No lynching is not an option and, should the day come to an end without a majority being reached, the person with the highest vote count will be lynched.
Each scum team consists entirely of goons. 1 factional kill per team and each team has a separate PT that is open day and night.
Each townie is a PGO who kills anyone and everyone who shoots them during the night. This does not mean they will survive though. Additionally, if the town’s numbers are ever reduced to 1, the last remaining townie will gain a permanent bulletproof.
I have done some maths to calculate win chances for each team. I’m not too sure how accurate the maths is, and it probably is waaaaay off, but I think the current win chances are 36% per scum team and 28% for the town. I also did maths for a version where townies always have bulletproof protection and their win chances are boosted to 48% in that game whereas scum's chances are dropped to 26% each.
Obviously, the maths in itself won't be an accurate reflection of how the game turns out. Especially since it doesn’t take into account things such as reads, associations, deciding not to kill, and how teams won’t shoot the same bulletproof townie twice. But isolating the setup to just the roles and assuming all kills and lynches have a random target, I believe the win ratio is 28%:36%:36%. If someone could double check that then I’d appreciate it.
This game heavily relies on day play (as do many games but this setup emphasises it). The objective for each scum team is to manipulate the townies into lynching a member of the other scum team. However, at the same time, they must avoid forming associations with their own team and have to balance their bussing and pushes. Everyone is pressingly aware that most people are going to be scum, however, at the same time, everyone will have to maintain the idea that they are town in order to manipulate the townies and to keep the other scum team from figuring out what their team is. Attempting to buddy a player is also quite risky as the opposing team will probably know if the buddying is fake.
The town’s objective is simple scum hunting with the additional task of associations. If a townie can either figure out who their other townies are or can correctly identify an entire scum team then they will be in a very strong position.
Due to the difficulty in hiding associations, I think the game will be more town-sided than the maths suggests (which is why I think 28:36:36% is better than 48:26:26% but feel free to argue that I'm wrong). In concept, I think the current state of this game is fairly balanced. However, I fear that associations may turn the game into a simple shoot off as townies decide the swing of the lynches. There’s also the fact that a bulletproof townie would become aware that they are the only townie left and town cannot win with 1 player left. This could become very demotivational for them and could be another way the game turns into a shoot off. Overall, despite the good balance for a multiball in concept, this may be an awful idea.
- Mass claim is not a strategy that exists in this game since there is only 1 town role (kinda essential for multiball balance IMO).
- Lynching the final townie means that nothing can stop whichever faction has the most players from winning. Point for debate:If both factions have an equal amount of players, how does the game progress? I think this would trigger a game end with a tie between the 2 scum teams being declared.
- I don't consider this game too swingy. Even with 1 player left, a scum team could potentially come back to win the game if their day play is good enough to make the other scum team not suspect them and hence shoot actual townies. Of course, a 5v1 is heavily in favour of the 5. However, since 3 players can die in a single day/night cycle, the 1 is still in with a chance of taking the victory.
- Killing a townie is still beneficial to scum as it increases the amount of time they have to eliminate the other scum team.
When it comes to the town's power and all mafia just being goons, I'm willing to change this around a bit for balance purposes or to make the night kills less predictable. Should the mafia have a strongman, a doctor? Should townies be compulsive bodyguards, should they be vengeful? That sort of thing. To maintain balance though, I think any additional abilities the mafia have should be factional.
Here are some things that should stay the same though:
- The setup should be 3 town vs 5 scum A vs 5 scum B.
- Scum always wins by eliminating the other scum faction and town wins by gaining a majority.
- All townies should have exactly the same role.
- Scum should always face a penalty for shooting town.
So what are your thoughts on this setup, Is it a stupid idea or is it worth running a few times? Considering this is multiball, do you think it is balanced for what it is? Is my maths completely wrong (if so, could you teach me how to properly calculate win probabilities of games)? Whatever your thoughts and opinions, I look forward to reading them.