I'm a little feverish now, but I had an idea for a game to throw into the mostly empty Micro queue and wanted a quick and dirty balance analysis before deciding whether to scrap it or move forward.
Any obviously breaking strategies/setup issues I'm overlooking?
If scum don't get RB or JK there is a pretty good chance with 6/2 town can get an extra misslynch.
They can get three theoretically. Which is rough with an investigate as well.
Town has shown to be able to win 7/2 vanilla (its still scumsided but I feel relevant bc its the same amount of misslynches), stick in effectively no scum power and three useful town PR it can go pear shaped hard for scum even with perfect day play, which is generally a sign of an unfair setup.
Keep the setup the same but let scum draft a role. Town gets more power to make up the numbers disadvantage and scum don't have a chance of getting really badly screwed.
PEDIT: Thats not a bad move except then there are three ways for town to find scum. JK forfeits the investigation aspect bc you could have stopped killer or target.
I lean against having the scum draft a role. Not only does it fundamentally change the style of the game (WIFOM of role selection instead of roles being wholly null) it could lead to an unfortunate situation of lynching one scum and having a ridiculously small lynch pool. Particularly a goon flip means that scum can’t afford to shoot prs and can’t afford not to shoot prs, making the game functionally unwinnable day 1.
I’ll think about it a little more and maybe post some numbers tonight. Tracker could maybe become rolecop, but jk and rb together helps to prevent any hard innos/guilties.
Thanks for the feedback guys. I’ll see what I can do to fix the setup. Honestly I was more worried about scum getting two roles and stomping because of it.
Okay, I'm not gonna do analysis for every case, because there are a ton of them and I frankly don't have that kind of time. Most of the 1v3's seem pretty balanced to me on the premise that it's not a drafted pick. I'll look at the cop one particularly, the best case scenario for scum (JK AND RB) and the no PRs for scum case right now for ease of my mind.
I'll do the ascetic later, cause I have to leave five minutes ago, but basically, the ascetic is immune to cop and tracker as long as rb and jk are alive because rb OR jk targeting and lying about it (or actually targeting) is more immediately likely than them being the ascetic. Cop becomes most important town power. RB is negative utility unless ascetic is lynched. NK prevention becomes an only if the jk targets the nk target, and town can count on 0% of this information. Honestly, I think this is the optimal roll for the setup because it relies almost exclusively on Day play with only a slight chance of PRs being immensely impactful, but still leaves scum with a lot to play around.
I believe this solves all of the issues regarding 0 and 2 scum power roles. I don't think it unduly changes the numbers for any of the 1 scum power role cases, though if anyone has a reason one of the cases is unbalanced I'm happy to listen. Otherwise I'll probably run it in the micro queue in the near future.
Town randing jailkeeper and Roleblocker is potentially super strong even before giving all vanilla townies a free BP. Jailkeeper alone can carry mountainous games, so if scum can’t block, that can get really messy really fast.
http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
If scum receive 2 PRs, there are 6C2 = 15 distributions (of PR vs not PR) for town.
If scum receive 1 PR, there are 2C1 * 6C3 = 2*20 = 40 distributions among scum and town.
If scum receive no PRs, there are 6C4 = 15 distributions for town.
Probabilities are then 3/14 to 4/7 to 3/14.
In the first setup, if a given person claims VT, there's a 100% chance of being town.
In the second setup, if a given person claims VT, there's a 1/4 chance of being scum.
In the third setup, if a given person claims VT, there's a 1/2 chance of being scum.
Expected value of lynching VT claims is 1/4*4/7 + 1/2*3/14 = 1/7+3/28 = 1/4.
Unless someone scumclaims or starts a counterclaim it seems like Vanilla Cop claim + VT-only-massclaim followed by D1 VT lynch is correct. PRs should probably not specific claim.
A. D1 scum lynch. If one of the VTs is scum, they're ascetic already. Cop and Vanilla Cop can both check for asceticism. I think JK should 50/50 jail the cop or jail the roleblocker. Roleblocker should 50/50 block the JK or block the Cop. I'm pretty sure something along these lines will ultimately semi-break the setup. If either Cop or Vanilla Cop gets results on a VT, that one is confirmed town. Scum's inability to actually use their PR significantly hampers them. Scum loss.
B. D1 town lynch. Vanilla Cop is useless except to check for asceticism. Cop, JK, and RBer check remaining VTs (create a list to WIFOM the NK). Vanilla Cop should probably random among the VTs.
B1. No kill. If Vanilla Cop receives no result, lynch their target and then JK or RBer if townflip. If Cop gets a guilty, lynch the guilty then the cop if townflip. Otherwise, lynch a JK/RBer target (Cop now has an innocent, meaning scumteam is either Cop/his innocent or is neither). Scumflip on any of these scenarios disintegrates scum.
Townflip on JK/RB target leaves Cop, VC, JK, RB, cop innocent, and JK/RB target. At least one PR must be scum. I'd have to think more about this situation.
B2. VT kill. One of the VTs MUST be scum (otherwise BP vest). Creates a 50/50 MyLo situation.
B3. PR kill. Not gonna go through the list.
Seems like a lot of situations lead to scum being utterly fucked.
"I just want to play mafia, not Economics Wonderland." - cytheflyguy