If there was a situation where there was a 50/50 chance of a town win from random lynches in a pure townie/scum situation, then if you assume good play on the part of both teams, I would expect the scum to actually win more then 50% of the time, because they have the added advantage of knowing who is on their team. The scum have the option of either intentionally selling out each other to appear more townlike, or they could try to play in such a way as to make it less likely then random that their scum partners would get lynched while being subtle about it. Either one has it's risks and benifits, but I would think thatKelly Chen wrote:"Playing blind" means not reading the role PM. If you're able to read your role PM and "ignore" it, be my guest. I'm not sure what that even means, but I'm sure it's not a new strategy.
If scum have strategies that make vote analysis obsolete, I wonder what you think the role of a vanilla townie is supposed to be in a game of mafia. If any scum worth their mettle can blend into the crowd, you don't have a day game beyond voting with a claimed cop.
This might be somewhat balanced out by things like "scum tells" and slight psycological differences in behavor and thought between the scum and the town that smart townies can pick up on, but even so, if it was a game where random lynches would give the scum a 50/50 chances of winning, I would think that with equally skilled players on both teams, the scum would win more then half of all games.