Open for Micro Queue

This forum is for discussion of individual Open Setups, including theoretical balance.
Jingle
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Post Post #0  (ISO)  » Sun Dec 17, 2017 4:00 pm

I'm a little feverish now, but I had an idea for a game to throw into the mostly empty Micro queue and wanted a quick and dirty balance analysis before deciding whether to scrap it or move forward. :wink:

8 Player6x Town
2x Mafia

1 Cop
1 Jailkeeper
1 Roleblocker
1 Tracker
4x Vanilla

Roles randomized independently of alignment. If town receives all PR's, Mafia chooses one of their own to become ascetic at the beginning of Night 1. Ascetic flips as goon.

Roleblocker takes preference over JK should they cross target.


Any obviously breaking strategies/setup issues I'm overlooking?
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Espeonage
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Post Post #1  (ISO)  » Sun Dec 17, 2017 5:19 pm

Could just have Mafia draft a role first and assign rest randomly.
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Post Post #2  (ISO)  » Sun Dec 17, 2017 5:21 pm

Mafia gets cop only = Town win
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Post Post #3  (ISO)  » Sun Dec 17, 2017 5:30 pm

I'd replace jailkeeper with rolecop.
Make mafiascum great again

Espeonage
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Post Post #4  (ISO)  » Sun Dec 17, 2017 5:31 pm

If scum don't get RB or JK there is a pretty good chance with 6/2 town can get an extra misslynch.

They can get three theoretically. Which is rough with an investigate as well.

Town has shown to be able to win 7/2 vanilla (its still scumsided but I feel relevant bc its the same amount of misslynches), stick in effectively no scum power and three useful town PR it can go pear shaped hard for scum even with perfect day play, which is generally a sign of an unfair setup.

Keep the setup the same but let scum draft a role. Town gets more power to make up the numbers disadvantage and scum don't have a chance of getting really badly screwed.

PEDIT: Thats not a bad move except then there are three ways for town to find scum. JK forfeits the investigation aspect bc you could have stopped killer or target.
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Jingle
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Post Post #5  (ISO)  » Mon Dec 18, 2017 12:56 am

I lean against having the scum draft a role. Not only does it fundamentally change the style of the game (WIFOM of role selection instead of roles being wholly null) it could lead to an unfortunate situation of lynching one scum and having a ridiculously small lynch pool. Particularly a goon flip means that scum can’t afford to shoot prs and can’t afford not to shoot prs, making the game functionally unwinnable day 1.

I’ll think about it a little more and maybe post some numbers tonight. Tracker could maybe become rolecop, but jk and rb together helps to prevent any hard innos/guilties.

Thanks for the feedback guys. I’ll see what I can do to fix the setup. Honestly I was more worried about scum getting two roles and stomping because of it.
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Jingle
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Post Post #6  (ISO)  » Mon Dec 18, 2017 6:10 pm

Okay, I'm not gonna do analysis for every case, because there are a ton of them and I frankly don't have that kind of time. Most of the 1v3's seem pretty balanced to me on the premise that it's not a drafted pick. I'll look at the cop one particularly, the best case scenario for scum (JK AND RB) and the no PRs for scum case right now for ease of my mind.

Scum CopSetup is Tracker, RB, JK V Cop.

Tracker cannot get a guilty assuming Cop makes nightkills until cop is lynched. Cop is unlikely to be D1 lynch.
RB and JK cannot get innos or guilties as long as either is alive and both scum alive.

Best case for scum:

JK lynch D1.
N1 RB hits Tracker.

D2 Mylo with no additional information and no town claims. Cop can fake guilty for victory, or let things play out as is, depending on situation. Probable scumwin D2.

VT Lynch- (Not hard numbers, approximations) 50%
JK targets scum who kills or nightkill target (1/7 + 1/6) and is not targeted by RB (-1/7 P) -> 85/294
RB targets scum who kills (1/7) and is not targeted by JK -> 6/49

Successfully stop NK -> 121/294 -> 41% for one stopped nightkill, which likely outs both JK and RB.

Tracker gets soft guilty 1/7 -> Not insta lynch due to cop safeclaim, not possible if tracker gets rb'd, jk'd, or scum nightkill stopped. (1/7 * 30%)

Odds of Scum nightkill hitting 59%. Odds of scum nightkill hitting town power 50%.

Assuming scum nightkill is stopped D2 is

5v2 with very little usable information. Similar to 7v2 nightless, which is scum sided, but with the possibility to get more information future days. Reasonably balanced. No innocents possible. No hard guilties possible. Soft guilty is approx 4% of the time.

In the case that scum is lynched Day 1 (25%), odds of prevented kill remain the same. Odds of 3 innocents: RB targets not tracker, not scum, not JK and not kill, 3/7 AND JK targets not tracker, not scum, not RB, not kill, and not rb target 2/7, AND tracker targets not kill not rb target not JK target, not scum, not kill 3/7 AND scum kill not tracker not JK not RB 3/7. 2% Scum autolose.

Tracker guilty, scum lose. 1/7 x 6/7 x 6/7 x 5/7. 7% scum autolose. So, if Scum is lynched D1, scum has a 10% chance of autolosing D2, which is reasonable based on superb day play D1 by town. Elsewise, scum have a severe uphill battle, but that is a reasonable expectation from a scumlynch D1 in a 6v2 setup. This scenario seems incredibly fair, unless I'm misreading something massively.


