Post #4
(ISO)
» Mon Dec 24, 2018 1:50 pm
If town are told whether they connected or not, there's a 67% EV strategy: each player targets the next player on the playerlist D1, leading to a 33% chance of a scum autowin (which happens if the scum are not adjacent in the playerlist), but if scum don't win, come day 2 both townies know for certain who the other townie is (either because they connected or by elimination if they didn't), making winning trivial.
If town aren't told about the success rate of their connections, I can't see a strategy above 33% EV, although there are several different strategies which all hit 33%. (The simplest is likely pair-targetting N1, i.e. the top two players on the playerlist target each other, so do the bottom two players. After doing this, D2 is irrelevant; you either win instantly or lose instantly.)
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