[EV] 8p Multiball

This forum is for discussion of individual Open Setups, including theoretical balance.
shos
Survivor
 
User avatar
Joined: November 28, 2011
Pronoun: He

Post Post #0  (ISO)  » Sat Jul 30, 2016 2:26 pm

As part of my attempt to create the tiniest multiball possible, a closed 7p mechanism as below was successfully run, and an open 7p is being run right now.

I have come to a conclusion that 8p is in fact the best balance.[an extra townie added]

The setup is this:
8pMultiballMafia A Goon
Mafia A 1-shot Roleblocker

Mafia B Goon
Mafia B 1-shot Roleblocker

1-shot BP townie
1-shot BP townie
1-shot BP townie
1-shot BP townie
In post 836, Lucky2u said:
Rule # 5h05: players should not attempt to use or manipulate the mod for any purpose.

BBmolla
Survivor
 
User avatar
Joined: May 29, 2011
Pronoun: He

Post Post #1  (ISO)  » Sat Jul 30, 2016 7:34 pm

Scumsided to shit. Isn't technically mafia (Town don't have majority day 1) and being town in this setup would just suck as a whole.

If you want 2:2 you need it to be 5:2:2 at the very least. 1:2:4 is doable though.

shos
Survivor
 
User avatar
Joined: November 28, 2011
Pronoun: He

Post Post #2  (ISO)  » Sun Jul 31, 2016 4:54 am

With 8p I am not sure it is scumsided at all. What %s, btw? Because scum have to deal with 4 bulletproofs and 2 enemy scums, which doesnt seem much over 33%
In post 836, Lucky2u said:
Rule # 5h05: players should not attempt to use or manipulate the mod for any purpose.

Ircher
Jack of All Trades
 
User avatar
Joined: November 09, 2015
Pronoun: He

Post Post #3  (ISO)  » Sun Jul 31, 2016 7:51 pm

The problem is town has veto power, but otherwise have practically lost from the start.

Town does not control a majority of votes, so town's best option D1 is to no lynch.

That gives: (Assuming RB is used N1 and cannot RB and kill at the same time):

Chance of getting RB'd: 1/6 - (1/6 * 1/6) = 5/36 --> Subtract the probability that scum!A RBs the killer for scum!B, but scum!B RBs the roleblocker for scum!A.

Mafia Chance of Shooting a Townie : 2/3 * 31/36 = 62/108 = 31/54 (Subtract the chance of being RB'd from 1)
Mafia Chance of Shooting a Werewolf (Doesn't matter which) : 1/3 * 31/36 = 31/108
Mafia Chance of Kill being Blocked : 5/36 = 15/108

Same chances for Werewolves. ^

Chance of Cross-Kill = 31/108 * 31/108 = 961/11664 ~ 0.0824 = 8.24% Chance.
Chance of Mafia killing Werewolf and Werewolf shooting Townie = 31/108 * 31/54 ~ 0.1648 = 16.48% Chance
Chance of Mafia killing Werewolf and Werewolf being blocked = 31/108 * 5/36 ~ 0.0399 = 3.99% Chance
Chance of both being blocked = 5/36 * 5/36 ~ 0.0193 = 1.93% Chance
Chance of 2 Townies (Possibly the same) being shot : 31/54 * 31/54 ~ 0.3296 = 32.96% Chance
Chance of Mafia shooting Townie and Werewolf Blocked = 31/54 * 5/36 ~ 0.0797 = 7.97% Chance

That gives us:

8% Chance of 4:1:1 with 4 BPs.
8% Chance of 4:2:1 with 4 BPs.
33% Chance of 4:2:1 with 3 BPs.
2% Chance of 4:2:2 with 4 BPs.
16% Chance of 4:2:2 with 3 BPs.
25% Chance of 4:2:2 with 2 BPs.
8% Chance of 3:2:2 with 3 BPs.

For 4:2:2 with 2 BPs:

Chance townie was BP : 1/2
Chance townie was not BP : 1/2

Mafia Chance of hitting BP Townie = 2/3 * 1/2 = 1/3
Mafia Chance of hitting Non-BP Townie = 2/3 * 1/2 = 1/3
Mafia Chance of hitting a Werewolf = 1/3
(And Vice-Versa)

Chance of Cross-Kill : 1/3 * 1/3 = 1/9
Chance of killing 2 Townies : 1/3 - (1/3 * 1/3) = 2/9 (Subtract probability of hitting same target)
Chance of killing 1 Townie and no one else : 1/3 * 1/3 = 1/9
Chance of killing 0 Townies and no one else : 1/3 * 1/3 = 1/9
Chance of killing 1 Werewolf and no one else : 1/3 * 1/3 = 1/9
Chance of killing 1 Werewolf and 1 Townie : 1/3 * 1/3 = 1/9

