[REVIEW] Open Setup Reviews

This forum is for discussion of individual Open Setups, including theoretical balance.
Gypyx
Mafia Scum
 
User avatar
Joined: March 25, 2020
Location: Pain.
Pronoun: He

Post Post #1125  (ISO)  » Tue Mar 30, 2021 2:23 pm

mafia getting exed first sounds really harsh
bottom text

Isis
Best in Class
 
User avatar
Joined: April 06, 2020
Pronoun: She

Post Post #1126  (ISO)  » Tue Mar 30, 2021 2:47 pm

Maybe vengecop only for townies?
Can you not walk straight?

Gypyx
Mafia Scum
 
User avatar
Joined: March 25, 2020
Location: Pain.
Pronoun: He

Post Post #1127  (ISO)  » Tue Mar 30, 2021 2:50 pm

that seems good to me

(not confident, would like other people's opinion)
bottom text

Sirius9121
Mafia Scum
 
User avatar
Joined: May 31, 2020
Location: Minecraft (Timezone: GMT+8)
Pronoun: He

Post Post #1128  (ISO)  » Tue Mar 30, 2021 7:32 pm

d1 - maf lim (1/3) :

20% maf winrate

d1 - town lim (2/3):

2 - 3
Chance of vengetown: 60%
2 - (2 + 1)
50 (1 - 3) - (25% maf win) / 50 (ins, maf win)

Chance of vengescum: 40%
1 - (3)
25% maf win

total:
maf winrate = (1/3*20+2/3*60*125/2/100+2/3*40*25/100)% = 38.33%
town winrate = (1/3*80+2/3*60*75/2/100+2/3*40*75/100)% = 61.67%

overly high town wr
If you ask Rick Astley for his copy of the movie 'Up', he can not give it to you as he will never give you up.
However, by refusing to do so, he lets you down.
Thus creating the Astley Paradox.
*glares at Sirius*Well played my friend, well played. - Aristophanes

Jingle
Ring a Bell?
 
User avatar
Joined: July 18, 2013
Location: Texas
Pronoun: He

Post Post #1129  (ISO)  » Wed Mar 31, 2021 12:08 am

Also, town tends to overperform in nightless setups.

I’d be interested to see the math if the first town is a vengecop and the first scum is a vengekill. Might make it scumsided enough. Not gonna do the math while mobile though.
Show

Sirius9121
Mafia Scum
 
User avatar
Joined: May 31, 2020
Location: Minecraft (Timezone: GMT+8)
Pronoun: He

Post Post #1130  (ISO)  » Wed Mar 31, 2021 5:50 am

Spoiler: 1st elim cop/kill
d1 - maf lim (1/3)

1 - 3
25% maf wr

d1 - town lim (2/3)

Chance of vengetown: 60%
2 - (2 + 1)
50 (1 - 3) - (25% maf win) / 50 (ins, maf win)

Chance of vengescum: 40%
1 - (3)
25% maf win

total:
maf winrate = (1/3*25+2/3*60*125/2/100+2/3*40*25/100)% = 40%
town winrate = (1/3*75+2/3*60*75/2/100+2/3*40*75/100)% = 60%
If you ask Rick Astley for his copy of the movie 'Up', he can not give it to you as he will never give you up.
However, by refusing to do so, he lets you down.
Thus creating the Astley Paradox.
*glares at Sirius*Well played my friend, well played. - Aristophanes

Isis
Best in Class
 
User avatar
Joined: April 06, 2020
Pronoun: She

Post Post #1131  (ISO)  » Wed Mar 31, 2021 2:55 pm

Is townplay onsite strong enough yet to just run 4:2 nightless? Lol.

I want there to be a good 6p setup with no flagbearer.
Can you not walk straight?

