[SETUP] Common Ground
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Umlaut Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
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BBmolla Open Book
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BBmolla Open Book
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Umlaut Jack of All Trades
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Ugh, you're right. (Though this doesn't help the Werewolves win, it's just spiteful.)
I wonder if anyone would take "levels of winning" seriously, e.g. Werewolves win big if they're the majority, win small if the Mafia is the majority, and lose if both factions are eliminated.
EDIT: Actually I'm not even sure I can take it seriously.-
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Umlaut Jack of All Trades
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Gamma Emerald AnySurvivorAny
- Survivor
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LlamaFluff Jack of All Trades
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This setup may be as close as you can get to something like that-
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callforjudgement Microprocessor
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It does: the act of going through with the threat doesn't, but the act of being able to plausibly make it definitely does (especially given that actually going through with it doesn't hurt their victory chances either, so they have no reason not to do it).
scum· scam · seam · team · term · tern · torn ·town-
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Creature Solve This Game
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Gamma Emerald AnySurvivorAny
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Creature Solve This Game
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LlamaFluff Jack of All Trades
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Or you could just say night is 72 hours and the deadline is 24 hours. If no names submitted other scum has free range of kills.-
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ChaosOmega Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
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Gives me an idea for a setup.
Thoughts?Is it any wonder things seem so awry? We swim in a sea of confusion and don't have to think to survive, so nobody listens!-
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Gamma Emerald AnySurvivorAny
- Survivor
- Survivor
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callforjudgement Microprocessor
- Microprocessor
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LlamaFluff Jack of All Trades
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So basically Jungle Republic with the Seer swapped for Mafia control of where the kills go? That might be workable.-
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BBmolla Open Book
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BBmolla Open Book
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TierShift Jack of All Trades
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TierShift Jack of All Trades
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Assumptions:
1) mafia don't selfnom (might do it sometimes, but not often, and I doubt it affects EV much)
2) town lynch every day and randomly (lynching from the list has 0 chance of lynching scum, but a higher than average chance to hit SK, therefore I find this reasonable)
3) SK always kills anyone on the list that is not himself (unless it's 3:2:1, in which case killing immediately loses)
4) mafia immediately win at 2:2:1, whether it's day or night (because that wasn't entirely clear)
5) SK still kills on last day mafia is lynched
6) SK doesn't kill if mafia are eliminated
7) 0:1:1 endgame is SK win since he has a kill and the maf doesn't
8) 1:1:1 is a town loss (otherwise town can make lazy plays for the draw)
Spoiler: mith's nightless formula
This means there is always a NK on town unless it's 3:2:1.
Spoiler: boring calculations
Total town EV: 1/18+2/63+2/105+4/189+4/315+22/945+11/315+53/1890=214/945=0.226
Total scum EV: 1/18+4/63+2/189+4/21+16/315+11/315+53/945=97/210=0.462
Total SK EV: 4/315+44/945+53/315+53/630=589/1890=0.312
Not as bad as I originally thought. However, town absolutely have to eliminate one scum faction fast or keep facing NKs. Town preferably eliminate SK day 1 or SK day 2 or 3 with 1 mafia removed. Eliminating mafia day 2 also works, doing it on day 3 goes to a difficult 2:1 lylo since SK has limited associative tells. Removing SK post day 1 without a mafia removed makes it extremely hard. Not removing any faction until day 4 gives town a probability of only 1/12 of winning.
Looks like an extremely interesting set-up. Send me a message if you ever decide to run it.-
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BBmolla Open Book
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