Post #3
(ISO)
» Sun Jul 31, 2016 7:51 pm
The problem is town has veto power, but otherwise have practically lost from the start.
Town does not control a majority of votes, so town's best option D1 is to no lynch.
That gives: (Assuming RB is used N1 and cannot RB and kill at the same time):
Chance of getting RB'd: 1/6 - (1/6 * 1/6) = 5/36 --> Subtract the probability that scum!A RBs the killer for scum!B, but scum!B RBs the roleblocker for scum!A.
Mafia Chance of Shooting a Townie : 2/3 * 31/36 = 62/108 = 31/54 (Subtract the chance of being RB'd from 1)
Mafia Chance of Shooting a Werewolf (Doesn't matter which) : 1/3 * 31/36 = 31/108
Mafia Chance of Kill being Blocked : 5/36 = 15/108
Same chances for Werewolves. ^
Chance of Cross-Kill = 31/108 * 31/108 = 961/11664 ~ 0.0824 = 8.24% Chance.
Chance of Mafia killing Werewolf and Werewolf shooting Townie = 31/108 * 31/54 ~ 0.1648 = 16.48% Chance
Chance of Mafia killing Werewolf and Werewolf being blocked = 31/108 * 5/36 ~ 0.0399 = 3.99% Chance
Chance of both being blocked = 5/36 * 5/36 ~ 0.0193 = 1.93% Chance
Chance of 2 Townies (Possibly the same) being shot : 31/54 * 31/54 ~ 0.3296 = 32.96% Chance
Chance of Mafia shooting Townie and Werewolf Blocked = 31/54 * 5/36 ~ 0.0797 = 7.97% Chance
That gives us:
8% Chance of 4:1:1 with 4 BPs.
8% Chance of 4:2:1 with 4 BPs.
33% Chance of 4:2:1 with 3 BPs.
2% Chance of 4:2:2 with 4 BPs.
16% Chance of 4:2:2 with 3 BPs.
25% Chance of 4:2:2 with 2 BPs.
8% Chance of 3:2:2 with 3 BPs.
For 4:2:2 with 2 BPs:
Chance townie was BP : 1/2
Chance townie was not BP : 1/2
Mafia Chance of hitting BP Townie = 2/3 * 1/2 = 1/3
Mafia Chance of hitting Non-BP Townie = 2/3 * 1/2 = 1/3
Mafia Chance of hitting a Werewolf = 1/3
(And Vice-Versa)
Chance of Cross-Kill : 1/3 * 1/3 = 1/9
Chance of killing 2 Townies : 1/3 - (1/3 * 1/3) = 2/9 (Subtract probability of hitting same target)
Chance of killing 1 Townie and no one else : 1/3 * 1/3 = 1/9
Chance of killing 0 Townies and no one else : 1/3 * 1/3 = 1/9
Chance of killing 1 Werewolf and no one else : 1/3 * 1/3 = 1/9
Chance of killing 1 Werewolf and 1 Townie : 1/3 * 1/3 = 1/9
Double-Check: 2/9 + 1/9 + 1/9 + 2*1/9 + 2*1/9 + 1/9 = 9/9
So:
2/9 Chance 2:2:2 with 2 BPs (Town should try to force a lynch in this case probably)
1/9 Chance 3:2:2 with 1 BP (I'd still no lynch as town)
1/9 Chance 4:2:2 Vanilla (Is this chance stored on the wiki?)
2/9 Chance 4:2:1 with 1 BP (Town should lynch)
2/9 Chance 3:2:1 with 2 BPs (Probably no lynch)
1/9 Chance 4:1:1 with 2 BPs (Town should lynch)
For 3:2:2 with 3 BPs:
Mafia Chance of hitting Townie : 3/5
Mafia Chance of hitting Werewolf : 2/5
(Same for Werewolves)
Chance of Cross-Kill : 2/5 * 2/5 = 4/25
Chance of 1 Werewolf Death : 2/5 * 3/5 = 6/25
Chance of 1 BP dying : 3/5 * 1/5 = 3/25
Chance of 2 separate Townies hit : 3/5 * 2/5 = 6/25
Check : 4/25 + 2*6/25 + 3/25 + 6/25 = 25/25
So:
4/25 Chance of 3:1:1 with 3 BPs.
12/25 Chance of 3:2:1 with 2 BPs.
3/25 Chance of 2:2:2 with 2 BPs.
6/25 Chance of 3:2:2 with 1 BP.
Someone else can figure the rest out.
Last edited by
Ircher on Sun Jul 31, 2016 8:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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