacrificing Grandwazoo while being on the spotlight himself? to get town credit? MAYBE but if we keep going like this I'm get drunk with all this wine


Girl

YellowSnow is 100% the lynch today

His vote really doesn't matter

Nobody will follow him

He's not "sacrificing" GrandWazoo...

Maybe GW could be town after all. But not because of scum!YellowSnow voting him

GrandWazoo
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Post Post #724  (ISO)  » Sun Jan 13, 2019 11:49 am

In post 709, JunkoChan wrote:but even then, Junk claimed doc before the cop flip, from scum!Junk point of view in the situation you are presenting he would have a 33% chance to hit composition 3C, you could argue that in his position L-1 a gamble would be better than nothing tho, but still hard to pull of and easier to do by claiming vanilla townie, but vanilla townie is a misslynchable role.

As much as I would like to believe that Junk is scum I don't think he is.
Just ask yourself which is more likely: the sequence of events that Junk wants us to believe, or the scenario I described? The first is highly unlikely. The second is not only far more likely, but the optimal play for cornered scum.

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