[SETUP] Extradition Mafia

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[SETUP] Extradition Mafia

Post Post #0 (ISO) » Tue Apr 17, 2018 9:01 am

Post by mith »

3 Mafia Goons
10 Vanilla Town

Each Night, in addition to killing, one of the Mafia Goons escapes. The Mafia win by all members escaping, while the Town wins with one successful lynch.

(Flavor-wise: they catch a Goon and get them to flip on their team, and any escaped Goons are extradited back. If they all escape, there is no one to flip for evidence; something like that, I'm really struggling to come up with a good name today, and I'm not married to it).

EV for this particular count is 47.25%. This one has a pretty fun EV curve, which is sort of the inverse of the Bus Stop; a lylo setup is close to 50-50 (town only get one shot, but with the best lynch ratio they can hope for; e.g. 3:4 EV is 3/7 = 42.86%), and town EV grows initially as they add more townies (3:6 is 70.37%, as they get up to three attempts with 1/3 probability each; the best town EV is always at M:2M for this reason), but then starts to decrease as they don't add attempts but do reduce the probability for each (3:10 is only 3/13, 2:8 is 2/10, and 1:6 is 1/7)

This has the anti-busing of some of my other setups, but Mafia is compensated nicely by being able to remove their scummier members off the board (while town is guaranteed information each day in the form of a scum flip and 2 town flips).
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Post Post #1 (ISO) » Tue Apr 17, 2018 9:03 am

Post by RadiantCowbells »

This intrigues me greatly
2019 stats: Town WR 76.7%, overall WR 81.667%, 1 scum defeat involving a major mod error in lylo vs 8 scum wins.
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Post Post #2 (ISO) » Tue Apr 17, 2018 10:04 am

Post by mith »

Yeah, I quite like it. It's very loosely inspired by EmpKing's Simple Mafia concept of a forced scum death by Night 2.
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Post Post #3 (ISO) » Tue Apr 17, 2018 11:44 am

Post by Sukima »

Are kills mandatory or are you allowed to no-kill to widen the pool of people for mislynching?
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Post Post #4 (ISO) » Tue Apr 17, 2018 12:47 pm

Post by mith »

Kills are mandatory.

(Lynches are not, but no-lynch is strictly worse for town.)
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Post Post #5 (ISO) » Tue Apr 17, 2018 1:04 pm

Post by implosion »

This looks kind of brutal. In terms of strategy there's IMO plenty of room for bussing - you just make the least charismatic mafia member hardbus one of the others and then flee :p. On the one hand it kind of feels brutal for scum because they can't afford a single fuck-up; one bad member can entirely sink the team if they get lynched d1. The setup might be vulnerable to scum lurking through d1 and then fleeing, especially. But on the other hand it's brutal for town because they have to kind of work from scratch each day, with the potential wifom of "did the scummiest scum flee?"

It is definitely very intriguing.
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Post Post #6 (ISO) » Tue Apr 17, 2018 2:47 pm

Post by northsidegal »

it seems to me like day one would be the most important for town. the scum players most likely to get lynched will presumably be the first to escape, leaving only the stronger scum players as scum gets to kill the stronger or more dangerous town players.
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Post Post #7 (ISO) » Wed Apr 18, 2018 8:25 am

Post by mith »

Yeah, it's kinda brutal both ways.
I'm curious if a "Town must lynch two scum to win" condition can be made to work. It would obviously require a higher number of chances.


Here's a version that it incredibly well balanced, considering I just went with my gut to start with:

Extradition Mafia 2: Corroborating Witness


5 Mafia Goons
8 Vanilla Town

If Mafia is lynched, they must kill a Townie (Vengescum). If Town is lynched, one Mafia must flee (needs a modifier name). Mafia win if 4 members flee, Town wins if 2 Mafia are lynched.

