What are the flaws in this setup?

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What are the flaws in this setup?

Post Post #0 (ISO) » Tue Feb 20, 2018 11:39 am

Post by LicketyQuickety »

Town:
Doctor X2
VT X7
Mafia:
Goon X2 with a 1-shot strongman
Werewolf:
Werewolf X2 with a 1-shot strongman

Could someone analyze this setup and tell me what you think?
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Post Post #1 (ISO) » Tue Feb 20, 2018 12:02 pm

Post by Gamma Emerald »

looks like a fire and ice semi-clone
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Post Post #2 (ISO) » Tue Feb 20, 2018 12:04 pm

Post by LicketyQuickety »

In post 1, Gamma Emerald wrote:looks like a fire and ice semi-clone
Is it the exact same setup?

Let me check.

It's not.

How does this compare to Fire and Ice?
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Post Post #3 (ISO) » Tue Feb 20, 2018 12:22 pm

Post by Gamma Emerald »

only town power is protective
two scum factions
there's some unique-ness but that's the one I'd compare to
honestly this seems a bit townsided, I can see the checks put in place but I'm worried about what happens if they fail.
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Post Post #4 (ISO) » Wed Feb 21, 2018 11:12 am

Post by LicketyQuickety »

In post 3, Gamma Emerald wrote:only town power is protective
two scum factions
there's some unique-ness but that's the one I'd compare to
honestly this seems a bit townsided, I can see the checks put in place but I'm worried about what happens if they fail.
Mafia has to play with the werewolves and vise versa. They have to play a meta game within the game, which is why I think this is interesting.

I have no clue what the EV would be for Town, nor do I know how one would calculate it. Would be interesting if someone did take the time to do this.

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Post Post #5 (ISO) » Wed Feb 21, 2018 11:32 am

Post by mith »

EV for Multiball setups gets difficult in a hurry even for Vanilla games, never mind with abilities. See [EV] Vanilla Multiball if you want to break your brain again.
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Post Post #6 (ISO) » Wed Feb 21, 2018 1:44 pm

Post by LicketyQuickety »

In post 5, mith wrote:EV for Multiball setups gets difficult in a hurry even for Vanilla games, never mind with abilities. See [EV] Vanilla Multiball if you want to break your brain again.
I noticed you simplified the calculations to only where it matters in that thread. If your 2:1:1 is changed to 9:2:2 this changes the dynamic completely. I assume the equivalent of 2:1:1 with 2:2 would be 4:2:2, but I can't even be sure if that is correct since it very well could be 8:2:2 or 6:2:2 as the equivalent. This makes breaking down the setup I proposed into only simplest terms beyond my understanding.

I guess you answered what was "wrong" with the setup, lol.

Ironically enough, I prefer mountainous games for their predictability. This is felt as more focussed on Scumhunting in practice because you don't have roles like cop to pick up the slack.

What has happened to the mafia landscape since its inception? Is it even the same game anymore?
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Post Post #7 (ISO) » Wed Feb 21, 2018 1:53 pm

Post by LicketyQuickety »

This answers the question of what the equivalent of 2:1:1 would be for X:2:2:
In post 13, mith wrote:(Interestingly, X:X:cX has roughly the same balance for X=1 to 4; 40% exactly at 1:1:4, up to 40.7% at 4:4:16, for c=4. I suspect X:X:cX setups will converge to the 2X:cX Nightless value for large X., so X:X:4X would converge to 50% exactly. Far too lazy to prove that right now, though.)
So it would be an inverse type of calculation with something like 8:2:2 with 2 Doctors. It gets ridiculously complicated adding the Strong Man's though.

I think it would be more appropriate to calculate for 4:2:2 with 2 Docs. No idea how many Town would be needed for 2 Doc's and 1 Strongman a piece for bother Scum factions with a x:2:2 setup though.
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Post Post #8 (ISO) » Wed Feb 21, 2018 1:57 pm

Post by Gamma Emerald »

not really imo? basically the strongmans create this process
does scumteam X use their strongman?
if yes strongman is expended, target always dies
if not it remains there and doc protection is factored in
Honestly I kinda want to create a code for determining EV of vanilla setups in Java or smth
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Post Post #9 (ISO) » Wed Feb 21, 2018 2:10 pm

Post by LicketyQuickety »

In post 8, Gamma Emerald wrote:not really imo? basically the strongmans create this process
does scumteam X use their strongman?
if yes strongman is expended, target always dies
if not it remains there and doc protection is factored in
Honestly I kinda want to create a code for determining EV of vanilla setups in Java or smth
You are only taking into account that there is one Scum Team. If there are 2 Scum teams, then if Doc claims then we get a prisoners dilemma and this is just the beginning stage of the first occurance where it matters to calculate EV (I think). Mafia and Werewolves have to out guess each other on whether to use their strongman on the Doc claim or not. Obviously the only people who are not going to claim Doc are going to be VT which then confirms them as Town, which then regresses into Scum occasionally not claiming Doc. Then the coup de gras is that Scum don't have to even NK the would be Lynchie. Effectively, you could operate in this game as though it was mountainous, since claims then really make no difference at all in practice.