MURDERCAT
Survivor
 
User avatar
Joined: March 18, 2016
Location: Chicago
Pronoun: He

Post Post #1132  (ISO)  » Wed Mar 31, 2021 3:18 pm

4:2 nightless with town vengecop and a godfather?
Trying to read me? Check my meta. (19-14-2) --- GTKAMURDERCAT
Taking a break from new games for the next 45 days, 22 hours, 37 minutes

Gypyx
Mafia Scum
 
User avatar
Joined: March 25, 2020
Location: Pain.
Pronoun: He

Post Post #1133  (ISO)  » Wed Mar 31, 2021 3:50 pm

4:2 nightless with an ic that dies at 4 players left maybe?
bottom text

Jingle
Ring a Bell?
 
User avatar
Joined: July 18, 2013
Location: Texas
Pronoun: He

Post Post #1134  (ISO)  » Thu Apr 01, 2021 1:48 pm

In post 1131, Isis wrote:Is townplay onsite strong enough yet to just run 4:2 nightless? Lol.


Honestly? It might be. 6v2 is perfect EV, and towns do tend to do better than site meta in nightless games. I'd probably be more willing to play in a 4:2.
Show

MURDERCAT
Survivor
 
User avatar
Joined: March 18, 2016
Location: Chicago
Pronoun: He

Post Post #1135  (ISO)  » Thu Apr 01, 2021 1:52 pm

Town only gets 1 miselim though, and then you are forced to guess right. I don't think the "town does well in nightless" applies as you are getting so little info in comparison to a longer nightless game.
Trying to read me? Check my meta. (19-14-2) --- GTKAMURDERCAT
Taking a break from new games for the next 45 days, 22 hours, 37 minutes

PookyTheMagicalBear
Pooky got your back
 
User avatar
Joined: August 17, 2003

Post Post #1136  (ISO)  » Thu Apr 01, 2021 2:11 pm

I think 2:5 Nightless with 2 Vengeful Mafia Goons would be fun

Gypyx
Mafia Scum
 
User avatar
Joined: March 25, 2020
Location: Pain.
Pronoun: He

Post Post #1137  (ISO)  » Thu Apr 01, 2021 2:23 pm

2:4 nightless, scum wins at two town left, if all executions are town, the last executed player may try to guess the scumteam for the win

random idea, how would it be?
bottom text

Jingle
Ring a Bell?
 
User avatar
Joined: July 18, 2013
Location: Texas
Pronoun: He

Post Post #1138  (ISO)  » Thu Apr 01, 2021 5:53 pm

In post 1135, MURDERCAT wrote:Town only gets 1 miselim though, and then you are forced to guess right. I don't think the "town does well in nightless" applies as you are getting so little info in comparison to a longer nightless game.


That only applies to the case when scum get a perfect win (40% of games, tbf, but not all of the scum wins). If scum is ever eliminated, town nets another miselim.

EV on a vanilla 2:4 nightless is 67% scum win, which is undoubtedly high, but the lack of ability for scum to kill off particularly dangerous town voices is a large portion of the conventional wisdom on nightless setups being townsided.

I'm not saying it's a perfectly balanced game, but I would definitely be more interested in seeing it than a 2:6.

Gypyx wrote:2:4 nightless, scum wins at two town left, if all executions are town, the last executed player may try to guess the scumteam for the win

random idea, how would it be?


Only changes the above percentages in the case of a scum sweep, mathematically a hail mary guess and an elimination are identical if there's only one scum remaining. The new EV is 56.6% swumwin. I would wager that being able to just elim the strongest scumhunter on the first game-loseable elim would further skew results towards townwins based on subjective speculation, but it's within the realm of testable for sure.

PEdit: didn't realize the guess wouldn't happen if a scum elim had happened. It's actually 70% scumwin as you suggested it.
Show

Jingle
Ring a Bell?
 
