[SETUP] The Guardians

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[SETUP] The Guardians

Post Post #0 (ISO) » Tue Aug 28, 2018 4:15 pm

Post by BNL »

2 Mafia Goons
10 Vanilla Townies

Pregame and every Night, the Mafia choose 1/3 of the players to be Angels. The remaining players would be Guardians, and they will be assigned to the Angels so that each Angel has 2 Guardians.

There are two lynches every Day, however you cannot lynch an Angel unless you have already lynched one of its Guardians.

Lynching and killing is compulsive so as to maintain parity for the above mechanic.

If the game goes down to 3 players, the mechanic disables.
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Post Post #1 (ISO) » Tue Aug 28, 2018 4:55 pm

Post by callforjudgement »

This appears to be pure WIFOM from the scum point of view, so randomizing is probably the best option (maybe with a small bias to Mafia as Angels). That'd put the EV at the same point as Double Day that's disabled at 2:1, but I don't have that calculation to hand and am too tired to do it right now. It's probably fairly townsided though.

However, I suspect that this setup would suck to play for scum. A 4:2 ending seems quite winnable for town, for example (if I didn't screw up the calculation, the EV is 24%, which is crazily high for perfect-scum-play-so-far lylo in a game this large, and town will have a lot of associatives to help them along). Compare the 13% EV of a normal game's 3:2 lylo, or the 6% of a 4:3 lylo: those are the sort of endings we expect when scum are dominating. 24% after 4 mislynches is freakishly high, so scum will likely have the demoralising realisation that even if things go perfectly for them over the first couple of days, it still probably won't be enough.

The setup probably needs a third scum, but I'm not sure if there are numbers that work once you do that.
scum
· scam · seam · team · term · tern · torn ·
town
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Post Post #2 (ISO) » Tue Aug 28, 2018 5:59 pm

Post by BNL »

I was thinking 3 scum at first, but then I ran some calculations and saw that 3:9 double day is 28.0% and 2:10 is 47.7%

I've also realised that the past couple setups have been "Town have less options in lynching and scum have less options in killing", with this being slightly less restrictive. Is this idea good though? Should I scrap it altogether?
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Post Post #3 (ISO) » Wed Aug 29, 2018 11:37 am

Post by callforjudgement »

If 3:12 doesn't work, we probably have to scrap it on the basis of there being no set of numbers that play well. (That's an unfortunate issue with many setups, including all-vanilla.)
scum
· scam · seam · team · term · tern · torn ·
town
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