[SETUP] Committees and Leaders

[Errantparabola]

AKA Triplicate Mafia 2?

what are the thoughts on this? i would like to run this or something similar.
i know, there are a lot of possibilities.
all boxed stuff is setup.

2 Mafia Goons

7 Vanilla Townies

Group of 9 players. 3 Private Topics.
Mafia have daytalk and no nightkill on Night 1.

On Day 1, the groups are as follows.

(

2 VT

/

1 Goon

) -- (

2 VT

/

1 Goon

) -- (

3 VT

)

If both mafia are lynched, town wins.
If three VTs are lynched, town loses.
If no one is lynched, town loses.

Spoiler: Here are probabilities for lynch outcomes.

Assuming 1/4 chance for each player and 1/4 chance for no lynch (which is likely not an accurate estimate).

(1)

3 VT, 0 Goon - 12/64, TOWN LOSES

(2) 2 VT, 0 Goon - 16/64
(3) 2 VT, 1 Goon - 12/64
(4) 1 VT, 0 Goon - 7/64
(5) 1 VT, 1 Goon - 10/64
(6)

1 VT, 2 Goon - 3/64, TOWN WINS

(7)

0 VT, 0 Goon - 1/64, TOWN LOSES

(8) 0 VT, 1 Goon - 2/64
(9)

0 VT, 2 Goon - 1/64, TOWN WINS

Otherwise, the game proceeds to night, then into a public thread, modified based on

who was lynched

.

If 1 VT is lynched: During the Night Phase, they may vengekill one person within their group.
If 2 VTs are lynched: During the Night Phase, they will be privately informed of which of their groups have goons. (This is either 1 or 2.) They must agree to vengekill one person within those groups.
Additionally, if 1 Goon is lynched: During the Night Phase, they must vengekill one person within their group.

After this, the game proceeds in a public thread and PTs are made public.
If someone is mechanically cleared, they become a Leader and are Bulletproof.

Spoiler: Here are probabilities for night outcomes.

Numbers are of people still alive. Again, all options are weighted equally.
I may have made a mistake with clears, I am unsure.

(2a) 5 VT, 1 Goon -> 8/64, 1 cleared town.

(2b) 4 VT, 2 Goon -> 8/64, TOWN LOSES

(3a) 4 VT, 0 Goon - 6/64, TOWN WINS

(3b) 3 VT, 1 Goon - 6/64, 1 cleared town.

(4a) 6 VT, 1 Goon - 1.16/64, 1 cleared town.
(4b) 5 VT, 2 Goon - 3.5/64, 0 cleared town.
(4c) 6 VT, 2 Goon - 2.33/64, 0 cleared town.

(5a) 4 VT, 1 Goon - 5/64, 1 cleared town.
(5b) 5 VT, 1 Goon - 3.33/64, 1 cleared town.

(5c) 6 VT, 0 Goon - 1.66/64, TOWN WINS

(8) 6 VT, 1 Goon - 2/64, 1 cleared town.

Here are tentative probability sums based on assumptions I made.
An additional assumption is town auto-MYLO in 3 town/1 goon.

Spoiler: All D2 outcomes.

(1) Town wins before D2: 11.66/64
(2) Town loses before D2: 21/64

(3) D2 is 3/1 with 1 clear: 6/64
(4) D2 is 4/1 with 1 clear: 5/64
(5) D2 is 5/1 with 1 clear: 11.33/64
(6) D2 is 6/1 with 1 clear: 3.16/64

(7) D2 is 5/2 with 0 clear: 3.5/64
(8) D2 is 6/2 with 0 clear: 2.33/64

Some egregious estimation here, but most of it is mathematically calculated.
OVERALL:
TOWN WINS - 28.75
(1) - 11.66 // (3) - 3 // (4) - 3.125 // (5) - 6.798 // (6) - 2.1725 // (7) - 1.5 // (8) - 0.5

TOWN LOSES - 35.25
(2) - 21 // (3) - 3 // (4) - 1.8 // (5) - 4.532 // (6) - 0.9125 // (7) - 2.5 // (8) - 1.5

At a total math estimate, town hits about 45% winrate through random lynching...?

[XnadrojX]

I've seen something like this setup run on the site I originally come from (Mafia had their nightkill there).

If Town random lynches the first day, don't they have a 3/9 chance of actually getting a scum, since 3 groups of 3, only two groups have 1 scum. Meaning assuming random lynches there's a 1/9 chance of getting 2 scum, 2/9 chance of getting 1 scum and 6/9 chance of getting 0 scum (Unless I math-ed something wrongly). I'm ignoring NoLynch's since the groups are in PTs they don't know whether other groups are lynching or not, which means they probably rather risk lynching a random dude and hoping he's scum than NoLynching and hoping the other group didn't have this idea.

What will the chances be if Town didn't insta-lose when 3 NLs happen and instead scum had to choose like a bunch of people to die instead? Then Town can NL and not risk insta-losing.
I assume the game continues after Day 1 as vanilla and the groups disbands?

I'm not well-learned about Opens and setups in general, I just thought I'd share my thoughts as I've played something like this before.

[MathBlade]

Honestly I would be concerned about this one.
Assume 3 VT group no lynches correctly.
Assume one 1 scum 2 VT group choose no lynch.
Assume one 1 scum 2 VT group lynches town.

Then whether all the town have a game based on that one mislynched town having to shoot correctly.

If they pick the wrong person in their group then town loses.

And it's all based on the play of one hood. Like the other two hoods could never made a single post or accurately play the game and their results don't matter.

I love the concept but I think winning or losing the game should be determined by the play in all the hoods. You'd have some pretty salty 3 VTs if they accurately no lynch. (The middle group might have a case of improperly no lynching but....I just have a hard time saying to players that they lose for circumstances outside their control)

I think this MIGHT be mitigated through a pregame before breaking into the groups maybe. Or maybe you need more players.

I love the concept but I think when a player can play correctly and then lose due to circumstances outside their control that'd create a lot of salty people.

[Sukima]

How would it be auto-loss? They'd still have 5/2, wouldn't they? (1 ML, 1 vengeshot miss, no NK)

[Randomnamechange]

so each set of three lynches within their group?
town has 5/9 chance of hitting at least one scum and 1/9 chance of hitting two scum.
one group is irrelevant as it is effectively a guaranteed town lynch. it is correct play for every group to lynch. Scum should win day 1 in 4/9 games. the group with no scum in have no influence on the game's outcome in almost half of games.