Prob 4 Towns Evicted : (11 4) / (16 4) = 18.1%
Prob 3 Towns Evicted : (11 3) (5 1) / (16 4) = 45.3%
Prob 2 Towns Evicted: (11 2) (5 2) / (16 4) = 30.2%
Prob 1 Town Evicted : (11 1) (5 3) / (16 4) = 6%
Prob 0 Town Evicted : (5 4) / (16 4) = Literally approaching 0%
Total EV:
18.1% X 1/6 + 45.3% X 3 / 11 + 30.2% X 2 /5 + 6% X 5/9 = 3%
Conclusion:
On this setup, on average, town has 3% chance town to win and mafia has 97 % chance to win
I am sorry. This does not work.
"The debate on whether short multi postings or a long wall of post is good or not is like a debate on gun control--we would never understand each other and we have to make peace with it." -Realeo
I'm mabye a serious player, but I'm capable of joke. Ok?