## [SETUP] The Odds (Variant)

This forum is for discussion of individual Open Setups, including theoretical balance.
BulletNLynchproof

Joined: September 16, 2015
Location: EDT+12
Pronoun: He
Based on Ether's The Odds, I thought of a similar setup, but instead of tying probabilities to each player's alignment, we tie it to the possible scumteams instead:

 A B C D E F G H I A X 4 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 B X 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 C X 2 2 2 2 2 3 D X 2 2 2 2 3 E X 2 2 3 3 F X 4 3 3 G X 3 3 H X 5 I X

This is constructed somewhat arbitrarily for now, not sure how to make it more interesting, but the idea is there.

Roll a 1d75 (75 being the sum of everything in the table) to determine the scumteam.

Probability of each player being scum:

 Player Probability A 12/75 B 12/75 C 15/75 D 15/75 E 16/75 F 18/75 G 18/75 H 20/75 I 24/75
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mith
Godfather

Joined: March 27, 2002
Location: Plano, TX
Pronoun: He
I would stack it more toward certain pairs. The interesting thing about doing it with scumpairs is that the odds are different from each town player's perspective, since they know they are innocent and can rule out all those pairs. If you can set up a situation where several players have a most likely scum that is different from the pre-game probability, I think that would be a plus. Quick example:

Code: Select all
` 0    2    3    4    4    1    1    1    9      0    4    3    5    1    1    9    1           0    2    6    1    9    1    1                0    7    9    1    1    1                     0    1    2    3    4                          0    6    7    8                               0    8    7                                    0    6                                         0`

Here I is still most likely scum, but from A's perspective the most likely are H>G>F>E=I; from E's perspective, F=G=H=I; and from F's perspective, E>G=H=I.

(If you wanted to get really cute, you could assign 1s on the main diagonal, and if a player is "self-paired" they get to pick their partner.)

mith
Godfather

Joined: March 27, 2002
Location: Plano, TX
Pronoun: He
A more extreme example:

Code: Select all
`0    1    8    3    1    1    4    9    5     0    2    8    7    1    1    5    9          0    4    9    5    1    1    6               0    7    9    5    1    1                    0    3    9    3    1                         0    6   10    7                              0    8   10                                   0    9                                        0`

Here, I is the mostly likely scum, but only three players town players would think so (and only two, if I is in fact scum with one of those three).

mith
Godfather

Joined: March 27, 2002
Location: Plano, TX
Pronoun: He
There's not nearly as much of a spread in pre-game individual odds in these examples, though given how much info a scum flip would give maybe that's ok. (The second is particularly nice, because the pre-game odds are an arithmetic sequence from 8/45 to 12/45.)

BulletNLynchproof

Joined: September 16, 2015
Location: EDT+12
Pronoun: He
Hmm interesting, thanks for the input mith! I wasn't really sure how to make the probabilities that make the game interesting.

Also I'm definitely don't want the "choose your partner" thing.
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callforjudgement
Microprocessor

Joined: September 01, 2011
This reminds me a bit of the Scumteam UnPick setup by Creature (it's 6 town vs. 2 scum, pregame each player gets to bar two scumteams that don't include themself from being rolled, N1 is skipped but otherwise it's a normal day/night cycle, D1's flip is delayed until N2).
scum · scam · seam · team · term · tern · torn · town

mith
Godfather

Joined: March 27, 2002
Location: Plano, TX
Pronoun: He
That sounds interesting.

Rob14

Joined: October 05, 2012
Pronoun: He
In post 4, BulletNLynchproof wrote:Hmm interesting, thanks for the input mith! I wasn't really sure how to make the probabilities that make the game interesting.

Also I'm definitely don't want the "choose your partner" thing.

"Choose your partner" would basically be the same as assigning an extra unit of probability to the lowest probability pair, since optimal strategy (disregarding skill of the player list for a moment) would be to choose whomever is least likely to be your partner in order to throw town off the scent when there's a flip.

I agree this setup is really interesting.

Gamma Emerald
Diamond in the Rough

Joined: August 09, 2016
Pronoun: He
Is it at least balanced so each person has an equal chance of rolling scum?
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mith
Godfather

Joined: March 27, 2002
Location: Plano, TX
Pronoun: He
No; and that's kinda the point of The Odds type setups.

Gamma Emerald
Diamond in the Rough

Joined: August 09, 2016
Pronoun: He
I don’t like that being in a certain slot increases your odds of being scum. Unless the letters aren’t distributed by playerlist order I don’t like this idea.
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I have a GTKAS! | Old one if you care to see it

mith
Godfather

Joined: March 27, 2002
Location: Plano, TX
Pronoun: He
Then you wouldn't enjoy this setup (or The Odds). ~shrug~

You could do this type of setup while making the slots all have equal pre-game probability of being scum, but it wouldn't be as interesting. Ultimately, you would have the same problem on day 2 when players C and F flip town and everyone has different odds.

BulletNLynchproof

Joined: September 16, 2015
Location: EDT+12
Pronoun: He
In post 10, Gamma Emerald wrote:I don’t like that being in a certain slot increases your odds of being scum. Unless the letters aren’t distributed by playerlist order I don’t like this idea.

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Gamma Emerald
Diamond in the Rough

Joined: August 09, 2016
Pronoun: He
In post 12, BulletNLynchproof wrote:
In post 10, Gamma Emerald wrote:I don’t like that being in a certain slot increases your odds of being scum. Unless the letters aren’t distributed by playerlist order I don’t like this idea.

That is acceptable then
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Gamma Emerald
Diamond in the Rough

Joined: August 09, 2016
Pronoun: He
Though you'd need people to rank their preferences
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BulletNLynchproof

Joined: September 16, 2015
Location: EDT+12
Pronoun: He
I'm intending to run this again in the future, but I want to use different grids each time.

Here's something I came up with:

 A B C D E F G H I A X 6 8 2 3 2 8 3 4 B X 9 3 3 1 1 5 9 C X 2 1 4 6 7 2 D X 3 5 6 9 8 E X 7 9 7 7 F X 8 7 8 G X 1 2 H X 4 I X

Sum is still 180, probabilities are 36 37 39 38 40 42 41 43 44

I also want to put in a small power role this time, chosen uniformly randomly among all the townies after rolling the scumteam. Based on mith's role idea I'm thinking of making the PR a Town Deflector.

Thoughts on this new setup?
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