I think I would like to run a setup like the one I proposed at some point.
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Post Post #10 (ISO) » Wed Feb 21, 2018 2:46 pm

Post by Gamma Emerald »

A test run would be very helpful imo, yeah
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Post Post #11 (ISO) » Wed Feb 21, 2018 3:56 pm

Post by LicketyQuickety »

In post 10, Gamma Emerald wrote:A test run would be very helpful imo, yeah
Done!

Taking pre-ins
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Post Post #12 (ISO) » Wed Feb 21, 2018 4:18 pm

Post by mith »

Also keep in mind that the Doctors don’t only affect EV by preventing kills (which actually matters less in Multiball, and already doesn’t matter much in single faction). The bigger effect is that they are a named role that can be claimed. In this particular setup, both Doctors claiming and protecting each other is very powerful, and scum counterclaiming puts them at a significant disadvantage relative to the other group. I would guess best strategy for both groups is to try to take out the other and save the strongman to break the Docs when the other group is gone. I expect this is very townsided with optimal play by all sides (though bad play by one scum group could bump up the other significantly).
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Post Post #13 (ISO) » Wed Feb 21, 2018 4:21 pm

Post by mith »

FWIW, back in the early days we played a 3:3:4 setup (including at the first scummeet in 2005) where all town were 1-shot Docs. Multiball is self-balancing to some degree.
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Post Post #14 (ISO) » Wed Feb 21, 2018 4:45 pm

Post by LicketyQuickety »

In post 12, mith wrote:Also keep in mind that the Doctors don’t only affect EV by preventing kills (which actually matters less in Multiball, and already doesn’t matter much in single faction). The bigger effect is that they are a named role that can be claimed. In this particular setup, both Doctors claiming and protecting each other is very powerful, and scum counterclaiming puts them at a significant disadvantage relative to the other group. I would guess best strategy for both groups is to try to take out the other and save the strongman to break the Docs when the other group is gone. I expect this is very townsided with optimal play by all sides (though bad play by one scum group could bump up the other significantly).
So... Both docs claim and Mafia/Werewolves can all claim.. basically. You could end up with 6 people claiming Doc. It ends up being kind of a crapshoot in how I am envisioning this. If Town gets lucky and lynches Scum, then that Scum team is at a huge disadvantage. I don't see how Town prevents a Mass claim of Docs.

In the setup I am running in the Micro queue, there are 3 VT instead of 2 or 4. This gives Mafia the option to let one of their members NOT claim Doc...
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Post Post #15 (ISO) » Wed Feb 21, 2018 5:10 pm

Post by mith »

You misunderstand what I'm saying - it is not optimal for any scum to claim in that situation (at least, that's my intuition). It's a Prisoner's Dilemma situation (as is multiball in general); just as scum want to shoot other scum first (if they have a choice they want to eliminate the other group before killing town at all - in a perfect knowledge situation, this leads to a town win), they also don't want to be the group that counters Doc (it only helps the other group).

In particular, if *all* scum claimed Doc, there are three confirmed VT and town should win easily (they'd have to be very unlucky for scum to even get close to winning).

The town's EV is likely worst if there is one counter from each group; but from the scum perspective, if I think there will be one counter from the other group, it's better for ours not to counter at all. If both groups reason that way, neither will counter and there are two confirmed Docs protecting each other. (Again, intuition. I could be totally wrong and one counter is best in all cases.)
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Post Post #16 (ISO) » Wed Feb 21, 2018 5:34 pm

Post by LicketyQuickety »

In post 15, mith wrote:You misunderstand what I'm saying - it is not optimal for any scum to claim in that situation (at least, that's my intuition). It's a Prisoner's Dilemma situation (as is multiball in general); just as scum want to shoot other scum first (if they have a choice they want to eliminate the other group before killing town at all - in a perfect knowledge situation, this leads to a town win), they also don't want to be the group that counters Doc (it only helps the other group).

In particular, if *all* scum claimed Doc, there are three confirmed VT and town should win easily (they'd have to be very unlucky for scum to even get close to winning).

The town's EV is likely worst if there is one counter from each group; but from the scum perspective, if I think there will be one counter from the other group, it's better for ours not to counter at all. If both groups reason that way, neither will counter and there are two confirmed Docs protecting each other. (Again, intuition. I could be totally wrong and one counter is best in all cases.)
I see. So, if I have this right, you are saying in the case where all Scum claim Doc, this forces Scum to have to kill confirmed VT first? Sorry for putting it a different way, I am just trying to see more of the angles of this.