Double-Check: 2/9 + 1/9 + 1/9 + 2*1/9 + 2*1/9 + 1/9 = 9/9

So:

2/9 Chance 2:2:2 with 2 BPs (Town should try to force a lynch in this case probably)
1/9 Chance 3:2:2 with 1 BP (I'd still no lynch as town)
1/9 Chance 4:2:2 Vanilla (Is this chance stored on the wiki?)
2/9 Chance 4:2:1 with 1 BP (Town should lynch)
2/9 Chance 3:2:1 with 2 BPs (Probably no lynch)
1/9 Chance 4:1:1 with 2 BPs (Town should lynch)

For 3:2:2 with 3 BPs:

Mafia Chance of hitting Townie : 3/5
Mafia Chance of hitting Werewolf : 2/5

(Same for Werewolves)

Chance of Cross-Kill : 2/5 * 2/5 = 4/25
Chance of 1 Werewolf Death : 2/5 * 3/5 = 6/25
Chance of 1 BP dying : 3/5 * 1/5 = 3/25
Chance of 2 separate Townies hit : 3/5 * 2/5 = 6/25

Check : 4/25 + 2*6/25 + 3/25 + 6/25 = 25/25

So:

4/25 Chance of 3:1:1 with 3 BPs.
12/25 Chance of 3:2:1 with 2 BPs.
3/25 Chance of 2:2:2 with 2 BPs.
6/25 Chance of 3:2:2 with 1 BP.

Someone else can figure the rest out.
Last edited by Ircher on Sun Jul 31, 2016 8:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Select novels I've read (and ratings): Of Mice and Men (5), Jane Eyre (1), Fahrenheit 451 (7), Lord of the Flies (7.5), To Kill a Mockingbird (6), Brave New World (8), And Then There Were None (7), The Once and Future King (8.5), The Right Stuff (4), Into the Wild (8), Unbroken (8), The Great Gatsby (5.5), The Picture of Dorian Gray (5.5), The Time Machine (7)

Ircher
Jack of All Trades
 
User avatar
Joined: November 09, 2015
Pronoun: He

Post Post #4  (ISO)  » Sun Jul 31, 2016 8:38 pm

Even though no lynch is probably the best strategy for town, I will calculate some stuff if a lynch is achieved D1, but do keep in mind that town needs scum's help to lynch scum, so the actual values for actual play would probably be lower that what the EV reflects.

Both RB's will be used N1 if available.

Chance Goon is lynched = 1/4
Chance RB is lynched = 1/4
Chance BP is lynched = 1/2

If BP is lynched:

3:2:2 with 3 BPs going into the night.

Chance of getting RB'd = 1/5 - (1/5 * 1/5) = 4/25

Mafia shoot Townie : 3/5 * 21/25 = 63/125
Mafia shoot Werewolf : 2/5 * 21/25 = 42/125
Mafia Blocked : 4/25 = 20/125

Cross-Kill : 42/125 * 42/125 ~ 0.1129 = 11.29%
Townie + Werewolf Shot : 42/125 * 63/125 ~ 0.1693 = 16.93%
Both Blocked : 4/25 * 4/25 = 0.0256 = 2.56%

Meh.... Too many possibilities....
Select novels I've read (and ratings): Of Mice and Men (5), Jane Eyre (1), Fahrenheit 451 (7), Lord of the Flies (7.5), To Kill a Mockingbird (6), Brave New World (8), And Then There Were None (7), The Once and Future King (8.5), The Right Stuff (4), Into the Wild (8), Unbroken (8), The Great Gatsby (5.5), The Picture of Dorian Gray (5.5), The Time Machine (7)

shos
Survivor
 
User avatar
Joined: November 28, 2011
Pronoun: He

Post Post #5  (ISO)  » Sun Jul 31, 2016 10:46 pm

Woah, that's impressive. Can't this sort of thing be computerized or something? :nerd:
Thanks for the analysis, I'll be super happy if someone made it full!
In post 836, Lucky2u said:
Rule # 5h05: players should not attempt to use or manipulate the mod for any purpose.

Ircher
Jack of All Trades
 
User avatar
Joined: November 09, 2015
Pronoun: He

Post Post #6  (ISO)  » Mon Aug 01, 2016 10:35 am

In post 5, shos wrote:Woah, that's impressive. Can't this sort of thing be computerized or something? :nerd:
Thanks for the analysis, I'll be super happy if someone made it full!