User avatar
Joined: July 18, 2013
Location: Texas
Pronoun: He

Post Post #1139  (ISO)  » Thu Apr 01, 2021 6:02 pm

In post 1136, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:I think 2:5 Nightless with 2 Vengeful Mafia Goons would be fun


Mathematically identical to 2:4 nightless with less of a townsiding bias introduced by the inability to kill. Probably better at 2:6, but you'd have to run the setup a few times to be sure. Doesn't seem like a bad setup to try a few times either way though.
Show

Isis
Best in Class
 
User avatar
Joined: April 06, 2020
Pronoun: She

Post Post #1140  (ISO)  » Fri Apr 02, 2021 1:44 am

I swear I actually would have just run 2:4 nightless to see what would happen if I didn't get hit by closed setup inspiration X_X
Can you not walk straight?

lendunistus
Goon
 
User avatar
Joined: September 20, 2020
Pronoun: He

Post Post #1141  (ISO)  » Thu Apr 08, 2021 6:31 am

In post 1116, lendunistus wrote:
Aliensitter Needed!

13 Players:
1x Town Lover Babysitter - https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Babysitter; can't self-target
1x Town Lover Alien - https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?ti ... (role) protects from kills, can't self-target
1x Town Macho Psychologist - https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Psychologist
7x Vanilla Townie
1x Mafia Cowardly Encryptor - https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Encryptor
1x Mafia Motion Detector - https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?ti ... n_Detector
1x Mafia 2-shot Roleblocker - https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Roleblocker

Lover - If a Lover dies by any means, their partner also dies instantly (this cannot be stopped). Lovers know each other's identity and have a PT, where they may talk at night.

Mafia daytalk is dependent on the survival of the Encryptor.

Cowardly - Unable to carry out the nightkill until they are the only mafia alive (which also means that Psychologist will yield a "not able to kill" result on them until that happens).

Macho - Any protective action targeted at this player (including abduction) will automatically fail.

Psychologist will yield a "can kill" result on the Babysitter.

If the Alien dies, the Babysitter's death will not trigger the death kill on their target.

Daystart. Mafia win upon parity with the town.

Mafia ARE NOT multitasking.


tweaked according to Jingle’s and BBMolla’s suggestions

few questions:

1. is it fine from a balance perspective to have both a false negative AND a false positive here for psych in terms of alignment?
2. is it customary on mafiascum to tell PRs that their action failed when they target a macho player?

abductions on psych would fail outright, not just go through without the protection

bringing this back to ask a question: is it fine for alien and babysitter to be able to target the same person consecutively here?

also bumping because of some clarifications that weren't included originally (mafia cannot multitask, alien and babysitter can't self-target)

also also would just like to get this double checked so I know it's playable

Jingle
Ring a Bell?
 
User avatar
Joined: July 18, 2013
Location: Texas
Pronoun: He

Post Post #1142  (ISO)  » Thu Apr 08, 2021 10:18 am

Yes. Only one half of the masonry can be fully protected so it's a WIFOM game.

Definitely looks playable, although it might benefit from tweaks after being run once.
Show

lendunistus
Goon
 
User avatar
Joined: September 20, 2020
Pronoun: He

Post Post #1143  (ISO)  » Thu Apr 08, 2021 12:29 pm

In post 1142, Jingle wrote:Yes. Only one half of the masonry can be fully protected so it's a WIFOM game.

Definitely looks playable, although it might benefit from tweaks after being run once.

yeah, the WIFOM is one of the aspects that came into mind
it inherently comes included with the pairing and since it's in the queue, I can't edit the roles too much right now since it'd kind of be a bait and switch

(the purple-named ducky already pre-inned btw so that's cool)

Jingle
Ring a Bell?
 
User avatar
Joined: July 18, 2013
Location: Texas
Pronoun: He

Post Post #1144  (ISO)  » Thu Apr 08, 2021 1:52 pm

I mean... you kinda have to run it in order to do tweaks after running it. I was telling you it looks fine as is.
Show

Previous
[ + ]

Return to Open Setup Discussion