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inspectorscout
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Post Post #0  (ISO)  » Tue Dec 20, 2016 4:29 pm

12 Townies
4 Mafia

Players are randomly divided into 4 rooms (neighborhoods) of 4 players each.

The game starts with 3 moving phases, that last 7 days. In each phase, players have to vote to move someone from their room to another room. Each room has to send 1 player to another room. Each room may only send a player to a room they hadn't sent a player to before. This means that, after 3 moving phases, each room has 4 players yet again. Plurality vote applies. If multiple people have the same amount of votes on them at deadline, the player who first achieved the most votes in that tie will be sent to another room.

Then there is a room lynch. Everyone votes an entire room to be lynched. This phase lasts 14 days.

Then, the game advances to night phase. Mafia may kill townies, equal to the amount of other mafia members they lost in the previous phase.

After that, nightless lynch mechanics apply.


Basically, town should use the main thread to coordinate who sends who to what room, so they can lynch the scummiest room. I don't expect a high accuracy on that, but if it happens, the amount of kills changes, which should reduce swing.

Thoughts?
Last edited by inspectorscout on Thu Dec 22, 2016 7:22 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Gamma Emerald
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Post Post #1  (ISO)  » Wed Dec 21, 2016 4:04 am

This seems like a larger version of Triplicate Mafia tbh
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Realeo
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Post Post #2  (ISO)  » Thu Dec 22, 2016 6:35 am

one of the tied players will be randomly


Stop. Just no. The method shall not be randomness.

Realeo
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Post Post #3  (ISO)  » Thu Dec 22, 2016 6:39 am

This is one of those weird game that I don't have to run computer simulation:

4 Towns Evicted : 7-5 (EV:2/12)

3 Towns Evicted : 7-4 (EV:3/11)

2 Towns Evicted : 7-3 (EV:4/10)

1 Towns Evicted : 7-2 (EV:5/9)

0 Towns Evicted : 7-1 (EV:6/7)

Part 1 of 2

inspectorscout
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Post Post #4  (ISO)  » Thu Dec 22, 2016 6:40 am

In post 1, Gamma Emerald wrote:This seems like a larger version of Triplicate Mafia tbh

Well, triplicate doesn't lynch the whole room. It's also not certain there is scum in each room.

In post 2, Realeo wrote:
one of the tied players will be randomly


Stop. Just no. The method shall not be randomness.

First voted for it is!
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Realeo
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Post Post #5  (ISO)  » Thu Dec 22, 2016 6:49 am

Prob 4 Towns Evicted : (11 4) / (16 4) = 18.1%

Prob 3 Towns Evicted : (11 3) (5 1) / (16 4) = 45.3%

Prob 2 Towns Evicted: (11 2) (5 2) / (16 4) = 30.2%

Prob 1 Town Evicted : (11 1) (5 3) / (16 4) = 6%

Prob 0 Town Evicted : (5 4) / (16 4) = Literally approaching 0%

Total EV:

18.1% X 1/6 + 45.3% X 3 / 11 + 30.2% X 2 /5 + 6% X 5/9 = 3%

Conclusion:
On this setup, on average, town has 3% chance town to win and mafia has 97 % chance to win

I am sorry. This does not work. :(

inspectorscout
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Post Post #6  (ISO)  » Thu Dec 22, 2016 7:00 am

If I calculate your last line, I find 15% which is admittedly still bad, but more doable with changes.
Would changing 1 maf to a townie change much?
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Realeo
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Post Post #7  (ISO)  » Thu Dec 22, 2016 7:13 am

It should be significantly better.

4 Towns Evicted : 8-4 (EV:1/3)

3 Towns Evicted : 8-3 (EV: 5/11)

2 Towns Evicted : 8-2 (EV: 60%)

1 Towns Evicted : 8-1 (EV: 7/9)

0 Towns Evicted : Auto Win

Prob 4 Town : 27.1%

Prob 3 Town : 48.3%

Prob 2 Town : 21.7%

Prob 1 Town : 2.6%

Prob 0 Town : 0=)

27.1% X 1/3 + 5/11 X 48.3 + 60% x 21.7% + 7/9 % 2.6% = 46%

inspectorscout
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Post Post #8  (ISO)  » Thu Dec 22, 2016 7:15 am

I thought so, though not by that much
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Realeo
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Post Post #9  (ISO)  » Thu Dec 22, 2016 7:24 am

It should be significantly better.

4 Towns Evicted : 8-4 (EV:1/3)

3 Towns Evicted : 8-3 (EV: 5/11)

2 Towns Evicted : 8-2 (EV: 60%)

1 Towns Evicted : 8-1 (EV: 7/9)

0 Towns Evicted : Auto Win

Prob 4 Town : 27.1%

Prob 3 Town : 48.3%

Prob 2 Town : 21.7%

Prob 1 Town : 2.6%

Prob 0 Town : 0=)

27.1% X 1/3 + 5/11 X 48.3 + 60% x 21.7% + 7/9 % 2.6% = 46%

Although, I suspect it would be higher IRL.

inspectorscout
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Post Post #10  (ISO)  » Thu Dec 22, 2016 7:29 am

So possibly mostly balanced?
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Realeo
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Post Post #11  (ISO)  » Thu Dec 22, 2016 7:31 am

Possibly town sided. The problem with Nightless Vanila is you cant lynch obv town.

Infinity 324
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Post Post #12  (ISO)  » Thu Dec 22, 2016 7:39 am

In post 5, Realeo wrote:18.1% X 1/6 + 45.3% X 3 / 11 + 30.2% X 2 /5 + 6% X 5/9 = 3%


3.02% + 12.35% + 12.08% + 3.33% = 30.78%

I'm dissapointed real.

But your other calculation is correct :)
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Infinity 324
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Post Post #13  (ISO)  » Thu Dec 22, 2016 7:43 am

I'm also curious how you calculated the probability of lynching a certain amount of townies
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Realeo
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Post Post #14  (ISO)  » Thu Dec 22, 2016 8:30 am

What? My calculator said 3.078 so I wrote 3.078%.= 3%

I missed by a SINGLE power of ten.

For your question : It has been solved by mith that EV = (town-maf) / (town+math)

Infinity 324
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Post Post #15  (ISO)  » Thu Dec 22, 2016 8:59 am

In post 14, Realeo wrote:What? My calculator said 3.078 so I wrote 3.078%.= 3%

I missed by a SINGLE power of ten.

For your question : It has been solved by mith that EV = (town-maf) / (town+math)

ok thanks
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inspectorscout
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Post Post #16  (ISO)  » Thu Dec 22, 2016 2:42 pm

Letting scum nightkill the members they lost +1 gives the following (I used realo's numbers for this)

8.13+16.1+10.85+1.95=37%

which is maybe fine, but maybe just a bit too scumsided again.

Another, admittedly less elegant, solution would be to give scum a 1-shot dayvig to be used at any time during the nightless lynches, except for lylo.
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