[SETUP] Common Ground

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[SETUP] Common Ground

Post Post #0 (ISO) » Tue Jan 24, 2017 8:47 am

Post by Umlaut »

2
Mafia Goons

2
Werewolves

9
Townies


Mechanics
  • Day start
  • Day talk(?)
  • The Mafia and Werewolves share a private topic, and are aware of one another's identities.
  • Mafia cannot target Werewolves for the night kill and
    vice versa.

  • If all townies are eliminated, the majority faction wins. The game is drawn if they are equal in number.
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Post Post #1 (ISO) » Tue Jan 24, 2017 11:40 pm

Post by BBmolla »

I'm last Werewolf getting lynched. I post "X and Y are the mafia." Game is over.
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Post Post #2 (ISO) » Tue Jan 24, 2017 11:40 pm

Post by BBmolla »

until you can fix that, this sort of game isn't very playable sadly.
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Post Post #3 (ISO) » Wed Jan 25, 2017 2:05 am

Post by Umlaut »

Ugh, you're right. (Though this doesn't help the Werewolves win, it's just spiteful.)

I wonder if anyone would take "levels of winning" seriously, e.g. Werewolves win big if they're the majority, win small if the Mafia is the majority, and lose if both factions are eliminated.

EDIT: Actually I'm not even sure I can take it seriously.
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Post Post #4 (ISO) » Wed Jan 25, 2017 3:07 am

Post by Umlaut »

It could possibly work if I had the magical ability to lock the thread the instant a lynch was reached, and expressly forbade claiming scum even when caught.
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Post Post #5 (ISO) » Sun Jan 29, 2017 1:04 pm

Post by Gamma Emerald »

that would make fun dilemmas
maybe make a single x-factor in the scum PT (e.i. survivor)
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Post Post #6 (ISO) » Sun Jan 29, 2017 5:48 pm

Post by LlamaFluff »

This setup may be as close as you can get to something like that
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Post Post #7 (ISO) » Mon Jan 30, 2017 4:18 pm

Post by callforjudgement »

In post 3, Umlaut wrote:Ugh, you're right. (Though this doesn't help the Werewolves win, it's just spiteful.)
It does: the act of going through with the threat doesn't, but the act of being able to plausibly make it definitely does (especially given that actually going through with it doesn't hurt their victory chances either, so they have no reason not to do it).
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· scam · seam · team · term · tern · torn ·
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Post Post #8 (ISO) » Tue Jan 31, 2017 5:59 am

Post by Creature »

What if each scumteam had to submit three targets and then the other scumteam had to select one of these targets to kill?
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Post Post #9 (ISO) » Tue Jan 31, 2017 6:01 am

Post by Gamma Emerald »

that would slow the game down tho
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Post Post #10 (ISO) » Tue Jan 31, 2017 6:03 am

Post by Creature »

During the day.
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Post Post #11 (ISO) » Tue Jan 31, 2017 7:54 pm

Post by LlamaFluff »

Or you could just say night is 72 hours and the deadline is 24 hours. If no names submitted other scum has free range of kills.
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Post Post #12 (ISO) » Wed Feb 01, 2017 2:33 am

Post by ChaosOmega »

In post 8, Creature wrote:What if each scumteam had to submit three targets and then the other scumteam had to select one of these targets to kill?
Gives me an idea for a setup.

Jungle Oligarchy
2 Werewolves

3 Mafia Goons

8 Townies

  • Day start
  • Mafia have day talk; werewolves do not
  • Werewolves have a factional nightkill; mafia do not
  • During the day, the mafia submits a list of 3 players, which can change throughout the day
  • At the start of night, the list is made public in-thread; if the werewolves choose to nightkill, the target must be one from the list

Thoughts?
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Post Post #13 (ISO) » Wed Feb 01, 2017 2:37 am

Post by Gamma Emerald »

make the kill list public and we're good
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Post Post #14 (ISO) » Wed Feb 01, 2017 4:31 am

Post by callforjudgement »

If the wolves were on the same team as town, that would basically be Nomination Mafia.

However, they aren't, which makes things play out rather differently (and perhaps justifies the very large number of townies).
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Post Post #15 (ISO) » Wed Feb 01, 2017 7:08 pm

Post by LlamaFluff »

So basically Jungle Republic with the Seer swapped for Mafia control of where the kills go? That might be workable.
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Post Post #16 (ISO) » Wed Feb 01, 2017 8:16 pm

Post by BBmolla »

Would probably be more balanced tbh.
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Post Post #17 (ISO) » Wed Feb 01, 2017 8:24 pm

Post by BBmolla »

Also in conjunction:

Honey Too Much Scum
1 Serial Killer

2 Mafia Goons

6 Townies

  • Day start
  • Mafia have day talk
  • Serial Killer has a nightkill; mafia do not
  • During the day, the mafia submits a list of 2 players, which can change throughout the day
  • At the start of night, the list is made public in-thread; if the Serial Killer chooses to nightkill, the target must be one from the list. Serial Killer may not self kill.
  • 2:2:1 is considered a mafia victory.
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Post Post #18 (ISO) » Thu Feb 02, 2017 10:24 am

