[SETUP] Least Sus

[Jingle]

I think as a large it’s an undesirable setup due to inevitable player attrition. 10:3 is probably close to runnable as 11:2 is a scumsided by ev and observation mountainous format and with two scum alive you’re functionally guaranteed a one in each group split. (A pool being least suspicious means it’s all town if there are fewer remaining scum than groups and thus you can’t allow a large least suspicious group as scum. Similarly, one scum remaining basically means scum loses, because scum can’t prevent cop checks on a minimum of four players and four conftown is a town win if they can continue generating conftown at any rate.)

[Jingle]

Even with all that I don't think 11:4 is justified. 11:4 mountainous in practice would probably have a town wincon of like 4%, it takes quite a lot to balance it, and if town is flipping people in the least sus group then they are playing super risky and the reward isn't even

that

good.

Scum also have the option of confirming 2 people as town and just leaving them alive for a while, to ensure that the groups give no further info, if they want.

I think this actually optimal play for scum, with a slight adjustment. Conftown 2 players, then kill and replace one each night. Makes for a game with 2 conftown every day except Lylo, where there’s WIFOM if scum are still using the same strategy for lylo or not

I somehow missed the # of groups decreasing with scum elims, but I don't know that this is optimal play. There's definitely something to be said for picking strange group comps of roughly even sizes, because 10:3 mountainous is VERY scumsided. (80% scum EV) and that's basically what this is if you don't see two scum flips over the course of the game or flip the entirety of a group. It's probably ~viable given a townsided meta and the potential for useful information, but I think the mechanic works better as a supplementary mechanic to a non open than as a setup by itself.

[Jingle]

Yeah, that's kinda along the same lines as what I'm saying. You're starting with a very scumleaning setup and there's probably going to be late game townsiding information, so I think 10-3 is right, but probably not quite enough to be truly balanced. If I thought there was a likely chance of no town info from the groups it'd be a clear 11-2 setup (which, incidentally, I don't think the mechanic is super interesting without at least three scum.)

I just happen to also think the setup lends itself as a mechanic in a low power closed game more than a true open, because near mountainous setups where the information gain is backloaded tend to be frustrating for a large portion of the early game. (See FOTM a few years ago where a small arsonist team dominated town because town just didn't have anything happening to keep them invested.)

I think increasing game size is just going to make the mountainous drag more pronounced and thus not a good solution, but 10-3 seems playable at the very least, if still a little bit scumsided. I don't think that going the 2 conftown route is an objective optimal strategy (tbc, this is a good thing) because going three groups of the same size and putting 2-1-0 or 1-1-1 have potential benefits based on the strengths of the teams, making it a more strategically interesting game.

If you wanted to do something closed using this, I'd lean towards prs that are thematic to this setup: "You can't be killed by someone not in your group." or "Target a player: You will instead be in that player's group during the next day phase." as opposed to traditional roles like cop or doc.