- 7 Vanilla Townies
- 2 Mafia Goons (with a compulsive factional nightkill)
- If scum is lynched on Day 3, town automatically win. Otherwise, factions win or lose as normal.
EV is calculated as follows:
- There's a 2/9*1/7 = 2/63 chance of lynching scum D1 and D2, town win.
- There's a 7/9*5/7 = 35/63 chance of lynching town D1 and D2. You have a 40% chance of triggering the instant win, and a 60% chance of mislynching and losing.
- The remaining 26/63, there's a 4:1 situation going into D3, which has a (1/5 + 4/5 * 1/3) = 7/15 chance of a town win.
Strategy here is fairly interesting, given that town may want to lynch a less likely scum candidate D2 (or even D1) in order to save a likely scumflip for their "desperation day" on D3, at the cost of scum getting a nightkill which they can use to influence how easily that player gets lynched (or spout WIFOM everywhere). It also makes bussing more viable early and less viable late than is usual in a 9p; I'm not sure whether people consider that a good thing or not.
Thanks to xyzzy, whose setups got me thinking along these lines.