Post by TierShift »

I'm gonna run EV on that in a bit BB. I love the setup but it looks really mafiasided.
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Post Post #19 (ISO) » Thu Feb 02, 2017 11:25 am

Post by TierShift »

Assumptions:
1) mafia don't selfnom (might do it sometimes, but not often, and I doubt it affects EV much)
2) town lynch every day and randomly (lynching from the list has 0 chance of lynching scum, but a higher than average chance to hit SK, therefore I find this reasonable)
3) SK always kills anyone on the list that is not himself (unless it's 3:2:1, in which case killing immediately loses)
4) mafia immediately win at 2:2:1, whether it's day or night (because that wasn't entirely clear)
5) SK still kills on last day mafia is lynched
6) SK doesn't kill if mafia are eliminated
7) 0:1:1 endgame is SK win since he has a kill and the maf doesn't
8) 1:1:1 is a town loss (otherwise town can make lazy plays for the draw)
Spoiler: mith's nightless formula
Calculating EV
EV[M,T] = (T-M)/(T+M)


This means there is always a NK on town unless it's 3:2:1.

Spoiler: boring calculations
Day 1:
town lynch+NK: 6/9-->4:2:1
mafia lynch+NK: 2/9-->5:1:1
SK lynch: 1/9-->6:2 nightless, 50% EV for town/mafia.
Town EV 1/9*1/2=1/18 Scum EV 1/9*1/2=1/18


Day 2:
If 4:2:1 (probability 2/3)
Town lynch+no NK: 6/9*4/7=8/21 -->3:2:1
Scum lynch+NK: 6/9*2/7=4/21-->3:1:1
SK lynch: 6/9*1/7=2/21-->4:2 nightless, 1/3 EV for town, 2/3 for mafia.
Town EV 6/9*1/7*1/3=2/63 Scum EV=6/9*1/7*2/3=4/63


If 5:1:1 (probability 2/9)
Town lynch+NK: 2/9*5/7=10/63-->3:1:1
Scum lynch+NK: 2/9*1/7=2/63-->4:0:1 nightless, 3/5 EV for town, 2/5 for SK
Town EV 2/63*3/5=2/105 SK EV=2/63*2/5=4/315

SK lynch: 2/9*1/7=2/63--> 5:1 nightless, 2/3 EV for town, 1/3 for mafia
Town EV 2/63*2/3=4/189 Scum EV= 2/63*1/3=2/189


Day 3
If 3:2:1 (probability 8/21)
Town lynch: 8/21*3/6=4/21-->mafia win
Scum EV=4/21

Scum lynch+town NK: 8/21*2/6=8/63-->2:1:1
SK lynch: 8/21*1/6=4/63-->3:2 nightless, 1/5 EV for town, 4/5 for mafia
Town EV 4/63*1/5=4/315 Scum EV=4/63*4/5=16/315


If 3:1:1 (probability 4/21+10/63=22/63)
Town lynch +no NK (SK wants to avoid kingmaker since he wins in 3/4 of the cases): 22/63*3/5= 22/105-->2:1:1
Scum lynch +NK: 22/63*1/5=22/315-->2:0:1 1/3 EV for town, 2/3 for SK
Town EV 22/315*1/3=22/945, SK EV=22/315*2/3=44/945

SK lynch: 22/63*1/5=22/315-->3:1 nightless, 1/2 EV for town/maf
Town EV=22/315*1/2=11/315, Scum EV=22/315*1/2=11/315


Day 4
2:1:1 (probability 6/63+22/105=106/315)
Town lynch+NK: 106/315*2/4=53/315-->SK win
SK EV 53/315

Scum lynch+NK:106/315*1/4=53/630-->SK win
SK EV 53/630

SK lynch: 106/315*1/4=53/630-->2:1 1/3 EV for town, 2/3 for mafia
Town EV=53/630*1/3=53/1890 Scum EV=53/630*2/3=53/945


Total town EV: 1/18+2/63+2/105+4/189+4/315+22/945+11/315+53/1890=214/945=0.226
Total scum EV: 1/18+4/63+2/189+4/21+16/315+11/315+53/945=97/210=0.462
Total SK EV: 4/315+44/945+53/315+53/630=589/1890=0.312

Not as bad as I originally thought. However, town absolutely have to eliminate one scum faction fast or keep facing NKs. Town preferably eliminate SK day 1 or SK day 2 or 3 with 1 mafia removed. Eliminating mafia day 2 also works, doing it on day 3 goes to a difficult 2:1 lylo since SK has limited associative tells. Removing SK post day 1 without a mafia removed makes it extremely hard. Not removing any faction until day 4 gives town a probability of only 1/12 of winning.

Looks like an extremely interesting set-up. Send me a message if you ever decide to run it.
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Post Post #20 (ISO) » Thu Feb 02, 2017 9:33 pm

Post by BBmolla »

Hm. How are the winrates affected if the mafia are lovers?
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