In post 3980, Empking wrote:Pressure Mafia
Nightless
3 Mafia (White Flag)
2 Innocent Childs
2 Vanilla Townies
Seems very townsided. The town needs 2 correct lynches (out of 5 targets, 3 of which are scum) to win; the scum need to force 2 mislynches to win, and only have 2 VTs to land them on. If the lynches are done purely randomly, it's equivalent to considering 3 out of the 5 unconfirmed players to be picked at random and lynched, and out of the 10 ways to do that, 3 lead to scum win (VT, VT, Goon * 3), 7 lead to town win (Goon, Goon, Goon *1; Goon, Goon, VT * 6), so it's 70% town win even without scumhunting. Arguably having a scumteam that strong would mean that the winrate would be less than 70% in practice, but I'm not sure, especially with two confirmed townies.
EDIT: the EV isn't 50% like you say, because nobody ever random-lynches an Innocent Child, so that should be factored out of the calculations.
RE-EDIT: Oh right, I missed that 3 scum vs. 3 townies doesn't lead to random-lynches either, but rather to a scum win, so the above calcs are wrong because of the day 1 lylo. I don't really like the concept of a day 1 lylo...