[SETUP] Called It

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callforjudgement
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[SETUP] Called It

Post Post #0 (ISO) » Sat Oct 07, 2017 1:04 pm

Post by callforjudgement »

Called It
  • 7 Vanilla Townies
  • 2 Mafia Goons
  • The game starts with a day phase, which has normal Mafia mechanics (voting, lynching, etc.). If scum is lynched during this first day phase, town automatically win.
  • Assuming a town lynch, game goes to night; scum have a normal (but compulsive) nightkill.
  • For the rest of the game, there's no more voting or lynching. Rather, each remaining player has one guess at the scumteam (which they make publicly, using a boldpost). If any player guesses the scumteam, town wins. If town run out of guesses, scum wins. (Scum can guess too in order to look like a townie; presumably, they'd intentionally guess wrong.)


EV calculation: The best breaking strategy is to assume that the town is directing guesses (and assigning each guess to a player who isn't included in the scumteam they're guessing at); this effectively means that the scum's guess opportunities can help out the town (because two guesses that would turn out to be wrong will be "assigned" to scum, thus meaning that a townie doesn't have to waste their guess on it). If all scumhunting is done at random, the chance the game result is a town win on day 1 is 2/9 = 6/27; and that it's a town win on day 2 is 7/9 × 7/21 = 7/27.

That gives a 13/27 chance that town will win by one or the other method (and a 14/27 chance of a scum win). Even if town doesn't try to direct guesses, something that could be quite hard in practice, the EV isn't that much lower (it's now 2/9 + (7/9 × 5/19) = (38 + 35)/171 = 73/171). One thing I'm a little worried about is that these EVs seem a bit high given that scum only get one kill, but the setup hopefully isn't horribly townsided anyway. Another potential problem is the lack of information for town after D1. Still, I thought I'd post this anyway in case anyone's really interested in it (if there is a lot of interest, I can run it) or in case it gives someone ideas.
scum
· scam · seam · team · term · tern · torn ·
town
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Post Post #1 (ISO) » Mon Oct 16, 2017 10:04 am

Post by Randomnamechange »

I think this should be alright without associatives? it isnt rly efficient for town to entirely control the choices bc if scum gets into the towbloc they are completely fucked.
vonflare (21:40)
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Post Post #2 (ISO) » Tue Oct 17, 2017 10:08 pm

Post by Bicephalous Bob »

I think I like Fortnight better.
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