Yes, but I'm too lazy to figure that out.
Select novels I've read (and ratings): Of Mice and Men (5), Jane Eyre (1), Fahrenheit 451 (7), Lord of the Flies (7.5), To Kill a Mockingbird (6), Brave New World (8), And Then There Were None (7), The Once and Future King (8.5), The Right Stuff (4), Into the Wild (8), Unbroken (8), The Great Gatsby (5.5), The Picture of Dorian Gray (5.5), The Time Machine (7)

shos
Survivor
 
User avatar
Joined: November 28, 2011
Pronoun: He

Post Post #7  (ISO)  » Mon Aug 01, 2016 3:55 pm

So Ircher. You assume that town will always nolynch. Why?
Town can definitely make lynches go through. scum want to lynch scum too, remember?
In post 836, Lucky2u said:
Rule # 5h05: players should not attempt to use or manipulate the mod for any purpose.

Ircher
Jack of All Trades
 
User avatar
Joined: November 09, 2015
Pronoun: He

Post Post #8  (ISO)  » Mon Aug 01, 2016 9:26 pm

In post 7, shos wrote:So Ircher. You assume that town will always nolynch. Why?
Town can definitely make lynches go through. scum want to lynch scum too, remember?

I think it's generally in town's advantage to no lynch each day until town outnumber scum (or it gets so ridiculousky scum-sided, that randomly lynching will help town's chances).

We would have to calculate the statistics for both though, and seeing it play out in an actual game might help.
Select novels I've read (and ratings): Of Mice and Men (5), Jane Eyre (1), Fahrenheit 451 (7), Lord of the Flies (7.5), To Kill a Mockingbird (6), Brave New World (8), And Then There Were None (7), The Once and Future King (8.5), The Right Stuff (4), Into the Wild (8), Unbroken (8), The Great Gatsby (5.5), The Picture of Dorian Gray (5.5), The Time Machine (7)

shos
Survivor
 
User avatar
Joined: November 28, 2011
Pronoun: He

Post Post #9  (ISO)  » Tue Aug 02, 2016 4:01 am

In post 8, Ircher wrote:
In post 7, shos wrote:So Ircher. You assume that town will always nolynch. Why?
Town can definitely make lynches go through. scum want to lynch scum too, remember?

I think it's generally in town's advantage to no lynch each day until town outnumber scum (or it gets so ridiculousky scum-sided, that randomly lynching will help town's chances).

We would have to calculate the statistics for both though, and seeing it play out in an actual game might help.


Two games have already happened. The first run was here, won by scum, basically one townie threw the game so town were in a bad position from the start. This was a CLOSED run though.
viewtopic.php?f=83&t=65225

The second run literally just ended with a brilliant town win, here:
viewtopic.php?f=83&t=67199
In post 836, Lucky2u said:
Rule # 5h05: players should not attempt to use or manipulate the mod for any purpose.

Ircher
Jack of All Trades
 
User avatar
Joined: November 09, 2015
Pronoun: He

Post Post #10  (ISO)  » Tue Aug 02, 2016 8:04 am

I would like to see an 8p run before deciding on an optimal strategy.
Select novels I've read (and ratings): Of Mice and Men (5), Jane Eyre (1), Fahrenheit 451 (7), Lord of the Flies (7.5), To Kill a Mockingbird (6), Brave New World (8), And Then There Were None (7), The Once and Future King (8.5), The Right Stuff (4), Into the Wild (8), Unbroken (8), The Great Gatsby (5.5), The Picture of Dorian Gray (5.5), The Time Machine (7)

shos
Survivor
 
User avatar
Joined: November 28, 2011
Pronoun: He

Post Post #11  (ISO)  » Tue Aug 02, 2016 8:05 am

*goes to in to mod in the queue again*
/back to study
In post 836, Lucky2u said:
Rule # 5h05: players should not attempt to use or manipulate the mod for any purpose.

Ircher
Jack of All Trades
 
User avatar
Joined: November 09, 2015
Pronoun: He

Post Post #12  (ISO)  » Tue Aug 02, 2016 9:52 am

I will /pre-in for your next test run btw.
Select novels I've read (and ratings): Of Mice and Men (5), Jane Eyre (1), Fahrenheit 451 (7), Lord of the Flies (7.5), To Kill a Mockingbird (6), Brave New World (8), And Then There Were None (7), The Once and Future King (8.5), The Right Stuff (4), Into the Wild (8), Unbroken (8), The Great Gatsby (5.5), The Picture of Dorian Gray (5.5), The Time Machine (7)

shos
Survivor
 
User avatar
Joined: November 28, 2011
Pronoun: He

Post Post #13  (ISO)  » Tue Aug 02, 2016 11:41 am

Sure, got it :)
In post 836, Lucky2u said:
Rule # 5h05: players should not attempt to use or manipulate the mod for any purpose.

shos
Survivor
 
User avatar
Joined: November 28, 2011
Pronoun: He

Post Post #14  (ISO)  » Thu Aug 11, 2016 10:45 am

Hey.
Any chance it is easier, quicker to calculate the EV of this setup when it only has 3 townies, as in 7p? Then we can estimate what the result of 8p would be instead of calculating
In post 836, Lucky2u said:
Rule # 5h05: players should not attempt to use or manipulate the mod for any purpose.