In the case with one Scum member claiming Doc and the other claiming VT, this gives 5 VT claims and 4 Doc Claims. So it would be better to lynch in the Doc claims because Town has the best chance of Lynching Scum that way. I guess the way I see it is as a prisoners dilemma, truely, because on the one hand you would have a better chance to lynch Scum lynching in the Doc claims but at the risk of lynching a PR, which makes it a not so easy call IMO. I guess I would go back to what would be the EV for 5 VT claims and 4 Doc claims? IDK how complicated that would be to figure out because the two options are just not synonymous with each other. I guess it really depends on how Scum view their chances of one Scum member claiming. I can see the angle where Scum wouldn't want to give away anything by forcing one of their own to claim, but it seems initially to me that Scum isn't putting themselves out there too much doing this. But I guess coming down to play, if Doc claims in their first post, that is going to force Scum to act very quickly. I will say that in my games that I mod, I usually allow Scum to discuss things during the proverbial N0 while They wait for everyone to confirm their role so the game can actually start. Along with Scum acting quickly, they also have the option to out-wait the other Scum team to force the other Scum team to claim first so they don't have to. But I would say there
should
be at least 3 Doc claims. Ofc when I talk about time, this is completely separate from EV analysis.
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Post Post #17 (ISO) » Wed Feb 21, 2018 5:49 pm

Post by mith »

I think you’re still not following, but I want to think about this some more anyway. I’m coming around to the one claim each strategy.
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Post Post #18 (ISO) » Wed Feb 21, 2018 5:54 pm

Post by LicketyQuickety »

In post 17, mith wrote:I think you’re still not following, but I want to think about this some more anyway. I’m coming around to the one claim each strategy.
TBH, I am bad at following. Never been one to sheep. I should probably address that at some point...
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Post Post #19 (ISO) » Thu Feb 22, 2018 11:00 am

Post by mith »

To simplify things, let's just talk about the basic Prisoner's Dilemma situation. Consider that we are in some game state, and there is some action that each scum group can either take or not take (independently of one another). This could be something like "fake claiming Doctor" or "shooting confirmed Townies" or "using strongman on a confirmed Doctor" or whatever else.

Consider the following (example) outcomes:

Neither group takes action: Really good for town, really bad for both scum groups (say 80-10-10 in terms of EV percentages)
Both groups take action: Less good for town, less bad for both scum groups (say 40-30-30)
Only group A takes action: Moderately good for town, really bad for group A, good for group B (say 60-5-35)
Only group B takes action: Moderately good for town, good for group A, really bad for group B (say 60-35-5)

If both groups were able/willing to cooperate, the 40-30-30 is best combined result! However, regardless of what the other group does, each group is better off if it does nothing. For example, if B takes action, then A gets a 30 if it also takes action, but a 35 if it doesn't. If B doesn't take action, A gets a 5 if it does but a 10 if it doesn't.

The argument I was making yesterday is basically this: that whether or not group B offers one fake claim, A may be better off not fake claiming; the reverse is also true, that B is better off not fake claiming. If that's true, then neither should fake claim, which leaves town in the amazing position of having two confirmed Doctors. (There are further PD situations in what the scum groups should do afterward, of course.)

(I am no longer convinced that the claiming strategy is actually a Prisoner's Dilemma, though. It may be best for each group to claim once.)
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Post Post #20 (ISO) » Thu Feb 22, 2018 11:55 am

Post by LicketyQuickety »

I'm confused, admittedly.

You detail why it's bad for any given Scum to do any particular action, but then at the end of the post you say it may be better for them to have a single Scum claim Doc from each Scum team...

I have no idea how you arrived at this...
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Post Post #21 (ISO) » Thu Feb 22, 2018 12:33 pm

Post by mith »

I'm detailing why it's bad for scum to do those actions
if
the outcomes are such that it is a Prisoner's Dilemma.

As of post 17, I am not convinced that the particular case we were discussing (whether scum should fake claim) actually has a Prisoner's Dilemma payoff.

Imma stop trying to explain this now. :)
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Post Post #22 (ISO) » Thu Feb 22, 2018 12:50 pm

Post by LicketyQuickety »

In post 21, mith wrote:I'm detailing why it's bad for scum to do those actions
if
the outcomes are such that it is a Prisoner's Dilemma.

As of post 17, I am not convinced that the particular case we were discussing (whether scum should fake claim) actually has a Prisoner's Dilemma payoff.

Imma stop trying to explain this now. :)
Ugh, you didn't explain how you arrived at the conclusion that it's not a prisoners dilemma..
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Post Post #23 (ISO) » Thu Feb 22, 2018 12:52 pm

Post by mith »

That's because I haven't arrived at that conclusion yet. I'm not convinced that it *is* a Prisoner's Dilemma, but I'm not sure it isn't either. I need to crunch numbers.
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Post Post #24 (ISO) » Thu Feb 22, 2018 12:56 pm

Post by LicketyQuickety »

In post 23, mith wrote:That's because I haven't arrived at that conclusion yet. I'm not convinced that it *is* a Prisoner's Dilemma, but I'm not sure it isn't either. I need to crunch numbers.
Thanks for giving my idea some attention. Doesn't happen often. I hope you will give those numbers when you arrive at them.
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