Best case scenario for Scum:

JK+RB vs 6 VT Tracker Cop. 1/32 of games. (3/32 games scum will have 2 PRs, which is ~9% of setups.)

No protections possible, meaning only one mislynch. Scum probably not lynched D1 based on claims.

This looks crazy scumsided. Possible mitigations: could force scum to use power or kill. (Doesn't affect scum cop, only really onerous in cases where one scum is lynched or both scum have powers, and in fact I really like this option.) reroll setups where scum have 2 PRs. (Dislike this immensely, for the same reason as I dislike the draft option. Lynching a scum PR basically ends the game in town's favor by clearing 3 players.) Give town some advantage they don't know about in the case of 2 scum PRs (Vt's all get 1x BP but aren't told?) needs thought.

Any ideas here would be immensely helpful.


I'll do the ascetic later, cause I have to leave five minutes ago, but basically, the ascetic is immune to cop and tracker as long as rb and jk are alive because rb OR jk targeting and lying about it (or actually targeting) is more immediately likely than them being the ascetic. Cop becomes most important town power. RB is negative utility unless ascetic is lynched. NK prevention becomes an only if the jk targets the nk target, and town can count on 0% of this information. Honestly, I think this is the optimal roll for the setup because it relies almost exclusively on Day play with only a slight chance of PRs being immensely impactful, but still leaves scum with a lot to play around.
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Jingle
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Post Post #7  (ISO)  » Sun Dec 31, 2017 3:31 am

8 Player6x Town
2x Mafia

1 Cop
1 Jailkeeper
1 Roleblocker
1 Vanilla Cop (Investigates a target, if their target is Cop, Jailkeeper or Roleblocker they receive Non-Vanilla. Otherwise, they receive Vanilla.)
4x Vanilla

Roles randomized independently of alignment.

If town receives all PR's, Mafia chooses one of their own to become ascetic at the beginning of Night 1. Ascetic flips as goon.
Each scum can use a PR or Nightkill.
If scum receives two PR's, all Vanilla town are Uninformed 1x BPs that flip as vanilla town.

Roleblocker takes preference over JK should they cross target.


I believe this solves all of the issues regarding 0 and 2 scum power roles. I don't think it unduly changes the numbers for any of the 1 scum power role cases, though if anyone has a reason one of the cases is unbalanced I'm happy to listen. Otherwise I'll probably run it in the micro queue in the near future.
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mhsmith0
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Post Post #8  (ISO)  » Mon Jan 08, 2018 2:30 pm

Town randing jailkeeper and Roleblocker is potentially super strong even before giving all vanilla townies a free BP. Jailkeeper alone can carry mountainous games, so if scum can’t block, that can get really messy really fast.
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Mathdino
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Post Post #9  (ISO)  » Fri Jan 12, 2018 6:33 pm

Okay let's see, some quick stats.

If scum receive 2 PRs, there are 6C2 = 15 distributions (of PR vs not PR) for town.
If scum receive 1 PR, there are 2C1 * 6C3 = 2*20 = 40 distributions among scum and town.
If scum receive no PRs, there are 6C4 = 15 distributions for town.

Probabilities are then 3/14 to 4/7 to 3/14.

In the first setup, if a given person claims VT, there's a 100% chance of being town.
In the second setup, if a given person claims VT, there's a 1/4 chance of being scum.
In the third setup, if a given person claims VT, there's a 1/2 chance of being scum.

Expected value of lynching VT claims is 1/4*4/7 + 1/2*3/14 = 1/7+3/28 = 1/4.

Unless someone scumclaims or starts a counterclaim it seems like Vanilla Cop claim + VT-only-massclaim followed by D1 VT lynch is correct. PRs should probably not specific claim.

A. D1 scum lynch. If one of the VTs is scum, they're ascetic already. Cop and Vanilla Cop can both check for asceticism. I think JK should 50/50 jail the cop or jail the roleblocker. Roleblocker should 50/50 block the JK or block the Cop. I'm pretty sure something along these lines will ultimately semi-break the setup. If either Cop or Vanilla Cop gets results on a VT, that one is confirmed town. Scum's inability to actually use their PR significantly hampers them. Scum loss.

B. D1 town lynch. Vanilla Cop is useless except to check for asceticism. Cop, JK, and RBer check remaining VTs (create a list to WIFOM the NK). Vanilla Cop should probably random among the VTs.

B1. No kill. If Vanilla Cop receives no result, lynch their target and then JK or RBer if townflip. If Cop gets a guilty, lynch the guilty then the cop if townflip. Otherwise, lynch a JK/RBer target (Cop now has an innocent, meaning scumteam is either Cop/his innocent or is neither). Scumflip on any of these scenarios disintegrates scum.
Townflip on JK/RB target leaves Cop, VC, JK, RB, cop innocent, and JK/RB target. At least one PR must be scum. I'd have to think more about this situation.

B2. VT kill. One of the VTs MUST be scum (otherwise BP vest). Creates a 50/50 MyLo situation.

B3. PR kill. Not gonna go through the list.

Seems like a lot of situations lead to scum being utterly fucked.


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