Ircher
Jack of All Trades
 
User avatar
Joined: November 09, 2015
Pronoun: He

Post Post #15  (ISO)  » Thu Aug 11, 2016 6:43 pm

Not really tbh. The number of options to explore do decrease by one degree, but 7p results may vary too much from 8p to be practical since the setup shifts to even numbers from odd numbers at start.
Select novels I've read (and ratings): Of Mice and Men (5), Jane Eyre (1), Fahrenheit 451 (7), Lord of the Flies (7.5), To Kill a Mockingbird (6), Brave New World (8), And Then There Were None (7), The Once and Future King (8.5), The Right Stuff (4), Into the Wild (8), Unbroken (8), The Great Gatsby (5.5), The Picture of Dorian Gray (5.5), The Time Machine (7)

shos
Survivor
 
User avatar
Joined: November 28, 2011
Pronoun: He

Post Post #16  (ISO)  » Sat Aug 13, 2016 3:21 am

Game in signups! Go confirm :)
In post 836, Lucky2u said:
Rule # 5h05: players should not attempt to use or manipulate the mod for any purpose.

ironstove
Mafia Scum
 
User avatar
Joined: July 22, 2016

Post Post #17  (ISO)  » Wed Aug 17, 2016 9:36 pm

Question, do the 2 mafia teams win together, or does each team have a separate win condition to control 50% of town? If it's the latter, I think this setup seems fine.

shos
Survivor
 
User avatar
Joined: November 28, 2011
Pronoun: He

Post Post #18  (ISO)  » Wed Aug 17, 2016 10:42 pm

They cannot ein together, indeed
In post 836, Lucky2u said:
Rule # 5h05: players should not attempt to use or manipulate the mod for any purpose.

shos
Survivor
 
User avatar
Joined: November 28, 2011
Pronoun: He

Post Post #19  (ISO)  » Wed Aug 17, 2016 11:32 pm

By the way, the setup is now being run, if you want to spectate.
In post 836, Lucky2u said:
Rule # 5h05: players should not attempt to use or manipulate the mod for any purpose.

shos
Survivor
 
User avatar
Joined: November 28, 2011
Pronoun: He

Post Post #20  (ISO)  » Mon Nov 21, 2016 8:32 am

Bump, after yet another successful run
In post 836, Lucky2u said:
Rule # 5h05: players should not attempt to use or manipulate the mod for any purpose.

Pine
In Your Head
 
User avatar
Joined: February 27, 2011
Location: Probably the scum PT.
Pronoun: He

Post Post #21  (ISO)  » Mon Nov 21, 2016 8:44 am

I'm not sure if this latest run is something to base viability off of. Several improbable things happened, not to mention a serious imbalance in player skill.

I'm no good at the precision math, but my impression as a scum player was that the individual scumteams are hugely disadvantaged. All town is bulletproof, and there's another, equally powerful team, and they might roleblock you, and your roleblocks are mathematically more likely to block a shot against town than halt a shot against your team. If I'd been thinking right, I would have roleblocked no one at all. The blocker is the real weak link, maybe it would be better if they instead had a Watcher
Evil Pine avatar back by request.

Infinity 324
Survivor
 
User avatar
Joined: April 07, 2013
Pronoun: He

Post Post #22  (ISO)  » Mon Nov 21, 2016 8:52 am

Maybe a cop for scum would be good
Show

Pine
In Your Head
 
User avatar
Joined: February 27, 2011
Location: Probably the scum PT.
Pronoun: He

Post Post #23  (ISO)  » Mon Nov 21, 2016 9:14 am

Ehh, straight up cop might be too much. You'd get a straight up or down every night. Even assuming D1 NL, that's 1/3 of confirming an opponent for death, 2/3 to confirm that you're better off lynching that Townie. That said, as is you have de facto copping, because a failed shot means they're probably Town, a successful one gives you a flip.

Maybe if you give each team both a Watcher and a Roleblocker, and don't restrict them to using a power or making a kill. The added scum power is actually to Town's benefit, as it merely adds to the scum vs scum play. Watcher can catch the opposing team, Roleblocker adds WIFOM and doubt to negative Watcher results and failed kills. Did the shot hit BP? Was the shot blocked? Etc
Evil Pine avatar back by request.

ThinkBig
Jack of All Trades
 
User avatar
Joined: September 11, 2016
Pronoun: He

Post Post #24  (ISO)  » Mon Nov 21, 2016 9:55 am

I'd definitely play again.
/in
I have officially retired this account. My new account is Virtuoso.

Next
[ + ]

Return to Open Setup Discussion