[SETUP] Marked For Death

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Toto
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Post Post #0  (ISO)  » Mon May 08, 2017 11:23 pm

This should be balanced at 8p (theoretically) with EV ~45% townsided.


This set-up introduces a new role.

Marked For Death: IC, announced at the beginning of the day, dies at the end of day unless all members of mafia are dead.

+ 6 VT
+ 2 Goons

Mafia has no night kill. Instead, every night mafia has to select one living VT and convert them to Marked For Death. They are announced as such the at the start of the next day, and die at the end of it.

Note: this setup is theoretically equivalent to 6 D2+ Backup IC + 2 Goons, however the main difference here is that mafia is forced to kill the IC every night, and select which backup IC takes over. The reasons is that I speculate this makes the game more interesting for both parties.
Last edited by Toto on Sun May 14, 2017 8:15 pm, edited 5 times in total.
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Gamma Emerald
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Post Post #1  (ISO)  » Mon May 08, 2017 11:27 pm

So mafia can win by the end of d2.
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Toto
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Post Post #2  (ISO)  » Mon May 08, 2017 11:31 pm

In post 1, Gamma Emerald wrote:So mafia can win by the end of d2.


Not sure I understand. They don't have night kill. They can only Mark.
just because you get evil player role doesn't mean you are a evil person at HEART - KainTepes!!!

Gamma Emerald
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Post Post #3  (ISO)  » Mon May 08, 2017 11:32 pm

Alright. This setup seems balanced then. I'll run some math myself.
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randomidget
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Post Post #4  (ISO)  » Wed May 10, 2017 2:22 pm

this doesnt feel balanced to me. 2v7 is unbalanced and this doesnt seem like that much of a benefit to town?
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Toto
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Post Post #5  (ISO)  » Wed May 10, 2017 2:49 pm

In post 4, randomidget wrote:this doesnt feel balanced to me. 2v7 is unbalanced and this doesnt seem like that much of a benefit to town?


It's math.

Vanilla 2v7 has ~30% Town WR.

This has 45%.

The main difference is that everyday you have a confirmed townie. So for example, in a 2v1 lylo normally chances would be 33%; here it is 50% because one of the townies is confirmed (marked for death).
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Post Post #6  (ISO)  » Wed May 10, 2017 3:17 pm

ah ok fair enough, i didnt think about that fact that the utility goes up massively in late game.
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Toto
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Post Post #7  (ISO)  » Wed May 10, 2017 3:32 pm

Yeah here are town chances at every possible stage:

t=2 m=1: 50.00%
t=3 m=2: 25.00%
t=3 m=1: 50.00%
t=4 m=1: 62.50%
t=4 m=2: 25.00%
t=5 m=2: 37.50%
t=5 m=1: 62.50%
t=6 m=1: 68.75%
t=6 m=2: 45.31%

(edited for no mark on d1 set up)
Last edited by Toto on Sat Nov 25, 2017 3:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Post Post #8  (ISO)  » Sun May 14, 2017 7:20 pm

It also has the interesting dynamic of scum being unable to just kill and silence a townie that they want; by selecting someone for death, they conf!town the slot and give it influence. Of course, it's probably kind of annoying to be the d1 death marked townie, since you know in advance that you're gonna die quickly. I kinda feel like that should be a random generated thing? I guess the ? is if the overall EV is enough to require that scum do get that option, it's just that it'd be annoying for players who want to influence the game to feel like they'd just be the d1 automatic in order to silence their voice longterm.
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Toto
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Post Post #9  (ISO)  » Sun May 14, 2017 7:22 pm

Yeah, I thought about that. I can actually remove the first Marked For Death role, and the theoretical EV should remain the same on a 8p set up.

I expect a D1 lynch on scum will be harder in practice since it requires a large fraction of town to cooperate.
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Post Post #10  (ISO)  » Sun May 14, 2017 7:25 pm

I'd actually say that 6v2 with no d1 mark is probably a bit more fun for everyone. Whether it's balanced or not depends on how much +EV town's scumhunting is; like, 45% theoretical win rate from random lynching is kind of high (probably towns do a little bit worse on 6v2 with no d1 mark vs 7v2 with a d1 mark but I won't swear to it), and I'd suspect that towns would win this a bit more often than not.
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BBmolla
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Post Post #11  (ISO)  » Sun May 14, 2017 8:09 pm

Looks good.

Toto
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Post Post #12  (ISO)  » Sun May 14, 2017 8:13 pm

Thanks, I think I'll try 6v2 to start with then.
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callforjudgement
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Post Post #13  (ISO)  » Sat Nov 25, 2017 12:48 am

If you need a review approval for this (you seemed unsure in the Queue thread), I'm happy to approve it too (at 6:2 with no d1 mark). I'd expect it to be slightly townsided, because scum can't get a persuasive/accurate town voice out of the game immediately (and will in fact give temporarily give their voice more weight), but that might well end up being outweighed by WIFOM in practice. In any case, it isn't far off.
scum · scam · seam · team · term · tern · torn · town

Toto
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Post Post #14  (ISO)  » Sat Nov 25, 2017 3:27 pm

In post 13, callforjudgement wrote:If you need a review approval for this (you seemed unsure in the Queue thread), I'm happy to approve it too (at 6:2 with no d1 mark). I'd expect it to be slightly townsided, because scum can't get a persuasive/accurate town voice out of the game immediately (and will in fact give temporarily give their voice more weight), but that might well end up being outweighed by WIFOM in practice. In any case, it isn't far off.


Thanks!

I'm hoping to try this smaller set up a few times before I try to increase the player count to make sure it works in practice.
just because you get evil player role doesn't mean you are a evil person at HEART - KainTepes!!!

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Post Post #15  (ISO)  » Sat Nov 25, 2017 3:28 pm

err

this is like 7/2
Ask yourself, what would Keyser Soze do?

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Post Post #16  (ISO)  » Sat Nov 25, 2017 6:52 pm

In post 15, RadiantCowbells wrote:err

this is like 7/2

It's like 7:2 but each day you have a confirmed townie (who changes from day to day). That's a big benefit in PoE (in addition to knowing that that player's reads are genuine), and that should show up as a higher town win rate.
scum · scam · seam · team · term · tern · torn · town

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Post Post #17  (ISO)  » Sat Nov 25, 2017 6:56 pm

And also scum don’t have the option to no kill because that only helps town instead of a 3/1 where scum auto win after a mislynch.
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RadiantCowbells
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Post Post #18  (ISO)  » Sat Nov 25, 2017 7:11 pm

guaranteeing no higher than 40% winrate after 20 games, probably significantly less.
Ask yourself, what would Keyser Soze do?

Toto
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Post Post #19  (ISO)  » Sun Nov 26, 2017 12:15 am

In post 18, RadiantCowbells wrote:guaranteeing no higher than 40% winrate after 20 games, probably significantly less.


TBH I'm more worried that this is too much townsided. So I guess this makes me feel better.

You should Q in one of those 20 games and tell me how it feels.
just because you get evil player role doesn't mean you are a evil person at HEART - KainTepes!!!

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Post Post #20  (ISO)  » Fri Jan 12, 2018 6:44 pm

I think this is definitely balanced. The named townie approach is interesting and creates some weird counterclaim situations in LyLo. That part I'm not sure about. On one hand, it benefits scum in endgame by allowing wiggle room. On the other hand, it allows town to withhold their claim in early game and act as a on-PM Innocent Child to get reactions.


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