EV is 50.08%, if I got it in the spreadsheet correctly. My script isn't really set up for this kind of thing yet.
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Post Post #8 (ISO) » Wed Apr 18, 2018 8:30 am

Post by RadiantCowbells »

In post 6, northsidegal wrote:it seems to me like day one would be the most important for town. the scum players most likely to get lynched will presumably be the first to escape, leaving only the stronger scum players as scum gets to kill the stronger or more dangerous town players.
What if scum get two nightkills but one has to be selected off of a list of 3 people that the town votes on?
2019 stats: Town WR 76.7%, overall WR 81.667%, 1 scum defeat involving a major mod error in lylo vs 8 scum wins.
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Post Post #9 (ISO) » Wed Apr 18, 2018 8:30 am

Post by RadiantCowbells »

I think as it it's going to be scumsided in practise; I wouldn't mind giving town more 'sorta' mislynches
2019 stats: Town WR 76.7%, overall WR 81.667%, 1 scum defeat involving a major mod error in lylo vs 8 scum wins.
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Post Post #10 (ISO) » Wed Apr 18, 2018 9:47 am

Post by implosion »

In post 7, mith wrote:Yeah, it's kinda brutal both ways.
I'm curious if a "Town must lynch two scum to win" condition can be made to work. It would obviously require a higher number of chances.


Here's a version that it incredibly well balanced, considering I just went with my gut to start with:

Extradition Mafia 2: Corroborating Witness


5 Mafia Goons
8 Vanilla Town

If Mafia is lynched, they must kill a Townie (Vengescum). If Town is lynched, one Mafia must flee (needs a modifier name). Mafia win if 4 members flee, Town wins if 2 Mafia are lynched.

EV is 50.08%, if I got it in the spreadsheet correctly. My script isn't really set up for this kind of thing yet.
Very similar to perpetual MYLO.
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Post Post #11 (ISO) » Wed Apr 18, 2018 9:57 am

Post by mith »

I don't find that a particularly elegant solution. (And it would be very slow in practice.) Another idea would be for town to vote each day on someone to protect from the nightkill, to force the scum away from the towniest person, or vote on someone to watch who can't flee, to force scum away from the scummiest person. Or both. (Probably not both, for the same reason a list of 3 isn't great.)

And yeah, Corroborating Witness had perpetual mylo and other such "points" based games in mind (there was a bit of this in the last California Trilogy game, way back when). Another twist along those lines is to alternate between town trying to lynch Mafia and town trying to pick Town:

Best of Five Mafia


5 Mafia Goons
8 Vanilla Town

On odd days, if Mafia is lynched, Town scores a point and Mafia must kill a Townie at night; if Town is lynched, Mafia scores a point and one Mafia must flee.
On even days, if Town is elected, Town scores a point and one Mafia must flee; if Mafia is elected, Mafia scores a point and must kill a Townie at night.
Both fleeing and elected players are removed from the game.
First to three points wins.

EV is 40.54% as is. If you instead allow Town two chances on D5 (two players are lynched, and Town scores if either is Mafia), EV is 48.61%.

(In some ways this is a melding of perpetual mylo and The Resistance.)
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Post Post #12 (ISO) » Wed Apr 18, 2018 10:00 am

Post by implosion »

i don't think a low EV for a setup like that is concerning. I think you want it to have a low EV, because the town's collective best scum and town reads are both very valuable and I'd expect that to swing it a bit townsided in practice.
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Post Post #13 (ISO) » Wed Apr 18, 2018 11:24 am

Post by mith »

I don't disagree. Town has a lot of information D5, if it gets to that point, to compensate for the 1/5 random lynch success rate.

For reference, 5:7 Perpetual Mylo only has an EV of 24.13%, unless town is allowed to no lynch and force a scum kill to restore parity (effectively 5:6 Perpetual Lylo, 33.81%).
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Post Post #14 (ISO) » Wed Apr 18, 2018 6:56 pm

Post by Gamma Emerald »

In post 8, RadiantCowbells wrote:
In post 6, northsidegal wrote:it seems to me like day one would be the most important for town. the scum players most likely to get lynched will presumably be the first to escape, leaving only the stronger scum players as scum gets to kill the stronger or more dangerous town players.
What if scum get two nightkills but one has to be selected off of a list of 3 people that the town votes on?
Sorta an adaptation of jungle oligarchy I guess?
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Post Post #15 (ISO) » Thu Apr 19, 2018 12:46 pm

Post by BBmolla »

Best of five is definitely better
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